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Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

Started by Zirunel, May 31, 2020, 04:01:23 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Mistwell

#3330
Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 10:23:54 AM
Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 10:10:24 AM
Kiero is not going to like this one, though it's accurate:



Source would be nice, there's no attribution on there.

It looks like total bollocks to me, given the actual results in the real world, whereby the jabbed die more frequently than the unjabbed:



That's based on UK government official statistics as of last week, not a curated "study" paid for by a jab manufacturer.

Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

Kiero

Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

The mental gymnastics you brainwashed twats have to engage in to support your cognitive dissonance is incredible. If the fucking thing worked the way you deluded fools claim, then the majority of people being hospitalised and dying "with" covid wouldn't be double jabbed. Except they are. Because it isn't providing any "protection" at all.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

jhkim

Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 10:23:54 AM
It looks like total bollocks to me, given the actual results in the real world, whereby the jabbed die more frequently than the unjabbed:



That's based on UK government official statistics as of last week, not a curated "study" paid for by a jab manufacturer.

Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

Breaking down Kiero's numbers. Vaccinated is 69.0% and unvaccinated is 31.0%. Taking the other numbers relative to this population, we get:

Vaccinated: case rate 80.5, hospitalization rate 91.4, death rate 115.5
Unvaccinated: case rate 112.9, hospitalization rate 114.5, death rate 62.9

So Kiero is right that relative to percentage of population, the death rate is higher - though case rate and hospitalization rate is lower.

However, vaccinated versus unvaccinated is not random. In particular, the UK rate of vaccination is much higher in older people - and elderly people have a much higher death rate than younger people - both from covid and from other causes. I think the numbers would be much more meaningful if they were normalized by age group.

HappyDaze

#3333
Quote from: jhkim on December 10, 2021, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 10:23:54 AM
It looks like total bollocks to me, given the actual results in the real world, whereby the jabbed die more frequently than the unjabbed:



That's based on UK government official statistics as of last week, not a curated "study" paid for by a jab manufacturer.

Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

Breaking down Kiero's numbers. Vaccinated is 69.0% and unvaccinated is 31.0%. Taking the other numbers relative to this population, we get:

Vaccinated: case rate 80.5, hospitalization rate 91.4, death rate 115.5
Unvaccinated: case rate 112.9, hospitalization rate 114.5, death rate 62.9

So Kiero is right that relative to percentage of population, the death rate is higher - though case rate and hospitalization rate is lower.

However, vaccinated versus unvaccinated is not random. In particular, the UK rate of vaccination is much higher in older people - and elderly people have a much higher death rate than younger people - both from covid and from other causes. I think the numbers would be much more meaningful if they were normalized by age group.
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

Shasarak

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 10, 2021, 04:59:47 PM
Quote from: jhkim on December 10, 2021, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 10:23:54 AM
It looks like total bollocks to me, given the actual results in the real world, whereby the jabbed die more frequently than the unjabbed:



That's based on UK government official statistics as of last week, not a curated "study" paid for by a jab manufacturer.

Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

Breaking down Kiero's numbers. Vaccinated is 69.0% and unvaccinated is 31.0%. Taking the other numbers relative to this population, we get:

Vaccinated: case rate 80.5, hospitalization rate 91.4, death rate 115.5
Unvaccinated: case rate 112.9, hospitalization rate 114.5, death rate 62.9

So Kiero is right that relative to percentage of population, the death rate is higher - though case rate and hospitalization rate is lower.

However, vaccinated versus unvaccinated is not random. In particular, the UK rate of vaccination is much higher in older people - and elderly people have a much higher death rate than younger people - both from covid and from other causes. I think the numbers would be much more meaningful if they were normalized by age group.
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

Not only that, but people who are not vaccinated are less likely to suffer from climate change induced clotting problems which further skews the data.
Who da Drow?  U da drow! - hedgehobbit

There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

jhkim

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 10, 2021, 04:59:47 PM
Quote from: jhkim on December 10, 2021, 04:25:27 PM
Breaking down Kiero's numbers. Vaccinated is 69.0% and unvaccinated is 31.0%. Taking the other numbers relative to this population, we get:

Vaccinated: case rate 80.5, hospitalization rate 91.4, death rate 115.5
Unvaccinated: case rate 112.9, hospitalization rate 114.5, death rate 62.9

So Kiero is right that relative to percentage of population, the death rate is higher - though case rate and hospitalization rate is lower.

