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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 185146 times)

consolcwby

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #615 on: November 06, 2020, 01:58:55 AM »
One problem with the version of ranked voting you're describing is a lot of people think the candidate with the most public support should win, not someone who gets the edge because they're the second choice.
Sure, but if you have 10 candidates, 9 of them get 9.9% of the vote and 1 of them gets get 10.9%, is that really the candidate with the "most support"? Technically, yes, but... many people might say, "If I'd known my guy wasn't getting in, and losing just by 1%... I wouldn't have voted for that guy..."

You can think of preferential as rounds of voting where the lowest-placed person is excluded - but only the people who voted for that person get to vote again. Many countries do rounds of voting, especially for Presidential positions, but of course with a secret ballot everyone gets a second, third, etc vote, not just those who voted for the loser. Preferential voting allows those who voted for the least-popular candidate to still have a say without compromising the secrecy of the ballot. "Okay, if you can't have this guy, who would you choose?"

As I said, preferential voting reduces polarisation because the major parties have to take on some of the policies of the minor parties to get their support. In the US, the Democrats would probably take on more Green policies, and the Republicans more Libertarian policies, but each would at least try to not completely alienate those minor parties. Parties would be less polarised, and more inclusive of "middle of the road" policies.

As well, with first-past-the-post, the support for minor parties will always be small. Since they've no chance of getting in, their support will be limited to the idealistic or extremely disillusioned. "Yeah he won't get in, but fuck you." With preferential voting you still have your 2nd, etc choice, which allows you to say, "Fuck you, but -" And so we find in Australia that third party votes hover between 10-25% of the primary vote overall. The amount varies - if it's 10% the major parties tend to ignore them, but because they ignore them their support gradually increases to 25% or so, and 1-2 even get into some parliaments (our state parliament has 3 Greens and 3 independents out of 88 lower house members), and then they start listening again - but by this time those minor parties are better-established, so... again, less polarisation.

With less polarisation, there would be less motivation for electoral fraud, and at the same time less motivation for alleging electoral fraud.
Sorry, you may have forgotten, but in the United States the people do NOT vote for candidates DIRECTLY. They vote for the states' ELECTORS. So, everything you just said would never work. It would just lead to even GREATER FRAUD! We are a REPUBLIC, not a democracy:
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/provisions
Quote
Twelfth Amendment

The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;--The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.
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                                                                                  https://youtu.be/ShaxpuohBWs?si

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #616 on: November 06, 2020, 02:21:30 AM »
As I said, preferential voting reduces polarisation because the major parties have to take on some of the policies of the minor parties to get their support. In the US, the Democrats would probably take on more Green policies, and the Republicans more Libertarian policies, but each would at least try to not completely alienate those minor parties. Parties would be less polarised, and more inclusive of "middle of the road" policies.
Sorry, you may have forgotten, but in the United States the people do NOT vote for candidates DIRECTLY. They vote for the states' ELECTORS. So, everything you just said would never work. It would just lead to even GREATER FRAUD! We are a REPUBLIC, not a democracy:
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/provisions
consolcwby, the winner is ultimately determined by the states' electors, but people still vote for a specific presidential candidate. When you vote, you see that the choices listed on your ballot for president are not electors, but rather candidates for president - including independent and third-party candidates. Voters can even put on write-in candidates. The electors might not follow the popular vote - but people's votes are still for the actual candidates, not which electors get to vote.

States can and have implemented laws that specify how voters choices go. Maine has now implemented ranked-choice voting, which was used in the 2020 General Elections. Here are some articles about it:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/maine-becomes-first-state-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-in-a-presidential-election-11604062812
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Maine

Kyle Aaron

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #617 on: November 06, 2020, 04:38:20 AM »
consolcwby must not have voted before or he'd know what a Presidential ballot paper looks like.

Plus, I'm talking about more than just Presidential elections. I know that's the focus right now because of the neck-and-neck race, but you've got counties and sheriffs and state lower and upper houses and mayors and so on and so forth. It's possible to have one system for one of those and another for others (our upper houses do this weird proportional thing...)
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Kyle Aaron

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #618 on: November 06, 2020, 04:51:06 AM »
I'm not quite clear on how independent election commissions get instituted, but I agree it seems like a good idea. I get that they have an independent budget so they're not dependent on the legislative branch, but how do members get appointed?
Officially the Commissioner and deputies etc are appointed by the Governor General, but "with the advice of" the federal Cabinet. It's commonly a former justice, senior cop, that sort of person, sometimes military. In other words, you make one institution impartial by topping it up with people from other impartial institutions.

There are endless committees and so on appointed to redraw electoral boundaries and all that. As for their funding, it's the same as many government departments. Basically they just give everyone a salary and then leave them to it.

I think there's a certain foresight in it, rather than integrity. We know from the history of Queensland which engaged in insane gerrymandering so that the boss could get in with 20% of the vote - still eventually he got knocked over, and then things were cleaned up. So if your party fucks with things it eventually comes back to bite you, and the other guys may turn it around and fuck you badly, too. Political mutually assured destruction.

