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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 25692 times)

Ghostmaker

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1095 on: November 18, 2020, 01:18:21 pm »

Adjusted for Inflation from 1952 the average home price has risen 3.5 times. The cost of the average car has doubled, as have stamps, while college tuition has risen eight times.  Food is a mixed bag, and has mostly remained stable.

Meanwhile, average incomes have fallen to HALF. 


I'm sorry, but halved income and doubling or more of necessities such as homes, is not 'a bigger slice'.   If I have to work SEVEN TIMES as hard just to keep a roof over my head compared to the previous generation, then by no fucking definition am I doing better.  By no definition am I doing 'the same'. 

I'll remind you that the first fundamental principle of survival is shelter. Its also the base of the heirarchy of needs. This isn't some pissant nuisance like the cost of a fucking iPhone, or the price of gas (Mostly stable, 1% increase).

Pull the other one, its got bells.
Ah, but Spike, the intentions were all good. What does it matter if the results of decades of financial-government fuckery are to screw things up even worse?

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1096 on: November 18, 2020, 01:37:28 pm »
The standard of living for the average American has been dropping steadily since 1976, at least as measured in real income.  We've been outrunning a massive correction on debt for even longer.  If there must be a collapse (and really, there must. That which cannot stand will not stand and all that), why not combine that with the added benefit of ending our Imperial ambitions?
That's not quite true. The standard of living, as defined by inflation-adjusted compensation, has improved since the 1970s. And that underestimates the real improvement in the standard of living, because metrics like the consumer price index only track changes in price, and don't account for all the improvements in quality or value. For instance, even if a car in 2020 costs the same in inflation-adjusted dollars as a car from 1980, the newer car is more efficient, safer, and has many new features. This is especially true when it comes to technology, but applies to nearly all consumer products. The average person in 2020 has more and better stuff than their equivalent in 1980.

The qualification is that inflation-adjusted wages haven't improved that much. As curves go, it's pretty flat. And that's over the same period where measures of the overall economy, like the gross domestic product, have been growing at a pretty solid rate. That's because the growth has been going into other sectors, like the capital industries. The stock market, for instance, has grown at a rate that drastically outstrips the growth in wages. Which is a big part of the reason why the rich have been getting richer.

So while we're better off than we were in the 1970s, it can feel like the average worker is falling behind. That's because they are. The workers haven't shared fully in the economy growth. Their slice is bigger in overall terms, but it's a smaller part of the overall pie.

I think that the more important metric is that Americans are working longer hours and are falling more in debt simply in order to get the basics of a house, car, and food. Yes, they can buy a lot more and better consumer goods. Now their TV is HD, and they have smartphones instead of landlines, their cars have airbags and GPS, and so forth. But I question how well that measures actual quality of life. Some advancements are great, but some seem to just make people more miserable. More addictive designer drugs and social media, for example.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Spike, whom I largely agree with on this point.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 01:40:20 pm by jhkim »

Ratman_tf

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1097 on: November 18, 2020, 01:41:47 pm »
When people on this forum dare say they didn't vote for Trump, knowing they are outnumbered 10 to 1, calling them trolls makes it even harder. I've never trolled here once, but people here have accused me of it purely based on my disagreeing. And damn dude, you know how hard it is to "address criticism" when every post of yours gets a massive number of long detailed responses? No, you don't, at least not here. Because you outnumber the "opposition" ten to one. Cut people some fucking slack when you know you have them so outnumbered.

Oh please unlike other posters here your called a troll and disingenuous because you go out of your way to do both. Not because your disagree with others. In the gaming forum in the Thirty Sword Lesbian thread you knew full well how some posters felt about the rpg. Then came into the thread pretending to be both naive and clueless about it. Even when you knew full well how some of use felt about the rpg. So if your going to pretend to be naive and stupid on purpose then expect to be called both a troll and disingenuous on this board and others. Espcially if you can't be bothered to actual read the thread in question.

So stop with the martyr and victim complex because your not fooling anyone here.

No man, you're so surrounded by people who think exactly like you do on those kinds of topics you cannot even imagine that I don't assume people think like that. I was not trolling. I was giving you my honest opinion, but my opinion was so far from your bubble you cannot imagine it was honest because you don't see opinions like those in your life these days.