However, vaccinated versus unvaccinated is not random. In particular, the UK rate of vaccination is much higher in older people - and elderly people have a much higher death rate than younger people - both from covid and from other causes. I think the numbers would be much more meaningful if they were normalized by age group.
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

Yeah. Vaccination by age group in the UK looks like this:



The biggest group of unvaccinated is in people age 0-11, unsurprisingly. Comparing deaths among the much-younger unvaccinated population versus the vaccinated population isn't showing causality.

From quick search, this report has age-standardized mortality rates for the UK:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

The key result is age-standardised mortality rate per 100,000 person-years:








Vaccination status_   Deaths involving COVID-19_   All deaths
Unvaccinated_   849.7 (840.3, 859.2)_   2,187.1 (2,172.2, 2,202.0)
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago_   192.4 (182.4, 202.4)_   811.9 (793.4, 830.4)
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago_   105.3 (102.8, 107.8 )_   1,124.3 (1,115.9, 1,132.7)
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago_   7.2 (6.1, 8.2)_   464.6 (455.8, 473.4)
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago_   26.2 (25.4, 27.1)_   783.6 (779.1, 788.0)

Kiero

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 10, 2021, 04:59:47 PM
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

If it actually worked, the people supposedly being "protected" against covid wouldn't be the majority of people dying with covid.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

HappyDaze

Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 06:37:33 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 10, 2021, 04:59:47 PM
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

If it actually worked, the people supposedly being "protected" against covid wouldn't be the majority of people dying with covid.
Go back to what I wrote and try to understand it without your redefining of words to manipulate the truth.

jhkim

Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 06:37:33 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 10, 2021, 04:59:47 PM
Not only that, but people with comorbidities are also more likely to seek out vaccination too. Seeing comparisons where the only variable that differs is vaccination status would be the only way to make the claims Kiero is making, but this doesn't look like it does that.

If it actually worked, the people supposedly being "protected" against covid wouldn't be the majority of people dying with covid.

Kiero, you don't seem to be acknowledging the point about age. For the UK, in the 65 and older category (about 9 million), the vaccination rate is over 90%, while for those 11 and younger (also around 9 million), the vaccination rate is 0%. But covid doesn't kill equally across ages. It is almost never fatal in 0-11 year olds, while it is more often fatal in those 65 and older.

With 90% vaccination of the vulnerable vaccinated, the unvaccinated elderly can die at a much higher rate - and they'd still be the minority because they are less than 10% of the vulnerable population. Exactly how much higher the rate is varies, but it is generally higher.

Here is a Texas government study of covid deaths in the state, for example:

https://dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/vaccination-status.aspx

Mistwell

Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 04:17:42 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

The mental gymnastics you brainwashed twats have to engage in to support your cognitive dissonance is incredible. If the fucking thing worked the way you deluded fools claim, then the majority of people being hospitalised and dying "with" covid wouldn't be double jabbed. Except they are. Because it isn't providing any "protection" at all.

Yes, they would. I just showed it to you in incredible simple to understand numbers and it was so beyond you that you called that simplistic rendition "mental gymnastics." No you weak minded fool, that wasn't the4 gym for your mind, that was getting your mind up off the coach to get a soda from the fridge level exercise. If that simple level of basic comprehension, which literally was at the level my daughter learned in 3rd and 4th grade, is "mental gymnastics" to you, then you must truly be as dim as you come across.

Yes, you dumb motherfucker. If for example 19% of double jabbed people got Covid while 50% of unvaccinated people got covid, the vaccinated would make up well more than the majority of cases because so few people are unvaccinated. How you cannot wrap your tiny fucking brain around that basic easy math I truly don't understand.

Mistwell

Quote from: jhkim on December 10, 2021, 04:25:27 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 04:03:16 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 10, 2021, 10:23:54 AM
It looks like total bollocks to me, given the actual results in the real world, whereby the jabbed die more frequently than the unjabbed:



That's based on UK government official statistics as of last week, not a curated "study" paid for by a jab manufacturer.

Man you're fucking simple sometimes.

Let's say we have 10 units of people.

8 units of people are vaccinated, and 2 units of people are not.

