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Fan Forums => The RPGPundit's Own Forum => Topic started by: deadDMwalking on July 17, 2020, 04:22:33 pm

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 17, 2020, 04:22:33 pm
The non-Partisan Cook Political Report released an electoral map (https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings071420.pdf?) based on how they rate each state.  They currently rate 279 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Democrat and 187 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Republican.  Compared to Real Clear Politics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html) which includes Missouri and Texas as toss-ups, the Cook Political report is assigning them to Trump, along with Iowa and Ohio.  Even with that, winning the 72 electoral votes listed as 'toss-up' (which is comprised of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as a Maine district) Biden would win 279 to 259.  It would require Trump to run the table and poach at least one large State from the Lean Democrat column.  

Current polls in the 'toss-up' states are unfavorable to Trump (polling numbers from 538's polling average):

Arizona (Biden +2.6%)
Florida (Biden +6.8%)
Georgia (Biden +1.0%)
North Carolina (Biden +2.9%)

Even Ohio, which is listed as Lean Republican and was included with Trump's electoral totals is polling with Biden at +2.2%
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RPGPundit on July 17, 2020, 05:31:35 pm
It is interesting, but to say that any polling company is "non-partisan" is disingenuous. Considering that the vast majority of pollsters are sociologists and these are 96+% hard-left Democrats, it makes all polls inherently difficult to think of as reliable.

However, I DO agree that we have to be worried about this. That we can't just blindly assume that Trump is going to win and the Polls are lies. I understand why we would think that, because of 2016, The "Hillary has a 96% chance of winning!" Year where pollsters showed themselves for the blatant partisan hacks they really were. But an excess of confidence is extremely dangerous. We could be the ones in the bubble right now. And the volatility of this year is very hard to analyze.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on July 18, 2020, 07:55:53 am
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 18, 2020, 10:06:34 pm
If you're interested in betting on the election, I would start with Sports Geek (https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sportsbooks/political/).  They have links to legal betting sites and recommendations.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 19, 2020, 01:28:51 am
Your gloating won't age well, not only because the polls can't be trusted but because currently your fellow travelers are doing everything in their power to re-elect Trump. But you lefties never learn.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 19, 2020, 05:47:55 am
November is ages away from now in political terms. Biden doesn't even have a VP, neither party has hosted their convention and there have been zero debates. All of these are major factors and they haven't occurred yet.

However, the MSM narrative is even more naked than in 2016. Everything is about demoralizing Trump supporters to keep them from them from voting and assuring the GenZ democrats they're about to win bigly so they vote for Dementia JoJo.

Considering the disastrous track records states had counting votes during the primaries, its possible it might be a week after the election before we have a winner. Voting irregularities, or at least accusations, will be flying fast and furious from all sides.

The only "sure thing" is the country will be further torn apart in November and beyond.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 19, 2020, 02:20:06 pm
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.  

I think a narrative that Trump can't win is potentially counterproductive for Democrats.  The importance of EVERY VOTER making their opinion known is crucial.  Toward that end, I'm in favor of increasing access to absentee ballots and increasing vote security by using paper ballots (having a paper trail) in the event there are irregularities.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 04:05:08 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1140668
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.


Ah, yes! The good old "if the woman who barely got 1% of the total vote didn't exist $Hillary would have won" narrative.

Cuz Jill voters are totally interchangeable with $Hill voters, and there's no way that everyone who voted for Jill absolutely HATED $Hillary and would never have voted for her anyway. At least some of them must have been democratic hopefuls who just fell under the spell of Hippie Grandma and were led astray by her relative good looks despite her age and forgot to vote for the warmongering corporate candidate who stood against everything the average Green voter would believe in. There's NO way most of those people were #BernieOrJill voters who had already made up their minds NEVER to vote for the Queen of Warmongers well before election day and specifically made their way to the polls to tell Democrats that they could go fuck themselves. There HAS to be a way they would have voted for a neocon in liberal clothing instead.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Doc Sammy on July 19, 2020, 04:11:45 pm
Quote from: Mjollnir;1140482
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.

I highly doubt that.Trump and Biden both have issues with enthusiasm right now but Biden's enthusiasm is completely non-existent while Trump's enthusiasm is depressed and with cancel culture at a fever pitch, it's difficult to tell how much of that is an actual lack of enthusiasm and how much is a lack of visible enthusiasm out of fear of being targeted by some SJW on social media AKA a silent majority

We won't know until November and Biden hasn't even picked a goddamn fucking running mate yet. I'm not making any predictions or giving any ballpark guesses until Joe Biden has a running mate for Vice President or we get a presidential debate on TV, whichever comes first.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on July 19, 2020, 04:41:00 pm
6000 people turned out to the rally in Tulsa despite covid and domestic terrorists attacking attendees.  There's continuous Trump boat rallies on both coasts.  There was that big pro Trump, pro Police march in New York recently.  Trump is shattering Primary records in terms of number of votes.  Republicans are outregistering Democrats in most battlefield states.  Blacks are turning away from Biden or switching to Trump or Kanye.  Latinos are turning towards Trump (especially in Miami -- hmm wonder why).  Universities won't be open which means dipshit student votes will be way down.

Looks good to me.

Luckily up here in Soviet Canuckistan the Conservative Party leadership race saw a massive surge in registrations and even my hippie-dippie sister is starting to get fed up with Baron von Fancy Socks.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 04:51:19 pm
It doesn't matter who wins. Everybody will lose.

I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 05:42:48 pm
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140685
I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.

Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on July 19, 2020, 06:00:53 pm
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

To make them pay for the wall that we no longer need?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 06:10:14 pm
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

Colonialism knows no bounds. smfh
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 06:14:18 pm
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?


To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.

Also, pre-empt China's world domination plot.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 06:21:19 pm
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140697
To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.
The same effective way America managed to stop the Taliban and Isis. Except also giving the Taliban Tickets into the USA.

Quote
Also, pre-empt China's world domination plot.
There can be more done but that would require a hard 'cold war' type announcement. Not a good position to do that now.

I appreciate your healthy skepticism but at times black pills become just blindness inducers.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on July 19, 2020, 06:35:36 pm
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140697
To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.


OR, they could, you know... legalize drugs and let the "problem" sort itself out. Then Central and South American countries could boost their economies by cultivating legal drugs and selling them to the USA, negating the need for illegal immigration in general.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 19, 2020, 07:25:57 pm
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140685
It doesn't matter who wins. Everybody will lose.

I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.


I'm a Mexican and I approve this message.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: BoxCrayonTales on July 19, 2020, 08:10:48 pm
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140699
The same effective way America managed to stop the Taliban and Isis. Except also giving the Taliban Tickets into the USA.


There can be more done but that would require a hard 'cold war' type announcement. Not a good position to do that now.

I appreciate your healthy skepticism but at times black pills become just blindness inducers.


There's nothing healthy about it. The political parties are cancerous now. They're killing America while China and Russia circle us like vultures.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: danskmacabre on July 19, 2020, 08:13:45 pm
I'm not an American and don't live there.
However from the feel I get from conversations and how actually events are panning out, unless Trump voters are simply too afraid to go out and vote, then Trump will will 2020, for better or worse.

One thing is for sure, the impact of Trump winning or Biden winning in November is going to effect all of the west to some degree and I think dramatically in the USA.
With this and the Corona Virus still affecting us all, it's probably a good idea to have a bug out plan "just in case"  

I'm not saying some some of apocalyptic event or general collapse of civilization, but things seem like they're getting really serious and it hasn't peaked yet.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on July 19, 2020, 08:14:17 pm
Quote from: KingCheops;1140682
Baron von Fancy Socks.


I love that. It is right up there with Governor Party Tits. Kudos!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 08:44:35 pm
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140710
The political parties are cancerous now.
NOW? When where they ever not cancerous?
Quote
They're killing America while China and Russia circle us like vultures.
You're grossly overestimating both China and Russia.

Not that the USA is infallible but I see its core issues as social issues, with the political parties being more expressions of said issues than in reverse.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 19, 2020, 10:08:57 pm
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

I'm not a fan of "enthusiasm as indicator" because Hillary couldn't fill a high school gym and still almost won.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shrieking Banshee on July 19, 2020, 11:18:11 pm
Quote from: Spinachcat;1140726
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

Again Id rather it be in the open than hidden. This was always gonna happen this way one way or the other. And the way that happening right now is one of the better ways.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: danskmacabre on July 20, 2020, 12:58:46 am
Quote from: Spinachcat;1140726
Parties have never been good for America, but as the culture war becoming synonymous with political parties, now we're talking un-healable divisions, even within friends, families and most importantly, gaming groups. That's sad.  

Yeah I agree. I do restrict conversations with certain friends.
Whilst I consider myself more or less "Centre Left", a few of my friends IMO have gone more extreme left and some areas of discission are off limits by unspoken consent.
It does train friendships somewhat at times, but I've working on changing my circle of friends over the last year or so with people who are more moderate or just more open to discussion with varying opinions.

As to family, well, I'm somewhat of a black sheep in my family anyway, so no loss there with a few exceptions with those who can remain calm in a discussion.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on July 20, 2020, 11:58:58 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1140586
If you're interested in betting on the election, I would start with Sports Geek (https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sportsbooks/political/).  They have links to legal betting sites and recommendations.

Many thanks

Quote from: Doc Sammy;1140677
I highly doubt that.Trump and Biden both have issues with enthusiasm right now but Biden's enthusiasm is completely non-existent while Trump's enthusiasm is depressed and with cancel culture at a fever pitch, it's difficult to tell how much of that is an actual lack of enthusiasm and how much is a lack of visible enthusiasm out of fear of being targeted by some SJW on social media AKA a silent majority

We won't know until November and Biden hasn't even picked a goddamn fucking running mate yet. I'm not making any predictions or giving any ballpark guesses until Joe Biden has a running mate for Vice President or we get a presidential debate on TV, whichever comes first.

Biden doesn't need enthusiasm, he has demographics, democrats galvanized against orange man (who is very, vary bad), and right wingers have been systematically purged from social media for "election interference". The meme warriors that did so much to get Trump elected have taken their ball and gone home. Trump hasn't made good on any of the promises that motivated his voters. When the BLM riots kicked off, and kept getting worse, he has nowhere to be found.

Trump's win in 2020 was a long shot. He was going up against one of the most hated politicians in American history and still barely won. I have no doubt Trump will trounce Biden hilariously in the debates, but it won't matter. Too many of the people he needs to come out are tired of "winning" and tired of his bloviating, empty BS. Even the Q-tards ore beginning to distrust the plan. If I'm wrong then by all means ridicule me on Nov 8th, but I don't know if Biden can lose if he tries.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 20, 2020, 03:36:10 pm
Quote from: Mjollnir;1140821
Many thanks



Biden doesn't need enthusiasm, he has demographics, democrats galvanized against orange man (who is very, vary bad), and right wingers have been systematically purged from social media for "election interference". The meme warriors that did so much to get Trump elected have taken their ball and gone home. Trump hasn't made good on any of the promises that motivated his voters. When the BLM riots kicked off, and kept getting worse, he has nowhere to be found.

Trump's win in 2020 was a long shot. He was going up against one of the most hated politicians in American history and still barely won. I have no doubt Trump will trounce Biden hilariously in the debates, but it won't matter. Too many of the people he needs to come out are tired of "winning" and tired of his bloviating, empty BS. Even the Q-tards ore beginning to distrust the plan. If I'm wrong then by all means ridicule me on Nov 8th, but I don't know if Biden can lose if he tries.

Except this flies right in the face of 'record breaking Republican primary turnout, even in states where Trump's primary is unopposed'.

I'm sorry, you can't have BOTH these things be true. Either the Silent Majority is loading the mother of all 'fuck you's' into the electoral artillery chamber, or they're not even in the ballpark.

Worse, Biden is not going to excite the base. He's the Democrat answer to Jeb Bush. He's already locked himself into a tight spot by declaring a woman POC will be his VP nominee, which limits his options drastically. His propensity to lose his train of thought after it's left the station is just going to make it even more bizarre.

On the upshot, Trump will get to practice making his funny faces during the debates when Biden suddenly veers off into la-la land and starts talking about Eskimo double rainbows and how not voting for Biden means you're not really black.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on July 22, 2020, 06:47:58 am
You guys scare me.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 24, 2020, 04:38:39 pm
From the Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/senate/senate-overview/almost-100-days-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate), with 100 days to the election, Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate.  

The current composition of the Senate is 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats).  In order to win the Senate, the Democrats would need to pick up 4 seats, or 3 seats plus the Presidency.  There is an expectation that Doug Jones of Alabama loses his seat, so in order to pick up the ~5 seats Democrats need.

It Appears that Arizona and Colorado will elect Democrats; Mark Kelly is an extremely strong candidate running against an appointed Senator (she lost her race to the Senate) and polls show Kelly with a 7-10% lead.  Colorado is a state that Clinton won, and the state seems to have moved left in the intervening 4 years; there have been few recent polls but Hickenlooper had a double-digit lead against the Incumbent since he won the primary.  

North Carolina and Iowa are both showing a Democrat lead.  Montana has a popular former governor running for the Senate with a virtual tie with the incumbent; although it is a ruby-red state, it looks like it will a close election.  Susan Collins in Maine is very vulnerable, polling behind her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.  

The most vulnerable Democrat is in Michigan - where polls show Democratic incumbent Gary Peters leading John James by 9%.  

Summary: Democrats are defending 12 seats is 'solid D' territory, 1 in Lean D territory, and one in Lean R territory that they're likely to lose.  Pickup opportunities for the Democrats include Arizona (rated lean-D), Colorado, Ga (1 of the 2), Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina.  Even in 'Lean Republican' territory (Georgia's OTHER election and Kansas) there are signs that it may end up being more competitive.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 24, 2020, 09:21:06 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Except this flies right in the face of 'record breaking Republican primary turnout, even in states where Trump's primary is unopposed'.


That was ages ago in the pre-BLM world.

That was back when Trump supporters believed the world would return to normal where Trump could get the economy restarted and revving back into gear, but Trump underestimated the evil of the MSM and governors who manipulated the shamdemic to drown the economy in the shitter.


Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Either the Silent Majority is loading the mother of all 'fuck you's' into the electoral artillery chamber, or they're not even in the ballpark.


Exactly true.

Nobody knows if the Silent Majority exists...or what they will actually do. No poll can be trusted because the MSM is nothing but anti-American lying filth and even FOX news have been testing out their new "leftist-lite" approach.

Also, the Silent Majority has that name because they don't vote, so we would have to see some monstrous new voter registrations for Republicans to believe they're even motivated to get off their couch.

Worse, even if the Silent Majority exists and leaps into the fray, it might not matter against the left's election fraud. States with mail-in voting might as well be counted as Biden wins. Any state where there's "ballot harvesting" operation is already lost.


Quote from: Ghostmaker;1140850
Worse, Biden is not going to excite the base.


His base knows Biden's not going to be the power in the White House. They aren't voting for Biden. He's just the name on the ticket and won't be more than a figurehead, if he's even kept around. Democrats are voting for liberal and Marxist control and destruction of the nation...and they are VERY motivated to make that happen.  

In fact, Biden babbling nonsense at the debates might even help him. He doesn't matter to his voters, but Trump voters might see Biden drooling and mistakenly believe there's nobody dumb enough for vote for Biden when we most certainly have an entire nation full of worthless morons excited to destroy everything past Americans sacrificed to ensure.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 25, 2020, 08:12:48 am
Quote from: Spinachcat;1141658
His base knows Biden's not going to be the power in the White House. They aren't voting for Biden. He's just the name on the ticket and won't be more than a figurehead, if he's even kept around. Democrats are voting for liberal and Marxist control and destruction of the nation...and they are VERY motivated to make that happen.  

In fact, Biden babbling nonsense at the debates might even help him. He doesn't matter to his voters, but Trump voters might see Biden drooling and mistakenly believe there's nobody dumb enough for vote for Biden when we most certainly have an entire nation full of worthless morons excited to destroy everything past Americans sacrificed to ensure.
That's pretty fucking sad, you know. Not you, but the fact that Democrats are basically electing a meat puppet.

Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Aglondir on July 25, 2020, 09:35:21 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1141686
Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.

We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 28, 2020, 10:14:59 am
The Cook Report adjusted it's rating of Florida from 'toss-up' to 'Lean Democrat'.  In my original post, it was polling significantly more friendly toward Biden than the other 'toss up' states in large part because Biden appears to be doing much better with seniors than any recent Democratic candidates.  

Real Clear Politics has a tool (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html) that lets you create what you think is the most likely electoral map.  On the 'base map', Biden starts with 222 electoral votes to Trump's 115.  201 Electoral votes are listed as toss-up including Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia and, of course, Florida (as well as one district in Maine and one district in Nebraska).  

If Biden winds Florida without a single 'toss-up state', he would have 251 electoral votes.  Winning Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) would give him the victory, or winning basically any two states besides Nevada/Iowa (6 electoral votes each).  For example, winning Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan would put Biden at 277 electoral votes.  Trump winning every other battleground state wouldn't make a difference.  

Effectively, that puts Florida into 'must-win' territory.  It has been reported that internal polls that Trump relies on 'in aggregate' show him with a smaller share of the electorate in states he won handily - ie, winning Texas by 5 points when in 2016 he won by 9.  A shift of 4 points toward the Democratic opponent.  A universal 4% shift compared to 2016 results would shift the following States from the Republican to the Democratic candidate:

Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.  

The National Polls of voters at the end of 2016 showed Clinton with a 2-4% lead (and a negative trend, with late breaking news about the FBI reopening an investigation); she ended up wining the Popular vote by 2%.  If the electorate were exactly like the 2016 electorate (ignoring any demographic changes, or 'enthusiasm changes'), Trump would need to cut the popular vote lead down below 4% - that would potentially allow him to lose only Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which would result in 269 Electoral votes for Biden; Trump would have to win NV, AZ, TX, IA, MO, FL, GA, NC, OH, NH, ME2.  

With 98 days to go until the election, this is just a snapshot, but it may explain why the White House is now endorsing a mask policy, and why the White House asked the governor in Tennessee to close bars (he is not doing so).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on July 29, 2020, 10:14:11 am
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F@€#ed and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 29, 2020, 02:47:55 pm
Quote from: Chris24601;1142236
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F*d and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.


I spend a fair bit of time evaluating the polls.  There are known differences between 'all adults', versus 'registered voters' versus 'likely voters'.  As you move from one to the other, the electorate becomes more Republican leaning, and the polls reflect that.  The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/upshot/polls-political-party-republicans.html) addressed this in an article today asking: Are the Polls Missing Republican Voters?

The article is worth a read, but here's one quote:

Quote

Mr. Trump's problem wasn't the number of people who said they voted for him last time: It was that only 86 percent of those who said they voted for him last time said they would do so again. Perhaps there's a way the poll could have the right number of voters who said they voted for Mr. Trump last time, but not this time. It would have to be an awfully specific form of polling error.


Building on that, Politico (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/28/letter-to-washington-scranton-white-working-class-381320) had an article yesterday visiting with people in Scranton, PA - the type of town that you'd expect Trump to do well with.  Once again, the article is worth a read; for Trump to raise his status in the polls, it would be helpful if he could motivate long-time non-voters to start voting.  In 2016, 43% of non-voters were whites without a college degree.  That's a huge potential source of support.  From what I see in a lot of reporting is that a lot of people felt that Trump would change the system (drain the swamp) and that he's seen as corrupt.  If you want to win elections, you either need to get the people who voted for you last time to vote for you again, or you need to find a new group of people to vote for you.  It looks like Trump has lost a lot of support from people that voted for him in 2016.  It may be that Biden is simply not as distasteful as Hillary Clinton to many voters.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on July 29, 2020, 03:17:52 pm
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 29, 2020, 03:35:18 pm
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!
Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative.


I don't think this is true, and most 'poll of polls' have been accurate, especially on a National level.  In 2016, the 'big miss' was a failure to recognize a growing divergence between whites with and without college degrees.  Including educational attainment when calculating projected vote share is important and is being included.  There's a measure of uncertainly in polls, and most people are very bad at recognizing uncertainty.  If a poll indicates a tied race (as a Monmouth poll of Adults in Georgia did), the uncertainty of +/-5% means that Trump winning by 5 or losing by 5 are all within the margin of error.  

Here's a Five Thirty Eight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) article about the accuracy of polls.

Here's a CNN article (https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/19/politics/2018-midterm-elections-good-year-polls/index.html) evaluating the accuracy of the 2018 mid-term polls.  

Polls are not perfect, and nothing is a substitute for actually having an election.  They still remain a useful (and largely accurate) tool used by all the candidates.


Edit - Here's a Pro Trump (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/opinions/swing-voters-midwest-trump-support-thau/index.html) article on CNN talking about his strong support among so-called 'Obama/Trump' voters.  

In the article, the focus is on how 2/3 of these voters still ardently support Trump.  My take away is that 1/3 of these types of Trump voters have moved away from him - considering his narrow margin of victory in some of these states, it is a loss of support he can ill-afford.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 29, 2020, 03:41:56 pm
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on July 29, 2020, 03:49:43 pm
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Greetings!

Hey there, GeekyBugle! Oh no, no hubris on my part. Of course, I will be voting for certain. Everyone should. This election is a very crucial election. I would like to think that after all these riots, the Democrat mayors and governors cheering mobs on, cities burning, police departments being defunded, crime going way up, businesses being burned, and people being murdered in the street--the majority of Americans will have had enough of this bullshit, and vote to re-elect President Trump. Thus, I hope he wins in a landslide victory.

If Biden wins the election, this country is fucked.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on July 29, 2020, 03:53:52 pm
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I think the most likely outcome is an electoral college landslide for Trump.  But there are other outcomes that are certainly possible, and not just the 1% chance territory, either.  What this does to the popular vote, I've got no clue.  The agitation is going to produce some enthusiasm and some apathy, especially in states not viewed as close.  Hang onto your hats, it is a bumpy (or bumpier) ride from here on out.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on July 29, 2020, 11:48:25 pm
The latest stats on Biden's marxist anti-fracking energy plan are that it will cost us 19 million jobs, mostly in the swing states President Trump carried in 2016 (650k jobs in PA, 825k in WI and MI, several hundred thousand in OH, and the list goes on).

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.

2020 is 2016 turned up a notch because the Leftists have had four years to bake in their toxic TDS juices and can't even comprehend that most people don't hate as much as they do.

So they throw out fake polls where they say "Likely Voters", but weight it with just 23% Republican turnout and 50% Democrat turnout because the important thing isn't the poll's accuracy... it's to sell the narrative that Biden had it in the bag until President Trump stole the election... cue Mueller Investigation and Impeachment 2.0 because these psychopaths will do ANYTHING; lie, cheat, steal, destroy lives; whatever it takes to get the power they crave.

They'd rather be kings of a garbage dump where their will is law than be fellow citizens in a wealthy prosperous country where others are free to ignore them.

And I'll tell you this too... the Insane Left would NOT be pushing to keep everyone socially isolated, the riots, shutting down opposing voices online, and for national mail-in voting if they actually thought they were winning. If you're winning you don't rock the boat, you let things proceed as normal... you certainly don't throw society into chaos and then pray popular sentiment swings your way.

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars. The cognitive dissonance required to be a Leftist is phenomenal. You literally have to pretend not to know things... like Antifa/BLM being radical Marxist hate groups who have burned and destroyed more black businesses in 30 days than the KKK managed in 30 years.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 08:26:46 am
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Oh, I'm sure Trump could lose. But it would require a bit more than half assed polls and dangerhairs screaming.

See, here's the kicker: most people just want stability. In some cases, even more than justice. If you don't make the case that shaking things up is absolutely necessary for justice, people will not cotton onto your message even if you're imitating Eric Andre screaming at a fence.

Biden is a ridiculously bad candidate. Supposedly his VP choice will be Kamala 'Roundheels' Harris, whose ascent in power was lubricated by her willingness to get plowed to get ahead. YEAH I WENT THERE, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Great picks, Dems: a guy whose psyche may be fragmenting in real time, with his running mate garnering no respect for anyone due to her cosplaying as the Lincoln Bedroom.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 10:26:10 am
Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.


There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.  Nobody wants London's 1952 killer smog (https://today.tamu.edu/2016/11/14/researchers-solve-mystery-of-historic-1952-london-fog-and-current-chinese-haze/#:~:text=Visibility%20was%20reduced%20to%20only,than%20150%2C000%20had%20been%20hospitalized.).


Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars.


Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania) released a poll on Friday showing Biden with a 9 point lead in Michigan, a 13 point lead in Minnesota, and Pennsylvania by 11 points.  A month ago, a Fox poll showed Trump and Biden tied in Texas (Biden 45, Trump 44).  

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  

Polls make their methodology available for review.  A certain amount of variation is to be expected - not every sample is PERFECTLY created, but that's why running many different polls tends to give accurate data.  Likewise, tracking polls (polls repeated every month) are likely to identify trends - increase or decrease in support, even if they're not EXACTLY accurate.  Trump's problem with polls isn't that 'some are liars' - his problem with polls is that they are consistently painting a picture of a very narrow path to reelection.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 10:42:49 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355
There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.

True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on July 30, 2020, 11:14:38 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  


None of them because they are designed to shape thought, not report it.

...except maybe the internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns.
Given the 2016 election, I'm not sure that would even be accurate anymore.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:31:40 pm
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html)

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-presented-with-grim-internal-polling-showing-him-losing-to-biden/2020/04/29/33544208-8a4e-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html)

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.

Quote
Even Fox News, a loyal Trump ally that the president watches for hours inside the White House, interpreted his proposal as a sign the president is flailing.

"It is a fragrant and flagrant expression of his current weakness," Fox News politics editor Chris Stirewalt said during a Fox News broadcast Thursday morning. "A person who is in a strong position would never, never suggest anything like that. So Trump may be making a tactical error here by further telegraphing his weak position in the polls and his weak position for re-election."

Source (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:34:25 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142358
True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.

I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 01:49:55 pm
Sorry for a triple post, but wanted to add specifically about Florida Polling.

Joe Biden's beating Trump in Florida -- where polls go to die (https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/07/30/joe-bidens-beating-trump-in-florida-where-polls-go-to-die/) - Tampa Bay Times

Quote

Steve Vancore, a veteran Democratic strategist in Florida, said people tend to misread polls by projecting the results forward to Election Day. and by failing to account for the campaigns' ability to react to the numbers by shifting strategy and winning over new supporters.

And multiple strategists and pollsters said in interviews that, while polls shouldn't be interpreted as predictors of the future, they are currently picking up voters' discontent in Florida and other battleground states with the president's ability to lead a nation in crisis.

"Right now, I don't think there's anything unusual about the polls. The economy is hurting, people are scared and the commander-in-chief isn't giving people what they want, so his numbers are going down," Vancore said. "But the campaigns see this data and start reacting to the data. That's what closes things down. Partisans tend to go back to the ticket."
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 30, 2020, 01:52:46 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).

But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on July 30, 2020, 01:57:23 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142388
But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.

Yes.

Because it's not about promoting clean power. It's about eliminating cheap power to impoverish the rest of us while they live like kings.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on July 30, 2020, 02:22:08 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53573294).


You can believe whatever you want, dropping our only energy source in the hopes that your dreams come true is asinine.

And furthermore, even if you managed to achieve clean and safe fusion... How do you plan to power planes and ocean transporters of goods? Energy density is against you, so far there's not a single battery that can begin to compete with fossil fuels in this department. Plus the time it takes to recharge them...

Energy density of fuels (https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density)

Energy density of batteries (https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Energy_density_of_storage_devices)

1 J = 0.00027777777777778 Wh

So the best batteries give you 150 Wh per kilo

Gasoline gives you 46 MJ per kilo or 12777.777777778 Wh per kilo.

The plane fuel gives you 44.65 MJ/kg

Electric planes are still a pipe dream (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_fuel)

Imagine now trying to move by sea 1.19 billion tones of cargo each year, with batteries? Ludicrous!

And powering your cars, buses, planes or ships with thorium reactors is also a pipe dream



Edited to add something about batteries just for the sake of it

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on July 30, 2020, 03:16:32 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142384
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html)

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-presented-with-grim-internal-polling-showing-him-losing-to-biden/2020/04/29/33544208-8a4e-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html)

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.



Source (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html)

I specifically said 'internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns"...
.
and if you really believe that campaigns with hundreds of millions aren't running polls that only the inner circle analyzes, then that just shows your political naiveté.

example:  statistical analysis on voter lists to pinpoint most likely voters....3 days with an 8 hour shift each....approx 50 calls per day per caller (Assuming a 10 minute survey)....say you hire a 100 people to do the calling...that is 15000 responses for about half a week...*

...or do you think that the $263 million already spent by the Biden campaign was for buttons, banners, and bumper stickers??



As far as the delay the election comment....Trump is the biggest troll out there, he tweets shit just to fire people up...He was doing crazy shit before he was even a reality star.

And believe me or not about the polling that is released being about shaping the outcome instead of predicting it...I don't really care

But something you might want to ask yourself:


When people are locked down for an extended period of time, they have to watch and read something....with all that extra time, do you suppose maybe there are more people checking out alternative news sources??
Whether the stories are accurate is irrelevant...it gets people thinking and asking questions...

For crazy libertarians like me, questioning authority isn't a problem, but it can be a problem for both the left and the right...

Which side of the Biden/Trump game do you think has more to lose right now if their base starts asking questions???  ;)



*note == the example numbers were just randomly chosen on the fly while posting...I did have to do telemarketing for a year or so in order to eat, so the call volume assessments are based on actual experience.*
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on July 30, 2020, 04:21:50 pm
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-grip-gop-slipping).  

Quote
The once rock-solid grip that the president had on his party seems to be slipping. Talking with pollsters and strategists from both sides this week,  it's clear that Trump is suffering not just with Democrats and independents but also with GOP voters. They tell us of polling that shows Trump underwater in districts he carried easily in 2016. One GOP strategist told me that even in heavily Republican districts, Trump's job approval rating among Republicans has dropped 10-20 points. The KFF poll released last week found Trump's overall job approval rating among Republicans dropped 12 points between May and July. On handling coronavirus, the drop in GOP support was an even more dramatic 26 points.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FingerRod on July 30, 2020, 04:28:05 pm
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on July 30, 2020, 09:58:56 pm
Quote from: FingerRod;1142419
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.

Anecdotal. I have never voted. Never really cared. I don't follow politics closely enough to make an informed decision, and would be just randomly poking boxes like a pidgeon.
But after Trump, the Democrats have gone so far off the deep end. I have voted straight Red with a preference for Trump supporters on the ballot. just dropped off my state primaries last week, as a matter of fact.
I am simply hate voting against the Democrats at this stage. I once considered them the lesser of two evils. But they've managed to convince me they're the greater of two evils at this point in time.

I don't know what Trump's chances of re-election are. I don't trust any polls since 2016. But if I were to put a wager on it, I'd be willing to say Trump in a landslide. I think the average American is shit scared of the rioting and the Democrats trying to sweep it under the rug, and they want a candidate who's willing to send in the troops and clean house. Or at least, the candidate who says they will.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on July 31, 2020, 04:17:43 am
I don't believe landslides are possible in such a divided America.

I do know that Trump will lose if sane people don't stand up and vote for him.
As with 2016, it''s all about voter turnout in key states.
If you know any American who doesn't want to live in communist shithole, get them to the polls because 2020 is the moment when America chooses between Freedom and Tyranny. If Biden wins, America is done. Say goodbye to prosperity.

Maybe the Silent Majority exists.  
Maybe they will get off their ass this year.
Who knows?

As for polls, let's keep two major factors in mind:
1) Biden's handlers haven't announced the real Democratic presidential candidate, oops, I mean his VP.
2) There have been ZERO presidential debates.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on July 31, 2020, 08:11:10 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142418
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-grip-gop-slipping).

Cook also believed Trump was going to get utterly pasted in 2016.

Forgive me if I fail to panic.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on July 31, 2020, 12:17:42 pm
I definitely wouldn't panic either. For a couple of reasons, the only polls even remotely worth listening to are aggregate polls, and even those are highly limited in their scope. Secondly, the silent majority definitely does exist, and the polls make no real attempt to find them. People where I live largely are ignored by polling, and what polling does occur, occurs in the metropolitan areas, therefore injecting a liberal bias by their very nature. People here often keep their political opinions to themselves, even going so far as to not even discuss who or what they voted for. Largely, this is the nature of rural conservatism. The only thing I would be concerned about is complacency, but I think the far left has made enough of a spectacle of themselves to ensure that everyone votes here simply from fear of encroaching Marxist beliefs.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 01, 2020, 10:43:26 pm
Quote from: Aglondir;1141744
We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.


Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on August 02, 2020, 01:57:21 am
Quote from: Spinachcat;1142724
Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74)

Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 03, 2020, 08:28:42 am
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.

Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on August 03, 2020, 05:38:36 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142928
Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.

That is a Win - Win for all of us.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 04, 2020, 04:01:53 pm
Every news site follows their own logic for how they rate the current projections for the Electoral College.  

NPR (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/897202359/2020-electoral-map-ratings-trump-slides-biden-advantage-expands-over-270-votes) moved 6 races toward the Democratic candidate.  They are now rating Colorado likely Dem (was Lean Dem), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida as Lean Dem (was Toss-up) and Georgia from Lean GOP to toss-up.  

Of those, Florida is the most likely to shift back.  Based on their electoral map, if Florida were to swing back to Trump, it would drop Biden down to 268 electoral votes - 2 shy of a victory.  While it appears that 'the rustbelt' has swung hard away from Trump (who no longer has the message of change), this does include projecting Biden winning states that Trump carried in 2016 (especially PA, MI, FL).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 04, 2020, 05:45:59 pm
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.


Be nice or I'll spread rumors there's oil in the Shire!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 05, 2020, 11:37:09 am
Emerson (https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/july-national-poll-biden-maintains-lead-in-presidential-race-majority-support-nationwide-mask-mandate-in-public-spaces) has released one of the most favorable polls for Trump in the last several weeks, showing him with 47% of the vote among Likely Voters; most other polls show him in the low 40s.  

It's an interesting poll for a variety of reasons.  Based on their poll of a month ago, the margins remain the same, but there is a much smaller pool of undecided voters (10% undecided in June, only 4% now).  Trump won late-deciding voters by a significant margin (in the lead up to the election 538 had several articles about how there was significantly more uncertainty about the election than was reported in the media, in large part because there were enough undecided voters to change the result).  If the number of undecided voters gets much smaller, campaigns will have to 'poach voters' who have already decided on their preferred candidate to achieve their desired state-level results.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 05, 2020, 02:05:58 pm
Five Thirty Eight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/) released an interesting article on the polling now versus 2016. This was published after my last post, but reiterates something I had said.

Quote

Clinton led in most national polls, but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s. Biden's share has been hovering around 50 percent. As a result, some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced, in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven't made up their minds and because signs point to fewer third-party voters than in 2016. Combined, Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support, on average, in national polls in early August 2016. By comparison, Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on August 05, 2020, 03:14:38 pm
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 05, 2020, 03:17:20 pm
Quote from: KingCheops;1143460
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.

To the old adage: "There are three kinds of falsehoods - lies, damned lies, and statistics" we can add a fourth kind of falsehood: "polls".
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 05, 2020, 03:26:49 pm
Biden will NOT be traveling to Wisconsin to accept his party's nomination (https://www.wisn.com/article/reports-joe-biden-will-not-come-to-milwaukee-for-dnc/33522984#).

Presumably because they can't get him through twenty minutes of exposure without him groping a woman, drooling, or shitting into his Depends.

Wonder who the Veep nomination will be?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 05, 2020, 03:31:49 pm
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 05, 2020, 06:41:18 pm
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 11, 2020, 05:28:46 pm
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/approve-or-not-trump-setting-unfavorable-downballot-conditions) was worth a read.

Quote
Either way, Republicans are getting clobbered with independents. The assessments end up in the same place. The only differences are in how to read the problem. One GOP campaign consultant suggested that the percentage of voters not just disapproving, but strongly disapproving of Trump's overall performance is the best indicator--that "somewhat disapproving" left slight ground for someone to still come down his way. National polls show roughly 50 percent strongly disapprove of the president's performance, with somewhat disapproving in the mid-single digits. Of course, winning all of the somewhat-disapproving voters would be a bit unrealistic.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Doc Sammy on August 11, 2020, 06:49:03 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144384
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/approve-or-not-trump-setting-unfavorable-downballot-conditions) was worth a read.

The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on August 11, 2020, 07:22:25 pm
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I have to wonder if this announcement strengthens Kanye's chances.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 12, 2020, 08:07:10 am
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on August 12, 2020, 08:47:50 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144384
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

And I still have not stopped laughing! This is some of the best political comedy out there!
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 01:53:42 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1144498
I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!


The reason they went "Joe & The Ho" was because she was the best compromise they could do.
Everybody knows that the VP is their choice for the top spot, that was part of why they took so long to decide.
Joe painted them into a corner and they had to use a minority woman.
She was the 'best' option in the field.

