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Author Topic: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.  (Read 11131 times)

Spinachcat

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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2020, 04:59:57 AM »
Paul Joseph Watson, in a totally dorkmaster hat, explains how the UK defeated CoronaChan.


SHARK

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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2020, 05:07:40 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1132518
Paul Joseph Watson, in a totally dorkmaster hat, explains how the UK defeated CoronaChan.


Greetings!

Paul Joseph Watson is fucking *hilarious*! I've seen many of his programs. They are awesome!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the fa├žade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
"Delenda Est Parthia!"

KingCheops

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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2020, 12:57:05 PM »
Love PJW.  Hits the nail on the head with most of his videos.

That being said I totally regret questioning Sweden's approach and getting exasperated at all the usual Swedophiles talking about how wonderful they are.  In this particular case -- they were right!

jhkim

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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2020, 07:02:24 PM »
Quote from: KingCheops;1132561
Love PJW.  Hits the nail on the head with most of his videos.

That being said I totally regret questioning Sweden's approach and getting exasperated at all the usual Swedophiles talking about how wonderful they are.  In this particular case -- they were right!
Even if someone does turn out to be right, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have questioned it!! What I find most exasperating about the covid-19 issue is how many people default to an answer based on their politics without questioning it -- and furthermore, anyone who holds a different view is clearly insane and/or brainwashed.

Covid-19 is a very new disease, and different studies have found significantly different infection fatality rates as well as other differing features. There has been little time for in-depth analysis, and the conditions vary a lot from country to country. I don't think that six months is sufficient for absolute knowledge of it. We're moving very quickly in studies -- but rushed studies tend to produce inconsistent results.

I'm not convinced that there is a single best approach to public health that works best for every community and country. Some countries have done better than others in terms of rates, but much of that is probably due to differing conditions - not because of the different government response.

Pat

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« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2020, 07:41:03 PM »
Quote from: jhkim;1132591
Even if someone does turn out to be right, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have questioned it!! What I find most exasperating about the covid-19 issue is how many people default to an answer based on their politics without questioning it -- and furthermore, anyone who holds a different view is clearly insane and/or brainwashed.

Covid-19 is a very new disease, and different studies have found significantly different infection fatality rates as well as other differing features. There has been little time for in-depth analysis, and the conditions vary a lot from country to country. I don't think that six months is sufficient for absolute knowledge of it. We're moving very quickly in studies -- but rushed studies tend to produce inconsistent results.

I'm not convinced that there is a single best approach to public health that works best for every community and country. Some countries have done better than others in terms of rates, but much of that is probably due to differing conditions - not because of the different government response.
That's largely correct, they were acting on imperfect knowledge, and they still don't have a good grasp of the disease. This does take time, but it's also bringing into stark contrast a number of shortcomings. For instance, it's highlighting the deficiencies in the approval processes, which have done tremendous damage (like the FDA refusing to allow anyone except the CDC to develop a test), or have been waived without any damage (and thus shown how much is completely unnecessary). It's also worth noting that much of the "research" related to COVID-19 has been terrible, by the standards of evidence-based medicine:
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2045
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3124652/

Another problem is the government agencies have been far too cautious, in some ways. Clinical guidelines or agency standards generally require a high degree of evidence, which just doesn't work when something's new. One example is masks, which common sense tells us should block at least some of the viral load (and worked quite effectively in Asia), but the lack of explicit studies supporting it meant far too many agencies (like the CDC again) were recommending against them, until they did the hamster test. This isn't out of the realm of medical science: Individual physicians have to make subjective decisions all the time based on incomplete evidence. We need to find a middle ground for new and emergent health threats. This would even help in normal times, because there are always new or poorly understood health threats, and waiting until they're sure ends up killing a lot of people.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa644/5848814
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852

By contrast, governments have also been far too reckless, when it comes to areas outside their expertise. The economy is the classic example, and if the world was just they'd be trying all the people who were instrumental in shutting down the economy for genocide.
https://wellbeingtrust.org/areas-of-focus/policy-and-advocacy/reports/projected-deaths-of-despair-during-covid-19/
https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/policy_brief_on_covid_impact_on_children_16_april_2020.pdf
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 07:53:54 PM by Pat »

Spinachcat

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« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2020, 08:09:57 PM »
Quote from: KingCheops;1132561
That being said I totally regret questioning Sweden's approach and getting exasperated at all the usual Swedophiles talking about how wonderful they are.  In this particular case -- they were right!

