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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 185160 times)

Mistwell

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1605 on: December 05, 2020, 12:10:12 PM »
Part of the problem is that the media have become utterly unreliable, and I’d argue worse so on the left, which I used to follow more than the right. Most leftists seem oblivious to it, while right-wingers are so aware of it that they are skeptical to anything that doesn’t “feel right” to them, because they are constantly being lied to (and by Republicans too by the way). I have debated people on a left-leaning forum, and they had no clue that Trump supporters had been murdered in the protests, that George Floyd had breathing problems before he was put on the ground, or that he had previously committed armed robbery of a pregnant woman. Or indeed that the Democrats, in trying to expose Russian collusion had been going after an informant for CIA, i.e. he was helping the US intelligence against the Russians. That was actually when the collusion story fell apart, but most leftists don’t know that it ever did.

I agree a huge part of this problem is too many in the media made the irresponsible choice to join the #RESIST movement or the TRUMP movement, which led to skewed perspectives given to their audience, and reasonable distrust to those outside their audience. And I think the primary factor in this is 24 hour news outlets feeling like they needed to choose a side for ratings purposes to carve out a niche in audiences they could target, combined with similar pressure on online media. The audience for neutral reporting just isn't as large as the audience for partisan reporting with hyperbolic and misrepresentative headlines and soundbites, because it's boring to discuss nuance.

So now we get shit like this, where people are trusting randos in YouTube videos with 100% incentive to get as many clicks and go viral as possible, and no incentive or checks in place to pressure them to not skew what they "report" to just one perspective. Because the more extreme things they show, the more clicks they get. And the more Believers they get like SHARK the more those videos are passed around, which gets more clicks. This is a system set up with incentives to be as misrepresentation and scandalous as possible, and punishment for introducing any perspective or nuance which distracts from the click-bait headline. It's Yellow Journalism turned up to 11.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2020, 12:15:08 PM by Mistwell »

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1606 on: December 05, 2020, 01:09:20 PM »
Even if you distrust the media, the stark difference between what Trump and the GOP allege in media, and what they're alleging (or more accurately, not alleging) in court, speaks for itself.

Mistwell

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1607 on: December 05, 2020, 01:25:14 PM »
Does this argument sound familiar? This is from 2004. From the nutty left:

Democratic Underground Forums – Voting in the USA: A Tale of Two Brothers: “Voting Fraud in the USA
Did you know….

80% of all votes in America are counted by o�nly two companies: Diebold and ES&S.

There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.

The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.

The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was ‘committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.’

35% of ES&S is owned by Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who became Senator based o�n votes counted by ES&S machines.

Diebold’s new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.

Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.

Diebold is based in Ohio and supplies almost all the voting machines there.

None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.

30% of all U.S. votes are carried out o�n unverifiable touch screen voting machines.

Bush’s Help America Vote Act of 2002 has as its goal to replace all machines with the new electronic touch screen systems.

Republican Senator Chuck Hagel owns 35% of ES&S and was caught lying about it

ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.

Exit polls for the 2004 elections were accurate within 1% or less in areas where ballot machines were use”

“How many Americans know that there was a bill in the House of Representives supported by a majority of congressman that would have required voting machines to leave a paper trail by 2004 (HR 2239: The Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act of 2003, written by Rush Holt, Dem from NJ) that even Republicans supported? But who stopped it? Tom DeLay–who’s as partisan as they come, to put it mildy. DeLay was recently slapped with three ethics violations for bribery, gerrymandering and money-laundering–hardly the man to help the 2004 election be free and fair (not stolen by Bush).”
« Last Edit: December 05, 2020, 01:26:59 PM by Mistwell »

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1608 on: December 05, 2020, 01:57:55 PM »
Beyond that, the affidavit witnesses will go to prison if they are lying. Various officials and politicians--whether Democrat or Republican--can say whatever they want; they can lie through their teeth nine ways to Sunday, and suffer zero consequences. Same thing goes for all of the "Fact Checkers" and members of the MSM. I have zero faith in anything the MSM media says.
Here, we have lots of evidence, lots of eye witnesses, affidavits, and testimony. Hundreds, and more. A storm of questions, analysis, and concerns over problems in several states during this election. I want justice to prevail, Mistwell. TRUTH.