They can't go with Bass (Increase the hard left vote) because she is too socialist and moderates are already running scared.  The riots are costing them too much.

Rice is out because she is uniparty establishment.  She would cost them more of the hard left than Harris and her attachment to the previous admin is dangerous for them.  (Suppose DJT says 'Well since we can't prosecute, here is a bunch of declassified info on the Russia investigation that no longer has to be kept hidden due to possible criminal proceedings.")

That really just leaves Harris, who will cost some of the hard left and some of the black vote, but probably less overall than the other two.

...plus it will be harder to target her with the whole casting couch thing given Trrump's history and the fact that Pence is probably not mean enough to go that route.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 12, 2020, 03:26:59 pm
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144542
The reason they went "Joe & The Ho" was because she was the best compromise they could do.
Everybody knows that the VP is their choice for the top spot, that was part of why they took so long to decide.
Joe painted them into a corner and they had to use a minority woman.
She was the 'best' option in the field.

They can't go with Bass (Increase the hard left vote) because she is too socialist and moderates are already running scared.  The riots are costing them too much.

Rice is out because she is uniparty establishment.  She would cost them more of the hard left than Harris and her attachment to the previous admin is dangerous for them.  (Suppose DJT says 'Well since we can't prosecute, here is a bunch of declassified info on the Russia investigation that no longer has to be kept hidden due to possible criminal proceedings.")

That really just leaves Harris, who will cost some of the hard left and some of the black vote, but probably less overall than the other two.

...plus it will be harder to target her with the whole casting couch thing given Trump's history and the fact that Pence is probably not mean enough to go that route.

They could also be reading their internal polls and cutting their losses early.  Partially because a lot of people in the party don't like her, but also because when you are dealing with a long shot, might as well go for a full ticket full of baggage to rub everyone's nose in it if the long shot pays off.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 12, 2020, 04:03:45 pm
I love to see people call Kamala African-American when she's of Indian-Jamaican descent.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 05:29:10 pm
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1144559
They could also be reading their internal polls and cutting their losses early.  Partially because a lot of people in the party don't like her, but also because when you are dealing with a long shot, might as well go for a full ticket full of baggage to rub everyone's nose in it if the long shot pays off.

Tim Poole has made similar statements, although more along the lines of being sacrificial goats while they prepare for 2024.

I really hope that is not the case.  If their polls are actually that bad, then I'm worried about where the situation ends.

If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on August 12, 2020, 07:54:16 pm
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144583
If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.

One thing you have to understand about critical theory is that there is no bottom to it. There is no point where an adherent will stop and say "THIS is beyond the pale, it would be wrong." There is only "can we get away with doing it."

Once you accept that the people in charge are literally and criminally insane and warped by utter rage at all those who voted against their ascension to a permanent aristocratic class, that they've been indoctrinating an entire generation to be their useful dupes and that individual lives simply do not matter to them except as means to political power you'll find you can accurately predict their actions with depressing consistency.

They are absolutely setting up to burn the country down in a self-immolating "if I can't have it, no one will" end game. It's not the first choice, but for the paymasters egging these nuts on who seek a globalist world order, it's an acceptable alternative.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 12, 2020, 09:32:14 pm
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144583
Tim Poole has made similar statements, although more along the lines of being sacrificial goats while they prepare for 2024.

I really hope that is not the case.  If their polls are actually that bad, then I'm worried about where the situation ends.

If they truly 'know' they are going too lose this round, that means their actions have crossed a whole other moral event horizon.

Well, they still think the House is in the bag and that the Senates is in play.  Giving the amount of cheating they have planned and the complete cluelessness (when not outright traitors--e.g. Mitt Romney, spit!) of the GOP establishment, they may very well be correct. In some ways, they'd rather win those, hamstring Trump's second term, and generally cause trouble.  I think the more likely outcome is moderate GOP gains in the House offset by some minor losses, which falls 5 to 10 short of flipping it.  The Senate is probably a straight wash, though could net the Dems +1 if McSally can't get her act together or Kelly stops shooting himself in the foot.  OTOH, all the leftist psychosis could cause a handful of pleasant surprises the other way, too.

Of course, if I'm right in those outcomes, then 2022 will be a rare blood-bath for off-year opposition party in the House and Senate.  The net GOP won't change much in 2020, but we are getting some weasels replaced with decent candidates.  That will help roast them for their Pelosi tricks (assuming she makes it that long).  The 2022 Senate map is horrible for the Dems.  Not to mention, the 2020 Census, even with all the Dem governor/legislature/courts tricks is going to be brutal to their House line up and their electoral prospects in 2024.  

Realignments are never pretty.  We are clearly out of the ramp up phase and into the heart of it.  There will be a lot of political scalps gathered before we are done.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 12, 2020, 10:03:51 pm
Quote from: Chris24601;1144611

They are absolutely setting up to burn the country down in a self-immolating "if I can't have it, no one will" end game. It's not the first choice, but for the paymasters egging these nuts on who seek a globalist world order, it's an acceptable alternative.


Yeah, I get the insanity of it.  I just don't think they truly grasp what crossing the line between 'self-defense' and 'war' actually means.  That's what bothers me...
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on August 13, 2020, 12:09:05 am
Quote from: moonsweeper;1144636
Yeah, I get the insanity of it.  I just don't think they truly grasp what crossing the line between 'self-defense' and 'war' actually means.  That's what bothers me...

Oh, the people actually calling the shots (and I don't mean Chuck and Nancy) know EXACTLY what it means and a broken and divided America is exactly in their best interests.

In 2016 the "managed decline" of the United States as a world power under Hillary (and the rise of a Chinese/Globalist money men hegemony with its slave labor and fixed outcomes to replace it) was the plan.

Now they're hoping for an American torn apart by a Civil War being too weakened to oppose their moves to likely seize Taiwan and its assets, bully India and South Korea, re-establish planned the Belt and Road exploitation of the third world and Chinese 5G surveillance state dream, end the sanctions on Iran (so many kickbacks) and finish the job of exporting American jobs and resources to their Chinese slave labor camps.

All in the name of endless greed and thirst for power by people who fashion themselves Masters of the Universe and wish to control everyone's lives from cradle to grave because they believe we're too stupid to make our decisions and that they deserve all the fruits of others' labors because they'll use them more effectively than we could... even if that means we starve because we're not useful for their plans.

There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.

The Democrat and 90% of the elected representatives of the Republican party are just their bought-off flunkies directed how to vote by K-Street lobbyists on legislation written by multi-national corporate lawyers.

This didn't happen overnight... it's been the work of decades (100 years with the last serious pushback before the people elected President Trump being three decades prior) and it will take decades to fully reverse. President Trump has bought us some time and, if re-elected, can lay a strong foundation, but the real battle will be in 2024 when the people will have to push back against the Establishment Republican pick and elect another America First populist fighter to continue the restoration.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 13, 2020, 12:21:25 am
Greetings!

There can never be a one world Globalist government as long as there is a strong, unified and free America.

For a Globalist government to succeed, America must be disunited, weak, and broke.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: blackstone on August 13, 2020, 08:01:49 am
Quote from: Chris24601;1144648
Oh, the people actually calling the shots (and I don't mean Chuck and Nancy) know EXACTLY what it means and a broken and divided America is exactly in their best interests.

In 2016 the "managed decline" of the United States as a world power under Hillary (and the rise of a Chinese/Globalist money men hegemony with its slave labor and fixed outcomes to replace it) was the plan.

Now they're hoping for an American torn apart by a Civil War being too weakened to oppose their moves to likely seize Taiwan and its assets, bully India and South Korea, re-establish planned the Belt and Road exploitation of the third world and Chinese 5G surveillance state dream, end the sanctions on Iran (so many kickbacks) and finish the job of exporting American jobs and resources to their Chinese slave labor camps.

All in the name of endless greed and thirst for power by people who fashion themselves Masters of the Universe and wish to control everyone's lives from cradle to grave because they believe we're too stupid to make our decisions and that they deserve all the fruits of others' labors because they'll use them more effectively than we could... even if that means we starve because we're not useful for their plans.

There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.

The Democrat and 90% of the elected representatives of the Republican party are just their bought-off flunkies directed how to vote by K-Street lobbyists on legislation written by multi-national corporate lawyers.

This didn't happen overnight... it's been the work of decades (100 years with the last serious pushback before the people elected President Trump being three decades prior) and it will take decades to fully reverse. President Trump has bought us some time and, if re-elected, can lay a strong foundation, but the real battle will be in 2024 when the people will have to push back against the Establishment Republican pick and elect another America First populist fighter to continue the restoration.

^^^THIS 100%^^^

I can't stress how accurate the above statement is. I've made the case in several threads in the past that the PRC for the past 25 years have slowly built up their military and economic stature. A few known facts:

- build up of economic base: building cheap products for the West and using slave labor. Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

- natural resources: Spratley Islands are a hotly contested area in SE Asia. there just a bunch of coral rocks jutting out of the water...with a shit load of OIL sitting right under it. they didn't build a military base on a piece of shit atoll there for nothing. The PRC have bought up mineral rights in Africa for strategic metals and minerals (which includes oil). In return, said African nations get cheap goods, which includes some military equipment and rights to use ports.

-Military: Speaking of ports: the PRC Navy isn't just going to have two carriers for shits and giggles, along with a rather impressive submarine fleet (79 active vs. 68 active for the USN). History tells us that any great power has a large navy to project power over the horizon. Plus they've slowly modernized their Army and Air Force. Don't kid yourself, all of this is for keeping their eye of the prize: Taiwan. Hell, the Commandant the the Marine Corps has acknowledged this recently: the USMC is removing all of it's armor units and going back to being a more mobile amphibious force, just in case we have to deal with an aggressive PRC in the Pacific.

-diplomatic relations: since the end of Cold War I (we're now in Cold War II: don't kid yourself), the PRC have done quite a bit to improve relations with Russia. With that being said, since they've had better relations, the pressure between the two has lessened considerably. this allows both nations to redirect their attentions elsewhere, such as Russia showing new interest in reestablishing old military bases in the Arctic and performing old school overflights near Alaska and our fleet. Relations with India have always been stressful, and we're talking centuries old bad blood between the two. Today, it's no different. To counter this, The USA have made much better relations with India, which IMO the should have a long time ago, and rightly so. India is the world's largest democracy population-wise. they also have a very robust military (you'd have one to if the PRC was right on your fucking doorstep), and we've had a few joint fleet exercises with them. Also, Japan have been making several moves to be more proactive in regards to the PRC: they've enacted a few laws that allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to react more freely when it comes to military aggression from the PRC and North Korea...

-North Korea: the literal wild card. if the feces hits the rotating blade, it's because the North Koreans have started some shit, and the PRC will use it as an excuse to make moves throughout SE Asia. They hope that the DPRK will bear the brunt of the blow, while the PRC gets the spoils with little effort or recourse. In other words: North Korea is the PRC's meat shield when a war starts.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 13, 2020, 03:02:47 pm
Quote from: blackstone;1144670
Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

They don't hold that much. China holds about $1.1 trillion in US debt, which is less than 5% of the total. If push came to shove, the Federal Reserve would just print that much in cash, and give it to the Chinese. It's not a tool of control.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign-holders-of-us-debt-2020
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 13, 2020, 03:21:28 pm
Quote from: blackstone;1144670
^^^THIS 100%^^^

I can't stress how accurate the above statement is. I've made the case in several threads in the past that the PRC for the past 25 years have slowly built up their military and economic stature. A few known facts:

- build up of economic base: building cheap products for the West and using slave labor. Also the PRC have bought up a good chunk of the debt the USA has created, basically a way to put a stranglehold on the USA if push came to shove

- natural resources: Spratley Islands are a hotly contested area in SE Asia. there just a bunch of coral rocks jutting out of the water...with a shit load of OIL sitting right under it. they didn't build a military base on a piece of shit atoll there for nothing. The PRC have bought up mineral rights in Africa for strategic metals and minerals (which includes oil). In return, said African nations get cheap goods, which includes some military equipment and rights to use ports.

-Military: Speaking of ports: the PRC Navy isn't just going to have two carriers for shits and giggles, along with a rather impressive submarine fleet (79 active vs. 68 active for the USN). History tells us that any great power has a large navy to project power over the horizon. Plus they've slowly modernized their Army and Air Force. Don't kid yourself, all of this is for keeping their eye of the prize: Taiwan. Hell, the Commandant the the Marine Corps has acknowledged this recently: the USMC is removing all of it's armor units and going back to being a more mobile amphibious force, just in case we have to deal with an aggressive PRC in the Pacific.

-diplomatic relations: since the end of Cold War I (we're now in Cold War II: don't kid yourself), the PRC have done quite a bit to improve relations with Russia. With that being said, since they've had better relations, the pressure between the two has lessened considerably. this allows both nations to redirect their attentions elsewhere, such as Russia showing new interest in reestablishing old military bases in the Arctic and performing old school overflights near Alaska and our fleet. Relations with India have always been stressful, and we're talking centuries old bad blood between the two. Today, it's no different. To counter this, The USA have made much better relations with India, which IMO the should have a long time ago, and rightly so. India is the world's largest democracy population-wise. they also have a very robust military (you'd have one to if the PRC was right on your fucking doorstep), and we've had a few joint fleet exercises with them. Also, Japan have been making several moves to be more proactive in regards to the PRC: they've enacted a few laws that allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to react more freely when it comes to military aggression from the PRC and North Korea...

-North Korea: the literal wild card. if the feces hits the rotating blade, it's because the North Koreans have started some shit, and the PRC will use it as an excuse to make moves throughout SE Asia. They hope that the DPRK will bear the brunt of the blow, while the PRC gets the spoils with little effort or recourse. In other words: North Korea is the PRC's meat shield when a war starts.

China is one of the major players, no doubt. But don't become myopic - the threat to the U.S. is global, and consists of a variety of players of differing scope, all with a common cause - opposing the U.S.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 13, 2020, 10:05:49 pm
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 13, 2020, 10:52:43 pm
Maybe they all know the same person.  Six degrees of separation and all that...  

Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).

Anecdotally, I know a number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 that don't plan to do so in 2020.  All of the appeal of an 'outsider who can shake things up' doesn't sound as important today.  Now, maybe they'll reverse course (but I live in Tennessee, and their vote doesn't REALLY matter except for knowing how much Biden beat Trump in the popular vote) with concerns about Democrats gaining control of the House, Senate and White House.  But Biden isn't as scary as Clinton to them.  

What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 13, 2020, 11:20:13 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798
Maybe they all know the same person.  Six degrees of separation and all that...  

Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).

Anecdotally, I know a number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 that don't plan to do so in 2020.  All of the appeal of an 'outsider who can shake things up' doesn't sound as important today.  Now, maybe they'll reverse course (but I live in Tennessee, and their vote doesn't REALLY matter except for knowing how much Biden beat Trump in the popular vote) with concerns about Democrats gaining control of the House, Senate and White House.  But Biden isn't as scary as Clinton to them.  

What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.

Or maybe they are telling you they will not vote for the god emperor so you stop pestering them?

Yeah, it's so likely they all know the same people...

Biden is worst than Clinton, he'll just step aside and let Harris rule, and she's a douche canoe.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 13, 2020, 11:24:32 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798


What' been surprising to me is attacks on Kamala Harris indicating that she is both too liberal and too conservative.


Shouldn't be that surprising.  Of the 4, she has been the biggest mercenary opportunist during her political career.  That means everyone can find a bunch of things which she has done that they disagree with.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 13, 2020, 11:35:13 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144798
Shy Trump voters are likely a myth, but polls aren't perfect (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/politics/trump-voters-analysis/index.html).
That article misses the point. The argument I've seen is that people will say one thing to a pollster, and then go and vote a different way. So the idea that Republican voters are hiding out from pollsters is a strawman. And comparing live and phone polling may not be a reliable indicator anymore, because everyone knows everything is recorded and tracked, i.e. people worrying they'll end up on a "list".

And modeling was a bigger problem in 2016 than the polls.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 13, 2020, 11:35:53 pm
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1144803
Or maybe they are telling you they will not vote for the god emperor so you stop pestering them?

Yeah, it's so likely they all know the same people...

Biden is worst than Clinton, he'll just step aside and let Harris rule, and she's a douche canoe.


Greetings!

Well, besides arming the fuck up with lots of weapons, ammunition, and other gear, I have also contributed money to the God Emperor's campaign. I also plan to attend more patriot rallies, and I always encourage fellow citizens I meet to support the God Emperor, and get armed and ready! I also intend to vote *in person*--like I have done all of my life.

Everywhere I go, from the grocery store, my church, the auto shop, the gun store, the barber shop--I meet more and more people that support the God Emperor!:D

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 14, 2020, 04:31:25 am
I am fascinated about what happened between August 1st when Politico "accidentally" leaked their story about Horizontal Harris being VP (with a quote from the Biden campaign) and August 10th when they officially announced. What was really happening for those 9 days?  


Quote from: Chris24601;1144648
There are TRILLIONS of dollars at stake and a free and independent America stands in their way. The truth is they aren't really after President Trump; they're after US and he just happens to be in the way.


Exactly. But we're so undermined after decades of indoctrination that most of the country won't even mind being enslaved as long as they keep their iPhones.


Quote from: SHARK;1144649
There can never be a one world Globalist government as long as there is a strong, unified and free America.

For a Globalist government to succeed, America must be disunited, weak, and broke.


That second sentence described America 2020 quite accurately.


Quote from: SHARK;1144807
Everywhere I go, from the grocery store, my church, the auto shop, the gun store, the barber shop--I meet more and more people that support the God Emperor!:D


But you're not in a swing state. Biden isn't going to spend a dime in Idaho.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 16, 2020, 02:01:59 am
Greetings!

An Australian news organization interviews two black Americans on recent polling, riots, and more Americans--turning against BLM. The black American woman, Shameka Michelle, engaged with a white BLM protestor, and schooled him severely on video.:D

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 16, 2020, 05:37:58 am
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1144498
I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!

I think they chose her because they're so confident Biden will win that they don't need a VP who'll deliver any states. She's basically the ideal rootless neo-Liberal functionary.She has no natural base of support that  a politician might rely upon if he wanted to go against the wishes of the financial interests, and likewise there's no constituency whose interests she might be tempted to represent due to natural human and community ties. She's nothing but an empty, ambitious social climber, the perfect tool.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 16, 2020, 12:55:04 pm
Quote from: Mjollnir;1145076
I think they chose her because they're so confident Biden will win that they don't need a VP who'll deliver any states.

There hasn't been a VP who delivered a state since arguably Kennedy's selection of LBJ.  Fact Check (https://www.factcheck.org/2008/07/do-vp-candidates-win-states/)

More often a VP is seen as a way to 'balance' a ticket.  A youthful presidential candidate (like George W or Barrack) often chooses an experienced elder statesman (like Cheney or Biden), while an older candidate often chooses someone youthful (like McCain choosing Palin).  

Biden was looking for a VP candidate that would have broad appeal and bring some energy to the ticket.  For a lot of people, a woman, and specifically a black woman, seemed to be important criteria to confirm that the Democratic party is committed to policies that are important to their most committed constituency (as opposed to taking the support of blacks for granted).  

There are a lot of reasons why under normal circumstances, Biden might be confident - things like the incumbent has NEVER won an election when 2nd Quarter GDP dropped like it did this year - but this is not going to be a normal election.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 16, 2020, 01:51:27 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145103
There are a lot of reasons why under normal circumstances, Biden might be confident - things like the incumbent has NEVER won an election when 2nd Quarter GDP dropped like it did this year - but this is not going to be a normal election.

That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump. I think most people realize that. But then, there's a lot of derranged anti-Trumpers who blame him for everything and anything in an attempt to fight back against the bad orange man.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 16, 2020, 05:24:00 pm
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145112
That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump. I think most people realize that. But then, there's a lot of derranged anti-Trumpers who blame him for everything and anything in an attempt to fight back against the bad orange man.

Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 16, 2020, 06:13:38 pm
Greetings!

"Russian Bounties." That's all bullshit being pushed by the Democrats in yet *again* another bowl of bullshit covered in nothingburger steak sauce. US Intelligence officials have reported that there wasn't anything worthwhile to the story--which has been known to US Intelligence for a long time.

Just more anti-Trump nonsense by the Democrats.

The UN is a useless, pathetic organization full of weak, sniveling cowards, and most of which love opposing a strong America on a regular basis. So, fuck what the UN thinks.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 16, 2020, 06:45:15 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

I don't. Nancy Pelosi notoriously ripped up Trumps speech on the Covid issue, and Democrats and the media were claiming Covid was not a serious threat in February. They came around when the death toll started to mount. The whole of the US government and the individual states and the media have to take their share of the responsibility.

Quote
His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

Yes. And Obama drone bombed civilians. This is the kind of usual rhetoric around leaders that fades into the background noise of partisan politics.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 16, 2020, 07:19:36 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).

He left the local decision-making to the local executives who knew their individual situations better and offered federal support if they needed it.  His national response was to shutdown travel from China where the virus came from. My memory is failing me on whether he caught political flak for that decision or not.  I can't seem to recall what the WHO and China had to say about the virus either.  Could you please remind me?

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

Never mind.  I didn't realize you were running for the resident Neocon position here at the RPGsite.  I withdraw my questions since I don't expect an honest answer.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 16, 2020, 08:54:52 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Can you please explain to me what interest I have in advancing "American" neo-Liberal hegemony across the world? To be totally honest, I can't think of many foreign countries I hate enough to wish "American" influence on.

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

I've gotta admit, the "bundle of sticks" is a good metaphor.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 16, 2020, 10:46:31 pm
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145112
That's the thing. Covid is the reason why the economy tanked, not Trump.

Don't buy into the attempts at displacement. The economy didn't tank because of a natural disaster, it tanked because of government-inflicted sanctions. Without the shutdowns, the economic effects would have been much milder.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 16, 2020, 11:48:47 pm
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Some people don't think the economy is the only issue, whether they blame him for it or not.  While I don't think Trump is directly responsible for Covid, I do think that he is responsible for the National response.  

His claim I don't take responsibility at all (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-08/trumps-new-2020-message-its-not-my-fault) is undignified for the leader of the free world, and completely opposite of Truman's The Buck Stops Here (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_buck_stops_here).  

My major in college was International Relations, and I've always understood that Americans distrust International organizations (like the UN), but we supported and created them because they allowed us to amplify and wield 'soft power' in the world.  The US Iran Embargo (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/us-iran-un-arms-embargo-nuclear-deal) is a clear sign of our diminished position in international politics.  The failure of the Commander-in-chief to respond in any way to Russian bounties on American Troops (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/07/29/trump-says-he-didnt-raise-issue-of-bounties-on-us-troops-during-phone-call-with-putin/) is a dereliction of duty that I think an argument could be made that it borders on treasonous.  Trump's message in 2016 - Make America Great Again - never rang true for me, because this nation has ALWAYS been great.  There have always been areas where we could seek to make improvements, and that's still true today.  But instead of advancing American interests, we've been stymied by an inability to support our existing treaties.  

Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.


Sounding very fascist there... You might want to rethink your positions you imperialist Yankee commie.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 17, 2020, 12:23:15 am
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1145135
Everyone should know the Fable of the Bundle of Sticks (https://www.thoughtco.com/aesops-fable-the-bundle-of-sticks-118589) - even if we're the strongest, we're even stronger when we work with our allies.

I see what you did there. (https://www.britannica.com/topic/fasces) (In case anyone missed it.)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on August 17, 2020, 12:48:02 am
As a bundle-of-sticks enthusiast I unequivocally disavow any and all forms of Yankee Imperialism.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 17, 2020, 04:25:20 pm
God, the post office conspiracy theories make it seem like the Democrats are so sure Trump is going to win, that they're already setting up their excuses as to how Trump "cheated".
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 17, 2020, 04:54:42 pm
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145292
God, the post office conspiracy theories make it seem like the Democrats are so sure Trump is going to win, that they're already setting up their excuses as to how Trump "cheated".

Yes. Yes they are.

Their methods of cheating have been shut down, so they are projecting in order to set the stage to reject the results.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 18, 2020, 03:35:54 am
The Dems cheating!? Why I never! :rolleyes:

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 10:15:26 am
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1145336
The Dems cheating!? Why I never! :rolleyes:

Poole makes a decent point I haven't seen elsewhere: A major postal union endorsed Biden on the 14th. That's a pretty serious conflict of interest.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 18, 2020, 12:08:47 pm
Quote from: Pat;1145364
Poole makes a decent point I haven't seen elsewhere: A major postal union endorsed Biden on the 14th. That's a pretty serious conflict of interest.

Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 12:15:12 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145383
Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).
That was the main thrust of Pool's video, but it's been covered elsewhere. That's why I pointed out the one thing that seemed new to me.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 18, 2020, 12:16:25 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145383
Keep in mind the whole 'Trump is sabotaging the USPS' is a load of shit. A pretty good breakdown of the scam is here (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-post-office-and-elections-lies.html).


And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 18, 2020, 02:00:07 pm
Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).

Well now.

If this works... and there is a LOT hanging on that 'if' ... it's going to change things dramatically.

I don't believe in miracles or silver bullets, but let's see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hair one more time.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 18, 2020, 02:16:32 pm
Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).

First of all, the blog claims "Hey this was filed in Feb. of 2019" when the image itself says "Filed: Feb 7, 2020". While I haven't fully read the patent, I am very suspicious of suddenly rolling out a brand-new blockchain-based system. Any online verification system seems likely to have potential for social/physical hacking even if it is cryptographically secure. Here's a CryptoNews article on the patent and the patent itself:

https://cryptonews.com/news/us-postal-service-bets-on-ethereum-blockchain-in-patented-vo-7456.htm
https://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.aiw?PageNum=0&docid=20200258338&IDKey=7A4F4EA40D1F

Personally, I would favor law enforcement as the first priority. All agencies with jurisdiction should conduct investigations and attempt sting operations. This won't catch all of the fraud, but it has the advantage of sending fraudsters to jail rather than leaving them free to try other means of swaying elections. More importantly, they could turn over evidence of corrupt politicians backing them.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 18, 2020, 02:17:11 pm
I'm laughing inside at the idea that the government is technologically adept enough to implement a blockchain voter ID system before November.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 18, 2020, 02:47:37 pm
Quote from: Pat;1145404
I'm laughing inside at the idea that the government is technologically adept enough to implement a blockchain voter ID system before November.

The government especially, but I don't think anyone can implement any massive changes to the voting system within the next few months. Not mail in voting (unless the state already has it in place) much less some crypto black box bitchain system that few people really understand and trust with their vote.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 18, 2020, 06:10:29 pm
Quote from: Ratman_tf;1145407
The government especially, but I don't think anyone can implement any massive changes to the voting system within the next few months. Not mail in voting (unless the state already has it in place) much less some crypto black box bitchain system that few people really understand and trust with their vote.

All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on August 18, 2020, 06:19:46 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Yes. And all they have to do is request an absentee ballot just like Trump has stated numerous times...

so please tell us what Orange Man Bad is actually suppressing?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on August 18, 2020, 06:31:06 pm
Quote from: moonsweeper;1145434
so please tell us what Orange Man Bad is actually suppressing?

The ability to harvest an additional 60M ballots so that Biden has a chance in hell of winning?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on August 18, 2020, 06:33:54 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Do you think they have the infrastructure set up to handle a massive shift to mail in voting within a few months? Considering the USPS has been downsizing for years, I serously doubt it.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on August 18, 2020, 07:10:46 pm
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Alathon on August 18, 2020, 09:04:19 pm
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL

I'm willing to give up the vote, or accept some real risks for it, in return for denying authority to the TV watchers and antenna-heads.  These fuckers couldn't run a lemonade stand and have no loyalty to anything.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 18, 2020, 09:49:36 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145432
All 50 states have a mail-in voting system. State laws differ on whether someone qualifies for mail-in voting, but they at least have the structures in place to do it. Only a few states like Utah had moved to mail-in voting as the default already, but that's just a matter of operation. The system for voting is there, at least.


Absentee voting is not designed to handle the volume of a full election.  Anyone that knows anything about the process first hand can tell you that.  It will break down on at least two fronts:  The process of getting the request of the ballot and mailing it out timely already has immense problems.  Solve that, and you'll overwhelm the receipt.  That's not even counting the fraud problems.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on August 19, 2020, 12:42:18 am
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.


As tempting as this sounds and as often as it has crossed my mind, how do we implement this IRL? I'm not sure that sticking someone's hand inside a pain-box while holding a poisoned needle to their neck ready to pinch them if they take their hand out accurately determines who's human (plus it would probably be considered a human rights violation). And I'm not sure high IQ is necessarily an indication that someone won't be an idiot about certain things or have serious lapses in judgement or critical thinking (e.g. Richard Dawkins on Brexit), so I don't think an IQ test would work either.

We need a way test people's critical thinking faculties that can't be abused by ideologues or elite cliques with an agenda.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 19, 2020, 07:56:07 am
Quote from: tenbones;1145440
We should go full Heinlein - Citizenship and the right vote has to be earned.

You have to give service - military or civilian service for a period of at least two years. Only then do you get citizenship and right to vote.

Everyone else - enjoy what you've earned. You just don't get to make decisions.

Personally I think this is too easy - I'd go full Herbert and institute an added fundamental layer: the Gom Jabbar. You have to prove you're human and not an NPC first. So only humans can become civilians. Then civilians have to choose to earn Citizenship. The rest of the NPC primates will have less rights, which won't matter because they're too stupid to realize it.

I mean look at all the morons that think we have all these "rights" that don't exist now, but believe it with all the powers of the Holy Rheeee! We're practically there now.

What have we got to lose? LOL


Quote from: Alathon;1145455
I'm willing to give up the vote, or accept some real risks for it, in return for denying authority to the TV watchers and antenna-heads.  These fuckers couldn't run a lemonade stand and have no loyalty to anything.


Quote from: VisionStorm;1145471
As tempting as this sounds and as often as it has crossed my mind, how do we implement this IRL? I'm not sure that sticking someone's hand inside a pain-box while holding a poisoned needle to their neck ready to pinch them if they take their hand out accurately determines who's human (plus it would probably be considered a human rights violation). And I'm not sure high IQ is necessarily an indication that someone won't be an idiot about certain things or have serious lapses in judgement or critical thinking (e.g. Richard Dawkins on Brexit), so I don't think an IQ test would work either.

We need a way test people's critical thinking faculties that can't be abused by ideologues or elite cliques with an agenda.

A simpler method is this: you only get to vote in federal elections if you paid in one penny more in taxes than you received in subsidies or federal assistance.

In other words, you have to have skin in the game.

(Yes, I know, we still need to deal with things like corporate subsidies and crap like that. But this is a good start point.)
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 12:55:13 pm
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1145460
Absentee voting is not designed to handle the volume of a full election.  Anyone that knows anything about the process first hand can tell you that.  It will break down on at least two fronts:  The process of getting the request of the ballot and mailing it out timely already has immense problems.  Solve that, and you'll overwhelm the receipt.  That's not even counting the fraud problems.
Yes, everything I've seen suggests scaling up from absentee voting (small percentage of the population) to universal mail-in voting is beyond the capability of the states who don't already have the infrastructure in place. The antiquated systems just can't handle it, or scale up that quickly. Contrary to the media narrative, the Post Office is not a bottleneck. Even if everyone in the country votes, it only amounts to a 1-2% increase in mail volume, which the Postmaster (a Trump appointee) and both postal unions (both have endorsed Biden) have said is no problem. Though it's worth noting there are significant delays delivering mail right now, and the deadlines for mailed-on ballots aren't based on postmark, but on the date the mail arrives.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 19, 2020, 05:55:36 pm
Quote from: Pat;1145509
Yes, everything I've seen suggests scaling up from absentee voting (small percentage of the population) to universal mail-in voting is beyond the capability of the states who don't already have the infrastructure in place.

The percentage varies widely from state to state because of differing laws. For many states, the percentage isn't that small. I would agree that some states will have trouble scaling up. But a lot of states already have a large percentage of votes cast either early or vote-by-mail -- not just blue states like California and Oregon, but also red states like Arizona and Utah.

https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/17/eavs-deep-dive-early-absentee-and-mail-voting-data-statutory-overview

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 19, 2020, 06:06:25 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145551
The percentage varies widely from state to state because of differing laws. For many states, the percentage isn't that small. I would agree that some states will have trouble scaling up. But a lot of states already have a large percentage of votes cast either early or vote-by-mail -- not just blue states like California and Oregon, but also red states like Arizona and Utah.

https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/17/eavs-deep-dive-early-absentee-and-mail-voting-data-statutory-overview

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/

Absentee ballots =/= vote by mail.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 08:21:01 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145551

I think a shift of around 50% mail-in voting to 80% is not a big deal for a state. Arizona, for example, has reported being confident of scaling up.

https://coppercourier.com/story/arizona-confident-mail-in-voting/

A majority of people already voting by mail means Arizona has extensive infrastructure in place, and they've revised the system to make it more efficient since the 2018 election, so it sounds like they have an up to date and relatively robust system.

I really doubt that's the norm. I'd like to see a good survey of the mail-in voting capabilities of all 51 states and district. Many voting systems around the country are old, brittle, and probably can't scale up quickly without massive failures. Three months before a Presidential election isn't a good time to experiment with the untested and untried.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on August 19, 2020, 08:39:06 pm
Quote from: Pat;1145578
A majority of people already voting by mail means Arizona has extensive infrastructure in place, and they've revised the system to make it more efficient since the 2018 election, so it sounds like they have an up to date and relatively robust system.

I really doubt that's the norm. I'd like to see a good survey of the mail-in voting capabilities of all 51 states and district. Many voting systems around the country are old, brittle, and probably can't scale up quickly without massive failures. Three months before a Presidential election isn't a good time to experiment with the untested and untried.
Vote by mail has been expanding a lot over the past two decades. Arizona might not be perfectly average among the 50 states, but it's not the cutting edge either. The cutting edge would be the five states like Utah and Oregon which already have entirely vote-by-mail. Here's an overview of the current status of vote-by-mail:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/11/us/politics/vote-by-mail-us-states.html

I agree that we shouldn't be rolling out untested and untried systems. I'm only talking about scaling up existing tested systems that already handle millions of voters. Opposing the untested and untried was exactly why I objected to the suggestion linked recently by RandyB and Ghostmaker that Trump should mandate by executive order the newly patented verification system, for example.

Quote from: RandyB;1145388
And an interesting wrinkle in the whole saga is summarized here (https://bradfordcwalker.blogspot.com/2020/08/narrative-warfare-tech-that-kills.html).
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1145401
Well now.

If this works... and there is a LOT hanging on that 'if' ... it's going to change things dramatically.

I don't believe in miracles or silver bullets, but let's see if Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hair one more time.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 19, 2020, 09:48:07 pm
Quote from: jhkim;1145589
Vote by mail has been expanding a lot over the past two decades. Arizona might not be perfectly average among the 50 states, but it's not the cutting edge either. The cutting edge would be the five states like Utah and Oregon which already have entirely vote-by-mail. Here's an overview of the current status of vote-by-mail:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/11/us/politics/vote-by-mail-us-states.html
Their interactive map lists PA as "absentee voting allowed for all". But they literally just passed that law, and the Post Office came out and told them their plan wouldn't work:
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-mail-voting-deadlines-post-office-lawsuit-20200813.html
So the maps is useless as a indicator of actual capability. It's just a list of the rules, including any half-assed post-sars2 statutory changes.

Quote from: jhkim;1145589
I agree that we shouldn't be rolling out untested and untried systems. I'm only talking about scaling up existing tested systems that already handle millions of voters.
Scaling up isn't automatic, either. Systems that are inflexible, out of date, or near capacity may have no real extra capacity. That's something that requires a state-by-state assessment, and not blanket generalizations.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on August 21, 2020, 11:19:55 pm
I've lived in vote by mail states. The only thing preventing fraud is a sense of honor.  There were elections where I received multiple ballots in the mail for people who'd lived at that address in the last few years. Apartments, especially.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 22, 2020, 09:45:20 pm
Tell me more about how safe and secure mail in voting is, comrades.
 (https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/20/judge-new-election-paterson-new-jersey-mail-in-voting-fraud/)
Because this doesn't exactly fill me with boundless confidence.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 09:48:26 pm
As of August 4th, New York still hadn't counted all the votes (https://nypost.com/2020/08/04/judge-orders-new-york-state-to-count-invalidated-mail-in-ballots/) from the June primary.

Was that because Sanders actually beat Dementia JoJo in New York?

Or was it because Trump did too well in areas assumed locked down for Biden?
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 09:52:08 pm
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1146053
Because this doesn't exactly fill me with boundless confidence.

I'm filled with boundless confidence that mail in voting is voter fraud heaven....which is why the leftists want it.

If there was any chance that mail in voting would benefit Trump, the DNC would order their goons to start burning down USPS.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on August 22, 2020, 09:56:46 pm
Quote from: Spinachcat;1146054
As of August 4th, New York still hadn't counted all the votes (https://nypost.com/2020/08/04/judge-orders-new-york-state-to-count-invalidated-mail-in-ballots/) from the June primary.

Was that because Sanders actually beat Dementia JoJo in New York?

