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Author Topic: Biden's Cascade of Failure!  (Read 82177 times)

Shasarak

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #360 on: July 03, 2022, 05:12:31 PM »
Everything you need to know about the UN can be summed up by the fact that China can sit on the Human Rights Council.

The UN stopped as many wars as the League of Nations did.
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Pat
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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #361 on: July 03, 2022, 05:16:29 PM »
Everybody's flipping out about the "liberal world order" quote, but that's literally what they've been describing it as since at least the end of WW2. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's not a secret, it's just the set of institutions and policies designed to ensure peace and spread liberal principles of democracy and free trade, including the UN, the World Bank, the IMF, and the GATT now WTO.

There are certainly adverse and even sinister consequences, but there are also positive ones. The core institution is the UN, and by creating a forum where countries can vent their grievances and where they regularly just sit down and talk, it defuses tensions, reduces mistakes, and humanizes the opposition. It generally promotes free trade by providing a set of standards and a means of resolving disputes. This has interlinked world economies, which again reduces conflicts, because hurting your trade partners hurts you. That's been a major plus, because while there's been a lot of smaller and internal wars, there haven't been any of the global conflagrations that marked the first half of the 20th century.

Of course the negative effects are also becoming apparent. By linking the world economies, they've become more vulnerable to failures anywhere, and economic downturns and shortages sweep the world with little impedance. By giving more power to the supernational institutions, there's been a centralization of power in vast unelected entities with murky accountability. With the diminishment of religion in many of the leading states, there's been a tendency to transfer that sentiment to national ideals and ideologies, including the idea of a unified world order, which has sacralized these institutions. Which of course if absurd, because they represent all countries, which leads to inevitable and natural absurdities like putting China and Iran on human rights commissions. Treating the Wesphalian nation-state and thus the existing national borders as sovereign and sacrosanct has led to innumerable ethnic conflicts, because the post-colonial and post-World War borders were drawn as straight lines on a map by people thousands of miles away, ignoring the peoples and geographies, and thus severing or uniting unnaturally. It's also created a global class of elites, educated in the same universities and sharing many of the same ideals, who socialize with each other and move around the world freely, and who have become ever more distant from the people they supposedly represent, and from the unique local needs of distinct areas.

While that concept of classical liberal principles as the *ideal* is true, the fact remains that all of the entities involved are corrupted beyond redemption because they've attracted corruptible people. 

When you have people who sit on interlocking corporate boards who are also tied to NGO and supranational entities where they collude with similar other people, it's a problem.  We should not have allowed a Bill Gates to have any relationship with the UN or Peter Daszak while buying up farmland in the upper Midwest at the same time as Chinese entities are doing the same.  We should not have allowed the Biden crime family to sit on UKR energy board or broker deals with China.

When you have oligarchs influencing foreign sovereign nations, it all turns to shit.
Those aren't classical liberal principles. Classical liberalism fears the state, wants strong constitutional protections, believes in checks and balances, and sees elections as primarily a mechanism for throwing the corrupt out of power, because power always corrupts. It supports local autonomy, small states, secession, sound money, federalism, and heavily armed populaces. It supports the primary of the individual.

Liberal in the sense of the "liberal world order" is more post-FDR American liberalism. This is the Brain Trust twist on liberalism, informed by European ideals of collectivism and socialism, and American progressivism. The idea that history is an inevitable upward arc, and the belief that all problems are fixable by sufficiently educated and intelligent people, with all the pseudo-religious consequentialism that entails. It is strongly in favor of powerful governments, centralized control, endless meddling, massive social programs, fiat currency and fiscal and monetary dictates, and supernational organizations with teeth. It is a utopian vision, with the technocrat replacing Plato's philosopher kings.

Classical liberalism ran into some problems in the post ww2 era. Nuclear weapons changed the world. It was foreseeable that nations could be utterly destroyed quickly within tge dominf few decades. This mandated a much stronger military with nuclear deterrent capacity, which mandated a strong central authority to maintain nuclear security.

Also globalization made a unified government for America necessary as we could not have each state deciding how to deal with foreign governments. Now that foreign nations could pose a more dangerous threat faster than before again, a centralized power was needed more than ever before.

Also globalization and automation changed socioeconomic dynamics heavily. With unemployment caused by both you needed social liberalism to deal with the changing dynamics.

The definition of liberalism has had to evolve in the post ww2 reality.
You got the timing wrong, liberalism changed in the first two decades of the 20th century, not in the 40s. You see early examples in Wilson's League of Nations, and it flowered after the Great Depression.