Sweden smelled the sham, but why everyone else drank the KungFlu Kool-Aid might never be known or understood. The amount of coordinated ignorance in lockstep is stunning, as are the continued laughable lockdowns.

The next step in this dance will be interesting.
Will the protests be blamed for "a huge spike" (LOL) that requires the lockdowns to continue?
And if so, how do they "blame, yet not blame, because blame would be racist"?
Will the new story be "protests didn't cause any cases, but we must stay in lockdown because...reasons"?

rgalex

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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2020, 09:39:21 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1132603
Sweden smelled the sham, but why everyone else drank the KungFlu Kool-Aid might never be known or understood. The amount of coordinated ignorance in lockstep is stunning, as are the continued laughable lockdowns.

The next step in this dance will be interesting.
Will the protests be blamed for "a huge spike" (LOL) that requires the lockdowns to continue?
And if so, how do they "blame, yet not blame, because blame would be racist"?
Will the new story be "protests didn't cause any cases, but we must stay in lockdown because...reasons"?


They are way ahead of you.

Quote
Mark D. Levine @MarkLevineNYC (Chair of New York City Council health committee. Representing District 7, Uptown Manhattan (Washington Heights, West Harlem, UWS).

Jun 3
Let's be clear about something: if there is a spike in coronavirus cases in the next two weeks, don't blame the protesters.

Blame racism.

And let's remember that the police are increasing covid risk by:
* using tear gas
* herding demonstrators into tight spaces
* putting people in crowded jails

KingCheops

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« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2020, 11:35:40 AM »
Lol well Statista just released some numbers comparing Sweden to Norway/Denmark so I'm back to questioning.  I guess we'd need to see Lockdown Deaths + Kung Flu Deaths versus each other but I don't think that'll ever happen.  To hard to sort signal from noise.

Apart from being in a cushy white-collar job where I can work from home and being a lazy bastard who didn't want to have to commute to work anymore I was on the "this is all overblown and just a bad seasonal flu" from the get go.  I'd been on the "what about the other 80% of people who are getting crushed" from the get go.  Really pissed my wife off because she got fully on board with the media fear monger (despite teasing me in January for stocking up on emergency food).

jhkim

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« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2020, 01:57:52 PM »
Quote from: KingCheops;1132663
Lol well Statista just released some numbers comparing Sweden to Norway/Denmark so I'm back to questioning.  I guess we'd need to see Lockdown Deaths + Kung Flu Deaths versus each other but I don't think that'll ever happen.  To hard to sort signal from noise.

Apart from being in a cushy white-collar job where I can work from home and being a lazy bastard who didn't want to have to commute to work anymore I was on the "this is all overblown and just a bad seasonal flu" from the get go.  I'd been on the "what about the other 80% of people who are getting crushed" from the get go.  Really pissed my wife off because she got fully on board with the media fear monger (despite teasing me in January for stocking up on emergency food).

Yeah, I think questioning is good. According to Pat, the answers are known and further, your wife is participating in genocide. I consider that over-the-top ridiculous. There's a lot of controversy over the infection rate in Sweden, but I think the more telling issue is what's happening with the economy.

So here's recent financial news in Scandinavia:

Quote
The Norwegian economy contracted 4.7% in April from March but the outlook for the rest of the year now looks less bleak than it did in late April, Statistics Norway (SSB) said on Friday.

The mainland economy, which excludes the volatile offshore oil and gas production, is now forecast to drop 3.9% for the full year compared to the 5.5% fall predicted on April 24 when Norway was in lockdown to halt the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Source: https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/norways-april-gdp-falls-4-7-outlook-seen-less-dire-2

Quote
Sweden's highly contested response to Covid-19 left much of the economy open. Even so, the country is now headed for its worst recession since World War II.