Or was it because Trump did too well in areas assumed locked down for Biden?

Greetings!

Well, since the fucking Democrats, the Media, the Deep State, have all been desperately trying to get rid of President Trump since his election in 2016, with Russia Gate, Ukraine Gate, Impeachment, and then the China Virus and the riots--and more fraudulent bullshit and conspiracies--it doesn't surprise any true Americans that these swine, these filthy, diseased rats, will seek to defraud the election in 2020, and hijack our Republic entirely. They will stop at nothing to gain power--and what the people want, or what the law says, or what the Constitution says--fuck all that. They will scheme to cheat in order to gain power. Mail in voting is one more bullshit element they plan to use to steal the election.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on August 22, 2020, 10:02:15 pm
Quote from: SHARK;1146057
more fraudulent bullshit and conspiracies

That's exactly what we should expect to see from SHARK too.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 22, 2020, 10:25:12 pm
We should be able to create secure online voting with biometric/face recognition and advances in encryption in the next decade, but I doubt we'd see such a system before 2030. Of course, that's not accounting for AI hacking tools which will probably arrive first.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 22, 2020, 11:07:30 pm
Quote from: Spinachcat;1146063
We should be able to create secure online voting with biometric/face recognition and advances in encryption in the next decade, but I doubt we'd see such a system before 2030. Of course, that's not accounting for AI hacking tools which will probably arrive first.
We also have to worry about quantum computers. They might fuck up encryption, and the theoretical ways to guarantee a message has been unread using quantum dynamics may be further off.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on August 23, 2020, 12:11:57 am
Quote from: Pat;1146070
We also have to worry about quantum computers. They might fuck up encryption, and the theoretical ways to guarantee a message has been unread using quantum dynamics may be further off.

Notice how when voting methods come up, suddenly all the people that are very quick to castigate the USA for not following the leads of other countries ... are not interested at all in how it is done elsewhere.  That's because pretty much everywhere else uses paper ballots, often because that is the only way to have a secure method and allow for secure auditing.

The ideal is practically the paper ballot fed on premise through an electronic vote counter--and then the paper ballots secured for audit until the election results are fully certified (that is, once all challenges allowed by the process have been exercised or passed).
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on August 23, 2020, 12:17:44 am
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1146076
Notice how when voting methods come up, suddenly all the people that are very quick to castigate the USA for not following the leads of other countries ... are not interested at all in how it is done elsewhere.  That's because pretty much everywhere else uses paper ballots, often because that is the only way to have a secure method and allow for secure auditing.

The ideal is practically the paper ballot fed on premise through an electronic vote counter--and then the paper ballots secured for audit until the election results are fully certified (that is, once all challenges allowed by the process have been exercised or passed).

Pretty much everywhere else also require voter IDs as part of the law - democrats hate that idea.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on August 24, 2020, 05:21:25 pm
From Politico (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/24/republicanmeltdown-trump-convention-400039)

Quote

It can now safely be said, as his first term in the White House draws toward closure, that Donald Trump's party is the very definition of a cult of personality. It stands for no special ideal. It possesses no organizing principle. It represents no detailed vision for governing. Filling the vacuum is a lazy, identity-based populism that draws from that lowest common denominator Sanford alluded to. If it agitates the base, if it lights up a Fox News chyron, if it serves to alienate sturdy real Americans from delicate coastal elites, then it's got a place in the Grand Old Party.

"Owning the libs and pissing off the media," shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide and imperturbable party veteran if ever there was one. "That's what we believe in now. There's really not much more to it."
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on August 24, 2020, 05:59:32 pm
Here's an interesting summary of cults of personality, by an academic:
https://abandonedfootnotes.blogspot.com/2011/03/simple-model-of-cults-of-personality.html

Cults of personality are traditionally defined as the populace believing outrageous things because they're persuaded those things are correct. Tight control of all sources of information is required, because otherwise people might hear alternatives which make more sense. That clearly doesn't apply to Trump, but does come close to true for the progressive ideology, which controls all mainstream media outlets save one, and is in the process of excluding all alternate voices from social media.

Marquez disputes that definition, correctly in my mind, pointing out that cults of personality aren't really about belief, but about signaling. The student Jun-sang didn't cry at Kim Il-sung's funeral (http://nothingtoenvy.com/) because he believed the Great Leader was truly great, but because people were watching, and his career and even life hinged on showing the proper level of respect. This closely parallels what's happening in response to George Floyd's death, with people being fired for following the wrong person on Twitter and stores putting up Black Lives Matter signs in hopes they won't be looted. They're being forced to signal fealty, in the hopes that they won't be next. What happened in 2016, when the poll results diverged from the election results, is a similar concept called preference falsification. (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674707580) People were lying in public, at work, and to pollster because they feared being punished for expressing their real beliefs. This has all come from the left, with their rising intolerance of alternate viewpoints, and via their hold on education, academia, mainstream and social media, and the social sciences.

Trump's followers are probably better described as status socialists. (http://www.juliansanchez.com/2010/11/04/patriotism-as-status-socialism-or-america-fk-yeah/) When you're in a bad place and have little to be proud of, it's easy to link your self-esteem to a symbol, typically a county. Trump's Make America Great Again appeals to that kind of thinking. But think about that that implies -- Trump's populism isn't appealing to cronyist elitists, it's appealing the disenfranchised.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on August 24, 2020, 09:06:29 pm
It's always hysterical to read articles about how Trump and his supporters have no beliefs, values, etc!! It's not like Trump hasn't given a dozen speeches on his America First ideology, but hey, its the MSM so why should facts matter?

Swamp RINOs have been crying about Trump because Jeb Bush was the Anointed One...Anointed to LOSE to Hillary because like Mittens Romney in 2012, the RINOs don't want to beat the Democrats, but just kick back, enjoy tasty lobbyist dollars and fundraise by continuing their litany of promises to the base. RINOs want "dignified failure" and a demoralized party satisfied by the most minor of "victories".

Trump turned the tables and won when he wasn't supposed to. Hopefully, he'll do it again.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GeekyBugle on August 24, 2020, 09:53:42 pm
:rolleyes:

Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on August 24, 2020, 10:17:40 pm
So I watched some of the DNC convention; it was just depressing. RNC so far has been pretty positive for the most part. Just an observation...
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on August 25, 2020, 08:08:01 am
LOL. Richard 'He's TOTALLY a NAZI!' Spencer endorses the Dems. Of course.

Watching the 2016 campaign was fascinating in that the RNC spent inordinate amounts of resources to prop up Jeb! and later Marco Rubio, all for naught. You'd think they'd have gotten their shit together -- unless, of course, the point was to -lose- to Hillary.
Title: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on August 25, 2020, 08:39:38 am
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1146357
LOL. Richard 'He's TOTALLY a NAZI!' Spencer endorses the Dems. Of course.

Watching the 2016 campaign was fascinating in that the RNC spent inordinate amounts of resources to prop up Jeb! and later Marco Rubio, all for naught. You'd think they'd have gotten their shit together -- unless, of course, the point was to -lose- to Hillary.

It was.

Which is why so many prominent Rs declared themselves "never-Trump". He had the audacity to upset the plan and substitute his own.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 02, 2020, 05:30:39 pm
One part of the Election that pundits follow pretty closely along with polls is the 'money race'.  After outraising Trump in June, Trump pulled in more money than Biden in July - $165 Million to (if memory serves, [edit to reflect correct total]$140 million). 


Trump has not yet released his August numbers, but Biden has raised $364Million+.  This shatters the prior record for fundraising from ANY candidate - Obama's $193 Million haul in September 2008. 


Trump has not yet released his August fundraising total.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 03, 2020, 08:26:17 am
One part of the Election that pundits follow pretty closely along with polls is the 'money race'.  After outraising Trump in June, Trump pulled in more money than Biden in July - $165 Million to (if memory serves, [edit to reflect correct total]$140 million). 


Trump has not yet released his August numbers, but Biden has raised $364Million+.  This shatters the prior record for fundraising from ANY candidate - Obama's $193 Million haul in September 2008. 


Trump has not yet released his August fundraising total.
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 03, 2020, 09:31:04 am
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.


None.  But I suppose you could argue that some outside groups will feel that they don't have to pitch in to amplify Biden's message, so they'll be free to divert funds to other priorities, including paying cash bail for places that still have it.  I don't know that there is anything wrong with that.  In this country you're innocent until proven guilty, so being held in prison seems like a violation of our freedom. 


Here's an Article (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/criminal-justice/reports/2020/03/16/481543/ending-cash-bail/) about Cash Bail Reform. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 03, 2020, 02:49:13 pm

None.  But I suppose you could argue that some outside groups will feel that they don't have to pitch in to amplify Biden's message, so they'll be free to divert funds to other priorities, including paying cash bail for places that still have it.  I don't know that there is anything wrong with that.  In this country you're innocent until proven guilty, so being held in prison seems like a violation of our freedom. 

Here's an Article (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/criminal-justice/reports/2020/03/16/481543/ending-cash-bail/) about Cash Bail Reform.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ


Hey, look at that. How totally unexpected. Democrats supporting violent thugs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 03, 2020, 03:16:53 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-biden-bail/biden-staff-donate-to-group-that-pays-bail-in-riot-torn-minneapolis-idUSKBN2360SZ)


Hey, look at that. How totally unexpected. Democrats supporting violent thugs.
The nerve of you pointing this out! I mean, some of those people were merely getting bread for their families.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 06:58:08 am
Wonder how much of Biden's haul is going to bail out BLM/Antifa terrorists.


If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 04, 2020, 07:52:39 am
The nerve of you pointing this out! I mean, some of those people were merely getting bread for their families.
And it's not like anyone got hurt, I mean, those businesses have insurance... /sarc.
Minneapolis is gonna look like Detroit in a year, barring some serious intervention.


If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Yeah, I know about ActBlue. Can't help but wonder if some of it's being funneled back to keep their magic riot machine rolling.


Speaking of Antifa terrorism, Michael Reinoehl, accused of murdering Aaron Danielson, was caught in Washington and decided to shoot it out with U.S. Marshals.


(cue up 'I Fought The Law And The Law Won')


So yeah, Reinoehl's now room temperature. Y'know, between the U.S. marshals recovering 50+ lost and trafficked children, and this, I'm starting to like those guys :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 04, 2020, 08:39:15 am
Speaking of Antifa terrorism, Michael Reinoehl, accused of murdering Aaron Danielson, was caught in Washington and decided to shoot it out with U.S. Marshals.


(cue up 'I Fought The Law And The Law Won')


So yeah, Reinoehl's now room temperature. Y'know, between the U.S. marshals recovering 50+ lost and trafficked children, and this, I'm starting to like those guys :)
It's about to get even better.  U.S. Marshals office can deputize state and local law enforcement to act under their authority.  Which means that when they make an arrest, it's under federal law. So much for the marxist trick of making sure to commit their crimes with a Soros-paid DA.
Rook to h8.  Your move, scum. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 04, 2020, 10:02:05 am
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 04, 2020, 10:22:00 am
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on September 04, 2020, 10:58:36 am
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.


Comparing this to the thousands of men in blue that are die hard conservatives that 175 is laughable.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 01:15:22 pm
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


*digs in*


So you've got Noble Wray, who was hired by the Obama DOJ to head up a 'police accountability project'. Yeah, no bias there.


Janet Napolitano is a Democrat political wonk. Pfft.


Tom Manger's been running his mouth for a while, presumably trying to construct a political platform for bigger things. He's whined about Trump detaining illegal immigrants and stripping federal funds from cities blatantly flouting immigration law enforcement.


Yeah, somehow I don't feel any urgency here.


When Carmen Best publicly supports Joe Biden as the "Great White Hope" for the Presidency of the US, I'll pay attention. So far that list is a bunch of democrat political hacks.


deadDMwalking, You Must Build Additional Pylons!! I mean, You Must Try Harder!!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 02:17:33 pm
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on September 04, 2020, 03:01:31 pm
Were any of the Yankees here around and old enough for the 1972 election?  I'm just wondering how living that compares to living the current DemoKKKrat freak out.  I can't imagine the media was that much different back then.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 04, 2020, 03:08:38 pm
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 04, 2020, 03:16:24 pm
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expenditures.php?cycle=2020&cmte=c00401224


https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/expenditures.php?cmte=C00401224&cycle=2020


https://secure.actblue.com/


There you go.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 03:38:46 pm
If you follow the money trail, most of the money raised by BLM goes to support democrat politicians being elected anyways.
Do you have a citation for that? The argument I've seen is that if you click on donate on BLM's website, it goes to ActBlue, and that means it's being funneled to Democratic politicians. But ActBlue is really just a service they use to process the money, it's not the recipient. Many involved with BLM will support Democratic politicians, and there will be indirect effects, but it doesn't seem like there's a direct flow of money.


https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expenditures.php?cycle=2020&cmte=c00401224


https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/expenditures.php?cmte=C00401224&cycle=2020


https://secure.actblue.com/


There you go.
That's my point. That's not what any of that says. ActBlue is basically an online payment processor, which allows people to donate to different organizations (mostly blue politicians, but also BLM). It's not taking money from BLM, and handing it out to Biden and Bernie. It's the service that Biden, Bernie, and BLM use to take payments from people who are donating to those specific organizations. Think of it like American Express or PayPal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 04, 2020, 04:10:37 pm
Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
I thought Bannon was some kind of campaign architect, but after googling a bit it sounds like he was arrested for something related to fund raising. But my knowledge on the subject is too little to know what you mean.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 04, 2020, 06:02:56 pm
Dammit Pat. You're shooting holes in the SDNY's case against Bannon/Kolfage with those kinds of questions...  ;D
I thought Bannon was some kind of campaign architect, but after googling a bit it sounds like he was arrested for something related to fund raising. But my knowledge on the subject is too little to know what you mean.


Bannon was involved in a GoFundMe scam where people were donating their own money to build the wall that Mexico was supposed to pay for, but mostly he just kept the money.    He could consider his 'management' a billable expense but it certainly wasn't disclosed to donors and is scummy even if it does not turn out to be explicitly illegal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 04, 2020, 10:48:40 pm
Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsements-law-enforcement) - More Than 175 current, former law enforcement officials endorse Joe Biden, slam Trump as 'lawless' president


https://twitter.com/GLFOP/status/1301887833012133894


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhE74y0WoAALiNx?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 12:04:53 am

That's my point. That's not what any of that says. ActBlue is basically an online payment processor, which allows people to donate to different organizations (mostly blue politicians, but also BLM). It's not taking money from BLM, and handing it out to Biden and Bernie. It's the service that Biden, Bernie, and BLM use to take payments from people who are donating to those specific organizations. Think of it like American Express or PayPal.


Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?




Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 05, 2020, 03:23:12 am
Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?
Because they're explicitly a leftist organization. BLM presumably uses them because they're an effective fund raising tool, as well as being fellow travelers.

Found a better reference than Wikipedia:
https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/
https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/

ActBlue started out as a website in 2004, created specifically to help Democratic candidates collect funds from a lot of smaller donors. They provide a number services, like allowing donors to save their credit card and use it to donate to multiple candidates, automating the filling out of fund raising forms, a variety of tools for optimizing fund raising campaigns, as well as relatively low transaction fees. The Republicans don't have an equivalent organization, which hobbles their ability to raise money from lots of small donors.

ActBlue is broken into a three separate branches, each supporting a different type of legal entity. One of the three is a PAC, the other two are 501(c)3 and 501(c)4 charitable/social welfare organizations, and each supports their own kind. All three provide the same basic fund raising platform services, and the funds they collect (minus transaction fees) are passed through to the entities chosen by the donors, rather than being distributed at ActBlue's discretion. All the groups they support are progressive, and the ones I recognize include the charities GLAAD, Mother Jones, and the Southern Poverty Law Center; the social welfare groups ACLU, NOW, and Planned Parenthood; and a bunch of PACs (which I don't know by name).

There's also a for-profit branch (an LLC), but it's unclear what its role is. Though it may be the original -- the three branches above were founded between 2009 and 2015, but the website dates to 2004.

This link has some more detail about the services ActBlue provides and where the money goes:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
"ActBlue works with candidates at the local, state, and national levels -- from school board races to presidential campaigns -- to squeeze every dollar out of their email fundraising pleas or the ubiquitous 'Donate' button on their websites," Kroll wrote.  "Engineers streamline the process of giving to a campaign or cause.  They toy with typefaces, reduce load times, and adapt the product to all devices and operating systems.  Like an Olympic sprinter in training, ActBlue obsesses over shaving off every millisecond."
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
[ActBlue] charges nothing for its services.  (It takes 4 percent of every donation to cover credit card processing fees.)  Operating costs are paid with tips left by donors and the occasional fundraising campaign.
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
The average contribution size [in 2017, including all 3 branches] was a very-"grassrootsy" $31.95.  More than half of all donors gave for the first time in 2017, and just over 40 percent of all contributions were made from a mobile device.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 05:56:21 pm
Then why does it have a large number of democrat candidates as recipients of ActBlue money and no other political party candidates of note?


Why does BLM use ActBlue to process the donation and not PayPal or American Express?

ActBlue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ActBlue#:~:text=ActBlue%20is%20a%20nonprofit%20technology,empower%20small%2Ddollar%20donors%22.) is listed as a left-leaning PAC to help Democrat candidates, so why is BLM using them as a processor and not a neutral one?
Because they're explicitly a leftist organization. BLM presumably uses them because they're an effective fund raising tool, as well as being fellow travelers.

Found a better reference than Wikipedia:
https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/political-party/actblue-pac/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-civics/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/actblue-charities/)
https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/ (https://www.influencewatch.org/for-profit/actblue-llc/)

ActBlue started out as a website in 2004, created specifically to help Democratic candidates collect funds from a lot of smaller donors. They provide a number services, like allowing donors to save their credit card and use it to donate to multiple candidates, automating the filling out of fund raising forms, a variety of tools for optimizing fund raising campaigns, as well as relatively low transaction fees. The Republicans don't have an equivalent organization, which hobbles their ability to raise money from lots of small donors.

ActBlue is broken into a three separate branches, each supporting a different type of legal entity. One of the three is a PAC, the other two are 501(c)3 and 501(c)4 charitable/social welfare organizations, and each supports their own kind. All three provide the same basic fund raising platform services, and the funds they collect (minus transaction fees) are passed through to the entities chosen by the donors, rather than being distributed at ActBlue's discretion. All the groups they support are progressive, and the ones I recognize include the charities GLAAD, Mother Jones, and the Southern Poverty Law Center; the social welfare groups ACLU, NOW, and Planned Parenthood; and a bunch of PACs (which I don't know by name).

There's also a for-profit branch (an LLC), but it's unclear what its role is. Though it may be the original -- the three branches above were founded between 2009 and 2015, but the website dates to 2004.

This link has some more detail about the services ActBlue provides and where the money goes:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/01/23/actblue_fundraising_platform_strikes_gold_--_for_liberals_136068.html)
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
"ActBlue works with candidates at the local, state, and national levels -- from school board races to presidential campaigns -- to squeeze every dollar out of their email fundraising pleas or the ubiquitous 'Donate' button on their websites," Kroll wrote.  "Engineers streamline the process of giving to a campaign or cause.  They toy with typefaces, reduce load times, and adapt the product to all devices and operating systems.  Like an Olympic sprinter in training, ActBlue obsesses over shaving off every millisecond."
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
[ActBlue] charges nothing for its services.  (It takes 4 percent of every donation to cover credit card processing fees.)  Operating costs are paid with tips left by donors and the occasional fundraising campaign.
Quote from: Real Clear Politics
The average contribution size [in 2017, including all 3 branches] was a very-"grassrootsy" $31.95.  More than half of all donors gave for the first time in 2017, and just over 40 percent of all contributions were made from a mobile device.


So, BLM which uses ActBlue, which is a self-proclaimed leftist payment processor, does not funnel money in support of liberal democrats running for office. So where does the money that BLM raises go? I'm asking because from what I can see, including what you have shown me, it still looks like a lot of it is going to support liberal democrat candidates.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 05, 2020, 06:53:23 pm
So, BLM which uses ActBlue, which is a self-proclaimed leftist payment processor, does not funnel money in support of liberal democrats running for office. So where does the money that BLM raises go? I'm asking because from what I can see, including what you have shown me, it still looks like a lot of it is going to support liberal democrat candidates.
I don't know where the money BLM raises is going. Looking around, it's an open question, because they're not very transparent. They've denied giving money directly to the DNC, and claim it's going to "civic engagement, expansion of chapters, Arts & Culture, organizing and digital advocacy resources and tools" (from an AskReddit thread), but that's pretty vague. For all we know, some of it may go to activism and candidates. At the very least, advocacy and engagement is likely to favor Democrats and Democratic causes, for a spillover effect. But that would be BLM acting directly, and unrelated to ActBlue.

I was mistaken about one thing: There is a Republican equivalent to ActBlue, called WinRed. Though it's new, formed in response to the record $700 million ActBlue raised in the 2018 midterms. WinRed is functionally about a year old, and there's been some pushback because apparently the fees and higher and at least some GOP candidates want to use other fund raising platforms (like Anedot).
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/16/backlash_ensues_as_rncs_winred_fundraising_hammer_falls.html

Do some more digging, it looks like the umbrella Black Lives Matter organization, called the Black Lives Matter Global Network (the "Global" is a recent addition), is a corporation, not a charity. They're the ones with the big ActBlue DONATE button on their website, but since ActBlue Charities only works with 501(c)3 organizations, that money technically goes to the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, which is "fiscally sponsored" by a 501(c)3 non-profit.

Their original sponsor (2016) was Thousand Currents, but after TC decided to stop sponsoring other organizations in order to focus more on their core mission, that role was taken over by Tides (in July 2020). Fiscal sponsorship is intended for organizations that plan to seek 501(c)3 status, but don't yet qualify (like not having a board, or not having filed in a state, or whatever). Looks like the sponsor creates a fund, which it uses to make grants to the sponsored group; or the sponsored group becomes legally part of the sponsor (probably the first).

The various chapters in different cities are independent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/the-story-behind-thousand-currents-the-charity-that-doles-out-the-millions-of-dollars-black-lives-matter-generates-in-donations/ar-BB15Ytxo
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/donations-to-black-lives-matter-group-dont-go-to-dnc/
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-1108/141260/20200409134118279_19-1108BriefOfRespondent.pdf
https://www.peoples-law.org/fiscal-sponsorship-alternative-filing-501c3-tax-exempt-status
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 05, 2020, 11:24:12 pm

Do some more digging, it looks like the umbrella Black Lives Matter organization, called the Black Lives Matter Global Network (the "Global" is a recent addition), is a corporation, not a charity.


Way ahead of you. From over three months ago.


Quote from: jeff37923, DriveThruRPG Supporting BLM[font=verdana
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2020, 08:28:26 AM »][/font]

I'm pretty concerned where and how my money is being spent when I donate it. It isn't just Black Lives Matter, it is Black Lives Matter Foundation Incorporated. They are a business, but they are not a non-profit 501(3)c. They are also only six years old. So how is money that is donated to them spent? What percentage is used for overhead? How much gets to the people they are trying to help?

You and estar can use your IP and spend your money however you like. My take on this is that if you really want to help out blacks in America,  then your donations of money might be better spent on the NAACP or the UNCF although neither is topical in the media right now.[/quote]

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 08, 2020, 01:52:03 pm
Zuckerberg apparently thinks the media "should work to convince the American public there is nothing illegitimate, strange, or suspect about the results [of the] upcoming presidential election".
https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/

It's not the job of the media to decide what happens before it happens and to suppress any opposing views. That's the job of the Ministry of Truth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 08, 2020, 02:48:07 pm
Zuckerberg apparently thinks the media "should work to convince the American public there is nothing illegitimate, strange, or suspect about the results [of the] upcoming presidential election".
https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/ (https://nationalfile.com/zuckerberg-election-may-take-weeks-and-cause-civil-unrest-until-media-creates-consensus-on-next-president/)

It's not the job of the media to decide what happens before it happens and to suppress any opposing views. That's the job of the Ministry of Truth.
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 08, 2020, 07:49:56 pm
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
I used to think Aldous Huxley had predicted the future better, but it's becoming easier and easier to quote Orwell.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 09, 2020, 08:13:23 am
Nice one.  Glad I wasn't drinking, or you'd owe me a new keyboard. :)
I used to think Aldous Huxley had predicted the future better, but it's becoming easier and easier to quote Orwell.
At this rate, it's the two of them keeping score while sitting on a park bench in the afterlife while sharing a bottle of good booze.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Garry G on September 09, 2020, 10:37:21 am
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”
[/size][/color]
[/size]I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community. [/color]
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 01:18:21 pm
I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.
Based on my experience, no one is welcome here. So he'd be just as unwelcome as the other animals.

Orwell lived in tumultuous times, and his views changed as the world did. He was a rationalist and an intellectual who despised religion, though he attended Anglican services throughout his life. He saw the rise of the Soviet Union, of fascism in Italy and Germany, and first hand in Spain, where he became a socialist while in a hospital bed, after supporting the anarchists against Franco in the Civil War. He created an anarchist theory that all government was evil, but believed that government had to exist to protect people from injustice. At his core, he seemed to value individual freedom and self-determination, and opposed totalitarianism with ever fiber of his being, which is what most people, when they aren't cherry picking to find favor or disfavor for specific personal beliefs, will find in 1984 and Animal Farm.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 09, 2020, 01:35:30 pm
On July 1st, Trump and the RNC released their June fundraising totals ($131 Million).  His June fundraising was eclipsed by Biden.  On August 5th, Trump and the RNC released their fundraising totals ($165 million) after Biden had announced his.  The June fundraising was a surprise; incumbents usually have the fundraising advantage.  Biden's fund raising in August was $365 million and here it is, September 9th, and Trump and the RNC have yet to announce their fundraising totals.  If it had been anywhere north of $190 million, they certainly would have been able to spin this as ALSO breaking the previous fundraising record held by Barrack Obama. 

Excluding mega-donors, more than $200 million to the Biden campaign came from small dollar donations (ie, just focusing on 'real Americans' would have been enough by itself to have broken the previous record).  While the August figures for the RNC have not yet been released, the Trump campaign is in a cash crunch (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/politics/trump-election-campaign-fundraising.html).  The Trump campaign defends the $800 Million they've already spent as building infrastructure to compete with ActBlue.  In the last two weeks of August, the Biden campaign spent $35 million on advertising compared to Trump's $5 million. 

An article detailing the current ad spends (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html) shows Biden with $182 million being spent in the Battleground States to $158 million; of the 10 battleground states identified, Trump won all but one; as a result he is 'playing defense'. 

Trump began fundraising for re-election immediately after assuming office; he has raised $1.2 billion through July.  With July's fundraising total, Biden has now raised over $1 billion as well.




Edit - Trump just announced his August fundraising. $210 Million (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/biden-outraised-trump-150-million-410832)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 02:32:47 pm
I'd be curious to see a breakdown of how much Trump got from small donors. ActBlue is a serious advantage for the Democrats.

I'm finding quotes like this (Biden): "Last month we raised $364.5 million -- 95% of the donations from grassroots supporters like you and the majority online." Which doesn't seem to match the $200 million from small donors you found, but he could be playing games with the word "grassroots".
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-raises-a-record-3645-million-in-august-164352924.html
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 09, 2020, 03:53:30 pm
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.


Hell, man. Someone who could actually make good arguments for democratic socialism without flipping their shit if someone disagrees would be fine. And anyone against totalitarianism is OK with me.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 09, 2020, 03:54:58 pm
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize-by-norwegian-official (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize-by-norwegian-official)


If Obama could get one for no appreciable reason I can see, why not Trump? We can actually point out something specific Trump did to promote peace in the middle east.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 09, 2020, 04:46:40 pm
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.


Hell, man. Someone who could actually make good arguments for democratic socialism without flipping their shit if someone disagrees would be fine. And anyone against totalitarianism is OK with me.
QFT
There's a reason Orwell is respected by those of us opposed to socialism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 09, 2020, 05:01:02 pm
On July 1st, Trump and the RNC released their June fundraising totals ($131 Million).  His June fundraising was eclipsed by Biden.  On August 5th, Trump and the RNC released their fundraising totals ($165 million) after Biden had announced his.  The June fundraising was a surprise; incumbents usually have the fundraising advantage.  Biden's fund raising in August was $365 million and here it is, September 9th, and Trump and the RNC have yet to announce their fundraising totals.  If it had been anywhere north of $190 million, they certainly would have been able to spin this as ALSO breaking the previous fundraising record held by Barrack Obama. 

Excluding mega-donors, more than $200 million to the Biden campaign came from small dollar donations (ie, just focusing on 'real Americans' would have been enough by itself to have broken the previous record).  While the August figures for the RNC have not yet been released, the Trump campaign is in a cash crunch (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/politics/trump-election-campaign-fundraising.html).  The Trump campaign defends the $800 Million they've already spent as building infrastructure to compete with ActBlue.  In the last two weeks of August, the Biden campaign spent $35 million on advertising compared to Trump's $5 million. 

An article detailing the current ad spends (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/battlegrounds-campaign-ad-spending/index.html) shows Biden with $182 million being spent in the Battleground States to $158 million; of the 10 battleground states identified, Trump won all but one; as a result he is 'playing defense'. 

Trump began fundraising for re-election immediately after assuming office; he has raised $1.2 billion through July.  With July's fundraising total, Biden has now raised over $1 billion as well.




Edit - Trump just announced his August fundraising. $210 Million (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/biden-outraised-trump-150-million-410832)
Jesus, you need to try a little harder...
First it was polls, polls, polls even though I pointed out that public polls are meant to sway opinion, not report on it.  A better indicator of the internal polling was what the campaigns did.
Now its money, money, money...
A) Hardly surprising since all the Neocon warmongers are supporting Biden.
B) I'm just gonna leave this here... https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/ (https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 09, 2020, 08:55:17 pm
“Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”

I'm not sure Orwell would be a valued member of this community.
Is this one of those, "Nazis weren't socialists!," comments?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 09, 2020, 09:55:14 pm
Every now and then things simplify to two sides:  Those that want to control what everyone else does and those that don't like that.  When you are in the second group and in one of those times, you'll take any reliable person in the fox hole, even if in a more peaceful time you might be opponents.  Get the control freaks out of the picture, then the rest of us can go back to arguing about the borders on less weighty issues.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 09, 2020, 11:01:13 pm
Is this one of those, "Nazis weren't socialists!," comments?
Absolutely not, Orwell criticized every major strain of socialism and every major socialist figure of his time. He was a universal gadfly or critic of excesses or affronts to common decency.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 10, 2020, 08:08:14 am
I suspect Orwell was learning the sad lesson -- that socialism and communism (BIRM) simply set up a new form of feudal style governance, because of human nature.


Thomas Sowell's Vision of the Anointed is very useful if you want to pursue this line of thought.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 10, 2020, 09:26:52 am
I don't think Orwell learned that lesson, because he remained sympathetic to socialism until the end. But while he was widely read in socialist thought -- his personal library was huge -- he seemed to idealize the community-minded workers ruled by common decency, over the theoretical edifices created by intellectuals. This is me guessing nothing more, but I'd say he liked the dream of socialism but never really reconciled the utopian ideals he admired with the inevitable consequences. Since he wasn't the type to cleave to one side, and defend it at all costs, while attacking all others, as many do today, he ended up savaging the failures of his fellow travelers far more than he criticized those on the opposite end of the spectrum, simply because he was more familiar with their shortcomings.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Anthony Pacheco on September 12, 2020, 05:06:43 pm
I suspect Orwell was learning the sad lesson -- that socialism and communism (BIRM) simply set up a new form of feudal style governance, because of human nature.


Thomas Sowell's Vision of the Anointed is very useful if you want to pursue this line of thought.

I concur with this Sowell recommendation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on September 15, 2020, 06:58:46 pm
  I have to LOL at mentioning democratic "fund raising" without mentioning a GIANT ELEPHANT in the room that is likely the source of said fund raising.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 16, 2020, 01:50:34 am
Oggsmash, you're talking crazy!

It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 16, 2020, 10:03:32 am
Oggsmash, you're talking crazy!

It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!
And conversely, funds from the Biden/Harris campaign were being funneled into bail funds to bail out arrested BLM/Antifa rioters.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on September 16, 2020, 10:32:34 am
The weather is pretty fine in Texas, boys.


Sure we got some mild infection in Austin. But that's Austin, they'll figure it out. When the Rifts open, count on Lone Star.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 16, 2020, 01:55:29 pm
It's not like Burn Loot Murder was funneling money directly to ActBlue on their website so every BLM supporting imbecile's donations to "fight waaaaycism" actually went to Dementia Joe Joe!
You're correct, they're not doing that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 16, 2020, 07:56:46 pm
You're correct, they're not doing that.

Because this link doesn't exist on the BLM homepage?It's the big blue square that says Donate!https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019 (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019)
Imagine that! Avowed marxists and domestic terrorists tied at the hip with the DNC's fundraising engine.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 16, 2020, 09:31:57 pm
You're correct, they're not doing that.

Because this link doesn't exist on the BLM homepage?It's the big blue square that says Donate!https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019 (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ms_blm_homepage_2019)
Imagine that! Avowed marxists and domestic terrorists tied at the hip with the DNC's fundraising engine.
We covered this, two or three pages back. Your interpretation is completely wrong.

ActBlue is a fund raising platform, that helps progressive organizations and candidates raise money for those specific organizations and candidates. If you click on the big DONATE on Joe Biden's website, it goes to his campaign, minus a fairly modest transaction fee (about 4%, IIRC). If you click on the big DONATE on the BLM website, it's slightly more complex because BLM is a for-profit company and ActBlue doesn't work with non-profits. So BLM has a foundation that's presumably applying for non-profit status, but in the meantime is being sponsored by Tides, which shares their 503(c)3 status with the BLM foundation. So it's a little more complex because of IRS legal classifications, but it amounts to the same thing: Minus the transaction fees, the money from that big DONATE button on the BLM website goes to BLM (though it's handled by a specific foundation).

ActBlue isn't some secret foundation that takes all the money when you click DONATE on any of those sites, and then distributes it however they want. They're not a Cobalt United Way.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 17, 2020, 04:56:41 am
Pat, the financial shenanigans involving 501(c)3 fundraising was so outrageous even Colbert addressed it back before he lost his brain to TDS.


I'm sure there's no connection whatsoever that Biden had his mega-fundraising happen exactly when BLM became the 24/7 media focus and corporations were dumping millions into BLM (via ActBlue) as protection money, oops, I meant to fight oppression.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 17, 2020, 07:42:34 am
You're confusing completely different things. Colbert mocked Super PACs by creating one and abusing the rules. But a PAC is a 527 organization, not a 501(c)3, which are charities like the Red Cross. Act Blue has separate branches providing support to progressive PACs, 501(c)3s, and 501(c)4s (the latter are primarily social welfare groups), and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.

Biden uses the ActBlue organization for PACs. BLM uses the one for 501(c)3s. So you're arguing that they're funneling money from charities to political advocacy groups, which is an egregious violation of I don't know how many rules in an area with lots of legal and financial scrutiny. That's roughly equivalent to accusing Hillary of eating babies. Which is certainly possible, but you need at least a shred of evidence to even qualify as a conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 18, 2020, 12:16:15 am
and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.
Control freaky like when the IRS targeted conservative non-profits and fundraising groups under Obama, but magically all the campaign finance issues surrounding AOC and Ilhan Omar vanish like pixie dust?

Definitely "control freaky"...but only in one direction.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 04:19:10 am
and they have to be legally distinct and meet strict requirements because campaign financing laws and the IRS are more than a little control freaky about things like that.
Control freaky like when the IRS targeted conservative non-profits and fundraising groups under Obama, but magically all the campaign finance issues surrounding AOC and Ilhan Omar vanish like pixie dust?

Definitely "control freaky"...but only in one direction.
You're just moving the goalposts and attempting to tar by association. We're not talking about AOC or Ilhan Omar, maybe a million dollars, abuse of loopholes or vagueness in campaign finance rules exploited by specific campaigns in ways that were clearly unethical but possibly legal, specific details about what happened in both cases, articles in the media that covered all that, and an investigation by authorities. We're talking about ActBlue, hundreds of millions of dollars, an absurd claim with no credible mechanism and no specific details, no articles in the media just vague conspiracy theories based on complete misunderstanding of the basic role of ActBlue, and no formal investigations.

There are definitely problems with bias in how things are approved or whether investigations go forward, but that's what happens when you give the fourth branch of government (the bureaucracy) broad discretion to make judgment calls, as in approving non-profits or selectively deciding which laws to enforce.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 18, 2020, 08:23:14 am
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 11:05:56 am
I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 18, 2020, 11:26:36 am
I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
When they're not getting it from China.


The Black Futures Lab, an outgrowth of BLM, is receiving a nice paycheck from the Chinese Progressive Association.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 11:53:30 am
When they're not getting it from China.


