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Author Topic: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.  (Read 39917 times)

HappyDaze

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Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #495 on: August 31, 2020, 02:49:10 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1147032
LOL.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website disclosed the shockingly small number of people who died from only the Wuhan coronavirus, with no other cause of death mentioned. Hold on to your hat because here it is: out of the 161,392 deaths in the CDC data, just six percent, about 9,700 deaths, were attributed to the coronavirus alone. According to the CDC, the other 94 percent had an average of 2.6 additional conditions or causes of deaths, such as heart disease, diabetes, and sepsis.

We crippled our nation for 9,700 deaths.

LOL.

You're reading that ass-backwards. 6% of those that died didn't have anything else going on, but consider that any single comorbidity--like hypertension which > 45% of Americans are estimated to have--takes them out of those numbers even though hypertension isn't likely to have killed them on its own. But, since we're using a site that Media Bias/Fact Check says "Overall, we rate Townhall Right Biased and Questionable based on consistent one-sided reporting that always favors the right and numerous failed fact checks," this is likely no surprise at all to anyone that it's totally skewed.


HappyDaze

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« Reply #497 on: August 31, 2020, 04:32:38 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1147042
Try again. It's the stats from the CDC itself.

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities

Yes, and if you go directly to the CDC, you can see why the way Townhall presents it is duplicitous. They're trying to say that 94% of those that died with COVID didn't die because of COVID and that's not what it means. Take all of those that had HTN along with COVID; the HTN was not itself the immediate cause of death despite how Townhall wants to make it look, and it likely would not have been a cause of death without COVID for the vast majority of those with HTN.

Brad

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Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #498 on: August 31, 2020, 09:06:56 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1147032
LOL.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website disclosed the shockingly small number of people who died from only the Wuhan coronavirus, with no other cause of death mentioned. Hold on to your hat because here it is: out of the 161,392 deaths in the CDC data, just six percent, about 9,700 deaths, were attributed to the coronavirus alone. According to the CDC, the other 94 percent had an average of 2.6 additional conditions or causes of deaths, such as heart disease, diabetes, and sepsis.

We crippled our nation for 9,700 deaths.

LOL.

And you can already see the spin spin spin going on...scrubbing Twitter, shadowbans on Facebook, etc. You're not allowed to quote the fucking CDC, that bastion of unassailable scientific sovereignty, if their numbers don't match the media narrative.

INB4 "FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" Literal LOL...anyone with a lick of sense knew this was bullshit from the start.

HappyDaze

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« Reply #499 on: August 31, 2020, 09:22:58 AM »
I bet traffic fatalities are incredibly low once you eliminate everyone with a comorbidity. Nope, the high speed impact can't be held responsible if the people in the car have even one of: high blood pressure, diabetes, hyperlipidemia,  or obesity. Fuck, cooking statistics is easy.

Shasarak

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« Reply #500 on: August 31, 2020, 05:25:15 PM »
Quote from: HappyDaze;1147062
I bet traffic fatalities are incredibly low once you eliminate everyone with a comorbidity. Nope, the high speed impact can't be held responsible if the people in the car have even one of: high blood pressure, diabetes, hyperlipidemia,  or obesity. Fuck, cooking statistics is easy.

The most amusing thing to me is the fact that if you die in a high speed car accident and your corpse is tested positive for Wuhan flu then you get recorded as having died of Wuhan Flu.
There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

HappyDaze

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« Reply #501 on: August 31, 2020, 05:56:44 PM »
Quote from: Shasarak;1147113
The most amusing thing to me is the fact that if you die in a high speed car accident and your corpse is tested positive for Wuhan flu then you get recorded as having died of Wuhan Flu.

The quality source for this "fact" would be?

dkabq

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« Reply #502 on: August 31, 2020, 06:26:42 PM »
Quote from: HappyDaze;1147115
The quality source for this "fact" would be?


From searching on "crash victim reported as covid-19 death"
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/questions-over-the-accuracy-of-how-the-state-tracks-covid-deaths/283-0b1b7b6c-695e-4313-92cf-a4cfd7510721
https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
https://www.tristatehomepage.com/illinois-news/illinois-looking-to-remove-inaccurate-numbers-from-covid-19-death-toll/

Likely not enough to materially change the overall numbers. But it does undermine them. And when you start piling on...

go to Chinatown to celebrate Chinese New Year's/lock-down
don't wear a mask/wear a mask
flatten the curve/if it saves even a single life
anti lockdown and 2A protests; you are literally killing grannies/(much larger) anti-racism protests; apparently makes you immune to Covid

Let's not forget sending Covid positive patients to nursing homes. And don't get me started on the quality of the Covid modeling, or that only deaths from Covid are accounted for and deaths from lockdown are ignored.