This foresight seems to be absent in the US parties at federal level. Like, if you stack the Supreme Court with extra guys to swing it your way, what's your successor going to do? In 50 years the Supreme Court would be bigger than Congress. It's more sensible to just not fuck with things and then, you know, try to get people to vote for you based on your actual policies and results.

Now this was interesting, even 28% of LGBT/etc voted for old Drumf.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
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Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #619 on: November 06, 2020, 10:13:17 AM »
I think there's a certain foresight in it, rather than integrity. We know from the history of Queensland which engaged in insane gerrymandering so that the boss could get in with 20% of the vote - still eventually he got knocked over, and then things were cleaned up. So if your party fucks with things it eventually comes back to bite you, and the other guys may turn it around and fuck you badly, too. Political mutually assured destruction.
That sounds like it's more about culture/traditions, than the institutions themselves. Which wouldn't work in the US right now, because the two parties keep launching waves of mutually assured destruction. One of them was even called the "nuclear option", back when it was triggered -- that was the 2011 change by Harry Reid (D), which got rid of procedural rules in the Senate that allowed the minority party to hold up appointments and bills, and thus forced some degree of comity or consensus. Which recently bit the Democrats in the ass, because it's that rule change that allowed the Republicans to push through the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett without any Democratic support. And it's only escalating, for example with all the talk about court-packing.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 10:16:43 AM by Pat »

Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #620 on: November 06, 2020, 10:31:52 AM »
Now this was interesting, even 28% of LGBT/etc voted for old Drumf.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
One of the biggest takeaways in this election is Trump was up in almost every demographic, except white men. He did better among LGBT+ voters, among women voters, among black voters, and among hispanic voters -- Zapata County in Texas flipped from 66% voting for Hillary in 2016 to almost the same number voting for Trump, this year. Overall, the Rio Grande Valley shifted 10 points toward Trump. Similar gains among hispanics in southern Florida, and not just among those of Cuban descent. That helps explain why the Republicans are gaining seats in the House and holding steady in the Senate -- even if Biden ends up winning, it was Trump not Biden who helped the candidates down the ticket.

This isn't a huge flip in absolute terms, just a few percentage points. But since Republicans have traditionally done so poorly among those groups, the relative gains are large. The blue stranglehold on most of those demographics seems to be gradually eroding.

https://news.kointopic.com/2020/11/05/donald-trump-made-gains-in-every-demographic-except-for-white-men/
https://www.statesman.com/opinion/20201105/first-reading-why-it-was-viva-trump-in-zapata-county
https://hotair.com/archives/karen-townsend/2020/11/05/al-sharpton-admits-trump-well-black-hispanic-voters-appealed-minorities/
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 10:37:53 AM by Pat »

Brad

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #621 on: November 06, 2020, 11:17:53 AM »
There is so much rampant fraud going on right now that the only way you could possibly believe otherwise is if you're a fucking moron or so mesmerized by the left that you think they couldn't possibly cheat because they're paragons of virtue (go back to "fucking moron" comment).

Trump is litigating this bullshit, so hopefully there are massive recounts and all these fake ballots thrown out. If not, bring on the boogaloo.
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RandyB

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #622 on: November 06, 2020, 11:30:51 AM »
There is so much rampant fraud going on right now that the only way you could possibly believe otherwise is if you're a fucking moron or so mesmerized by the left that you think they couldn't possibly cheat because they're paragons of virtue (go back to "fucking moron" comment).

Trump is litigating this bullshit, so hopefully there are massive recounts and all these fake ballots thrown out. If not, bring on the boogaloo.

You left out a third option: fellow traveler of the perpetrators and intentionally trying to gaslight as many people as possible.

jeff37923

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #623 on: November 06, 2020, 11:33:18 AM »
So he says you can check them for yourselves - but there isn't any specific information included to check. There's just the claim that "Someone said it on Twitter" - which I don't consider to be proof of anything.

I'll let him answer this one.

Again folks, Larry Correia.

Quote
It is kind of amazing how the same dishonest shitheads who kept repeating debunked things like the Very Fine People narrative for four years, can now dismiss giant articles chronicling 10 examples of potential voter fraud because one of them kinda gets a plausible explanation several hours after I wrote the article. Ergo, the other 9 cease to exist and HOW DARE YOU INSINUATE THAT HUMAN BEINGS EVER DO ANYTHING DISHONEST!

It's amazing how that works.

After a few days of debating this I'm pretty sure that everybody believes fraud happened. Only one side has to ignore human nature and history to pretend that fraud couldn't possibly have happened. Except they know it too. They  just don't want to come out and admit they're okay with fraud because of team sports.

Ironically, these are the same people who are so fundamentally dishonest that they'll believe anything about the other team, regardless of how little evidence there is.

I've noticed that most of my liberal friends who I consider to be honest people with integrity haven't said much on this subject. They'll be glad if Trump is gone because that benefits their interests, and that's fine. I respect that. However I'm not seeing any of them comment on the process, because this clusterfuck of an election is pretty much indefensible.