Then you are, at best, an inconsiderate poster who jumps into a discussion not more than a few days old and doesn't bother to find out what people already have said, and starts thrashing strawmen.
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EOTB

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1098 on: November 18, 2020, 02:26:22 pm »
[

So while we're better off than we were in the 1970s, it can feel like the average worker is falling behind. That's because they are. The workers haven't shared fully in the economy growth. Their slice is bigger in overall terms, but it's a smaller part of the overall pie.

Right.  As defined by the disposable widgets we own.  The quality of the bread and circuses.

Which other metrics are showing do not produce lasting happiness or quality of life.

An economy that is not geared towards optimizing the number of people who can live comfortably on one income, on property that they own, without the large mental overhang of substantial debt, will continue to lie with statistics
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Shasarak

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1099 on: November 18, 2020, 02:42:40 pm »
When people on this forum dare say they didn't vote for Trump, knowing they are outnumbered 10 to 1, calling them trolls makes it even harder. I've never trolled here once, but people here have accused me of it purely based on my disagreeing. And damn dude, you know how hard it is to "address criticism" when every post of yours gets a massive number of long detailed responses? No, you don't, at least not here. Because you outnumber the "opposition" ten to one. Cut people some fucking slack when you know you have them so outnumbered.

Oh please unlike other posters here your called a troll and disingenuous because you go out of your way to do both. Not because your disagree with others. In the gaming forum in the Thirty Sword Lesbian thread you knew full well how some posters felt about the rpg. Then came into the thread pretending to be both naive and clueless about it. Even when you knew full well how some of use felt about the rpg. So if your going to pretend to be naive and stupid on purpose then expect to be called both a troll and disingenuous on this board and others. Espcially if you can't be bothered to actual read the thread in question.

So stop with the martyr and victim complex because your not fooling anyone here.

I will say one thing for Mistwell, he is right that he has not trolled here once.
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jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1100 on: November 18, 2020, 03:53:08 pm »
I pushed back correcting rawma when he claimed that Veritas hadn't posted their video.

To be more accurate, I said no recording on the page linked to, since I could only find there the claim that it existed, and I joked that it was a rickroll failure. I acknowledged your providing links but neither link you gave appears to be on the page that was linked to. If Brad wants to put forward some evidence, he should link to the evidence, not to some conservative website that simply asserts that the evidence exists. You are generally even-handed (if it seems not so to conservatives, it's because reality has a well known liberal bias) but you shouldn't misrepresent what I said to boost your both-sides credentials.

I'm still not gonna waste two hours on anything edited by Project Veritas. But the link below suggests that the recording doesn't add anything to the story prior to that, but adds that the total of "late arriving but postmarked by Nov 3rd" ballots in Pennsylvania were only around 10,000 (not enough to swing the state; I don't even know if they were even counted yet). Further, Erie had only 129 such and the whistleblower's facility had only 2 of these.

https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/did-a-postal-worker-witness-ballot

I don't intend to single you out, but it sounded to me that the claim was a dig at Veritas rather than at Brad. I totally understand criticizing Veritas - there's a lot there to criticize - but if you're going to make substantial arguments against them, then you have to read them. Dismissing them without reading, and citing liberal sources isn't convincing to anyone who might believe Project Veritas in the first place.


EDITED TO ADD: jhkim, care to acknowledge my correction of you? https://www.therpgsite.com/the-rpgpundit-s-own-forum/2020-election-commentary/msg1151983/?topicseen#msg1151983
Both parties have had recent opportunity to pass through meaningful election reform with undivided control.

If the Democrats thought that Republicans were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Obama's first two years.

If the Republicans thought that Democrats were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Trump's first two years and/or launched investigations to prove the fraudulent votes in 2016.


Instead, it seems that the existing system is roughly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, and neither are pushing for any major reforms - at most minor tweaks. Rather than constantly bitching only about the other side, we should fix the system.
That would require that Democrats recognized the danger 10 to 12 years ago, before the wave of Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 election. It is a mystery why the all-Republican government of 2017-2018 did not fix the problems (like shortages in the national stockpile for pandemics) the Trump administration has blamed Obama for.