1 unit of the 2 units of unvaccinated people get covid.
1.5 units of 8 units of vaccinated people get covid.

By your measurement, which was so simplistic it didn't account for any percentages of the population for each category (it's showing percentage of the total deaths etc. are vaccinated or unvaccinated but not adjusting for the percentage of the population that represents), the vaccinated people are getting sick "more often" (in fact your spin would have them getting sick at a rate of 50% more than the unvaccinated) even though 50% of the unvaccinated got sick in this example but only 19% of vaccinated got sick in this example.

Breaking down Kiero's numbers. Vaccinated is 69.0% and unvaccinated is 31.0%. Taking the other numbers relative to this population, we get:

Vaccinated: case rate 80.5, hospitalization rate 91.4, death rate 115.5
Unvaccinated: case rate 112.9, hospitalization rate 114.5, death rate 62.9

So Kiero is right that relative to percentage of population, the death rate is higher - though case rate and hospitalization rate is lower.

However, vaccinated versus unvaccinated is not random. In particular, the UK rate of vaccination is much higher in older people - and elderly people have a much higher death rate than younger people - both from covid and from other causes. I think the numbers would be much more meaningful if they were normalized by age group.

Naw man you're incorrect. There isn't the data in Kiero's chart to pull out the percent of the population reflected in that sample which is vaccinated vs unvaccinated relative to the UK. His chart isn't showing you that data. If you think it is, go to the source he's citing and look there.

jhkim

Quote from: Mistwell on December 10, 2021, 07:28:27 PM
Naw man you're incorrect. There isn't the data in Kiero's chart to pull out the percent of the population reflected in that sample which is vaccinated vs unvaccinated relative to the UK. His chart isn't showing you that data. If you think it is, go to the source he's citing and look there.

Reading his chart, the leftmost bars look like they're saying 69% of the population are vaccinated and 31% are unvaccinated.



It is a little confusingly presented, because read literally by color, it implies that 69.0% of vaccinated people are vaccinated, and 31.0% of unvaccinated people are vaccinated. I think that's just a problem in presentation. When I look elsewhere, that seems like roughly the full vaccination rate among the whole population - like this site that currently reports 68.38% fully vaccinated:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/uk_coronavirus_full_vaccination_rate

That would be counting the ~7% who have only received a single dose as "unvaccinated", but that seems like a minor point. And of course, that's of all people, including the 9 million or so people under age 12.

dkabq

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

The key result is age-standardised mortality rate per 100,000 person-years:

Vaccination status                                                           _   Deaths involving COVID-19   _   All deaths
Unvaccinated                                                                   _   849.7 (840.3, 859.2)                   _   2,187.1 (2,172.2, 2,202.0)
Received only the first dose, less than 21 days ago   _   192.4 (182.4, 202.4)                   _   811.9 (793.4, 830.4)
Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago           _   105.3 (102.8, 107.8 )                   _   1,124.3 (1,115.9, 1,132.7)
Received the second dose, less than 21 days ago           _   7.2 (6.1, 8.2)                           _   464.6 (455.8, 473.4)
Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago           _   26.2 (25.4, 27.1)                   _   783.6 (779.1, 788.0)


I am having a difficult time getting my head around the person-years. I understand (I think) how it is calculated, but it is not clear why that is a good normalization for this data.

From the website: "For example, 100 people in a particular vaccination status for 0.5 years would be 50 person-years."

So that means that if 10 people had been in the 2-dose, >=21 days status for 0.1 year when they died with covid, that would be 1 person-year. And if they had died with covid at 0.2 year, that would be 2 person-year. Seems odd that the longer in a status before you die, the higher your contribution to the count.

Also, should I read the table as saying that being unvaccinated results in overall worse death results than being fully-vaccinated (2,187.1 vs. 783.6, respectively)?

Zelen

Myocarditis incidence 1/2680 among young men, based on hospitalization following injection with Pfizer. Study

Seriously criminal.

Kiero

The graph is derived from this report: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037987/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-48.pdf

All this bollocks about "interpreting by age", if they were doing anything, that wouldn't matter. Old people were the majority dying with covid before "vaccination". They still are. Young people didn't die before the jabs, they still aren't, only now they're dying from adverse reactions.

The jabs haven't done a fucking thing and you mugs keep parroting all the bullshit official lines about how we just need to look at the data in a certain way.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.