Here is the root of our disagreement. You might believe that *Republicans* can lie, but you are convinced that a *Trump supporter* would never lie. You decide on truth or falsehood based on whether or not they support Trump. You seem explicit about this here. I might be a cock-sucking liberal, but I believe that both conservatives and liberals can lie and/or be wrong, even under oath.

I think that this sort of absolute partisan belief is dangerous in both liberals and conservatives. Someone might *say* they are liberal, but really, they care nothing about helping the poor and disadvantaged or saving the environment -- they are just greedy, and there is profit to be made in fame and business from liberals. Likewise, someone might *say* they are a Trump supporter, but they don't actually care about helping the middle class and traditional Americans -- they are just greedy, and there is profit to be made in fame and business from Trump supporters.

Affidavit witnesses *risk* prison, but that's only if it can be *proven* beyond reasonable doubt they are maliciously lying to sway the case. In most cases, the lies amount to a he-said/she-said, where it can't be conclusively proven that either side is lying. Prosecutions for perjury are quite rare. (ref)

Getting down to the brass tacks of evidence...

There are thousands of Twitter posts -- but it seems to me that there are only a few dozen legal affidavits. I obviously haven't had time to look at all of them, but I've looked at a few of the most prominent - as cited by pro-Trump posters here. I'll try to post a summary in a following post. The question is, how do we assess their credibility? Do we just accept that they *must* be telling the truth because they're pro-Trump, or do we assess their credibility by some other method?


I don't need to hear testimonies of eye-witnesses, Conservative alternative media news people, or Conservative lawyers to tell me that fraud has taken place in this election. I knew all by myself on election night, when President Trump was overwhelmingly ahead, and had the election won easily. Then, somehow in the middle of the night--hundreds and hundreds of thousands of votes--all going for Biden--somehow gets dumped in the deep of the night, and Biden is then declared the winner? That is just BS, man. Mathematicians, pollster experts, and so on have all discussed how such an occurrence is BS as well, and has never, ever happened before. So, from election night alone--or immediately in the morning--I knew the Democrats were engaged in fraud and BS.

I felt like this was similar emotionally for supporters of Hillary Clinton in 2016, when all the polls and analyses - and even many early returns - seemed to favor her, but the election went to Trump, despite her winning the popular vote. But early estimates and measures aren't always right. You're claiming that the mail-in was filled with hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes. But what if there wasn't fraud? What would have happened?


In most states, the mail-in ballots are processed later than the in-person ballots. So what we'd expect to see is that the early returns will reflect more the in-person voting, and the later returns will reflect more the mail-in voting. Note that out of 150 million votes cast in this election, a hundred thousand votes is less than 0.1%. This year, it's no secret that Democrats are more concerned about covid-19 than Republicans are. Concerned about filing in with thousands of others, a great many Democrats voted by mail. So I'll offer two possibilities:

1) Legal Democrat voters were more concerned about covid-19, and on average, they used mail-in voting more - for a difference of a few percent.

2) Legal Republican voters used mail-in voting exactly as much as the Democrats.

I think that #1 is at least reasonably believable, given the different rhetoric between the parties. And if it was true, then the later mail-in returns would favor Biden.