Scandinavia's biggest economy will shrink 7% this year, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Tuesday. Shortly after she spoke, the debt office revealed an historic 30-fold spike in borrowing to cover emergency spending amid record job losses. A separate survey showed 40% of businesses in Sweden's service sector now fear bankruptcy.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-19/sweden-in-very-deep-economic-crisis-despite-soft-lockdown

This doesn't mean that Sweden's approach was wrong -- quite possibly they'd be worse off if they had implemented a lockdown like Norway. Different economies are different. But it's one data point against the narrative that the economies would have been fine if only we hadn't had lockdowns.

DocJones

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« Reply #24 on: June 05, 2020, 02:14:31 PM »
Target just announced early looting hours for seniors.

Steven Mitchell

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« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2020, 02:32:26 PM »
Quote from: jhkim;1132591
Even if someone does turn out to be right, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have questioned it!! What I find most exasperating about the covid-19 issue is how many people default to an answer based on their politics without questioning it -- and furthermore, anyone who holds a different view is clearly insane and/or brainwashed.

The inherent problem is that the "credentialed class" is increasingly untrustworthy--not least because they add to all of their other (typical human) faults that for so many of them, what they say has a political motivation.  So it is only self-defense to direct some of the skepticism towards their motivations.  When the thing "noted expert" wants to happen is suspiciously always exactly in line with their usual politics, no matter how little sense it makes in this case, one starts to doubt their judgment or even honesty.

No doubt the usual media being completely in the tank for their own causes is not helping.  For example, I might or might not lend more or less credence to something Dr. Birx or Dr. Fauci said about all of this--keeping in mind their expertise is not in, for example, the economy--but I lend absolutely zero credence to any media report short of an unfiltered transcript of their remarks.  (And even then, I'm not going to be shocked when it turns out the transcript was edited.)  Nor would it be correct to lay this "selective reporting and editing" problem entirely on the left.  It is fair at the moment to lay it entirely on the "globalist" side, whether left, right, or "neutral venal".  

Everything a globalist says is defacto suspect because their track record sucks so poorly.  If they want more respect, earn it, damn it!
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 02:33:44 PM by Steven Mitchell »

Pat

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« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2020, 03:55:42 PM »
Quote from: jhkim;1132676
Yeah, I think questioning is good. According to Pat, the answers are known and further, your wife is participating in genocide. I consider that over-the-top ridiculous. There's a lot of controversy over the infection rate in Sweden, but I think the more telling issue is what's happening with the economy.
Fuck you, you miserable piece of shit. Stop putting words in my mouth.

I explicitly said, in fact it was the whole first paragraph of that very post, that we have incomplete information, and that we don't yet have a good grasp on the disease. And I provided sources backing that up. That's 180 degrees away from claiming the answers are known. I've pointed out flaws in the data on both sides, including things like the death rate in Sweden -- which is lower than the European or world averages, but higher than in the other Scandinavian countries. Though also be careful where you source your data -- I've seen a lot of graphs comparing Sweden's overall death toll to the other Scandinavian countries, which is blatantly misleading fake news because Sweden has roughly double the population of any of the other Scandinavian countries.

What's appalling -- and genocidal -- is the complete disregard for the economy shown by those making public policy. We have politicians and medical doctors talking about how we must follow the science and shutdown the economy. Except, what science? Epistemologists are experts on the nature of disease and the spread of infection, not on the economy. In fact, most of them have spent their entire lives in the public sector, so they don't even know what it's like to work in the free market. Yet they've set themselves up as experts on something they quite literally know less about than an average employee in an average company. By contrast, there are no economists up on the stage at any of these briefings. While they do occasionally trot out a few bankers and CEOs, unless you think Phillip Morris determines the science on smoking, or that Exxon should be considered the authoritative voice on the ecological impact of fracking or oil spills, you can't call that science. Not only that, but the economic shutdowns they instituted are completely untested and unprecedented. There's no "science" even on the epistemological side, except some wild speculation and theories.