But elections are run by states, not the federal government; Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania asked for changes to the vote counting to avoid the current issues by counting mailed ballots earlier, and the unrepresentative Republican legislatures refused to do so. If the mailed ballots that are counted last are mostly for Biden, it's because Trump discouraged his voters from using mailed ballots (at least in those states; Florida it was OK, for some unexplained reason).

Gerrymandering is an old and well-understood problem, though, so Democrats should have understood the danger of it. It seems to me that it wasn't a priority. I suspect it's because gerrymandering tends to help those who are ahead. So while Democrats were ahead, they felt that gerrymandering was not a major problem for them.

Spike

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1101 on: November 18, 2020, 04:58:49 pm »

Gerrymandering is an old and well-understood problem, though, so Democrats should have understood the danger of it. It seems to me that it wasn't a priority. I suspect it's because gerrymandering tends to help those who are ahead. So while Democrats were ahead, they felt that gerrymandering was not a major problem for them.

Gerrymandering is a bipartisan issue, much like campaign finance laws. Both parties engage in it equally because both parties benefit, or rather the benefits are less 'team jersey' stuff and more 'personal benefit'.  With Gerrymandering it essentially locks in the incumbants, as much as you can with a mostly democratic process, and it allows the parties to get rid of troublemakers by eliminating their districts (this was brought up in relation to AOC, a Democrat, and yes, I realize she is still in office).

I find it ridiculously amusing that Gerrymandering is somehow a 'republican' issue
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SHARK

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1102 on: November 18, 2020, 05:03:38 pm »
Greetings!

Get ready for endless fucking Liberal tears.

No evidence of fraud, my ass.

Choke on it, bitches.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I am not trying to be insulting when I say this but I suspect it will come across that way.

SHARK my friend, you don't see what you look like to others anymore.

How did you not see this wasn't the "Holy shit I was right and you were wrong Trump won!" in the moment? My man, why are you not holding yourself at least as accountable for falling for click bait on YouTube as you'd hold others?

Greetings!

No offense taken, Mistwell. At the time I viewed the video, I was surprised, and the video posted by the Hodge twins at the time was accurate. The news cycle thingy changes quickly, sometimes by the fucking hour, right? ;D

It was *breaking news* at the time, so I wanted to post it for people here to review.

I'm ok with some people here laughing at me or choosing to dismiss me. That's ok. Most people that come to know me know that I am generally reasonable, reliable, a lover of the truth, and passionate. I can definitely get worked up about some stuff.

I'm very concerned at how this Canvassing Board thingy changed their minds within a few hours. I don't like how this entire election has developed--and not merely because the media claims that Biden has won. It is all of the horrible details surrounding many states elections. It all seems so riddled through with fraud and corruption, and instead of being eager to engage in comprehensive audits, it seems like nearly everyone in the media and on the left--and even some Republicans--just want everyone to shut up, never mind, there's nothing to see here.

I've been involved with politics and voting for a very long time, Mistwell. Ronald Reagan, Bush Sr, Bill Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama, Trump. In my lifetime I simply have never seen a national election that had this much stench of fraud and corruption, and yet, here we are with this election full of stench, and everyone wants us to just shut up and go away.

That really bothers me, and makes me even *MORE* suspicious.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
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"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
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SHARK

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1103 on: November 18, 2020, 05:07:23 pm »


I think that's out of date. The canvassing board for Wayne County was deadlocked 2-2 in a party line vote around 6 pm, but they got swamped by denouncers in Zoom, and voted again at 9 pm. The second vote was unanimous in favor of approving the results, on the condition that the Michigan Secretary of State's office conduct an audit of the precincts where the number of ballots cast doesn't match the number of people who signed into the polling locations to vote.

Sounce: WSJ article, updated 11/17, 11:28 pm.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-ballot-count-uncertain-after-board-action-11605660687

Greetings!

Really, Pat? Holy Fuck! My YouTube Newsfeed thingy said the Hodgetwins video was *just two hours ago*. Geesus. Changes by the hour! Well, fuck. It was recent as far as I knew. Damn!

Who knows what will happen.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Don't feel too bad about that one, Shark. That one practically changed at the last minute, and they had to agree to a comprehensive audit just to certify (honestly, I'd have held out for the audit FIRST, before certifying, but eh, such is life).