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1609 on: December 05, 2020, 03:51:14 PM »
Another thing that people are ignoring is that there were a fair amount of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, who did not vote for him in 2020. When megadonors like Sheldon Adelson are turning their back on Trump, you kmow he's in Trouble. And Steve Bannon himself (he's a criminal scumbag, yes, but he's also a shrewd political operative, by any estimation) said that groups like The Lincoln Project would only need to peel away 3 or 4 percent of Trump voters in order to deny him a 2020 win. In the end, I think Republicans had a lot to do with Trump's defeat. I think there were a lot of R's who either aren't evangelicals, or who gritted their teeth and voted for Trump on the economy and judgeships. Many of these have turned on him because of the direct negative impact this administration's inept Coronavirus response has had on the economy. Well, that and "scandal fatigue". The Lincoln Project is not an anomaly. There are a lot of R's who voted for their party's nominee, hoping that he would at least make an attempt to rise to the challenges of his office. The difference between these voters and the MAGA crowd, is that the Lincoln Project types are smart enough to see, and mature enough to admit, that they made a mistake.

The truth of the matter is that if Trump had the maturity to have reigned in his ego, even a tiny fraction, and put just a bit more effort (you know, more than "none") into actually doing his job, instead of "owning the libs", he probably would have coasted to a second term. The hilarious part of watching conservative denial over Biden's victory is that the fault is really Trump's own.

Mistwell

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1610 on: December 05, 2020, 04:20:14 PM »
Another thing that people are ignoring is that there were a fair amount of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, who did not vote for him in 2020. When megadonors like Sheldon Adelson are turning their back on Trump, you kmow he's in Trouble. And Steve Bannon himself (he's a criminal scumbag, yes, but he's also a shrewd political operative, by any estimation) said that groups like The Lincoln Project would only need to peel away 3 or 4 percent of Trump voters in order to deny him a 2020 win. In the end, I think Republicans had a lot to do with Trump's defeat. I think there were a lot of R's who either aren't evangelicals, or who gritted their teeth and voted for Trump on the economy and judgeships. Many of these have turned on him because of the direct negative impact this administration's inept Coronavirus response has had on the economy. Well, that and "scandal fatigue". The Lincoln Project is not an anomaly. There are a lot of R's who voted for their party's nominee, hoping that he would at least make an attempt to rise to the challenges of his office. The difference between these voters and the MAGA crowd, is that the Lincoln Project types are smart enough to see, and mature enough to admit, that they made a mistake.

The truth of the matter is that if Trump had the maturity to have reigned in his ego, even a tiny fraction, and put just a bit more effort (you know, more than "none") into actually doing his job, instead of "owning the libs", he probably would have coasted to a second term. The hilarious part of watching conservative denial over Biden's victory is that the fault is really Trump's own.

As soon as Trump got his third Supreme Court appointee confirmed, I knew he was toast. A lot of conservatives and moderates I know were only barely supporting him to begin with and it was over the supreme court. Once that issue was firmly settled, the last reason to support Trump went away for them.

Shasarak

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1611 on: December 05, 2020, 05:01:48 PM »
Another thing that people are ignoring is that there were a fair amount of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, who did not vote for him in 2020. When megadonors like Sheldon Adelson are turning their back on Trump, you kmow he's in Trouble. And Steve Bannon himself (he's a criminal scumbag, yes, but he's also a shrewd political operative, by any estimation) said that groups like The Lincoln Project would only need to peel away 3 or 4 percent of Trump voters in order to deny him a 2020 win. In the end, I think Republicans had a lot to do with Trump's defeat. I think there were a lot of R's who either aren't evangelicals, or who gritted their teeth and voted for Trump on the economy and judgeships. Many of these have turned on him because of the direct negative impact this administration's inept Coronavirus response has had on the economy. Well, that and "scandal fatigue". The Lincoln Project is not an anomaly. There are a lot of R's who voted for their party's nominee, hoping that he would at least make an attempt to rise to the challenges of his office. The difference between these voters and the MAGA crowd, is that the Lincoln Project types are smart enough to see, and mature enough to admit, that they made a mistake.

The truth of the matter is that if Trump had the maturity to have reigned in his ego, even a tiny fraction, and put just a bit more effort (you know, more than "none") into actually doing his job, instead of "owning the libs", he probably would have coasted to a second term. The hilarious part of watching conservative denial over Biden's victory is that the fault is really Trump's own.

