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Author Topic: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.  (Read 39512 times)

Steven Mitchell

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #510 on: September 02, 2020, 07:48:26 AM »
So, if COVID was only responsible for 9K deaths, WTF caused all the excess deaths compared to last year? Because that's 200K people dead from "something", if it's not COVID. That's about 10% over the expected mortality. Something's doing it and if it's not COVID, what?
Too early to say for sure.  Probably a mixture of several things, such as:
- COVID pushed some dying people over the edge sooner.  In which case, the rate should taper off next year after the season flu does its usual number.
- Speaking of which, just how bad was the flu this year?  There were hints a few times that it might be rough, but the numbers are getting mangled in the poor COVID testing process.  If a patient gets pushed over the edge by COVID the hospital or nursing home makes more money than if the same patient dies from the flu. The COVID tests are picking up other viruses.  Don't even try to tell me that this isn't being abused--the only question is how much.
- How many people did the lockdown kill?  We'll probably never know for sure, but it definitely killed some--e.g. people with dangerous but not killing heart attacks refusing to get care because of fear of COVID, then suffering a second attack.  Suicide rate is up. 

That's all on top of the fact that even a variation on the flu, like COVID, is still deadly to some people.  We get a nasty variation on the actual flu every 10 to 20 years that kills at about the same rate as COVID, and probably for the same reasons.
Not to be callous about it--but as an imperfect analogy, consider what a nasty winter or particularly hot and dry summer does to living things. It kills them--including some that made it through the last few such lesser winters or summers.  Things that could handle a few 20 degree days or a stretch of 90 degrees with a little rain can't handle a couple of weeks of around zero degrees or almost two months of 100 degrees and no rain. Heck, those conditions even kill a few people--usually elderly and sick ones. 

Ghostmaker

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #511 on: September 02, 2020, 08:19:35 AM »
Here's the NYT, which has a very strong bias in the other direction, saying that 1 in 3 small businesses in NYC will close due to the shutdowns:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-small-businesses-closing-coronavirus.html

And here's a Yelp survey, which has been widely quoted by numerous news outlets (including leftist ones like CNN), which suggests up to 60% of restaurants, across the country, that were shutdown are gone for good.
https://www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/yea-q2-2020
Restaurants are the canary in the coal mine of the economy. When they start crumpling, watch yourselves.


That being said, between the rioting and Covid-19, a number of cities are going to be facing some, uh, interesting times.


Case in point: https://www.startribune.com/skyrocketing-demolition-costs-for-riot-damaged-properties-delay-rebuilding/572269302/


Do you think those businesses will return? Even the ones that have insurance that covers everything, they'll be pressured to move. Who wants to build (or insure) in a place where screaming hooligans might burn the building down on a whim?

moonsweeper

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #512 on: September 02, 2020, 09:17:19 AM »

Restaurants are the canary in the coal mine of the economy. When they start crumpling, watch yourselves.


That being said, between the rioting and Covid-19, a number of cities are going to be facing some, uh, interesting times.


Case in point: https://www.startribune.com/skyrocketing-demolition-costs-for-riot-damaged-properties-delay-rebuilding/572269302/


Do you think those businesses will return? Even the ones that have insurance that covers everything, they'll be pressured to move. Who wants to build (or insure) in a place where screaming hooligans might burn the building down on a whim?


The US has moved to a more service-based economy over the years, that is why the restaurants are the canary.


Even if the insurance pays fully, the lost revenue and the increase in premiums will drive a large number of businesses under.


But hey, for the globalists that's a feature not a bug...I mean we obviously can't have people going into business for themselves and getting out from under the wage slave thumb...
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robiswrong

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #513 on: September 02, 2020, 09:39:14 AM »
Which is what's most important here regarding CoronaChan. It's just a "flu variant" - and so laughably obviously so - and if we weren't bullshitting the numbers left and right, we'd see 2020 was nothing more than a bad flu year.


Look at "excess deaths".  It's the most interesting, and hardest to bullshit, stat.


If anything it would underestimate covid deaths due to people being under various levels of lockdown and so fewer people dying from other causes, other diseases being spread less, etc.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13

Hawkwing7423

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #514 on: September 02, 2020, 07:08:46 PM »
Look at "excess deaths".  It's the most interesting, and hardest to bullshit, stat.If anything it would underestimate covid deaths due to people being under various levels of lockdown and so fewer people dying from other causes, other diseases being spread less, etc.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13

Marketwatch is extremely biased on the globalist, anti-Trump side. We need to have complete years to compare. I guess there could have been a spike when people like Cuomo shoved COVID patients in nursing homes. We will see when this is all over.

Even if the COVID death count is genuine, that means retirees need to take more precautions, not everyone else.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 07:12:56 PM by Hawkwing7423 »

Hawkwing7423

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #515 on: September 02, 2020, 07:39:24 PM »
I found this data to be interesting:


https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6


It shows Illinois has a 16% increase in deaths as of last week and Indiana has an 8% increase. Indiana has been negative vs. last year for the last 3 weeks, which may point to a COVID bubble.
I am very curious to see how it looks when the entire calendar year is done.


Shasarak

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #516 on: September 02, 2020, 07:47:16 PM »
Too early to say for sure.  Probably a mixture of several things, such as:
- COVID pushed some dying people over the edge sooner.  In which case, the rate should taper off next year after the season flu does its usual number.
One commentator that I follow made the comment that it almost seems as if someone infected with the Wuhan virus is spending their regenerative power to fight it off and therefore if you are older and or have less left then you will die.
If this is the case then it will be interesting to see if people who have recovered die earlier then you would normally expect.
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Pat

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #517 on: September 02, 2020, 08:10:45 PM »
It's probably a month out of date, but at one point the average age of coronavirus related deaths in Pennsylvania was 84.