And none of that "mandates" anything. It was just an excuse for accruing more power to a central state. And the driver wasn't nukes, but the horror of WW2. The US is somewhat insulated, by its late entry, lack of any real invasion of its homeland, and two big oceans. But it hit Europe and the conquered nations hard, and caused both a crisis of confidence and a sense of shame, which drove them to seek safely in international institutions and to delegate the hard choices to the US military complex.

Liberalism, in the classic sense, is long dead. The US Constitution then Lincoln killed it. It only survives in mutated forms in things like modern libertarianism. The progressive statist false-liberalism of the also long dead version Democratic party, of which Bill Maher is a late vestige, combined utopian progressivism as exemplified by Teddy Roosevelt and the later Brain Trust of his distant cousin, with grassroots unionism and populism, and took advantage of every crisis to grow.

Ghostmaker

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #362 on: July 03, 2022, 05:22:38 PM »
You can declare 'the Navy vets should run the nuke program'. The problem is who's running the Navy vets?

Bureaucrats. Lawyers. Activists. Shills. People who roll out Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island every time someone raises the prospect of nuclear power. No matter how good the design, no matter how safe, it's never, ever safe enough.

And if something goes wrong, they'll fuckin' lie to you.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #363 on: July 03, 2022, 06:00:59 PM »
Pat, your above post is one of the best I have yet to see on this site. It addressed a major  issue fairly, comprehensively, accurately and concisely in an unbaised tone and rational manner. Reason is not dead here yet.

It's easy to praise a post when you agree with it.

It helps you to agree with a post when the poster makes a cogent point in a fair and reasonable, non offensive tone.   8)

I agree.

Fucktard shitheads, no wonder you love trump so much.

I want to put the navy IN CHARGE OF THE NUCEAR INDUSTRY!  REGULATING IT!  ENFORCING SAFETY STANDARDS! OVERSEEING CONSTRUCTION MAINTENANCE AND OPERATION! PUTTING THEM ABOVE THE GODDAM CORPATE BLOODSUCKERS THAT GRAFTED THE THREE MILE ISLAND DESIGN TO FAILURE! MILITARY INVESTIGATION AND ENFORCEMENT! MILITARY DISCIPLINE FOR CORRUPTION!

HAVE. I. MADE. MYSELF. CLEAR.  NOW, CUMSTAIN BRAIN?!
« Last Edit: July 03, 2022, 06:02:41 PM by Ratman_tf »
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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #364 on: July 03, 2022, 06:20:20 PM »
Yeah, when people deliberately miss the point and throw shit at me I go off on them sometimes. No apologies.
Fuck the fascist right and the fascist left.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #365 on: July 03, 2022, 06:42:12 PM »
Yeah, when people deliberately miss the point and throw shit at me I go off on them sometimes. No apologies.

Like I said. You're just as responsible for the level of discourse on this site by participating in "going off" on someone. So I don't take your judgements about the "level of reason" on this site seriously.
The notion of an exclusionary and hostile RPG community is a fever dream of zealots who view all social dynamics through a narrow keyhole of structural oppression.
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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #366 on: July 03, 2022, 07:47:41 PM »
That's what block lists are for.
Fuck the fascist right and the fascist left.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #367 on: July 03, 2022, 11:36:39 PM »
That's what block lists are for.

You don't seem to be managing yours very well.
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oggsmash

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #368 on: July 03, 2022, 11:49:56 PM »
Yeah, when people deliberately miss the point and throw shit at me I go off on them sometimes. No apologies.

  You made no point though.  Jeff and I and several other members of this forum are actual trained nuclear power plant operators who were in the Naval Nuclear Propulsion program.  Personally I know a good deal about how nuclear power is regulated in the USA just from people I knew then who worked in the industry as well as information we got throughout training and military career while doing the job.   I can understand the point of view, but you propose what is already there on one hand as well as not understanding the former nucs working in civilian plants are there because they did not stay in the Navy, meaning they did not care to live under the UCMJ any more.   Trying to bring such a restrictive rule of law to civilians is going to mean no one works in the industry.  The people there are well trained and have integrity beaten into them from day one of being in the program.  Your solution is no solution and looked like the inane ranting of a person with absolutely zero clue as to how the system works now.  If you expect any sort of soft tone on explaining that to you when you clearly have what is a violent animus (despite likely being COMPLETELY unequipped mentally or physically to engage in violence) towards people who voted for trump,  you are completely tone deaf. 

   You just lash out and go off because that is how petulant children act.  I get wanting to vent a bit and we are all guilty of it.  The constant tone as if you are some sort of genius explaining how retarded people who vote for trump are though is a bit old, especially coming from a guy who misspells every 5th word.

