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Author Topic: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?  (Read 3964 times)

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2022, 02:14:22 AM »
Florida made significant changes to their election rules.  So did NC.  Pennsylvania and Michigan did not (they, in fact, increased the access to mail-in ballots).  AZ also did little to clean up their elections (in fact, the SOS is the Dem nominee for governor) .  This is why neither Fetterman nor Hobbs felt the need to debate... because you debate in order to convince voters to vote for you.  They didn't need to.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/09/big-picture-2020-midterm-elections-highlights-distinct-difference-between-ballots-and-votes/

Florida may screw some things up but you gotta give them props for counting ballots quickly. Those guys should be a model for the nation on how to get election results done on a timely basis.

jhkim

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2022, 02:34:35 AM »
Yes, Republicans dominated in states like Florida and Ohio, where they took real measures to cut down on Democrat fraud with their mail-in ballots, bloated voter rolls, ballot trafficking and manufacturing operations.

But states like California? New York? They will never turn Republican. Ever. No matter how bad things get.

Republicans believed they would have a great midterm. They forgot that America is now under the control of the Left.
New York some house seats flipped red, like more than three. California was weird due to a failed recall attempt, but red did okay there too all things considered. It’s not the end of the world, and if DeSantis takes the party primaries, which he is now positioned to potentially do, we can look forward to a solid boost in 2024.

Yeah. New York had 4 seats flip red, which is a huge deal. Florida only had 3 seats flip red.

That goes completely counter to Jaeger's narrative that victory is impossible in California and New York because victory is only possible because of anti-fraud measures.

It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.

Jaeger

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2022, 12:16:45 PM »
Quote from: link=topic=45492.msg1234454#msg1234454 date=1668058742
DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.

Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and John Kerry agree with this completely.
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Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2022, 12:25:24 PM »

jhkim

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2022, 02:29:19 PM »
With enemies like this, who needs friends?

"Trump Celebrates Republicans LOSING Key U.S. Senate Race"
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-trump-celebrates-republicans-losing-key-u-s-senate-race

With how much the democrats suck, the best thing they have going for them is still "Fuck Trump" since he's such an odious asshole. The Republicans would be in so much better shape today if Hillary had won in 2016, which would surely have lead to a massive red wave in 2020 due to her being comprehensively bad at politics.

Arguably his cheering of O'Shea's loss is parallel to your cheering for Hillary.

But yeah, it is a tricky split within Republicans. And attitudes towards Trump are strange on both sides. Notably, he got the mRNA covid vaccines developed at warp speed and approved for the American public, but neither side credits him with that.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #35 on: November 10, 2022, 02:41:38 PM »


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.
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Zelen

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2022, 02:44:05 PM »
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2022, 02:56:40 PM »
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?

Gaslighting implies telling you you're crazy when you're not crazy.

Calling out the "stole the election!" is calling crazy people crazy.

To be utterly clear, I called out tons of Democrats when they also were claiming "stole the election" many years ago.

All it is, is blaming the refs for your losses and refusing to take any responsibility for sucking.

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2022, 02:58:45 PM »


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2022, 03:02:42 PM »
Mistwell isn't wrong about the outright deniers who wanted impeachment or no certification underperforming. Likewise, even claiming that things like fraud were probably a decisive factor (raising doubts, which seems reasonable from my perspective) doesn't seem to have done as well. Republican voters were split on whether the election was stolen, and a quarter actually think no fraud. Among those who do believe, they were already fired up to vote it seems, but independents and moderates seem to have been turned lukewarm in some places, especially more competitive swing states and the like, by the claims. At least according to the different perspectives and analysis I've been tuning in to. Also, Democratic and left-voting turnout was allegedly motivated in exit polls and the like not only by abortion but also by perceived threats to democracy, especially in those races where denial was front and center. So they may have energized the enemy base a bit while somewhat splitting their own.

DocJones

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #40 on: November 10, 2022, 06:03:56 PM »
It's a red tidal wave.  No more money for Biden's stupid crap.


June 1st was much worse than Jan 6th
« Last Edit: November 10, 2022, 06:10:43 PM by DocJones »

DocJones

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #41 on: November 10, 2022, 06:42:10 PM »

Lee

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2022, 07:10:22 PM »
It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.

Don't worry.  I am sure it will be "fortified" at the 11th hour.  🤡
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KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2022, 07:23:43 PM »
It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.

It definitely looks more likely than it did on election night and immediately following. We're seeing a reverse of 2020 with red pulling out late game special/mail/late count/11th hour/whatever ballot count wins (ex: Arizona is getting less and less blue). But as far as the odds are concerned, House seems likely red (wasn't the night of), but Senate we'd need to win 2 out of 3 in places that were leaning blue in the standard elections at night's end, of which only one is at all currently red. And Nevada has votes coming in from the blue mail-in voters now to counter the red mail drop-box-ers that gave us lead overnight after blue was leading by over 3.5% when I went to bed past 1. I think a blue majority is more likely, more paths to victory. Also Georgia the run-off drops a high profile LGBTQ or what have you candidate who had 2% of the votes and was siphoning a bit from Warnock, who had the lead in the election against Walker despite that.

Regardless, if red gets less than 230 house seats (probable), the GOP is talking about a possible strategy/messaging change away from what they attempted following after 2020, under Trump. We'll see if that materializes, I guess.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2022, 07:44:19 PM by KindaMeh »

jeff37923

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2022, 10:08:31 PM »
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?

Yeah, but they are known to be liars and trolls by the forums.
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