In a previous life, I worked on a project with very strict (NQA1) quality assurance requirements. As part of the project there was an analysis performed by one of its many partner organizations. During the discovery process (the project was litigated) emails were found where the analysts were taking shit about QA. That was deemed to have tainted the work. It had to be scrapped and redone by another organization, at a cost of $1M.

dkabq

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« Reply #503 on: August 31, 2020, 06:56:51 PM »
Quote from: HappyDaze;1147045
Yes, and if you go directly to the CDC, you can see why the way Townhall presents it is duplicitous. They're trying to say that 94% of those that died with COVID didn't die because of COVID and that's not what it means. Take all of those that had HTN along with COVID; the HTN was not itself the immediate cause of death despite how Townhall wants to make it look, and it likely would not have been a cause of death without COVID for the vast majority of those with HTN.


I have to partially agree with HD here. As he points out, just because you have one or more comorbidities doesn't mean that Covid isn't the proximate cause of your death. Conversely, some number of Covid-recorded deaths could have happened regardless of having Covid (likely correlated with age (16% of age 85+ die every year) and number/severity of comorbidities).The death statistics would have to be recorded in such a way to reflect this. Hell, I would be happy if there was uniform recording methodology, rather than the ad hoc county/state reporting.

The statistics that I find most interesting are that approximately 40% to 50% of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. Furthermore, if you look at deaths by age, 79% of Covid are age 65+, 58% are 75+, 31% are 85+ (i.e., like other illnesses (flu, pneumonia), the older you are, the more likely it is to kill you). Also, here in the Land of Enchantment, about another 40% are Native Americans on the reservations. The conclusions I draw are that the old and sick should have been locked down (like you would someone immunocompromised), which would have sufficiently flattened the curve to prevent deaths from inadequate care due to hospitals being overwhelmed. And they should have let the rest of us go about our business, thus avoiding lockdown-related deaths.

jhkim

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« Reply #504 on: September 01, 2020, 04:00:24 AM »
Quote from: dkabq;1147118
I have to partially agree with HD here. As he points out, just because you have one or more comorbidities doesn't mean that Covid isn't the proximate cause of your death. Conversely, some number of Covid-recorded deaths could have happened regardless of having Covid (likely correlated with age (16% of age 85+ die every year) and number/severity of comorbidities).The death statistics would have to be recorded in such a way to reflect this. Hell, I would be happy if there was uniform recording methodology, rather than the ad hoc county/state reporting.
I agree that some number of covid-recorded deaths could have happened regardless of covid. It's likely to be a small difference though, because covid-19 is very fast-acting and has swift mortality compared to the other leading causes like cancer and heart disease. Drawing statistics from all covid-19 infections means that statistics are consistent rather than depending on local practices and rulings on how to classify deaths, especially when most deaths do not have an autopsy to check. This is why the CDC also looks at excess death statistics as part of their covid-19 study. Here's the link on the excess death measurement:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Whether the comorbidity death rate is a 0.05% correction or a 5% correction will depend on what the infection fatality rate really is, which can also be difficult to measure. But the excess death measure is an independent check on that. Plus, there are dozens of countries all of which have measured significant covid-19 deaths. There are valid differing arguments for what's the best way to deal with covid-19, but I don't think there's good argument that it's all a deliberate hoax by the CDC.


Quote from: dkabq;1147118
The statistics that I find most interesting are that approximately 40% to 50% of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. Furthermore, if you look at deaths by age, 79% of Covid are age 65+, 58% are 75+, 31% are 85+ (i.e., like other illnesses (flu, pneumonia), the older you are, the more likely it is to kill you). Also, here in the Land of Enchantment, about another 40% are Native Americans on the reservations. The conclusions I draw are that the old and sick should have been locked down (like you would someone immunocompromised), which would have sufficiently flattened the curve to prevent deaths from inadequate care due to hospitals being overwhelmed. And they should have let the rest of us go about our business, thus avoiding lockdown-related deaths.
I think that's a reasonable position. Mostly, I'm all for discussion of approach to handling it -- which is public policy and inherently involves a lot of trade-offs and choices. My concern is mostly for dismissal of the science that somehow the whole thing is a hoax that has simultaneously fooled opposing countries ranging from Iran to Brazil to Israel. My main question is the practicality of isolating the elderly when the virus is at high concentrations from spreading freely through the rest of the population. Many elderly live with younger family and/or depend on care from younger people, and are mostly *not* in nursing homes. It's a reasonable idea, and I'd want to see someone's plan about how it would work and the estimated effects.