The Black Futures Lab, an outgrowth of BLM, is receiving a nice paycheck from the Chinese Progressive Association.
"our commitment to use our political strength to stop corporate influences from creeping into progressive policies"

Literally laughed out loud at this. These people are fucking insane.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 12:16:22 pm
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Did you hit your head? Because we're not talking about that. Spinachcat claimed that the money given to BLM when someone clicks on the big DONATE button on their website really goes to Joe Biden's campaign. I pointed out there's zero evidence for it. There's not even a plausible mechanism by which it can happen.

Spinachcat replied by bringing up campaign finance irregularities with AOC and Ilhan Omar's campaigns, which has nothing to do with ActBlue or BLM. Completely different organizations, probably completely different people, and none of the methods they used would transfer over because their organizational structures and legal requirements are completely different. So it was just a smokescreen, which provides no evidence that BLM is passing money to Biden via ActBlue, or even a method by which it might have been done. So yes, it's an attempt to tar by association. It's equivalent to saying water is blue, so that means anything blue is wet.

I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I'm sure some of their money ends up supporting them, via individual contributions or PACs. But that's not what we're talking about. Please don't carry over reflexive tribalism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 18, 2020, 12:20:25 pm
Tar by association? Pat, did you hit your head?


We don't have to tar by association. The Democrats have been happily supporting the rioting lowlifes for some time now. Hell, they're throttling BACK the riots because it's wreaking havoc on the Dems' poll numbers.
Did you hit your head? Because we're not talking about that. Spinachcat claimed that the money given to BLM when someone clicks on the big DONATE button on their website really goes to Joe Biden's campaign. I pointed out there's zero evidence for it. There's not even a plausible mechanism by which it can happen.

Spinachcat replied by bringing up campaign finance irregularities with AOC and Ilhan Omar's campaigns, which has nothing to do with ActBlue or BLM. Completely different organizations, probably completely different people, and none of the methods they used would transfer over because their organizational structures and legal requirements are completely different. So it was just a smokescreen, which provides no evidence that BLM is passing money to Biden via ActBlue, or even a method by which it might have been done. So yes, it's an attempt to tar by association. It's equivalent to saying water is blue, so that means anything blue is wet.

I see Pat is doing the same thing he did in the other thread...claiming there is no obvious link between things because, well, reasons?

BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I'm sure some of their money ends up supporting them, via individual contributions or PACs. But that's not what we're talking about. Please don't carry over reflexive tribalism.


There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 18, 2020, 02:14:23 pm
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .


Is what it’s come when having a discussion. Agree with the poster or one is “insert word” ist or a victim of “insert word” ism.
Mi can do too when a discussion is not going my way lol 😂.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 18, 2020, 02:29:36 pm
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 18, 2020, 02:45:08 pm
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.
Nahh
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 18, 2020, 02:46:58 pm
So once again if a poster disagrees with another it’s “ Triablism” .
Nope. When people don't address any of the arguments I've made, and instead make false claims about what I believe, or make short responses that seem to have nothing to do with what I said, in today's climate the reasonable assumption is it's an example of tribalism. Tribalism is about taking sides, and characteristics include looking for superficial signs that someone is an enemy, then ascribing them a mass of characteristics and beliefs that have been assigned to that enemy, and then responding to those characteristics in a rote way, instead of addressing what was actually said. Your post, Brad's, and Jeff's all seem to be display those characteristics. There's nothing in those posts to address except the assumptions you're making, because there's no content. Ghostmaker by contrast appears to be reading things I never said into what I actually said, but seems to be trying to carry on a real discussion.

Note I'd prefer to address an actual argument, counterpoint, or something else that we can at least talk about.


So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 18, 2020, 08:07:30 pm
I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt Pat except when an discussion does not go your way you toss out everyone is being Tribalistic".


To myself at least you don't really like push-back during a discussion. You want to hear what you want to hear and nothing else. With everyone at fault or in error.


It comes off wanting an echo chamber and not wanting to engage.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Chris24601 on September 18, 2020, 09:23:02 pm
So, Ruth Bader-Ginsberg has died.


And you thought this election was going to be insane before.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 19, 2020, 12:56:40 am
So, Ruth Bader-Ginsberg has died.


And you thought this election was going to be insane before.


My favorite reaction so far.


https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330


I'm like, bitch, have you looked out a window lately?


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 01:15:01 pm
I would like to give you the benefit of the doubt Pat except when an discussion does not go your way you toss out everyone is being Tribalistic".


To myself at least you don't really like push-back during a discussion. You want to hear what you want to hear and nothing else. With everyone at fault or in error.


It comes off wanting an echo chamber and not wanting to engage.
I've mentioned tribalism in exactly two discussions, and this time it only came up because Brad butted into the discussion with a dismissive and contentless reference to the earlier thread, so I asked him not to. So this pattern of behavior you're claiming I have is based on one instance, and second explicit request that we not do this again.

You should look in a mirror. The overreaction by you and others is a much stronger pattern.

And I tend to thrive when there's pushback, just look at the discussion I was having with Spinachcat before the rest of you jumped in. I was explaining how things work, and presenting arguments and evidence.

In contrast, none of you have done that. Your responses in both the previous thread and now in this one have been almost utterly devoid of content, amounting to "nah", telling me your (negative and false) impressions of me (like this post of yours), or putting words in my mouth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 01:15:40 pm
So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
I don't have a tribe.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 19, 2020, 02:30:42 pm
So, you are admitting to engaging in tribalism?
I don't have a tribe.


So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?


Who among our clans shall take in this lonely one? To give it a home and hearth. To grant it an ideology worthy of its daring?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 19, 2020, 02:38:35 pm
I've mentioned tribalism in exactly two discussions, and this time it only came up because Brad butted into the discussion with a dismissive and contentless reference to the earlier thread, so I asked him not to. So this pattern of behavior you're claiming I have is based on one instance, and second explicit request that we not do this again.
You are just completely unable to admit when you're wrong, even when presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Clutch those pearls!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 19, 2020, 02:55:36 pm
So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?
Nope. It seems to be desperately important to you, though.

You are just completely unable to admit when you're wrong, even when presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Clutch those pearls!
Zero is overwhelming? Because you certainly haven't provided a single shred of evidence,.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 19, 2020, 03:34:39 pm
So all of these contrarian posts are your attempt at announcing that you'd like to be adopted by a tribe?
Nope. It seems to be desperately important to you, though.


It is, because I am laughing at your antics.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 19, 2020, 04:20:19 pm
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
In my experience, that doesn't apply to Pat.

He (or she, it's Pat!) is always fun to joust with because while Pat staunchly (or some say stubbornly) holds to his positions (as I do too), Pat always seems TO ME to be willing to look at other perspectives and evidence. 



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 20, 2020, 05:45:58 pm

My favorite reaction so far.


https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330 (https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330)


I'm like, bitch, have you looked out a window lately?
Saw that. Would like to see him sitting in an interrogation room downtown, explaining why he wasn't making terroristic threats. But then, I've gotten tired of these low life blue checkmarks talking big when it's not their asses on the line.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 20, 2020, 06:18:12 pm
This RBG situation is entirely the fault of her hubris. Nobody else.
She was severely ill during Obama's 2nd term. She could have stepped down, helped oversee the choice and nomination of her replacement. She would have spent her last days being lauded by law schools and the media as the Queen of the Law. Nope. She CHOOSE to spend her last days nodding off on the job and barely existing until the eventual occurred.

"Notorious RBG" now exists as a stark object lesson. If Trump somehow wins and keeps the Senate, then the old conservative supremes need to ride into their sunset and let younger, equally (or more) conservative judges take their seats.

Plus, the Democrats have already promised to expand the Supreme Court and pack the seats, so let's bring on civil war or submission.

Let's really see what's left in America's nutsack.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on September 20, 2020, 07:27:28 pm
BLM funnels money directly to the Democrat party. This is indisputable.
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 07:13:02 am
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
That's a more reasonable claim, though you can have obscene salaries, fat expense accounts, and fund all your pet projects without violating any laws. The real question is what kind of financial stewardship Thousand Currents, or Tides as of a month or two ago, are providing. Those are the two charities that have lent BLM their 501(c)3 status, which means the money from ActBlue went to them, to manage for the BLM Foundation. That's enough layers of indirection to hide some sins, but both Tides and Thousands Currents have been around for 30 or more years, so at the very least they know how to handle the accounting and maintain a semblance of propriety.

I'm not familiar with either, so I looked them both up in Charity Navigator. Thousand Currents seems quite reputable. They're global, and get a high rating for financial accountability and transparency. Tides on the other hand gets a failing score. Which could suggest something about why BLM switched, though Thousand Currents claims that the reason BLM left is because TC decided to sunset their financial sponsorship program. Note while they're both a respectable size for a charity, they're fairly small, compared to the money BLM is bringing in -- TC has an annual revenue of about $6 million, and Tides is somewhat smaller at about $4 million.

Though how much BLM has raised is an open question. One hint is that in June, their Foundation announced a $6.5 million plan to support "grassroots" organizing (for definitions of "grassroots" that allow for funding from above, I assume). They also have plans in media and education, and have been sponsoring artists since 2015.

Okay, this is weird. Looked up BLM in Charity Navigator, and found the BLM Foundation, which has a "moderate" advisory that mentions a cease & desist order from the attorneys general of NY and California, and a Buzzfeed article that says the BLM Foundation has zero ties to the BLM organization that gets all the press:
Quote
The Black Lives Matter Foundation, a Santa Clarita, California–based charitable organization that has one paid employee and lists a UPS store as its address, has a very different goal, according to its founder: “bringing the community and police closer together.”
...
“I don't have anything to do with the Black Lives Matter Global Network. I never met them; never spoke to them. I don't know them; I have no relationship with them,” Robert Ray Barnes, the founder of the Black Lives Matter Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a lengthy interview. “Our whole thing is having unity with the police department.”
Checked the BLM website, and the ActBlue link -- it says the money goes to the "Black Lives Matter Support Fund" at Tides. So the BLM Foundation" is an entirely different pro-cops group, and the money going to the real BLM is sent to a "Fund". Which sounds like Tides (and probably Thousands Currents before) are more directly handling the money (one of the two options for sponsorship legally turns the sponsored group into a branch of the sponsor), though that's a weak supposition. To further confuse things, the BLM Global Network Foundation is the full name of the popular BLM organization.

https://www.tides.org/
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/
https://thousandcurrents.org/
https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099
https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372
https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:05:45 am
I disagree.  I'm pretty sure the people running BLM are embezzling pretty much all of it.
That's a more reasonable claim, though you can have obscene salaries, fat expense accounts, and fund all your pet projects without violating any laws. The real question is what kind of financial stewardship Thousand Currents, or Tides as of a month or two ago, are providing. Those are the two charities that have lent BLM their 501(c)3 status, which means the money from ActBlue went to them, to manage for the BLM Foundation. That's enough layers of indirection to hide some sins, but both Tides and Thousands Currents have been around for 30 or more years, so at the very least they know how to handle the accounting and maintain a semblance of propriety.

I'm not familiar with either, so I looked them both up in Charity Navigator. Thousand Currents seems quite reputable. They're global, and get a high rating for financial accountability and transparency. Tides on the other hand gets a failing score. Which could suggest something about why BLM switched, though Thousand Currents claims that the reason BLM left is because TC decided to sunset their financial sponsorship program. Note while they're both a respectable size for a charity, they're fairly small, compared to the money BLM is bringing in -- TC has an annual revenue of about $6 million, and Tides is somewhat smaller at about $4 million.

Though how much BLM has raised is an open question. One hint is that in June, their Foundation announced a $6.5 million plan to support "grassroots" organizing (for definitions of "grassroots" that allow for funding from above, I assume). They also have plans in media and education, and have been sponsoring artists since 2015.

Okay, this is weird. Looked up BLM in Charity Navigator, and found the BLM Foundation, which has a "moderate" advisory that mentions a cease & desist order from the attorneys general of NY and California, and a Buzzfeed article that says the BLM Foundation has zero ties to the BLM organization that gets all the press:
Quote
The Black Lives Matter Foundation, a Santa Clarita, California–based charitable organization that has one paid employee and lists a UPS store as its address, has a very different goal, according to its founder: “bringing the community and police closer together.”
...
“I don't have anything to do with the Black Lives Matter Global Network. I never met them; never spoke to them. I don't know them; I have no relationship with them,” Robert Ray Barnes, the founder of the Black Lives Matter Foundation, told BuzzFeed News in a lengthy interview. “Our whole thing is having unity with the police department.”
Checked the BLM website, and the ActBlue link -- it says the money goes to the "Black Lives Matter Support Fund" at Tides. So the BLM Foundation" is an entirely different pro-cops group, and the money going to the real BLM is sent to a "Fund". Which sounds like Tides (and probably Thousands Currents before) are more directly handling the money (one of the two options for sponsorship legally turns the sponsored group into a branch of the sponsor), though that's a weak supposition. To further confuse things, the BLM Global Network Foundation is the full name of the popular BLM organization.

https://www.tides.org/ (https://www.tides.org/)
https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/ (https://www.tides.org/our-community/partnerships/tides-welcomes-black-lives-matter/)
https://thousandcurrents.org/ (https://thousandcurrents.org/)
https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/ (https://thousandcurrents.org/black-lives-matter/)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/571138099)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=6372)
https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/ (https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-global-network-foundation-announces-6-5-million-fund-to-support-organizing-work/)
https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254 (https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/474143254)
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945175-CaliforniaAGCeaseandDesist-BLMFoundation.html)
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-attorney-general-orders-black-lives-matter-foundation-to-stop-soliciting-donations/2502852/)
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/black-lives-matter-foundation-unrelated-blm-donations)


Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 08:08:19 am
Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
That was the distinction I was making -- the BLM Foundation is pro-cop, in contrast to its more famous namesake.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:24:59 am
Not by any stretch of the imagination would I call BLM or any other group that demands to defund police to be "pro-cop".
That was the distinction I was making -- the BLM Foundation is pro-cop, in contrast to its more famous namesake.


All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 12:22:17 pm
All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
No, this is on you. What do you do, scan my posts for things you can maliciously misinterpret, and ignore all the rest of the context? Who would say that BLM (the famous one) is pro-cops? That makes no fucking sense. I was making a distinction between the BLM Global Network Foundation (the group all the rioters love), and the BLM Foundation (which apparently tries to work cooperatively with cops -- read the links). If you have trouble parsing basic sentences, then throw commas before and after "pro-cops group". That should make the meaning clear, even to you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 02:11:04 pm
All right. Fuck this. You can have all the personal definitions of things you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. It is just doublespeak.
No, this is on you. What do you do, scan my posts for things you can maliciously misinterpret, and ignore all the rest of the context? Who would say that BLM (the famous one) is pro-cops? That makes no fucking sense. I was making a distinction between the BLM Global Network Foundation (the group all the rioters love), and the BLM Foundation (which apparently tries to work cooperatively with cops -- read the links). If you have trouble parsing basic sentences, then throw commas before and after "pro-cops group". That should make the meaning clear, even to you.


No, fuck-o. This is on you to explain yourself in a clear and concise manner if you want your message to be communicated effectively. Right now you are just throwing out a bunch of bullshit to obfuscate the fact that a cornerstone of BLM is to defund police departments which is anything but "pro-cop".
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 21, 2020, 04:06:44 pm

Greetings!


Yeah, when myself or anyone else refers to "BLM"--everyone knows what organization is being discussed. The fact that somewhere there exists an organization called "BLM The Sweet Garden Charity" is irrelevant.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:20:48 pm
No, fuck-o. This is on you to explain yourself in a clear and concise manner if you want your message to be communicated effectively. Right now you are just throwing out a bunch of bullshit to obfuscate the fact that a cornerstone of BLM is to defund police departments which is anything but "pro-cop".
I literally said the opposite. If you twist and squint, you can make it say what you're claiming it says, but that defies the nature of the (real) BLM as understood both by their enemies and allies, my position on BLM (they're a Marxist hate group), and the sentence structure itself, which places the BLM and the faux-BLM groups in opposition. Requiring someone to write sentences with such clarity that they can't be misinterpreted by someone willing to ignore every last bit of context is completely unreasonable even in formal writing, much less in posts on an anti-swine messageboard. It's also literally impossible in many cases, at least without ballooning writing with a crazy number of caveats, given that the English language is a human language, not a form of mathematics or a programming language, and thus lacks their precision. That's why context, and not interpreting things as maliciously as possible, is essential to communication.

You cherry-picked something that could be interpreted two ways, and ignored the clear context that pointed to the other interpretation. Rather than criticizing or attacking you, I simply explained in neutral terms what I actually intended. Which should have ended it, because the author presumably knows what they meant. But no, you've been flipping out ever since.

So it's all on you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 21, 2020, 05:22:55 pm
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:32:31 pm
Yeah, when myself or anyone else refers to "BLM"--everyone knows what organization is being discussed. The fact that somewhere there exists an organization called "BLM The Sweet Garden Charity" is irrelevant.
Evidence suggests otherwise. The cease and desist orders are because they were confusing people. The Buzzfeed article talks about a GoFundMe, and MSN expands on that by saying $4.35 million has been donated in error to the smaller group:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/millions-mistakenly-raised-for-black-lives-matter-group-not-associated-with-movement/ar-BB15wQMj

And this isn't just random people doing a search for BLM and accidentally donating to a guy in his garage. If you look around, there are quite a few published articles that are confusing BLM (burn loot murder) with the pro-cop (or at least cop-appeasing) BLM. Here's one that can't separate the two:
https://www.teaparty.org/top-black-lives-matter-activist-questions-where-the-millions-of-dollars-in-donations-are-going-no-one-knows-442947/
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 05:32:48 pm
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
That's not a nice thing to say about Jeff.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on September 21, 2020, 07:31:23 pm
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.

It is, but not the way you think. I’ve been following this side discussion on and off, and the only one I’ve seen make actual arguments, provide evidence or bring up verifiable facts has been Pat. Everyone else has just been engaging on wild speculation or character attacks because Pat is contradicting them with facts and specific details that you could look up, and if Pat is truly wrong about these details you could point them out and call them out on his (or her? It Pat!) BS.

Yet interestingly enough people ARE calling Pat’s BS... without pointing out ANY of the supposed BS. It is quite literally “OMG! You’re correcting and contradicting our wild, baseless and completely unsupported speculation! You’re full of shit!”

And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 08:56:22 pm
The level of mental gymnastics on display because someone just won't admit they're full of shit is astounding.
That's not a nice thing to say about Jeff.


I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 21, 2020, 09:28:58 pm

Greetings!


BLM is a hateful, racist organization of Marxists seeking to overthrow and destroy the United States of America, and Western Civilization in general. I have seen plenty of their own videos, their own interviews, and their own quotes to know all about what they stand for and what their mission and goals are. Then, of course, there is also the litany of live-action videos of the BLM followers in action, attacking, burning, looting, and screaming in hate towards anyone that opposes them.


Fuck BLM. And Antifa. The anarchists, the terrorists, the Marxists, the fucking brain-dead zombies that worship them and gulp their hateful shit down like it is gospel from on high. The sooner they are all hunted down and crushed, the better we shall all be.


Ben Shapiro, Andrew Klavan, Michael Knowles, Matt Walsh, all of The Daily Wire, are certainly not confused about who BLM is. Neither is Glenn Beck, Dennis Prager, Dan Bongino, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram, Rush Limbaugh, Candace Owens, Brandon Tatum, Larry Elder, Terrence Popp, Tim Pool, Salty Cracker, or Pastor John MacArthur, of Grace Community Church. Let alone AG William Barr, the head of Homeland Security, or President Donald Trump.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:31:20 pm
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
So I'm a liberal? And I support BLM?

That's fucking insane. But it's nice to hear one of you actually finally come out and say it. I suspected it, but I was never quite sure, because your posts have been so void of content.

That's why this has been so fucking surreal. I'm being attacked by people who won't debate any points I make, and everything they say appears to come from bizarroworld because their responses seem to be based on assumptions about me that are completely assbackwards.

It proves my tribalism hypothesis, tho. You labeled me an enemy based on -- well, hell if I know what. Something trivial and irrelevant, certainly. And then you assigned me politics based on whatever dogwhistle you imagine you heard. You got them pretty much 100% wrong, BTW.

And to address your attempt at a point, I've never heard a single person say that BLM is pro-cop, even liberals. Liberals, or at least their progressive wing, are the ones screaming defund the police, and even the more moderate types are in full-on pander mode and don't dare contradict the narrative. So that entire argument is nonsense.

Also, I used Buzzfeed because they were cited by Charity Navigator. I know nothing about them beyond that, and don't care. And I've cited probably 20 or 30 sources, and MSN is one of the most trivial, supporting a minor aside, and something that's unlikely to be misreported because it's really just a statement by BLM of how they're spending money (which is hard to find, because they're as transparent as a brick). It's basically a press release, not an analysis or investigative reporting. So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 09:47:34 pm
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).


So yeah, when you use buzzfeed and MSN as sources, I don't consider them to be good examples of accurate reporting.
So I'm a liberal? And I support BLM?

That's fucking insane. But it's nice to hear one of you actually finally come out and say it. I suspected it, but I was never quite sure, because your posts have been so void of content.

That's why this has been so fucking surreal. I'm being attacked by people who won't debate any points I make, and everything they say appears to come from bizarroworld because their responses seem to be based on assumptions about me that are completely assbackwards.

It proves my tribalism hypothesis, tho. You labeled me an enemy based on -- well, hell if I know what. Something trivial and irrelevant, certainly. And then you assigned me politics based on whatever dogwhistle you imagine you heard. You got them pretty much 100% wrong, BTW.

And to address your attempt at a point, I've never heard a single person say that BLM is pro-cop, even liberals. Liberals, or at least their progressive wing, are the ones screaming defund the police, and even the more moderate types are in full-on pander mode and don't dare contradict the narrative. So that entire argument is nonsense.

Also, I used Buzzfeed because they were cited by Charity Navigator. I know nothing about them beyond that, and don't care. And I've cited probably 20 or 30 sources, and MSN is one of the most trivial, supporting a minor aside, and something that's unlikely to be misreported because it's really just a statement by BLM of how they're spending money (which is hard to find, because they're as transparent as a brick). It's basically a press release, not an analysis or investigative reporting. So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.




The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:48:16 pm
And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
I'm not sure they're correct, I'm just reporting what I can find. But there's a lot of bad information out there, key among them idea that ActBlue is funneling money from BLM to Joe Biden. The so-called "smoking gun" of the DONATE button is based on a bad misunderstanding; it's just not a feasible mechanism.

That isn't a defense of BLM. I've pointed, endlessly, how they're a black hole for money. Nor does it absolve ActBlue; but as far as I can tell, their biggest sin is being too effective. They're figured out the secret sauce for getting lots of small donations from progressives, primarily to support Democratic political candidates, but also other kinds of progressive causes. This is especially important because of campaign finance limits, and it's something the Republicans lack, despite their attempt at mimicry with WinRed.

I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 21, 2020, 09:48:53 pm
The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
The why did you quote my post? And why are you doing this? It makes zero sense to me.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 21, 2020, 10:11:40 pm
The only thing that's calling you a liberal is the voices in your head.
The why did you quote my post? And why are you doing this? It makes zero sense to me.


Because I'm on a phone at work and that is the quickest way to respond?


Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on September 22, 2020, 05:40:28 am
So you're clearly still combing through my posts looking for things you can cherry pick out of context and object to, because damn, I'm the Enemy. I have to believe all the insane shit you assigned me, don't I?

Fuck you and your tribalism. I'm the enemy of people like you, whatever their political beliefs.
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on September 22, 2020, 08:33:54 am
Enough with the bullshit about when a poster(s) disagree with you then you are "enemy" garbage.


Is this what it's come to when having a conversation one either agrees 1000% with the person or everyone else is the "enemy". If some here wanted an echo chamber why go to forums where one knows that the majority of the posters will either disagree and give push-back.


I know this place and it's posters are not the easiest to get along with sometimes yet your not the victim here. No one is forcing anyone or everyone to come here and post. No gun is being held at your head with the threat of death if one does not post here.


Either here or elsewhere one has to accept that sometimes posters won't agree with you on a topic and move on. Save the martyrdom and victim crap for those who are actually going through real suffering.


It's like seeing a 5 year old who does not get their way and rush off to their parents and saying "I'M TELLING". Grow a thick skin or go elsewhere.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 22, 2020, 11:02:26 am
Honestly, at this point I don't really care. Trump is going to get another SCOTUS pick; the word is out that Romney will vote yes (I cannot help but wonder if someone passed him a note with Harry Reid's infamous response, when Reid was confronted about lying regarding Romney's tax returns: 'we won, didn't we?').


I also think it's very unlikely Sundown Joe will upset Trump. The Democrats have foolishly leashed their horses to the riots, and that will not make them popular no matter how many times they scream 'ORANGE MAN BAD'.


The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on September 22, 2020, 12:46:32 pm
And this is not even to say that Pat is necessarily correct (though, I am inclined to believe that they’re at least closer to reality), but that NOBODY (and anyone here is free to bring me a quote proving otherwise) is even attempting to actually refute anything that Pat said with actual data. It’s basically just people whining that Pat is raining on their parade by pointing out contradicting data with actual links to back up what he/she says. And you don’t even realize it! The whole thing is just wild. ;D
I'm not sure they're correct, I'm just reporting what I can find. But there's a lot of bad information out there, key among them idea that ActBlue is funneling money from BLM to Joe Biden. The so-called "smoking gun" of the DONATE button is based on a bad misunderstanding; it's just not a feasible mechanism.

That isn't a defense of BLM. I've pointed, endlessly, how they're a black hole for money. Nor does it absolve ActBlue; but as far as I can tell, their biggest sin is being too effective. They're figured out the secret sauce for getting lots of small donations from progressives, primarily to support Democratic political candidates, but also other kinds of progressive causes. This is especially important because of campaign finance limits, and it's something the Republicans lack, despite their attempt at mimicry with WinRed.

Yeah, I don’t think either of those organizations is good, but that doesn’t mean that therefore ActBlue is a giant funnel machine working under the mandate of the Democratic party. IIRC ActBlue started out as a way to help prop up progressive candidates and help them win out against Neo-Liberals, which make the core of the Democratic party—at least that was my impression of them years ago when I was on the progressive side. They aren’t there so much to help the Democratic party, but to help progressives get in, because there’s always been a schism between progressives and the Neo-Liberal establishment. Plus they pretty much report every cent they get—even small potato donations—to the Federal Election Commission. The idea that they’re working hand in hand with the Democratic party to funnel money and stuff just seems wrongheaded to me.

I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.

Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.

I tried to stay out of it at first, but it just made me feel like a hypocrite.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 22, 2020, 03:13:44 pm
Yeah, I don’t think either of those organizations is good, but that doesn’t mean that therefore ActBlue is a giant funnel machine working under the mandate of the Democratic party. IIRC ActBlue started out as a way to help prop up progressive candidates and help them win out against Neo-Liberals, which make the core of the Democratic party—at least that was my impression of them years ago when I was on the progressive side. They aren’t there so much to help the Democratic party, but to help progressives get in, because there’s always been a schism between progressives and the Neo-Liberal establishment. Plus they pretty much report every cent they get—even small potato donations—to the Federal Election Commission. The idea that they’re working hand in hand with the Democratic party to funnel money and stuff just seems wrongheaded to me.
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.

It seems to me that BLM supporters are strongly pro-Democrat. Even if Biden doesn't endorse BLM because they're too radical, BLM supporters are most certainly going to prefer Biden to Trump. I would think most BLM donors would not have any moral objections to their funds being used to help elect Democrats - especially progressive candidates but even mainstream ones over Republicans. As long as it's reported correctly and fits with the donor's wishes, it doesn't seem like a scandal to me.

I'd want to see evidence if there is a legal violation of regulations, but it seems like no one has been showing those.


I'm surprised by your post, BTW. I had a negative impression of you after our last major interaction.
Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.

I tried to stay out of it at first, but it just made me feel like a hypocrite.
I try to avoid any speculation about other poster's motivation. To my mind, the focus should be on evidence and position. I think Pat at least provided a lot of evidence (that I haven't gotten through yet), but most responses have been about a few offhand comments of his.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 22, 2020, 04:27:55 pm
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.



Being associated with a movement that has caused the destruction of black owned businesses,  the deaths of black people, and massive riots and looting might be a sticking point.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on September 22, 2020, 04:44:05 pm
I find it interesting that liberals supporting BLM say that they don't really mean to defund the police and that they are pro-cop, but when the leadership of BLM is interviewed they want to completely abolish the police (with defunding being a euphemism for that).
Naw you definitely did misunderstand Pat.   I'm thinking of starting a Black Lives Matter organization so I can get in on the cash grab.
The purpose of my BLM organization would be a fund to elect prosecutors who would commit to enforcing laws against burning, looting and rioting.
And of course I'm going to collect a very generous salary. :-)

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 23, 2020, 12:31:59 pm
While there are legal technicalities depending on how different funds are organized, I don't see how it is a moral scandal or scam if funds from BLM-related organizations help Democrats.
Being associated with a movement that has caused the destruction of black owned businesses,  the deaths of black people, and massive riots and looting might be a sticking point.
The point was about funding, not about the movement itself.

There is a broad spectrum of supporters for BLM, from evangelical churches to companies like IBM as well as many grassroots supporters. The supporters do not believe that BLM causes violence. Rather, they feel that the violence is a result of the racial tension caused by deaths in police custody - just like most anti-abortion advocates do not endorse or support the violence and terrorism associated with it.

Even if you disagree with the supporters, that doesn't make it a scandal that they donate money - any more than it would be a scandal if they vote. People with opposing views exist, and will vote, advocate, and donate money in accordance with their views.

The problem I have with hashtag movements like BLM is that overwhelmingly, it's just a litmus test of identity - not any specific policies. At this point, BLM is more organized than many other such movements. There is a platform created by organizers, but most supporters have never read that platform - and probably wouldn't agree with much of it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:08:07 pm
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:09:05 pm
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:52:51 pm

Yeah, I had been watching this back and forth for a few days now and it just didn’t seem right to me. The lack of self awareness just made my truth-sense go haywire. Too many people making personal attacks over someone bringing up counterpoints—without bothering to refute anything—then taking issue with being called “tribalistic”. Like there’s another likely explanation why someone would take issue with somebody else digging holes into their political posturing. Even made start thinking maybe HappyDaze had a point about this place turning into an echo chamber.
It's not a complete echo chamber, there are a few members of the valiant opposition, and a few people who don't neatly fit into boxes. But there has been a problem with dogpiling for a long while. I don't think it's deliberate, it's just a natural consequence when there's only one person speaking from one position, and a half a dozen speaking against it. That imbalance means the number of replies can get overwhelming, and on top of that there seems to be a wolfpack effect where the posters who gang up get more vicious because of the perceived moral support. That's why I generally don't respond to those solitary posters, or drop out of the discussion when a wolfpack starts to form. There's also been a growing tendency, in just the last month or two, toward rah-rah cheerleader posts, rather than substantive content. That probably just feeds the wolfpack tendencies. Since these all make it more likely that the people who aren't part of the dominant bloc will burn out and quit, it does have the tendency to make the place more of an echo chamber.

I'm not sure if there's a good solution. I seem to value free speech more than most on the board, so I'm not a fan of most of the obvious attempts to address it. I just occasionally engage in metadiscussions like this, in order to raise awareness, though I doubt it has much effect.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 04:59:16 pm
Is this what it's come to when having a conversation one either agrees 1000% with the person or everyone else is the "enemy". If some here wanted an echo chamber why go to forums where one knows that the majority of the posters will either disagree and give push-back.
If you're talking to me, you should quote me or refer to me by name. This passive aggressive dancing around doesn't help.

And if you are talking to me, I'm fine with opposition. You'll notice I haven't faded away. The problem is the complete lack of arguments. I'm just being randomly insulted, for no reason I can grok. That's boring. I want to have discussions with people who don't think like I do, and try to understand where they're coming from. Not these shadowgames of we hate you but we we won't tell you why. That's why I've been constantly bringing the discussion back on topic, and bringing up more details, information, and sources. I want people to dispute what I'm saying, because that's one of the best ways to refine and develop my own beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 05:13:49 pm
There is a broad spectrum of supporters for BLM, from evangelical churches to companies like IBM as well as many grassroots supporters. The supporters do not believe that BLM causes violence. Rather, they feel that the violence is a result of the racial tension caused by deaths in police custody - just like most anti-abortion advocates do not endorse or support the violence and terrorism associated with it.
That's the public narrative, and there is definitely is a vocal minority and possibility a plurality who truly believe in the cause. But I'm not sure most of the ostensible supporters are true believers. A lot of businesses in areas that might suffer from riots put up signs in support of BLM, because they hope it will reduce the chances their shop will be looted or burned. And several larger companies have been targets of public shame campaigns for not being proactively anti-racist enough, which is sufficient to explain why a lot of other companies are making public statements of support. I don't doubt there are some true believers, but a lot of this is the virtue signaling/PR/marketing equivalent of Mafia protection rackets.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 23, 2020, 05:14:51 pm
Act Blue is a payment portal that is associated with liberal causes.  There are many payment portals that people are familiar with, like Kickstarter and GoFundMe.  If there is a BLM kickstarter, (and there are several (https://www.kickstarter.com/discover/advanced?ref=nav_search&term=blm)) it does not mean that money you pledge to The Scarlet Citadel (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/deepmagic/the-scarlet-citadel-a-5th-edition-dungeon-of-secrets?ref=discovery&term=dungeon) goes to support BLM decals.  They're different projects that all use the same funding site.  ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/) works in a similar way - there are approximately 15,000 causes/candidates that you can donate to via ActBlue.  A donation to Doug Jones isn't the same as a donation to Joe Biden and isn't the same as a donation to BLM.  But you can donate to ALL OF THEM if you want to.  Unlike Kickstarter, ActBlue is political - they're devoted to 'liberal' causes and candidates.  You cannot donate to Mitch McConnell or Donald Trump on ActBlue, but that doesn't mean that a donation to one candidate or cause automatically means you support EVERY candidate and cause, just like supporting one KickStarter doesn't mean you support EVERY Kickstarter. 


Hopefully that Analogy makes it sufficiently clear for the slow kids in the class.  You don't donate TO ActBlue, you donate THROUGH ActBlue and you have to designate the recipient BEFORE you donate. 


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 06:29:15 pm
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.


Hmmmm.....Well, being against community action groups started by Marxists who support violent protesting in order to build a new nation in the ashes of the old and being aided by politicians who should know better - yeah, I am against that. I guess that not spreading around burning, looting, and murder for Marxism is my agenda.


You've done it, Pat. You've found me out. Good job.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on September 23, 2020, 06:43:30 pm
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
You're not going to get me to feel bad about calling out the assholes that support escalating violence against others for their beliefs.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 06:44:50 pm
Why am I doing this? Because all of your posting on this subject has done more to confuse things than provide clarity. Hey, there was a group calling themselves BLM that had goals different from the BLM that we commonly know of and have been talking about. They got hit with a cease & desist by BLM. So what? Does that change what the goals are of  big BLM? Does it make big BLM more transparent? No?


Does that make sense to you now?
No. That makes it seems like you're driven by an agenda, and the only measure of things is whether they support or oppose that agenda, facts be damned.


Hmmmm.....Well, being against community action groups started by Marxists who support violent protesting in order to build a new nation in the ashes of the old and being aided by politicians who should know better - yeah, I am against that. I guess that not spreading around burning, looting, and murder for Marxism is my agenda.


You've done it, Pat. You've found me out. Good job.
I oppose them for quite a few more reasons than that, but I prefer to base it on facts, not falsehoods.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 23, 2020, 06:55:11 pm
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 23, 2020, 07:09:00 pm
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Sigh.

The whole discussion for the past umpteenth pages has been about ActBlue, and their relationship with BLM. Jeff and others were saying ActBlue was funneling money donated to BLM to Biden, based on the DONATE button on BLM's homepage. That's false, it's not how ActBlue operates, it's a fundraising platform and payment processor. They passthrough the money donated to the specific charities or other organizations, it's not a general fund they shift around.

This last post is just Jeff trying to reframe the discussion to make it about him fighting a valiant fight against BLM, and implying that anyone who disagrees with him is supporting them. Which is absolute nonsense, all he's been doing is making disparaging remarks, while I've been trying to figure out the truth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 08:06:21 pm
Which part of that post is a falsehood? Burning, looting, murder, or Marxism?
Sigh.

The whole discussion for the past umpteenth pages has been about ActBlue, and their relationship with BLM. Jeff and others were saying ActBlue was funneling money donated to BLM to Biden, based on the DONATE button on BLM's homepage. That's false, it's not how ActBlue operates, it's a fundraising platform and payment processor. They passthrough the money donated to the specific charities or other organizations, it's not a general fund they shift around.

This last post is just Jeff trying to reframe the discussion to make it about him fighting a valiant fight against BLM, and implying that anyone who disagrees with him is supporting them. Which is absolute nonsense, all he's been doing is making disparaging remarks, while I've been trying to figure out the truth.


