Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

[The Spaniard]

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-restrictions-update-regional-lockdown-extended-changing-restrictions-everything-to-know-explainer/a74df2ef-f025-4a98-b4ab-fce6dc2fddb2

1 hour of exercise per day, no more. Only emergency services and healthcare workers can leave. If you live alone, you're allowed to nominate one and only one visitor, and they must be registered with the government. Masks everywhere outside the home, except when exercising.

Entertainingly, this main thrust of the article is that Australians are being given "new freedoms". (If you can demonstrate proof of vax, you're allowed to spend 2 hours exercising, and can even visit a park!)

Good thing the fascists already took away everyone's guns.

Greetings!

I would like to think if the government tried to pull that tyrannical BS here, people would rise up and crush these people. String them the fuck up, without mercy!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

That's wishful thinking Shark.  We're not that far away.  Look at the bullshit happening in Oregon.  No one is rising up, they're meekly complying.

[Zelen]

The states with the lowest vaccination rates have the highest hospitalization and death rates right now. Why?

For example, the two states with the lowest vaccination rates are Alabama (36.79%) and Mississippi (37.25%). They also have the highest hospitalizations at 60 per 100,000 and 56 per 100,000. Meanwhile the states with the highest vaccination rates are Vermont (67.54%) and Massachusetts (65.47%). They also have the lowest hospitalizations at 4 per 100,000 and 7 per 100,000. This data holds up for death rates as well. Alabama has a current daily Covid death rate of 0.37 per 100,000, and Mississippi has a current daily Covid death rate of 1.27 per 100,000. Compare that to Vermont at 0.09 per 100,000 and Massachusetts at 0.07 per 100,000.

Why would that be, if what you believe were true?

Seasonality & underlying health of these populations. Both Alabama and Mississippi are much less affluent than the populations of either Mass or Vermont, and have much higher proportion of African peoples, which both explains low injection rate as well as relates to the hospitalization and death rates, since African Americans are more obese on average (and other health conditions, like Vit-D deficient and generally poor nutrition). In the coming months the northern states are going to get hit hard.

I do think it's fair to point out injections tend to be correlated to lower hospitalization and deaths, but unfortunately the case isn't as clear as some make it out to be since seasonality is a big confounding factor in most of the analyses I've seen of this nature. For example, major cities in Florida have injection rates between 40% to 60%, and different local policies on masks (et al). All these are following similar trends in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

[DocJones]

The states with the lowest vaccination rates have the highest hospitalization and death rates right now. Why?

Mississippi is the heaviest State.

[Mistwell]

High levels of testing are definitely being used to foster fear, where none would exist without it. That being said, massive testing isn't the only problem. I have no doubt there's a real spike of infections, the question is why there's such a spike of cases in countries where vaccination rates among the vulnerable 65+ population are in the 80-90% range, and probably around 60% or more overall. Vaccination doesn't seem to produce a meaningful impact on case numbers


Hospitalization numbers are also subject to reporting biases.
It's impossible to provide a non-local estimate, but I have seen sources suggesting ~25% of "hospitalizations" are patients who have been admitted for reasons other than SarsCov-2 infection.
I've also seen it suggested that ~25% of hospitalized cases are nosocomial infections, e.g. acquired during hospitalization. This makes sense since it's virtually impossible to prevent the spread of SarsCov-2 indoors. This is even more true with increased infectivity of Delta strain. If Covid patients are kept physically separated in different wings if they are on the same ventilation & AC system, the virus can easily be transmitted.

Deaths are the metric that's probably least amenable to manipulation, but we do see increases in death numbers. In the US at least, there's a big reservoir of deeply unhealthy morbidly obese people, so I feel like that plays a significant role. It's hard to pin it down really, because countries like Israel are seeing their highest ever deaths despite major vaccination. Meanwhile Sweden with much lower vaccination and seems to have basically reached herd immunity and zero deaths.

Why do states with the least vaccinations have the most hospitalizations and deaths, and states with the most vaccinations have the least hospitalizations and deaths?

[Mistwell]

The states with the lowest vaccination rates have the highest hospitalization and death rates right now. Why?

Mississippi is the heaviest State.

Michigan is a top 10 obesity rate state but has only 10 Covid hospitalizations per 100,000 and 0.13 deaths per 100,000. But they have higher rates of vaccinations at over 50%. So obesity doesn't explain it.

[dkabq]

The states with the lowest vaccination rates have the highest hospitalization and death rates right now. Why?

For example, the two states with the lowest vaccination rates are Alabama (36.79%) and Mississippi (37.25%). They also have the highest hospitalizations at 60 per 100,000 and 56 per 100,000. Meanwhile the states with the highest vaccination rates are Vermont (67.54%) and Massachusetts (65.47%). They also have the lowest hospitalizations at 4 per 100,000 and 7 per 100,000. This data holds up for death rates as well. Alabama has a current daily Covid death rate of 0.37 per 100,000, and Mississippi has a current daily Covid death rate of 1.27 per 100,000. Compare that to Vermont at 0.09 per 100,000 and Massachusetts at 0.07 per 100,000.

