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Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

Started by Zirunel, May 31, 2020, 04:01:23 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Mistwell

Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II, U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH COULD DROP BY A FULL YEAR. 

ROUGHLY 3.1 MILLION AMERICANS HAVE LOST A CLOSE RELATIVE TO COVID-19.

moonsweeper

Quote from: Mistwell on January 05, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

Uh, no...

At which point do we consider the Atlantic to no longer be 'massaging' their data and actually 'raping' it instead?
"I have a very hard time taking seriously someone who has the time and resources to protest capitalism, while walking around in Nike shoes and drinking Starbucks, while filming it on their iPhone."  --  Alderaan Crumbs

"Just, can you make it The Ramones at least? I only listen to Abba when I want to fuck a stripper." -- Jeff37923

"Government is the only entity that relies on its failures to justify the expansion of its powers." -- David Freiheit (Viva Frei)

Kiero

Quote from: Mistwell on January 05, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II, U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH COULD DROP BY A FULL YEAR. 

ROUGHLY 3.1 MILLION AMERICANS HAVE LOST A CLOSE RELATIVE TO COVID-19.

The average age of death "with" covid in the UK is 82.4. That's almost exactly the average age of death from all causes. That doesn't imply lost years at all.

377 people under the age of 60 and without any co-morbidities have died. In other words, if you're young and healthy, your risk is negligible, though you are much more likely to commit suicide or suffer from mental health issues than you were before lockdowns.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

Garry G

Quote from: HappyDaze on January 05, 2021, 09:11:42 AM
Quote from: Kiero on January 05, 2021, 04:44:00 AM
Quote from: HappyDaze on January 04, 2021, 06:44:32 PM
Are you speaking qualitatively or quantitatively? I just like to know what kind of monster I'm hunting.

Sorry, why would you think I could give a flying fuck what your opinion on the matter is?
Glad to see we have a totally reciprocal relationship! It makes communicating so much easier when we both know there's absolutely no point to it. Now if everyone here could just be so honest.

To be fair you can't be too hard on Kiero. He avowes to not care for anybody beyond his absolutely immediate family, is a latent anti-vaxxer who believes that governments across the world have a concerted plan to use a virus with no ill effects to take his liberty and states he owes others not the slightest effort to prevent them dying. As a complete mental he needs compassion.

Pat

Quote from: moonsweeper on January 05, 2021, 12:57:52 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on January 05, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

Uh, no...

At which point do we consider the Atlantic to no longer be 'massaging' their data and actually 'raping' it instead?
It's not the Atlantic. I've linked to the guy they're citing before. He's a professor of genetics at Harvard. Here's his analysis:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.18.20214783v1.full.pdf

Note it's based on a pretty simple calculations, and hasn't been peer reviewed, though he's supposedly shopping it around to journals. Also, it's high compared to other estimates. And it doesn't look at the alternative costs. He's estimating that 2.5 million life years have been lost due to the pandemic, through early October. Another analysis, also not peer reviewed but also by qualified academics (Stanford physician, various professors of business, etc.), is estimating the lockdowns are costing 700,000 life years per month, far more than COVID-19 itself.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life

While the numbers sound scary, that's an irrational response because I don't have a good feel for what a million life years mean, when compared to other causes of death. But a few back of the envelope calculations suggests it's in the ballpark of other threats. For instance, if there are 40K car crash deaths, and the average age of death is 39 (half the US life expectancy), that's more than 1.5 million life years lost. In particular, I'd be curious to see a comparison to the seasonal flu. We know the number of deaths due to sar2 is higher, but the the flu is more deadly for people under 49, which would dramatically increase the average number of life years lost.

Mistwell

Quote from: moonsweeper on January 05, 2021, 12:57:52 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on January 05, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

Uh, no...

At which point do we consider the Atlantic to no longer be 'massaging' their data and actually 'raping' it instead?

You saying "nuh uh" is not a valid response. They show their math and "nuh uh, I don't like it so I will hold my fingers in my ears" is just a 6 year old's reaction.

Mistwell

#1341
Quote from: Kiero on January 05, 2021, 01:10:36 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on January 05, 2021, 10:34:23 AM
Link

ON AVERAGE, EACH PERSON IN THE U.S. WHO HAS DIED FROM COVID-19 WAS DEPRIVED OF ABOUT 13 YEARS OF LIFE. 

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II, U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH COULD DROP BY A FULL YEAR. 

ROUGHLY 3.1 MILLION AMERICANS HAVE LOST A CLOSE RELATIVE TO COVID-19.