Yup, because I am a White Knight and not just some opinionated asshole on a message board. Please, will someone help me lift this cross off of Pat? I think that it is more than he can bear.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 23, 2020, 08:20:34 pm
I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making (to reiterate, payments to BLM are not directly paid to the Biden campaign, even if both process through ActBlue) would concede that Pat is correct and if it APPEARED they were disagreeing on that point, they were at the very least being misunderstood or, and this might be a bridge too far, but admit they were wrong.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on September 23, 2020, 08:30:40 pm
I'm thinking of starting a Black Lives Matter organization so I can get in on the cash grab.
My idea was to have an All Blacks Lives Matter dedicated to help overthrow the evil Wallabies and Springboks who always try and oppress them and take their trophies away.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 23, 2020, 08:46:42 pm
That's not too far from how I feel about the usual assholes here. Welcome to the other side of theRPGsite's fourth wall.
To be fair, you mostly post the same way these days.
You're not going to get me to feel bad about calling out the assholes that support escalating violence against others for their beliefs.


Let me know when you get around to that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 23, 2020, 09:01:24 pm
I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making (to reiterate, payments to BLM are not directly paid to the Biden campaign, even if both process through ActBlue) would concede that Pat is correct and if it APPEARED they were disagreeing on that point, they were at the very least being misunderstood or, and this might be a bridge too far, but admit they were wrong.


No.


The information that Pat has provided about BLM and ActBlue just makes me feel more concerned about Burn Loot Murder because it demonstrates that a political action group only 7 years old already know how to game the system so that rubes who dig into it just help to obfuscate the money trail.


Obviously, they are being advised by experts.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 23, 2020, 11:58:58 pm
My idea was to have an All Blacks Lives Matter dedicated to help overthrow the evil Wallabies and Springboks who always try and oppress them and take their trophies away.
Finally, a charity worth supporting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on September 24, 2020, 12:18:22 am
Pat, I don't think you're right about ActBlue simply because the media has been happy to report how much donation is going to Burn Loot Murder and its easy to see how much traffic is being aimed at their website, but the MSM never mentions the ActBlue connection, and then suddenly and magically BLAMMO, the Biden campaign reports MEGA-MILLIONS for a candidate who was far behind in fundraising for a year.

To me, something smells like shit and there is ZERO reason to trust any organization devoted to the destruction of America. The DNC is pushing their "remake America" agenda very loud and abundantly clear. "Burn the whole system down" is being touted by their voters and MSM surrogates.

Though it's funny you brought up Charity Navigator...an organization which exists because of how many big name non-profits were total scumbags stuffing their pockets. If Trump wins, it will be interesting to hear what the IRS has to say about BLM in a year or two. Of course, if Biden wins, I'm well aware no questions will ever be allowed.

However, I don't have the time to do a deep research into the financial shenanigans I suspect so I will not concede your point, but I won't argue against it either.


I want people to dispute what I'm saying, because that's one of the best ways to refine and develop my own beliefs.
And this is why Pat isn't a leftist, or a liberal, or whatever the communists are calling themselves now.

Plus he called us deplorable monsters a "wolfpack", so what's not to like?

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9c/98/2e/9c982e67d786961a6ca42b67a93fa885.jpg)


I think it would be nice if everyone who posted in the last three pages conceded that the point Pat has been making
I think it would be nice if everyone who supports BLM gets deported.

When you find the genie's bottle, you can have your wish and I'll go next.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 02:43:46 am
The information that Pat has provided about BLM and ActBlue just makes me feel more concerned about Burn Loot Murder because it demonstrates that a political action group only 7 years old already know how to game the system so that rubes who dig into it just help to obfuscate the money trail.


Obviously, they are being advised by experts.
You're lying by implication. Again. Nothing I posted is supposed to make you feel less concerned. The exact opposite, in fact. I've been pointing out their complete lack of transparency, and how we know basically nothing about their structure, where the money is going, or even how much they've raised. BLM is basically a giant black hole when it comes to money and accountability.

And yes, they have expert advisors. I've been pointing that out, as well. They have been fully adopted by what is perhaps the greatest fund raising machine developed in the last 20 years, ActBlue. Thousand Currents and now Tides have more than 30 years experience each in complying with the requirements of a 501(c)3 charity, and their sponsorships allow BLM to act and receive money as a 501(c)3 charity, while still being able to operate as a private for-profit corporation, with its far more limited disclosure requirements. The admission by their founders that they have Marxist training is a hell of lot to unpack regarding both their motives and methods, but at the least it means they're full versed in the methods of hardcore activism, and what the founders believe probably diverges massively from the popular narrative of what the movement is about.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 03:11:14 am
Pat, I don't think you're right about ActBlue simply because the media has been happy to report how much donation is going to Burn Loot Murder and its easy to see how much traffic is being aimed at their website, but the MSM never mentions the ActBlue connection, and then suddenly and magically BLAMMO, the Biden campaign reports MEGA-MILLIONS for a candidate who was far behind in fundraising for a year.
I agree Biden's latest monthly fund raising total is really hard to explain. I can come up with rationales, like maybe the extreme leftists have finally given up on their quixotic desire for a more progressive candidate and rallied behind the only practical choice, or maybe it's a spillover from the MSM's unremitting push in favor of the riots, or maybe it's a bounce because Biden's finally showing his head after all those months where he was basically quarantined at home. But I don't find any of them satisfactory.

And I'm also very suspicious about the money going to BLM. With sycophantic front page attention for months from almost all major media outlets and their status as the cause celebre of the left, I'd expect they'd be raising tens or hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But the highest amount of spending I can find is the $6.5 million project reported in the MSN article. Most of that money should be coming through ActBlue, specifically ActBlue Charities. And since they're operating under the wing of 501(c)3 organizations, those totals should be publicly available. But I don't know enough about sponsorship to know where, when, or how that would be reported. Thousand Currents and Tides have annual revenues in the $4-6 million dollar range, which seems too low to include the donations to BLM. It could just be that there's been a big surge in donations, but they don't have to report it until the end of the year. But somebody should at least be bragging, or talking about what they plan to do with the windfall.

We're missing something. But ActBlue doesn't seem like a plausible mechanism.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 24, 2020, 03:47:54 am

You're lying by implication. Again.


OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on September 24, 2020, 04:13:37 am
OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
I explained it in the rest of the post. You keep trying to frame things as if you oppose BLM, and everyone who you disagree with supports them. Except nobody's defended BLM[1], especially not me.

[1] Except jhkim, but that's a recent post. He hasn't really been part of this discussion.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on September 24, 2020, 04:30:31 am
OK, why don't you go ahead and unpack that. Assume I'm slow on the uptake and wasn't pointing out that BLM was a shady organization back when DriveThruRPG first said that they were going to support them a few months ago.
I explained it in the rest of the post. You keep trying to frame things as if you oppose BLM, and everyone who you disagree with supports them. Except nobody's defended BLM[1], especially not me.

[1] Except jhkim, but that's a recent post. He hasn't really been part of this discussion.


OK, I guess I apologise for hurting your feelings, because I am definitely not claiming that anyone I disagree with is a BLM supporter - that shit is all in your head.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on September 24, 2020, 11:10:57 am
They're rioting again because an alleged drug dealer's ex-girlfriend got shot after her possible drug dealing boyfriend shot an officer in the femoral artery.


MSM's keeping a very tight lid on the details of how it all went down (including that they changed the no-knock to a knock in the field) so that tells you the fix is in.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 24, 2020, 04:03:18 pm
Several sites (including Cook Political (https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?)) have released demographic tools to see how partisanship/participation rates will impact the election. 


They also include an introduction to the tool in an article titled DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES SINCE 2016 ALONE COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEFEAT TRUMP (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/demographic-change-2016-alone-could-be-enough-defeat-trump)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on September 24, 2020, 06:50:30 pm
Several sites (including Cook Political (https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?)) have released demographic tools to see how partisanship/participation rates will impact the election. 


They also include an introduction to the tool in an article titled DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES SINCE 2016 ALONE COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEFEAT TRUMP (https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/demographic-change-2016-alone-could-be-enough-defeat-trump)
Yeah.  That bastion of the alt-right neo-nazi movement, Tim Pool, pointed that one out yesterday...


It's based on a 92%-8% Black split and a 72%-28% Latino split...
but a 2-3% point flip for Trump in both categories gives him the win.
The question is "Do you think Biden is really polling that high?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVXV1kxn4aI&t=0s  (approx 5:45)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 25, 2020, 04:28:26 pm
Since 1860, no Republican has won the white house without winning Ohio. 


A trio of polls released this week show Biden leading in Ohio anywhere from +1 to +5.  FiveThirtyEight had previously shown this as 'leaning Republican', but it is now a 'toss-up' with a projected vote share of Biden by 1.  Real Clear Politics which uses a simple average of polls now shows Ohio as Biden +3.3.


As a result, the 'snake chart' on 538's website now shows Ohio as slightly blue, with Georgia as one of the states that Trump maintains an advantage.  Five Thirty Eight is projecting a 2% win for Trump in Georgia, 50.6% to 48.5%. 


In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5% points, while Clinton won the popular vote by 2%, indicating that Georgia is ~7% more Republican than the National vote.  Biden is currently polling at +6.9% versus President Trump.  While Georgia remains a perennial hopeful breakthrough for Democrats, it may end up being a real nail-biter.  Even Texas, which went for Trump by 10% in 2016 is polling within the margin of error. 


Of course, the real news lately is that Trump doesn't believe that he COULD lose in free and fair elections, and consequently, if he DOES LOSE it automatically implies that the elections were not free and fair so he has not agreed to abide by their results.  In fact, it has been confirmed that he has been working with the Republican legislature in PA to replace duly elected electors with a slate of electors loyal to him (disregarding and disenfranchising voters in PA in the process). 


But for some reason, on this site, I only ever hear of how Democrats are anti-Democratic. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 25, 2020, 04:41:52 pm

But for some reason, on this site, I only ever hear of how Democrats are anti-Democratic.
The party that wants more mail in voting and no voting IDs might know a thing or two about election fraud. See Al Franken in Minnesota, JFK in Illinois for examples.
Republicans shouldn't fraud either. No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on September 25, 2020, 05:14:50 pm
No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.


Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?  If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)? 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on September 25, 2020, 06:11:08 pm
Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?


At least don't get your truth from a talk show shill.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 25, 2020, 11:15:52 pm
Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?
If there is massive mail in voting, the fraud can be worse. the Postal Workers Union endorsed Biden but we should expect them to deliver votes perfectly without bias?


If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 
I gave examples which you ignored.


As to "without ID" lol then why do we need IDs for so many other things that we do? Bank accounts, driving, buying a gun, buying alcohol, getting a mortgage, etc., etc.


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 
Absolutely not. If they can't be bothered to vote, how can they be even remotely similar to an educated voter?
 They might as well press randomly in the ballot box.


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


New York Times, so unbiased. The FBI is deep state. Entrenched bureaucracies are more loyal to preserving the bureaucracy than party affiliation or the truth. Hence the nonsense the country endured for 2 years with the Russia dossier.

Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?
Not even worth responding to. Richard J. Daley famously said he got Kennedy the 1960 election with "found" ballots. There is no reason not to use ID in the voting process. Of course, these days they give IDs out to illegal immigrants so even that wouldn't matter unless we ensured only citizens voted.


Who is against voter ID and pushing mail in voting while also having the strictest lockdowns for COVID? The Democrats, of course.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 26, 2020, 03:01:31 pm
This was in May, and yet the numbers were already in the 4 digit range for cases of proven Voter Fraud. https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 26, 2020, 03:05:03 pm
No one should fraud but I believe its widespread and getting worse.


Why do you think it is widespread and getting worse?  If someone is legally allowed to vote, they attest that they are voting, and their vote is recorded (without ID), how likely do you think fraud is, really? 


Do you agree/accept that one way to prevent that type of fraud would be to ensure that EVERYONE votes? 


I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).


Or maybe you get your truth from the gut (http://www.cc.com/video-clips/wfrwar/the-colbert-report-truth-from-the-gut)?


How about registered voter ID, which would reduce voter fraud markedly? And actually no, ensuring everyone votes won't prevent voter fraud, as the most common form of voter fraud is voting multiple times in different states or districts...


https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america (https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on September 28, 2020, 04:59:02 am
I think it's strange that you would suspect there is massive voter fraud when the people who examine this  (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/fbi-director-voter-fraud.html).
How about registered voter ID, which would reduce voter fraud markedly? And actually no, ensuring everyone votes won't prevent voter fraud, as the most common form of voter fraud is voting multiple times in different states or districts...

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america (https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/database-swells-1285-proven-cases-voter-fraud-america)
In a country of 328 million, 1285 cases is an extremely small fraction - and that is spread over 4 years and thus hundreds of elections (including state and national elections). That does not contradict the FBI finding. I support finding and prosecuting cases of fraud. But there's a huge difference between 1285 and the supposedly millions of illegal votes that many are claiming.

If the amount of actual fraud is anywhere close to this, then it's far more common for a valid voter to not have a valid ID - which could be more than a million people. (ref) (https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/) The effect of the law here is to put an additional bureaucratic hurdle and cost for such people to vote. Unequal bureaucratic hurdles decreases voter turnout.

I would say that it is more a problem with the existing American ID systems than anything. The government should really issue all citizens an ID, rather than making ID a privilege that you have to jump through bureaucratic hurdles and pay money to obtain. However, given our existing wacky ID system, then most of the voter ID laws cause more change by making it more difficult for a few valid citizens than reducing fraud. (Especially since not all forms of fraud are prevented by voter ID.)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 28, 2020, 08:39:03 am
In a country of 328 million, 1285 cases is an extremely small fraction - and that is spread over 4 years and thus hundreds of elections (including state and national elections). That does not contradict the FBI finding. I support finding and prosecuting cases of fraud. But there's a huge difference between 1285 and the supposedly millions of illegal votes that many are claiming.

If the amount of actual fraud is anywhere close to this, then it's far more common for a valid voter to not have a valid ID - which could be more than a million people. (ref) (https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/) The effect of the law here is to put an additional bureaucratic hurdle and cost for such people to vote. Unequal bureaucratic hurdles decreases voter turnout.
That's the one's we've caught, not the total number.

Quote
I would say that it is more a problem with the existing American ID systems than anything. The government should really issue all citizens an ID, rather than making ID a privilege that you have to jump through bureaucratic hurdles and pay money to obtain. However, given our existing wacky ID system, then most of the voter ID laws cause more change by making it more difficult for a few valid citizens than reducing fraud. (Especially since not all forms of fraud are prevented by voter ID.)
One, the federal government lacks a mandate for such. Most states have easy to get photo IDs anyways even if you're poor (and frankly, if you're not willing to haul your fat ass down to the building to GET the ID? I'm not certain you should be voting).


Two, Democrats lose their marbles when photo ID is brought up. It's like they're worried about something...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on September 28, 2020, 08:56:25 am
I don't consider the number of proving cases of fraud to be useful in this discussion.  It is extremely difficult in most jurisdictions where the fraud is occurring to get the DA to prosecute--even assuming you can get the relevant authorities to pursue enough of a case for the DA to have a shot.  If you do so, you are unlikely to get a conviction.  Yeah, the corrupt people that are doing the fraud are the people in power and you expect us to take lack of convictions as critical to the discussion?  That's taking disingenuous to a new level. 

Here's a fact:  Nowhere gets 100% voter participation.  Here's another fact:  There are almost 400 documented cases in the last few years where a registration board reported voting that exceeded 100% of the registered voters.  Ergo, massive fraud was committed in those areas.  The lack of convictions proves my point above.  There's a lot more that push right up to that 100% number but are mathematically literate enough to not quite go over.  That's not even counting systematically removed votes, such as the multiple times where boards have not counted military ballots in a close election.  (No, I'm not talking the usual case where absentees are not counted if the total number is not enough to change the count.  See 2000 Florida.)

Note that the "registered voter commits fraud" is a tiny percentage of the fraud.  Much of it is illegal aliens voting as non-citizens, but even more is likely the so called "stuffed" ballot boxes, though what constitutes "stuffed" is a little more technically tricky now than when the term was coined.  As with the 2016 Michigan recount, when they stopped the recount when they discovered that the vote tallies in certain areas vastly inflated the number of ballots in the box.  That is, it wasn't that a group of people conspired to make fraudulent votes but rather that the election monitoring officials simply lied about the count.  A classic case of Stalin's voting statement.

There is a deep history of voting fraud in this country, going back to at least 1840's Florida.   Miami-Dade was producing the numbers "needed" even back then.  Some federal investigators ended up in the swamp and never came out again over that one.  Yep, it goes back that far.  It hasn't been all one party, but it has been mostly one party.  Most of the Republican fraud is in the 1870-1890 range, notable for almost complete, sustained power over a lot of areas.  Power corrupts.  Democrats have absolute power in a lot of places for a long time, and it happens to correspond very tightly with those 100%+ voter "turnout" areas.
So let's cut to the chase and lay off the disingenuous crap.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on September 28, 2020, 09:40:37 am
Nothing to see here, folks!

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/ (https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on September 28, 2020, 11:02:18 am
Nothing to see here, folks!

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/ (https://www.projectveritas.com/news/ilhan-omar-connected-cash-for-ballots-voter-fraud-scheme-corrupts-elections/)
That bitch needs to be put on the next flight back to her hometown. Posthaste.


Go ahead, call me a racist. She's as dirty as any Chicago Dem. Did they ever untangle who she was actually married to and when?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on September 28, 2020, 11:21:26 pm
Did they ever untangle who she was actually married to and when?
No, as an Islamic female Democrat of color, she has immunity to the law.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on September 28, 2020, 11:52:02 pm

Greetings!


"You get in the van, and they give you cash." From the Project Veritas article that Brad posted. Thank you, Brad!


Fucking scum. Illhan Omar, I've always wondered who the fuck put her into power? They are all corrupt, greedy Marxists. I hope the Federal authorities arrest her, and send her to prison for many, many years. Harsh and unforgiving. She's a fucking traitor and a disgrace to the sincere foreign immigrants that come to this country seeking a better life. Her and all of the fucking "Squad" are a bunch of filthy, diseased rats. All of them are Marxists and Kool-Aid guzzling frauds.


Semper Fidelis,


SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on September 29, 2020, 01:15:31 pm
Isn't the penalty for treason (if her actions are construed as such) still death?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on September 30, 2020, 02:35:40 am
Isn't the penalty for treason (if her actions are construed as such) still death?


For TREASON? Yes and no: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381)
For SEDITION? No: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2384 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2384)


My best guess is they would have to prove her being in Congress is to Damage/Overthrow the U.S. Government, funding or working directly with those the U.S. is currently at war with (War On Terror != Declared 'legal' War), and/or directly being influenced by Foreign Legal Entities outside of U.S. Jurisdiction which are known Hostile Actors to The U.S. Government and/or it's People.


My best guess is: They ship her out to be punished by another country by claiming Citizenship Fraud (Best case scenario - worst case is: Nothing Happens).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Slipshot762 on September 30, 2020, 06:29:26 pm
In my 40 years of life everytime i go down to the church to vote you have to show ID even though the workers know you personally and find yourself in a mass of binders and sign the affidavit thing before you get to touch the voting machine. i dont trust mail in ballots and i wont use one, hell or high water, covid or no i will vote in person.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Joey2k on September 30, 2020, 07:05:05 pm
1285 cases doesn't mean 1285 fraudulent votes, right?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Delete_me on September 30, 2020, 09:13:14 pm
Correct. It means 1285 incidents investigated. That means the number of fraudulent votes was probably far less as the investigation most likely turned up a reason of, "I'm a dumbass and forgot I had already done this," from the voter more often than, "I tried to vote twice to steal the election."
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 01, 2020, 12:05:02 am
Chewbacca vs the Swedish Chef


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 01, 2020, 01:47:55 am
My favorite part of the debate was when Trump started singing "Throw the Leftist down the well so my people can be free!" and we all sang along at home.

My second favorite part was when Biden snarked about beating Bernie, disavowed universal healthcare, and then disavowed the Green New Deal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on October 05, 2020, 04:08:23 pm
On September 29th, the Real Clear Politics Betting Average had Trump at 45, and Biden at 54.5.  Following the debate the betting odds have shifted decisively toward Biden; they are currently at 37.5 Trump and 61.0 Biden.  This is roughly tied with Biden's biggest advantage in the polls from the first week of August. 

Trump lost the advantage in the betting markets on June 2nd; on September 1st they had converged to a near tie. 

Here's an article (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/09/02/betting-markets-swing-toward-trump-forecasting-tightening-race/#1b467b986bfe) from Forbes from last month when the odds were tightening.

Of course, the election is far from over.  The battleground states at the moment are fairly large states as far as Electoral Votes go.  Ohio is rated as a 50/50 toss-up, and Florida notoriously difficult to poll, it wouldn't be hard to imagine a situation where the winner will have to win in both Arizona and Pennsylvania. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 05, 2020, 06:19:23 pm
I am old enough to remember that Clinton was the betting favourite candidate during the 2016 election.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 05, 2020, 07:03:54 pm
I am old enough to remember that Clinton was the betting favourite candidate during the 2016 election.



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 05, 2020, 07:21:53 pm
Trump could easily lose the election. The DNC's voter fraud machine and MSM control is nothing to scoff at. We have a country full of diaper faces cool with their incoming economic destruction, so the MSM's power is truly ascendant.

In 2016, the leftists "knew 100%" there was no chance for Trump so it was just fun and games until her regal coronation. In 2020, they will stop at nothing to regain control.

However, in 2020, they also "know 100%" that American patriots will kneel in obedience the moment Trump is gone. While that's absolutely true for Republican politicians, that might not be true for all Americans. 

You can already see the Republicans in Washington lining up to bow to Biden. Amy Coney Barrett needed to be seated ASAP, but its all finger twiddling because Trump gone makes the RNC think they'll "get their party back" and Trump's fans will have no choice but support them.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on October 07, 2020, 12:58:25 pm
In July, I read an article (https://www.newsbreak.com/news/1595088405507/republicans-internal-polls-predict-a-democratic-rout-this-fall-election-analyst) that talked about Internal Polling, and how campaigns tend to share internal polling to help drive the narrative.  We know that internal polls tend to be biased toward the person commissioning the poll, so it's not uncommon for internal polls from both parties to show a very different race - ie, in one the incumbent shows a significant lead, and in the other the incumbent shows a smaller and potentially surmountable lead.  These types of polls help drive fundraising to close the gap/put the  race away. 

Throughout the election cycle, there has been an expectation that polls would tighten as we approach election day.  A 5% polling lead in a state might decrease to a 3% lead by election day, and with a margin of error of 4% that could mean that the race is absolutely a toss-up. 

That's not what appears to be happening (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519901-republican-fears-grow-over-rising-democratic-tide).

Quote
A poll conducted for CNN, released on Tuesday, showed Biden leading Trump by a 57 percent to 41 percent margin. An NBC-Wall Street Journal survey released over the weekend showed Biden ahead by 14 points. Even Rasmussen, the Republican-leaning pollster that Trump so often touts, found Biden ahead by 8 in their most recent survey.

Virtually every battleground poll is breaking against Trump as well. Recent surveys put Biden well ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire. Trump leads by small margins in usually solidly Republican states like Texas, Missouri and South Carolina. Internal Republican polls show Trump only narrowly leading in states like Montana and Kansas.

“These last three weeks have just felt terrible,” said Jai Chabria, a Republican strategist in Ohio. “It feels like the Democrats have momentum going into this last month, certainly, but I don’t think anyone knows what that means.”
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 07, 2020, 01:12:42 pm
NPR covered that as well, but their narrative to explain it didn't seem to make much sense. They focused very heavily on the debate, and talked about how voters looked at the two candidates, and didn't want Trump the Bully™ on their TV screens for another 4 years. In other words, they were very strongly suggesting that Biden won the debates. But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump. Biden was steamrolled, and didn't even take it gracefully. He responded with blatant insults, so he can't even claim the high road. Overall, he came across as weak, and that's pretty much the #1 sin in presidential elections.

So why is this happening? Doesn't seem likely that the polls themselves are jacked, because both sides are showing similar trends. It could be that the number of people lying to polls has jumped even more. Or there could be a seismic change in what people are looking for in a candidate. Have the riots really faded from memory, that quickly? Is systematic racism really that important to so many people? I really don't know.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on October 07, 2020, 01:51:04 pm
But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump.

I'd like to see your source for that.  Undecided voters are a relatively small pool of voters in 2020. 

Five Thirty Eight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/) partnered with Ipsos to score the debate.  Trump's unfavorable rating rose 2% after the debate and his favorable rating dropped for a post-debate shift of -26%.  Biden gained in favorability and reduced his unfavorable rating from a +2% to a +7%.  In terms of debate performance, 2/3 of those polled gave Trump poor marks; 1/3 favorable.  60% gave Biden good marks to 40% poor. 

Anecdotally, among the people that I know that like Trump, none thought the debate was catching him in a good light.  Among Republican strategists, the common refrain is that Trump should have given Biden enough rope to hang himself - the interruptions actually served as a lifeline to rescue him from a difficult question.  And it turns out that the Left does not obey Trump's commands... 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 07, 2020, 02:22:54 pm
But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump.
I'd like to see your source for that.  Undecided voters are a relatively small pool of voters in 2020. 
I was mistaken, it wasn't undecided voters. It was Spanish-speaking Americans in general.
https://www.newsweek.com/66-percent-spanish-speaking-americans-telemundo-poll-think-trump-just-won-debate-1535176

And nobody's arguing that Trump came across great in the debate, just in comparison to the Democratic doormat.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 07, 2020, 04:03:48 pm
And nobody's arguing that Trump came across great in the debate, just in comparison to the Democratic doormat.
It seems like it was mostly a toss-up. On Fox News, what I mostly see it calling it a hot mess and a tie where neither looked great. They don't cite polls claiming a Trump victory. At most, they quote Trump's campaign staff calling it a Trump victory.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/first-presidential-debate-who-won-style-substance-doug-schoen
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/presidential-debate-winner-trump-liz-peek
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2020-elections-october-surprises-john-fund
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 07, 2020, 04:32:04 pm
Not exactly an impartial source, but Vox summarized some results.
https://www.vox.com/2020/9/30/21494864/who-won-debate-trump-biden-polls
Quote from: CBS survey of respondents in battleground states
Overall, 48 percent said Biden won the debate, while 41 percent said Trump won, and 10 percent said it was a tie. As CBS elections and survey director Anthony Salvanto pointed out on air, this was pretty close to the support for each candidate going in.
Which is almost the definition of a wash. Results are more tilted when it comes to impressions:
Quote from: Same
Kabir Khanna of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit also points out that 42 percent of debate watchers said they thought worse of Trump afterward, and 24 percent said they thought better of him. In contrast, 32 percent said they thought worse of Biden, while 38 percent thought better of him.
Quote
CNN and SSRS also conducted an instant poll of debate watchers, and they found a more lopsided margin in Biden’s favor. Sixty percent of their respondents thought Biden won, while 28 percent thought Trump won.
I looked at that poll, their audience skews Democratic so there's an inherent bias.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 07, 2020, 05:25:44 pm
Wow. Watching Pat and deadDMwalking spread FUD for Biden and the Democrat Party is like watching the theater audience clap for Tinkerbell to not die.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 07, 2020, 05:58:06 pm
Wow. Watching Pat and deadDMwalking spread FUD for Biden and the Democrat Party is like watching the theater audience clap for Tinkerbell to not die.
As usual, you're a fucking idiot who can't even read. I was questioning the narrative that Biden won the debate.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Machaeus on October 07, 2020, 07:38:55 pm
Not sure how fond anyone here is of Tim Pool - I personally think he's about even on his hit/miss record - but I found this video today and I had so much catharsis.

"Mail in Voting BACKFIRES, Democrats Jump Ship In Panic As Mail Votes Get REJECTED In Large Numbers" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QEjlqPZwoA)

Also lol FuckYouTube put in a "Here's some context that'll frame the narrative the way we want it c:" marker above the title.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on October 07, 2020, 11:31:29 pm
Not sure how fond anyone here is of Tim Pool - I personally think he's about even on his hit/miss record - but I found this video today and I had so much catharsis.

"Mail in Voting BACKFIRES, Democrats Jump Ship In Panic As Mail Votes Get REJECTED In Large Numbers" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QEjlqPZwoA)

Also lol FuckYouTube put in a "Here's some context that'll frame the narrative the way we want it c:" marker above the title.
I enjoy watching Tim. He's okay, but a bit on the delusional side if he thinks anyone doesn't get he's a classical conservative and not a former-'berniebro'. lol I first saw him on Joe Rogan some years back. Let's see now, my playlist is something like: Tim Pool, X22Report, and MrObvious. Of course, there's always Mr. Jones who seems to get his show on YTube through other people 'stealthing' it in. Pure comedy! xD Also, I watch any videos about the streamers. ANY. I consider it all to be FUD to some extent. Like any broadcast news stuff. Just be careful and take loads of grains of salt. Of course, the 302s are being released... good reads those - if you like black bars protecting the villains.
/conspira-rant
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 08, 2020, 01:34:23 am
Wow. Watching Pat and deadDMwalking spread FUD for Biden and the Democrat Party is like watching the theater audience clap for Tinkerbell to not die.
As usual, you're a fucking idiot who can't even read. I was questioning the narrative that Biden won the debate.

Clap louder for Tinkerbell,. Pat!!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 08, 2020, 08:26:56 am
To those of you who seem to think Gropey Joe is the answer to our prayers:

Sell me.

No, seriously. Put your salesman cap on and show me why this barely-cognizant zombie should get my vote. Particularly with the Democrat platform planks of 'repeal 2nd Amendment' and 'punish self defense'.

Trump hasn't been perfect -- hell, I snort at people who insist he's the BEST PRESIDENT EVAR -- but for a guy who keeps getting painted as 'the theoretical child of Sauron and Cruella deVille' (to quote OotS), he's not bad and he's hardly the monster people want him to be.

A shame. Part of me almost wishes he WAS that monster.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 08, 2020, 10:30:06 am
Clap louder for Tinkerbell,. Pat!!
You're a fucking idiot.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on October 09, 2020, 02:02:43 pm
Once you turn over the voter fraud rock, it seems the critters just up the ante...

https://bongino.com/texas-candidate-for-mayor-arrested-on-109-counts-of-voting-fraud/?fbclid=IwAR3OFNzZEozNW-2ifOHtFi-DUxPgVrXEZeLLYz4iFYpBKwX6TxXm3N2D4Eg
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 12, 2020, 08:08:15 am
Once you turn over the voter fraud rock, it seems the critters just up the ante...

https://bongino.com/texas-candidate-for-mayor-arrested-on-109-counts-of-voting-fraud/?fbclid=IwAR3OFNzZEozNW-2ifOHtFi-DUxPgVrXEZeLLYz4iFYpBKwX6TxXm3N2D4Eg
Don't worry, someone will be along shortly to state that Mr. Bongino has it all wrong and that he's not trustworthy. /sarc

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 12, 2020, 10:58:15 am
Once you turn over the voter fraud rock, it seems the critters just up the ante...

https://bongino.com/texas-candidate-for-mayor-arrested-on-109-counts-of-voting-fraud/?fbclid=IwAR3OFNzZEozNW-2ifOHtFi-DUxPgVrXEZeLLYz4iFYpBKwX6TxXm3N2D4Eg
Don't worry, someone will be along shortly to state that Mr. Bongino has it all wrong and that he's not trustworthy. /sarc

Obviously. They mayoral candidate has a foreign-sounding name, so he's clearly not guilty. And it's OK because they do it all the time in his native culture. And the Republicans are doing the same. And it's a Russian scam.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on October 12, 2020, 02:03:23 pm
Greetings!

The Dan Bongino program is awesome! I regularly listen to the Dan Bongino program. Bongino is an experienced federal agent--he was in the Secret Service and before that had an extensive career with the New York Police Department. Bongino's analysis on politics and current events is generally far more valuable, insightful, accurate, and trustworthy than the majority of academics, politicians, and worthless fucking journalists out there in our society. He's a great guy. Straight shooting, and genuine. Bongino is intelligent and provides a lot of common sense, sharp analysis, and embraces excellent values. I highly recommend tuning in to the Dan Bongino program. I typically watch his program on You Tube.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: shuddemell on October 13, 2020, 10:58:56 am
https://www.ac2news.com/2020/10/nearly-50000-voters-received-wrong-ballots-in-ohio/?fbclid=IwAR2I4LtvliRJNOgacRS6lkJXd7a7nyBG75FPTTzsqhXAsPw5z1vqOtu_fUk
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on October 13, 2020, 02:33:25 pm
https://www.ac2news.com/2020/10/nearly-50000-voters-received-wrong-ballots-in-ohio/?fbclid=IwAR2I4LtvliRJNOgacRS6lkJXd7a7nyBG75FPTTzsqhXAsPw5z1vqOtu_fUk

At this point, it almost seems like someone is purposely trying to cause enough Chaos to invalidate the election, no matter who wins.

1. Give people a week to vote, with one guaranteed paid day off to any worker during that time.
2. Voter ID system, with the gov’t paying for it.
3. In-person voting with paper ballots only, or solicited mail ballots through an application process, provided voter rolls are proven accurate.
4. Official party and neutral 3rd party auditors.
5. LEO security of ballots.

What we have now is a fucking return to Boss Tweed days.  “Vote Early!, Vote Often!”

It’s a national disgrace.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RPGPundit on October 13, 2020, 06:55:14 pm
I live in a 3rd world country, where voting is obligatory, and voter ID is required. It's seriously absurd to think that the United States couldn't have Voter ID work.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 13, 2020, 07:17:30 pm
Voter ID is waaaaaaaaaycist!!!



It's quite obvious that any black Americans in Harlem who believe they actually have ID or know how to get an ID are suffering from delusions caused by the constant oppression from white supremacy.

There is literally no other explanation for this video.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Luca on October 14, 2020, 01:05:04 pm
I've to admit it's a mistery to me how in the USA the simple concept of "you need to be able to prove your identity to a police officer" is seen as somehow an attack of personal freedom.
In Italy, you're supposed to carry either the ID card or the driving license or the passport (all 3 are valid for identification purposes) on you at all times. So, of course, that also stands when you get to vote.

In fact, in Italy to vote you need both a way to prove your identity AND a second piece of paper called an "electoral certificate". This is basically a piece of paper with some data and a bunch of spaces in it, and every time you vote one of the squares gets stamped with a governmental rubber stamp. Once all the spaces are filled, you need to get yourself a new certificate. The certificate is issued by your municipality on request and basically proves you've the right to vote (which could be revoked for e.g. some types of felonies).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on October 14, 2020, 01:33:57 pm
At this point the democrats are begging for a Starship Troopers (book) type voting thanks to all the chaos they are trying to sow.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 14, 2020, 07:13:38 pm
So...Twatter suspended the account of the New York Post for exposing Biden's lies regarding the Ukraine debacle and Hunter's ties. Of course, Farcebook is making the story disappear as well.

What happens next might be quite interesting.

Back in the day, the NY Post was known for its tough, working class attitude and its "tabloid with facts" approach. I have no idea if anyone at TNYP has a nutsack anymore, but California's soycial media clowns may have fucked with the wrong people this time.

If America wants a future, we need the tech giants imprisoned.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 14, 2020, 07:39:06 pm
I've to admit it's a mistery to me how in the USA the simple concept of "you need to be able to prove your identity to a police officer" is seen as somehow an attack of personal freedom.

Luca, nobody's gonna argue against Italians doing food and voter ID better than the USA.

It's two areas we could definitely improve.

In the USA, personal freedom is extremely important so carrying ID 24/7 would be considered onerous by many, even though most of us do. However, the anti-voter ID attitude is heavily coming from Democrat politicians, not even that loudly from actual Democrat voters. As that Harlem video I posted above showed, black Americans think its weird and ignorant that white liberals believe that owning ID, getting ID or using the internet are beyond the ken of black people.

In fact, black Americans have repeatedly made it clear their concern is LONG LINES when voting, not whether they need to show their driver's license. If you had two lines almost anywhere in the USA, one for no ID and one for ID and the ID line was half the wait, 99% of everyone would go into the ID line.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 14, 2020, 08:17:03 pm
It may sound like a joke or hyperbole, but this just happened, due to one statement by Judge Amy Coney Barrett (a phrase also previously used by Biden BTW)

(https://media.kotakuinaction2.win/post/dffIWqbD.jpeg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 14, 2020, 08:17:20 pm
RE: voter ID, I have to show my drivers license to vote, so this is mostly a bunch of blustery nonsense. Never seen anyone ever complain about having to show ID, either, and I've voted in almost every election in person since I was just out of high school. The only people who bitch about it are DC bureaucrats trying to get votes from people who literally don't give a fuck. Seriously, it's always white Karen's so concerned with poor blacks/hispanics feeling "disenfranchised", while I never actually see those people say anything unless they think it might get them some free booze.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 14, 2020, 10:39:22 pm
It may sound like a joke or hyperbole, but this just happened, due to one statement by Judge Amy Coney Barrett (a phrase also previously used by Biden BTW)

(https://media.kotakuinaction2.win/post/dffIWqbD.jpeg)

ACB apologized today. I understand why she did it, she's got to walk a very thin tightrope to get through the interviews, but goddamn that was retarted.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 14, 2020, 11:38:23 pm
I guess there are some people that think that sex is not real and at the same time sexual preference is.

I wish people would just stuck to the Science.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on October 15, 2020, 10:47:24 am
I guess there are some people that think that sex is not real and at the same time sexual preference is.

I wish people would just stuck to the Science.

But that requires work like reading and understanding -- it is so much easier to just be sciency for political reasons.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 15, 2020, 10:50:59 am
I guess there are some people that think that sex is not real and at the same time sexual preference is.

I wish people would just stuck to the Science.

But that requires work like reading and understanding -- it is so much easier to just be sciency for political reasons.

Worse. Science is actively shunned by some people on the left now, because of colonialism or.....something.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on October 15, 2020, 11:04:33 am
“Science” is a sexist cisheteronormative white supremacist tool used to suppress “other ways of knowing” to facilitate the oppression of mArGiNaLiZeD people.

Bigots.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 15, 2020, 05:40:19 pm
I live in a 3rd world country, where voting is obligatory, and voter ID is required. It's seriously absurd to think that the United States couldn't have Voter ID work.
I agree. It's perfectly possible for the U.S. to have a good voter ID system. As I understand it, voter ID works in Uruguay because they offer *free* birth certificate and voter ID to every citizen, and require all citizens to register and to vote. Largely because of this, they have a voter participation rate of 90%, compared to 55% in the U.S. They even have a system going that gets people valid ID from birth.

https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/democracy/des/voter-identification-requirements.pdf

I would favor a U.S. system that gets free ID into everyone's hands. Currently, ID is treated like a privilege - you have to pay to get it, and the onus is on the citizen to get their state ID. Thus, there is a small percentage of people who are valid citizens but have no valid ID. It's only a few percent, but in this day and age, just 1% can be an important shift in elections.

The recent state-based pushes for voter ID requirements are mostly requiring the current pay-to-get IDs. What I found enlightening was the many examples of people struggling to get valid ID in the Harvard Law School report on voter ID.

https://today.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FullReportVoterIDJune20141.pdf


I'm not particularly endorsing Uruguay's required voting approach. However, if you're going to use it as an example, I think that system would almost certainly favor the Democrats. Generally speaking, the Republicans do better among men, whites, and the rich. The Democrats do better among women, non-whites, and the poor. Among these, the main group who vote less are the poor. Increased voter turnout to 90% would almost certainly favor Democrats.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on October 15, 2020, 06:09:59 pm
Voter ID is waaaaaaaaaycist!!!



It's quite obvious that any black Americans in Harlem who believe they actually have ID or know how to get an ID are suffering from delusions caused by the constant oppression from white supremacy.

There is literally no other explanation for this video.

There’s tons of racism in this video...all on display from the White liberals, as usual.  They think Black people are some feral tribesmen living in a third world hellhole.

1. A Black person with a job, has an ID.
2. A Black person without a job, who has some form of Gov’t assistance, has an ID.

The only people without ID’s are homeless or people so old they are outside the system and never got SS.

Voter ID is not an attempt to suppress the Black Vote, there’s other methods for that.
Voter ID is an attempt to suppress the Illegal Immigrant Vote, which should not exist to begin with.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on October 15, 2020, 06:15:06 pm
It may sound like a joke or hyperbole, but this just happened, due to one statement by Judge Amy Coney Barrett (a phrase also previously used by Biden BTW)

(https://media.kotakuinaction2.win/post/dffIWqbD.jpeg)

To be honest, Sexual Orientation should be used, it’s a more accurate term.

Still, though, the idea that dictionaries change literally in hours based on social media outcry’s due to political agendas is truly frightening.

No other possible way to describe it but Orwellian.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on October 15, 2020, 06:41:42 pm
Greetings!

All the crying about "Voter Suppression!" and hand-wringing about poor people being unable to get an ID...

Whaa! Whaa! It's fucking pathetic. I have had an ID all of my life. School ID, of course, and then at 16 the Driver's License. Later, I got the Military ID and a State ID card.

I always carry *two* forms of valid ID with me, at all times, everywhere. I have the State ID and a Driver's License.

Driver's Licenses and State ID's are not expensive or too burdensome. It takes an hour of time, and $50 bucks to get both forms of ID or less. All of the whining is just laziness and looking for excuses and something else to blame white people for...something. More stupid nonsense "Oppression!" These people can REEE the fuck off.

Get a valid form of ID, walk their stupid asses down to a local church, senior citizen center, school, or some government office, as appropriate, and fucking VOTE. It isn't rocket science, a fucking 10 year old child can comprehend how to get this shit done.

The fact that we have adults hopping around in newspaper articles and TV interviews crying about voter suppression and people being unable to get a goddamned ID is malignant and fucking stupid. These morons are frauds and fucking demagogues.

Goddamn these people need to grow the fuck up!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Machaeus on October 15, 2020, 07:06:31 pm
^ This guy gets it.

I wish I had more to add, but sometimes, people just take the words right out of your mouth.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 15, 2020, 11:43:06 pm
Greetings!

All the crying about "Voter Suppression!" and hand-wringing about poor people being unable to get an ID...

Whaa! Whaa! It's fucking pathetic. I have had an ID all of my life. School ID, of course, and then at 16 the Driver's License. Later, I got the Military ID and a State ID card.

I always carry *two* forms of valid ID with me, at all times, everywhere. I have the State ID and a Driver's License.

Driver's Licenses and State ID's are not expensive or too burdensome. It takes an hour of time, and $50 bucks to get both forms of ID or less. All of the whining is just laziness and looking for excuses and something else to blame white people for...something. More stupid nonsense "Oppression!" These people can REEE the fuck off.

Get a valid form of ID, walk their stupid asses down to a local church, senior citizen center, school, or some government office, as appropriate, and fucking VOTE. It isn't rocket science, a fucking 10 year old child can comprehend how to get this shit done.

The fact that we have adults hopping around in newspaper articles and TV interviews crying about voter suppression and people being unable to get a goddamned ID is malignant and fucking stupid. These morons are frauds and fucking demagogues.

Goddamn these people need to grow the fuck up!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I agree. I came to America a few years back. It didn't take that long to get a valid ID. I think they're handling black people like children or something.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kiero on October 16, 2020, 03:50:04 am
What great lengths will your US media outlets go to pretend the revelations about Hunter Biden aren't happening today?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 16, 2020, 05:06:21 am
At this point, it almost seems like someone is purposely trying to cause enough Chaos to invalidate the election, no matter who wins.

1. Give people a week to vote, with one guaranteed paid day off to any worker during that time.
2. Voter ID system, with the gov’t paying for it.
3. In-person voting with paper ballots only, or solicited mail ballots through an application process, provided voter rolls are proven accurate.
4. Official party and neutral 3rd party auditors.
5. LEO security of ballots.
I'm good with all of these. But I think #4 is crucial -- the first step should be to investigate. We need to find those responsible for voter fraud, and understand the extent of the problem. We shouldn't blindly create new laws and systems without thorough investigation. If there is widespread fraud, then we should catch and prosecute those responsible.

As an addition regarding the census -- it would be reasonable to amend the Constitution to dispense with the census, and instead allocate seats based on the number of registered voters rather than the population. (This would be a change that hurts Democrats.)


The only people without ID’s are homeless or people so old they are outside the system and never got SS.

Voter ID is not an attempt to suppress the Black Vote, there’s other methods for that.
Voter ID is an attempt to suppress the Illegal Immigrant Vote, which should not exist to begin with.
There are many people who have a Social Security Number, but do not have a valid _photo_ ID. (Social Security cards are not photo ID.) Estimates vary, but even critics accept that there are at least 1% of registered voters who don't have a valid photo ID. The simplest cases are young people (especially 18-24) who do not yet have a driver's license. There are also many people (especially among the elderly) who previously had a driver's license, but it has expired.

I would agree that support for state-based voter ID laws are motivated primarily by claims of illegal immigrant votes or other fraud. Studies conflict over what effect they actually have, though. Some studies claim suppressed voter turnout, but others find no such effect on voter turnout. Here's a recent analysis for no visible effect, for example:

http://stanford.edu/~jgrimmer/comment_final.pdf

Conversely, though, there hasn't been demonstrated any significant effect of illegal immigrant vote suppression. Hence, I think there should be more data collection and investigation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 16, 2020, 09:07:49 am
If someone doesn't have a valid photo ID, then they should probably get one because it's hard to do a lot of things without it. You can't even get a library card here without an ID, so that 1% can fuck off for all I care. Instead of buying monster energy drinks and lottery tickets, save up the $15 for a fucking ID.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on October 16, 2020, 10:53:55 am
What great lengths will your US media outlets go to pretend the revelations about Hunter Biden aren't happening today?

The Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube are committing hari kiri to keep anything related to this off of their platforms.

What is it about this particular issue that they are willing to make this the hill they die on?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on October 16, 2020, 12:43:09 pm
What great lengths will your US media outlets go to pretend the revelations about Hunter Biden aren't happening today?

The Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube are committing hari kiri to keep anything related to this off of their platforms.

What is it about this particular issue that they are willing to make this the hill they die on?

Test run for election day when they will be shutting down even more users.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 16, 2020, 04:09:35 pm
What great lengths will your US media outlets go to pretend the revelations about Hunter Biden aren't happening today?
The Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube are committing hari kiri to keep anything related to this off of their platforms.

What is it about this particular issue that they are willing to make this the hill they die on?
Huh. So Trump shared a Babylon Bee article describing what was happening.

(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/121464494_10158692337493236_5064541145230044510_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=YMEsCRX2QWUAX-Jlftd&_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=33374e657508359ef2a415129bc0a6ab&oe=5FB137C3)

Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317044556328730625

Here's the Babylon Bee article:

Quote
In a last-ditch effort to stop negative stories about Joe Biden and his family from spreading, Twitter shut down its entire social network Thursday.

After seeing account after account tweet out one particularly bad story, CEO Jack Dorsey realized he had to take action. Dorsey smashed a glass box in his office reading "Break In Case Of Bad Publicity For Democrats." Inside the case was a sledgehammer for smashing Twitter's servers.

"Red alert -- shut the servers down! Shut them all down!"

Dorsey ran downstairs and started smashing as many computers as he could, but he did need to ask for some help, as the hammer was pretty heavy.

I don't expect much, but it's kind of amazing that Trump himself would share this blatant parody.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 16, 2020, 04:19:21 pm
Yeah, parody.

 ???
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 16, 2020, 04:58:57 pm
I don't expect much, but it's kind of amazing that Trump himself would share this blatant parody.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bXgULtz6cI
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hunter-biden-business-associate-flips-prison-releases-emails-detailing-china-influence

Yep, 100% parody.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on October 16, 2020, 05:05:07 pm

I don't expect much, but it's kind of amazing that Trump himself would share this blatant parody.

I think the proper term is 'satire' not 'parody'...
 
...and I am guessing maybe he found it funny and wanted to share the humor with his followers?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 17, 2020, 03:05:42 pm

I don't expect much, but it's kind of amazing that Trump himself would share this blatant parody.

I think the proper term is 'satire' not 'parody'...
 
...and I am guessing maybe he found it funny and wanted to share the humor with his followers?
He's been known to share things he finds humorous before. The only problem is that the left then loses their minds (well, more so than normal). He shared that gif of himself on WWE slamming some dude (with a CNN logo superimposed over his face) and the left went all out to dox the guy who made the gif. Classy.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 17, 2020, 10:14:12 pm
Remember black Americans, if you step out of line, the left will punch the teeth out of your mouth because they're the "Party of Science and Tolerance".

https://twitter.com/TeamSaveAmerica/status/1317549194119245824 (https://twitter.com/TeamSaveAmerica/status/1317549194119245824)

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 17, 2020, 10:21:18 pm
The Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube are committing hari kiri to keep anything related to this off of their platforms.

What is it about this particular issue that they are willing to make this the hill they die on?

There's no hari kari or hill dying...unfortunately.

If Harris/Biden wins, they will be rewarded.

If Trump wins, he didn't smash them for 4 years so it's doubtful anything will happen in the next 4 years, especially considering Bill Barr is about as useful as Droopy Dawg. I'd like to be wrong, but Trump's only focus will be the economy and judges and the AG will sit on his ass while the FBI continues to hinder justice.

I can't see the RINOs that make up the vast majority of Republicans in Congress raising a finger to stop Big Tech, let alone drain the swamp. They don't even care if Trump wins because they'd rather sit back and collect a salary under Biden while reclaiming "their party" from Trump's deplorables.

But Ted Cruz will definitely talk real tough about tech censorship on his podcast.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on October 17, 2020, 10:31:43 pm
Spinachcat, as usual your analysis looks good. It doesn't matter who the AG is, Trump has had 2 do nothings so far. The whole institution seems corrupt and tied to the two-tier justice system.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 18, 2020, 07:50:58 pm
I don't expect much, but it's kind of amazing that Trump himself would share this blatant parody.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bXgULtz6cI
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hunter-biden-business-associate-flips-prison-releases-emails-detailing-china-influence

Yep, 100% parody.

I don't get it. The point is that The Babylon Bee article that Trump linked is a parody. It is blatantly so. Are you trying to claim that The Babylon Bee article is *not* parody? The Babylon Bee openly declares itself to be a satire site, and the article Trump linked described the Twitter CEO smashing servers with a sledgehammer.

I'm not making any claim about Hunter Biden, just that The Babylon Bee article is satire. (And apologies if I'm misusing satire vs parody - the point is that it's humorous false content.)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Melichor on October 18, 2020, 10:01:35 pm
I don't get it. The point is that The Babylon Bee article that Trump linked is a parody. It is blatantly so. Are you trying to claim that The Babylon Bee article is *not* parody? The Babylon Bee openly declares itself to be a satire site, and the article Trump linked described the Twitter CEO smashing servers with a sledgehammer.

I'm not making any claim about Hunter Biden, just that The Babylon Bee article is satire. (And apologies if I'm misusing satire vs parody - the point is that it's humorous false content.)

There really isn't anything to get.
The people without TDS see Trump trolling the left, again.
The people with TDS think Trump really believes it, and tweeted it because Trump is ignorant and stupid.

As much as you want him to be ignorant and stupid, Trump is neither. He's an arrogant asshole and he lives in the heads of Elitist idiots.
It's big reason why mainstream Americans are supporting him. You know, all the people that are tired of the condescension, the name-calling, and the social engineering designed to eradicate the traditions and values they hold.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 18, 2020, 11:17:37 pm
I'm not making any claim about Hunter Biden, just that The Babylon Bee article is satire. (And apologies if I'm misusing satire vs parody - the point is that it's humorous false content.)

The point of Babylon Bee is that they exaggerate real news and trends. It wouldn't be funny if it didn't contain an element of truth.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 18, 2020, 11:45:08 pm
I'm not making any claim about Hunter Biden, just that The Babylon Bee article is satire. (And apologies if I'm misusing satire vs parody - the point is that it's humorous false content.)
There really isn't anything to get.
The people without TDS see Trump trolling the left, again.
The people with TDS think Trump really believes it, and tweeted it because Trump is ignorant and stupid.

As much as you want him to be ignorant and stupid, Trump is neither. He's an arrogant asshole and he lives in the heads of Elitist idiots.
It's big reason why mainstream Americans are supporting him. You know, all the people that are tired of the condescension, the name-calling, and the social engineering designed to eradicate the traditions and values they hold.
From my perspective, being an Internet troll isn't particularly better than being ignorant and stupid.

Personally, I've voted against him, but I don't think he's literally Hitler. In some ways, he's been better than George W. Bush -- notably in not getting us into new foreign wars. But his Twitter stream frequently makes me feel embarrassed as an American. I don't care if he's trolling or not - it's bad either way.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 19, 2020, 12:40:11 am
The reason Trump tweeted the Babylon Bee story is because the NY Post story was being shut down by Our Lords & Masters in Silicon Valley.

However, as the Babylon Bee story satirized the Twitter response to the NY Post, it gave Trump a way to get people informed about the situation, especially as he knows the TDS crowd would boost the signal...and thus effectively boost the alarm that Twitter was in the back pocket of Biden and censoring an important story.

Here's the fun part. This is what was waiting for everyone at the Babylon Bee:
https://babylonbee.com/news/you-should-absolutely-not-read-the-disgusting-totally-false-story-about-joe-bidens-son-that-were-linking-in-this-article (https://babylonbee.com/news/you-should-absolutely-not-read-the-disgusting-totally-false-story-about-joe-bidens-son-that-were-linking-in-this-article)

And this one too.
https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-shares-babylon-bee-article-thousands-accept-jesus-into-their-hearts (https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-shares-babylon-bee-article-thousands-accept-jesus-into-their-hearts)

I'm not a big believer in Trump's 4D chess, but this was a sharp maneuver to evade social media censors.

Also, it drove tremendous traffic to the Babylon Bee which somehow manages to be Christian AND funny. It's got that same edge as Mad magazine and the Onion, and isn't afraid to make jokes about both Trump and Christians.

And humor is dangerous.

It's especially dangerous when people start wondering why would the Orange Monster ever link to a site that makes fun of him regularly?


But his Twitter stream frequently makes me feel embarrassed as an American.

Who are you kidding? Leftists aren't Americans.

2020 was the year your masks fell off.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on October 19, 2020, 01:08:13 am
Wait your voting against Trump who made peace deal and never went to war because of his tweets?  THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU JHKIM?  Are you fucking that shallow?

Jhkim: "Yeah I like the fact Trump never went to war and TRIED to pull troops out of the middle east, but he is so rude...  Those tweets are horrible.  I might as well send more young people off to die because at least I get to look good."

That is what you sound like right now jhkim.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 19, 2020, 01:28:53 am
Personally, I've voted against him, but I don't think he's literally Hitler. In some ways, he's been better than George W. Bush -- notably in not getting us into new foreign wars. But his Twitter stream frequently makes me feel embarrassed as an American. I don't care if he's trolling or not - it's bad either way.

I'm embarassed by the Democrats, Biden and Harris. Biden is a senile codger who is so out of touch, he thought "If you don't vote for me, you're not black!" would be an appropriate thing to say, joke or not.
And Harris is a slimeball. She accused Biden of racism and sexism and then put her knives away when offered to be his Veep.

This is the best the Democrat party could muster to run aqainst Trump. It's pathetic.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 19, 2020, 02:09:42 am
Wait your voting against Trump who made peace deal and never went to war because of his tweets?  THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU JHKIM?  Are you fucking that shallow?

Jhkim: "Yeah I like the fact Trump never went to war and TRIED to pull troops out of the middle east, but he is so rude...  Those tweets are horrible.  I might as well send more young people off to die because at least I get to look good."

That is what you sound like right now jhkim.
Please calm the fuck down, Snowman0147.

I said that I didn't vote for him, and I said that I disliked his tweets. That doesn't mean that I didn't vote for him *because* of his tweets. His tweets were the topic under discussion.

Generally speaking, I'm a strong social liberal, a pro-individual-rights federalist, a pro-nuclear environmentalist, an economic moderate, and a mostly non-military-interventionist in foreign affairs. That generally puts me in the Democrat camp, even though there are issues I disagree with them on.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on October 19, 2020, 02:27:00 am
No it doesn't.  That sounds like your mostly Republican in these days and that is how much the Democrats went nuts.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 19, 2020, 03:38:39 am
I'm embarassed by the Democrats, Biden and Harris.

Why? It's not like they've hidden who and what they are.

There is no Biden. He's the placeholder for Harris and she's the placeholder for those pulling the strings to ensure a socialist breakdown of America.

And more importantly, that's what Biden/Harris voters want. They're not "innocent and confused"! They're not "fellow citizens with different ideas". They want Biden and Harris because they know both are malleable and not going to stand in the way of the real plan. Of course, the Biden/Harris sheeple have no clue that the socialism they're clamoring for isn't utopia. As the 20th century showed us with 100 million corpses, the reality is quite the opposite.   

There is no "the Democrats" anymore. This isn't the party of FDR or JFK or even Bill Clinton. They are the Socialist Party now, loud and proud, and identity politics is their weapon of choice because it works so well.

I'm not joking about 2020 as the year the masks have fallen off.

We are staring into the face of communist oblivion, whether its grandpa Biden, laffy laugh Harris, the unhinged violence of Burn Loot Murder or the oh-so-moderate sounding words of Bay Area limousine liberals.

This election isn't some white glove university debate where the winner gets to choose the tea. The "Democrats" are here to crumble America. Don't think so? Why would you NOT crumble a nation that's 100% racist, sexist, homophobic and evil? In fact, it's their moral duty!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 19, 2020, 04:28:39 am
No it doesn't.  That sounds like your mostly Republican in these days and that is how much the Democrats went nuts.
I disagree, and I'm fine to debate it if you accept that it's not about the tweets (though they certainly don't help).

As far as going nuts, I think the public on both sides of the political spectrum have gone into insane levels of partisanship - where the other side are demons set upon destruction and hatred. I mostly blame social media for this one, but politicians and news media (left-leaning and right-leaning) are part of it as well.

The actual political differences aren't nearly the craziness that are described, though. I saw no signs of gulags or killing fields after eight years of Obama's presidency. I thought he was pretty moderate. Trump also hasn't been as extreme as he's portrayed, but there's still been plenty of negatives. Not getting into major wars was good, but his actions with Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Afghanistan have done little to improve the situation - though to be fair, all our recent presidents have made a hash of the Middle East. He's also pissed off essentially all of our traditional allies. He's been openly anti-environmental, promoting frickin coal while doing nothing about nuclear power.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on October 19, 2020, 05:39:32 am
Who are you kidding? Leftists aren't Americans.

2020 was the year your masks fell off.
So in 2020, the ones not wearing masks are un-American Leftists? Well, that explains some things...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Steven Mitchell on October 19, 2020, 06:29:17 am
I'm embarassed by the Democrats, Biden and Harris. Biden is a senile codger who is so out of touch, he thought "If you don't vote for me, you're not black!" would be an appropriate thing to say, joke or not.
And Harris is a slimeball. She accused Biden of racism and sexism and then put her knives away when offered to be his Veep.

This is the best the Democrat party could muster to run aqainst Trump. It's pathetic.

In the past, I was embarrassed for the democrats.  You know, the same way you feel embarrassment for anyone saying something so stupid that everyone in the room has to avert their eyes, but the speaker can't even pick up on that.  Now, it's more like what you ended with.  The left is no longer American in any meaningful sense of the word.  They deserve mockery and shunning and are rapidly moving into territory of a more serious nature in the question of what they deserve.  The remaining normal people voting Democrat are pitiful. 

My favorite line this election from a classical liberal who wasn't exactly red-pilled but close enough for this election:  "I will never forgive the Democrats for making me vote for Trump."  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 19, 2020, 09:43:45 am
Generally speaking, I'm a strong social liberal, a pro-individual-rights federalist, a pro-nuclear environmentalist, an economic moderate, and a mostly non-military-interventionist in foreign affairs. That generally puts me in the Democrat camp, even though there are issues I disagree with them on.

This is like the exact opposite of the current Democrat party...are you fucking dense?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 19, 2020, 10:15:37 am
Generally speaking, I'm a strong social liberal, a pro-individual-rights federalist, a pro-nuclear environmentalist, an economic moderate, and a mostly non-military-interventionist in foreign affairs. That generally puts me in the Democrat camp, even though there are issues I disagree with them on.

This is like the exact opposite of the current Democrat party...are you fucking dense?
I have to admit, I did a double-take as well. Particularly in regards to individual rights and nuclear power.

We've seen the contempt the left has for not just the 2nd Amendment, but the First as well.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on October 19, 2020, 10:42:26 am
Also, it drove tremendous traffic to the Babylon Bee which somehow manages to be Christian AND funny. It's got that same edge as Mad magazine and the Onion, and isn't afraid to make jokes about both Trump and Christians.

Probably the best one of theirs I saw recently:  https://babylonbee.com/news/close-call-this-christian-radio-dj-accidentally-played-the-same-song-for-3-weeks-straight-but-luckily-no-one-noticed (https://babylonbee.com/news/close-call-this-christian-radio-dj-accidentally-played-the-same-song-for-3-weeks-straight-but-luckily-no-one-noticed)

Just reminds me so much of the music I used to hear at my buddy's Unitarian church back in the 90's.

JHKim is totally a Republican.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Delete_me on October 19, 2020, 10:50:34 am
This is like the exact opposite of the current Democrat party...are you fucking dense?

Quote from: The Democratic Party Platform, pg. 51, 2020
...our technology-neutral approach is inclusive of all zero-carbon technologies, including hydroelectric power, geothermal, existing and advanced nuclear, and carbon capture and storage.

Quote from:  pg 90, 2020
...it’s past time, however, to rebalance our tools,engagement, and relationships in the Middle East away from military intervention—leading with pragmatic diplomacy to lay the groundwork for a more peaceful, stable, and free region.

Or maybe you're so far up your own media you've lost all ability to see nuance? Stop believing your own boogeyman stories and start actually being Conservative.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 19, 2020, 02:03:16 pm
Or maybe you're so far up your own media you've lost all ability to see nuance? Stop believing your own boogeyman stories and start actually being Conservative.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/368581-california-approves-closure-of-last-nuclear-power-plant

LOL

Maybe get a fucking clue..?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 19, 2020, 02:43:23 pm
Or maybe you're so far up your own media you've lost all ability to see nuance? Stop believing your own boogeyman stories and start actually being Conservative.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/368581-california-approves-closure-of-last-nuclear-power-plant

LOL

Maybe get a fucking clue..?
I agree that California and most Democrats are biased against nuclear power. But the Republican party and Republican-dominated states are no better with nuclear power, and they have the bonus of promoting fossil fuels. Trump in particular has been promoting coal power.

There have been some bipartisan efforts that have quietly paved the way for more nuclear power under Obama and under Trump, but they're faltering mostly under public opinion on nuclear power which is increasingly negative.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 19, 2020, 04:24:00 pm
Trump in particular has been promoting coal power.

Could you provide a source for this?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Delete_me on October 19, 2020, 04:38:36 pm
Maybe get a fucking clue..?

I'd ask you to figure out what nuance means first, but nobody cares if you do.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on October 19, 2020, 05:30:08 pm
Trump has been protecting coal miners so they can keep their jobs and put food on the table for their families.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 19, 2020, 05:55:43 pm
I'd ask you to figure out what nuance means first, but nobody cares if you do.

What's it like to be proven demonstrably wrong, and yet claim you're right?

"Nuance" - a weaselly lawyer word to avoid perjury.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Delete_me on October 19, 2020, 06:07:39 pm
I'm not in the habit of answering self-reflective rhetorical questions someone else asks, so I'll wait for you to answer yourself.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 19, 2020, 07:17:27 pm
Trump in particular has been promoting coal power.
Could you provide a source for this?
Sure.

From whitehouse.gov,
Quote
LETTING COAL COUNTRY WORK AGAIN: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed legislation (House Joint Resolution 38) to stop the costly “Stream Protection Rule” from further harming coal workers and the communities that depend on them.
Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-trump-putting-coal-country-back-work/

From Fox News,
Quote
President Trump had promised to do everything he could to lift the coal mining industry. Trump began to make good on his pledge last month when he eliminated the Stream Protection Rule, which had placed layers of regulations on the industry.
Source: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coal-mining-begins-seeing-revival-as-trump-gives-industry-hope


Trump has been protecting coal miners so they can keep their jobs and put food on the table for their families.
The only reason why coal can be profitable is because they are allowed to dump poisons into the environment without repercussion - while nuclear and other industries are held to much stricter regulation. The pollution caused by coal has clearly proven negative effects on the workers as well as everyone else, costing thousands of lives every year. That's a clear network externality. Government needs to regulate, or coal can continue to profit by shitting on everyone else. It's foolish and harmful to prop it up.

I'm all for helping former miners find other work, but poisoning everyone so they can keep doing the job they used to is not a positive for the nation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 19, 2020, 07:29:03 pm
He's been openly anti-environmental, promoting frickin coal while doing nothing about nuclear power.

I know that many people do not like Michael Moore and sure he looks like the archetypal old fat racist white man and on the other hand his movie Planet of the Humans makes some interesting points regarding "Green" energy.

And of course you have the rolling blackouts in California.

But yeah frickin coal, am I right?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on October 19, 2020, 07:49:43 pm
I'd ask you to figure out what nuance means first, but nobody cares if you do.

What's it like to be proven demonstrably wrong, and yet claim you're right?

"Nuance" - a weaselly lawyer word to avoid perjury.

You need to start being “actually conservative”, Brad!  Just like all those Acela Repubs. 

Conservatism is about oligarchy, becoming a service economy, imperialism, and globalism.  All while preferring to unilaterally hold to the queensberry rules even if it means getting blown off the political battlefield by an opponent who does not.  The traditions our founding fathers fought for.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 19, 2020, 08:01:00 pm
I know that many people do not like Michael Moore and sure he looks like the archetypal old fat racist white man and on the other hand his movie Planet of the Humans makes some interesting points regarding "Green" energy.
I despise Moore, but Planet of the Humans sounds interesting. I might have to give it a watch.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 19, 2020, 11:55:07 pm
Everyone should always obey California.
https://babylonbee.com/news/state-with-no-electricity-orders-everyone-to-drive-cars-that-run-on-electricity (https://babylonbee.com/news/state-with-no-electricity-orders-everyone-to-drive-cars-that-run-on-electricity)

I despise Moore, but Planet of the Humans sounds interesting. I might have to give it a watch.

Utterly imperfect, but worth a watch.

My interest got piqued when the Climate Clowns demanded the movie be memory holed and Michael Moore cancelled. No surprise because while it fumbles constantly, it shatters the "green myth" of electric cars.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 20, 2020, 01:02:38 am
The only reason why coal can be profitable is because they are allowed to dump poisons into the environment without repercussion - while nuclear and other industries are held to much stricter regulation. The pollution caused by coal has clearly proven negative effects on the workers as well as everyone else, costing thousands of lives every year. That's a clear network externality. Government needs to regulate, or coal can continue to profit by shitting on everyone else. It's foolish and harmful to prop it up.

I'm all for helping former miners find other work, but poisoning everyone so they can keep doing the job they used to is not a positive for the nation.

It sounds like your issue isn't with Trump supporting coal, or coal power, but the specific regulations (or lack therof) that exist now.

If you don't live near convenient hydroelectric power, hydrocarbon is the only viable alternative right now. Those electric cars need to pollute somehow to juice up their batteries.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 20, 2020, 04:04:52 am

The only reason why coal can be profitable is because they are allowed to dump poisons into the environment without repercussion - while nuclear and other industries are held to much stricter regulation. The pollution caused by coal has clearly proven negative effects on the workers as well as everyone else, costing thousands of lives every year. That's a clear network externality. Government needs to regulate, or coal can continue to profit by shitting on everyone else. It's foolish and harmful to prop it up.

I'm all for helping former miners find other work, but poisoning everyone so they can keep doing the job they used to is not a positive for the nation.

OK, now you can justify your statement that coal can only be profitable if the industry is allowed to wantonly pollute. Let's see the supporting evidence.

Is Trump rolling back the ridiculous overregulation of the EPA? Yes, and a damn good thing it is.

I know you believe that Orange Man Bad, but he's still not a mustache twirling cartoon villain as you suggest.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 20, 2020, 08:22:45 am
Guess those coal miners should just #learntocode amirite?

Oh wait, that didn't play well for the Democrats AT ALL, did it?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 20, 2020, 09:48:03 am
You need to start being “actually conservative”, Brad!  Just like all those Acela Repubs. 

Conservatism is about oligarchy, becoming a service economy, imperialism, and globalism.  All while preferring to unilaterally hold to the queensberry rules even if it means getting blown off the political battlefield by an opponent who does not.  The traditions our founding fathers fought for.

Idealism is all fine and nice, but does fuck all during an actual war. Pontificating in ivory towers about shouldland is best left to the pseudo-intellectuals because they literally offer nothing valuable that's applicable to real life. I thank Thomas Sowell for making me feel better about having abject contempt for those morons.

Anyway, two more things...I voted this morning, didn't wear a fucking mask and I was the only one doing so. No one said a word, and some of the people looked at me like they wanted to take theirs off, so maybe this small act of defiance will encourage others not to let their rights be so easily trampled.

Further, modern coal-burning plants are some of the most sophisticated things ever created and are essentially carbon-neutral once you factor in all the mitigation protocols during the process. Just like modern diesel engines...which are FAR more environmentally friendly than electric, but you'll never hear a leftist utter such words as that would totally blow holes in their "climate change" agenda. If they're so concerned with the climate, why do they fly around in private jets and live in 10k sqft houses?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 22, 2020, 04:11:13 pm
The only reason why coal can be profitable is because they are allowed to dump poisons into the environment without repercussion - while nuclear and other industries are held to much stricter regulation. The pollution caused by coal has clearly proven negative effects on the workers as well as everyone else, costing thousands of lives every year. That's a clear network externality. Government needs to regulate, or coal can continue to profit by shitting on everyone else. It's foolish and harmful to prop it up.

I'm all for helping former miners find other work, but poisoning everyone so they can keep doing the job they used to is not a positive for the nation.
It sounds like your issue isn't with Trump supporting coal, or coal power, but the specific regulations (or lack therof) that exist now.

If you don't live near convenient hydroelectric power, hydrocarbon is the only viable alternative right now. Those electric cars need to pollute somehow to juice up their batteries.
Minor nitpick: Nuclear currently generates around 20% of U.S. power, along with 7% hydroelectric, 7% wind, and 2% solar. (source (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3)) Still, I agree that hydrocarbon is necessary and can't be avoided - but that doesn't mean that we should be actively promoting it - particularly coal which is the most polluting form.

Yes, I have a problem with the regulations - and Trump has been promoting coal power by weakening the regulations that exist around it, among other things. Trump supporters say that those regulations were pointless (like jeff37923) but in general I disagree. Coal is the most polluting of modern energy sources. It releases not just carbon dioxide, but also particulates, mercury, lead, and other contaminants into the atmosphere. Coal is responsible for about 40% of the mercury release in the U.S., for example. This study found that "between 2005 and 2016, the shutdown of coal-fired units saved an estimated 26,610 lives and 570 million bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat in their immediate vicinities". That's purely in local effects.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200106141445.htm

In general, air pollution has been improving in the U.S. - but it's still a huge cost that is born by the country and not the industries producing it.


Idealism is all fine and nice, but does fuck all during an actual war. Pontificating in ivory towers about shouldland is best left to the pseudo-intellectuals because they literally offer nothing valuable that's applicable to real life.
Except we're not at fucking war. America's problems today are not caused by assault from another country - they're overwhelmingly caused by ourselves. As a whole, our country has more material wealth than we have ever had - but lots of Americans are still miserable.

Intellectual pursuits like science and economics *do* apply to real life -- and turning against them has just made us more ignorant and miserable. Further, ideals like caring about truth, justice, equality, and our fellow human beings have measurable results in making use less miserable.


Further, modern coal-burning plants are some of the most sophisticated things ever created and are essentially carbon-neutral once you factor in all the mitigation protocols during the process. Just like modern diesel engines...which are FAR more environmentally friendly than electric, but you'll never hear a leftist utter such words as that would totally blow holes in their "climate change" agenda. If they're so concerned with the climate, why do they fly around in private jets and live in 10k sqft houses?
Source on this? All the scientific sources that I read are roughly in agreement. Modern coal might be cleaner than older coal plants, but they are still the most polluting source out there - of not just carbon dioxide, but also mercury, lead, and particulates. Here's one analysis, for example:

https://noharm-uscanada.org/sites/default/files/documents-files/828/Health_Effects_Coal_Use_Energy_Generation.pdf
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on October 23, 2020, 01:39:14 am
Wait. I thought we were all going to be living in an ice age eating soylent green by 1997 unless we did something by 1977.... oh, that's right. Those scientists' predictions ere WRONG! As was needing to decrease the world population in order to feed the world - especially since arable land was going to be toxic by 1989. Oh, wait - I forgot, they said that in 1969. Wait. What about that planet roaster pipeline from Canada. That's right! By 2030 we'll all be living underwater or on Al Gore's Ark! Thank goodness! I really thought THE COAL was gonna DO US ALL IN FOR GOOD. *sigh*

Wat fud.

Sauce: https://www.foxnews.com/science/10-times-experts-predicted-the-world-would-end-by-now
(I remember all this when I went to school and they are SEVERELY UNDERPLAYING all this shite that was THE GOSPEL TRUTH ACCORDING TO SCIENCE! You know, those evil people whose maths are racist! And are either white, know someone white, wear white lab coats, or are fashists anyway!) :P

Update: I watched the debates... It was entertaining to say the least. I was very surprised with Joe Biden! He seemed very lucid tonight. Of course, I remember his run from 87, as well as Trump's.  An OSR election, or at least it would be if Biden's VP pick was Hubert Humphreys! lol... Here's a cool thing I found: https://youtu.be/_f2Z30j61aw This world is truly F**KED. lol
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 23, 2020, 03:46:51 am
Sauce: https://www.foxnews.com/science/10-times-experts-predicted-the-world-would-end-by-now
(I remember all this when I went to school and they are SEVERELY UNDERPLAYING all this shite that was THE GOSPEL TRUTH ACCORDING TO SCIENCE! You know, those evil people whose maths are racist! And are either white, know someone white, wear white lab coats, or are fashists anyway!) :P

So there's a list that spans multiple decades by "experts" in a variety of fields ranging from metallurgy to climate, looking for predictions that were wrong. And what did they come up with:

#1: A verbal statement on global warming by Noel Brown, who has a PhD in International Relations and served as a director at the U.N.

#2: A pop-culture book on famine written by a PhD plant pathologist (William Paddock) and a veteran of the Foreign Service (Paul Paddock).

#3: Verbal quotes on global freezing from a professor with a PhD in Zoology (Ken Watt), and a physics B.A. and educator (Nigel Calder).

#4: Another verbal statement on global warming by Noel Brown from #1.

#5: There doesn’t appear to be any #5.

#6: Verbal statement by Al Gore, for his film. Gore has a B.A. in Government and of course a career as a politician.

#7: Vague verbal statement on environmental disaster by Mostafa Tolba, who was a PhD plant pathologist and U.N. administrator.

#8: Verbal statement on mass extinction from Gaylord Nelson, who was a lawyer and U.S. Senator who supported environmental causes including Earth Day.

#9: Publication in Scientific American by Harrison Brown, a prominent PhD nuclear geochemist.

#10: Not actually a prediction, but a verbal statement by climatologist Stephen Schneider about talking to the public in simplified terms - and a similar quote by Timothy Wirth, who has a PhD in Education and was a U.S. Senator.


The only one of these that comes close to being a scientific prediction is #9 about metallurgy, if it is true. None of the others are even from scientists working in their fields, let alone peer-reviewed publications. I haven't read the source for #9 yet - maybe it really is a bad prediction, though it might also be misinterpreted.

Scientists do really make mistakes from time to time - it's possible that this was a real blunder. But the track record of published, peer-reviewed science is *vastly* better than the statements of politicians, administrators, activists, YouTubers, and pundits. Even if #9 is genuine blunder, I don't see how that should change my view of science as a whole compared to other sources.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 23, 2020, 07:51:54 am
You wanna talk about Michael Mann, jhkim?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 23, 2020, 09:24:07 am
Except we're not at fucking war. America's problems today are not caused by assault from another country - they're overwhelmingly caused by ourselves. As a whole, our country has more material wealth than we have ever had - but lots of Americans are still miserable.

Intellectual pursuits like science and economics *do* apply to real life -- and turning against them has just made us more ignorant and miserable. Further, ideals like caring about truth, justice, equality, and our fellow human beings have measurable results in making use less miserable.

Thank you for fully proving my point. You are willfully ignorant of simple facts, like China actively trying to undermine our government and destroy the US from within, all while being "intellectually superior" due to a piece of paper. The reason people are ignorant and miserable is because they turned away from what really matters: family, God, and hard work.

Quote
Source on this? All the scientific sources that I read are roughly in agreement. Modern coal might be cleaner than older coal plants, but they are still the most polluting source out there - of not just carbon dioxide, but also mercury, lead, and particulates. Here's one analysis, for example:

https://noharm-uscanada.org/sites/default/files/documents-files/828/Health_Effects_Coal_Use_Energy_Generation.pdf

Why do "climate change scientists" fly around in jets to conferences all over the world? Why aren't people advocating for putting a stop to major sources of greenhouse gasses like volcanoes and the Amazon rain forest? How does paying higher taxes magically fix the weather?

Maybe you need to stop being such a fucktard.

Scientists do really make mistakes from time to time - it's possible that this was a real blunder. But the track record of published, peer-reviewed science is *vastly* better than the statements of politicians, administrators, activists, YouTubers, and pundits. Even if #9 is genuine blunder, I don't see how that should change my view of science as a whole compared to other sources.

Peer-reviewed science is total horseshit, sorry. It's agenda driven for the most part, and a lot of studies are based on falsified results. Your inability to even entertain the idea that "scientists" have any sort of personal stake in the outcome of their research is not only ridiculous but makes you look even more foolish than I thought possible. You are an actual moron.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on October 23, 2020, 11:23:45 am
Am I the only one around here that literally does not give a single shit about "Climate Change"?

I honestly don't. Every time someone brings it up, it turns into their doomsday apocalypse prophecy that literally NO ONE reading this can affect (and likely don't practice being carbon-neutral in their own lives) - and the proponents of these ideas are likewise doing nothing to affect things other than pontificate about it.  Or worse, they're profiting off the phenomenon by pumping fear in order for you to buy their shit.

It's disingenuous in its presentation and practice. It's not economically feasible by their own proponents (unless you buy their shit). It's the scientific equivalent of angels-pinhead-dancing-calculation in discussion and completely free of reality. And if America were "carbon-neutral" it would not change one single thing.

This is a horribly designed game.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 23, 2020, 11:44:47 am
Nah, I'm there with you, tenbones.

The problem I've had for a while has been the deceptive practices of the so called 'climate experts'. The models don't match up, the data is massaged, and the raw results always seem to go mysteriously missing. The infamous 'Climategate' emails basically killed any interest I had in the phenomena.

Now I'm being lectured by an autistic moppet who should be down on her knees thanking modern civilization that she hasn't been married off like so much chattel in exchange for a dowry.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 23, 2020, 12:17:23 pm
Am I the only one around here that literally does not give a single shit about "Climate Change"?

My research is specifically in green energy, so I have to read a ton of crap about climate change. Fundamentally, I think green energy is a perfectly valid concept: why pollute if you don't have to? It's also important to find renewable sources of energy specifically because computing power is increasing at an astronomical rate and we might literally be unable to power datacenters and whatever else, which means stuff like phones and computers and pretty much anything reliant on the Internet will cease to operate. So it's a big deal, but NOT in the way leftist try to frame the problem.

RE: climate change, it is 100% total horseshit. 100%. Anyone who believes otherwise is a goddamn moron, sorry. I have read so many fucking studies on this shit, and we are essentially helpless to alter the climate in any meaningful way. Yet, everything is based on blaming humans for fucking up the climate.

Anyone remember when cow farts were going to cause the next ice age? That's what passes as legitimate scientific study in the real of climate change, speculating that due to the vast number of cattle used for human consumption releasing methane into the atmosphere, humans are actually responsible for the Earth getting all fucked up. It ALWAYS goes back to how humans are the root cause of any sort of cooling or warming on Earth, never anything else. Ever.

Climate change "science" is nothing more than modern day snake oil and leftist fucktards eat it up like it's candy. Feels over facts! Humans are bad! We need to protect Mother Gaia! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 23, 2020, 12:17:46 pm
Oops double post
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on October 23, 2020, 01:07:14 pm
Nah, I'm there with you, tenbones.

The problem I've had for a while has been the deceptive practices of the so called 'climate experts'. The models don't match up, the data is massaged, and the raw results always seem to go mysteriously missing. The infamous 'Climategate' emails basically killed any interest I had in the phenomena.

Now I'm being lectured by an autistic moppet who should be down on her knees thanking modern civilization that she hasn't been married off like so much chattel in exchange for a dowry.

If she's wasn't killed at birth for defects to begin with.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 23, 2020, 02:23:04 pm
Now I'm being lectured by an autistic moppet who should be down on her knees thanking modern civilization that she hasn't been married off like so much chattel in exchange for a dowry.
I'll respond to some other points in a bit, but I have to ask: What is this about? Is it a reference to me, or to someone else here? It seems like a non-sequitur to the current conversation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 23, 2020, 03:51:58 pm
I'll respond to some other points in a bit, but I have to ask: What is this about? Is it a reference to me, or to someone else here? It seems like a non-sequitur to the current conversation.
Greta Thunberg, the current darling of the watermelon left.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 23, 2020, 04:50:02 pm
I'll respond to some other points in a bit, but I have to ask: What is this about? Is it a reference to me, or to someone else here? It seems like a non-sequitur to the current conversation.
Greta Thunberg, the current darling of the watermelon left.

How dare you!



 ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 23, 2020, 04:58:54 pm
I'll respond to some other points in a bit, but I have to ask: What is this about? Is it a reference to me, or to someone else here? It seems like a non-sequitur to the current conversation.
Greta Thunberg, the current darling of the watermelon left.
Ah. Thanks for the clarification, Ghostmaker.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 23, 2020, 06:45:06 pm
Am I the only one around here that literally does not give a single shit about "Climate Change"?

I honestly don't. Every time someone brings it up, it turns into their doomsday apocalypse prophecy that literally NO ONE reading this can affect (and likely don't practice being carbon-neutral in their own lives) - and the proponents of these ideas are likewise doing nothing to affect things other than pontificate about it.  Or worse, they're profiting off the phenomenon by pumping fear in order for you to buy their shit.

It's disingenuous in its presentation and practice. It's not economically feasible by their own proponents (unless you buy their shit). It's the scientific equivalent of angels-pinhead-dancing-calculation in discussion and completely free of reality. And if America were "carbon-neutral" it would not change one single thing.

This is a horribly designed game.

I give a single shit or maybe two. The climate narrative is driving some very bad decisions about alternative energy, nuclear power and pollution. Not to mention it's one of those polarizing dog whistles. "You don't believe in climate change? Which oil company bought you?"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on October 23, 2020, 07:04:45 pm
Am I the only one around here that literally does not give a single shit about "Climate Change"?

My research is specifically in green energy, so I have to read a ton of crap about climate change. Fundamentally, I think green energy is a perfectly valid concept: why pollute if you don't have to? It's also important to find renewable sources of energy specifically because computing power is increasing at an astronomical rate and we might literally be unable to power datacenters and whatever else, which means stuff like phones and computers and pretty much anything reliant on the Internet will cease to operate. So it's a big deal, but NOT in the way leftist try to frame the problem.

RE: climate change, it is 100% total horseshit. 100%. Anyone who believes otherwise is a goddamn moron, sorry. I have read so many fucking studies on this shit, and we are essentially helpless to alter the climate in any meaningful way. Yet, everything is based on blaming humans for fucking up the climate.

Anyone remember when cow farts were going to cause the next ice age? That's what passes as legitimate scientific study in the real of climate change, speculating that due to the vast number of cattle used for human consumption releasing methane into the atmosphere, humans are actually responsible for the Earth getting all fucked up. It ALWAYS goes back to how humans are the root cause of any sort of cooling or warming on Earth, never anything else. Ever.

Climate change "science" is nothing more than modern day snake oil and leftist fucktards eat it up like it's candy. Feels over facts! Humans are bad! We need to protect Mother Gaia! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

This was pretty much my take on it too when I started looking into it.

As an aside - my dayjob is primarily in data analytics and reporting (where I work in that other politicized hellhole: Covid research/care). And I can tell you the amount of political bullshit (like lockdowns and handwringing over the deaths and laying them at the feat of Trump) is based on so much bullshit hot-takes by the press and politicians, just from the complexity of the problem (logistics, research, testing, drug-manufacture, human trials etc) I can without having looked at a single scrap of paper on Climate Change tell you not to believe *anything* about Climate Change. (much less most of what you hear about Covid without proper context.)

Climate is so many orders of magnitude more complex than Covid. We have the best minds in the field working on Covid - and there are still a lot of things left to nothing but number-tracking. There is *no* fucking way these pinheads could be right on Climate Change.

Now something I do understand a lot is people. And when you can get people to believe in something that requires nothing but anecdotal evidence for ulterior purposes? Well my friend, you're sitting on a fucking goldmine.

Sure - go green if you can. But until you start putting Nuclear on the table to offset the lack of consistency from "Green energy" - it's unfeasible unless we're all willing to go full Luddite-mode.

Or they figure out how to make those Tokamak's to get through their 10-year testing cycle to bring their efficiency up (but that's been the pipe-dream for decades).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: tenbones on October 23, 2020, 07:05:38 pm
I'll respond to some other points in a bit, but I have to ask: What is this about? Is it a reference to me, or to someone else here? It seems like a non-sequitur to the current conversation.
Greta Thunberg, the current darling of the watermelon left.

How dare you!



 ;D


HAHAH I actually heard her voice when I read that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 23, 2020, 08:37:01 pm
Sure - go green if you can. But until you start putting Nuclear on the table to offset the lack of consistency from "Green energy" - it's unfeasible unless we're all willing to go full Luddite-mode.
I agree that nuclear is the best clean energy option, and we should be majorly expanding and developing nuclear power. Sadly, it remains unpopular among the wider public, and restricted by backwards attitudes. So I try my best to convince people to believe in the science on this topic - but it is a struggle.


Climate change "science" is nothing more than modern day snake oil and leftist fucktards eat it up like it's candy. Feels over facts! Humans are bad! We need to protect Mother Gaia! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
I do think that far too much of today's political discourse is about feels over facts. Overwhelmingly, most people don't read opposing viewpoints - and start out with a hostile attitude towards them. I would prefer to talk plainly over facts rather than feels. That brings us back to the prior claim:


Further, modern coal-burning plants are some of the most sophisticated things ever created and are essentially carbon-neutral once you factor in all the mitigation protocols during the process. Just like modern diesel engines...which are FAR more environmentally friendly than electric, but you'll never hear a leftist utter such words as that would totally blow holes in their "climate change" agenda.
Quote from: jhkim
Source on this? All the scientific sources that I read are roughly in agreement. Modern coal might be cleaner than older coal plants, but they are still the most polluting source out there - of not just carbon dioxide, but also mercury, lead, and particulates. Here's one analysis, for example:

https://noharm-uscanada.org/sites/default/files/documents-files/828/Health_Effects_Coal_Use_Energy_Generation.pdf
Why do "climate change scientists" fly around in jets to conferences all over the world? Why aren't people advocating for putting a stop to major sources of greenhouse gasses like volcanoes and the Amazon rain forest? How does paying higher taxes magically fix the weather?

Maybe you need to stop being such a fucktard.
This is dodging the question and irrelevant name-calling. You claim to care about facts, which I believe - so I'd ask that you engage about them. What is your basis for your claim about coal power?

If you want actual answers to your other questions, I can try to put together some - but they sound more like position statements than genuine questions. For example, magic doesn't exist - so paying higher taxes does not magically fix the weather.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 23, 2020, 09:06:25 pm
Science has been so compromised by politics and by scientists and science orgs allowing themselves to become political footballs, that I doubt the reputation of "science" is going to improve any time soon.

I recently had dinner with a friend with a physics doctorate whose written books on the history of scientific thought (with ghosting from my girlfriend) and he was breathing fire over how the phrases "settled science" and "the science is settled" are a dangerous poison. 

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on October 24, 2020, 12:36:27 pm
Somewhat election related, but former Facebook moderator admits that FB specifically targets conservatives and that they don't just censor, but flag content for research purposes to get a feel for what people are discussing, etc.

PS: The video is titled "People Can't CHANGE Their Votes After Latest News...", but they only touch on that briefly and most of the discussion is on biased FB moderation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qfq8GgreWg
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on October 25, 2020, 03:31:18 am
It appears that Taiwan has entered the battlefield.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/ (https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/)

BLM...Biden's Laptop Matters



Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on October 25, 2020, 04:02:07 am
There’s a small rhetorical trap in Bannon’s use of that outlet to release the video(s).  Very subtle of him, but a nice touch on his part
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on October 25, 2020, 05:14:03 am
Science has been so compromised by politics and by scientists and science orgs allowing themselves to become political footballs, that I doubt the reputation of "science" is going to improve any time soon.

I recently had dinner with a friend with a physics doctorate whose written books on the history of scientific thought (with ghosting from my girlfriend) and he was breathing fire over how the phrases "settled science" and "the science is settled" are a dangerous poison.

Greetings!

Indeed, my friend. It is boggling that Jhkim seems to be blind to this very real aspect. Science as a discipline--and "Scientists" have taken a huge hit to their credibility and with the public's respect for them over the last thirty years or so. From a variety of topics, from medicine, to "climate change", to food such as eggs and coffee, nutrition, dieting, scientists have been shown to be full of political ideologies and agendas, and always greedy for fucking money and gaining more prestige in their personal careers--all the while being entirely blind to the truth, evidence, and otherwise willing to sacrifice truth for their own personal agendas. It has gotten so bad that scientists are just like doctors or lawyers or psychologists--you can find such "experts" to say whatever the fuck you want them to say for enough money. Everyone knows this is the truth, and the reality--which is why so many people are very skeptical of much of anything that "scientists" claim. We all know they are greedy, cum-guzzling fucks that have sold out to some kind of ideology or just a corporation or business that keeps writing them big fucking checks.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 25, 2020, 03:33:32 pm
As a general point, something frustrating to me in the current discussion is that it feels like people aren't willing to stand by their factual claims and engage in criticism over them. consolcwby posted a Fox News list of bad predictions, which I took the trouble to read and analyze, but no one even disputes my criticism. It just gets dropped. brad made a claim that coal power is essentially carbon neutral, but hasn't posted any sources or links to back up that claim.

I believe in facts over feelings, which others seem to agree on. So let's discuss actual facts.


Science has been so compromised by politics and by scientists and science orgs allowing themselves to become political footballs, that I doubt the reputation of "science" is going to improve any time soon.
*Everything* has become tinged by politics at these times. Science has never been completely immune to politics, but it has safeguards against influence that are not in other sources.

The question is, if you reject science, what information sources *do* you regard as reliable? What sources are *not* compromised by politics and used as political footballs?


I recently had dinner with a friend with a physics doctorate whose written books on the history of scientific thought (with ghosting from my girlfriend) and he was breathing fire over how the phrases "settled science" and "the science is settled" are a dangerous poison.
I tend to agree that this is a problem. In these hyper-partisan times, people are almost never willing to admit any doubt or uncertainty. Instead, they are rigidly certain that their side is 100% correct, and the other side is 100% wrong.

That said, some things in science are fairly well understood. Even though it isn't 100%, we have a good idea of vaccine efficacy. Some things are known to 90% or even 99%.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on October 25, 2020, 03:38:29 pm
Jhkim, I often don't agree with you but do this time. Safer nuclear power should be the future power source, to be supplemented by natural gas, wind, solar, hydro, geothermal as needed. In my understanding, coal releases contaminants, even uranium, into the atmosphere.
However, most leftist politicians I see lump nuclear just as much in "bad power sources" as coal and oil.

My PhD in physics friend (and generally our Dungeon Master) is often far left on many issues but also agrees on nuclear power being used. Unfortunately, the left side of Congress (ex. AOC) and her ilk are dead set opposed. Politicians love to control through fear. Just look at COVID.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: deadDMwalking on October 25, 2020, 04:48:34 pm
Nuclear power (and nuclear waste) suffer from 'not in my backyard'.  So do landfills. 

Effectively, everyone agrees that nuclear power is great as long as it isn't anywhere near them, specifically.  I don't see red states like Wyoming (or previously ruby red Arizona) supporting measures to store waste within their borders. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on October 25, 2020, 04:59:48 pm
Sauce: https://www.foxnews.com/science/10-times-experts-predicted-the-world-would-end-by-now
(I remember all this when I went to school and they are SEVERELY UNDERPLAYING all this shite that was THE GOSPEL TRUTH ACCORDING TO SCIENCE! You know, those evil people whose maths are racist! And are either white, know someone white, wear white lab coats, or are fashists anyway!) :P

So there's a list that spans multiple decades by "experts" in a variety of fields ranging from metallurgy to climate, looking for predictions that were wrong. And what did they come up with:

#1: A verbal statement on global warming by Noel Brown, who has a PhD in International Relations and served as a director at the U.N.

So do you want us to support the UN or not?  Because we can do this all day nit picking if someone like say António Guterres is even qualified to speak on any subject except for Engineering and even that is questionable considering it has been 50 years since he graduated.

Frankly it is questionable if so called "Climate" Scientists are even real scientists at all.  You may as well call Economists, Hygiene Technicians and Political "Scientists" scientists.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 25, 2020, 08:34:19 pm
Frankly it is questionable if so called "Climate" Scientists are even real scientists at all.  You may as well call Economists, Hygiene Technicians and Political "Scientists" scientists.
Science is just knowledge, and the methods for acquiring it. So economists and political scientists are scientists.

But it's important to recognize there isn't some monolithic "science" whose techniques apply everywhere. When people think of "science", they tend to think of the hard sciences, specifically physics. Which is based on experiments that involves isolating a single variable, making a prediction beforehand, and then testing it. That's the gold standard, and delivers a high degree of surety about the results.

The problem is that doesn't work in a most fields. You can't test humans like particles, because of ethics. Not to mention, humans are hideously complex, making it impossible to isolate just one factor and control for everything else. Anything that involves human behavior, incidence in human populations, or fitting patterns to historical data is subject to all kinds of biases, imprecision, and other problems that don't exist in physics. The degree of surety is lower. Sometimes much, much lower.

This includes all of economics, political science, and all the other social sciences. Many aspects of medicine fall in this category as well -- what we know about pandemics are based on historical population studies, after all. Even astronomy qualifies -- while it's a lot harder than any of the other fields I mentioned, it's still based on observational data rather than direct experiments (we don't have a lot of black holes in labs). And, yes, the study of climate. The models are based on fitting patterns to past data, and try to control for all significant variables in an inordinately complex and chaotic system.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 25, 2020, 08:58:41 pm
Nuclear power (and nuclear waste) suffer from 'not in my backyard'.  So do landfills. 

Effectively, everyone agrees that nuclear power is great as long as it isn't anywhere near them, specifically.  I don't see red states like Wyoming (or previously ruby red Arizona) supporting measures to store waste within their borders.

That's why New Jersey exists...there's a nuke power plant about 150 miles from here that provides A LOT of power to three of the largest cities in the US. No one ever talks about it because my guess is they're ignorant of the fact it even exists. The only information you can find about it on the internet is basically a bunch of "environmentalists" bitching about where to put nuclear waste. I think they're burying the crap out in the desert somewhere. Why not just shoot it into the Sun? 100% serious here...

Also, completely ignoring Jhkim from now on as it's apparent his religious views are based on what someone in a lab coat says and not any sort of divine authority.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on October 25, 2020, 09:29:52 pm
I've seen a few critiques about the waste generated by "green" power, like solar and wind. I'm wondering-

1. How much land has to be covered by solar panels to power the entire United States.
2. How much waste is generated by constructing solar panels. I hear it's not inconsequential, and very toxic.
3. How much waste is generated by broken and used up solar panels and wind turbines.

In 5-10 years, are we going to have a "crisis" generated by so-called green energy? Is it going to be a situation where we trade one environmental disaster for another?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on October 25, 2020, 09:53:21 pm
In these hyper-partisan times, people are almost never willing to admit any doubt or uncertainty. Instead, they are rigidly certain that their side is 100% correct, and the other side is 100% wrong.

It isn't so much "hyper partisan" as it is "compromise would make no one happy", and "talking and admitting doubt or uncertainty" is really the compromise platform expressed differently.  When what two groups desire necessarily exclude the other's end points there's little point in settling for a third loaf no one wants except the uniparty leading both sides - they wanted the compromise solutions implemented to date as a primary goal. 

The right has already heavily compromised.  It's gained them nothing, as the economic structure advertised as free market was instead a path to corporatism/oligarchy (that is now almost entirely supporting the left), and they traded cultural standards for that unwanted economic state.    The left mostly got the cultural victories it sought, and pitches the compromise corporatism as a path to managed "democratic" socialism.  So no, you're not getting good faith conversation anymore from the other side of the cultural aisle.  That was burned.  Perhaps by others than you, but still the smoke remains.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 25, 2020, 10:02:12 pm
I've seen a few critiques about the waste generated by "green" power, like solar and wind. I'm wondering-

1. How much land has to be covered by solar panels to power the entire United States.
2. How much waste is generated by constructing solar panels. I hear it's not inconsequential, and very toxic.
3. How much waste is generated by broken and used up solar panels and wind turbines.

In 5-10 years, are we going to have a "crisis" generated by so-called green energy? Is it going to be a situation where we trade one environmental disaster for another?

Hydroelectric is easily the best of the "green energy" solutions. Dams last a long time...Hoover Dam has been around for almost 90 years and powers most of Nevada and a lot of southern California. Niagara Falls plants are far older than that and powers update NY and a lot of Ontario. As stated, easily the most efficient and best. Solar panels in their current state last something like 30(?) years. The real issue is damage; you have a panel out in a field, it'll get pummeled by hail or bird shitting on it or whatever. Windmills, those giant things, are total trash. They do not have a long life, have to be turned off in high winds (check out Youtube) and don't work for shit with low winds, etc. They are junk beyond powering a well like back in the old days, mostly because they require a lot of resources that will never be reclaimed. It costs far more energy to make a windmill than will ever be produced.

Honestly, burning wood is a good power source, and is probably be better than any renewable power source except hydro, but people seem to have a problem with smoke. For reasons? I dunno, this stuff gives me a headache even thinking about. Just work on fusion and be done with it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 26, 2020, 12:51:53 am
Why not just shoot it into the Sun? 100% serious here...


Requires too much delta V for a rocket or even a stream of rockets to de-orbit all nuclear waste into the sun. If you have the capability to do that, then you can build solar power satellites and solve most of the world's energy problem with those.

There are alternatives instead of burial like the new designs of small Thorium based fission reactors or breeder reactors. Main problem is the burdensome regulations on anything nuclear related.

 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/08/10/the_nuclear_regulatory_commission_working_itself_out_of_a_job_110241.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/

http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/08/whats-more-radioactive-than-nuclear.html
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on October 26, 2020, 06:01:37 am
Why not just shoot it into the Sun? 100% serious here...


Requires too much delta V for a rocket or even a stream of rockets to de-orbit all nuclear waste into the sun. If you have the capability to do that, then you can build solar power satellites and solve most of the world's energy problem with those.

There are alternatives instead of burial like the new designs of small Thorium based fission reactors or breeder reactors. Main problem is the burdensome regulations on anything nuclear related.

 https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/08/10/the_nuclear_regulatory_commission_working_itself_out_of_a_job_110241.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/

http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/08/whats-more-radioactive-than-nuclear.html
Thank you for those articles. I've only had time to read one of them this morning, but I plan to read the others after work.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 26, 2020, 07:59:49 am
Hydroelectric is easily the best of the "green energy" solutions. Dams last a long time...Hoover Dam has been around for almost 90 years and powers most of Nevada and a lot of southern California. Niagara Falls plants are far older than that and powers update NY and a lot of Ontario. As stated, easily the most efficient and best. Solar panels in their current state last something like 30(?) years. The real issue is damage; you have a panel out in a field, it'll get pummeled by hail or bird shitting on it or whatever. Windmills, those giant things, are total trash. They do not have a long life, have to be turned off in high winds (check out Youtube) and don't work for shit with low winds, etc. They are junk beyond powering a well like back in the old days, mostly because they require a lot of resources that will never be reclaimed. It costs far more energy to make a windmill than will ever be produced.

Honestly, burning wood is a good power source, and is probably be better than any renewable power source except hydro, but people seem to have a problem with smoke. For reasons? I dunno, this stuff gives me a headache even thinking about. Just work on fusion and be done with it.
There's only so many places you can put a hydro plant, as well.

Solar/wind power would be nice as backup/auxiliary sources, but they fail as a primary power source unless you have an excellent method of storing the extracted energy (which we don't).

Nuclear and geothermal are the way to go in the long term, but of course the NIMBY crowd will be all over you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on October 26, 2020, 08:12:21 am
Greetings!

I thought I have read about the Belgians--or maybe it was Denmark--or the Dutch--that have embraced windmills and just love the things. Why is it they make good and efficient use of windmill farms, but somehow, here in the United States it is an inefficient, money-wasting fiasco?

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 26, 2020, 09:17:20 am
Greetings!

I thought I have read about the Belgians--or maybe it was Denmark--or the Dutch--that have embraced windmills and just love the things. Why is it they make good and efficient use of windmill farms, but somehow, here in the United States it is an inefficient, money-wasting fiasco?

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
I would want to see specifics on how they're running their windmills. And mind you, it's Belgium.  Not exactly a LARGE country, albeit densely populated.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 26, 2020, 09:21:28 am
Greetings!

I thought I have read about the Belgians--or maybe it was Denmark--or the Dutch--that have embraced windmills and just love the things. Why is it they make good and efficient use of windmill farms, but somehow, here in the United States it is an inefficient, money-wasting fiasco?

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I have heard that Texas is big on wind power too.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on October 26, 2020, 09:59:07 am
Greetings!

I remember when I was studying "Politics of the Future"--a high-level political science class that was into all the weird things, new economies, ecology, new sciences and discoveries--it was a very cool class. There was several related classes, and I took all of them. My professor was definitely conservative, and had a balanced and vigorous approach to all kinds of things. He also threw us about a dozen books from a variety of thinkers, scholars, journalists, and such that demonstrated conclusively that there was in fact, a "Deep State" and groups of inter-connected uber-rich families that had been involved with building and organizing an essential oligarchy over the last century, involving families from the United States, Britain, Europe, and Japan. Hence, a uber-rich, power-hungry globalist elite seeking to control and manipulate economies and governments on a mass, global scale is not some crazy conspiracy, but based in real facts and evidence, with very real people and organizations. We also discussed global politics, modern warfare, global terrorism, the military-industrial complex, ecology movements, and new kinds of energy development. The evidence seemed to indicate that contrary to the environmentalist nuts--there was no magic formula, super technology, or some such that was going to revolutionize anything. My professor did however, suggest that a combination of new technologies, new resources, and new industrial and environmental and economic policies and processes, taken and organized together, could potentially serve to be a reasonably effective solution to our various environmental and energy challenges and needs. One of the partial solutions that could prove helpful was windpower, using the huge windmill farms. He discussed the various efforts in some of the Northern European countries, like Denmark and Holland. I don't have the citation or immediate source, but it was discussed in the textbooks we used, as well as the professor's own lecture materials, videos, interviews and so on. That was all from some 20 years ago, as well. I would hope that things have improved, but the environmentalists and the eco nuts seem crazier than ever before, and I don't know for certain we have made huge strides in making economies and environments much better off than in previous years, though I suspect there has been some degree of progress, just not the radical crazy kind demanded by the environmentalist crazies like AOC and her ilk.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on October 26, 2020, 10:48:08 am
The evidence seemed to indicate that contrary to the environmentalist nuts--there was no magic formula, super technology, or some such that was going to revolutionize anything. My professor did however, suggest that a combination of new technologies, new resources, and new industrial and environmental and economic policies and processes, taken and organized together, could potentially serve to be a reasonably effective solution to our various environmental and energy challenges and needs. One of the partial solutions that could prove helpful was windpower, using the huge windmill farms. He discussed the various efforts in some of the Northern European countries, like Denmark and Holland.
The biggest problem with wind is intermittency. Power grids require stable power, so when they use sources that fluctuate during the day, there needs to be a backup power source that's able to meet any slack in capacity, almost instantly. Which means for whatever amount of intermittent energy you use, you need to have that same capacity available in batteries, or be able to turn on and off other power sources on demand.

Except batteries are hideously inefficient, which ends up ballooning the amount of power you have to generate in the first place. And more stable power sources don't scale up and down efficiently, so there's either a huge overhead in varying their energy output, or you just run them at full capacity anyway and just dump the power when the intermittent energy sources are running at high capacity. Either can easily overwhelm the ostensible benefits of green energy.

I don't have a good feel for how this all works out. I can find studies on the lifecycle cost of windmills, but they only consider the construction costs, maintenance costs, and energy output. If they end up having to stand up new coal plants on still days to make up for the shortfall in wind energy, the pollution and waste generated to turn on and then turn off those plants might be greater than just running those plants at a steady capacity and ditching wind power. Nuclear is cleaner, but even harder to scale up and down, which means if you want to use a nuclear plant as backup for shortfalls in wind or solar, that you have to continually generate enough nuclear energy to replace all your wind and solar energy, making it entirely pointless. The Planet of the Humans documentary suggests that's the case, but they're also myopic, focused on specific cases instead of looking at the big picture.

The environmental costs of a specific windmill or coal plant are irrelevant, because they don't exist in isolation. It's about the total cost over the whole grid, when we replace one type of energy with the other. And I've never seen a good, authoritative, and detailed breakdown.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 26, 2020, 11:39:05 am
More climate change stuff: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/scientist-suggests-eating-human-meat-to-tackle-climate-change-a4230561.html

How can anyone possibly support this nonsense?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on October 26, 2020, 11:51:09 am
More climate change stuff: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/scientist-suggests-eating-human-meat-to-tackle-climate-change-a4230561.html

How can anyone possibly support this nonsense?

I remember that article from last year, IIRC the presenter was laughed out of the conference.

I support the spin-off of that idea, though. Using human corpses as compost. Sounds weird, but solves a lot of space limitation and moving organics problems that affect space colonization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/a-project-to-turn-corpses-into-compost.html

https://www.ecowatch.com/washington-human-body-composting-2637805371.html?rebelltitem=3#rebelltitem3
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on October 26, 2020, 01:31:45 pm
A bunch of stuff on energy production...

1) Regarding nuclear power - there is a popular perception that nuclear power is dangerous, which drives the not-in-my-backyard-ism. But that's hugely incorrect by the science. The problem is that people don't blink twice at breathing in toxins from tailpipes and smokestacks. They accept that there are "bad air days" in cities where they stay indoors, and in general that there are unhealthy toxins and carcinogens all around them. Just look at all the warning labels on common items.

But if anything is labelled as "radioactive" - even at non-harmful levels - then people are conditioned to panic by ongoing cultural portrayals that ignore the science, like HBO's Chernobyl mini-series. In truth, the track record of nuclear power is that it is many orders of magnitude safer than any fossil fuel.

2) Regarding solar and wind toxic waste --  Wind power creates almost no toxic waste. Solar creates a significant amount of toxic waste -- more than nuclear, but no more than many other industries. And it's solid or liquid waste that can be safely disposed of without going into the environment. It's not even close to the amount of toxins that are dumped into the air and wider environment by coal power.

3) Wind and solar are subject to variation depending on the local conditions. Under good conditions, like in Denmark, wind power is a huge boon. But not every region has high prevailing winds. In Germany, wind power is much more mixed. Pat is correct that they can both be unreliable depending on the weather conditions. In most places they aren't a good choice for primary energy, but they are an excellent supplement. For example, in desert-like areas where electricity use rises in the day to power air conditioning, then solar power nicely offsets the changing usage.


Why not just shoot it into the Sun? 100% serious here...
Requires too much delta V for a rocket or even a stream of rockets to de-orbit all nuclear waste into the sun. If you have the capability to do that, then you can build solar power satellites and solve most of the world's energy problem with those.

There are alternatives instead of burial like the new designs of small Thorium based fission reactors or breeder reactors. Main problem is the burdensome regulations on anything nuclear related.

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/08/10/the_nuclear_regulatory_commission_working_itself_out_of_a_job_110241.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/

http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/08/whats-more-radioactive-than-nuclear.html

Thorium and breeder reactors could be even better, but the problem of nuclear waste is overwhelmingly an irrational one. Nuclear waste is no more dangerous than tons of other toxic waste, and is much more carefully disposed of in current practice.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 26, 2020, 03:32:59 pm
But if anything is labelled as "radioactive" - even at non-harmful levels - then people are conditioned to panic by ongoing cultural portrayals that ignore the science, like HBO's Chernobyl mini-series. In truth, the track record of nuclear power is that it is many orders of magnitude safer than any fossil fuel.

Chernobyl isn't even really a fair evaluation of the pros and cons of nuclear power, considering the nature of the accident. An inherently flawed reactor design, lack of containment vessel for the reactor, inexperienced workers... it's like evaluating amateur musicians based on the performance of William Hung.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on October 26, 2020, 04:24:53 pm
Chernobyl isn't even really a fair evaluation of the pros and cons of nuclear power, considering the nature of the accident. An inherently flawed reactor design, lack of containment vessel for the reactor, inexperienced workers... it's like evaluating amateur musicians based on the performance of William Hung.

Didn't that dude make millions of dollars?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on October 26, 2020, 06:11:51 pm

But if anything is labelled as "radioactive" - even at non-harmful levels - then people are conditioned to panic by ongoing cultural portrayals that ignore the science, like HBO's Chernobyl mini-series. In truth, the track record of nuclear power is that it is many orders of magnitude safer than any fossil fuel.


I think you just used “conditioned” correctly. It’s been a while since I last saw that (after years of “we are conditioned to think men are stronger than women”)

By the way I once saw a razor hone that proudly proclaimed to be radioactive. No idea how that would help keep your razor sharp, but apparently decades before Chernobyl people used to think that “radioactive” was a sure win even if it made no sense :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on October 27, 2020, 12:42:37 am
I've seen a few critiques about the waste generated by "green" power, like solar and wind. I'm wondering-

1. How much land has to be covered by solar panels to power the entire United States.
2. How much waste is generated by constructing solar panels. I hear it's not inconsequential, and very toxic.
3. How much waste is generated by broken and used up solar panels and wind turbines.

