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Crimes Rates and other Trends

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Kyle Aaron:
Agreed. Nonetheless, this is what I'm told.

I know of no statistics collected on the topic of bystander dropoffs vs ambulance callouts given the same injury or conditions. All we have is anecdotal, and those I've spoken to are agreed that the dropoffs work out quicker. However, as in my parenthetical comment, they're agreed that it's still not recommended because of all the other things which could be wrong with a person and could be made worse with moving them sloppily.

I had an unseatbelted speeding woman crash her car into the tree in front of my house. She ended up lying between the seats with her head resting on the back seat. There was a fair chance of pneumothorax and cervical spine injury, and of course airway blockage. I held her neck and trunk steady for about forty-five minutes (wicked bicep pump!) and monitored her until they took her out. Moving her by myself into my car and taking her up the road would definitely have made her worse.

And of course, many jurisdictions now are quite good at giving first aid instructions over the phone. I had to do CPR on a guy on the street, and though I'm trained and somewhat practiced in it, it still helped to have a calm person on the other end of the phone talk me through it.

But anyway: time is important. This doesn't mean that nothing else matters.

oggsmash:

--- Quote from: jhkim on December 17, 2021, 01:37:53 PM ---
--- Quote from: oggsmash on December 15, 2021, 11:15:57 AM ---  The USA has a high murder rate for first world countries because we have MANY more criminal gangs than any other first world nation.  There is a VERY clear explanation for the crime dropping in the 90's and you know it.  That much maligned crime bill everyone says was enormously racist took a massive bite out of crime.    I think there is a great deal more unreported crime now as well, but even if there is not, and even if there is a downward trend now, in 2021 (not the mid 2000's, but now), so what?
--- End quote ---

As for why it's important - I think in order to understand causes, the first thing is to understand the data. Especially, I want to push against the narrative expounded by SHARK that you can just look at the TV and see how terrible things are now - and that we should go back to how we handled things in the 1980s, ignoring the data because it is bullshit.

As for the causes -- just in this thread, a lot of people here have expressed different opinions. It's not just me. Reckall cited abortion access; Ghostmaker cited poverty levels and gun control; Pat said it was disputed and was skeptical about broken windows policing. You say it's clearly the crime bill.

To be clear - by crime bill, are you talking about the 1994 federal crime bill written by then-senator Joe Biden and signed by Bill Clinton? cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_Crime_Control_and_Law_Enforcement_Act  That included the Federal Assault Weapons Ban and the Violence Against Women Act, among other provisions.

I think it's possible - but I also think it's very difficult to sort out causes from sociological data, especially that crime is affected by all sorts of other factors besides policing. I suspect that the trend is from multiple causes that have to do with society at large. Especially, I think to have a better idea, one would need local data especially on comparison of how the crime rates changes in different localities, compared with how things went in those areas.



--- Quote from: oggsmash on December 15, 2021, 11:15:57 AM ---  The reality is you say not to judge crime by TV...when people can be so brazen as to rob a store en masse on camera, I am going to judge that behavior from TV.  I can also say, that is a flat out break down of society.  People are separating out via regions and states now instead of simply fleeing to the suburbs, many are going to whole new states.   Baltimore having triple the homicide rates of Rio is a really, really bad sign.
--- End quote ---

I think going by television is still a terrible idea. You're evidently moved by brazen smash-and-grab robberies. Other people are moved by brazen school shootings - and also claim how terrible things are, but with a different slant. I think the broader reality of crime is very different than television news, just as reality is different than television news in general.

--- End quote ---

  LOL, I think as a to do list, you might want to get a friend who lived in a serious high crime area.  Talk with them, and see what they say.  I have a friend who grew up in the absolute worst part of Chicago.  He laughed about alarmist TV reporting on shootings, robbery, etc.  Because he said what people in the USA thought was horrible break downs in society was called Tuesday on South Prarie Trail.   TV DOES not show how severe the breakdowns are in some areas of the nation.  School shootings are IMO a definite signal of a breakdown of society, however they are 99 percent of the time seen coming from a mile away, and almost always with some kid who is medicated and should not be moving freely in society.  Mob break ins at random are not completely new, but they are more brazen and a definite signal the police are not so interested in actually stopping criminals in some places....it is a breakdown of society. 