In the U.S., since the states are handling the isolation and lockdowns each in their own way, it would seem like a good case to have a red state try this. If no red states are trying this, I'd want to know why.


Quote from: dkabq;1147117
From searching on "crash victim reported as covid-19 death"
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/questions-over-the-accuracy-of-how-the-state-tracks-covid-deaths/283-0b1b7b6c-695e-4313-92cf-a4cfd7510721
https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
https://www.tristatehomepage.com/illinois-news/illinois-looking-to-remove-inaccurate-numbers-from-covid-19-death-toll/

Likely not enough to materially change the overall numbers. But it does undermine them. And when you start piling on...
There have been errors and mistakes in covid-19 reporting on both sides, but my concern is that reading only about edge cases skews perspective as if they make a difference in the big picture. When you pile on a dozen 0.01% effects, you get an 0.12% effect -- which is still insignificant.

Spinachcat

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« Reply #505 on: September 01, 2020, 05:15:18 AM »
Every year, people with co-morbidities die from the flu. We've known for a long time those with co-morbidities are the most likely to die every year. I'm sure the vast majority of those 80k Americans who died in 2018 from the flu also had 2-3 deadly factors working against them.  

Which is what's most important here regarding CoronaChan. It's just a "flu variant" - and so laughably obviously so - and if we weren't bullshitting the numbers left and right, we'd see 2020 was nothing more than a bad flu year.

And what do we shutdown, lockdown and panic about in a bad flu year? Absolutely nothing.

By hey, all this panicking for a pittance of deaths out of 350 MILLION surely won't have any negative long term affects on children, teens or the economy!

Remember little ones, be afraid. Be afraid of invisible things. Which could be everywhere. No one is safe. Everyone around you is diseased. You might be diseased. Now grow up with these memories seared into your skulls.

...and become the weakest, most obedient and most broken generation in human history.


Quote from: Brad;1147059
You're not allowed to quote the fucking CDC, that bastion of unassailable scientific sovereignty, if their numbers don't match the media narrative.

I wonder if social media behave the same if their sacred WHO masters agreed with the CDC numbers.

Hawkwing7423

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« Reply #506 on: September 01, 2020, 08:37:06 PM »
Every radio station's hourly news segment starts with new COVID cases every time. The fear porn mongering by the media has been endless.
USA is now merely 5 away in deaths per million from Sweden which did almost none of this bullshit.


If you sit in a restaurant the COVID won't get you, but if you stand it will!
If you protest with BLM it won't get you but if you go to church it will!


Dennis Prager today said that 1 in 3 restaurants in California may close this year.
https://pjmedia.com/columns/dennis-prager/2020/09/01/the-lockdown-has-gone-from-a-mistake-to-a-crime-n871865


My wife and my coworkers believe the narrative completely. I have to say the mainstream media, which at this point I consider simply evil, have hit a home run this time. I despise them but I admire their excellence in sowing endless fear.

HappyDaze

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #507 on: September 02, 2020, 04:14:55 AM »
Dennis Prager today said
Abiother worthless source of propaganda. Take a look at the fact checks and biases of both PJ Media and PragerU before you accept any "facts" from Dennis Prager.

spon

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #508 on: September 02, 2020, 05:40:03 AM »
So, if COVID was only responsible for 9K deaths, WTF caused all the excess deaths compared to last year? Because that's 200K people dead from "something", if it's not COVID. That's about 10% over the expected mortality. Something's doing it and if it's not COVID, what? 

Pat

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« Reply #509 on: September 02, 2020, 05:57:36 AM »
Dennis Prager today said
Abiother worthless source of propaganda. Take a look at the fact checks and biases of both PJ Media and PragerU before you accept any "facts" from Dennis Prager.
Don't really know much about Prager, and the 1 in 3 seems to be an off the cuff type of comment because it's not sourced or even expanded on, but it's not an unreasonable number.

Here's the NYT, which has a very strong bias in the other direction, saying that 1 in 3 small businesses in NYC will close due to the shutdowns:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-small-businesses-closing-coronavirus.html

And here's a Yelp survey, which has been widely quoted by numerous news outlets (including leftist ones like CNN), which suggests up to 60% of restaurants, across the country, that were shutdown are gone for good.
https://www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/yea-q2-2020
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 06:09:23 AM by Pat »