How do you reconcile your facts like Lincoln Project peeling away 3 or 4 percent of Trumps vote with Trump increasing his vote from 62 million to 74 million?
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Mistwell

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1612 on: December 05, 2020, 05:49:48 PM »
Another thing that people are ignoring is that there were a fair amount of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, who did not vote for him in 2020. When megadonors like Sheldon Adelson are turning their back on Trump, you kmow he's in Trouble. And Steve Bannon himself (he's a criminal scumbag, yes, but he's also a shrewd political operative, by any estimation) said that groups like The Lincoln Project would only need to peel away 3 or 4 percent of Trump voters in order to deny him a 2020 win. In the end, I think Republicans had a lot to do with Trump's defeat. I think there were a lot of R's who either aren't evangelicals, or who gritted their teeth and voted for Trump on the economy and judgeships. Many of these have turned on him because of the direct negative impact this administration's inept Coronavirus response has had on the economy. Well, that and "scandal fatigue". The Lincoln Project is not an anomaly. There are a lot of R's who voted for their party's nominee, hoping that he would at least make an attempt to rise to the challenges of his office. The difference between these voters and the MAGA crowd, is that the Lincoln Project types are smart enough to see, and mature enough to admit, that they made a mistake.

The truth of the matter is that if Trump had the maturity to have reigned in his ego, even a tiny fraction, and put just a bit more effort (you know, more than "none") into actually doing his job, instead of "owning the libs", he probably would have coasted to a second term. The hilarious part of watching conservative denial over Biden's victory is that the fault is really Trump's own.

How do you reconcile your facts like Lincoln Project peeling away 3 or 4 percent of Trumps vote with Trump increasing his vote from 62 million to 74 million?

Higher overall turnout, which explains why those same people voted for Republican House and Republican state legislators more than expected, while voting for Biden?

SHARK

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1613 on: December 05, 2020, 06:10:39 PM »
Greetings!

Tim Pool discusses various political events.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

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HappyDaze

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1614 on: December 05, 2020, 06:35:19 PM »
Read a few entertaining pieces on how Trump's diehards are like bigfoot hunters. They will claim something is evidence even when it is not and will seek to refute logic with "belief" in the existence of the myth they so desperately want to be true.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-gop-republican-bigfoot-denver-riggleman-20201204-deemyxqp3rct7eezgkfjowiahm-story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/denver-riggleman-bigfoot-qanon/2020/11/26/d8de7274-2dbf-11eb-bae0-50bb17126614_story.html

Here's an even weirder side note to the same thing:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/you-know-what-they-say-bigfoot-big-tent/2018/07/31/120486f4-94f4-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1615 on: December 05, 2020, 06:46:29 PM »
Another thing that people are ignoring is that there were a fair amount of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016, who did not vote for him in 2020. When megadonors like Sheldon Adelson are turning their back on Trump, you kmow he's in Trouble. And Steve Bannon himself (he's a criminal scumbag, yes, but he's also a shrewd political operative, by any estimation) said that groups like The Lincoln Project would only need to peel away 3 or 4 percent of Trump voters in order to deny him a 2020 win. In the end, I think Republicans had a lot to do with Trump's defeat. I think there were a lot of R's who either aren't evangelicals, or who gritted their teeth and voted for Trump on the economy and judgeships. Many of these have turned on him because of the direct negative impact this administration's inept Coronavirus response has had on the economy. Well, that and "scandal fatigue". The Lincoln Project is not an anomaly. There are a lot of R's who voted for their party's nominee, hoping that he would at least make an attempt to rise to the challenges of his office. The difference between these voters and the MAGA crowd, is that the Lincoln Project types are smart enough to see, and mature enough to admit, that they made a mistake.