3catcircus

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #369 on: July 04, 2022, 11:07:13 AM »
Yeah, when people deliberately miss the point and throw shit at me I go off on them sometimes. No apologies.

  You made no point though.  Jeff and I and several other members of this forum are actual trained nuclear power plant operators who were in the Naval Nuclear Propulsion program.  Personally I know a good deal about how nuclear power is regulated in the USA just from people I knew then who worked in the industry as well as information we got throughout training and military career while doing the job.   I can understand the point of view, but you propose what is already there on one hand as well as not understanding the former nucs working in civilian plants are there because they did not stay in the Navy, meaning they did not care to live under the UCMJ any more.   Trying to bring such a restrictive rule of law to civilians is going to mean no one works in the industry.  The people there are well trained and have integrity beaten into them from day one of being in the program.  Your solution is no solution and looked like the inane ranting of a person with absolutely zero clue as to how the system works now.  If you expect any sort of soft tone on explaining that to you when you clearly have what is a violent animus (despite likely being COMPLETELY unequipped mentally or physically to engage in violence) towards people who voted for trump,  you are completely tone deaf. 

   You just lash out and go off because that is how petulant children act.  I get wanting to vent a bit and we are all guilty of it.  The constant tone as if you are some sort of genius explaining how retarded people who vote for trump are though is a bit old, especially coming from a guy who misspells every 5th word.

Let's also not forget that even though everyone who went through the pipeline was above average IQ as compared to the general population, that there were still varying degrees of competency. I'm the first to admit I was not the #1 in RC-Div, nor was I a complete retard - when you have to hire a large amount of people, you tend to have to take even the complete retards.  TMI happened even with former navy nukes sitting the panel...  The issue is you need people who can question things and not just blindly follow procedure.

No one remembers Davis Besse's 1977 incident even though it started out identically to TMI - a small LOCA in the primary side steam space - the operators took the same exact actions to shut off the high pressure injection pumps because that is how they were trained on the plant simulator to not let the plant go solid.  No one understood how the plant response would be to a LOCA due to stuck open pressurizer PORVs because the design basis didn't model it in the simulator, resulting in the operators following their training into doing the exact wrong thing.  If not for the fact that one of the operators thought about it and ordered the pressurizer PORV block valve to be shut, Davis Besse would have been TMI.

Unfortunately, with the emphasis today if trying to inject equity and diversity into hard sciences and the cultural disdain for education amongst some segments of the population, we have several generations of people who can't make change at a McDonald's without following the pictures in the register, let alone be able to understand how to operate a system-of-systems engineering plant.

Now inject in the "helpfulness" of government regulation...  I've seen shipyard workers in a foreign shipyard walk under a load being moved by a crane without them thinking that that is probably not a good idea - because they've been conditioned to think that legislating safety processes makes it so that something like a lift couldn't possibly go wrong, dumping several tons of hardware onto them.  This, at the same time that they wanted to know the exact metallurgical makeup of the cabinetry being lifted to see if the equipment would be "safe" to lift, totally ignoring the fact that the equipment was designed and built to withstand events that would be more stressful than lifting it from it's lifting eyes with a crane...

You can't fix stupid.

Battlemaster
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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #370 on: July 04, 2022, 11:36:44 AM »
Ogg, you only made one point I feel like wasting time explaing the fallacy of.

You decried 'gubmint regyoolayshuns' but seem to ignore the fact that refulqtions placed on banks and wall street after the market crash of 1929 prevented another major market crisis for over 50 years. The ronny raygun cqme in with his 'gubmint isn't tge solution, gubmint is tge problem 'and begsn a republiscum jyhad against regulations.

We went strqit to the S&L crisis meant the rich stole tens if bikliobs ofbdolars, and taxpayers were forced to replace it, so they robbed the country as a whole thanks to raygun brand deregulation.

Further deregulation lead to the recession of the 90s  and again more wealth shifted upwards. Then we had tge real estate bubble,  the big recession of the 2010s that lead to tge 'new economy' which crushed what was left if the old middle class, and so on.

So much for your 'gugmint regyoolayshuns bad! ' line.

And again, the USN has ran a nuclear energy program that is safe, efficient and effective for 70 years thank to regulations.

Case closed.

Fuck the fascist right and the fascist left.

Pat
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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #371 on: July 04, 2022, 12:28:35 PM »
Ogg, you only made one point I feel like wasting time explaing the fallacy of.

