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Author Topic: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.  (Read 341760 times)

Pat
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1785 on: April 13, 2021, 02:34:40 PM »
I would like to note the clots occurred in six people out of 6.8 million vaccinated.

You have a better chance of walking outside after getting vaccinated and being hit by a car.
I would like to note that over the last 15 months in the US, 246 childhood deaths were associated covid-19, out of a total population of about 74 million. Children are a lot more likely to drown or die in a car accident. Why were schools closed?

Or why weren't schools closed, decades earlier? About twice as many children die each year from the regular flu.

Statistics are important, but when taken out of context they're just another type of emotional appeal. Humans aren't good at assessing low-probability risks, and almost all public discourse on the subject is about 30 steps below garbage.

Brad

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1786 on: April 13, 2021, 02:57:04 PM »
Or why weren't schools closed, decades earlier? About twice as many children die each year from the regular flu.

Because people back then weren't such immense pussies.
It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.

This Guy
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1787 on: April 13, 2021, 03:09:10 PM »
It's like a visible, physical version of autism.
I don't want to play with you.

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1788 on: April 13, 2021, 03:32:39 PM »
Or why weren't schools closed, decades earlier? About twice as many children die each year from the regular flu.

Because people back then weren't such immense pussies.

Those heady, ancient days of two years ago?
I made a blog: Southern Style GURPS

jhkim

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1789 on: April 13, 2021, 04:20:22 PM »
I would like to note the clots occurred in six people out of 6.8 million vaccinated.

You have a better chance of walking outside after getting vaccinated and being hit by a car.
I would like to note that over the last 15 months in the US, 246 childhood deaths were associated covid-19, out of a total population of about 74 million. Children are a lot more likely to drown or die in a car accident. Why were schools closed?

Or why weren't schools closed, decades earlier? About twice as many children die each year from the regular flu.

Schools were closed in many countries because it reduces the spread through the population overall. If the disease spreads through schools, it doesn't just affect children - it also affects parents, guardians, grandparents, and teachers, as well as everyone else to whom those people spread to. With a new disease, we have the possibility of saving hundreds of thousands of lives of all ages by slowing its spread until we have better treatment and vaccination.

With the flu, first of all, the overall death rate is at least 10 times lower. Secondly, covid-19 is more specific and could potentially be largely stopped - so there are more lives to be saved, and reason to think that life-saving efforts are more effective.

Also, you're taking the number of children who actually died of covid even with school closures and other precautions to be the same as if we did essentially nothing (i.e. treated it like the flu). But the covid deaths per capita in different U.S. states and different countries is quite significant - which suggests that at least some things make a big difference in rate. U.S. states vary from 33 to 280 deaths per 100k.

Mistwell

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1790 on: April 13, 2021, 05:04:49 PM »
That's one of the stranger things about the public health response -- they're recommending people who had the virus take the vaccine. That's usually pointless, because a vaccine typically just induces or mimics the body's usual immune response. If you've had the virus, you're immune. But they're not 100% sure of that with covid-19, and they're not 100% sure how long it lasts, so they're doubling up just in case those unlikely scenarios are true.

Both my wife and another person I know saw lingering covid symptoms clear up after the first dose of the vaccine. For my friend, she had severe long-covid symptoms, diagnosed by her doctor with lots of meds to address it. And now, after just her first dose of the vaccine, most have cleared up after having suffered from them for 6 months.

This is a really weird virus.

Quote
Taking the vaccine is probably worth the downsides for those who are high risk, like the elderly, those with preexisting conditions, or those with high risk of exposure like frontline healthcare workers. But in many other cases, the net benefit for an individual who hasn't had the disease is minor or even negative in many cases. Younger, healthy people are extremely unlikely to get a severe case, whereas strong reactions like your wife's aren't uncommon, meaning it's a trade off between a very unlikely but dangerous circumstance and a quite likely negative condition that could aggravate other problems, including as-yet unknown ones. The reason it's being pushed so hard to everyone is because of collective public health reasons, not for the benefit of the individual. For many, cost/benefit seems to be mostly a wash; it's more "close your eyes and think of Fauci" than anything else.

But for someone who's already been infected, the trade offs skew dramatically further against, because it's rather unlikely the vaccine will provide any benefit they already lack.

