Crimes Rates and other Trends

[tenbones]

The decline in crime in the last few decades, at least in the US, is tied to Roe vs. Wade. Of course no one will ever touch that.

Oh yes... that little piece of data is quite a "fun" rabbit-hole to go down.

As someone that worked as an EMT in the Rodney King riots... I can attest to the size and scope of the carnage. It made Kenosha look pretty tame by actual comparison. Of course if you live a non-megasprawl city, the scope of "crime" is probably lost on you by only looking at numbers.

When I was an EMT my first assignment was Inglewood CA, right in the hood. It made me realize how little my fellow citizens were blissfully unaware of how much violence was going on under their noses on a nightly basis. It wizened me to relative ignorance of people generally, very quickly. It was also a difficult thing to discuss with outs, while having to experience it nightly, and the toll it takes on a person. It's very isolating.

Anecdotal? Sure. But the reality is this: the same people doing the same shit for the same dumb fucking reasons, still continues. It might move to different locales, it might be insisted that the reasons are different (they're not), but it will continue because the people doing this stuff have no concept of morality, or ethics, or have any standards beyond self-gratification (generally speaking).

Leaving CA in the mid-90's for Texas was like leaving an home world for a place that I could scarcely believe was real. Then I realized *I* was the alien. I can't imagine what it's like to be from CA right now and come here... it must be mindblowing.

[Kyle Aaron]

It wizened me to relative ignorance of people generally, very quickly. It was also a difficult thing to discuss with outs, while having to experience it nightly, and the toll it takes on a person. It's very isolating.

The other side of that:

In A Writer's Guide to Violence, he mentions some career advice given to young cops, something like, "2% of people are scum, but if you spend 90% of your time with 2% of the people who are scum and those who have to work with them, you think 90% of people are scum. Have friends and hobbies outside the job."

I think that's probably good advice for paramedics and the like, too. It would be good advice for soldiers, but they don't really have a choice who they spend time with.

[Reckall]

I think that's probably good advice for paramedics and the like, too.

For how true this is just watch "Bringing out the Dead" by Martin Scorsese or read the book it was based on.

[tenbones]

I think that's probably good advice for paramedics and the like, too.

For how true this is just watch "Bringing out the Dead" by Martin Scorsese or read the book it was based on.

I've avoided re-watching that movie for decades. Seriously, it reminds me of those years and the stress I was in, it's "satire" that is horribly close to the truth. While Cage's performance is "over the top", it's not far from the mark.

There was a lot of self-medicating, self-loathing, and existential angst during that time and questionable, always questionable, choices made back then.

As an aside - if you can believe it - Cage and Sizemore had it *MUCH* better than I did. They had a really nice rig, and base of operations. I worked for an ambulance company that was based IN A MORTUARY (McCormick Ambulance was owned by McCormick Mortuary) and it was so ghetto that most here could not believe the working conditions. Granted this was in the late 80's, I'm sure standards have changed since then.

Metropolitan First Responder Services are ****light years**** different than the sub-urbs or smaller towns. This goes back to that 2% Kyle is talking about... when that 2% is tens of thousands of people crammed into the same shitty neighborhoods you service... yeah, it gets ugly real fast, every single night.

[Ghostmaker]

I think that's probably good advice for paramedics and the like, too.

For how true this is just watch "Bringing out the Dead" by Martin Scorsese or read the book it was based on.

I've avoided re-watching that movie for decades. Seriously, it reminds me of those years and the stress I was in, it's "satire" that is horribly close to the truth. While Cage's performance is "over the top", it's not far from the mark.

There was a lot of self-medicating, self-loathing, and existential angst during that time and questionable, always questionable, choices made back then.

As an aside - if you can believe it - Cage and Sizemore had it *MUCH* better than I did. They had a really nice rig, and base of operations. I worked for an ambulance company that was based IN A MORTUARY (McCormick Ambulance was owned by McCormick Mortuary) and it was so ghetto that most here could not believe the working conditions. Granted this was in the late 80's, I'm sure standards have changed since then.