Why would that be, if what you believe were true?

Seasonality & underlying health of these populations. Both Alabama and Mississippi are much less affluent than the populations of either Mass or Vermont, and have much higher proportion of African peoples, which both explains low injection rate as well as relates to the hospitalization and death rates, since African Americans are more obese on average (and other health conditions, like Vit-D deficient and generally poor nutrition). In the coming months the northern states are going to get hit hard.

I do think it's fair to point out injections tend to be correlated to lower hospitalization and deaths, but unfortunately the case isn't as clear as some make it out to be since seasonality is a big confounding factor in most of the analyses I've seen of this nature. For example, major cities in Florida have injection rates between 40% to 60%, and different local policies on masks (et al). All these are following similar trends in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

I believe that the technical term is "a fuck-ton of confounding factors".   

And while you can use various statistical methods to torture answers out of the data, the answers are only as good as the data and the assumptions you bake into your modeling. Given the replication crisis and p-hacking, I am skeptical of any results (whether they confirm my biases or not) where the data and the methodology are not provided for public review.

[Mistwell]

The states with the lowest vaccination rates have the highest hospitalization and death rates right now. Why?

For example, the two states with the lowest vaccination rates are Alabama (36.79%) and Mississippi (37.25%). They also have the highest hospitalizations at 60 per 100,000 and 56 per 100,000. Meanwhile the states with the highest vaccination rates are Vermont (67.54%) and Massachusetts (65.47%). They also have the lowest hospitalizations at 4 per 100,000 and 7 per 100,000. This data holds up for death rates as well. Alabama has a current daily Covid death rate of 0.37 per 100,000, and Mississippi has a current daily Covid death rate of 1.27 per 100,000. Compare that to Vermont at 0.09 per 100,000 and Massachusetts at 0.07 per 100,000.

Why would that be, if what you believe were true?

Seasonality & underlying health of these populations. Both Alabama and Mississippi are much less affluent than the populations of either Mass or Vermont, and have much higher proportion of African peoples, which both explains low injection rate as well as relates to the hospitalization and death rates, since African Americans are more obese on average (and other health conditions, like Vit-D deficient and generally poor nutrition). In the coming months the northern states are going to get hit hard.

Maryland is in the top 10 for African American population but has low hospitalization and death rates. But they have high vaccination rates. New Mexico is in the top 10 for poverty rates and lowest GDP per 100,000 but has low hospitalization and death rates. They also have a top 10 highest vaccination rate. Your guesses just are not panning out.

The one most consistent factor in reducing hospitalizations and deaths from Covid is vaccination rates. If I hid the names of various factors for all 50 states and simply listed them all along with hospitalizations and death rates, y'all would not be able to pick out factors with any consistency other than the one which was vaccination rates.

[Zelen]

The one most consistent factor in reducing hospitalizations and deaths from Covid is vaccination rates. If I hid the names of various factors for all 50 states and simply listed them all along with hospitalizations and death rates, y'all would not be able to pick out factors with any consistency other than the one which was vaccination rates.

I'm pretty open to saying that I think the injections reduce hospitalizations and deaths, particularly among the elderly/vulnerable population.* However I don't think it's correct or appropriate to imply that the relationship to injections is linear or as simple as you seem eager to portray it. It's clear that factors outside of vaccination are actually much more significant than %injected when it comes to assessing C/H/D in a population. The kind of cherry picking gotcha you're trying to engage in simply demonstrates you've already reached the conclusion you wanted and aren't engaging meaningfully with the data.

* ^{I don't think the cost/benefit is there for much of the population, and pursuing 100% as a goal is harmful and not grounded in science or ethics. The majority of healthy adults and children will be exposed and become immune without major health consequences, and we can improve outcomes overall with early treatment and other methods that are far less likely to result in heart attacks, strokes, and other negatives.}

[oggsmash]

  I thought vaccines prevent infections.  So now the metric for vaccines is preventing hospitalizations or death?  With a virus with a less than 1 percent death rate?  I think it is great if it can save a person's life.  I think the people at risk can consider if it is right for them.  I do not think calling a therapeutic a vaccine is being completely honest though. 

[HappyDaze]

High levels of testing are definitely being used to foster fear, where none would exist without it. That being said, massive testing isn't the only problem. I have no doubt there's a real spike of infections, the question is why there's such a spike of cases in countries where vaccination rates among the vulnerable 65+ population are in the 80-90% range, and probably around 60% or more overall. Vaccination doesn't seem to produce a meaningful impact on case numbers


Hospitalization numbers are also subject to reporting biases.
It's impossible to provide a non-local estimate, but I have seen sources suggesting ~25% of "hospitalizations" are patients who have been admitted for reasons other than SarsCov-2 infection.
I've also seen it suggested that ~25% of hospitalized cases are nosocomial infections, e.g. acquired during hospitalization. This makes sense since it's virtually impossible to prevent the spread of SarsCov-2 indoors. This is even more true with increased infectivity of Delta strain. If Covid patients are kept physically separated in different wings if they are on the same ventilation & AC system, the virus can easily be transmitted.