The word "economy" comes from "economize". We have limited resources, and must decide how to use them, and the economy is how we allocate those resources. It's trivial and disingenuous to say this is about haircuts or McDonald's, because the economy is also how we feed ourselves, how we make medicines, and how we train people in all the specialized tasks needed to support the complex modern world. It's how we fill stores with supplies when they're depleted, how we develop and bring to market new life-saving technologies, and for many people, it's the source of self-esteem and pride. It's our lifeblood. But they shut it down without consulting any experts, looking at the science, or examining the trade offs. Those who destroyed it destroyed livelihoods and lives. They reduced incomes, educational opportunities, health outcomes, and cost lives. They also hurt the ability to respond to the pandemic -- two or three days ago NPR was talking about how the damage to the supply chain was forcing medical labs to source all kinds of alternate supplies, and how that was hurting their ability to respond to the coronavirus. (Though of course, being NPR, they blamed it on the virus, instead of on the economic shutdown.)

Yet people like Andrew Cuomo, who literally forced corona-positive patients on nursing homes and thus is single-handedly responsible for a vast number of deaths in NYC, are celebrated as heroes because they get up on stage and say "we can't put a value on human life" and use that to justify new lockdowns. Which is just compounding a deadly error with even more death, because they're ignoring the lives that will be lost and diminished due to the shutdowns.

The current estimate is each death lost to the coronavirus results in a loss of 11 or 13 years of life (men and women, respectively), so the 110K+ deaths works out to 1.3+ million years of life lost. One estimate suggest that more 700,000 life-years are being lost due to the economy shutdown, per month. Which is clearly not a good trade off, even if we assume the economic lockdowns had a major effect. Which is unlikely, because while it's still unclear how much of an effect the economic shutdowns had on the disease, the data is ambiguous. Even without considering the other ways a damaged economy hurts people, or how the infection fatality rate estimates have plummeted, that's a compelling argument for immediately and absolutely eliminating all the lockdowns.

But we don't need those relatively new assessments to recognize that public officials' completely one-sided attention to coronavirus deaths, and complete lack of attention to the economic costs, was criminal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 04:14:06 PM by Pat »

jhkim

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« Reply #27 on: June 05, 2020, 07:03:15 PM »
Quote from: Pat;1132687
Fuck you, you miserable piece of shit. Stop putting words in my mouth.

I explicitly said, in fact it was the whole first paragraph of that very post, that we have incomplete information, and that we don't yet have a good grasp on the disease. And I provided sources backing that up. That's 180 degrees away from claiming the answers are known. I've pointed out flaws in the data on both sides, including things like the death rate in Sweden -- which is lower than the European or world averages, but higher than in the other Scandinavian countries.

Fuck you too, Pat. You accuse people of fucking *genocide* if they don't agree with you, and then you act all wounded that I haven't been nice. Suck it up, snowflake. If you're going to accuse other people of genocide, then you should expect that you'll be called some names too.

Quote from: Pat;1132687
The current estimate is each death lost to the coronavirus results in a loss of 11 or 13 years of life (men and women, respectively), so the 110K+ deaths works out to 1.3+ million years of life lost. One estimate suggest that more 700,000 life-years are being lost due to the economy shutdown, per month. Which is clearly not a good trade off, even if we assume the economic lockdowns had a major effect. Which is unlikely, because while it's still unclear how much of an effect the economic shutdowns had on the disease, the data is ambiguous. Even without considering the other ways a damaged economy hurts people, or how the infection fatality rate estimates have plummeted, that's a compelling argument for immediately and absolutely eliminating all the lockdowns.

But we don't need those relatively new assessments to recognize that public officials' completely one-sided attention to coronavirus deaths, and complete lack of attention to the economic costs, was criminal.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-economists-calculate-the-costs-and-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life


The first link doesn't make any overall conclusion about the cost/benefit. And the second link is an *opinion* piece. The authors are qualified economists, but it's still an opinion by a few authors. Economists are not unified in condemning the lockdowns. For example, my sister is a Finance PhD who is a deputy director at the SEC, and she is divided on it as well.