Metropolitan First Responder Services are ****light years**** different than the sub-urbs or smaller towns. This goes back to that 2% Kyle is talking about... when that 2% is tens of thousands of people crammed into the same shitty neighborhoods you service... yeah, it gets ugly real fast, every single night.

Are you familiar with Kelly Grayson? He blogged extensively about his work as an EMT and would later compile stories into a book ('En Route: A Paramedic's Stories of Life, Death, and Everything In Between'). And that stuff was on the more cheerful, optimistic side.

[Kyle Aaron]

This goes back to that 2% Kyle is talking about... when that 2% is tens of thousands of people crammed into the same shitty neighborhoods you service... yeah, it gets ugly real fast, every single night.

As a gaming aside, over the years I've seen a lot of people scorn or ignore Classic Traveller's Social stat, and not many games have it. Those in the middle class like to pretend we're a classless society, but whatever Trading Places told us, if you take one of those 2%, clean them up and stick them in a suit at a reception at the White House, they will stand out - and pretty quickly be thrown out. On the other hand, put a Megan Markle or Elon Musk in that ghetto and they'd be dead by dawn, and would have suffered very, very horribly on the way there.

We may or may not want to include it in our games or fiction, but in reality socioeconomic class does matter.

[jhkim]

For how true this is just watch "Bringing out the Dead" by Martin Scorsese or read the book it was based on.

I've avoided re-watching that movie for decades. Seriously, it reminds me of those years and the stress I was in, it's "satire" that is horribly close to the truth. While Cage's performance is "over the top", it's not far from the mark.

There was a lot of self-medicating, self-loathing, and existential angst during that time and questionable, always questionable, choices made back then.

As an aside - if you can believe it - Cage and Sizemore had it *MUCH* better than I did. They had a really nice rig, and base of operations. I worked for an ambulance company that was based IN A MORTUARY (McCormick Ambulance was owned by McCormick Mortuary) and it was so ghetto that most here could not believe the working conditions. Granted this was in the late 80's, I'm sure standards have changed since then.

I've added the movie to my watchlist. Sadly, self-medication and bad choices continue. My girlfriend's new job is in an addiction center, and they're constantly dealing with people relapsing, in abusive relationships, and/or other problems. I don't know how it's changed for EMTs, but substance abuse has generally gotten worse.

[Shasarak]

I see that the US is finally going to charge parents for their childrens crimes so while there could be an initial spiking of the crime rate it should come down when parents start to realise that they have to take responsibility for other peoples actions.

I am not sure why it has taken so long for this obvious step to be taken.

[HappyDaze]

I see that the US is finally going to charge parents for their childrens crimes so while there could be an initial spiking of the crime rate it should come down when parents start to realise that they have to take responsibility for other peoples actions.

I am not sure why it has taken so long for this obvious step to be taken.

Seems very weird to charge parents for a child's crimes when the child is being tried as an adult.

[3catcircus]

I see that the US is finally going to charge parents for their childrens crimes so while there could be an initial spiking of the crime rate it should come down when parents start to realise that they have to take responsibility for other peoples actions.

I am not sure why it has taken so long for this obvious step to be taken.

Seems very weird to charge parents for a child's crimes when the child is being tried as an adult.

I think that they're trying to send the message that the parents did nothing to prevent the crime.  Kinda like charging the getaway driver with murder when the stickup man shoots and kills the clerk at the Kwik-E-Mart...

[Ghostmaker]

I see that the US is finally going to charge parents for their childrens crimes so while there could be an initial spiking of the crime rate it should come down when parents start to realise that they have to take responsibility for other peoples actions.

I am not sure why it has taken so long for this obvious step to be taken.

Seems very weird to charge parents for a child's crimes when the child is being tried as an adult.

I think that they're trying to send the message that the parents did nothing to prevent the crime.  Kinda like charging the getaway driver with murder when the stickup man shoots and kills the clerk at the Kwik-E-Mart...

That case is fucking weird anyways. The parents allegedly bought the kid the handgun, and when he was caught drawing weird shit and searching for ammo online on the school's network, his mom told him 'don't get caught next time'.