Yeah, no. Younger healthy people are unlikely to get a severe case but long term harmful symptoms are now very common for otherwise young and healthy people. People love to analyze this in terms of people either dying or being fine if they get Covid, but that's not reality. Reality is it's a spectrum of harms from the virus, and a LOT LOT LOT of people were experiencing ongoing harmful impacts from getting covid which were not "Died" but which are pretty fucking meaningful to your quality of life if you have them. Current studies are showing that for the 90% who experienced only mild COVID-19 illness, one-third continue to have lingering effects even 9 months after their illness.  Stuff like "I used to jog 3 miles every morning and now I am out of breath going up my stairs." The study I just read said, "Many of these individuals are young and have no pre-existing medical conditions, indicating that even relatively healthy individuals may face long-term impacts from their illness."

For those who have already had Covid, the impact skews HARD to helping them if they are the 1/3 who have lingering effects from the virus. Because so far the vaccine is the only thing that helps get rid of those symptoms.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2021, 05:09:08 PM by Mistwell »

Pat
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1791 on: April 13, 2021, 05:51:43 PM »
Schools were closed in many countries because it reduces the spread through the population overall. If the disease spreads through schools, it doesn't just affect children - it also affects parents, guardians, grandparents, and teachers, as well as everyone else to whom those people spread to. With a new disease, we have the possibility of saving hundreds of thousands of lives of all ages by slowing its spread until we have better treatment and vaccination.
That's a bald-faced lie. We knew from very early on that even the kids who caught the disease weren't spreading it to adults at anywhere near the rate that covid-19 was spreading through the normal population. Still not clear why, but the evidence was unambiguous.

The school closings were due to the teachers' and administrators' fear and their powerful political sway, not any concern for children (for whom remote learning was disastrous failure), or for the families of the children.

With the flu, first of all, the overall death rate is at least 10 times lower.
Another lie. Among children (the group we're talking about), the flu is more deadly than covid-19.

Pat
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1792 on: April 13, 2021, 05:56:01 PM »
That's one of the stranger things about the public health response -- they're recommending people who had the virus take the vaccine. That's usually pointless, because a vaccine typically just induces or mimics the body's usual immune response. If you've had the virus, you're immune. But they're not 100% sure of that with covid-19, and they're not 100% sure how long it lasts, so they're doubling up just in case those unlikely scenarios are true.

Both my wife and another person I know saw lingering covid symptoms clear up after the first dose of the vaccine. For my friend, she had severe long-covid symptoms, diagnosed by her doctor with lots of meds to address it. And now, after just her first dose of the vaccine, most have cleared up after having suffered from them for 6 months.

This is a really weird virus.
I'd be curious to see some studies on long covid and the vaccines.

Completely concur that it's a strange virus.

Quote
Taking the vaccine is probably worth the downsides for those who are high risk, like the elderly, those with preexisting conditions, or those with high risk of exposure like frontline healthcare workers. But in many other cases, the net benefit for an individual who hasn't had the disease is minor or even negative in many cases. Younger, healthy people are extremely unlikely to get a severe case, whereas strong reactions like your wife's aren't uncommon, meaning it's a trade off between a very unlikely but dangerous circumstance and a quite likely negative condition that could aggravate other problems, including as-yet unknown ones. The reason it's being pushed so hard to everyone is because of collective public health reasons, not for the benefit of the individual. For many, cost/benefit seems to be mostly a wash; it's more "close your eyes and think of Fauci" than anything else.

But for someone who's already been infected, the trade offs skew dramatically further against, because it's rather unlikely the vaccine will provide any benefit they already lack.

Yeah, no. Younger healthy people are unlikely to get a severe case but long term harmful symptoms are now very common for otherwise young and healthy people. People love to analyze this in terms of people either dying or being fine if they get Covid, but that's not reality. Reality is it's a spectrum of harms from the virus, and a LOT LOT LOT of people were experiencing ongoing harmful impacts from getting covid which were not "Died" but which are pretty fucking meaningful to your quality of life if you have them. Current studies are showing that for the 90% who experienced only mild COVID-19 illness, one-third continue to have lingering effects even 9 months after their illness.  Stuff like "I used to jog 3 miles every morning and now I am out of breath going up my stairs." The study I just read said, "Many of these individuals are young and have no pre-existing medical conditions, indicating that even relatively healthy individuals may face long-term impacts from their illness."

For those who have already had Covid, the impact skews HARD to helping them if they are the 1/3 who have lingering effects from the virus. Because so far the vaccine is the only thing that helps get rid of those symptoms.
Disagree. You're overstating the frequency of severe cases with long-lasting effects among the young and healthy. It happens, but it's still extremely rare.