The truth of the matter is that if Trump had the maturity to have reigned in his ego, even a tiny fraction, and put just a bit more effort (you know, more than "none") into actually doing his job, instead of "owning the libs", he probably would have coasted to a second term. The hilarious part of watching conservative denial over Biden's victory is that the fault is really Trump's own.

How do you reconcile your facts like Lincoln Project peeling away 3 or 4 percent of Trumps vote with Trump increasing his vote from 62 million to 74 million?

Trump got more votes than he did last time. Biden got more votes than any candidate ever, and part of that was R's voting against Trump. I also know R's who sat out 2016 because they didn't like Trump, who voted for Biden this time.

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1616 on: December 05, 2020, 07:40:01 PM »

Biden got more votes than any candidate ever, and part of that was R's voting against Trump. I also know R's who sat out 2016 because they didn't like Trump, who voted for Biden this time.

Oh, yeah. I forgot that part. "Sleepy" Biden getting the most votes ever just seems improbable to many people. Of course, I figure you got part of the reason for why that happened right. I don't find it improbable at all that some conservative Christians didn't like Trump's "pussy grabbing", or his picking on John McCain for instance.

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1617 on: December 05, 2020, 08:14:07 PM »

Biden got more votes than any candidate ever, and part of that was R's voting against Trump. I also know R's who sat out 2016 because they didn't like Trump, who voted for Biden this time.

Oh, yeah. I forgot that part. "Sleepy" Biden getting the most votes ever just seems improbable to many people. Of course, I figure you got part of the reason for why that happened right. I don't find it improbable at all that some conservative Christians didn't like Trump's "pussy grabbing", or his picking on John McCain for instance.

I guarantee you the McCain shit is a large part of why he lost Arizona.

Mistwell

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1618 on: December 05, 2020, 09:42:54 PM »


I guarantee you the McCain shit is a large part of why he lost Arizona.

That was one of the few things that genuinely pissed me off about Trump. Most of what Trump did was just annoying, but that one, really out of line. Him bashing McCain for being captured when Trump is a draft dodger, infuriating. How could SHARK defend shit like that?

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1619 on: December 05, 2020, 10:25:59 PM »


I guarantee you the McCain shit is a large part of why he lost Arizona.

That was one of the few things that genuinely pissed me off about Trump. Most of what Trump did was just annoying, but that one, really out of line. Him bashing McCain for being captured when Trump is a draft dodger, infuriating. How could SHARK defend shit like that?

Greetings!

Well, McCain was a veteran, and served his country well. However, that was a long time ago, and the man changed. Ultimately, his record as a veteran is not an issue.

As a *politician*--John McCain was a fucking RINO, and terrible. When McCain ran for election the first time--Conservative analysts highlighted his political record of betraying Conservatives and Conservative issues on a regular basis, and he was well known for constantly compromising with the goddamned Democrats. For myself, when McCain ran for election again against Obama in 2008, I was like, WTF? It showed me precisely how pathetic and broken the Republican Part was, and full of do-nothing, greedy, corrupt fucking RINO's the Republican Party had become at that time.

So, opposing Senator McCain as a worthless, fucking RINO politician I believe is entirely justified.

President Trump's quarrel with Senator McCain is what it is. Personally, I think President Trump should have kept more of his personal feelings and attitudes to himself, as discussing them in a public venue held no political advantage. President Trump has not always expressed his views about a number of issues in the best way possible. I have never believed that President Trump is perfect, in any way. There have been occasions where he put his foot in his mouth, so to speak. There are issues he has discussed that while his sentiment or base argument was correct, valid, or otherwise true, he expressed such a view in the wrong manner, in a manner that invited misunderstanding, invited offense, or left him open to exaggerated political attack in the media--when on such occasions, he could have avoided considerable misunderstanding, or outright opposition, based on just expressing it better.

So, I think that President Trump could have handled his feud with Senator McCain in a politically more effective and advantageous manner.

Semper Fidelis,

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