Greetings!

Thank you, Ghostmaker! I appreciate it. Yeah, I was hoping to post something that was timely, breaking news, and crazy. I was surprised by it as well. I try, my friend!

I'm even more surprised by the swift reversal--and deeply suspicious!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the façade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
"Delenda Est Parthia!"

SHARK

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1104 on: November 18, 2020, 05:18:17 pm »
The standard of living for the average American has been dropping steadily since 1976, at least as measured in real income.  We've been outrunning a massive correction on debt for even longer.  If there must be a collapse (and really, there must. That which cannot stand will not stand and all that), why not combine that with the added benefit of ending our Imperial ambitions?
That's not quite true. The standard of living, as defined by inflation-adjusted compensation, has improved since the 1970s. And that underestimates the real improvement in the standard of living, because metrics like the consumer price index only track changes in price, and don't account for all the improvements in quality or value. For instance, even if a car in 2020 costs the same in inflation-adjusted dollars as a car from 1980, the newer car is more efficient, safer, and has many new features. This is especially true when it comes to technology, but applies to nearly all consumer products. The average person in 2020 has more and better stuff than their equivalent in 1980.

The qualification is that inflation-adjusted wages haven't improved that much. As curves go, it's pretty flat. And that's over the same period where measures of the overall economy, like the gross domestic product, have been growing at a pretty solid rate. That's because the growth has been going into other sectors, like the capital industries. The stock market, for instance, has grown at a rate that drastically outstrips the growth in wages. Which is a big part of the reason why the rich have been getting richer.

So while we're better off than we were in the 1970s, it can feel like the average worker is falling behind. That's because they are. The workers haven't shared fully in the economy growth. Their slice is bigger in overall terms, but it's a smaller part of the overall pie.

I think that the more important metric is that Americans are working longer hours and are falling more in debt simply in order to get the basics of a house, car, and food. Yes, they can buy a lot more and better consumer goods. Now their TV is HD, and they have smartphones instead of landlines, their cars have airbags and GPS, and so forth. But I question how well that measures actual quality of life. Some advancements are great, but some seem to just make people more miserable. More addictive designer drugs and social media, for example.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Spike, whom I largely agree with on this point.

Greetings!

Excellent points, Jhkim. I agree entirely. It has been very troubling how through the years, whether it is a Republican administration or a Democrat administration, there's always more talk, but nothing really changes. It's all lies and BS.

Trump is the first President since Reagan that has actually kept his promises, and actually made REAL changes. I made more money, paid less taxes, and experienced less fees, red tape, and BS in the process of starting my business.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the façade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
"Delenda Est Parthia!"

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1105 on: November 18, 2020, 06:36:03 pm »
I think that the more important metric is that Americans are working longer hours and are falling more in debt simply in order to get the basics of a house, car, and food. Yes, they can buy a lot more and better consumer goods. Now their TV is HD, and they have smartphones instead of landlines, their cars have airbags and GPS, and so forth. But I question how well that measures actual quality of life. Some advancements are great, but some seem to just make people more miserable. More addictive designer drugs and social media, for example.

Excellent points, Jhkim. I agree entirely. It has been very troubling how through the years, whether it is a Republican administration or a Democrat administration, there's always more talk, but nothing really changes. It's all lies and BS.

Trump is the first President since Reagan that has actually kept his promises, and actually made REAL changes. I made more money, paid less taxes, and experienced less fees, red tape, and BS in the process of starting my business.

On average, though, Americans have gone more into debt under Trump. Here's a graph from Marketwatch of consumer debt levels, for example,



Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-debt-is-now-breaching-levels-last-reached-during-the-2008-financial-crisis-2019-06-19


It seems to me that Trump's main economic approaches have been overall standard strategy for Republicans: cut taxes and cut regulations. Also like previous Republican administrations, government spending hasn't decreased, and the deficit has continued to grow. In the long-term, the trend has been household debt going up since the 1950s under both Democrat and Republican administrations. But particularly in recent times, some approaches have lead to even faster increases. The Bush administration oversaw the sharpest increase, but there was also increase under Trump.