  General acceptance of degenerate behavior is a massive signal for a breakdown in society.  It is what is going on.  I do not know if pendulum swings the other way or not... But of course the broader reality of crime is different than television news....just not in the ways you want to infer.  The bad places are MUCH worse than the TV likes to present, and the safe places are much safer than TV wants to present.  I do not understand how that makes it hard to fix the shit shows.

oggsmash:
The big thing that crime bill did, was come down like the hammer of thor on the drug crimes that were fueled on insane street violence, crack.  people in affected neighborhoods clamored to end the chaos, and big sentences and punishment rained down.   20 years later, it is called a racist law because of who was hammered by it...forgetting that meth gets the exact same hammer and has a very similar disproportion in the other direction.   Are you contending the minimum sentencing and so forth from that crime bill didnt slow crime down a great deal by locking up all the violent offenders for long sentences it could?  The fire arms bill didnt so shit, street crime is not fueled by magazine sizes over 10 rounds, and believe it or not, dudes doing drive by shootings with full auto weapons beefing over tons of crack cocaine do not give two fucks about magazine size laws.   They do start to pay attention when you get HAMMERED for having even a trace of crack and a gun, or any weight of crack at all though.

jhkim:

--- Quote from: oggsmash on December 20, 2021, 10:04:12 AM ---
--- Quote from: jhkim on December 17, 2021, 01:37:53 PM ---I think going by television is still a terrible idea. You're evidently moved by brazen smash-and-grab robberies. Other people are moved by brazen school shootings - and also claim how terrible things are, but with a different slant. I think the broader reality of crime is very different than television news, just as reality is different than television news in general.
--- End quote ---

  LOL, I think as a to do list, you might want to get a friend who lived in a serious high crime area.  Talk with them, and see what they say.  I have a friend who grew up in the absolute worst part of Chicago.  He laughed about alarmist TV reporting on shootings, robbery, etc.  Because he said what people in the USA thought was horrible break downs in society was called Tuesday on South Prarie Trail.   TV DOES not show how severe the breakdowns are in some areas of the nation.
--- End quote ---

--- Quote from: oggsmash on December 20, 2021, 10:04:12 AM ---But of course the broader reality of crime is different than television news....just not in the ways you want to infer.  The bad places are MUCH worse than the TV likes to present, and the safe places are much safer than TV wants to present.  I do not understand how that makes it hard to fix the shit shows.
--- End quote ---

I lived in Hyde Park (a pocket in Chicago's South Side) and at the south end of Harlem in the late 1980s and 1990s. I was mugged twice, and I knew many others who were victims of crime. I remember visiting a friend in the dorms who was on the phone with 911 as someone was stealing her car while she watched through the window.

As far as I can tell, you're agreeing with me that television news is not an accurate portrayal of the reality of crime. I wasn't trying to imply a particular slant. I'd agree that television underplays a lot of common crime like mugging or domestic violence - while playing up spectacular crimes like mass smash-and-grabs or school shootings. My point is just that television news isn't accurate evidence towards any conclusion about crime, in whichever direction - while you claimed that you could tell based on television news how bad things are compared to the 1980s.



--- Quote from: oggsmash on December 20, 2021, 10:04:12 AM --- School shootings are IMO a definite signal of a breakdown of society, however they are 99 percent of the time seen coming from a mile away, and almost always with some kid who is medicated and should not be moving freely in society.  Mob break ins at random are not completely new, but they are more brazen and a definite signal the police are not so interested in actually stopping criminals in some places....it is a breakdown of society. 

  General acceptance of degenerate behavior is a massive signal for a breakdown in society.  It is what is going on.
--- End quote ---

Can you clarify what you mean here? Your terms of "breakdown of society" or "degenerate behavior" seem vague to me, so I don't have any opinion on that. From my view, we are going through a divisive period in U.S. society - with some similarities but also many differences to the 1930s and the 1960s. Crime rates are lower than they were at their 1990 peak, but for several crimes (like murder and assault), rates have been going up since 2014 or so. As a society, we should try to focus especially on the trends that are getting worse including these as well as suicide, alcoholism, and drug overdose.

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