Mistwell

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1793 on: April 13, 2021, 06:13:04 PM »
That's one of the stranger things about the public health response -- they're recommending people who had the virus take the vaccine. That's usually pointless, because a vaccine typically just induces or mimics the body's usual immune response. If you've had the virus, you're immune. But they're not 100% sure of that with covid-19, and they're not 100% sure how long it lasts, so they're doubling up just in case those unlikely scenarios are true.

Both my wife and another person I know saw lingering covid symptoms clear up after the first dose of the vaccine. For my friend, she had severe long-covid symptoms, diagnosed by her doctor with lots of meds to address it. And now, after just her first dose of the vaccine, most have cleared up after having suffered from them for 6 months.

This is a really weird virus.
I'd be curious to see some studies on long covid and the vaccines.

Completely concur that it's a strange virus.

Quote
Taking the vaccine is probably worth the downsides for those who are high risk, like the elderly, those with preexisting conditions, or those with high risk of exposure like frontline healthcare workers. But in many other cases, the net benefit for an individual who hasn't had the disease is minor or even negative in many cases. Younger, healthy people are extremely unlikely to get a severe case, whereas strong reactions like your wife's aren't uncommon, meaning it's a trade off between a very unlikely but dangerous circumstance and a quite likely negative condition that could aggravate other problems, including as-yet unknown ones. The reason it's being pushed so hard to everyone is because of collective public health reasons, not for the benefit of the individual. For many, cost/benefit seems to be mostly a wash; it's more "close your eyes and think of Fauci" than anything else.

But for someone who's already been infected, the trade offs skew dramatically further against, because it's rather unlikely the vaccine will provide any benefit they already lack.

Yeah, no. Younger healthy people are unlikely to get a severe case but long term harmful symptoms are now very common for otherwise young and healthy people. People love to analyze this in terms of people either dying or being fine if they get Covid, but that's not reality. Reality is it's a spectrum of harms from the virus, and a LOT LOT LOT of people were experiencing ongoing harmful impacts from getting covid which were not "Died" but which are pretty fucking meaningful to your quality of life if you have them. Current studies are showing that for the 90% who experienced only mild COVID-19 illness, one-third continue to have lingering effects even 9 months after their illness.  Stuff like "I used to jog 3 miles every morning and now I am out of breath going up my stairs." The study I just read said, "Many of these individuals are young and have no pre-existing medical conditions, indicating that even relatively healthy individuals may face long-term impacts from their illness."

For those who have already had Covid, the impact skews HARD to helping them if they are the 1/3 who have lingering effects from the virus. Because so far the vaccine is the only thing that helps get rid of those symptoms.
Disagree. You're overstating the frequency of severe cases with long-lasting effects among the young and healthy. It happens, but it's still extremely rare.

In what world is 1/3 "extremely rare?" You saying you know better than the studies on the topic because....reasons?

Pat
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1794 on: April 13, 2021, 06:19:12 PM »

In what world is 1/3 "extremely rare?" You saying you know better than the studies on the topic because....reasons?
[citation needed]

jhkim

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1795 on: April 13, 2021, 06:56:02 PM »
Schools were closed in many countries because it reduces the spread through the population overall. If the disease spreads through schools, it doesn't just affect children - it also affects parents, guardians, grandparents, and teachers, as well as everyone else to whom those people spread to. With a new disease, we have the possibility of saving hundreds of thousands of lives of all ages by slowing its spread until we have better treatment and vaccination.
That's a bald-faced lie. We knew from very early on that even the kids who caught the disease weren't spreading it to adults at anywhere near the rate that covid-19 was spreading through the normal population. Still not clear why, but the evidence was unambiguous.

The school closings were due to the teachers' and administrators' fear and their powerful political sway, not any concern for children (for whom remote learning was disastrous failure), or for the families of the children.

I'm not going to argue about secret political motivations. That seems like a rabbit hole to me. However, school closings happened in dozens of countries from Israel to South Korea. In all the cases that I've read, the stated reason is to reduce community transmission - which includes protecting teachers and families, not just children. Yes, I've seen papers claiming that student-to-student transmission is low compared to the rest of the community - but there have been outbreaks in schools. Papers like the below suggest that transmission is lower in schools, but it still says "cases do increase at moderate to high pre-existing COVID rates".

https://caldercenter.org/publications/what-extent-does-person-schooling-contribute-spread-covid-19-evidence-michigan-and

You can argue that we have known the disease really well and the science is unquestionable that there is no increased risk from in-person schools - but it seems to me that in other places, you have argued that it is right for people to question scientific assurances.