I think that the mainstream of both Democrats and Republicans are in bed with Wall Street, and they have contributed to this trend where most Americans are doing worse and the rich are getting richer. In my mind, though, politics is always about choosing the lesser of evils. Economics is tricky, and I'm far from completely sure about it, but I have to make a judgement about what policies I feel are most believable. Regarding Republican economics - the justification I've most often seen has been that cutting taxes on the rich helps grow the economy and lifts everyone up. But what I see is that everyone isn't being raised up.

EOTB

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1106 on: November 18, 2020, 06:51:49 pm »
Interesting thought experiment from Macris

https://macris.substack.com/p/trump-at-the-rubicon
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oggsmash

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1107 on: November 18, 2020, 07:08:39 pm »
I think that the more important metric is that Americans are working longer hours and are falling more in debt simply in order to get the basics of a house, car, and food. Yes, they can buy a lot more and better consumer goods. Now their TV is HD, and they have smartphones instead of landlines, their cars have airbags and GPS, and so forth. But I question how well that measures actual quality of life. Some advancements are great, but some seem to just make people more miserable. More addictive designer drugs and social media, for example.

Excellent points, Jhkim. I agree entirely. It has been very troubling how through the years, whether it is a Republican administration or a Democrat administration, there's always more talk, but nothing really changes. It's all lies and BS.

Trump is the first President since Reagan that has actually kept his promises, and actually made REAL changes. I made more money, paid less taxes, and experienced less fees, red tape, and BS in the process of starting my business.

On average, though, Americans have gone more into debt under Trump. Here's a graph from Marketwatch of consumer debt levels, for example,



Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-debt-is-now-breaching-levels-last-reached-during-the-2008-financial-crisis-2019-06-19


It seems to me that Trump's main economic approaches have been overall standard strategy for Republicans: cut taxes and cut regulations. Also like previous Republican administrations, government spending hasn't decreased, and the deficit has continued to grow. In the long-term, the trend has been household debt going up since the 1950s under both Democrat and Republican administrations. But particularly in recent times, some approaches have lead to even faster increases. The Bush administration oversaw the sharpest increase, but there was also increase under Trump.

I think that the mainstream of both Democrats and Republicans are in bed with Wall Street, and they have contributed to this trend where most Americans are doing worse and the rich are getting richer. In my mind, though, politics is always about choosing the lesser of evils. Economics is tricky, and I'm far from completely sure about it, but I have to make a judgement about what policies I feel are most believable. Regarding Republican economics - the justification I've most often seen has been that cutting taxes on the rich helps grow the economy and lifts everyone up. But what I see is that everyone isn't being raised up.
  Stupid people finance their recreation.  Stupid people decide to get an expensive 4 year degree instead of looking for a 2  years of technical training to make money.  Stupid people dont pay cash for cars.  Stupid people get credit cards (I would allow for saying stupid people carry a balance on credit cards).  That graph looks like Americans consistently get more and more stupid and careless with their money.  I have a feeling they got fatter under trump too, since it appears getting stupider also makes people get fatter.  Two things Americans damn sure have done since the 50's is waste a shitload of money and get fat.

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1108 on: November 18, 2020, 07:26:31 pm »
  Stupid people finance their recreation.  Stupid people decide to get an expensive 4 year degree instead of looking for a 2  years of technical training to make money.  Stupid people dont pay cash for cars.  Stupid people get credit cards (I would allow for saying stupid people carry a balance on credit cards).  That graph looks like Americans consistently get more and more stupid and careless with their money.  I have a feeling they got fatter under trump too, since it appears getting stupider also makes people get fatter.  Two things Americans damn sure have done since the 50's is waste a shitload of money and get fat.

I don't disagree that people are stupid (on average) - but to rephrase my point using your language...  It appears that people keep getting stupider, but they got stupid *faster* under Bush and Trump. It's still a question of the lesser evil.

Shasarak

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1109 on: November 18, 2020, 07:28:29 pm »
It is really simple economics here, if the cost of servicing your debt goes down then people will be able to afford to have more debt.

Lets pretend the interest rate is 10%, a $100k house will cost you $10k per year in interest payments.

If the interest rate is 5%, a $200k house will cost you $10k per year in interest payments.

The cost of servicing both houses is the same but magically the second example has twice as much debt.
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