The average age of death "with" covid in the UK is 82.4. That's almost exactly the average age of death from all causes. That doesn't imply lost years at all.

377 people under the age of 60 and without any co-morbidities have died. In other words, if you're young and healthy, your risk is negligible, though you are much more likely to commit suicide or suffer from mental health issues than you were before lockdowns.

That's not how you calculate years lost however. If the average is 82.4 (which it is not in the US by the way) but 5% (as a hypothetical) are age 15, then those years lost count as well. You don't take the average age, you take all the actual ages and count all the actual years lost as best you can. "People under the age of 65, Elledge estimates, account for 45 percent of the total unlived years."


Kiero

Quote from: Garry G on January 05, 2021, 01:32:43 PM
To be fair you can't be too hard on Kiero. He avowes to not care for anybody beyond his absolutely immediate family, is a latent anti-vaxxer who believes that governments across the world have a concerted plan to use a virus with no ill effects to take his liberty and states he owes others not the slightest effort to prevent them dying. As a complete mental he needs compassion.

Spare your faux-sincerity act for someone who actually believes you, you smug cunt.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

EOTB

Bothering to debate studies only establishes you have a price, and invites non-stop negotiations to determine where your clearing point may be.
A framework for generating local politics

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HappyDaze

Quote from: Kiero on January 05, 2021, 02:31:22 PM
Quote from: Garry G on January 05, 2021, 01:32:43 PM
To be fair you can't be too hard on Kiero. He avowes to not care for anybody beyond his absolutely immediate family, is a latent anti-vaxxer who believes that governments across the world have a concerted plan to use a virus with no ill effects to take his liberty and states he owes others not the slightest effort to prevent them dying. As a complete mental he needs compassion.

Spare your faux-sincerity act for someone who actually believes you, you smug cunt.
Eats you up that we pity you, doesn't it? Oh well, maybe you'll get better at being human.

Shasarak

Quote from: HappyDaze on January 05, 2021, 02:35:21 PM
Oh well, maybe you'll get better at being human.

There is no reasonable person that would say this.
Who da Drow?  U da drow! - hedgehobbit

There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

Garry G

Quote from: Kiero on January 05, 2021, 02:31:22 PM
Quote from: Garry G on January 05, 2021, 01:32:43 PM
To be fair you can't be too hard on Kiero. He avowes to not care for anybody beyond his absolutely immediate family, is a latent anti-vaxxer who believes that governments across the world have a concerted plan to use a virus with no ill effects to take his liberty and states he owes others not the slightest effort to prevent them dying. As a complete mental he needs compassion.

Spare your faux-sincerity act for someone who actually believes you, you smug cunt.

Calm down you gadje I wasn't even talking to you and I can confirm that I was being completely sincere when I called you a mental.

HappyDaze

Quote from: Shasarak on January 05, 2021, 02:52:54 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on January 05, 2021, 02:35:21 PM
Oh well, maybe you'll get better at being human.

There is no reasonable person that would say this.
Your use of sarcastic black tells me you agree. 8)

Shasarak

Quote from: HappyDaze on January 05, 2021, 04:38:18 PM
Quote from: Shasarak on January 05, 2021, 02:52:54 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on January 05, 2021, 02:35:21 PM
Oh well, maybe you'll get better at being human.

There is no reasonable person that would say this.
Your use of sarcastic black tells me you agree. 8)

Yes of course I do.
Who da Drow?  U da drow! - hedgehobbit

There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

consolcwby

Quote from: Garry G on January 05, 2021, 04:03:10 PM
Quote from: Kiero on January 05, 2021, 02:31:22 PM
Quote from: Garry G on January 05, 2021, 01:32:43 PM
To be fair you can't be too hard on Kiero. He avowes to not care for anybody beyond his absolutely immediate family, is a latent anti-vaxxer who believes that governments across the world have a concerted plan to use a virus with no ill effects to take his liberty and states he owes others not the slightest effort to prevent them dying. As a complete mental he needs compassion.

Spare your faux-sincerity act for someone who actually believes you, you smug cunt.

Calm down you gadje I wasn't even talking to you and I can confirm that I was being completely sincere when I called you a mental.
Hm... FOR THOSE OF YOU PLAYING AT HOME, THE SECRET PASSWORD FOR TODAY IS ~
GADJE:
Borrowed from Romani gadje. Doublet of gadgie and gorger.

Noun
gadje (plural gadjes or gadje)

A non-Roma; a non-Romani person.
from: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/gadje
----
Is Gary a Gypsy?  :o
----
Now back to our regularly scheduled programme, already in progress.
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