With the flu, first of all, the overall death rate is at least 10 times lower.
Another lie. Among children (the group we're talking about), the flu is more deadly than covid-19.

I was talking about the general population here - not just children. That's what I meant by "overall". Since the stated reason is protecting the community, the deadliness to families and others that children contact is relevant.

Pat
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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1796 on: April 13, 2021, 09:15:25 PM »
Schools were closed in many countries because it reduces the spread through the population overall. If the disease spreads through schools, it doesn't just affect children - it also affects parents, guardians, grandparents, and teachers, as well as everyone else to whom those people spread to. With a new disease, we have the possibility of saving hundreds of thousands of lives of all ages by slowing its spread until we have better treatment and vaccination.
That's a bald-faced lie. We knew from very early on that even the kids who caught the disease weren't spreading it to adults at anywhere near the rate that covid-19 was spreading through the normal population. Still not clear why, but the evidence was unambiguous.

The school closings were due to the teachers' and administrators' fear and their powerful political sway, not any concern for children (for whom remote learning was disastrous failure), or for the families of the children.

I'm not going to argue about secret political motivations. That seems like a rabbit hole to me. However, school closings happened in dozens of countries from Israel to South Korea. In all the cases that I've read, the stated reason is to reduce community transmission - which includes protecting teachers and families, not just children. Yes, I've seen papers claiming that student-to-student transmission is low compared to the rest of the community - but there have been outbreaks in schools. Papers like the below suggest that transmission is lower in schools, but it still says "cases do increase at moderate to high pre-existing COVID rates".

https://caldercenter.org/publications/what-extent-does-person-schooling-contribute-spread-covid-19-evidence-michigan-and

You can argue that we have known the disease really well and the science is unquestionable that there is no increased risk from in-person schools - but it seems to me that in other places, you have argued that it is right for people to question scientific assurances.
What secret political motivations? The teacher's unions have been very been very public and very clear in their goals, including demanding far stricter measures than groups like the American Association of Pediatrics or even the CDC recommend. This is in the open, common knowledge, and regularly reported in the news.

You trying to spin it as "secret political motivations" is just another bald-faced lie.

Nobody said there was zero spread. But 1) the incidence and spread in schools was spectacularly low (see the reports from Italy after they reopened -- with tens of thousands of schools, they literally had zero cases where a child spread the disease to anyone else), 2) children are at more risk from dozens of background dangers than covid-19, and 3) most importantly, remote learning has been devastating for children. It's a been a lost year for education. That's horrific.

And what the fuck is this: "you have argued that it is right for people to question scientific assurances". That's just really, really vile. You're making vague and snide assertions that are implying nasty things that aren't true but are hard to rebut because you're not making any concrete claims. That's miserable behavior, and not a valid way to make an argument. You should be ashamed of yourself.

GeekyBugle

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1797 on: April 13, 2021, 09:16:57 PM »
Are you getting tired of seeing the Conspiracy Facts being proven correct time and time again byt the MSM?

Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

ScytheSong

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1798 on: April 13, 2021, 10:19:55 PM »
Are you getting tired of seeing the Conspiracy Facts being proven correct time and time again byt the MSM?

Ah, yes. The good ol' ToryGraph, who is racking up the COVID-19 denial frequent flyer miles. Including an IPSO-forced take down and a number of lawsuits. "Just because they were infected by the coronavirus and died because their body didn't have enough oxygen, that doesn't mean they *actually* died of COVID. Just look at the comorbidities."

Also, as another point on a similar topic, when you've got all the beds in the local ICU filled by people on ventilators, the 87-year-old (who was my father) gets sent to a hospital twenty miles further on where they can actually investigate why he's been spitting up blood for the past twenty-four hours. And then he dies. My brother's church has had roughly three times the number of deaths in the past 12 months than in any other twelve month period in his twenty-plus years as their pastor. Sure, it's anecdotal, but it's part of a larger pattern that shows that people are dying who otherwise wouldn't because of the virus (not because of the lockdown like some of you idiots seem to think).

GeekyBugle

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Re: Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.
« Reply #1799 on: April 14, 2021, 12:55:11 AM »
Alex Jones was right, again.

Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell