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Fan Forums => The RPGPundit's Own Forum => Topic started by: deadDMwalking on July 17, 2020, 04:22:33 PM

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 17, 2020, 04:22:33 PM
The non-Partisan Cook Political Report released an electoral map (https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings071420.pdf?) based on how they rate each state.  They currently rate 279 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Democrat and 187 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Republican.  Compared to Real Clear Politics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html) which includes Missouri and Texas as toss-ups, the Cook Political report is assigning them to Trump, along with Iowa and Ohio.  Even with that, winning the 72 electoral votes listed as 'toss-up' (which is comprised of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as a Maine district) Biden would win 279 to 259.  It would require Trump to run the table and poach at least one large State from the Lean Democrat column.  

Current polls in the 'toss-up' states are unfavorable to Trump (polling numbers from 538's polling average):

Arizona (Biden +2.6%)
Florida (Biden +6.8%)
Georgia (Biden +1.0%)
North Carolina (Biden +2.9%)

Even Ohio, which is listed as Lean Republican and was included with Trump's electoral totals is polling with Biden at +2.2%
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RPGPundit on July 17, 2020, 05:31:35 PM
It is interesting, but to say that any polling company is "non-partisan" is disingenuous. Considering that the vast majority of pollsters are sociologists and these are 96+% hard-left Democrats, it makes all polls inherently difficult to think of as reliable.

However, I DO agree that we have to be worried about this. That we can't just blindly assume that Trump is going to win and the Polls are lies. I understand why we would think that, because of 2016, The "Hillary has a 96% chance of winning!" Year where pollsters showed themselves for the blatant partisan hacks they really were. But an excess of confidence is extremely dangerous. We could be the ones in the bubble right now. And the volatility of this year is very hard to analyze.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on July 18, 2020, 07:55:53 AM
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 18, 2020, 10:06:34 PM
If you're interested in betting on the election, I would start with Sports Geek (https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sportsbooks/political/).  They have links to legal betting sites and recommendations.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 19, 2020, 01:28:51 AM
Your gloating won't age well, not only because the polls can't be trusted but because currently your fellow travelers are doing everything in their power to re-elect Trump. But you lefties never learn.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 19, 2020, 05:47:55 AM
November is ages away from now in political terms. Biden doesn't even have a VP, neither party has hosted their convention and there have been zero debates. All of these are major factors and they haven't occurred yet.

However, the MSM narrative is even more naked than in 2016. Everything is about demoralizing Trump supporters to keep them from them from voting and assuring the GenZ democrats they're about to win bigly so they vote for Dementia JoJo.

Considering the disastrous track records states had counting votes during the primaries, its possible it might be a week after the election before we have a winner. Voting irregularities, or at least accusations, will be flying fast and furious from all sides.

The only "sure thing" is the country will be further torn apart in November and beyond.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 19, 2020, 02:20:06 PM
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.  

I think a narrative that Trump can't win is potentially counterproductive for Democrats.  The importance of EVERY VOTER making their opinion known is crucial.  Toward that end, I'm in favor of increasing access to absentee ballots and increasing vote security by using paper ballots (having a paper trail) in the event there are irregularities.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 04:05:08 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1140668
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.


Ah, yes! The good old "if the woman who barely got 1% of the total vote didn't exist $Hillary would have won" narrative.

Cuz Jill voters are totally interchangeable with $Hill voters, and there's no way that everyone who voted for Jill absolutely HATED $Hillary and would never have voted for her anyway. At least some of them must have been democratic hopefuls who just fell under the spell of Hippie Grandma and were led astray by her relative good looks despite her age and forgot to vote for the warmongering corporate candidate who stood against everything the average Green voter would believe in. There's NO way most of those people were #BernieOrJill voters who had already made up their minds NEVER to vote for the Queen of Warmongers well before election day and specifically made their way to the polls to tell Democrats that they could go fuck themselves. There HAS to be a way they would have voted for a neocon in liberal clothing instead.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Doc Sammy on July 19, 2020, 04:11:45 PM
Quote from: Mjollnir;1140482
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.

I highly doubt that.Trump and Biden both have issues with enthusiasm right now but Biden's enthusiasm is completely non-existent while Trump's enthusiasm is depressed and with cancel culture at a fever pitch, it's difficult to tell how much of that is an actual lack of enthusiasm and how much is a lack of visible enthusiasm out of fear of being targeted by some SJW on social media AKA a silent majority

We won't know until November and Biden hasn't even picked a goddamn fucking running mate yet. I'm not making any predictions or giving any ballpark guesses until Joe Biden has a running mate for Vice President or we get a presidential debate on TV, whichever comes first.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on July 19, 2020, 04:41:00 PM
6000 people turned out to the rally in Tulsa despite covid and domestic terrorists attacking attendees.  There's continuous Trump boat rallies on both coasts.  There was that big pro Trump, pro Police march in New York recently.  Trump is shattering Primary records in terms of number of votes.  Republicans are outregistering Democrats in most battlefield states.  Blacks are turning away from Biden or switching to Trump or Kanye.  Latinos are turning towards Trump (especially in Miami -- hmm wonder why).  Universities won't be open which means dipshit student votes will be way down.

Looks good to me.

Luckily up here in Soviet Canuckistan the Conservative Party leadership race saw a massive surge in registrations and even my hippie-dippie sister is starting to get fed up with Baron von Fancy Socks.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 04:51:19 PM
It doesn't matter who wins. Everybody will lose.

I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 05:42:48 PM
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140685
I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.

Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on July 19, 2020, 06:00:53 PM
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

To make them pay for the wall that we no longer need?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 06:10:14 PM
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

Colonialism knows no bounds. smfh
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 06:14:18 PM
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?


To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.

Also, pre-empt China's world domination plot.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 06:21:19 PM
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140697
To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.
The same effective way America managed to stop the Taliban and Isis. Except also giving the Taliban Tickets into the USA.

Quote
Also, pre-empt China's world domination plot.
There can be more done but that would require a hard 'cold war' type announcement. Not a good position to do that now.

I appreciate your healthy skepticism but at times black pills become just blindness inducers.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 06:35:36 PM
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140697
To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.


OR, they could, you know... legalize drugs and let the "problem" sort itself out. Then Central and South American countries could boost their economies by cultivating legal drugs and selling them to the USA, negating the need for illegal immigration in general.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 19, 2020, 07:25:57 PM
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140685
It doesn't matter who wins. Everybody will lose.

I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.


I'm a Mexican and I approve this message.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 08:10:48 PM
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140699
The same effective way America managed to stop the Taliban and Isis. Except also giving the Taliban Tickets into the USA.


There can be more done but that would require a hard 'cold war' type announcement. Not a good position to do that now.

I appreciate your healthy skepticism but at times black pills become just blindness inducers.


There's nothing healthy about it. The political parties are cancerous now. They're killing America while China and Russia circle us like vultures.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: danskmacabre on July 19, 2020, 08:13:45 PM
I'm not an American and don't live there.
However from the feel I get from conversations and how actually events are panning out, unless Trump voters are simply too afraid to go out and vote, then Trump will will 2020, for better or worse.

One thing is for sure, the impact of Trump winning or Biden winning in November is going to effect all of the west to some degree and I think dramatically in the USA.
With this and the Corona Virus still affecting us all, it's probably a good idea to have a bug out plan "just in case"  

I'm not saying some some of apocalyptic event or general collapse of civilization, but things seem like they're getting really serious and it hasn't peaked yet.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on July 19, 2020, 08:14:17 PM
Quote from: KingCheops;1140682
Baron von Fancy Socks.


I love that. It is right up there with Governor Party Tits. Kudos!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 08:44:35 PM
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140710
The political parties are cancerous now.
NOW? When where they ever not cancerous?
Quote
They're killing America while China and Russia circle us like vultures.
You're grossly overestimating both China and Russia.

Not that the USA is infallible but I see its core issues as social issues, with the political parties being more expressions of said issues than in reverse.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 19, 2020, 10:08:57 PM
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

I'm not a fan of "enthusiasm as indicator" because Hillary couldn't fill a high school gym and still almost won.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 11:18:11 PM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1140726
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

Again Id rather it be in the open than hidden. This was always gonna happen this way one way or the other. And the way that happening right now is one of the better ways.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: danskmacabre on July 20, 2020, 12:58:46 AM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1140726
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

Yeah I agree. I do restrict conversations with certain friends.
Whilst I consider myself more or less "Centre Left", a few of my friends IMO have gone more extreme left and some areas of discission are off limits by unspoken consent.
It does train friendships somewhat at times, but I've working on changing my circle of friends over the last year or so with people who are more moderate or just more open to discussion with varying opinions.

As to family, well, I'm somewhat of a black sheep in my family anyway, so no loss there with a few exceptions with those who can remain calm in a discussion.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on July 20, 2020, 11:58:58 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1140586
If you're interested in betting on the election, I would start with Sports Geek (https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sportsbooks/political/).  They have links to legal betting sites and recommendations.

Many thanks

Quote from: Doc Sammy;1140677
I highly doubt that.Trump and Biden both have issues with enthusiasm right now but Biden's enthusiasm is completely non-existent while Trump's enthusiasm is depressed and with cancel culture at a fever pitch, it's difficult to tell how much of that is an actual lack of enthusiasm and how much is a lack of visible enthusiasm out of fear of being targeted by some SJW on social media AKA a silent majority

We won't know until November and Biden hasn't even picked a goddamn fucking running mate yet. I'm not making any predictions or giving any ballpark guesses until Joe Biden has a running mate for Vice President or we get a presidential debate on TV, whichever comes first.

Biden doesn't need enthusiasm, he has demographics, democrats galvanized against orange man (who is very, vary bad), and right wingers have been systematically purged from social media for "election interference". The meme warriors that did so much to get Trump elected have taken their ball and gone home. Trump hasn't made good on any of the promises that motivated his voters. When the BLM riots kicked off, and kept getting worse, he has nowhere to be found.

Trump's win in 2020 was a long shot. He was going up against one of the most hated politicians in American history and still barely won. I have no doubt Trump will trounce Biden hilariously in the debates, but it won't matter. Too many of the people he needs to come out are tired of "winning" and tired of his bloviating, empty BS. Even the Q-tards ore beginning to distrust the plan. If I'm wrong then by all means ridicule me on Nov 8th, but I don't know if Biden can lose if he tries.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 20, 2020, 03:36:10 PM
Quote from: Mjollnir;1140821
Many thanks



Biden doesn't need enthusiasm, he has demographics, democrats galvanized against orange man (who is very, vary bad), and right wingers have been systematically purged from social media for "election interference". The meme warriors that did so much to get Trump elected have taken their ball and gone home. Trump hasn't made good on any of the promises that motivated his voters. When the BLM riots kicked off, and kept getting worse, he has nowhere to be found.

Trump's win in 2020 was a long shot. He was going up against one of the most hated politicians in American history and still barely won. I have no doubt Trump will trounce Biden hilariously in the debates, but it won't matter. Too many of the people he needs to come out are tired of "winning" and tired of his bloviating, empty BS. Even the Q-tards ore beginning to distrust the plan. If I'm wrong then by all means ridicule me on Nov 8th, but I don't know if Biden can lose if he tries.

Except this flies right in the face of 'record breaking Republican primary turnout, even in states where Trump's primary is unopposed'.

I'm sorry, you can't have BOTH these things be true. Either the Silent Majority is loading the mother of all 'fuck you's' into the electoral artillery chamber, or they're not even in the ballpark.

Worse, Biden is not going to excite the base. He's the Democrat answer to Jeb Bush. He's already locked himself into a tight spot by declaring a woman POC will be his VP nominee, which limits his options drastically. His propensity to lose his train of thought after it's left the station is just going to make it even more bizarre.

On the upshot, Trump will get to practice making his funny faces during the debates when Biden suddenly veers off into la-la land and starts talking about Eskimo double rainbows and how not voting for Biden means you're not really black.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on July 22, 2020, 06:47:58 AM
You guys scare me.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 24, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
From the Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/senate/senate-overview/almost-100-days-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate), with 100 days to the election, Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate.  

The current composition of the Senate is 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats).  In order to win the Senate, the Democrats would need to pick up 4 seats, or 3 seats plus the Presidency.  There is an expectation that Doug Jones of Alabama loses his seat, so in order to pick up the ~5 seats Democrats need.

It Appears that Arizona and Colorado will elect Democrats; Mark Kelly is an extremely strong candidate running against an appointed Senator (she lost her race to the Senate) and polls show Kelly with a 7-10% lead.  Colorado is a state that Clinton won, and the state seems to have moved left in the intervening 4 years; there have been few recent polls but Hickenlooper had a double-digit lead against the Incumbent since he won the primary.  

North Carolina and Iowa are both showing a Democrat lead.  Montana has a popular former governor running for the Senate with a virtual tie with the incumbent; although it is a ruby-red state, it looks like it will a close election.  Susan Collins in Maine is very vulnerable, polling behind her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.  

The most vulnerable Democrat is in Michigan - where polls show Democratic incumbent Gary Peters leading John James by 9%.  

Summary: Democrats are defending 12 seats is 'solid D' territory, 1 in Lean D territory, and one in Lean R territory that they're likely to lose.  Pickup opportunities for the Democrats include Arizona (rated lean-D), Colorado, Ga (1 of the 2), Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina.  Even in 'Lean Republican' territory (Georgia's OTHER election and Kansas) there are signs that it may end up being more competitive.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 24, 2020, 09:21:06 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Except this flies right in the face of 'record breaking Republican primary turnout, even in states where Trump's primary is unopposed'.


That was ages ago in the pre-BLM world.

That was back when Trump supporters believed the world would return to normal where Trump could get the economy restarted and revving back into gear, but Trump underestimated the evil of the MSM and governors who manipulated the shamdemic to drown the economy in the shitter.


Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Either the Silent Majority is loading the mother of all 'fuck you's' into the electoral artillery chamber, or they're not even in the ballpark.


Exactly true.

Nobody knows if the Silent Majority exists...or what they will actually do. No poll can be trusted because the MSM is nothing but anti-American lying filth and even FOX news have been testing out their new "leftist-lite" approach.

Also, the Silent Majority has that name because they don't vote, so we would have to see some monstrous new voter registrations for Republicans to believe they're even motivated to get off their couch.

Worse, even if the Silent Majority exists and leaps into the fray, it might not matter against the left's election fraud. States with mail-in voting might as well be counted as Biden wins. Any state where there's "ballot harvesting" operation is already lost.


Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Worse, Biden is not going to excite the base.


His base knows Biden's not going to be the power in the White House. They aren't voting for Biden. He's just the name on the ticket and won't be more than a figurehead, if he's even kept around. Democrats are voting for liberal and Marxist control and destruction of the nation...and they are VERY motivated to make that happen.  

In fact, Biden babbling nonsense at the debates might even help him. He doesn't matter to his voters, but Trump voters might see Biden drooling and mistakenly believe there's nobody dumb enough for vote for Biden when we most certainly have an entire nation full of worthless morons excited to destroy everything past Americans sacrificed to ensure.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 25, 2020, 08:12:48 AM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1141658
His base knows Biden's not going to be the power in the White House. They aren't voting for Biden. He's just the name on the ticket and won't be more than a figurehead, if he's even kept around. Democrats are voting for liberal and Marxist control and destruction of the nation...and they are VERY motivated to make that happen.  

In fact, Biden babbling nonsense at the debates might even help him. He doesn't matter to his voters, but Trump voters might see Biden drooling and mistakenly believe there's nobody dumb enough for vote for Biden when we most certainly have an entire nation full of worthless morons excited to destroy everything past Americans sacrificed to ensure.
That's pretty fucking sad, you know. Not you, but the fact that Democrats are basically electing a meat puppet.

Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Aglondir on July 25, 2020, 09:35:21 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1141686
Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.

We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 28, 2020, 10:14:59 AM
The Cook Report adjusted it's rating of Florida from 'toss-up' to 'Lean Democrat'.  In my original post, it was polling significantly more friendly toward Biden than the other 'toss up' states in large part because Biden appears to be doing much better with seniors than any recent Democratic candidates.  

Real Clear Politics has a tool (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html) that lets you create what you think is the most likely electoral map.  On the 'base map', Biden starts with 222 electoral votes to Trump's 115.  201 Electoral votes are listed as toss-up including Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia and, of course, Florida (as well as one district in Maine and one district in Nebraska).  

If Biden winds Florida without a single 'toss-up state', he would have 251 electoral votes.  Winning Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) would give him the victory, or winning basically any two states besides Nevada/Iowa (6 electoral votes each).  For example, winning Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan would put Biden at 277 electoral votes.  Trump winning every other battleground state wouldn't make a difference.  

Effectively, that puts Florida into 'must-win' territory.  It has been reported that internal polls that Trump relies on 'in aggregate' show him with a smaller share of the electorate in states he won handily - ie, winning Texas by 5 points when in 2016 he won by 9.  A shift of 4 points toward the Democratic opponent.  A universal 4% shift compared to 2016 results would shift the following States from the Republican to the Democratic candidate:

Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.  

The National Polls of voters at the end of 2016 showed Clinton with a 2-4% lead (and a negative trend, with late breaking news about the FBI reopening an investigation); she ended up wining the Popular vote by 2%.  If the electorate were exactly like the 2016 electorate (ignoring any demographic changes, or 'enthusiasm changes'), Trump would need to cut the popular vote lead down below 4% - that would potentially allow him to lose only Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which would result in 269 Electoral votes for Biden; Trump would have to win NV, AZ, TX, IA, MO, FL, GA, NC, OH, NH, ME2.  

With 98 days to go until the election, this is just a snapshot, but it may explain why the White House is now endorsing a mask policy, and why the White House asked the governor in Tennessee to close bars (he is not doing so).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on July 29, 2020, 10:14:11 AM
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F@€#ed and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 29, 2020, 02:47:55 PM
Quote from: Chris24601;1142236
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F*d and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.


I spend a fair bit of time evaluating the polls.  There are known differences between 'all adults', versus 'registered voters' versus 'likely voters'.  As you move from one to the other, the electorate becomes more Republican leaning, and the polls reflect that.  The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/upshot/polls-political-party-republicans.html) addressed this in an article today asking: Are the Polls Missing Republican Voters?

The article is worth a read, but here's one quote:

Quote

Mr. Trump's problem wasn't the number of people who said they voted for him last time: It was that only 86 percent of those who said they voted for him last time said they would do so again. Perhaps there's a way the poll could have the right number of voters who said they voted for Mr. Trump last time, but not this time. It would have to be an awfully specific form of polling error.


Building on that, Politico (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/28/letter-to-washington-scranton-white-working-class-381320) had an article yesterday visiting with people in Scranton, PA - the type of town that you'd expect Trump to do well with.  Once again, the article is worth a read; for Trump to raise his status in the polls, it would be helpful if he could motivate long-time non-voters to start voting.  In 2016, 43% of non-voters were whites without a college degree.  That's a huge potential source of support.  From what I see in a lot of reporting is that a lot of people felt that Trump would change the system (drain the swamp) and that he's seen as corrupt.  If you want to win elections, you either need to get the people who voted for you last time to vote for you again, or you need to find a new group of people to vote for you.  It looks like Trump has lost a lot of support from people that voted for him in 2016.  It may be that Biden is simply not as distasteful as Hillary Clinton to many voters.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on July 29, 2020, 03:17:52 PM
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 29, 2020, 03:35:18 PM
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!
Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative.


I don't think this is true, and most 'poll of polls' have been accurate, especially on a National level.  In 2016, the 'big miss' was a failure to recognize a growing divergence between whites with and without college degrees.  Including educational attainment when calculating projected vote share is important and is being included.  There's a measure of uncertainly in polls, and most people are very bad at recognizing uncertainty.  If a poll indicates a tied race (as a Monmouth poll of Adults in Georgia did), the uncertainty of +/-5% means that Trump winning by 5 or losing by 5 are all within the margin of error.  

Here's a Five Thirty Eight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) article about the accuracy of polls.

Here's a CNN article (https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/politics/2018-midterm-elections-good-year-polls/index.html) evaluating the accuracy of the 2018 mid-term polls.  

Polls are not perfect, and nothing is a substitute for actually having an election.  They still remain a useful (and largely accurate) tool used by all the candidates.


Edit - Here's a Pro Trump (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html) article on CNN talking about his strong support among so-called 'Obama/Trump' voters.  

In the article, the focus is on how 2/3 of these voters still ardently support Trump.  My take away is that 1/3 of these types of Trump voters have moved away from him - considering his narrow margin of victory in some of these states, it is a loss of support he can ill-afford.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 29, 2020, 03:41:56 PM
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on July 29, 2020, 03:49:43 PM
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Greetings!

Hey there, GeekyBugle! Oh no, no hubris on my part. Of course, I will be voting for certain. Everyone should. This election is a very crucial election. I would like to think that after all these riots, the Democrat mayors and governors cheering mobs on, cities burning, police departments being defunded, crime going way up, businesses being burned, and people being murdered in the street--the majority of Americans will have had enough of this bullshit, and vote to re-elect President Trump. Thus, I hope he wins in a landslide victory.

If Biden wins the election, this country is fucked.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on July 29, 2020, 03:53:52 PM
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I think the most likely outcome is an electoral college landslide for Trump.  But there are other outcomes that are certainly possible, and not just the 1% chance territory, either.  What this does to the popular vote, I've got no clue.  The agitation is going to produce some enthusiasm and some apathy, especially in states not viewed as close.  Hang onto your hats, it is a bumpy (or bumpier) ride from here on out.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on July 29, 2020, 11:48:25 PM
The latest stats on Biden's marxist anti-fracking energy plan are that it will cost us 19 million jobs, mostly in the swing states President Trump carried in 2016 (650k jobs in PA, 825k in WI and MI, several hundred thousand in OH, and the list goes on).

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.

2020 is 2016 turned up a notch because the Leftists have had four years to bake in their toxic TDS juices and can't even comprehend that most people don't hate as much as they do.

So they throw out fake polls where they say "Likely Voters", but weight it with just 23% Republican turnout and 50% Democrat turnout because the important thing isn't the poll's accuracy... it's to sell the narrative that Biden had it in the bag until President Trump stole the election... cue Mueller Investigation and Impeachment 2.0 because these psychopaths will do ANYTHING; lie, cheat, steal, destroy lives; whatever it takes to get the power they crave.

They'd rather be kings of a garbage dump where their will is law than be fellow citizens in a wealthy prosperous country where others are free to ignore them.

And I'll tell you this too... the Insane Left would NOT be pushing to keep everyone socially isolated, the riots, shutting down opposing voices online, and for national mail-in voting if they actually thought they were winning. If you're winning you don't rock the boat, you let things proceed as normal... you certainly don't throw society into chaos and then pray popular sentiment swings your way.

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars. The cognitive dissonance required to be a Leftist is phenomenal. You literally have to pretend not to know things... like Antifa/BLM being radical Marxist hate groups who have burned and destroyed more black businesses in 30 days than the KKK managed in 30 years.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 08:26:46 AM
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Oh, I'm sure Trump could lose. But it would require a bit more than half assed polls and dangerhairs screaming.

See, here's the kicker: most people just want stability. In some cases, even more than justice. If you don't make the case that shaking things up is absolutely necessary for justice, people will not cotton onto your message even if you're imitating Eric Andre screaming at a fence.

Biden is a ridiculously bad candidate. Supposedly his VP choice will be Kamala 'Roundheels' Harris, whose ascent in power was lubricated by her willingness to get plowed to get ahead. YEAH I WENT THERE, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Great picks, Dems: a guy whose psyche may be fragmenting in real time, with his running mate garnering no respect for anyone due to her cosplaying as the Lincoln Bedroom.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 10:26:10 AM
Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.


There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.  Nobody wants London's 1952 killer smog (https://today.tamu.edu/2016/11/14/researchers-solve-mystery-of-historic-1952-london-fog-and-current-chinese-haze/#:~:text=Visibility%20was%20reduced%20to%20only,than%20150%2C000%20had%20been%20hospitalized.).


Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars.


Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania) released a poll on Friday showing Biden with a 9 point lead in Michigan, a 13 point lead in Minnesota, and Pennsylvania by 11 points.  A month ago, a Fox poll showed Trump and Biden tied in Texas (Biden 45, Trump 44).  

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  

Polls make their methodology available for review.  A certain amount of variation is to be expected - not every sample is PERFECTLY created, but that's why running many different polls tends to give accurate data.  Likewise, tracking polls (polls repeated every month) are likely to identify trends - increase or decrease in support, even if they're not EXACTLY accurate.  Trump's problem with polls isn't that 'some are liars' - his problem with polls is that they are consistently painting a picture of a very narrow path to reelection.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 10:42:49 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355
There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.

True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on July 30, 2020, 11:14:38 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  


None of them because they are designed to shape thought, not report it.

...except maybe the internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns.
Given the 2016 election, I'm not sure that would even be accurate anymore.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:31:40 PM
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html)

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-presented-with-grim-internal-polling-showing-him-losing-to-biden/2020/04/29/33544208-8a4e-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html)

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.

Quote
Even Fox News, a loyal Trump ally that the president watches for hours inside the White House, interpreted his proposal as a sign the president is flailing.

"It is a fragrant and flagrant expression of his current weakness," Fox News politics editor Chris Stirewalt said during a Fox News broadcast Thursday morning. "A person who is in a strong position would never, never suggest anything like that. So Trump may be making a tactical error here by further telegraphing his weak position in the polls and his weak position for re-election."

Source (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142358
True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.

I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
Sorry for a triple post, but wanted to add specifically about Florida Polling.

Joe Biden's beating Trump in Florida -- where polls go to die (https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/07/30/joe-bidens-beating-trump-in-florida-where-polls-go-to-die/) - Tampa Bay Times

Quote

Steve Vancore, a veteran Democratic strategist in Florida, said people tend to misread polls by projecting the results forward to Election Day. and by failing to account for the campaigns' ability to react to the numbers by shifting strategy and winning over new supporters.

And multiple strategists and pollsters said in interviews that, while polls shouldn't be interpreted as predictors of the future, they are currently picking up voters' discontent in Florida and other battleground states with the president's ability to lead a nation in crisis.

"Right now, I don't think there's anything unusual about the polls. The economy is hurting, people are scared and the commander-in-chief isn't giving people what they want, so his numbers are going down," Vancore said. "But the campaigns see this data and start reacting to the data. That's what closes things down. Partisans tend to go back to the ticket."
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 01:52:46 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).

But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on July 30, 2020, 01:57:23 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142388
But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.

Yes.

Because it's not about promoting clean power. It's about eliminating cheap power to impoverish the rest of us while they live like kings.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 30, 2020, 02:22:08 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).


You can believe whatever you want, dropping our only energy source in the hopes that your dreams come true is asinine.

And furthermore, even if you managed to achieve clean and safe fusion... How do you plan to power planes and ocean transporters of goods? Energy density is against you, so far there's not a single battery that can begin to compete with fossil fuels in this department. Plus the time it takes to recharge them...

Energy density of fuels (https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density)

Energy density of batteries (https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density_of_storage_devices)

1 J = 0.00027777777777778 Wh

So the best batteries give you 150 Wh per kilo

Gasoline gives you 46 MJ per kilo or 12777.777777778 Wh per kilo.

The plane fuel gives you 44.65 MJ/kg

Electric planes are still a pipe dream (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_fuel)

Imagine now trying to move by sea 1.19 billion tones of cargo each year, with batteries? Ludicrous!

And powering your cars, buses, planes or ships with thorium reactors is also a pipe dream



Edited to add something about batteries just for the sake of it

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on July 30, 2020, 03:16:32 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142384
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html)

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-presented-with-grim-internal-polling-showing-him-losing-to-biden/2020/04/29/33544208-8a4e-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html)

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.



Source (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html)

I specifically said 'internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns"...
.
and if you really believe that campaigns with hundreds of millions aren't running polls that only the inner circle analyzes, then that just shows your political naiveté.

example:  statistical analysis on voter lists to pinpoint most likely voters....3 days with an 8 hour shift each....approx 50 calls per day per caller (Assuming a 10 minute survey)....say you hire a 100 people to do the calling...that is 15000 responses for about half a week...*

...or do you think that the $263 million already spent by the Biden campaign was for buttons, banners, and bumper stickers??



As far as the delay the election comment....Trump is the biggest troll out there, he tweets shit just to fire people up...He was doing crazy shit before he was even a reality star.

And believe me or not about the polling that is released being about shaping the outcome instead of predicting it...I don't really care

But something you might want to ask yourself:


When people are locked down for an extended period of time, they have to watch and read something....with all that extra time, do you suppose maybe there are more people checking out alternative news sources??
Whether the stories are accurate is irrelevant...it gets people thinking and asking questions...

For crazy libertarians like me, questioning authority isn't a problem, but it can be a problem for both the left and the right...

Which side of the Biden/Trump game do you think has more to lose right now if their base starts asking questions???  ;)



*note == the example numbers were just randomly chosen on the fly while posting...I did have to do telemarketing for a year or so in order to eat, so the call volume assessments are based on actual experience.*
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 04:21:50 PM
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-grip-gop-slipping).  

Quote
The once rock-solid grip that the president had on his party seems to be slipping. Talking with pollsters and strategists from both sides this week,  it's clear that Trump is suffering not just with Democrats and independents but also with GOP voters. They tell us of polling that shows Trump underwater in districts he carried easily in 2016. One GOP strategist told me that even in heavily Republican districts, Trump's job approval rating among Republicans has dropped 10-20 points. The KFF poll released last week found Trump's overall job approval rating among Republicans dropped 12 points between May and July. On handling coronavirus, the drop in GOP support was an even more dramatic 26 points.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FingerRod on July 30, 2020, 04:28:05 PM
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on July 30, 2020, 09:58:56 PM
Quote from: FingerRod;1142419
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.

Anecdotal. I have never voted. Never really cared. I don't follow politics closely enough to make an informed decision, and would be just randomly poking boxes like a pidgeon.
But after Trump, the Democrats have gone so far off the deep end. I have voted straight Red with a preference for Trump supporters on the ballot. just dropped off my state primaries last week, as a matter of fact.
I am simply hate voting against the Democrats at this stage. I once considered them the lesser of two evils. But they've managed to convince me they're the greater of two evils at this point in time.

I don't know what Trump's chances of re-election are. I don't trust any polls since 2016. But if I were to put a wager on it, I'd be willing to say Trump in a landslide. I think the average American is shit scared of the rioting and the Democrats trying to sweep it under the rug, and they want a candidate who's willing to send in the troops and clean house. Or at least, the candidate who says they will.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 31, 2020, 04:17:43 AM
I don't believe landslides are possible in such a divided America.

I do know that Trump will lose if sane people don't stand up and vote for him.
As with 2016, it''s all about voter turnout in key states.
If you know any American who doesn't want to live in communist shithole, get them to the polls because 2020 is the moment when America chooses between Freedom and Tyranny. If Biden wins, America is done. Say goodbye to prosperity.

Maybe the Silent Majority exists.  
Maybe they will get off their ass this year.
Who knows?

As for polls, let's keep two major factors in mind:
1) Biden's handlers haven't announced the real Democratic presidential candidate, oops, I mean his VP.
2) There have been ZERO presidential debates.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 31, 2020, 08:11:10 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142418
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-grip-gop-slipping).

Cook also believed Trump was going to get utterly pasted in 2016.

Forgive me if I fail to panic.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on July 31, 2020, 12:17:42 PM
I definitely wouldn't panic either. For a couple of reasons, the only polls even remotely worth listening to are aggregate polls, and even those are highly limited in their scope. Secondly, the silent majority definitely does exist, and the polls make no real attempt to find them. People where I live largely are ignored by polling, and what polling does occur, occurs in the metropolitan areas, therefore injecting a liberal bias by their very nature. People here often keep their political opinions to themselves, even going so far as to not even discuss who or what they voted for. Largely, this is the nature of rural conservatism. The only thing I would be concerned about is complacency, but I think the far left has made enough of a spectacle of themselves to ensure that everyone votes here simply from fear of encroaching Marxist beliefs.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 01, 2020, 10:43:26 PM
Quote from: Aglondir;1141744
We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.


Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on August 02, 2020, 01:57:21 AM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1142724
Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74)

Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 03, 2020, 08:28:42 AM
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.

Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on August 03, 2020, 05:38:36 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142928
Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.

That is a Win - Win for all of us.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 04, 2020, 04:01:53 PM
Every news site follows their own logic for how they rate the current projections for the Electoral College.  

NPR (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/897202359/2020-electoral-map-ratings-trump-slides-biden-advantage-expands-over-270-votes) moved 6 races toward the Democratic candidate.  They are now rating Colorado likely Dem (was Lean Dem), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida as Lean Dem (was Toss-up) and Georgia from Lean GOP to toss-up.  

Of those, Florida is the most likely to shift back.  Based on their electoral map, if Florida were to swing back to Trump, it would drop Biden down to 268 electoral votes - 2 shy of a victory.  While it appears that 'the rustbelt' has swung hard away from Trump (who no longer has the message of change), this does include projecting Biden winning states that Trump carried in 2016 (especially PA, MI, FL).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 04, 2020, 05:45:59 PM
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.


Be nice or I'll spread rumors there's oil in the Shire!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 05, 2020, 11:37:09 AM
Emerson (https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/july-national-poll-biden-maintains-lead-in-presidential-race-majority-support-nationwide-mask-mandate-in-public-spaces) has released one of the most favorable polls for Trump in the last several weeks, showing him with 47% of the vote among Likely Voters; most other polls show him in the low 40s.  

It's an interesting poll for a variety of reasons.  Based on their poll of a month ago, the margins remain the same, but there is a much smaller pool of undecided voters (10% undecided in June, only 4% now).  Trump won late-deciding voters by a significant margin (in the lead up to the election 538 had several articles about how there was significantly more uncertainty about the election than was reported in the media, in large part because there were enough undecided voters to change the result).  If the number of undecided voters gets much smaller, campaigns will have to 'poach voters' who have already decided on their preferred candidate to achieve their desired state-level results.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 05, 2020, 02:05:58 PM
Five Thirty Eight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/) released an interesting article on the polling now versus 2016. This was published after my last post, but reiterates something I had said.

Quote

Clinton led in most national polls, but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s. Biden's share has been hovering around 50 percent. As a result, some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced, in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven't made up their minds and because signs point to fewer third-party voters than in 2016. Combined, Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support, on average, in national polls in early August 2016. By comparison, Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on August 05, 2020, 03:14:38 PM
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 05, 2020, 03:17:20 PM
Quote from: KingCheops;1143460
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.

To the old adage: "There are three kinds of falsehoods - lies, damned lies, and statistics" we can add a fourth kind of falsehood: "polls".
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 05, 2020, 03:26:49 PM
Biden will NOT be traveling to Wisconsin to accept his party's nomination (https://www.wisn.com/article/reports-joe-biden-will-not-come-to-milwaukee-for-dnc/33522984#).

Presumably because they can't get him through twenty minutes of exposure without him groping a woman, drooling, or shitting into his Depends.

Wonder who the Veep nomination will be?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 05, 2020, 03:31:49 PM
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 05, 2020, 06:41:18 PM
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 11, 2020, 05:28:46 PM
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/approve-or-not-trump-setting-unfavorable-downballot-conditions) was worth a read.

Quote
Either way, Republicans are getting clobbered with independents. The assessments end up in the same place. The only differences are in how to read the problem. One GOP campaign consultant suggested that the percentage of voters not just disapproving, but strongly disapproving of Trump's overall performance is the best indicator--that "somewhat disapproving" left slight ground for someone to still come down his way. National polls show roughly 50 percent strongly disapprove of the president's performance, with somewhat disapproving in the mid-single digits. Of course, winning all of the somewhat-disapproving voters would be a bit unrealistic.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Doc Sammy on August 11, 2020, 06:49:03 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144384
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/approve-or-not-trump-setting-unfavorable-downballot-conditions) was worth a read.

The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on August 11, 2020, 07:22:25 PM
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I have to wonder if this announcement strengthens Kanye's chances.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 12, 2020, 08:07:10 AM
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on August 12, 2020, 08:47:50 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144384
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

And I still have not stopped laughing! This is some of the best political comedy out there!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 01:53:42 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1144498
I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!


The reason they went "Joe & The Ho" was because she was the best compromise they could do.
Everybody knows that the VP is their choice for the top spot, that was part of why they took so long to decide.
Joe painted them into a corner and they had to use a minority woman.
She was the 'best' option in the field.

They can't go with Bass (Increase the hard left vote) because she is too socialist and moderates are already running scared.  The riots are costing them too much.

Rice is out because she is uniparty establishment.  She would cost them more of the hard left than Harris and her attachment to the previous admin is dangerous for them.  (Suppose DJT says 'Well since we can't prosecute, here is a bunch of declassified info on the Russia investigation that no longer has to be kept hidden due to possible criminal proceedings.")

That really just leaves Harris, who will cost some of the hard left and some of the black vote, but probably less overall than the other two.

...plus it will be harder to target her with the whole casting couch thing given Trrump's history and the fact that Pence is probably not mean enough to go that route.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 12, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144542
The reason they went "Joe & The Ho" was because she was the best compromise they could do.
Everybody knows that the VP is their choice for the top spot, that was part of why they took so long to decide.
Joe painted them into a corner and they had to use a minority woman.
She was the 'best' option in the field.

They can't go with Bass (Increase the hard left vote) because she is too socialist and moderates are already running scared.  The riots are costing them too much.

Rice is out because she is uniparty establishment.  She would cost them more of the hard left than Harris and her attachment to the previous admin is dangerous for them.  (Suppose DJT says 'Well since we can't prosecute, here is a bunch of declassified info on the Russia investigation that no longer has to be kept hidden due to possible criminal proceedings.")

That really just leaves Harris, who will cost some of the hard left and some of the black vote, but probably less overall than the other two.

...plus it will be harder to target her with the whole casting couch thing given Trump's history and the fact that Pence is probably not mean enough to go that route.

They could also be reading their internal polls and cutting their losses early.  Partially because a lot of people in the party don't like her, but also because when you are dealing with a long shot, might as well go for a full ticket full of baggage to rub everyone's nose in it if the long shot pays off.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 12, 2020, 04:03:45 PM
I love to see people call Kamala African-American when she's of Indian-Jamaican descent.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 05:29:10 PM
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1144559
They could also be reading their internal polls and cutting their losses early.  Partially because a lot of people in the party don't like her, but also because when you are dealing with a long shot, might as well go for a full ticket full of baggage to rub everyone's nose in it if the long shot pays off.

Tim Poole has made similar statements, although more along the lines of being sacrificial goats while they prepare for 2024.

I really hope that is not the case.  If their polls are actually that bad, then I'm worried about where the situation ends.

If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on August 12, 2020, 07:54:16 PM
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144583
If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.

One thing you have to understand about critical theory is that there is no bottom to it. There is no point where an adherent will stop and say "THIS is beyond the pale, it would be wrong." There is only "can we get away with doing it."

Once you accept that the people in charge are literally and criminally insane and warped by utter rage at all those who voted against their ascension to a permanent aristocratic class, that they've been indoctrinating an entire generation to be their useful dupes and that individual lives simply do not matter to them except as means to political power you'll find you can accurately predict their actions with depressing consistency.

They are absolutely setting up to burn the country down in a self-immolating "if I can't have it, no one will" end game. It's not the first choice, but for the paymasters egging these nuts on who seek a globalist world order, it's an acceptable alternative.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 12, 2020, 09:32:14 PM
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144583
Tim Poole has made similar statements, although more along the lines of being sacrificial goats while they prepare for 2024.

I really hope that is not the case.  If their polls are actually that bad, then I'm worried about where the situation ends.

If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.

Well, they still think the House is in the bag and that the Senates is in play.  Giving the amount of cheating they have planned and the complete cluelessness (when not outright traitors--e.g. Mitt Romney, spit!) of the GOP establishment, they may very well be correct. In some ways, they'd rather win those, hamstring Trump's second term, and generally cause trouble.  I think the more likely outcome is moderate GOP gains in the House offset by some minor losses, which falls 5 to 10 short of flipping it.  The Senate is probably a straight wash, though could net the Dems +1 if McSally can't get her act together or Kelly stops shooting himself in the foot.  OTOH, all the leftist psychosis could cause a handful of pleasant surprises the other way, too.

Of course, if I'm right in those outcomes, then 2022 will be a rare blood-bath for off-year opposition party in the House and Senate.  The net GOP won't change much in 2020, but we are getting some weasels replaced with decent candidates.  That will help roast them for their Pelosi tricks (assuming she makes it that long).  The 2022 Senate map is horrible for the Dems.  Not to mention, the 2020 Census, even with all the Dem governor/legislature/courts tricks is going to be brutal to their House line up and their electoral prospects in 2024.  

Realignments are never pretty.  We are clearly out of the ramp up phase and into the heart of it.  There will be a lot of political scalps gathered before we are done.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 10:03:51 PM
Quote from: Chris24601;1144611

They are absolutely setting up to burn the country down in a self-immolating "if I can't have it, no one will" end game. It's not the first choice, but for the paymasters egging these nuts on who seek a globalist world order, it's an acceptable alternative.


Yeah, I get the insanity of it.  I just don't think they truly grasp what crossing the line between 'self-defense' and 'war' actually means.  That's what bothers me...
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on August 13, 2020, 12:09:05 AM
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144636
Yeah, I get the insanity of it.  I just don't think they truly grasp what crossing the line between 'self-defense' and 'war' actually means.  That's what bothers me...

Oh, the people actually calling the shots (and I don't mean Chuck and Nancy) know EXACTLY what it means and a broken and divided America is exactly in their best interests.

In 2016 the "managed decline" of the United States as a world power under Hillary (and the rise of a Chinese/Globalist money men hegemony with its slave labor and fixed outcomes to replace it) was the plan.

Now they're hoping for an American torn apart by a Civil War being too weakened to oppose their moves to likely seize Taiwan and its assets, bully India and South Korea, re-establish planned the Belt and Road exploitation of the third world and Chinese 5G surveillance state dream, end the sanctions on Iran (so many kickbacks) and finish the job of exporting American jobs and resources to their Chinese slave labor camps.

All in the name of endless greed and thirst for power by people who fashion themselves Masters of the Universe and wish to control everyone's lives from cradle to grave because they believe we're too stupid to make our decisions and that they deserve all the fruits of others' labors because they'll use them more effectively than we could... even if that means we starve because we're not useful for their plans.

There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.

The Democrat and 90% of the elected representatives of the Republican party are just their bought-off flunkies directed how to vote by K-Street lobbyists on legislation written by multi-national corporate lawyers.

This didn't happen overnight... it's been the work of decades (100 years with the last serious pushback before the people elected President Trump being three decades prior) and it will take decades to fully reverse. President Trump has bought us some time and, if re-elected, can lay a strong foundation, but the real battle will be in 2024 when the people will have to push back against the Establishment Republican pick and elect another America First populist fighter to continue the restoration.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 13, 2020, 12:21:25 AM
Greetings!

There can never be a one world Globalist government as long as there is a strong, unified and free America.

For a Globalist government to succeed, America must be disunited, weak, and broke.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: blackstone on August 13, 2020, 08:01:49 AM
Quote from: Chris24601;1144648
Oh, the people actually calling the shots (and I don't mean Chuck and Nancy) know EXACTLY what it means and a broken and divided America is exactly in their best interests.

In 2016 the "managed decline" of the United States as a world power under Hillary (and the rise of a Chinese/Globalist money men hegemony with its slave labor and fixed outcomes to replace it) was the plan.

Now they're hoping for an American torn apart by a Civil War being too weakened to oppose their moves to likely seize Taiwan and its assets, bully India and South Korea, re-establish planned the Belt and Road exploitation of the third world and Chinese 5G surveillance state dream, end the sanctions on Iran (so many kickbacks) and finish the job of exporting American jobs and resources to their Chinese slave labor camps.

All in the name of endless greed and thirst for power by people who fashion themselves Masters of the Universe and wish to control everyone's lives from cradle to grave because they believe we're too stupid to make our decisions and that they deserve all the fruits of others' labors because they'll use them more effectively than we could... even if that means we starve because we're not useful for their plans.

There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.

The Democrat and 90% of the elected representatives of the Republican party are just their bought-off flunkies directed how to vote by K-Street lobbyists on legislation written by multi-national corporate lawyers.

This didn't happen overnight... it's been the work of decades (100 years with the last serious pushback before the people elected President Trump being three decades prior) and it will take decades to fully reverse. President Trump has bought us some time and, if re-elected, can lay a strong foundation, but the real battle will be in 2024 when the people will have to push back against the Establishment Republican pick and elect another America First populist fighter to continue the restoration.

^^^THIS 100%^^^

I can't stress how accurate the above statement is. I've made the case in several threads in the past that the PRC for the past 25 years have slowly built up their military and economic stature. A few known facts:

- build up of economic base: building cheap products for the West and using slave labor. Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

- natural resources: Spratley Islands are a hotly contested area in SE Asia. there just a bunch of coral rocks jutting out of the water...with a shit load of OIL sitting right under it. they didn't build a military base on a piece of shit atoll there for nothing. The PRC have bought up mineral rights in Africa for strategic metals and minerals (which includes oil). In return, said African nations get cheap goods, which includes some military equipment and rights to use ports.

-Military: Speaking of ports: the PRC Navy isn't just going to have two carriers for shits and giggles, along with a rather impressive submarine fleet (79 active vs. 68 active for the USN). History tells us that any great power has a large navy to project power over the horizon. Plus they've slowly modernized their Army and Air Force. Don't kid yourself, all of this is for keeping their eye of the prize: Taiwan. Hell, the Commandant the the Marine Corps has acknowledged this recently: the USMC is removing all of it's armor units and going back to being a more mobile amphibious force, just in case we have to deal with an aggressive PRC in the Pacific.

-diplomatic relations: since the end of Cold War I (we're now in Cold War II: don't kid yourself), the PRC have done quite a bit to improve relations with Russia. With that being said, since they've had better relations, the pressure between the two has lessened considerably. this allows both nations to redirect their attentions elsewhere, such as Russia showing new interest in reestablishing old military bases in the Arctic and performing old school overflights near Alaska and our fleet. Relations with India have always been stressful, and we're talking centuries old bad blood between the two. Today, it's no different. To counter this, The USA have made much better relations with India, which IMO the should have a long time ago, and rightly so. India is the world's largest democracy population-wise. they also have a very robust military (you'd have one to if the PRC was right on your fucking doorstep), and we've had a few joint fleet exercises with them. Also, Japan have been making several moves to be more proactive in regards to the PRC: they've enacted a few laws that allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to react more freely when it comes to military aggression from the PRC and North Korea...

-North Korea: the literal wild card. if the feces hits the rotating blade, it's because the North Koreans have started some shit, and the PRC will use it as an excuse to make moves throughout SE Asia. They hope that the DPRK will bear the brunt of the blow, while the PRC gets the spoils with little effort or recourse. In other words: North Korea is the PRC's meat shield when a war starts.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 13, 2020, 03:02:47 PM
Quote from: blackstone;1144670
Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

They don't hold that much. China holds about $1.1 trillion in US debt, which is less than 5% of the total. If push came to shove, the Federal Reserve would just print that much in cash, and give it to the Chinese. It's not a tool of control.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign-holders-of-us-debt-2020
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 13, 2020, 03:21:28 PM
Quote from: blackstone;1144670
^^^THIS 100%^^^

I can't stress how accurate the above statement is. I've made the case in several threads in the past that the PRC for the past 25 years have slowly built up their military and economic stature. A few known facts:

- build up of economic base: building cheap products for the West and using slave labor. Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

- natural resources: Spratley Islands are a hotly contested area in SE Asia. there just a bunch of coral rocks jutting out of the water...with a shit load of OIL sitting right under it. they didn't build a military base on a piece of shit atoll there for nothing. The PRC have bought up mineral rights in Africa for strategic metals and minerals (which includes oil). In return, said African nations get cheap goods, which includes some military equipment and rights to use ports.

-Military: Speaking of ports: the PRC Navy isn't just going to have two carriers for shits and giggles, along with a rather impressive submarine fleet (79 active vs. 68 active for the USN). History tells us that any great power has a large navy to project power over the horizon. Plus they've slowly modernized their Army and Air Force. Don't kid yourself, all of this is for keeping their eye of the prize: Taiwan. Hell, the Commandant the the Marine Corps has acknowledged this recently: the USMC is removing all of it's armor units and going back to being a more mobile amphibious force, just in case we have to deal with an aggressive PRC in the Pacific.

-diplomatic relations: since the end of Cold War I (we're now in Cold War II: don't kid yourself), the PRC have done quite a bit to improve relations with Russia. With that being said, since they've had better relations, the pressure between the two has lessened considerably. this allows both nations to redirect their attentions elsewhere, such as Russia showing new interest in reestablishing old military bases in the Arctic and performing old school overflights near Alaska and our fleet. Relations with India have always been stressful, and we're talking centuries old bad blood between the two. Today, it's no different. To counter this, The USA have made much better relations with India, which IMO the should have a long time ago, and rightly so. India is the world's largest democracy population-wise. they also have a very robust military (you'd have one to if the PRC was right on your fucking doorstep), and we've had a few joint fleet exercises with them. Also, Japan have been making several moves to be more proactive in regards to the PRC: they've enacted a few laws that allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to react more freely when it comes to military aggression from the PRC and North Korea...

-North Korea: the literal wild card. if the feces hits the rotating blade, it's because the North Koreans have started some shit, and the PRC will use it as an excuse to make moves throughout SE Asia. They hope that the DPRK will bear the brunt of the blow, while the PRC gets the spoils with little effort or recourse. In other words: North Korea is the PRC's meat shield when a war starts.

China is one of the major players, no doubt. But don't become myopic - the threat to the U.S. is global, and consists of a variety of players of differing scope, all with a common cause - opposing the U.S.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 13, 2020, 10:05:49 PM
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 13, 2020, 10:52:43 PM
Maybe they all know the same person.  Six degrees of separation and all that...  

Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).

Anecdotally, I know a number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 that don't plan to do so in 2020.  All of the appeal of an 'outsider who can shake things up' doesn't sound as important today.  Now, maybe they'll reverse course (but I live in Tennessee, and their vote doesn't REALLY matter except for knowing how much Biden beat Trump in the popular vote) with concerns about Democrats gaining control of the House, Senate and White House.  But Biden isn't as scary as Clinton to them.  

What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 13, 2020, 11:20:13 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798
Maybe they all know the same person.  Six degrees of separation and all that...  

Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).

Anecdotally, I know a number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 that don't plan to do so in 2020.  All of the appeal of an 'outsider who can shake things up' doesn't sound as important today.  Now, maybe they'll reverse course (but I live in Tennessee, and their vote doesn't REALLY matter except for knowing how much Biden beat Trump in the popular vote) with concerns about Democrats gaining control of the House, Senate and White House.  But Biden isn't as scary as Clinton to them.  

What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.

Or maybe they are telling you they will not vote for the god emperor so you stop pestering them?

Yeah, it's so likely they all know the same people...

Biden is worst than Clinton, he'll just step aside and let Harris rule, and she's a douche canoe.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 13, 2020, 11:24:32 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798


What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.


Shouldn't be that surprising.  Of the 4, she has been the biggest mercenary opportunist during her political career.  That means everyone can find a bunch of things which she has done that they disagree with.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 13, 2020, 11:35:13 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798
Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).
That article misses the point. The argument I've seen is that people will say one thing to a pollster, and then go and vote a different way. So the idea that Republican voters are hiding out from pollsters is a strawman. And comparing live and phone polling may not be a reliable indicator anymore, because everyone knows everything is recorded and tracked, i.e. people worrying they'll end up on a "list".

And modeling was a bigger problem in 2016 than the polls.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 13, 2020, 11:35:53 PM
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1144803
Or maybe they are telling you they will not vote for the god emperor so you stop pestering them?

Yeah, it's so likely they all know the same people...

Biden is worst than Clinton, he'll just step aside and let Harris rule, and she's a douche canoe.


Greetings!

Well, besides arming the fuck up with lots of weapons, ammunition, and other gear, I have also contributed money to the God Emperor's campaign. I also plan to attend more patriot rallies, and I always encourage fellow citizens I meet to support the God Emperor, and get armed and ready! I also intend to vote *in person*--like I have done all of my life.

Everywhere I go, from the grocery store, my church, the auto shop, the gun store, the barber shop--I meet more and more people that support the God Emperor!:D

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 14, 2020, 04:31:25 AM
I am fascinated about what happened between August 1st when Politico "accidentally" leaked their story about Horizontal Harris being VP (with a quote from the Biden campaign) and August 10th when they officially announced. What was really happening for those 9 days?  


Quote from: Chris24601;1144648
There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.


Exactly. But we're so undermined after decades of indoctrination that most of the country won't even mind being enslaved as long as they keep their iPhones.


Quote from: SHARK;1144649
There can never be a one world Globalist government as long as there is a strong, unified and free America.

For a Globalist government to succeed, America must be disunited, weak, and broke.


That second sentence described America 2020 quite accurately.


Quote from: SHARK;1144807
Everywhere I go, from the grocery store, my church, the auto shop, the gun store, the barber shop--I meet more and more people that support the God Emperor!:D


But you're not in a swing state. Biden isn't going to spend a dime in Idaho.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 16, 2020, 02:01:59 AM
Greetings!

An Australian news organization interviews two black Americans on recent polling, riots, and more Americans--turning against BLM. The black American woman, Shameka Michelle, engaged with a white BLM protestor, and schooled him severely on video.:D

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 16, 2020, 05:37:58 AM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1144498
I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!

I think they chose her because they're so confident Biden will win that they don't need a VP who'll deliver any states. She's basically the ideal rootless neo-Liberal functionary.She has no natural base of support that  a politician might rely upon if he wanted to go against the wishes of the financial interests, and likewise there's no constituency whose interests she might be tempted to represent due to natural human and community ties. She's nothing but an empty, ambitious social climber, the perfect tool.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 16, 2020, 12:55:04 PM
Quote from: Mjollnir;1145076
I think they chose her because they're so confident Biden will win that they don't need a VP who'll deliver any states.

There hasn't been a VP who delivered a state since arguably Kennedy's selection of LBJ.  Fact Check (https://www.factcheck.org/2008/07/do-vp-candidates-win-states/)

More often a VP is seen as a way to 'balance' a ticket.  A youthful presidential candidate (like George W or Barrack) often chooses an experienced elder statesman (like Cheney or Biden), while an older candidate often chooses someone youthful (like McCain choosing Palin).  

Biden was looking for a VP candidate that would have broad appeal and bring some energy to the ticket.  For a lot of people, a woman, and specifically a black woman, seemed to be important criteria to confirm that the Democratic party is committed to policies that are important to their most committed constituency (as opposed to taking the support of blacks for granted).  

There are a lot of reasons why under normal circumstances, Biden might be confident - things like the incumbent has NEVER won an election when 2nd Quarter GDP dropped like it did this year - but this is not going to be a normal election.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 16, 2020, 01:51:27 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145103
There are a lot of reasons why under normal circumstances, Biden might be confident - things like the incumbent has NEVER won an election when 2nd Quarter GDP dropped like it did this year - but this is not going to be a normal election.

That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump. I think most people realize that. But then, there's a lot of derranged anti-Trumpers who blame him for everything and anything in an attempt to fight back against the bad orange man.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 16, 2020, 05:24:00 PM
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145112
That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump. I think most people realize that. But then, there's a lot of derranged anti-Trumpers who blame him for everything and anything in an attempt to fight back against the bad orange man.

Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 16, 2020, 06:13:38 PM
Greetings!

"Russian Bounties." That's all bullshit being pushed by the Democrats in yet *again* another bowl of bullshit covered in nothingburger steak sauce. US Intelligence officials have reported that there wasn't anything worthwhile to the story--which has been known to US Intelligence for a long time.

Just more anti-Trump nonsense by the Democrats.

The UN is a useless, pathetic organization full of weak, sniveling cowards, and most of which love opposing a strong America on a regular basis. So, fuck what the UN thinks.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 16, 2020, 06:45:15 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

I don't. Nancy Pelosi notoriously ripped up Trumps speech on the Covid issue, and Democrats and the media were claiming Covid was not a serious threat in February. They came around when the death toll started to mount. The whole of the US government and the individual states and the media have to take their share of the responsibility.

Quote
His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

Yes. And Obama drone bombed civilians. This is the kind of usual rhetoric around leaders that fades into the background noise of partisan politics.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 16, 2020, 07:19:36 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).

He left the local decision-making to the local executives who knew their individual situations better and offered federal support if they needed it.  His national response was to shutdown travel from China where the virus came from. My memory is failing me on whether he caught political flak for that decision or not.  I can't seem to recall what the WHO and China had to say about the virus either.  Could you please remind me?

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

Never mind.  I didn't realize you were running for the resident Neocon position here at the RPGsite.  I withdraw my questions since I don't expect an honest answer.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 16, 2020, 08:54:52 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Can you please explain to me what interest I have in advancing "American" neo-Liberal hegemony across the world? To be totally honest, I can't think of many foreign countries I hate enough to wish "American" influence on.

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

I've gotta admit, the "bundle of sticks" is a good metaphor.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 16, 2020, 10:46:31 PM
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145112
That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump.

Don't buy into the attempts at displacement. The economy didn't tank because of a natural disaster, it tanked because of government-inflicted sanctions. Without the shutdowns, the economic effects would have been much milder.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 16, 2020, 11:48:47 PM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.


Sounding very fascist there... You might want to rethink your positions you imperialist Yankee commie.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 17, 2020, 12:23:15 AM
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

I see what you did there. (https://www.britannica.com/topic/fasces) (In case anyone missed it.)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 17, 2020, 12:48:02 AM
As a bundle-of-sticks enthusiast I unequivocally disavow any and all forms of Yankee Imperialism.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 17, 2020, 04:25:20 PM
God, the post office conspiracy theories make it seem like the Democrats are so sure Trump is going to win, that they're already setting up their excuses as to how Trump "cheated".
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 17, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145292
God, the post office conspiracy theories make it seem like the Democrats are so sure Trump is going to win, that they're already setting up their excuses as to how Trump "cheated".

Yes. Yes they are.

Their methods of cheating have been shut down, so they are projecting in order to set the stage to reject the results.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 18, 2020, 03:35:54 AM
The Dems cheating!? Why I never! :rolleyes:

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 10:15:26 AM
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1145336
The Dems cheating!? Why I never! :rolleyes:

Poole makes a decent point I haven't seen elsewhere: A major postal union endorsed Biden on the 14th. That's a pretty serious conflict of interest.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 18, 2020, 12:08:47 PM
Quote from: Pat;1145364
Poole makes a decent point I haven't seen elsewhere: A major postal union endorsed Biden on the 14th. That's a pretty serious conflict of interest.

Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 12:15:12 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145383
Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).
That was the main thrust of Pool's video, but it's been covered elsewhere. That's why I pointed out the one thing that seemed new to me.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 18, 2020, 12:16:25 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145383
Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).


And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 18, 2020, 02:00:07 PM
Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).

Well now.

If this works... and there is a LOT hanging on that 'if' ... it's going to change things dramatically.

I don't believe in miracles or silver bullets, but let's see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hair one more time.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 18, 2020, 02:16:32 PM
Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).

First of all, the blog claims "Hey this was filed in Feb. of 2019" when the image itself says "Filed: Feb 7, 2020". While I haven't fully read the patent, I am very suspicious of suddenly rolling out a brand-new blockchain-based system. Any online verification system seems likely to have potential for social/physical hacking even if it is cryptographically secure. Here's a CryptoNews article on the patent and the patent itself:

https://cryptonews.com/news/us-postal-service-bets-on-ethereum-blockchain-in-patented-vo-7456.htm
https://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.aiw?PageNum=0&docid=20200258338&IDKey=7A4F4EA40D1F

Personally, I would favor law enforcement as the first priority. All agencies with jurisdiction should conduct investigations and attempt sting operations. This won't catch all of the fraud, but it has the advantage of sending fraudsters to jail rather than leaving them free to try other means of swaying elections. More importantly, they could turn over evidence of corrupt politicians backing them.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 02:17:11 PM
I'm laughing inside at the idea that the government is technologically adept enough to implement a blockchain voter ID system before November.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 18, 2020, 02:47:37 PM
Quote from: Pat;1145404
I'm laughing inside at the idea that the government is technologically adept enough to implement a blockchain voter ID system before November.

The government especially, but I don't think anyone can implement any massive changes to the voting system within the next few months. Not mail in voting (unless the state already has it in place) much less some crypto black box bitchain system that few people really understand and trust with their vote.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 18, 2020, 06:10:29 PM
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145407
The government especially, but I don't think anyone can implement any massive changes to the voting system within the next few months. Not mail in voting (unless the state already has it in place) much less some crypto black box bitchain system that few people really understand and trust with their vote.

All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 18, 2020, 06:19:46 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Yes. And all they have to do is request an absentee ballot just like Trump has stated numerous times...

so please tell us what Orange Man Bad is actually suppressing?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on August 18, 2020, 06:31:06 PM
Quote from: moonsweeper;1145434
so please tell us what Orange Man Bad is actually suppressing?

The ability to harvest an additional 60M ballots so that Biden has a chance in hell of winning?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 18, 2020, 06:33:54 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Do you think they have the infrastructure set up to handle a massive shift to mail in voting within a few months? Considering the USPS has been downsizing for years, I serously doubt it.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on August 18, 2020, 07:10:46 PM
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Alathon on August 18, 2020, 09:04:19 PM
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL

I'm willing to give up the vote, or accept some real risks for it, in return for denying authority to the TV watchers and antenna-heads.  These fuckers couldn't run a lemonade stand and have no loyalty to anything.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 18, 2020, 09:49:36 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Absentee voting is not designed to handle the volume of a full election.  Anyone that knows anything about the process first hand can tell you that.  It will break down on at least two fronts:  The process of getting the request of the ballot and mailing it out timely already has immense problems.  Solve that, and you'll overwhelm the receipt.  That's not even counting the fraud problems.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on August 19, 2020, 12:42:18 AM
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.


As tempting as this sounds and as often as it has crossed my mind, how do we implement this IRL? I'm not sure that sticking someone's hand inside a pain-box while holding a poisoned needle to their neck ready to pinch them if they take their hand out accurately determines who's human (plus it would probably be considered a human rights violation). And I'm not sure high IQ is necessarily an indication that someone won't be an idiot about certain things or have serious lapses in judgement or critical thinking (e.g. Richard Dawkins on Brexit), so I don't think an IQ test would work either.

We need a way test people's critical thinking faculties that can't be abused by ideologues or elite cliques with an agenda.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 19, 2020, 07:56:07 AM
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL


Quote from: Alathon;1145455
I'm willing to give up the vote, or accept some real risks for it, in return for denying authority to the TV watchers and antenna-heads.  These fuckers couldn't run a lemonade stand and have no loyalty to anything.


Quote from: VisionStorm;1145471
As tempting as this sounds and as often as it has crossed my mind, how do we implement this IRL? I'm not sure that sticking someone's hand inside a pain-box while holding a poisoned needle to their neck ready to pinch them if they take their hand out accurately determines who's human (plus it would probably be considered a human rights violation). And I'm not sure high IQ is necessarily an indication that someone won't be an idiot about certain things or have serious lapses in judgement or critical thinking (e.g. Richard Dawkins on Brexit), so I don't think an IQ test would work either.

We need a way test people's critical thinking faculties that can't be abused by ideologues or elite cliques with an agenda.

A simpler method is this: you only get to vote in federal elections if you paid in one penny more in taxes than you received in subsidies or federal assistance.

In other words, you have to have skin in the game.

(Yes, I know, we still need to deal with things like corporate subsidies and crap like that. But this is a good start point.)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 12:55:13 PM
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1145460
Absentee voting is not designed to handle the volume of a full election.  Anyone that knows anything about the process first hand can tell you that.  It will break down on at least two fronts:  The process of getting the request of the ballot and mailing it out timely already has immense problems.  Solve that, and you'll overwhelm the receipt.  That's not even counting the fraud problems.
Yes, everything I've seen suggests scaling up from absentee voting (small percentage of the population) to universal mail-in voting is beyond the capability of the states who don't already have the infrastructure in place. The antiquated systems just can't handle it, or scale up that quickly. Contrary to the media narrative, the Post Office is not a bottleneck. Even if everyone in the country votes, it only amounts to a 1-2% increase in mail volume, which the Postmaster (a Trump appointee) and both postal unions (both have endorsed Biden) have said is no problem. Though it's worth noting there are significant delays delivering mail right now, and the deadlines for mailed-on ballots aren't based on postmark, but on the date the mail arrives.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 19, 2020, 05:55:36 PM
Quote from: Pat;1145509
Yes, everything I've seen suggests scaling up from absentee voting (small percentage of the population) to universal mail-in voting is beyond the capability of the states who don't already have the infrastructure in place.

The percentage varies widely from state to state because of differing laws. For many states, the percentage isn't that small. I would agree that some states will have trouble scaling up. But a lot of states already have a large percentage of votes cast either early or vote-by-mail -- not just blue states like California and Oregon, but also red states like Arizona and Utah.

https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/17/eavs-deep-dive-early-absentee-and-mail-voting-data-statutory-overview

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 19, 2020, 06:06:25 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145551
The percentage varies widely from state to state because of differing laws. For many states, the percentage isn't that small. I would agree that some states will have trouble scaling up. But a lot of states already have a large percentage of votes cast either early or vote-by-mail -- not just blue states like California and Oregon, but also red states like Arizona and Utah.

https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/17/eavs-deep-dive-early-absentee-and-mail-voting-data-statutory-overview

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/

Absentee ballots =/= vote by mail.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 08:21:01 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145551

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/

A majority of people already voting by mail means Arizona has extensive infrastructure in place, and they've revised the system to make it more efficient since the 2018 election, so it sounds like they have an up to date and relatively robust system.

I really doubt that's the norm. I'd like to see a good survey of the mail-in voting capabilities of all 51 states and district. Many voting systems around the country are old, brittle, and probably can't scale up quickly without massive failures. Three months before a Presidential election isn't a good time to experiment with the untested and untried.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 19, 2020, 08:39:06 PM
Quote from: Pat;1145578
A majority of people already voting by mail means Arizona has extensive infrastructure in place, and they've revised the system to make it more efficient since the 2018 election, so it sounds like they have an up to date and relatively robust system.

I really doubt that's the norm. I'd like to see a good survey of the mail-in voting capabilities of all 51 states and district. Many voting systems around the country are old, brittle, and probably can't scale up quickly without massive failures. Three months before a Presidential election isn't a good time to experiment with the untested and untried.
Vote by mail has been expanding a lot over the past two decades. Arizona might not be perfectly average among the 50 states, but it's not the cutting edge either. The cutting edge would be the five states like Utah and Oregon which already have entirely vote-by-mail. Here's an overview of the current status of vote-by-mail:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/11/us/politics/vote-by-mail-us-states.html

I agree that we shouldn't be rolling out untested and untried systems. I'm only talking about scaling up existing tested systems that already handle millions of voters. Opposing the untested and untried was exactly why I objected to the suggestion linked recently by RandyB and Ghostmaker that Trump should mandate by executive order the newly patented verification system, for example.

Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145401
Well now.

If this works... and there is a LOT hanging on that 'if' ... it's going to change things dramatically.

I don't believe in miracles or silver bullets, but let's see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hair one more time.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 09:48:07 PM
Quote from: jhkim;1145589
Vote by mail has been expanding a lot over the past two decades. Arizona might not be perfectly average among the 50 states, but it's not the cutting edge either. The cutting edge would be the five states like Utah and Oregon which already have entirely vote-by-mail. Here's an overview of the current status of vote-by-mail:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/11/us/politics/vote-by-mail-us-states.html
Their interactive map lists PA as "absentee voting allowed for all". But they literally just passed that law, and the Post Office came out and told them their plan wouldn't work:
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-mail-voting-deadlines-post-office-lawsuit-20200813.html
So the maps is useless as a indicator of actual capability. It's just a list of the rules, including any half-assed post-sars2 statutory changes.

Quote from: jhkim;1145589
I agree that we shouldn't be rolling out untested and untried systems. I'm only talking about scaling up existing tested systems that already handle millions of voters.
Scaling up isn't automatic, either. Systems that are inflexible, out of date, or near capacity may have no real extra capacity. That's something that requires a state-by-state assessment, and not blanket generalizations.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on August 21, 2020, 11:19:55 PM
I've lived in vote by mail states. The only thing preventing fraud is a sense of honor.  There were elections where I received multiple ballots in the mail for people who'd lived at that address in the last few years. Apartments, especially.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 22, 2020, 09:45:20 PM
Tell me more about how safe and secure mail in voting is, comrades.
 (https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/20/judge-new-election-paterson-new-jersey-mail-in-voting-fraud/)
Because this doesn't exactly fill me with boundless confidence.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
As of August 4th, New York still hadn't counted all the votes (https://nypost.com/2020/08/04/judge-orders-new-york-state-to-count-invalidated-mail-in-ballots/) from the June primary.

Was that because Sanders actually beat Dementia JoJo in New York?

Or was it because Trump did too well in areas assumed locked down for Biden?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 09:52:08 PM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1146053
Because this doesn't exactly fill me with boundless confidence.

I'm filled with boundless confidence that mail in voting is voter fraud heaven....which is why the leftists want it.

If there was any chance that mail in voting would benefit Trump, the DNC would order their goons to start burning down USPS.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 22, 2020, 09:56:46 PM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1146054
As of August 4th, New York still hadn't counted all the votes (https://nypost.com/2020/08/04/judge-orders-new-york-state-to-count-invalidated-mail-in-ballots/) from the June primary.

Was that because Sanders actually beat Dementia JoJo in New York?

Or was it because Trump did too well in areas assumed locked down for Biden?

Greetings!

Well, since the fucking Democrats, the Media, the Deep State, have all been desperately trying to get rid of President Trump since his election in 2016, with Russia Gate, Ukraine Gate, Impeachment, and then the China Virus and the riots--and more fraudulent bullshit and conspiracies--it doesn't surprise any true Americans that these swine, these filthy, diseased rats, will seek to defraud the election in 2020, and hijack our Republic entirely. They will stop at nothing to gain power--and what the people want, or what the law says, or what the Constitution says--fuck all that. They will scheme to cheat in order to gain power. Mail in voting is one more bullshit element they plan to use to steal the election.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on August 22, 2020, 10:02:15 PM
Quote from: SHARK;1146057
more fraudulent bullshit and conspiracies

That's exactly what we should expect to see from SHARK too.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 10:25:12 PM
We should be able to create secure online voting with biometric/face recognition and advances in encryption in the next decade, but I doubt we'd see such a system before 2030. Of course, that's not accounting for AI hacking tools which will probably arrive first.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 22, 2020, 11:07:30 PM
Quote from: Spinachcat;1146063
We should be able to create secure online voting with biometric/face recognition and advances in encryption in the next decade, but I doubt we'd see such a system before 2030. Of course, that's not accounting for AI hacking tools which will probably arrive first.
We also have to worry about quantum computers. They might fuck up encryption, and the theoretical ways to guarantee a message has been unread using quantum dynamics may be further off.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 23, 2020, 12:11:57 AM
Quote from: Pat;1146070
We also have to worry about quantum computers. They might fuck up encryption, and the theoretical ways to guarantee a message has been unread using quantum dynamics may be further off.

Notice how when voting methods come up, suddenly all the people that are very quick to castigate the USA for not following the leads of other countries ... are not interested at all in how it is done elsewhere.  That's because pretty much everywhere else uses paper ballots, often because that is the only way to have a secure method and allow for secure auditing.

The ideal is practically the paper ballot fed on premise through an electronic vote counter--and then the paper ballots secured for audit until the election results are fully certified (that is, once all challenges allowed by the process have been exercised or passed).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on August 23, 2020, 12:17:44 AM
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1146076
Notice how when voting methods come up, suddenly all the people that are very quick to castigate the USA for not following the leads of other countries ... are not interested at all in how it is done elsewhere.  That's because pretty much everywhere else uses paper ballots, often because that is the only way to have a secure method and allow for secure auditing.

The ideal is practically the paper ballot fed on premise through an electronic vote counter--and then the paper ballots secured for audit until the election results are fully certified (that is, once all challenges allowed by the process have been exercised or passed).

Pretty much everywhere else also require voter IDs as part of the law - democrats hate that idea.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 24, 2020, 05:21:25 PM
From Politico (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/24/republicanmeltdown-trump-convention-400039)

Quote

It can now safely be said, as his first term in the White House draws toward closure, that Donald Trump's party is the very definition of a cult of personality. It stands for no special ideal. It possesses no organizing principle. It represents no detailed vision for governing. Filling the vacuum is a lazy, identity-based populism that draws from that lowest common denominator Sanford alluded to. If it agitates the base, if it lights up a Fox News chyron, if it serves to alienate sturdy real Americans from delicate coastal elites, then it's got a place in the Grand Old Party.

"Owning the libs and pissing off the media," shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide and imperturbable party veteran if ever there was one. "That's what we believe in now. There's really not much more to it."
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 24, 2020, 05:59:32 PM
Here's an interesting summary of cults of personality, by an academic:
https://abandonedfootnotes.blogspot.com/2011/03/simple-model-of-cults-of-personality.html

Cults of personality are traditionally defined as the populace believing outrageous things because they're persuaded those things are correct. Tight control of all sources of information is required, because otherwise people might hear alternatives which make more sense. That clearly doesn't apply to Trump, but does come close to true for the progressive ideology, which controls all mainstream media outlets save one, and is in the process of excluding all alternate voices from social media.

Marquez disputes that definition, correctly in my mind, pointing out that cults of personality aren't really about belief, but about signaling. The student Jun-sang didn't cry at Kim Il-sung's funeral (http://nothingtoenvy.com/) because he believed the Great Leader was truly great, but because people were watching, and his career and even life hinged on showing the proper level of respect. This closely parallels what's happening in response to George Floyd's death, with people being fired for following the wrong person on Twitter and stores putting up Black Lives Matter signs in hopes they won't be looted. They're being forced to signal fealty, in the hopes that they won't be next. What happened in 2016, when the poll results diverged from the election results, is a similar concept called preference falsification. (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674707580) People were lying in public, at work, and to pollster because they feared being punished for expressing their real beliefs. This has all come from the left, with their rising intolerance of alternate viewpoints, and via their hold on education, academia, mainstream and social media, and the social sciences.

Trump's followers are probably better described as status socialists. (http://www.juliansanchez.com/2010/11/04/patriotism-as-status-socialism-or-america-fk-yeah/) When you're in a bad place and have little to be proud of, it's easy to link your self-esteem to a symbol, typically a county. Trump's Make America Great Again appeals to that kind of thinking. But think about that that implies -- Trump's populism isn't appealing to cronyist elitists, it's appealing the disenfranchised.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 24, 2020, 09:06:29 PM
It's always hysterical to read articles about how Trump and his supporters have no beliefs, values, etc!! It's not like Trump hasn't given a dozen speeches on his America First ideology, but hey, its the MSM so why should facts matter?

Swamp RINOs have been crying about Trump because Jeb Bush was the Anointed One...Anointed to LOSE to Hillary because like Mittens Romney in 2012, the RINOs don't want to beat the Democrats, but just kick back, enjoy tasty lobbyist dollars and fundraise by continuing their litany of promises to the base. RINOs want "dignified failure" and a demoralized party satisfied by the most minor of "victories".

Trump turned the tables and won when he wasn't supposed to. Hopefully, he'll do it again.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 24, 2020, 09:53:42 PM
:rolleyes:

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on August 24, 2020, 10:17:40 PM
So I watched some of the DNC convention; it was just depressing. RNC so far has been pretty positive for the most part. Just an observation...
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 25, 2020, 08:08:01 AM
LOL. Richard 'He's TOTALLY a NAZI!' Spencer endorses the Dems. Of course.

Watching the 2016 campaign was fascinating in that the RNC spent inordinate amounts of resources to prop up Jeb! and later Marco Rubio, all for naught. You'd think they'd have gotten their shit together -- unless, of course, the point was to -lose- to Hillary.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 25, 2020, 08:39:38 AM
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1146357
LOL. Richard 'He's TOTALLY a NAZI!' Spencer endorses the Dems. Of course.

Watching the 2016 campaign was fascinating in that the RNC spent inordinate amounts of resources to prop up Jeb! and later Marco Rubio, all for naught. You'd think they'd have gotten their shit together -- unless, of course, the point was to -lose- to Hillary.

It was.

Which is why so many prominent Rs declared themselves "never-Trump". He had the audacity to upset the plan and substitute his own.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 02, 2020, 05:30:39 PM
One part of the Election that pundits follow pretty closely along with polls is the 'money race'.  After outraising Trump in June, Trump pulled in more money than Biden in July - $165 Million to (if memory serves, [edit to reflect correct total]$140 million). 


Trump has not yet released his August numbers, but Biden has raised $364Million+.  This shatters the prior record for fundraising from ANY candidate - Obama's $193 Million haul in September 2008. 


Trump has not yet released his August fundraising total.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 03, 2020, 08:26:17 AM
One part of the Election that pundits follow pretty closely along with polls is the 'money race'.  After outraising Trump in June, Trump pulled in more money than Biden in July - $165 Million to (if memory serves, [edit to reflect correct total]$140 million). 


Trump has not yet released his August numbers, but Biden has raised $364Million+.  This shatters the prior record for fundraising from ANY candidate - Obama's $193 Million haul in September 2008. 


Trump has not yet released his August fundraising total.
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 03, 2020, 09:31:04 AM
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.


None.  But I suppose you could argue that some outside groups will feel that they don't have to pitch in to amplify Biden's message, so they'll be free to divert funds to other priorities, including paying cash bail for places that still have it.  I don't know that there is anything wrong with that.  In this country you're innocent until proven guilty, so being held in prison seems like a violation of our freedom. 


Here's an Article (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/criminal-justice/reports/2020/03/16/481543/ending-cash-bail/) about Cash Bail Reform. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 03, 2020, 02:49:13 PM

None.  But I suppose you could argue that some outside groups will feel that they don't have to pitch in to amplify Biden's message, so they'll be free to divert funds to other priorities, including paying cash bail for places that still have it.  I don't know that there is anything wrong with that.  In this country you're innocent until proven guilty, so being held in prison seems like a violation of our freedom. 

Here's an Article (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/criminal-justice/reports/2020/03/16/481543/ending-cash-bail/) about Cash Bail Reform.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ


Hey, look at that. How totally unexpected. Democrats supporting violent thugs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 03, 2020, 03:16:53 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ)


Hey, look at that. How totally unexpected. Democrats supporting violent thugs.
The nerve of you pointing this out! I mean, some of those people were merely getting bread for their families.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 06:58:08 AM
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.


If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 04, 2020, 07:52:39 AM
The nerve of you pointing this out! I mean, some of those people were merely getting bread for their families.
And it's not like anyone got hurt, I mean, those businesses have insurance... /sarc.
Minneapolis is gonna look like Detroit in a year, barring some serious intervention.


If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Yeah, I know about ActBlue. Can't help but wonder if some of it's being funneled back to keep their magic riot machine rolling.


Speaking of Antifa terrorism, Michael Reinoehl, accused of murdering Aaron Danielson, was caught in Washington and decided to shoot it out with U.S. Marshals.


(cue up 'I Fought The Law And The Law Won')


So yeah, Reinoehl's now room temperature. Y'know, between the U.S. marshals recovering 50+ lost and trafficked children, and this, I'm starting to like those guys :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 04, 2020, 08:39:15 AM
Speaking of Antifa terrorism, Michael Reinoehl, accused of murdering Aaron Danielson, was caught in Washington and decided to shoot it out with U.S. Marshals.


(cue up 'I Fought The Law And The Law Won')


So yeah, Reinoehl's now room temperature. Y'know, between the U.S. marshals recovering 50+ lost and trafficked children, and this, I'm starting to like those guys :)
It's about to get even better.  U.S. Marshals office can deputize state and local law enforcement to act under their authority.  Which means that when they make an arrest, it's under federal law. So much for the marxist trick of making sure to commit their crimes with a Soros-paid DA.
Rook to h8.  Your move, scum. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 04, 2020, 10:02:05 AM
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 04, 2020, 10:22:00 AM
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on September 04, 2020, 10:58:36 AM
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.


Comparing this to the thousands of men in blue that are die hard conservatives that 175 is laughable.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 01:15:22 PM
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.


When Carmen Best publicly supports Joe Biden as the "Great White Hope" for the Presidency of the US, I'll pay attention. So far that list is a bunch of democrat political hacks.


deadDMwalking, You Must Build Additional Pylons!! I mean, You Must Try Harder!!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 02:17:33 PM
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on September 04, 2020, 03:01:31 PM
Were any of the Yankees here around and old enough for the 1972 election?  I'm just wondering how living that compares to living the current DemoKKKrat freak out.  I can't imagine the media was that much different back then.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 04, 2020, 03:08:38 PM
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 03:16:24 PM
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expenditures.php?cycle=2020&cmte=c00401224


https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/expenditures.php?cmte=C00401224&cycle=2020


https://secure.actblue.com/


There you go.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 03:38:46 PM
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expenditures.php?cycle=2020&cmte=c00401224


https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/expenditures.php?cmte=C00401224&cycle=2020


https://secure.actblue.com/


There you go.
That's my point. That's not what any of that says. ActBlue is basically an online payment processor, which allows people to donate to different organizations (mostly blue politicians, but also BLM). It's not taking money from BLM, and handing it out to Biden and Bernie. It's the service that Biden, Bernie, and BLM use to take payments from people who are donating to those specific organizations. Think of it like American Express or PayPal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 04:10:37 PM
Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
I thought Bannon was some kind of campaign architect, but after googling a bit it sounds like he was arrested for something related to fund raising. But my knowledge on the subject is too little to know what you mean.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 04, 2020, 06:02:56 PM
Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
I thought Bannon was some kind of campaign architect, but after googling a bit it sounds like he was arrested for something related to fund raising. But my knowledge on the subject is too little to know what you mean.


Bannon was involved in a GoFundMe scam where people were donating their own money to build the wall that Mexico was supposed to pay for, but mostly he just kept the money.    He could consider his 'management' a billable expense but it certainly wasn't disclosed to donors and is scummy even if it does not turn out to be explicitly illegal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 04, 2020, 10:48:40 PM
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


https://twitter.com/GLFOP/status/1301887833012133894


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhE74y0WoAALiNx?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 12:04:53 AM

That's my point. That's not what any of that says. ActBlue is basically an online payment processor, which allows people to donate to different organizations (mostly blue politicians, but also BLM). It's not taking money from BLM, and handing it out to Biden and Bernie. It's the service that Biden, Bernie, and BLM use to take payments from people who are donating to those specific organizations. Think of it like American Express or PayPal.


Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?




Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 05, 2020, 03:23:12 AM
Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?
Because they're explicitly a leftist organization. BLM presumably uses them because they're an effective fund raising tool, as well as being fellow travelers.

Found a better reference than Wikipedia:
https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/
https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/

ActBlue started out as a website in 2004, created specifically to help Democratic candidates collect funds from a lot of smaller donors. They provide a number services, like allowing donors to save their credit card and use it to donate to multiple candidates, automating the filling out of fund raising forms, a variety of tools for optimizing fund raising campaigns, as well as relatively low transaction fees. The Republicans don't have an equivalent organization, which hobbles their ability to raise money from lots of small donors.

ActBlue is broken into a three separate branches, each supporting a different type of legal entity. One of the three is a PAC, the other two are 501(c)3 and 501(c)4 charitable/social welfare organizations, and each supports their own kind. All three provide the same basic fund raising platform services, and the funds they collect (minus transaction fees) are passed through to the entities chosen by the donors, rather than being distributed at ActBlue's discretion. All the groups they support are progressive, and the ones I recognize include the charities GLAAD, Mother Jones, and the Southern Poverty Law Center; the social welfare groups ACLU, NOW, and Planned Parenthood; and a bunch of PACs (which I don't know by name).

There's also a for-profit branch (an LLC), but it's unclear what its role is. Though it may be the original -- the three branches above were founded between 2009 and 2015, but the website dates to 2004.

This link has some more detail about the services ActBlue provides and where the money goes:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
"ActBlue works with candidates at the local, state, and national levels -- from school board races to presidential campaigns -- to squeeze every dollar out of their email fundraising pleas or the ubiquitous 'Donate' button on their websites," Kroll wrote.  "Engineers streamline the process of giving to a campaign or cause.  They toy with typefaces, reduce load times, and adapt the product to all devices and operating systems.  Like an Olympic sprinter in training, ActBlue obsesses over shaving off every millisecond."
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
[ActBlue] charges nothing for its services.  (It takes 4 percent of every donation to cover credit card processing fees.)  Operating costs are paid with tips left by donors and the occasional fundraising campaign.
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
The average contribution size [in 2017, including all 3 branches] was a very-"grassrootsy" $31.95.  More than half of all donors gave for the first time in 2017, and just over 40 percent of all contributions were made from a mobile device.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 05:56:21 PM
Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?
Because they're explicitly a leftist organization. BLM presumably uses them because they're an effective fund raising tool, as well as being fellow travelers.

Found a better reference than Wikipedia:
https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/)

ActBlue started out as a website in 2004, created specifically to help Democratic candidates collect funds from a lot of smaller donors. They provide a number services, like allowing donors to save their credit card and use it to donate to multiple candidates, automating the filling out of fund raising forms, a variety of tools for optimizing fund raising campaigns, as well as relatively low transaction fees. The Republicans don't have an equivalent organization, which hobbles their ability to raise money from lots of small donors.

ActBlue is broken into a three separate branches, each supporting a different type of legal entity. One of the three is a PAC, the other two are 501(c)3 and 501(c)4 charitable/social welfare organizations, and each supports their own kind. All three provide the same basic fund raising platform services, and the funds they collect (minus transaction fees) are passed through to the entities chosen by the donors, rather than being distributed at ActBlue's discretion. All the groups they support are progressive, and the ones I recognize include the charities GLAAD, Mother Jones, and the Southern Poverty Law Center; the social welfare groups ACLU, NOW, and Planned Parenthood; and a bunch of PACs (which I don't know by name).

There's also a for-profit branch (an LLC), but it's unclear what its role is. Though it may be the original -- the three branches above were founded between 2009 and 2015, but the website dates to 2004.

This link has some more detail about the services ActBlue provides and where the money goes:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html)
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
"ActBlue works with candidates at the local, state, and national levels -- from school board races to presidential campaigns -- to squeeze every dollar out of their email fundraising pleas or the ubiquitous 'Donate' button on their websites," Kroll wrote.  "Engineers streamline the process of giving to a campaign or cause.  They toy with typefaces, reduce load times, and adapt the product to all devices and operating systems.  Like an Olympic sprinter in training, ActBlue obsesses over shaving off every millisecond."
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
[ActBlue] charges nothing for its services.  (It takes 4 percent of every donation to cover credit card processing fees.)  Operating costs are paid with tips left by donors and the occasional fundraising campaign.
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
The average contribution size [in 2017, including all 3 branches] was a very-"grassrootsy" $31.95.  More than half of all donors gave for the first time in 2017, and just over 40 percent of all contributions were made from a mobile device.


So, BLM which uses ActBlue, which is a self-proclaimed leftist payment processor, does not funnel money in support of liberal democrats running for office. So where does the money that BLM raises go? I'm asking because from what I can see, including what you have shown me, it still looks like a lot of it is going to support liberal democrat candidates.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 05, 2020, 06:53:23 PM
So, BLM which uses ActBlue, which is a self-proclaimed leftist payment processor, does not funnel money in support of liberal democrats running for office. So where does the money that BLM raises go? I'm asking because from what I can see, including what you have shown me, it still looks like a lot of it is going to support liberal democrat candidates.
I don't know where the money BLM raises is going. Looking around, it's an open question, because they're not very transparent. They've denied giving money directly to the DNC, and claim it's going to "civic engagement, expansion of chapters, Arts & Culture, organizing and digital advocacy resources and tools" (from an AskReddit thread), but that's pretty vague. For all we know, some of it may go to activism and candidates. At the very least, advocacy and engagement is likely to favor Democrats and Democratic causes, for a spillover effect. But that would be BLM acting directly, and unrelated to ActBlue.

I was mistaken about one thing: There is a Republican equivalent to ActBlue, called WinRed. Though it's new, formed in response to the record $700 million ActBlue raised in the 2018 midterms. WinRed is functionally about a year old, and there's been some pushback because apparently the fees and higher and at least some GOP candidates want to use other fund raising platforms (like Anedot).
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/16/backlash_ensues_as_rncs_winred_fundraising_hammer_falls.html

Do some more digging, it looks like the umbrella Black Lives Matter organization, called the Black Lives Matter Global Network (the "Global" is a recent addition), is a corporation, not a charity. They're the ones with the big ActBlue DONATE button on their website, but since ActBlue Charities only works with 501(c)3 organizations, that money technically goes to the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, which is "fiscally sponsored" by a 501(c)3 non-profit.

Their original sponsor (2016) was Thousand Currents, but after TC decided to stop sponsoring other organizations in order to focus more on their core mission, that role was taken over by Tides (in July 2020). Fiscal sponsorship is intended for organizations that plan to seek 501(c)3 status, but don't yet qualify (like not having a board, or not having filed in a state, or whatever). Looks like the sponsor creates a fund, which it uses to make grants to the sponsored group; or the sponsored group becomes legally part of the sponsor (probably the first).

The various chapters in different cities are independent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/the-story-behind-thousand-currents-the-charity-that-doles-out-the-millions-of-dollars-black-lives-matter-generates-in-donations/ar-BB15Ytxo
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/donations-to-black-lives-matter-group-dont-go-to-dnc/
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-1108/141260/20200409134118279_19-1108BriefOfRespondent.pdf
https://www.peoples-law.org/fiscal-sponsorship-alternative-filing-501c3-tax-exempt-status
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 11:24:12 PM

Do some more digging, it looks like the umbrella Black Lives Matter organization, called the Black Lives Matter Global Network (the "Global" is a recent addition), is a corporation, not a charity.


Way ahead of you. From over three months ago.


Quote from: jeff37923, DriveThruRPG Supporting BLM[font=verdana
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2020, 08:28:26 AM »][/font]

I'm pretty concerned where and how my money is being spent when I donate it. It isn't just Black Lives Matter, it is Black Lives Matter Foundation Incorporated. They are a business, but they are not a non-profit 501(3)c. They are also only six years old. So how is money that is donated to them spent? What percentage is used for overhead? How much gets to the people they are trying to help?

You and estar can use your IP and spend your money however you like. My take on this is that if you really want to help out blacks in America,  then your donations of money might be better spent on the NAACP or the UNCF although neither is topical in the media right now.[/quote]

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 08, 2020, 01:52:03 PM
Zuckerberg apparently thinks the media "should work to convince the American public there is nothing illegitimate, strange, or suspect about the results [of the] upcoming presidential election".
https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/

It's not the job of the media to decide what happens before it happens and to suppress any opposing views. That's the job of the Ministry of Truth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 08, 2020, 02:48:07 PM
Zuckerberg apparently thinks the media "should work to convince the American public there is nothing illegitimate, strange, or suspect about the results [of the] upcoming presidential election".
https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/ (https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/)

It's not the job of the media to decide what happens before it happens and to suppress any opposing views. That's the job of the Ministry of Truth.
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 08, 2020, 07:49:56 PM
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
I used to think Aldous Huxley had predicted the future better, but it's becoming easier and easier to quote Orwell.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 09, 2020, 08:13:23 AM
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
I used to think Aldous Huxley had predicted the future better, but it's becoming easier and easier to quote Orwell.
At this rate, it's the two of them keeping score while sitting on a park bench in the afterlife while sharing a bottle of good booze.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Garry G on September 09, 2020, 10:37:21 AM
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”
[/size][/color]
[/size]I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community. [/color]
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 01:18:21 PM
I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.
Based on my experience, no one is welcome here. So he'd be just as unwelcome as the other animals.

Orwell lived in tumultuous times, and his views changed as the world did. He was a rationalist and an intellectual who despised religion, though he attended Anglican services throughout his life. He saw the rise of the Soviet Union, of fascism in Italy and Germany, and first hand in Spain, where he became a socialist while in a hospital bed, after supporting the anarchists against Franco in the Civil War. He created an anarchist theory that all government was evil, but believed that government had to exist to protect people from injustice. At his core, he seemed to value individual freedom and self-determination, and opposed totalitarianism with ever fiber of his being, which is what most people, when they aren't cherry picking to find favor or disfavor for specific personal beliefs, will find in 1984 and Animal Farm.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 09, 2020, 01:35:30 PM
On July 1st, Trump and the RNC released their June fundraising totals ($131 Million).  His June fundraising was eclipsed by Biden.  On August 5th, Trump and the RNC released their fundraising totals ($165 million) after Biden had announced his.  The June fundraising was a surprise; incumbents usually have the fundraising advantage.  Biden's fund raising in August was $365 million and here it is, September 9th, and Trump and the RNC have yet to announce their fundraising totals.  If it had been anywhere north of $190 million, they certainly would have been able to spin this as ALSO breaking the previous fundraising record held by Barrack Obama. 

Excluding mega-donors, more than $200 million to the Biden campaign came from small dollar donations (ie, just focusing on 'real Americans' would have been enough by itself to have broken the previous record).  While the August figures for the RNC have not yet been released, the Trump campaign is in a cash crunch (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/politics/trump-election-campaign-fundraising.html).  The Trump campaign defends the $800 Million they've already spent as building infrastructure to compete with ActBlue.  In the last two weeks of August, the Biden campaign spent $35 million on advertising compared to Trump's $5 million. 

An article detailing the current ad spends (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html) shows Biden with $182 million being spent in the Battleground States to $158 million; of the 10 battleground states identified, Trump won all but one; as a result he is 'playing defense'. 

Trump began fundraising for re-election immediately after assuming office; he has raised $1.2 billion through July.  With July's fundraising total, Biden has now raised over $1 billion as well.




Edit - Trump just announced his August fundraising. $210 Million (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/biden-outraised-trump-150-million-410832)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 02:32:47 PM
I'd be curious to see a breakdown of how much Trump got from small donors. ActBlue is a serious advantage for the Democrats.

I'm finding quotes like this (Biden): "Last month we raised $364.5 million -- 95% of the donations from grassroots supporters like you and the majority online." Which doesn't seem to match the $200 million from small donors you found, but he could be playing games with the word "grassroots".
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-raises-a-record-3645-million-in-august-164352924.html
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 09, 2020, 03:53:30 PM
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.


Hell, man. Someone who could actually make good arguments for democratic socialism without flipping their shit if someone disagrees would be fine. And anyone against totalitarianism is OK with me.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 09, 2020, 03:54:58 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize-by-norwegian-official (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize-by-norwegian-official)


If Obama could get one for no appreciable reason I can see, why not Trump? We can actually point out something specific Trump did to promote peace in the middle east.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 09, 2020, 04:46:40 PM
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.


Hell, man. Someone who could actually make good arguments for democratic socialism without flipping their shit if someone disagrees would be fine. And anyone against totalitarianism is OK with me.
QFT
There's a reason Orwell is respected by those of us opposed to socialism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 09, 2020, 05:01:02 PM
On July 1st, Trump and the RNC released their June fundraising totals ($131 Million).  His June fundraising was eclipsed by Biden.  On August 5th, Trump and the RNC released their fundraising totals ($165 million) after Biden had announced his.  The June fundraising was a surprise; incumbents usually have the fundraising advantage.  Biden's fund raising in August was $365 million and here it is, September 9th, and Trump and the RNC have yet to announce their fundraising totals.  If it had been anywhere north of $190 million, they certainly would have been able to spin this as ALSO breaking the previous fundraising record held by Barrack Obama. 

Excluding mega-donors, more than $200 million to the Biden campaign came from small dollar donations (ie, just focusing on 'real Americans' would have been enough by itself to have broken the previous record).  While the August figures for the RNC have not yet been released, the Trump campaign is in a cash crunch (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/politics/trump-election-campaign-fundraising.html).  The Trump campaign defends the $800 Million they've already spent as building infrastructure to compete with ActBlue.  In the last two weeks of August, the Biden campaign spent $35 million on advertising compared to Trump's $5 million. 

An article detailing the current ad spends (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html) shows Biden with $182 million being spent in the Battleground States to $158 million; of the 10 battleground states identified, Trump won all but one; as a result he is 'playing defense'. 

Trump began fundraising for re-election immediately after assuming office; he has raised $1.2 billion through July.  With July's fundraising total, Biden has now raised over $1 billion as well.




Edit - Trump just announced his August fundraising. $210 Million (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/biden-outraised-trump-150-million-410832)
Jesus, you need to try a little harder...
First it was polls, polls, polls even though I pointed out that public polls are meant to sway opinion, not report on it.  A better indicator of the internal polling was what the campaigns did.
Now its money, money, money...
A) Hardly surprising since all the Neocon warmongers are supporting Biden.
B) I'm just gonna leave this here... https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/ (https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 09, 2020, 08:55:17 PM
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.
Is this one of those, "Nazis weren't socialists!," comments?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 09, 2020, 09:55:14 PM
Every now and then things simplify to two sides:  Those that want to control what everyone else does and those that don't like that.  When you are in the second group and in one of those times, you'll take any reliable person in the fox hole, even if in a more peaceful time you might be opponents.  Get the control freaks out of the picture, then the rest of us can go back to arguing about the borders on less weighty issues.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 11:01:13 PM
Is this one of those, "Nazis weren't socialists!," comments?
Absolutely not, Orwell criticized every major strain of socialism and every major socialist figure of his time. He was a universal gadfly or critic of excesses or affronts to common decency.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 10, 2020, 08:08:14 AM
I suspect Orwell was learning the sad lesson -- that socialism and communism (BIRM) simply set up a new form of feudal style governance, because of human nature.


Thomas Sowell's Vision of the Anointed is very useful if you want to pursue this line of thought.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 10, 2020, 09:26:52 AM
I don't think Orwell learned that lesson, because he remained sympathetic to socialism until the end. But while he was widely read in socialist thought -- his personal library was huge -- he seemed to idealize the community-minded workers ruled by common decency, over the theoretical edifices created by intellectuals. This is me guessing nothing more, but I'd say he liked the dream of socialism but never really reconciled the utopian ideals he admired with the inevitable consequences. Since he wasn't the type to cleave to one side, and defend it at all costs, while attacking all others, as many do today, he ended up savaging the failures of his fellow travelers far more than he criticized those on the opposite end of the spectrum, simply because he was more familiar with their shortcomings.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Anthony Pacheco on September 12, 2020, 05:06:43 PM
I suspect Orwell was learning the sad lesson -- that socialism and communism (BIRM) simply set up a new form of feudal style governance, because of human nature.


Thomas Sowell's Vision of the Anointed is very useful if you want to pursue this line of thought.

I concur with this Sowell recommendation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on September 15, 2020, 06:58:46 PM
  I have to LOL at mentioning democratic "fund raising" without mentioning a GIANT ELEPHANT in the room that is likely the source of said fund raising.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 16, 2020, 01:50:34 AM
Oggsmash, you're talking crazy!

It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 16, 2020, 10:03:32 AM
Oggsmash, you're talking crazy!

It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!
And conversely, funds from the Biden/Harris campaign were being funneled into bail funds to bail out arrested BLM/Antifa rioters.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on September 16, 2020, 10:32:34 AM
The weather is pretty fine in Texas, boys.


Sure we got some mild infection in Austin. But that's Austin, they'll figure it out. When the Rifts open, count on Lone Star.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 16, 2020, 01:55:29 PM
It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!
You're correct, they're not doing that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 16, 2020, 07:56:46 PM
You're correct, they're not doing that.

Because this link doesn't exist on the BLM homepage?It's the big blue square that says Donate!https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019 (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019)
Imagine that! Avowed marxists and domestic terrorists tied at the hip with the DNC's fundraising engine.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 16, 2020, 09:31:57 PM
You're correct, they're not doing that.

Because this link doesn't exist on the BLM homepage?It's the big blue square that says Donate!https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019 (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019)
Imagine that! Avowed marxists and domestic terrorists tied at the hip with the DNC's fundraising engine.
We covered this, two or three pages back. Your interpretation is completely wrong.

ActBlue is a fund raising platform, that helps progressive organizations and candidates raise money for those specific organizations and candidates. If you click on the big DONATE on Joe Biden's website, it goes to his campaign, minus a fairly modest transaction fee (about 4%, IIRC). If you click on the big DONATE on the BLM website, it's slightly more complex because BLM is a for-profit company and ActBlue doesn't work with non-profits. So BLM has a foundation that's presumably applying for non-profit status, but in the meantime is being sponsored by Tides, which shares their 503(c)3 status with the BLM foundation. So it's a little more complex because of IRS legal classifications, but it amounts to the same thing: Minus the transaction fees, the money from that big DONATE button on the BLM website goes to BLM (though it's handled by a specific foundation).

ActBlue isn't some secret foundation that takes all the money when you click DONATE on any of those sites, and then distributes it however they want. They're not a Cobalt United Way.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 17, 2020, 04:56:41 AM
Pat, the financial shenanigans involving 501(c)3 fundraising was so outrageous even Colbert addressed it back before he lost his brain to TDS.


I'm sure there's no connection whatsoever that Biden had his mega-fundraising happen exactly when BLM became the 24/7 media focus and corporations were dumping millions into BLM (via ActBlue) as protection money, oops, I meant to fight oppression.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 17, 2020, 07:42:34 AM
You're confusing completely different things. Colbert mocked Super PACs by creating one and abusing the rules. But a PAC is a 527 organization, not a 501(c)3, which are charities like the Red Cross. Act Blue has separate branches providing support to progressive PACs, 501(c)3s, and 501(c)4s (the latter are primarily social welfare groups), and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.

Biden uses the ActBlue organization for PACs. BLM uses the one for 501(c)3s. So you're arguing that they're funneling money from charities to political advocacy groups, which is an egregious violation of I don't know how many rules in an area with lots of legal and financial scrutiny. That's roughly equivalent to accusing Hillary of eating babies. Which is certainly possible, but you need at least a shred of evidence to even qualify as a conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 18, 2020, 12:16:15 AM
and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.
Control freaky like when the IRS targeted conservative non-profits and fundraising groups under Obama, but magically all the campaign finance issues surrounding AOC and Ilhan Omar vanish like pixie dust?

Definitely "control freaky"...but only in one direction.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 04:19:10 AM
and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.
Control freaky like when the IRS targeted conservative non-profits and fundraising groups under Obama, but magically all the campaign finance issues surrounding AOC and Ilhan Omar vanish like pixie dust?

Definitely "control freaky"...but only in one direction.
You're just moving the goalposts and attempting to tar by association. We're not talking about AOC or Ilhan Omar, maybe a million dollars, abuse of loopholes or vagueness in campaign finance rules exploited by specific campaigns in ways that were clearly unethical but possibly legal, specific details about what happened in both cases, articles in the media that covered all that, and an investigation by authorities. We're talking about ActBlue, hundreds of millions of dollars, an absurd claim with no credible mechanism and no specific details, no articles in the media just vague conspiracy theories based on complete misunderstanding of the basic role of ActBlue, and no formal investigations.

There are definitely problems with bias in how things are approved or whether investigations go forward, but that's what happens when you give the fourth branch of government (the bureaucracy) broad discretion to make judgment calls, as in approving non-profits or selectively deciding which laws to enforce.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 18, 2020, 08:23:14 AM
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 11:05:56 AM
I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 18, 2020, 11:26:36 AM
I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
When they're not getting it from China.


The Black Futures Lab, an outgrowth of BLM, is receiving a nice paycheck from the Chinese Progressive Association.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 11:53:30 AM
When they're not getting it from China.


The Black Futures Lab, an outgrowth of BLM, is receiving a nice paycheck from the Chinese Progressive Association.
"our commitment to use our political strength to stop corporate influences from creeping into progressive policies"

Literally laughed out loud at this. These people are fucking insane.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 12:16:22 PM
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Did you hit your head? Because we're not talking about that. Spinachcat claimed that the money given to BLM when someone clicks on the big DONATE button on their website really goes to Joe Biden's campaign. I pointed out there's zero evidence for it. There's not even a plausible mechanism by which it can happen.

Spinachcat replied by bringing up campaign finance irregularities with AOC and Ilhan Omar's campaigns, which has nothing to do with ActBlue or BLM. Completely different organizations, probably completely different people, and none of the methods they used would transfer over because their organizational structures and legal requirements are completely different. So it was just a smokescreen, which provides no evidence that BLM is passing money to Biden via ActBlue, or even a method by which it might have been done. So yes, it's an attempt to tar by association. It's equivalent to saying water is blue, so that means anything blue is wet.

I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I'm sure some of their money ends up supporting them, via individual contributions or PACs. But that's not what we're talking about. Please don't carry over reflexive tribalism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 18, 2020, 12:20:25 PM
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Did you hit your head? Because we're not talking about that. Spinachcat claimed that the money given to BLM when someone clicks on the big DONATE button on their website really goes to Joe Biden's campaign. I pointed out there's zero evidence for it. There's not even a plausible mechanism by which it can happen.

Spinachcat replied by bringing up campaign finance irregularities with AOC and Ilhan Omar's campaigns, which has nothing to do with ActBlue or BLM. Completely different organizations, probably completely different people, and none of the methods they used would transfer over because their organizational structures and legal requirements are completely different. So it was just a smokescreen, which provides no evidence that BLM is passing money to Biden via ActBlue, or even a method by which it might have been done. So yes, it's an attempt to tar by association. It's equivalent to saying water is blue, so that means anything blue is wet.

I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I'm sure some of their money ends up supporting them, via individual contributions or PACs. But that's not what we're talking about. Please don't carry over reflexive tribalism.


There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 18, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .


Is what it’s come when having a discussion. Agree with the poster or one is “insert word” ist or a victim of “insert word” ism.
Mi can do too when a discussion is not going my way lol 😂.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 02:29:36 PM
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 02:45:08 PM
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.
Nahh
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 18, 2020, 02:46:58 PM
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.


So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 18, 2020, 08:07:30 PM
I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt Pat except when an discussion does not go your way you toss out everyone is being Tribalistic".


To myself at least you don't really like push-back during a discussion. You want to hear what you want to hear and nothing else. With everyone at fault or in error.


It comes off wanting an echo chamber and not wanting to engage.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on September 18, 2020, 09:23:02 PM
So, Ruth Bader-Ginsberg has died.


And you thought this election was going to be insane before.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 19, 2020, 12:56:40 AM
So, Ruth Bader-Ginsberg has died.


And you thought this election was going to be insane before.


My favorite reaction so far.


https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330


I'm like, bitch, have you looked out a window lately?


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 01:15:01 PM
I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt Pat except when an discussion does not go your way you toss out everyone is being Tribalistic".


To myself at least you don't really like push-back during a discussion. You want to hear what you want to hear and nothing else. With everyone at fault or in error.


It comes off wanting an echo chamber and not wanting to engage.
I've mentioned tribalism in exactly two discussions, and this time it only came up because Brad butted into the discussion with a dismissive and contentless reference to the earlier thread, so I asked him not to. So this pattern of behavior you're claiming I have is based on one instance, and second explicit request that we not do this again.

You should look in a mirror. The overreaction by you and others is a much stronger pattern.

And I tend to thrive when there's pushback, just look at the discussion I was having with Spinachcat before the rest of you jumped in. I was explaining how things work, and presenting arguments and evidence.

In contrast, none of you have done that. Your responses in both the previous thread and now in this one have been almost utterly devoid of content, amounting to "nah", telling me your (negative and false) impressions of me (like this post of yours), or putting words in my mouth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 01:15:40 PM
So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
I don't have a tribe.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 19, 2020, 02:30:42 PM
So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
I don't have a tribe.


So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?


Who among our clans shall take in this lonely one? To give it a home and hearth. To grant it an ideology worthy of its daring?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 19, 2020, 02:38:35 PM
I've mentioned tribalism in exactly two discussions, and this time it only came up because Brad butted into the discussion with a dismissive and contentless reference to the earlier thread, so I asked him not to. So this pattern of behavior you're claiming I have is based on one instance, and second explicit request that we not do this again.
You are just completely unable to admit when you're wrong, even when presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Clutch those pearls!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 02:55:36 PM
So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?
Nope. It seems to be desperately important to you, though.

You are just completely unable to admit when you're wrong, even when presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Clutch those pearls!
Zero is overwhelming? Because you certainly haven't provided a single shred of evidence,.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 19, 2020, 03:34:39 PM
So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?
Nope. It seems to be desperately important to you, though.


It is, because I am laughing at your antics.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 19, 2020, 04:20:19 PM
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
In my experience, that doesn't apply to Pat.

He (or she, it's Pat!) is always fun to joust with because while Pat staunchly (or some say stubbornly) holds to his positions (as I do too), Pat always seems TO ME to be willing to look at other perspectives and evidence. 



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 20, 2020, 05:45:58 PM

My favorite reaction so far.


https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330 (https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330)


I'm like, bitch, have you looked out a window lately?
Saw that. Would like to see him sitting in an interrogation room downtown, explaining why he wasn't making terroristic threats. But then, I've gotten tired of these low life blue checkmarks talking big when it's not their asses on the line.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 20, 2020, 06:18:12 PM
This RBG situation is entirely the fault of her hubris. Nobody else.
She was severely ill during Obama's 2nd term. She could have stepped down, helped oversee the choice and nomination of her replacement. She would have spent her last days being lauded by law schools and the media as the Queen of the Law. Nope. She CHOOSE to spend her last days nodding off on the job and barely existing until the eventual occurred.

"Notorious RBG" now exists as a stark object lesson. If Trump somehow wins and keeps the Senate, then the old conservative supremes need to ride into their sunset and let younger, equally (or more) conservative judges take their seats.

Plus, the Democrats have already promised to expand the Supreme Court and pack the seats, so let's bring on civil war or submission.

Let's really see what's left in America's nutsack.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on September 20, 2020, 07:27:28 PM
BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 07:13:02 AM
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
That's a more reasonable claim, though you can have obscene salaries, fat expense accounts, and fund all your pet projects without violating any laws. The real question is what kind of financial stewardship Thousand Currents, or Tides as of a month or two ago, are providing. Those are the two charities that have lent BLM their 501(c)3 status, which means the money from ActBlue went to them, to manage for the BLM Foundation. That's enough layers of indirection to hide some sins, but both Tides and Thousands Currents have been around for 30 or more years, so at the very least they know how to handle the accounting and maintain a semblance of propriety.

I'm not familiar with either, so I looked them both up in Charity Navigator. Thousand Currents seems quite reputable. They're global, and get a high rating for financial accountability and transparency. Tides on the other hand gets a failing score. Which could suggest something about why BLM switched, though Thousand Currents claims that the reason BLM left is because TC decided to sunset their financial sponsorship program. Note while they're both a respectable size for a charity, they're fairly small, compared to the money BLM is bringing in -- TC has an annual revenue of about $6 million, and Tides is somewhat smaller at about $4 million.

Though how much BLM has raised is an open question. One hint is that in June, their Foundation announced a $6.5 million plan to support "grassroots" organizing (for definitions of "grassroots" that allow for funding from above, I assume). They also have plans in media and education, and have been sponsoring artists since 2015.

Okay, this is weird. Looked up BLM in Charity Navigator, and found the BLM Foundation, which has a "moderate" advisory that mentions a cease & desist order from the attorneys general of NY and California, and a Buzzfeed article that says the BLM Foundation has zero ties to the BLM organization that gets all the press:
Quote
The Black Lives Matter Foundation, a Santa Clarita, California–based charitable organization that has one paid employee and lists a UPS store as its address, has a very different goal, according to its founder: “bringing the community and police closer together.”
...
“I don't have anything to do with the Black Lives Matter Global Network. I never met them; never spoke to them. I don't know them; I have no relationship with them,” Robert Ray Barnes, the founder of the Black Lives Matter Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a lengthy interview. “Our whole thing is having unity with the police department.”
Checked the BLM website, and the ActBlue link -- it says the money goes to the "Black Lives Matter Support Fund" at Tides. So the BLM Foundation" is an entirely different pro-cops group, and the money going to the real BLM is sent to a "Fund". Which sounds like Tides (and probably Thousands Currents before) are more directly handling the money (one of the two options for sponsorship legally turns the sponsored group into a branch of the sponsor), though that's a weak supposition. To further confuse things, the BLM Global Network Foundation is the full name of the popular BLM organization.

https://www.tides.org/
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/
https://thousandcurrents.org/
https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099
https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372
https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:05:45 AM
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
That's a more reasonable claim, though you can have obscene salaries, fat expense accounts, and fund all your pet projects without violating any laws. The real question is what kind of financial stewardship Thousand Currents, or Tides as of a month or two ago, are providing. Those are the two charities that have lent BLM their 501(c)3 status, which means the money from ActBlue went to them, to manage for the BLM Foundation. That's enough layers of indirection to hide some sins, but both Tides and Thousands Currents have been around for 30 or more years, so at the very least they know how to handle the accounting and maintain a semblance of propriety.

I'm not familiar with either, so I looked them both up in Charity Navigator. Thousand Currents seems quite reputable. They're global, and get a high rating for financial accountability and transparency. Tides on the other hand gets a failing score. Which could suggest something about why BLM switched, though Thousand Currents claims that the reason BLM left is because TC decided to sunset their financial sponsorship program. Note while they're both a respectable size for a charity, they're fairly small, compared to the money BLM is bringing in -- TC has an annual revenue of about $6 million, and Tides is somewhat smaller at about $4 million.

Though how much BLM has raised is an open question. One hint is that in June, their Foundation announced a $6.5 million plan to support "grassroots" organizing (for definitions of "grassroots" that allow for funding from above, I assume). They also have plans in media and education, and have been sponsoring artists since 2015.

Okay, this is weird. Looked up BLM in Charity Navigator, and found the BLM Foundation, which has a "moderate" advisory that mentions a cease & desist order from the attorneys general of NY and California, and a Buzzfeed article that says the BLM Foundation has zero ties to the BLM organization that gets all the press:
Quote
The Black Lives Matter Foundation, a Santa Clarita, California–based charitable organization that has one paid employee and lists a UPS store as its address, has a very different goal, according to its founder: “bringing the community and police closer together.”
...
“I don't have anything to do with the Black Lives Matter Global Network. I never met them; never spoke to them. I don't know them; I have no relationship with them,” Robert Ray Barnes, the founder of the Black Lives Matter Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a lengthy interview. “Our whole thing is having unity with the police department.”
Checked the BLM website, and the ActBlue link -- it says the money goes to the "Black Lives Matter Support Fund" at Tides. So the BLM Foundation" is an entirely different pro-cops group, and the money going to the real BLM is sent to a "Fund". Which sounds like Tides (and probably Thousands Currents before) are more directly handling the money (one of the two options for sponsorship legally turns the sponsored group into a branch of the sponsor), though that's a weak supposition. To further confuse things, the BLM Global Network Foundation is the full name of the popular BLM organization.

https://www.tides.org/ (https://www.tides.org/)
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/ (https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/)
https://thousandcurrents.org/ (https://thousandcurrents.org/)
https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/ (https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372)
https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/ (https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254)
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html)
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/)
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations)


Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 08:08:19 AM
Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
That was the distinction I was making -- the BLM Foundation is pro-cop, in contrast to its more famous namesake.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:24:59 AM
Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
That was the distinction I was making -- the BLM Foundation is pro-cop, in contrast to its more famous namesake.


All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 12:22:17 PM
All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
No, this is on you. What do you do, scan my posts for things you can maliciously misinterpret, and ignore all the rest of the context? Who would say that BLM (the famous one) is pro-cops? That makes no fucking sense. I was making a distinction between the BLM Global Network Foundation (the group all the rioters love), and the BLM Foundation (which apparently tries to work cooperatively with cops -- read the links). If you have trouble parsing basic sentences, then throw commas before and after "pro-cops group". That should make the meaning clear, even to you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 02:11:04 PM
All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
No, this is on you. What do you do, scan my posts for things you can maliciously misinterpret, and ignore all the rest of the context? Who would say that BLM (the famous one) is pro-cops? That makes no fucking sense. I was making a distinction between the BLM Global Network Foundation (the group all the rioters love), and the BLM Foundation (which apparently tries to work cooperatively with cops -- read the links). If you have trouble parsing basic sentences, then throw commas before and after "pro-cops group". That should make the meaning clear, even to you.


No, fuck-o. This is on you to explain yourself in a clear and concise manner if you want your message to be communicated effectively. Right now you are just throwing out a bunch of bullshit to obfuscate the fact that a cornerstone of BLM is to defund police departments which is anything but "pro-cop".
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 21, 2020, 04:06:44 PM

Greetings!


Yeah, when myself or anyone else refers to "BLM"--everyone knows what organization is being discussed. The fact that somewhere there exists an organization called "BLM The Sweet Garden Charity" is irrelevant.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:20:48 PM
No, fuck-o. This is on you to explain yourself in a clear and concise manner if you want your message to be communicated effectively. Right now you are just throwing out a bunch of bullshit to obfuscate the fact that a cornerstone of BLM is to defund police departments which is anything but "pro-cop".
I literally said the opposite. If you twist and squint, you can make it say what you're claiming it says, but that defies the nature of the (real) BLM as understood both by their enemies and allies, my position on BLM (they're a Marxist hate group), and the sentence structure itself, which places the BLM and the faux-BLM groups in opposition. Requiring someone to write sentences with such clarity that they can't be misinterpreted by someone willing to ignore every last bit of context is completely unreasonable even in formal writing, much less in posts on an anti-swine messageboard. It's also literally impossible in many cases, at least without ballooning writing with a crazy number of caveats, given that the English language is a human language, not a form of mathematics or a programming language, and thus lacks their precision. That's why context, and not interpreting things as maliciously as possible, is essential to communication.

You cherry-picked something that could be interpreted two ways, and ignored the clear context that pointed to the other interpretation. Rather than criticizing or attacking you, I simply explained in neutral terms what I actually intended. Which should have ended it, because the author presumably knows what they meant. But no, you've been flipping out ever since.

So it's all on you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 21, 2020, 05:22:55 PM
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:32:31 PM
Yeah, when myself or anyone else refers to "BLM"--everyone knows what organization is being discussed. The fact that somewhere there exists an organization called "BLM The Sweet Garden Charity" is irrelevant.
Evidence suggests otherwise. The cease and desist orders are because they were confusing people. The Buzzfeed article talks about a GoFundMe, and MSN expands on that by saying $4.35 million has been donated in error to the smaller group:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/millions-mistakenly-raised-for-black-lives-matter-group-not-associated-with-movement/ar-BB15wQMj

And this isn't just random people doing a search for BLM and accidentally donating to a guy in his garage. If you look around, there are quite a few published articles that are confusing BLM (burn loot murder) with the pro-cop (or at least cop-appeasing) BLM. Here's one that can't separate the two:
https://www.teaparty.org/top-black-lives-matter-activist-questions-where-the-millions-of-dollars-in-donations-are-going-no-one-knows-442947/
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:32:48 PM
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
That's not a nice thing to say about Jeff.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on September 21, 2020, 07:31:23 PM
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.

It is, but not the way you think. I’ve been following this side discussion on and off, and the only one I’ve seen make actual arguments, provide evidence or bring up verifiable facts has been Pat. Everyone else has just been engaging on wild speculation or character attacks because Pat is contradicting them with facts and specific details that you could look up, and if Pat is truly wrong about these details you could point them out and call them out on his (or her? It Pat!) BS.

Yet interestingly enough people ARE calling Pat’s BS... without pointing out ANY of the supposed BS. It is quite literally “OMG! You’re correcting and contradicting our wild, baseless and completely unsupported speculation! You’re full of shit!”

And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:56:22 PM
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
That's not a nice thing to say about Jeff.


I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 21, 2020, 09:28:58 PM

Greetings!


BLM is a hateful, racist organization of Marxists seeking to overthrow and destroy the United States of America, and Western Civilization in general. I have seen plenty of their own videos, their own interviews, and their own quotes to know all about what they stand for and what their mission and goals are. Then, of course, there is also the litany of live-action videos of the BLM followers in action, attacking, burning, looting, and screaming in hate towards anyone that opposes them.


Fuck BLM. And Antifa. The anarchists, the terrorists, the Marxists, the fucking brain-dead zombies that worship them and gulp their hateful shit down like it is gospel from on high. The sooner they are all hunted down and crushed, the better we shall all be.


Ben Shapiro, Andrew Klavan, Michael Knowles, Matt Walsh, all of The Daily Wire, are certainly not confused about who BLM is. Neither is Glenn Beck, Dennis Prager, Dan Bongino, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram, Rush Limbaugh, Candace Owens, Brandon Tatum, Larry Elder, Terrence Popp, Tim Pool, Salty Cracker, or Pastor John MacArthur, of Grace Community Church. Let alone AG William Barr, the head of Homeland Security, or President Donald Trump.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:31:20 PM
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
So I'm a liberal? And I support BLM?

That's fucking insane. But it's nice to hear one of you actually finally come out and say it. I suspected it, but I was never quite sure, because your posts have been so void of content.

That's why this has been so fucking surreal. I'm being attacked by people who won't debate any points I make, and everything they say appears to come from bizarroworld because their responses seem to be based on assumptions about me that are completely assbackwards.

It proves my tribalism hypothesis, tho. You labeled me an enemy based on -- well, hell if I know what. Something trivial and irrelevant, certainly. And then you assigned me politics based on whatever dogwhistle you imagine you heard. You got them pretty much 100% wrong, BTW.

And to address your attempt at a point, I've never heard a single person say that BLM is pro-cop, even liberals. Liberals, or at least their progressive wing, are the ones screaming defund the police, and even the more moderate types are in full-on pander mode and don't dare contradict the narrative. So that entire argument is nonsense.

Also, I used Buzzfeed because they were cited by Charity Navigator. I know nothing about them beyond that, and don't care. And I've cited probably 20 or 30 sources, and MSN is one of the most trivial, supporting a minor aside, and something that's unlikely to be misreported because it's really just a statement by BLM of how they're spending money (which is hard to find, because they're as transparent as a brick). It's basically a press release, not an analysis or investigative reporting. So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 09:47:34 PM
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
So I'm a liberal? And I support BLM?

That's fucking insane. But it's nice to hear one of you actually finally come out and say it. I suspected it, but I was never quite sure, because your posts have been so void of content.

That's why this has been so fucking surreal. I'm being attacked by people who won't debate any points I make, and everything they say appears to come from bizarroworld because their responses seem to be based on assumptions about me that are completely assbackwards.

It proves my tribalism hypothesis, tho. You labeled me an enemy based on -- well, hell if I know what. Something trivial and irrelevant, certainly. And then you assigned me politics based on whatever dogwhistle you imagine you heard. You got them pretty much 100% wrong, BTW.

And to address your attempt at a point, I've never heard a single person say that BLM is pro-cop, even liberals. Liberals, or at least their progressive wing, are the ones screaming defund the police, and even the more moderate types are in full-on pander mode and don't dare contradict the narrative. So that entire argument is nonsense.

Also, I used Buzzfeed because they were cited by Charity Navigator. I know nothing about them beyond that, and don't care. And I've cited probably 20 or 30 sources, and MSN is one of the most trivial, supporting a minor aside, and something that's unlikely to be misreported because it's really just a statement by BLM of how they're spending money (which is hard to find, because they're as transparent as a brick). It's basically a press release, not an analysis or investigative reporting. So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.




The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:48:16 PM
And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
I'm not sure they're correct, I'm just reporting what I can find. But there's a lot of bad information out there, key among them idea that ActBlue is funneling money from BLM to Joe Biden. The so-called "smoking gun" of the DONATE button is based on a bad misunderstanding; it's just not a feasible mechanism.

That isn't a defense of BLM. I've pointed, endlessly, how they're a black hole for money. Nor does it absolve ActBlue; but as far as I can tell, their biggest sin is being too effective. They're figured out the secret sauce for getting lots of small donations from progressives, primarily to support Democratic political candidates, but also other kinds of progressive causes. This is especially important because of campaign finance limits, and it's something the Republicans lack, despite their attempt at mimicry with WinRed.

I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:48:53 PM
The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
The why did you quote my post? And why are you doing this? It makes zero sense to me.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 10:11:40 PM
The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
The why did you quote my post? And why are you doing this? It makes zero sense to me.


Because I'm on a phone at work and that is the quickest way to respond?


Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on September 22, 2020, 05:40:28 AM
So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 22, 2020, 08:33:54 AM
Enough with the bullshit about when a poster(s) disagree with you then you are "enemy" garbage.


Is this what it's come to when having a conversation one either agrees 1000% with the person or everyone else is the "enemy". If some here wanted an echo chamber why go to forums where one knows that the majority of the posters will either disagree and give push-back.


I know this place and it's posters are not the easiest to get along with sometimes yet your not the victim here. No one is forcing anyone or everyone to come here and post. No gun is being held at your head with the threat of death if one does not post here.


Either here or elsewhere one has to accept that sometimes posters won't agree with you on a topic and move on. Save the martyrdom and victim crap for those who are actually going through real suffering.


It's like seeing a 5 year old who does not get their way and rush off to their parents and saying "I'M TELLING". Grow a thick skin or go elsewhere.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 22, 2020, 11:02:26 AM
Honestly, at this point I don't really care. Trump is going to get another SCOTUS pick; the word is out that Romney will vote yes (I cannot help but wonder if someone passed him a note with Harry Reid's infamous response, when Reid was confronted about lying regarding Romney's tax returns: 'we won, didn't we?').


I also think it's very unlikely Sundown Joe will upset Trump. The Democrats have foolishly leashed their horses to the riots, and that will not make them popular no matter how many times they scream 'ORANGE MAN BAD'.


The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on September 22, 2020, 12:46:32 PM
And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
I'm not sure they're correct, I'm just reporting what I can find. But there's a lot of bad information out there, key among them idea that ActBlue is funneling money from BLM to Joe Biden. The so-called "smoking gun" of the DONATE button is based on a bad misunderstanding; it's just not a feasible mechanism.

That isn't a defense of BLM. I've pointed, endlessly, how they're a black hole for money. Nor does it absolve ActBlue; but as far as I can tell, their biggest sin is being too effective. They're figured out the secret sauce for getting lots of small donations from progressives, primarily to support Democratic political candidates, but also other kinds of progressive causes. This is especially important because of campaign finance limits, and it's something the Republicans lack, despite their attempt at mimicry with WinRed.

Yeah, I don’t think either of those organizations is good, but that doesn’t mean that therefore ActBlue is a giant funnel machine working under the mandate of the Democratic party. IIRC ActBlue started out as a way to help prop up progressive candidates and help them win out against Neo-Liberals, which make the core of the Democratic party—at least that was my impression of them years ago when I was on the progressive side. They aren’t there so much to help the Democratic party, but to help progressives get in, because there’s always been a schism between progressives and the Neo-Liberal establishment. Plus they pretty much report every cent they get—even small potato donations—to the Federal Election Commission. The idea that they’re working hand in hand with the Democratic party to funnel money and stuff just seems wrongheaded to me.

I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.

Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.

I tried to stay out of it at first, but it just made me feel like a hypocrite.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 22, 2020, 03:13:44 PM
Yeah, I don’t think either of those organizations is good, but that doesn’t mean that therefore ActBlue is a giant funnel machine working under the mandate of the Democratic party. IIRC ActBlue started out as a way to help prop up progressive candidates and help them win out against Neo-Liberals, which make the core of the Democratic party—at least that was my impression of them years ago when I was on the progressive side. They aren’t there so much to help the Democratic party, but to help progressives get in, because there’s always been a schism between progressives and the Neo-Liberal establishment. Plus they pretty much report every cent they get—even small potato donations—to the Federal Election Commission. The idea that they’re working hand in hand with the Democratic party to funnel money and stuff just seems wrongheaded to me.
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.

It seems to me that BLM supporters are strongly pro-Democrat. Even if Biden doesn't endorse BLM because they're too radical, BLM supporters are most certainly going to prefer Biden to Trump. I would think most BLM donors would not have any moral objections to their funds being used to help elect Democrats - especially progressive candidates but even mainstream ones over Republicans. As long as it's reported correctly and fits with the donor's wishes, it doesn't seem like a scandal to me.

I'd want to see evidence if there is a legal violation of regulations, but it seems like no one has been showing those.


I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.
Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.

I tried to stay out of it at first, but it just made me feel like a hypocrite.
I try to avoid any speculation about other poster's motivation. To my mind, the focus should be on evidence and position. I think Pat at least provided a lot of evidence (that I haven't gotten through yet), but most responses have been about a few offhand comments of his.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 22, 2020, 04:27:55 PM
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.



Being associated with a movement that has caused the destruction of black owned businesses,  the deaths of black people, and massive riots and looting might be a sticking point.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on September 22, 2020, 04:44:05 PM
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).
Naw you definitely did misunderstand Pat.   I'm thinking of starting a Black Lives Matter organization so I can get in on the cash grab.
The purpose of my BLM organization would be a fund to elect prosecutors who would commit to enforcing laws against burning, looting and rioting.
And of course I'm going to collect a very generous salary. :-)

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 23, 2020, 12:31:59 PM
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.
Being associated with a movement that has caused the destruction of black owned businesses,  the deaths of black people, and massive riots and looting might be a sticking point.
The point was about funding, not about the movement itself.

There is a broad spectrum of supporters for BLM, from evangelical churches to companies like IBM as well as many grassroots supporters. The supporters do not believe that BLM causes violence. Rather, they feel that the violence is a result of the racial tension caused by deaths in police custody - just like most anti-abortion advocates do not endorse or support the violence and terrorism associated with it.

Even if you disagree with the supporters, that doesn't make it a scandal that they donate money - any more than it would be a scandal if they vote. People with opposing views exist, and will vote, advocate, and donate money in accordance with their views.

The problem I have with hashtag movements like BLM is that overwhelmingly, it's just a litmus test of identity - not any specific policies. At this point, BLM is more organized than many other such movements. There is a platform created by organizers, but most supporters have never read that platform - and probably wouldn't agree with much of it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:08:07 PM
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:09:05 PM
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:52:51 PM

Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.
It's not a complete echo chamber, there are a few members of the valiant opposition, and a few people who don't neatly fit into boxes. But there has been a problem with dogpiling for a long while. I don't think it's deliberate, it's just a natural consequence when there's only one person speaking from one position, and a half a dozen speaking against it. That imbalance means the number of replies can get overwhelming, and on top of that there seems to be a wolfpack effect where the posters who gang up get more vicious because of the perceived moral support. That's why I generally don't respond to those solitary posters, or drop out of the discussion when a wolfpack starts to form. There's also been a growing tendency, in just the last month or two, toward rah-rah cheerleader posts, rather than substantive content. That probably just feeds the wolfpack tendencies. Since these all make it more likely that the people who aren't part of the dominant bloc will burn out and quit, it does have the tendency to make the place more of an echo chamber.

I'm not sure if there's a good solution. I seem to value free speech more than most on the board, so I'm not a fan of most of the obvious attempts to address it. I just occasionally engage in metadiscussions like this, in order to raise awareness, though I doubt it has much effect.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:59:16 PM
Is this what it's come to when having a conversation one either agrees 1000% with the person or everyone else is the "enemy". If some here wanted an echo chamber why go to forums where one knows that the majority of the posters will either disagree and give push-back.
If you're talking to me, you should quote me or refer to me by name. This passive aggressive dancing around doesn't help.

And if you are talking to me, I'm fine with opposition. You'll notice I haven't faded away. The problem is the complete lack of arguments. I'm just being randomly insulted, for no reason I can grok. That's boring. I want to have discussions with people who don't think like I do, and try to understand where they're coming from. Not these shadowgames of we hate you but we we won't tell you why. That's why I've been constantly bringing the discussion back on topic, and bringing up more details, information, and sources. I want people to dispute what I'm saying, because that's one of the best ways to refine and develop my own beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
There is a broad spectrum of supporters for BLM, from evangelical churches to companies like IBM as well as many grassroots supporters. The supporters do not believe that BLM causes violence. Rather, they feel that the violence is a result of the racial tension caused by deaths in police custody - just like most anti-abortion advocates do not endorse or support the violence and terrorism associated with it.
That's the public narrative, and there is definitely is a vocal minority and possibility a plurality who truly believe in the cause. But I'm not sure most of the ostensible supporters are true believers. A lot of businesses in areas that might suffer from riots put up signs in support of BLM, because they hope it will reduce the chances their shop will be looted or burned. And several larger companies have been targets of public shame campaigns for not being proactively anti-racist enough, which is sufficient to explain why a lot of other companies are making public statements of support. I don't doubt there are some true believers, but a lot of this is the virtue signaling/PR/marketing equivalent of Mafia protection rackets.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 23, 2020, 05:14:51 PM
Act Blue is a payment portal that is associated with liberal causes.  There are many payment portals that people are familiar with, like Kickstarter and GoFundMe.  If there is a BLM kickstarter, (and there are several (https://www.kickstarter.com/discover/advanced?ref=nav_search&term=blm)) it does not mean that money you pledge to The Scarlet Citadel (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/deepmagic/the-scarlet-citadel-a-5th-edition-dungeon-of-secrets?ref=discovery&term=dungeon) goes to support BLM decals.  They're different projects that all use the same funding site.  ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/) works in a similar way - there are approximately 15,000 causes/candidates that you can donate to via ActBlue.  A donation to Doug Jones isn't the same as a donation to Joe Biden and isn't the same as a donation to BLM.  But you can donate to ALL OF THEM if you want to.  Unlike Kickstarter, ActBlue is political - they're devoted to 'liberal' causes and candidates.  You cannot donate to Mitch McConnell or Donald Trump on ActBlue, but that doesn't mean that a donation to one candidate or cause automatically means you support EVERY candidate and cause, just like supporting one KickStarter doesn't mean you support EVERY Kickstarter. 


Hopefully that Analogy makes it sufficiently clear for the slow kids in the class.  You don't donate TO ActBlue, you donate THROUGH ActBlue and you have to designate the recipient BEFORE you donate. 


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 06:29:15 PM
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.


Hmmmm.....Well, being against community action groups started by Marxists who support violent protesting in order to build a new nation in the ashes of the old and being aided by politicians who should know better - yeah, I am against that. I guess that not spreading around burning, looting, and murder for Marxism is my agenda.


You've done it, Pat. You've found me out. Good job.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on September 23, 2020, 06:43:30 PM
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
You're not going to get me to feel bad about calling out the assholes that support escalating violence against others for their beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 06:44:50 PM
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.


Hmmmm.....Well, being against community action groups started by Marxists who support violent protesting in order to build a new nation in the ashes of the old and being aided by politicians who should know better - yeah, I am against that. I guess that not spreading around burning, looting, and murder for Marxism is my agenda.


You've done it, Pat. You've found me out. Good job.
I oppose them for quite a few more reasons than that, but I prefer to base it on facts, not falsehoods.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 23, 2020, 06:55:11 PM
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 07:09:00 PM
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Sigh.

The whole discussion for the past umpteenth pages has been about ActBlue, and their relationship with BLM. Jeff and others were saying ActBlue was funneling money donated to BLM to Biden, based on the DONATE button on BLM's homepage. That's false, it's not how ActBlue operates, it's a fundraising platform and payment processor. They passthrough the money donated to the specific charities or other organizations, it's not a general fund they shift around.

This last post is just Jeff trying to reframe the discussion to make it about him fighting a valiant fight against BLM, and implying that anyone who disagrees with him is supporting them. Which is absolute nonsense, all he's been doing is making disparaging remarks, while I've been trying to figure out the truth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 08:06:21 PM
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Sigh.