So it's not nearly as cut and dried as 'parents charged for child's misbehavior'.

[HappyDaze]

I see that the US is finally going to charge parents for their childrens crimes so while there could be an initial spiking of the crime rate it should come down when parents start to realise that they have to take responsibility for other peoples actions.

I am not sure why it has taken so long for this obvious step to be taken.

Seems very weird to charge parents for a child's crimes when the child is being tried as an adult.

I think that they're trying to send the message that the parents did nothing to prevent the crime.  Kinda like charging the getaway driver with murder when the stickup man shoots and kills the clerk at the Kwik-E-Mart...

I haven't ooked closely at it, but are they actually charging them as accessories to the crime with all of the requirements of that charge?

[oggsmash]

  Anyone here ever watch that show "The Wire"  It was great from what I remember, but much like robocop and detroit, it actually got WORSE than depicted in the show.  Anyway, one thing the police brass and politicians always are talking about is "massaging the stats" and making it look as if crime has not increased, or in some areas decreased.  I think that was probably a reflection of harsh reality instead of creative writing.  I would also say, things like a homicide stat to compare to the 90's or the 70's are not as meaningful, since if there is one thing doctors in cities can do these days, it is treat trauma and gunshots.  I think lots of dudes who would have been dead in 1994 get shot and recover these days. 

   When many US cities have higher homicide rates than Rio, I think anyone attempting to paint a picture of "Crime is not that bad, here is the data" is intentionally missing the serious problem areas.  I would also say, decriminalizing a shit load of crimes also does wonders to lower crime rates.   How many televised flash mob robberies to people need to see to understand something is broken in the USA?

[oggsmash]

  I mean, if the CIA is loaded with pedos...well I suspect the FBI can have a few too.    Compromised people are IMO worthless at doing anything that is going to reflect any sort of truth.

[jhkim]

   When many US cities have higher homicide rates than Rio, I think anyone attempting to paint a picture of "Crime is not that bad, here is the data" is intentionally missing the serious problem areas.  I would also say, decriminalizing a shit load of crimes also does wonders to lower crime rates.   How many televised flash mob robberies to people need to see to understand something is broken in the USA?

I'm not saying that crime isn't bad. U.S. crime is quite bad - especially our murder rate, which is far worse than other First World countries. What I would say is:

1) U.S. crime was even worse back in the 1980s-1990s. Going earlier - it was better back in the 1950s than today, but worse in the 1930s.
2) One shouldn't judge crime rates (or lots of other things) based on watching television.

  Anyone here ever watch that show "The Wire"  It was great from what I remember, but much like robocop and detroit, it actually got WORSE than depicted in the show.  Anyway, one thing the police brass and politicians always are talking about is "massaging the stats" and making it look as if crime has not increased, or in some areas decreased.  I think that was probably a reflection of harsh reality instead of creative writing.  I would also say, things like a homicide stat to compare to the 90's or the 70's are not as meaningful, since if there is one thing doctors in cities can do these days, it is treat trauma and gunshots.  I think lots of dudes who would have been dead in 1994 get shot and recover these days.

I love The Wire. It's an amazing show, and yes, there is at least some reality to it. It's based on David Simon's non-fiction book "Homicide: A Year on the Killing Streets" from when he spent 1988 with the Baltimore homicide unit. That book was adapted to television twice: in Homicide: Life on the Street (1993–99) and in The Wire (2002–08). So note that when Simon was writing about police massaging the stats - he was talking about doing so back in 1988. Massaging the stats is something that has always happened - it doesn't explain the huge drop in crime rates from 1990 to the early 2000s. Also, the national NCVS was established decades earlier under Nixon to address local police manipulation of stats.

Sadly, while many other U.S. cities like New York and L.A. have seen decrease in crime, Baltimore homicides have only gotten worse since 1988.

As for improved treatment of gunshots... If that were the primary factor, then I'd expect to see a downward trend in homicide but none in other crimes. But the national trend went down dramatically in most crimes from 1990 to the mid-2000s - including robbery, burglary, assault, and arson.