But the dishonest little shits? Oh man. It can practically rain statistical miracles and they'll look you in the eye and claim that's totally normal.
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Brad

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #624 on: November 06, 2020, 11:53:18 AM »
You left out a third option: fellow traveler of the perpetrators and intentionally trying to gaslight as many people as possible.

Good catch. There are several posters on here that are revealing themselves to be either really, really stupid or outright shills for the CCP. There's no other explanation.

I'll let him answer this one.

So what you're saying is leftists believe anything with zero evidence if it fits a narrative they like, and no amount of evidence could possibly make them believe anything to the contrary. It's times like these that make me remember why I hated Hegel so much, and  also all the rubes in grad school who were hugging his nuts. Pathetic.
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jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #625 on: November 06, 2020, 12:12:29 PM »
So he says you can check them for yourselves - but there isn't any specific information included to check. There's just the claim that "Someone said it on Twitter" - which I don't consider to be proof of anything.
I'll let him answer this one.

Again folks, Larry Correia.

Quote
It is kind of amazing how the same dishonest shitheads who kept repeating debunked things like the Very Fine People narrative for four years, can now dismiss giant articles chronicling 10 examples of potential voter fraud because one of them kinda gets a plausible explanation several hours after I wrote the article. Ergo, the other 9 cease to exist and HOW DARE YOU INSINUATE THAT HUMAN BEINGS EVER DO ANYTHING DISHONEST!

It's amazing how that works.

After a few days of debating this I'm pretty sure that everybody believes fraud happened. Only one side has to ignore human nature and history to pretend that fraud couldn't possibly have happened. Except they know it too. They  just don't want to come out and admit they're okay with fraud because of team sports.

Ironically, these are the same people who are so fundamentally dishonest that they'll believe anything about the other team, regardless of how little evidence there is.

I've noticed that most of my liberal friends who I consider to be honest people with integrity haven't said much on this subject. They'll be glad if Trump is gone because that benefits their interests, and that's fine. I respect that. However I'm not seeing any of them comment on the process, because this clusterfuck of an election is pretty much indefensible.

But the dishonest little shits? Oh man. It can practically rain statistical miracles and they'll look you in the eye and claim that's totally normal.

This is a naked ad-hominem. I believe that fraud may well have occurred - there have been hundreds of documented cases of fraud in past elections, after all.

But I'm asking for specific evidence before I'll believe any particular claim of fraud.

jeff37923

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #626 on: November 06, 2020, 12:15:14 PM »
A good statistical breakdown of the registration and voting numbers which are just a few reasons why people are saying that there is rampant fraud going on.

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572?fbclid=IwAR0YBBaMD2MlfMCl8C0teK2BzFfsDmgHGNAr7pX-fdkOAikQBzporVVwN8M
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jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #627 on: November 06, 2020, 12:30:59 PM »
A good statistical breakdown of the registration and voting numbers which are just a few reasons why people are saying that there is rampant fraud going on.

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572?fbclid=IwAR0YBBaMD2MlfMCl8C0teK2BzFfsDmgHGNAr7pX-fdkOAikQBzporVVwN8M
Thanks, jeff. This is at least some specific claims. However, from the article, Hounsell at least gives specific states and numbers, but he doesn't explain the sources for those numbers. He says he's using adjusted polling data - but polls vary in their numbers and reliability. For example, here is his first claim.

Quote from: Scott Hounsell
In all of the polling data (*when adjusted), it told us Trump was going to win by larger margins among minority voters.  The numbers literally don’t lie.  In North Carolina, Democrats lost 161,000 voters since 2016 while Republicans gained 72,000 voters.  You want us to believe that Republicans, who have registered as such since the Trump era, walked into the voting booth on Election day and pulled the trigger for Biden?  In that state, Trump currently leads by 77,000 votes, in a state Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, and that Republicans picked up a 230k voter margin since?  I call BS.

There is an asterisk by saying "when adjusted", which seems to indicate a footnote, but there isn't any footnote that I could see. What polls is he using to get these numbers, and what were the adjustments?

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #628 on: November 06, 2020, 01:03:42 PM »
Looks like reality is starting to sink in. Fox News is starting to admit Biden won. Rush Limbaugh admits Biden won. Internals from the Trump administration are saying the hard evidence of fraud is "not looking good" and their legal challenges are no longer looking promising as even their best case scenarios are not adding up to enough votes to change the result of the election. Their dusting off plans for Trump to start his own television news network. Quotes of "there will be a peaceful transition of power" from Trump officials.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 01:06:11 PM by Mistwell »

jeff37923

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #629 on: November 06, 2020, 01:07:11 PM »
Looks like reality is starting to sink in. Fox News is starting to admit Biden won. Rush Limbaugh admits Biden won. Internals from the Trump administration are saying the hard evidence of fraud is "not looking good" and their legal challenges are no longer looking promising as even their best case scenarios are not adding up to enough votes to change the result of the election. Their dusting off plans for Trump to start his own television news network. Quotes of "there will be a peaceful transition of power" from Trump officials.

All you have is FUD anymore. Starting to admit is  not the act of admitting.

https://www.newsweek.com/rush-limbaugh-walks-back-his-comments-after-accusations-he-said-biden-won-election-1545565

"Meh."