The whole discussion for the past umpteenth pages has been about ActBlue, and their relationship with BLM. Jeff and others were saying ActBlue was funneling money donated to BLM to Biden, based on the DONATE button on BLM's homepage. That's false, it's not how ActBlue operates, it's a fundraising platform and payment processor. They passthrough the money donated to the specific charities or other organizations, it's not a general fund they shift around.

This last post is just Jeff trying to reframe the discussion to make it about him fighting a valiant fight against BLM, and implying that anyone who disagrees with him is supporting them. Which is absolute nonsense, all he's been doing is making disparaging remarks, while I've been trying to figure out the truth.


Yup, because I am a White Knight and not just some opinionated asshole on a message board. Please, will someone help me lift this cross off of Pat? I think that it is more than he can bear.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 23, 2020, 08:20:34 PM
I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making (to reiterate, payments to BLM are not directly paid to the Biden campaign, even if both process through ActBlue) would concede that Pat is correct and if it APPEARED they were disagreeing on that point, they were at the very least being misunderstood or, and this might be a bridge too far, but admit they were wrong.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on September 23, 2020, 08:30:40 PM
I'm thinking of starting a Black Lives Matter organization so I can get in on the cash grab.
My idea was to have an All Blacks Lives Matter dedicated to help overthrow the evil Wallabies and Springboks who always try and oppress them and take their trophies away.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 23, 2020, 08:46:42 PM
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
You're not going to get me to feel bad about calling out the assholes that support escalating violence against others for their beliefs.


Let me know when you get around to that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 09:01:24 PM
I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making (to reiterate, payments to BLM are not directly paid to the Biden campaign, even if both process through ActBlue) would concede that Pat is correct and if it APPEARED they were disagreeing on that point, they were at the very least being misunderstood or, and this might be a bridge too far, but admit they were wrong.


No.


The information that Pat has provided about BLM and ActBlue just makes me feel more concerned about Burn Loot Murder because it demonstrates that a political action group only 7 years old already know how to game the system so that rubes who dig into it just help to obfuscate the money trail.


Obviously, they are being advised by experts.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 23, 2020, 11:58:58 PM
My idea was to have an All Blacks Lives Matter dedicated to help overthrow the evil Wallabies and Springboks who always try and oppress them and take their trophies away.
Finally, a charity worth supporting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 24, 2020, 12:18:22 AM
Pat, I don't think you're right about ActBlue simply because the media has been happy to report how much donation is going to Burn Loot Murder and its easy to see how much traffic is being aimed at their website, but the MSM never mentions the ActBlue connection, and then suddenly and magically BLAMMO, the Biden campaign reports MEGA-MILLIONS for a candidate who was far behind in fundraising for a year.

To me, something smells like shit and there is ZERO reason to trust any organization devoted to the destruction of America. The DNC is pushing their "remake America" agenda very loud and abundantly clear. "Burn the whole system down" is being touted by their voters and MSM surrogates.

Though it's funny you brought up Charity Navigator...an organization which exists because of how many big name non-profits were total scumbags stuffing their pockets. If Trump wins, it will be interesting to hear what the IRS has to say about BLM in a year or two. Of course, if Biden wins, I'm well aware no questions will ever be allowed.

However, I don't have the time to do a deep research into the financial shenanigans I suspect so I will not concede your point, but I won't argue against it either.


I want people to dispute what I'm saying, because that's one of the best ways to refine and develop my own beliefs.
And this is why Pat isn't a leftist, or a liberal, or whatever the communists are calling themselves now.

Plus he called us deplorable monsters a "wolfpack", so what's not to like?

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9c/98/2e/9c982e67d786961a6ca42b67a93fa885.jpg)


I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making
I think it would be nice if everyone who supports BLM gets deported.

When you find the genie's bottle, you can have your wish and I'll go next.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 02:43:46 AM
The information that Pat has provided about BLM and ActBlue just makes me feel more concerned about Burn Loot Murder because it demonstrates that a political action group only 7 years old already know how to game the system so that rubes who dig into it just help to obfuscate the money trail.


Obviously, they are being advised by experts.
You're lying by implication. Again. Nothing I posted is supposed to make you feel less concerned. The exact opposite, in fact. I've been pointing out their complete lack of transparency, and how we know basically nothing about their structure, where the money is going, or even how much they've raised. BLM is basically a giant black hole when it comes to money and accountability.

And yes, they have expert advisors. I've been pointing that out, as well. They have been fully adopted by what is perhaps the greatest fund raising machine developed in the last 20 years, ActBlue. Thousand Currents and now Tides have more than 30 years experience each in complying with the requirements of a 501(c)3 charity, and their sponsorships allow BLM to act and receive money as a 501(c)3 charity, while still being able to operate as a private for-profit corporation, with its far more limited disclosure requirements. The admission by their founders that they have Marxist training is a hell of lot to unpack regarding both their motives and methods, but at the least it means they're full versed in the methods of hardcore activism, and what the founders believe probably diverges massively from the popular narrative of what the movement is about.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 03:11:14 AM
Pat, I don't think you're right about ActBlue simply because the media has been happy to report how much donation is going to Burn Loot Murder and its easy to see how much traffic is being aimed at their website, but the MSM never mentions the ActBlue connection, and then suddenly and magically BLAMMO, the Biden campaign reports MEGA-MILLIONS for a candidate who was far behind in fundraising for a year.
I agree Biden's latest monthly fund raising total is really hard to explain. I can come up with rationales, like maybe the extreme leftists have finally given up on their quixotic desire for a more progressive candidate and rallied behind the only practical choice, or maybe it's a spillover from the MSM's unremitting push in favor of the riots, or maybe it's a bounce because Biden's finally showing his head after all those months where he was basically quarantined at home. But I don't find any of them satisfactory.

And I'm also very suspicious about the money going to BLM. With sycophantic front page attention for months from almost all major media outlets and their status as the cause celebre of the left, I'd expect they'd be raising tens or hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But the highest amount of spending I can find is the $6.5 million project reported in the MSN article. Most of that money should be coming through ActBlue, specifically ActBlue Charities. And since they're operating under the wing of 501(c)3 organizations, those totals should be publicly available. But I don't know enough about sponsorship to know where, when, or how that would be reported. Thousand Currents and Tides have annual revenues in the $4-6 million dollar range, which seems too low to include the donations to BLM. It could just be that there's been a big surge in donations, but they don't have to report it until the end of the year. But somebody should at least be bragging, or talking about what they plan to do with the windfall.

We're missing something. But ActBlue doesn't seem like a plausible mechanism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 24, 2020, 03:47:54 AM

You're lying by implication. Again.


OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 04:13:37 AM
OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
I explained it in the rest of the post. You keep trying to frame things as if you oppose BLM, and everyone who you disagree with supports them. Except nobody's defended BLM[1], especially not me.

[1] Except jhkim, but that's a recent post. He hasn't really been part of this discussion.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 24, 2020, 04:30:31 AM
OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
I explained it in the rest of the post. You keep trying to frame things as if you oppose BLM, and everyone who you disagree with supports them. Except nobody's defended BLM[1], especially not me.

[1] Except jhkim, but that's a recent post. He hasn't really been part of this discussion.


OK, I guess I apologise for hurting your feelings, because I am definitely not claiming that anyone I disagree with is a BLM supporter - that shit is all in your head.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on September 24, 2020, 11:10:57 AM
They're rioting again because an alleged drug dealer's ex-girlfriend got shot after her possible drug dealing boyfriend shot an officer in the femoral artery.


MSM's keeping a very tight lid on the details of how it all went down (including that they changed the no-knock to a knock in the field) so that tells you the fix is in.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 24, 2020, 04:03:18 PM
Several sites (including Cook Political (https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?)) have released demographic tools to see how partisanship/participation rates will impact the election. 


They also include an introduction to the tool in an article titled DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES SINCE 2016 ALONE COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEFEAT TRUMP (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/demographic-change-2016-alone-could-be-enough-defeat-trump)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 24, 2020, 06:50:30 PM
Several sites (including Cook Political (https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?)) have released demographic tools to see how partisanship/participation rates will impact the election. 


They also include an introduction to the tool in an article titled DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES SINCE 2016 ALONE COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEFEAT TRUMP (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/demographic-change-2016-alone-could-be-enough-defeat-trump)
Yeah.  That bastion of the alt-right neo-nazi movement, Tim Pool, pointed that one out yesterday...


It's based on a 92%-8% Black split and a 72%-28% Latino split...
but a 2-3% point flip for Trump in both categories gives him the win.
The question is "Do you think Biden is really polling that high?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVXV1kxn4aI&t=0s  (approx 5:45)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 25, 2020, 04:28:26 PM
Since 1860, no Republican has won the white house without winning Ohio. 


A trio of polls released this week show Biden leading in Ohio anywhere from +1 to +5.  FiveThirtyEight had previously shown this as 'leaning Republican', but it is now a 'toss-up' with a projected vote share of Biden by 1.  Real Clear Politics which uses a simple average of polls now shows Ohio as Biden +3.3.


As a result, the 'snake chart' on 538's website now shows Ohio as slightly blue, with Georgia as one of the states that Trump maintains an advantage.  Five Thirty Eight is projecting a 2% win for Trump in Georgia, 50.6% to 48.5%. 


In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5% points, while Clinton won the popular vote by 2%, indicating that Georgia is ~7% more Republican than the National vote.  Biden is currently polling at +6.9% versus President Trump.  While Georgia remains a perennial hopeful breakthrough for Democrats, it may end up being a real nail-biter.  Even Texas, which went for Trump by 10% in 2016 is polling within the margin of error. 


Of course, the real news lately is that Trump doesn't believe that he COULD lose in free and fair elections, and consequently, if he DOES LOSE it automatically implies that the elections were not free and fair so he has not agreed to abide by their results.  In fact, it has been confirmed that he has been working with the Republican legislature in PA to replace duly elected electors with a slate of electors loyal to him (disregarding and disenfranchising voters in PA in the process). 


But for some reason, on this site, I only ever hear of how Democrats are anti-Democratic. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 25, 2020, 04:41:52 PM

But for some reason, on this site, I only ever hear of how Democrats are anti-Democratic.
The party that wants more mail in voting and no voting IDs might know a thing or two about election fraud. See Al Franken in Minnesota, JFK in Illinois for examples.
Republicans shouldn't fraud either. No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 25, 2020, 05:14:50 PM
No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.


Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?  If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)? 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 25, 2020, 06:11:08 PM
Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?


At least don't get your truth from a talk show shill.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 25, 2020, 11:15:52 PM
Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?
If there is massive mail in voting, the fraud can be worse. the Postal Workers Union endorsed Biden but we should expect them to deliver votes perfectly without bias?


If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 
I gave examples which you ignored.


As to "without ID" lol then why do we need IDs for so many other things that we do? Bank accounts, driving, buying a gun, buying alcohol, getting a mortgage, etc., etc.


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 
Absolutely not. If they can't be bothered to vote, how can they be even remotely similar to an educated voter?
 They might as well press randomly in the ballot box.


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


New York Times, so unbiased. The FBI is deep state. Entrenched bureaucracies are more loyal to preserving the bureaucracy than party affiliation or the truth. Hence the nonsense the country endured for 2 years with the Russia dossier.

Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?
Not even worth responding to. Richard J. Daley famously said he got Kennedy the 1960 election with "found" ballots. There is no reason not to use ID in the voting process. Of course, these days they give IDs out to illegal immigrants so even that wouldn't matter unless we ensured only citizens voted.


Who is against voter ID and pushing mail in voting while also having the strictest lockdowns for COVID? The Democrats, of course.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 26, 2020, 03:01:31 PM
This was in May, and yet the numbers were already in the 4 digit range for cases of proven Voter Fraud. https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 26, 2020, 03:05:03 PM
No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.


Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?  If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?


How about registered voter ID, which would reduce voter fraud markedly? And actually no, ensuring everyone votes won't prevent voter fraud, as the most common form of voter fraud is voting multiple times in different states or districts...


https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america (https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 28, 2020, 04:59:02 AM
I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).
How about registered voter ID, which would reduce voter fraud markedly? And actually no, ensuring everyone votes won't prevent voter fraud, as the most common form of voter fraud is voting multiple times in different states or districts...

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america (https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america)
In a country of 328 million, 1285 cases is an extremely small fraction - and that is spread over 4 years and thus hundreds of elections (including state and national elections). That does not contradict the FBI finding. I support finding and prosecuting cases of fraud. But there's a huge difference between 1285 and the supposedly millions of illegal votes that many are claiming.

If the amount of actual fraud is anywhere close to this, then it's far more common for a valid voter to not have a valid ID - which could be more than a million people. (ref) (https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/) The effect of the law here is to put an additional bureaucratic hurdle and cost for such people to vote. Unequal bureaucratic hurdles decreases voter turnout.

I would say that it is more a problem with the existing American ID systems than anything. The government should really issue all citizens an ID, rather than making ID a privilege that you have to jump through bureaucratic hurdles and pay money to obtain. However, given our existing wacky ID system, then most of the voter ID laws cause more change by making it more difficult for a few valid citizens than reducing fraud. (Especially since not all forms of fraud are prevented by voter ID.)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 28, 2020, 08:39:03 AM
In a country of 328 million, 1285 cases is an extremely small fraction - and that is spread over 4 years and thus hundreds of elections (including state and national elections). That does not contradict the FBI finding. I support finding and prosecuting cases of fraud. But there's a huge difference between 1285 and the supposedly millions of illegal votes that many are claiming.

If the amount of actual fraud is anywhere close to this, then it's far more common for a valid voter to not have a valid ID - which could be more than a million people. (ref) (https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/) The effect of the law here is to put an additional bureaucratic hurdle and cost for such people to vote. Unequal bureaucratic hurdles decreases voter turnout.
That's the one's we've caught, not the total number.

Quote
I would say that it is more a problem with the existing American ID systems than anything. The government should really issue all citizens an ID, rather than making ID a privilege that you have to jump through bureaucratic hurdles and pay money to obtain. However, given our existing wacky ID system, then most of the voter ID laws cause more change by making it more difficult for a few valid citizens than reducing fraud. (Especially since not all forms of fraud are prevented by voter ID.)
One, the federal government lacks a mandate for such. Most states have easy to get photo IDs anyways even if you're poor (and frankly, if you're not willing to haul your fat ass down to the building to GET the ID? I'm not certain you should be voting).


Two, Democrats lose their marbles when photo ID is brought up. It's like they're worried about something...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 28, 2020, 08:56:25 AM
I don't consider the number of proving cases of fraud to be useful in this discussion.  It is extremely difficult in most jurisdictions where the fraud is occurring to get the DA to prosecute--even assuming you can get the relevant authorities to pursue enough of a case for the DA to have a shot.  If you do so, you are unlikely to get a conviction.  Yeah, the corrupt people that are doing the fraud are the people in power and you expect us to take lack of convictions as critical to the discussion?  That's taking disingenuous to a new level. 

Here's a fact:  Nowhere gets 100% voter participation.  Here's another fact:  There are almost 400 documented cases in the last few years where a registration board reported voting that exceeded 100% of the registered voters.  Ergo, massive fraud was committed in those areas.  The lack of convictions proves my point above.  There's a lot more that push right up to that 100% number but are mathematically literate enough to not quite go over.  That's not even counting systematically removed votes, such as the multiple times where boards have not counted military ballots in a close election.  (No, I'm not talking the usual case where absentees are not counted if the total number is not enough to change the count.  See 2000 Florida.)

Note that the "registered voter commits fraud" is a tiny percentage of the fraud.  Much of it is illegal aliens voting as non-citizens, but even more is likely the so called "stuffed" ballot boxes, though what constitutes "stuffed" is a little more technically tricky now than when the term was coined.  As with the 2016 Michigan recount, when they stopped the recount when they discovered that the vote tallies in certain areas vastly inflated the number of ballots in the box.  That is, it wasn't that a group of people conspired to make fraudulent votes but rather that the election monitoring officials simply lied about the count.  A classic case of Stalin's voting statement.

There is a deep history of voting fraud in this country, going back to at least 1840's Florida.   Miami-Dade was producing the numbers "needed" even back then.  Some federal investigators ended up in the swamp and never came out again over that one.  Yep, it goes back that far.  It hasn't been all one party, but it has been mostly one party.  Most of the Republican fraud is in the 1870-1890 range, notable for almost complete, sustained power over a lot of areas.  Power corrupts.  Democrats have absolute power in a lot of places for a long time, and it happens to correspond very tightly with those 100%+ voter "turnout" areas.
So let's cut to the chase and lay off the disingenuous crap.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 28, 2020, 09:40:37 AM
Nothing to see here, folks!

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/ (https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 28, 2020, 11:02:18 AM
Nothing to see here, folks!

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/ (https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/)
That bitch needs to be put on the next flight back to her hometown. Posthaste.


Go ahead, call me a racist. She's as dirty as any Chicago Dem. Did they ever untangle who she was actually married to and when?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 28, 2020, 11:21:26 PM
Did they ever untangle who she was actually married to and when?
No, as an Islamic female Democrat of color, she has immunity to the law.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 28, 2020, 11:52:02 PM

Greetings!


"You get in the van, and they give you cash." From the Project Veritas article that Brad posted. Thank you, Brad!


Fucking scum. Illhan Omar, I've always wondered who the fuck put her into power? They are all corrupt, greedy Marxists. I hope the Federal authorities arrest her, and send her to prison for many, many years. Harsh and unforgiving. She's a fucking traitor and a disgrace to the sincere foreign immigrants that come to this country seeking a better life. Her and all of the fucking "Squad" are a bunch of filthy, diseased rats. All of them are Marxists and Kool-Aid guzzling frauds.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 29, 2020, 01:15:31 PM
Isn't the penalty for treason (if her actions are construed as such) still death?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on September 30, 2020, 02:35:40 AM
Isn't the penalty for treason (if her actions are construed as such) still death?


For TREASON? Yes and no: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381)
For SEDITION? No: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2384 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2384)


My best guess is they would have to prove her being in Congress is to Damage/Overthrow the U.S. Government, funding or working directly with those the U.S. is currently at war with (War On Terror != Declared 'legal' War), and/or directly being influenced by Foreign Legal Entities outside of U.S. Jurisdiction which are known Hostile Actors to The U.S. Government and/or it's People.


My best guess is: They ship her out to be punished by another country by claiming Citizenship Fraud (Best case scenario - worst case is: Nothing Happens).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Slipshot762 on September 30, 2020, 06:29:26 PM
In my 40 years of life everytime i go down to the church to vote you have to show ID even though the workers know you personally and find yourself in a mass of binders and sign the affidavit thing before you get to touch the voting machine. i dont trust mail in ballots and i wont use one, hell or high water, covid or no i will vote in person.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Joey2k on September 30, 2020, 07:05:05 PM
1285 cases doesn't mean 1285 fraudulent votes, right?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Tanin Wulf on September 30, 2020, 09:13:14 PM
Correct. It means 1285 incidents investigated. That means the number of fraudulent votes was probably far less as the investigation most likely turned up a reason of, "I'm a dumbass and forgot I had already done this," from the voter more often than, "I tried to vote twice to steal the election."
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 01, 2020, 12:05:02 AM
Chewbacca vs the Swedish Chef


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 01, 2020, 01:47:55 AM
My favorite part of the debate was when Trump started singing "Throw the Leftist down the well so my people can be free!" and we all sang along at home.

My second favorite part was when Biden snarked about beating Bernie, disavowed universal healthcare, and then disavowed the Green New Deal.