You decried 'gubmint regyoolayshuns' but seem to ignore the fact that refulqtions placed on banks and wall street after the market crash of 1929 prevented another major market crisis for over 50 years. The ronny raygun cqme in with his 'gubmint isn't tge solution, gubmint is tge problem 'and begsn a republiscum jyhad against regulations.

We went strqit to the S&L crisis meant the rich stole tens if bikliobs ofbdolars, and taxpayers were forced to replace it, so they robbed the country as a whole thanks to raygun brand deregulation.

Further deregulation lead to the recession of the 90s  and again more wealth shifted upwards. Then we had tge real estate bubble,  the big recession of the 2010s that lead to tge 'new economy' which crushed what was left if the old middle class, and so on.

So much for your 'gugmint regyoolayshuns bad! ' line.

And again, the USN has ran a nuclear energy program that is safe, efficient and effective for 70 years thank to regulations.

Case closed.
That's almost entirely garbage.

The regulations placed on banks during the Great Depression didn't lead to 50 years without a crash. The government response to the crash of 1929 prolonged the depression, which only ended about 15 years later with WW2. Compare Black Thursday in 1929 to the even more severe crash in 1920, where Harding did nothing, and the economy bounced back within a year. And it was the Bretton Woods system and the gold standard established after that war that led to a lack of serious crashes between WW2 and the 1970s. But when Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971 and started printing money, it led directly to stagflation. So even if we assume government regulation is responsible for any stability during the 50 year window you gave, instead of attributing it to the real cause which was not inflating the money supply, you still have to carve out 15 years on the front end, and 10 on the back end. 25/50 years is a terrible track record. The monetary inflation starting in the 1970s is also the primary cause of the flattening of real wage growth for the middle class, because monetary inflation is another form of wealth transfer.

And as I explained earlier, Carter deregulated more than Reagan, and the S&L crisis was caused by government regulation, not your bogeyman of greedy corporations. Plus, there was no recession in the 90s. It was an area of almost uniform growth. And you missed the dot com crash of the early aughts.

Also, your idea that Republicans are against regulation is disproved by the number of pages added to the Federal Register each year. The difference between the parties isn't the difference between going 99.99999% the speed of light, and a full stop. It's between 0.9999999c and 0.9999998c.

So government regulation and government interference was behind almost all the economic problems of the last century, and that even includes the housing crash of 2008, which was caused by the Clinton-era repeal of parts of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933, as well as government housing policies that pushed lenders to extend credit to people who were incapable of paying it back, because expanding home ownership is political gold, even when it leads to disaster.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 12:33:14 PM by Pat »

oggsmash

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #372 on: July 04, 2022, 02:33:06 PM »
Ogg, you only made one point I feel like wasting time explaing the fallacy of.

You decried 'gubmint regyoolayshuns' but seem to ignore the fact that refulqtions placed on banks and wall street after the market crash of 1929 prevented another major market crisis for over 50 years. The ronny raygun cqme in with his 'gubmint isn't tge solution, gubmint is tge problem 'and begsn a republiscum jyhad against regulations.

We went strqit to the S&L crisis meant the rich stole tens if bikliobs ofbdolars, and taxpayers were forced to replace it, so they robbed the country as a whole thanks to raygun brand deregulation.

Further deregulation lead to the recession of the 90s  and again more wealth shifted upwards. Then we had tge real estate bubble,  the big recession of the 2010s that lead to tge 'new economy' which crushed what was left if the old middle class, and so on.

So much for your 'gugmint regyoolayshuns bad! ' line.

And again, the USN has ran a nuclear energy program that is safe, efficient and effective for 70 years thank to regulations.

Case closed.

  You fucking retard....the USN and the NRC have the SAME SPECS AND REGULATIONS!!!.   I explained that to you.  I said you are not going to get people to work a job where they have to have the UCMJ over them.....you do not seem to understand what the UCMJ is so it goes right over your head.  You are bringing financial regulations in (which are really just ways for the oligarchs to crush small fish, but that is completely different) and making an apples to cadillacs comparison.   

KindaMeh

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #373 on: July 04, 2022, 03:17:39 PM »
Ogg, you only made one point I feel like wasting time explaing the fallacy of.

You decried 'gubmint regyoolayshuns' but seem to ignore the fact that refulqtions placed on banks and wall street after the market crash of 1929 prevented another major market crisis for over 50 years. The ronny raygun cqme in with his 'gubmint isn't tge solution, gubmint is tge problem 'and begsn a republiscum jyhad against regulations.

We went strqit to the S&L crisis meant the rich stole tens if bikliobs ofbdolars, and taxpayers were forced to replace it, so they robbed the country as a whole thanks to raygun brand deregulation.