All of this is based on the assertion about the 700,000 life-years per month that the shutdown is causing. But disagreeing with your asserted numbers isn't a crime - let alone *genocide*. I posted earlier about how economic recessions have previously lead to a *lower* mortality rate, not a higher one. Here's another article on that study - again, predating the coronavirus, and based on peer-reviewed studies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recessions-unemployment-mortality-rates-2015-10?op=1

Pat

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« Reply #28 on: June 05, 2020, 07:39:59 PM »
Quote from: jhkim;1132709
Fuck you too, Pat. You accuse people of fucking *genocide* if they don't agree with you, and then you act all wounded that I haven't been nice. Suck it up, snowflake. If you're going to accuse other people of genocide, then you should expect that you'll be called some names too.

I don't give a fuck whether you agree with me, this is about you putting words in my mouth. False words, which I never said. In fact, as I pointed out very clearly, it was exactly the opposite of what I said. That's what makes you a miserable piece of shit.

Being a genocide apologist also makes you a piece of shit, but I wasn't talking about that, because you hadn't made it clear that you support the unnecessary death of millions. But I'm sure Andrew Cuomo appreciates your support.

Quote from: jhkim;1132709
The first link doesn't make any overall conclusion about the cost/benefit. And the second link is an *opinion* piece. The authors are qualified economists, but it's still an opinion by a few authors. Economists are not unified in condemning the lockdowns. For example, my sister is a Finance PhD who is a deputy director at the SEC, and she is divided on it as well.

All of this is based on the assertion about the 700,000 life-years per month that the shutdown is causing. But disagreeing with your asserted numbers isn't a crime - let alone *genocide*. I posted earlier about how economic recessions have previously lead to a *lower* mortality rate, not a higher one. Here's another article on that study - again, predating the coronavirus, and based on peer-reviewed studies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recessions-unemployment-mortality-rates-2015-10?op=1

More things I never said.

For instance, I didn't say anyone disagreeing with the numbers I posted is a crime. In fact, I stated multiple times, in both of my last two posts, that we don't have all the data. That there's a lot of ambiguity. And nowhere did I claim that either of the sources were definitive, or comprehensive. In fact, the only claim I stated with reasonable certainty was the average of 11 or 13 years of life lost, when someone dies of COVID-19. I used qualifying words for everything else, quite deliberately, because I do not consider them the final word. But they're what we have, and give us something we can assess and discuss.

This is the problem I have talking with you. You keep on putting words in my mouth. Words I never said, implied, or believe.

And as I pointed out when you brought up recession mortality rates earlier, almost everybody prefers boom times. If there's a lower mortality rate during economic downturns, what does that mean? It means people are voluntarily choosing to take on a certain degree of risk. Like the public did, when they pressured the federal government to remove the 55 mph speed limit. Like women do, when they decide to bring a child to term. Like we all do, when we cross the street.

Incidentally, a finance director isn't an economist.

Pat

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« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2020, 02:05:41 PM »
Here's a very interesting article.

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved
Quote
Based on a broad array of scientific data, Just Facts has computed that the anxiety created by reactions to Covid-19--such as stay-at-home orders, business shutdowns, media exaggerations, and legitimate concerns about the virus--will destroy at least seven times more years of human life than can possibly be saved by lockdowns to control the spread of the disease. This figure is a bare minimum, and the actual one is likely more than 90 times greater.
I'm not familiar with Just Facts, but the article lays out its reasoning in detail, is extensively backed by references to good sources, the conclusions were vetted by a psychiatrist, and they use the most conservative results (in favor of lockdowns) from a suite of studies. It's devastating, and even if there are some valid critiques, the structure and references are a great resource.

Note the article is more than a month old, so this information has been out there for a while.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 02:08:38 PM by Pat »