The average Pennsylvanian lives to 78.

The highest estimate I've seen for the number of years of life lost for an an average coronavirus death is 12, and that's based on average years of additional life expected based on age, sex, and long term conditions. Since it uses an average and not the lifespan on the margin[1], it serves as an upper bound, and the real number is likely much lower.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1

[1] Given a group of people with the same age, sex, and long term conditions, we can assume those who die of the coronavirus were probably among those who would have passed away sooner.

spon

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #518 on: September 03, 2020, 05:51:07 AM »
Given a group of people with the same age, sex, and long term conditions, we can assume those who die of the coronavirus were probably among those who would have passed away sooner.


Indeed, and that's one of the nasty things about this virus - it has the greatest effect on people who were vulnerable anyway. It's one thing to know that your Grandma/ Grandpa is frail and might die/get very ill at any time. It's quite another to know that you might infect them with COVID and cause that death/decline. Yes, you might have done that last year with the flu, but flu shots are a thing and COVID appears even nastier.


Secondly, there seem to be a number of otherwise fit people who are badly affected by COVID and who develop serious ongoing heart/organ issues. These people are likely to have it much worse if/when they catch COVID again. So there seems to be a significant number of people who will start healthy, catch COVID, become vulnerable and then die when they catch the next wave of COVID. I don't have the stats (I suspect it's not been with us long enough to get them) on how big this particular issue really is.
 

Steven Mitchell

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #519 on: September 03, 2020, 08:01:18 AM »

Secondly, there seem to be a number of otherwise fit people who are badly affected by COVID and who develop serious ongoing heart/organ issues. These people are likely to have it much worse if/when they catch COVID again. So there seems to be a significant number of people who will start healthy, catch COVID, become vulnerable and then die when they catch the next wave of COVID. I don't have the stats (I suspect it's not been with us long enough to get them) on how big this particular issue really is.
You are right that we don't have the information yet.  Given the state of the hysteria of the media, even when some people do have it, it is going to be somewhat difficult for the rest of us to get it, at least in a form we can reasonably trust. 

We do know that the same thing happens with other diseases.  When an otherwise healthy person dies from the flu, it's usually because it caught them at a bad time (stress, low vitamin levels, not enough sleep, dehydrated), probably trying to power through it, gets pneumonia.  Out of all the people that get pneumonia, some are going to have serious complications and some are going to die.  The silver lining in that is that the same thing a person ought to do to cope with it is get the sleep, eat well, hydrate, etc.  And when that isn't sufficient, get care.  Which all has other positive benefits besides merely avoiding diseases. 

Note that the lockdown makes the coping and the getting care more difficult for a significant portion of the population.  Unlike, say, random car accidents that you can only do so much to protect against and maim and kill indiscriminately.  Those are down with the lockdown.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #520 on: September 03, 2020, 10:05:12 AM »
And even if Covid has severe after-affects, what do we do about it?


We can't stay locked down until a hypothetical vaccine emerges, and even willing and dilligent people are going to get slack after months and years of mask wearing and social distancing.





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Kiero

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #521 on: September 04, 2020, 03:50:00 AM »
Secondly, there seem to be a number of otherwise fit people who are badly affected by COVID and who develop serious ongoing heart/organ issues. These people are likely to have it much worse if/when they catch COVID again. So there seems to be a significant number of people who will start healthy, catch COVID, become vulnerable and then die when they catch the next wave of COVID. I don't have the stats (I suspect it's not been with us long enough to get them) on how big this particular issue really is.
An absolutely tiny number of outliers. The vast majority of those hospitalised are over-65, suffering from multiple co-morbidities, and are overweight or obese. When looking at deaths, it's over 90% who have one or more of those factors.
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HappyDaze

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #522 on: September 04, 2020, 06:21:49 AM »
Secondly, there seem to be a number of otherwise fit people who are badly affected by COVID and who develop serious ongoing heart/organ issues. These people are likely to have it much worse if/when they catch COVID again. So there seems to be a significant number of people who will start healthy, catch COVID, become vulnerable and then die when they catch the next wave of COVID. I don't have the stats (I suspect it's not been with us long enough to get them) on how big this particular issue really is.
An absolutely tiny number of outliers. The vast majority of those hospitalised are over-65, suffering from multiple co-morbidities, and are overweight or obese. When looking at deaths, it's over 90% who have one or more of those factors.
And what percentage of Americans have one or more of those factors? It's not an absolutely tiny amount.

Kiero

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #523 on: September 04, 2020, 06:24:02 AM »
And what percentage of Americans have one or more of those factors? It's not an absolutely tiny amount.
I live in the UK, I couldn't really give a toss about Americans. Similarly, strangers who don't look after themselves aren't really my concern either.
Utterly excessive and unnecessary laws restricting the freedom of perfectly healthy people at little risk concern me, on the other hand
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HappyDaze

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #524 on: September 04, 2020, 06:37:37 AM »
And what percentage of Americans have one or more of those factors? It's not an absolutely tiny amount.
I live in the UK, I couldn't really give a toss about Americans. Similarly, strangers who don't look after themselves aren't really my concern either.
Utterly excessive and unnecessary laws restricting the freedom of perfectly healthy people at little risk concern me, on the other hand
Not concerned about others? Well, fuck you then buddy. If you don't care about the lives of others, why the fuck should anyone give a fuck about your freedom, you 'perfectly healthy' asshole?