Deaths are the metric that's probably least amenable to manipulation, but we do see increases in death numbers. In the US at least, there's a big reservoir of deeply unhealthy morbidly obese people, so I feel like that plays a significant role. It's hard to pin it down really, because countries like Israel are seeing their highest ever deaths despite major vaccination. Meanwhile Sweden with much lower vaccination and seems to have basically reached herd immunity and zero deaths.

Even when Covid patients are funneled to special units, most pass through emergency department doors to get to them. EDs are seldom set up to segregate a large influx of infectious patients--only a small portion of rooms are set up for negative pressure, or with anterooms, and the lobby is always going to be mess. Too many potentially infectious patients get stuck waiting in ED rooms (or, worse, hallway beds and/or lobby) for hours before infection is confirmed and a room on a specialty unit becomes available.

[HappyDaze]

  I thought vaccines prevent infections.  So now the metric for vaccines is preventing hospitalizations or death?  With a virus with a less than 1 percent death rate?  I think it is great if it can save a person's life.  I think the people at risk can consider if it is right for them.  I do not think calling a therapeutic a vaccine is being completely honest though.

Flu vaccines have a long history of reducing severity even when they cannot fully prevent infections. This is linked to the many strains of influenza that are out there and how it's impractical to vaccinate against all of them. Covid too has several variants at this point, with delta just being the most prominent (and not the one the vaccines were originally intended to fight).

[oggsmash]

  I thought vaccines prevent infections.  So now the metric for vaccines is preventing hospitalizations or death?  With a virus with a less than 1 percent death rate?  I think it is great if it can save a person's life.  I think the people at risk can consider if it is right for them.  I do not think calling a therapeutic a vaccine is being completely honest though.

Flu vaccines have a long history of reducing severity even when they cannot fully prevent infections. This is linked to the many strains of influenza that are out there and how it's impractical to vaccinate against all of them. Covid too has several variants at this point, with delta just being the most prominent (and not the one the vaccines were originally intended to fight).

  Fun fact:  I do not get Flu vaccines either, for that very reason.   Edited to add: meaning it is often the wrong shot for the wrong bug.

[SHARK]

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-restrictions-update-regional-lockdown-extended-changing-restrictions-everything-to-know-explainer/a74df2ef-f025-4a98-b4ab-fce6dc2fddb2

1 hour of exercise per day, no more. Only emergency services and healthcare workers can leave. If you live alone, you're allowed to nominate one and only one visitor, and they must be registered with the government. Masks everywhere outside the home, except when exercising.

Entertainingly, this main thrust of the article is that Australians are being given "new freedoms". (If you can demonstrate proof of vax, you're allowed to spend 2 hours exercising, and can even visit a park!)

Good thing the fascists already took away everyone's guns.

Greetings!

I would like to think if the government tried to pull that tyrannical BS here, people would rise up and crush these people. String them the fuck up, without mercy!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

That's wishful thinking Shark.  We're not that far away.  Look at the bullshit happening in Oregon.  No one is rising up, they're meekly complying.

Greetings!

Yeah, Spaniard, you are right. So many weak, pussy sheep. Oregon is full of them!

I know. I'm an old Tyrannosaurus Rex. Not that long ago, corrupt, evil politicians were strung the fuck up from trees. If not that, they were removed from their positions and titles, stripped naked, and tarred and feathered, and run out of town, their political careers ruined, and lucky to escape with their lives.

Now, we have so many people that want to get on their knees and grovel like animals. Scraping at the feet of their masters. These fucking cowardly worms are born for the yoke. So sad, my friend.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

[Mistwell]

  I thought vaccines prevent infections.  So now the metric for vaccines is preventing hospitalizations or death?  With a virus with a less than 1 percent death rate?  I think it is great if it can save a person's life.  I think the people at risk can consider if it is right for them.  I do not think calling a therapeutic a vaccine is being completely honest though.

Vaccinations reduce (but do not eliminate 100%) infections. Vaccinations reduce (but do not eliminate 100%) hospitalizations. Vaccinations reduce (but nearly eliminate 100%) deaths. Over time, vaccinations wear off and will need a booster. Covid also comes with risks which are beyond just the risk of death with long covid being a real thing and long term possibly lifetime damage likely being a thing. Pretending if you don't die then it is just a big nothingburger is disingenuous.

[Zelen]

For reference:



158,429 tests performed

5.86% positive in fully injected cohort
6.11% positive in uninjected cohort

The uninjected cohort is obliged to be tested more frequently creating a significant bias in their data (among many other factors that should be biasing toward higher %).

FWIW all of this is pretty strange and it's not clear what to make of it. To me this suggests injections have 0% (or less) protection against infection.

Right now Israel is one of the top 5 most injected countries, but also top 5 per capita cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. I sincerely can't imagine that the US has a healthier overall population than Israel, so what the hell are things going to be like for the US when flu season really hits in the winter? I fully expect worse than last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if several US states go full Australia.