Further deregulation lead to the recession of the 90s  and again more wealth shifted upwards. Then we had tge real estate bubble,  the big recession of the 2010s that lead to tge 'new economy' which crushed what was left if the old middle class, and so on.

So much for your 'gugmint regyoolayshuns bad! ' line.

And again, the USN has ran a nuclear energy program that is safe, efficient and effective for 70 years thank to regulations.

Case closed.
That's almost entirely garbage.

The regulations placed on banks during the Great Depression didn't lead to 50 years without a crash. The government response to the crash of 1929 prolonged the depression, which only ended about 15 years later with WW2. Compare Black Thursday in 1929 to the even more severe crash in 1920, where Harding did nothing, and the economy bounced back within a year. And it was the Bretton Woods system and the gold standard established after that war that led to a lack of serious crashes between WW2 and the 1970s. But when Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971 and started printing money, it led directly to stagflation. So even if we assume government regulation is responsible for any stability during the 50 year window you gave, instead of attributing it to the real cause which was not inflating the money supply, you still have to carve out 15 years on the front end, and 10 on the back end. 25/50 years is a terrible track record. The monetary inflation starting in the 1970s is also the primary cause of the flattening of real wage growth for the middle class, because monetary inflation is another form of wealth transfer.

And as I explained earlier, Carter deregulated more than Reagan, and the S&L crisis was caused by government regulation, not your bogeyman of greedy corporations. Plus, there was no recession in the 90s. It was an area of almost uniform growth. And you missed the dot com crash of the early aughts.

Also, your idea that Republicans are against regulation is disproved by the number of pages added to the Federal Register each year. The difference between the parties isn't the difference between going 99.99999% the speed of light, and a full stop. It's between 0.9999999c and 0.9999998c.

So government regulation and government interference was behind almost all the economic problems of the last century, and that even includes the housing crash of 2008, which was caused by the Clinton-era repeal of parts of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933, as well as government housing policies that pushed lenders to extend credit to people who were incapable of paying it back, because expanding home ownership is political gold, even when it leads to disaster.

I feel like I’m learning a fair bit from this. That said, be prepared for some ignorant questions now that the mental gears are turning.

Was Keynes right about WW2 ending the Depression? I kinda liked Hayek’s take on war and army employment within the rap battle, though I acknowledge it seemed to favor an Austrian perspective. Hoover seemed to me a lot less interventionist than FDR, working to let private and local folks lead, and I heard the fed didn’t slash interest rates by too much during the start of the Depression, but shouldn’t dropping them at all have done something to cause an artificial boom under the Austrian perspective? Basically, why didn’t the Depression end or at least abate with Hoover taking point?

Also, with the raw Austrian perspective, how were there any crashes at all on the gold standard? How could the fed print money or cause inflation when all the money was backed by real gold value?

Regarding flattening middle class wages, is it because inflation started making it harder for the middle class to save and invest to gain money that way and meant wages had to constantly jog to catch up with inflation? Why didn’t the market for labor factor in inflation? Is there a weird mechanism I’m missing?

Wasn’t the dot com crash fueled by excessive speculation? Under Hayek I assume that means it was preceded by low interest rates. But why would the malinvestments from that all be in one sector?

Didn’t know Republicans almost never manage to cut regulations, that lowers my opinion of the right in delivering on campaign promises.

I knew a bit about the poor and dishonest oversight in the ratings system and deregulation that led to 2008. Feel like we need better regulation, albeit less.

Felt like Hayek won the Econ rap battle, perhaps partly due to being favored by the writers. But some of this is making me question that, albeit possibly that’d be less the case if I’d already read his theory and could apply more than rap battle soundbites. The fact that econometricians seemed in favor of Keynes in that rap battle though, in combination with some of this stuff, is making me confused as to whether it’s all as simple as the rap battle Austrian perspective was portrayed. I feel like theories need to bear themselves out in practice, no matter how solid, to be accepted as the whole truth, and econometric statistical analysis may be part of that.


KindaMeh

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Re: Biden's Cascade of Failure!
« Reply #374 on: July 04, 2022, 03:27:27 PM »
Biden’s a Keynesian, right? Is that a failure or a perk? Or is Biden kinda just on board with being politically expedient? (Ex: Do we have any examples of him ignoring BOTH the Keynesian and Austrian perspective? Or switching approaches/abandoning a line of reasoning? I feel like there could potentially be a gold vein of criticisms relevant to the thread to discover here.)
« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 08:53:57 PM by KindaMeh »