In 5-10 years, are we going to have a "crisis" generated by so-called green energy? Is it going to be a situation where we trade one environmental disaster for another?

Solar Power is very toxic if you do what the Chinese do, and pour the waste products on the ground.
It’s not very toxic, but very expensive the way we do it, because can we recycle the toxins.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 27, 2020, 08:18:48 am
Didn't that dude make millions of dollars?
*chuckles* Well played. And I dunno if he made millions of dollars, but he was canny enough to monetize his fifteen minutes into enough cash to put himself through college. So perhaps he's not the best comparison for this.

(Talk about 'upwards failure'. Fuck me, LOL)

The point still stands, though. Pebble-bed and thorium-salt reactors are not Chernobyls-in-waiting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Manic Modron on October 27, 2020, 12:15:33 pm
By the way I once saw a razor hone that proudly proclaimed to be radioactive. No idea how that would help keep your razor sharp, but apparently decades before Chernobyl people used to think that “radioactive” was a sure win even if it made no sense :)

People used to put radium in their seat cushions because they thought it was healthy.  Something about invigorating the lower extremities or improving circulation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 27, 2020, 01:44:23 pm
By the way I once saw a razor hone that proudly proclaimed to be radioactive. No idea how that would help keep your razor sharp, but apparently decades before Chernobyl people used to think that “radioactive” was a sure win even if it made no sense :)

People used to put radium in their seat cushions because they thought it was healthy.  Something about invigorating the lower extremities or improving circulation.

Or they'd drink it, giving a whole new meaning to the term 'energy drink'.

Unfortunately, there were some rather unpleasant side effects (https://www.cultofweird.com/medical/eben-byers-radithor-poisoning/).
Title: Q
Post by: jhkim on October 27, 2020, 02:09:54 pm
Or they'd drink it, giving a whole new meaning to the term 'energy drink'.

Unfortunately, there were some rather unpleasant side effects (https://www.cultofweird.com/medical/eben-byers-radithor-poisoning/).
Yes, people have always been irrational, and have bought into irrational claims. The cure-all "Radithor" was completely unscientific junk which had no backing in the scientific knowledge of the time. It was pure irrational fervor that stuff that glowed was cool and healthy.

While I don't think it's intentional, this is pretty much what I mean by "conditioning". You're not making any logical claim per se about nuclear power. But by bringing up the topic of an obscure radioactive snake-oil from 90 years ago, it has the effect of emotionally reinforcing the association of "radiation = death", which is really strong in people's minds.

Byers was fucking drinking a highly radioactive solution every day for three years! Even if it were a real medicine, he likely would have had horrible side-effects from overdosing on it. No one doubts that radiation can be deadly in sufficient quantity. But that's no different than almost anything. Too much sunshine will give you cancer, and too much oxygen will kill you. Radioactive substances can be harmful, but not moreso than tons of other toxins.
Title: Re: Q
Post by: Pat on October 27, 2020, 04:44:10 pm
While I don't think it's intentional, this is pretty much what I mean by "conditioning". You're not making any logical claim per se about nuclear power. But by bringing up the topic of an obscure radioactive snake-oil from 90 years ago, it has the effect of emotionally reinforcing the association of "radiation = death", which is really strong in people's minds.
It's not just irrational fear, the scientific understanding has also changed. During the Cold War, they overestimated the dangers from radiation -- more realistic movies like Threads tended to treat any radiation exposure as a death sentence. But in the 35 years since Chernobyl, they've learned a lot. The effects on the people in the exclusion zone are less severe than they imagined -- there's basically no evidence of an increased risk of cancer, birth defects, or other negative effects, with one exception (increase in thyroid cancer among children). This isn't to downplay the disaster -- the core is a hellish nightmare. But we're exposed to lower doses naturally, all the time.

https://xkcd.com/radiation/
Title: Re: Q
Post by: jhkim on October 27, 2020, 06:05:07 pm
While I don't think it's intentional, this is pretty much what I mean by "conditioning". You're not making any logical claim per se about nuclear power. But by bringing up the topic of an obscure radioactive snake-oil from 90 years ago, it has the effect of emotionally reinforcing the association of "radiation = death", which is really strong in people's minds.
It's not just irrational fear, the scientific understanding has also changed. During the Cold War, they overestimated the dangers from radiation -- more realistic movies like Threads tended to treat any radiation exposure as a death sentence. But in the 35 years since Chernobyl, they've learned a lot. The effects on the people in the exclusion zone are less severe than they imagined -- there's basically no evidence of an increased risk of cancer, birth defects, or other negative effects, with one exception (increase in thyroid cancer among children). This isn't to downplay the disaster -- the core is a hellish nightmare. But we're exposed to lower doses naturally, all the time.

https://xkcd.com/radiation/

I agree that the science of understanding radiation on the human body has advanced to prove that the LNT assumption is nonsense. Still, even during the 1980s, overwhelmingly the fear was still irrational. The Three Mile Island incident released so little material, it barely registered over background radiation -- yet the uproar was enormous.

The accident at Fukushima came long after Chernobyl, yet if anything, the panic was greater, with people hundreds of miles away on the American coast fearing radiation in the water.
Title: Re: Q
Post by: Pat on October 27, 2020, 06:31:48 pm
The accident at Fukushima came long after Chernobyl, yet if anything, the panic was greater, with people hundreds of miles away on the American coast fearing radiation in the water.
Well, we've become even more safety-conscious today. Some of this is legit, and the world is safer -- bike helmets for kids, even understanding allergies better. But a lot of it is just fear-mongering. Like stranger danger, fear of school shootings, and nuclear power.
Title: Re: Q
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 28, 2020, 07:56:38 am
Yes, people have always been irrational, and have bought into irrational claims. The cure-all "Radithor" was completely unscientific junk which had no backing in the scientific knowledge of the time. It was pure irrational fervor that stuff that glowed was cool and healthy.
That happens sometimes. I think Fallout had a call back to it with some of their glow-in-the-dark Nuka Cola recipes.

Quote
While I don't think it's intentional, this is pretty much what I mean by "conditioning". You're not making any logical claim per se about nuclear power. But by bringing up the topic of an obscure radioactive snake-oil from 90 years ago, it has the effect of emotionally reinforcing the association of "radiation = death", which is really strong in people's minds.
Yes, the guy who was suggesting pebble bed and thorium salt reactors less than ten posts back is making claims against nuclear power.

Quote
Byers was fucking drinking a highly radioactive solution every day for three years! Even if it were a real medicine, he likely would have had horrible side-effects from overdosing on it. No one doubts that radiation can be deadly in sufficient quantity. But that's no different than almost anything. Too much sunshine will give you cancer, and too much oxygen will kill you. Radioactive substances can be harmful, but not moreso than tons of other toxins.
Hooray, you've discovered the LD50 concept.

Now I think you owe me an apology, because you blatantly and deliberately misread wry commentary about early misuse of radioactive materials as some kind of attack on nuclear power.
Title: Re: Q
Post by: jhkim on October 28, 2020, 02:18:18 pm
While I don't think it's intentional, this is pretty much what I mean by "conditioning". You're not making any logical claim per se about nuclear power. But by bringing up the topic of an obscure radioactive snake-oil from 90 years ago, it has the effect of emotionally reinforcing the association of "radiation = death", which is really strong in people's minds.
...
Now I think you owe me an apology, because you blatantly and deliberately misread wry commentary about early misuse of radioactive materials as some kind of attack on nuclear power.
Sorry, Ghostmaker. I have highlighted in bold above how I said it was not intentional. However, I could have been clearer in saying that - and for that I do apologize.

Those of us who support nuclear power have to work to overcome the bias that most people have - including ourselves, which works by subtle conditioning rather than logical argument. I'm not claiming to be above it myself. I know that in the past when I've taught students about radiation, I've scared them rather than overcoming their fears.
Title: Re: Q
Post by: Ghostmaker on October 28, 2020, 04:35:30 pm
Sorry, Ghostmaker. I have highlighted in bold above how I said it was not intentional. However, I could have been clearer in saying that - and for that I do apologize.

Those of us who support nuclear power have to work to overcome the bias that most people have - including ourselves, which works by subtle conditioning rather than logical argument. I'm not claiming to be above it myself. I know that in the past when I've taught students about radiation, I've scared them rather than overcoming their fears.
Accepted.

It annoys me that we seem to be losing our ability to analyze and weigh risks when dealing with possible dangers. Everything nowadays has to be risk free, bubble wrapped, no sharp corners and God forbid if it has too much Yellow #5.

Title: Re: Q
Post by: HappyDaze on October 28, 2020, 06:56:33 pm
God forbid if it has too much Yellow #5.
Must be a linked to a weakness in the power rings of the vocal idiots.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on October 30, 2020, 05:06:32 pm
 Popping in to comment quickly on Nuclear power.  It is cleaner and safer than fossil fuels.  The issue, especially in the USA, is regulations are INSANE.  There have been a few incidents that DO NOT get much publicity in the USA, but the most severe (and probably 70 percent of them are at a plant on the Savannah river in Georgia) are at pretty specific places, and usually involve the accidental release of some radiation source (and usually in the big picture a whole lot less dangerous or impactful compared to incidents at coal plants).  The incident at Three mile island, was a pretty simple MASSIVE failure of the people working at the plant (A relief valve was blowing off steam for hours and hours, dont remember exactly and no idea how classified the incident report is now) not so much an inherent safety issue.

  I have a feeling there is more to the regulations against nuclear power than simple public sentiment and closer related to financial/lobby reasons and how much stock that is NOT nuclear power owned by pelosi and mcconnell for nuclear power to be so restricted (takes over 25 years to get a plant built).  I say these things as a graduate of the Naval Nuclear Power Program, and working in and on a nuclear power plant for a few years after that.  I keep in contact with a fellow who was in with me, and he is leaving nuclear power now, because the industry is being put to death by the powers that be, flat out.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: moonsweeper on October 30, 2020, 08:22:39 pm

  I have a feeling there is more to the regulations against nuclear power than simple public sentiment and closer related to financial/lobby reasons and how much stock that is NOT nuclear power owned by pelosi and mcconnell for nuclear power to be so restricted (takes over 25 years to get a plant built).  I say these things as a graduate of the Naval Nuclear Power Program, and working in and on a nuclear power plant for a few years after that.  I keep in contact with a fellow who was in with me, and he is leaving nuclear power now, because the industry is being put to death by the powers that be, flat out.

Shhh...you aren't supposed to talk about that... :-X
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mjollnir on November 03, 2020, 01:39:20 am
A couple of months ago I predicted that Trump would lose the election. I wish to reverse that prediction before election day. I now believe that Trump will actually win the election but that the Biden campaign will attempt to steal it through mail in ballot chicanery and judicial interference. I don't predict who will actually be inaugurated in January. I myself am not voting. That is all.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 03, 2020, 04:50:04 am
Requires too much delta V for a rocket

If we just increased taxes on the rich, we could easily afford more delta V!

Boom. Done. Super simple.

:D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 03, 2020, 04:59:21 am
I myself am not voting.

There's no joy in avoiding this mosh. Be the hammer of Thor and vote for Trump tomorrow. It's very fun and the rain of lolz will be extra sweet knowing you added to the victory.

[and when lame co-workers gnash their teeth and wail for the next million years, you get to do a secret happy dance underneath the table while nodding your head in sympathy]
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on November 03, 2020, 03:25:25 pm
I notice SO MUCH more mainstream buzz around secession and civil war.  I think the election, regardless of who wins, is going to accelerate that.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trinculoisdead on November 04, 2020, 12:24:29 am
Hoo boy, here we go!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 04, 2020, 01:09:37 am
Just stopping by to read the hilarity.  The only question on my mind is who I’ll be laughing at soon.  Will it be the Trump Derangement Syndrome Morons or the Trumptards?  I’m on the edge of my seat!  :o
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 04, 2020, 01:31:34 am
Just stopping by to read the hilarity.  The only question on my mind is who I’ll be laughing at soon.  Will it be the Trump Derangement Syndrome Morons or the Trumptards?  I’m on the edge of my seat!  :o

(https://i.imgur.com/6rZ8g8Rh.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 04, 2020, 02:16:45 am
2020: It just can’t get any worse.

2020 Election: Hold my beer...

There’s a real chance we could end up with 269 to 269.  The shitshow will really commence then.

EDIT:  Maine went 3-1 looks like, so if WI and MI go to Biden that means Nebraska’s 1 Electoral Vote for Biden will give him 270.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 04, 2020, 03:26:10 am
Just saw Trump’s press conference.  In the same paragraph he said they need to stop counting PA because he’s ahead and keep counting AZ because he’s behind.  Let me grab my popcorn. Someone defend that.   :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 04, 2020, 08:28:30 am
Well, that was fun. OK, not really.

As it stands right now (7:30 AM CST), there are several states still 'in play': Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona.

Arizona has been called for Biden by a couple news outlets. Nevada has Biden with a VERY slim lead and they stated they're not saying anything else till they tabulate the rest of the votes.

Wisconsin had Biden magically jump to the lead and will probably be called for him. Trump needs the other four states to win. He'll PROBABLY pick up Georgia and North Carolina, and Michigan as well, but Pennsylvania is still anyone's guess thanks to the election day fuckery (yeah, go ahead, defend barring poll workers from entering polling places).

Trump can probably eke out a win here, but don't expect the left to accept it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Bruwulf on November 04, 2020, 08:51:15 am
Well, that was fun. OK, not really.

As it stands right now (7:30 AM CST), there are several states still 'in play': Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona.

Arizona has been called for Biden by a couple news outlets. Nevada has Biden with a VERY slim lead and they stated they're not saying anything else till they tabulate the rest of the votes.

Wisconsin had Biden magically jump to the lead and will probably be called for him. Trump needs the other four states to win. He'll PROBABLY pick up Georgia and North Carolina, and Michigan as well, but Pennsylvania is still anyone's guess thanks to the election day fuckery (yeah, go ahead, defend barring poll workers from entering polling places).

Trump can probably eke out a win here, but don't expect the left to accept it.

They keep finding big blocks of pure Biden in the mines in Michigan.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Luca on November 04, 2020, 08:58:58 am
Isn't this the worst possible scenario?

I mean, regardless of what happens in the next 4 years, a 67% vote turnout means the silent majority isn't silent anymore, it went to vote and split cleanly in half. There are also several states with percentages like 51/49 or 52/48, so it is not even an easily defined geographical split.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Bruwulf on November 04, 2020, 09:13:09 am
And, yup, Michigan went blue. Suddenly.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 09:27:25 am
Isn't it amazing how 138k votes magically appeared in Michigan, all for Biden? Guess their printer broke last night and they had to get a new shipment in from Beijing.

Our Chinese overlords can't have us plebs deciding we don't want communism...anyone who thinks Biden really got around half the popular vote is a fucking moron.

EDIT: Oh and NOW they call Michigan for Biden, when Trump was up substantially. The fix is in...goodbye USA, was nice knowing you. Anyone have any reasonable idea when Civil War II starts?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 04, 2020, 09:42:03 am
I voted for Biden, please don't destroy my property. I have a Biden sign right there!  :-

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 04, 2020, 09:51:46 am
Possibly time for national separation. The Democrats are going to fraud the hell out of the swing states. Every time late results come in, it's in the Democrats' favor. It's magical.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 04, 2020, 10:07:22 am
Isn't it amazing how 138k votes magically appeared in Michigan, all for Biden? Guess their printer broke last night and they had to get a new shipment in from Beijing.

Our Chinese overlords can't have us plebs deciding we don't want communism...anyone who thinks Biden really got around half the popular vote is a fucking moron.

EDIT: Oh and NOW they call Michigan for Biden, when Trump was up substantially. The fix is in...goodbye USA, was nice knowing you. Anyone have any reasonable idea when Civil War II starts?

No one’s going to war over a nailbiter election determined by absentee ballots.  There’s no rallying cry, no proof of Casus Belli.  Everyone will hope the riots are over and go back to Netflix.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 04, 2020, 10:23:43 am

No one’s going to war over a nailbiter election determined by absentee ballots.  There’s no rallying cry, no proof of Casus Belli.  Everyone will hope the riots are over and go back to Netflix.
Will the war be when President Biden or Harris Exec Order our gun rights away?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 10:33:20 am
No one’s going to war over a nailbiter election determined by absentee ballots.  There’s no rallying cry, no proof of Casus Belli.  Everyone will hope the riots are over and go back to Netflix.

That's like, your opinion, man. You do you, I'm not kneeling down to fucking communists.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 04, 2020, 10:33:30 am

No one’s going to war over a nailbiter election determined by absentee ballots.  There’s no rallying cry, no proof of Casus Belli.  Everyone will hope the riots are over and go back to Netflix.
Will the war be when President Biden or Harris Exec Order our gun rights away?
Probably. Especially if (a) the EO immediately gets blitzed with a lawsuit, sending it to SCOTUS (whoops!), or (b) red states just smile and say 'Nah, suck our dicks'.

The Michigan thing is so insultingly blatant, I'm surprised the Dems went ahead with it. Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 10:38:40 am
Probably. Especially if (a) the EO immediately gets blitzed with a lawsuit, sending it to SCOTUS (whoops!), or (b) red states just smile and say 'Nah, suck our dicks'.

The Michigan thing is so insultingly blatant, I'm surprised the Dems went ahead with it. Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.

No, that's nothing more than a conspiracy theory! It is totally true that 100% of the "mail in ballots" went to Biden. Also, don't Democrats get to vote twice? That would explain the Wisconsin thing. Gosh!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on November 04, 2020, 10:50:24 am
This shitshow is so embarrassing for America.  Tech leader of the world yet they can't get their act together to properly track and count votes.  Even fucking Canuckistan has figured this out.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 11:04:59 am
This shitshow is so embarrassing for America.  Tech leader of the world yet they can't get their act together to properly track and count votes.  Even fucking Canuckistan has figured this out.

The Chinese-supplied voting machines broke down. Also, they had to take a break because the truck with fake ballots broke down before it made its delivery.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 11:35:06 am
I am so sicken and disgusted with the ballots.  They are fucking cheating.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on November 04, 2020, 12:09:05 pm
I am so sicken and disgusted with the ballots.  They are fucking cheating.

Undeniably so. It is obvious to everyone. It should be equally obvious that this cheating will not stand, and will not dictate the election outcome. What is not obvious is the sequence of events that will deal with this cheating. For that, we will have to literally "wait and see".
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Machaeus on November 04, 2020, 12:17:14 pm
I am so sicken and disgusted with the ballots.  They are fucking cheating.

Yup.  As I told a guy on Discord, "It just pisses me off that they're being so goddamn blatant about the cheat.  They don't care that we're catching them in the act, because they're so powerful."
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 04, 2020, 12:26:27 pm
What happened on 9/11/2001 started with the Y2K Election. Now, Agenda 21 starts with this 2020 election. It ENDS HERE, no matter which way the winds blow. It's officially over for us all!

On a side note, I heard from a source that Biden will be declaring victory between 1700 to 1740 today. Will be interesting to see the reactions from the media, protesters, and the politicos. I wonder if they will be talking about their "PLAYBOOK" or not, hm?

Well, it was nice getting to know everyone!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Razor 007 on November 04, 2020, 12:36:24 pm
America, the Divided.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 04, 2020, 12:53:14 pm
What’s the argument for cheating?  I haven’t seen any pundits claim that. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 04, 2020, 12:55:21 pm
Both parties have had recent opportunity to pass through meaningful election reform with undivided control.

If the Democrats thought that Republicans were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Obama's first two years.

If the Republicans thought that Democrats were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Trump's first two years and/or launched investigations to prove the fraudulent votes in 2016.


Instead, it seems that the existing system is roughly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, and neither are pushing for any major reforms - at most minor tweaks. Rather than constantly bitching only about the other side, we should fix the system.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 04, 2020, 01:12:48 pm
What’s the argument for cheating?  I haven’t seen any pundits claim that.
Supposedly, the updated votes in WI and MI were 100% in Biden's favor. Not a single Trump vote. Trump went from being comfortably ahead to behind as around 120k votes hit both totals.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Armchair Gamer on November 04, 2020, 01:15:44 pm
The Michigan surge has been withdrawn and explained as a 'typo.'
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 04, 2020, 01:21:27 pm
Both parties have had recent opportunity to pass through meaningful election reform with undivided control.

If the Democrats thought that Republicans were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Obama's first two years.

If the Republicans thought that Democrats were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Trump's first two years and/or launched investigations to prove the fraudulent votes in 2016.


Instead, it seems that the existing system is roughly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, and neither are pushing for any major reforms - at most minor tweaks. Rather than constantly bitching only about the other side, we should fix the system.
All Congress wants to do these days is bitch and spend money.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 04, 2020, 01:44:06 pm
The Michigan surge has been withdrawn and explained as a 'typo.'
Linkage? I believe you, but I can't find anything on it and it still shows Biden 50k ahead of Trump.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Armchair Gamer on November 04, 2020, 02:07:16 pm
The Michigan surge has been withdrawn and explained as a 'typo.'
Linkage? I believe you, but I can't find anything on it and it still shows Biden 50k ahead of Trump.

  Most of my news has been from Twitter, alas, so I may be passing on bad intel.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on November 04, 2020, 02:09:14 pm
The Michigan surge has been withdrawn and explained as a 'typo.'
It's an odd sort of "typo".  If not it's certainly a statistical improbability...
(https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/michigan-steal--600x379.jpg)

I can't explain this.
(https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/Wisconsin-Data-Dump-11-4-morning-526x600.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 04, 2020, 02:30:35 pm
Both parties have had recent opportunity to pass through meaningful election reform with undivided control.

If the Democrats thought that Republicans were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Obama's first two years.

If the Republicans thought that Democrats were hugely cheating, they could have passed election reform legislation during Trump's first two years and/or launched investigations to prove the fraudulent votes in 2016.


Instead, it seems that the existing system is roughly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, and neither are pushing for any major reforms - at most minor tweaks. Rather than constantly bitching only about the other side, we should fix the system.

That would require that Democrats recognized the danger 10 to 12 years ago, before the wave of Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 election. It is a mystery why the all-Republican government of 2017-2018 did not fix the problems (like shortages in the national stockpile for pandemics) the Trump administration has blamed Obama for.

But elections are run by states, not the federal government; Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania asked for changes to the vote counting to avoid the current issues by counting mailed ballots earlier, and the unrepresentative Republican legislatures refused to do so. If the mailed ballots that are counted last are mostly for Biden, it's because Trump discouraged his voters from using mailed ballots (at least in those states; Florida it was OK, for some unexplained reason).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Manic Modron on November 04, 2020, 02:42:49 pm
The electors don't turn in their votes until December 14th.  Plenty of time to recount, investigate, verify, double check, and possibly more.

Take time, do things right, ensure accuracy.  There has never been a need to rush for a result before dawn.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Cloyer Bulse on November 04, 2020, 02:47:14 pm
I am so sicken and disgusted with the ballots.  They are fucking cheating.

Undeniably so. It is obvious to everyone. It should be equally obvious that this cheating will not stand, and will not dictate the election outcome. What is not obvious is the sequence of events that will deal with this cheating. For that, we will have to literally "wait and see".

The most pervasive voter fraud I've every seen, and they're doing it openly. First and last time I ever vote. This is why I don't believe that liberal democracy can work.

The sense that I get is that the republic is dead since the system has been so badly besmirched and turned into a total mockery. Voting no longer matters one way or the other, it's just a matter of who is strong enough to take control.

The idea of Americans living as slaves to foreign chinese filth disgusts me.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 02:54:54 pm
Within 15 to 20 minutes Louder with Crowder will show videos of Michigan election fraud and have a couple of witnesses.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on November 04, 2020, 03:12:50 pm
What’s the argument for cheating?  I haven’t seen any pundits claim that.
Supposedly, the updated votes in WI and MI were 100% in Biden's favor. Not a single Trump vote. Trump went from being comfortably ahead to behind as around 120k votes hit both totals.
  You fix a completely rotted out structure by DESTROYING it and then rebuilding.  I do not know if I have the stomach for that, and I have serious doubts you do.  I think instead we will just see a constant erosion of empire.  Though I agree with not bitching about it.  I can move, and I think I will just lay the tracks to get that train rolling and let all the folks who want to stay here and ride the titanic to the bottom do it if they choose.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 03:40:20 pm
Did anyone seen the videos in the Louder with Crowder stream other than me?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FelixGamingX1 on November 04, 2020, 03:51:51 pm
What’s the argument for cheating?  I haven’t seen any pundits claim that.
Supposedly, the updated votes in WI and MI were 100% in Biden's favor. Not a single Trump vote. Trump went from being comfortably ahead to behind as around 120k votes hit both totals.

It's super sketchy!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 04, 2020, 04:35:47 pm
Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.

Debunked by Polifact and Snopes. Someone was comparing 2020 vote totals to 2018 registration; the total registered before the 2020 election was higher than the votes, and Wisconsin allows registration at the polling place.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/no-wisconsin-doesnt-have-more-ballots-cast-registe/
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/wisconsin-more-votes-than-voters/

I couldn't figure out what the Louder with Crowder claim was; something about votes being carried in in coolers? Not sure how they concluded that the coolers contained votes... How dare election workers bring their own food during a pandemic, I guess. I expect it is up to the party observers of the counting to look for bad stuff, in accordance with Michigan law, rather than randos with video cameras lurking by the doors and windows.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Larsdangly on November 04, 2020, 04:46:50 pm
You guys should save some of this stuff; you'll want to have plenty of it ready if, as seems likely now, the alt-right tears really start to flow in another day or so.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 04, 2020, 04:47:36 pm
ya'all sounding like tangency with all the handwringing and bullshit. it aint over till its over
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 04, 2020, 04:57:56 pm
Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.

Debunked by Polifact and Snopes.

I dunno about Politifact, but I wouldn't trust Snopes if they said water was wet.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 04, 2020, 05:01:26 pm
Looks like Democratic Presidency and VP (by a nose), Republican Senate (one member shift plus new VP), Democratic House (though Democrats lost some seats and Republicans gained some seats).
That's a very mixed finish. It means one of the these two things can happen in terms of passing actual meaningful legislation going forward for the next couple years: 1) compromise, or 2) stalemate.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 05:02:31 pm
Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.

Debunked by Polifact and Snopes. Someone was comparing 2020 vote totals to 2018 registration; the total registered before the 2020 election was higher than the votes, and Wisconsin allows registration at the polling place.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/no-wisconsin-doesnt-have-more-ballots-cast-registe/
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/wisconsin-more-votes-than-voters/

I couldn't figure out what the Louder with Crowder claim was; something about votes being carried in in coolers? Not sure how they concluded that the coolers contained votes... How dare election workers bring their own food during a pandemic, I guess. I expect it is up to the party observers of the counting to look for bad stuff, in accordance with Michigan law, rather than randos with video cameras lurking by the doors and windows.

Even using the "reported" numbers, that's still like a 90% turnout...which is fucking ludicrous if you know anything about elections.

Looks like Democratic Presidency and VP (by a nose), Republican Senate (one member shift plus new VP), Democratic House (though Democrats lost some seats and Republicans gained some seats).
That's a very mixed finish. It means one of the these two things can happen in terms of passing actual meaningful legislation going forward for the next couple years: 1) compromise, or 2) stalemate.

Nahh, Trump will win, it's just gonna take a long time...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 04, 2020, 05:15:07 pm
Nahh, Trump will win, it's just gonna take a long time...

Your inability to process reality notwithstanding, my statement stands.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 05:18:35 pm
Your inability to process reality notwithstanding, my statement stands.

Reality: Lots of litigation, voter fraud uncovered, Trump wins
Not reality: fucktards on a roleplaying game messageboard professing insider knowledge of politics based on crap they saw on Reddit
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 04, 2020, 05:21:37 pm
Reality: Lots of litigation, voter fraud uncovered, Trump wins
Not reality: fucktards on a roleplaying game messageboard professing insider knowledge of politics based on crap they saw on Reddit

You are in denial. It's Ok. You will get through the stages of grief eventually. We're here for you.

I don't read reddit, and I have a degree in political science, for what that is worth. Which is nothing because you're not here for a conversation. You're here to try and resist moving on from your stage of grief. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 04, 2020, 05:22:16 pm
You are in denial. It's Ok. You will get through the stages of grief eventually. We're here for you.

I don't read reddit, and I have a degree in political science, for what that is worth. Which is nothing because you're not here for a conversation. You're here to try and resist moving on from your stage of grief.

Denial about what? MASSIVE voter fraud? STFU, retard. This is just 100% blatant fraud and anyone who pulls their head out of their ass could easily see it. But I guess CCP shills like yourself are reveling in Biden fucking the USA over even more, so whatever.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 04, 2020, 05:25:03 pm
Denial about what? MASSIVE voter fraud? STFU, retard.

How do you envision this fraud going down?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 04, 2020, 05:34:33 pm
Denial about what? MASSIVE voter fraud? STFU, retard.

How do you envision this fraud going down?

(https://www.dailypnut.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/putin.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 04, 2020, 05:43:31 pm
Your inability to process reality notwithstanding, my statement stands.

Reality: Lots of litigation, voter fraud uncovered, Trump wins
Not reality: fucktards on a roleplaying game messageboard professing insider knowledge of politics based on crap they saw on Reddit
So we should listen to you, one of the fucktards, when you tell us that what the fucktards say is not reality?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 04, 2020, 06:25:01 pm
Denial about what? MASSIVE voter fraud? STFU, retard.

How do you envision this fraud going down?
No doubt you don't believe any of it but why did the swing states "stop counting" in the middle of the night? And magically after that, in the wee hours and beyond, every Trump lead evaporated. As Stalin said, it's who counts the ballots.

Why has Trump led Georgia and NC for all this time with 99% in and the MSM is not calling it? Why aren't they calling Alaska for Trump?

quoting another forum I use:
Wisconsin voter turnout by year:

2000 - 67.01%
2004 - 73.24%
2008 - 69.20%
2012 - 70.14%
2016 - 67.34%
2020 - 89.25%

yeah, right - totally believable!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 04, 2020, 06:32:48 pm
The most pervasive voter fraud I've every seen, and they're doing it openly. First and last time I ever vote. This is why I don't believe that liberal democracy can work.

The sense that I get is that the republic is dead since the system has been so badly besmirched and turned into a total mockery. Voting no longer matters one way or the other, it's just a matter of who is strong enough to take control.

I have voted for 25 years and I'm done, unless the courts force them to look real carefully at the swing state shenanigans.
It really is people voting themselves money until the whole thing goes belly up.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 04, 2020, 06:34:54 pm
This is the hill you need to climb right now, as this is where it's currently heading:

Georgia (Electoral Votes: 16): Toss-Up to slightly leans Biden
Pennsylvania (20): Leans Biden
Arizona (11): Likely Biden
Nevada (6): Likely Biden
Wisconsin (10): Apparent Winner Biden
Michigan (16): Apparent Winner Biden

You'd need to prove fraud in not just one or two locations, but MANY locations in MANY states. And it would have to be enough fraud to flip the vote, not just a few hundred.

The reason votes moved Biden overnight is because the votes that remained outstanding to be counted were in mostly blue urban areas because that's where the population is the most dense. Which, if you had been paying attention last night, you'd have known before you went to bed. Because THEY ALL TOLD US THAT'S WHERE THE REMAINING VOTES TO BE COUNTED WERE LOCATED.

You're in denial. Trump lost.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 04, 2020, 06:48:33 pm
I’m no partisan.  Election fraud is of course possible but needs to be proven.  So far it looks like Trump is finished.  I was really annoyed when the SJW crowd denied a fair election in 2016.  It looks like the Trump crowd is poised to do the same now.  Very ironic.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 04, 2020, 06:49:35 pm
Debunked by Polifact and Snopes. Someone was comparing 2020 vote totals to 2018 registration; the total registered before the 2020 election was higher than the votes, and Wisconsin allows registration at the polling place.
Even using the "reported" numbers, that's still like a 90% turnout...which is fucking ludicrous if you know anything about elections.

Brad, I think you may be confusing turnout among *eligible* voters and turnout among *registered* voters. For example, in 2016, there were 157 million registered voters and 137 million votes. That's 87%. An individual swing state with 90% is not at all ludicrous.

The more commonly reported number is turnout among *eligible* voters. For example, nationally there were 231 million eligible voters in 2016, which is a turnout of 59%. A turnout of 90% among *eligible* voters would be suspicious, I agree. But that's not the case here.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 07:03:18 pm
This is going to the Supreme Court.  If you watched the Louder with Crowder Election stream which I told you guys to watch you would had seen voter fraud in Detroit after closing time.  With video evidence and eye witness report.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 04, 2020, 07:35:40 pm
This is going to the Supreme Court.  If you watched the Louder with Crowder Election stream which I told you guys to watch you would had seen voter fraud in Detroit after closing time.  With video evidence and eye witness report.
You didn't post a link. I watched a bit of this video that I found by search -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivT2z5UgHxo

I don't see anything on video that indicates voter fraud. For example, in the first clip, I see a guy with a wagon going into a building. Is it possible that he has secret fraudulent ballots inside the wagon and that he got them into the voting counting center without anyone checking him? It's possible, but the video isn't proof of that. Another clip shows a bunch of guys with cameras and suitcases also near the polling place. Again - there's no indication that they (a) got into the ballot-counting area without being checked, and (b) that the suitcases contained fraudulent ballots as opposed to batteries, cables, and lights for the cameras.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 04, 2020, 07:43:44 pm
This is going to the Supreme Court.  If you watched the Louder with Crowder Election stream which I told you guys to watch you would had seen voter fraud in Detroit after closing time.  With video evidence and eye witness report.

If you looked carefully you will see it might not matter what happens with Detroit. If it turns out Biden squeaks out a win in Georgia, and it's SLIGHTLY trending that way right now, then he can lose Michigan and still win.

Y'all are in denial. You cannot "fix this problem" with one state anymore.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 07:55:27 pm
They finally made a CrowderBit video.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on November 04, 2020, 09:31:25 pm
Greetings!

Well, if Biden and Harris manage to defraud this election, they will usher in Marxism and our Republic will be gone. Four years from now, you won't recognize this country as America any longer, if not a whole fuck sooner than that. Are you comfortable with a Marxist takeover of America?

Open your fucking eyes and swallow down the shit policies that fucking Bernie, Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Buttiegieg, AOC and the "squad" have all said they have planned for America, and ask yourself if that is a free America. Ask yourself if that is a vision of America that can somehow ever be reversed if they get into power. How is all of that BS not Marxist tyranny?

Amazing how many mindless fucking slugs there are that love Marxism. A big Marxist ass-fucking for America. Yay! More globalism, Marxism, racism, reparations, racial and sexual Olympic hierarchies, speech codes, gun confiscation, higher taxes, and brainwashing at an unprecedented scale--and fuck you harder if you are a white person. How nice. This is what is coming for America, and all of these mindless scum are drooling in joy and can hardly wait. How fucking pathetic and sad watching a glorious nation such as America choke, whither, and die. And all unleashed by traitors in our midst.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 09:43:29 pm
Tim Pool stated that a large amount of Biden supporters are new people who know nothing of Biden.  Like 0 political experience.  They are going to get a shock once Biden gets war going to make elites happy.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 09:54:27 pm
The fun never ends...

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 04, 2020, 10:04:40 pm
Greetings!

Well, if Biden and Harris manage to defraud this election, they will usher in Marxism and our Republic will be gone. Four years from now, you won't recognize this country as America any longer, if not a whole fuck sooner than that. Are you comfortable with a Marxist takeover of America?

Open your fucking eyes and swallow down the shit policies that fucking Bernie, Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Buttiegieg, AOC and the "squad" have all said they have planned for America, and ask yourself if that is a free America. Ask yourself if that is a vision of America that can somehow ever be reversed if they get into power. How is all of that BS not Marxist tyranny?

Amazing how many mindless fucking slugs there are that love Marxism. A big Marxist ass-fucking for America. Yay! More globalism, Marxism, racism, reparations, racial and sexual Olympic hierarchies, speech codes, gun confiscation, higher taxes, and brainwashing at an unprecedented scale--and fuck you harder if you are a white person. How nice. This is what is coming for America, and all of these mindless scum are drooling in joy and can hardly wait. How fucking pathetic and sad watching a glorious nation such as America choke, whither, and die. And all unleashed by traitors in our midst.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
(http://www.memecreator.com/static/images/memes/337149.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 04, 2020, 10:50:21 pm
(http://www.memecreator.com/static/images/memes/337149.jpg)

"SHARK, Stand back and stand by"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 04, 2020, 11:11:51 pm
A update.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 05, 2020, 12:08:30 am
Also, it seems there are more votes cast in Wisconsin than registered voters.

Debunked by Polifact and Snopes. Someone was comparing 2020 vote totals to 2018 registration; the total registered before the 2020 election was higher than the votes, and Wisconsin allows registration at the polling place.

Even using the "reported" numbers, that's still like a 90% turnout...which is fucking ludicrous if you know anything about elections.

Checking at https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics
"Wisconsin's 2020 Estimated Voting Age Population is 4,536,293."
The vote totals I've seen latest had 1,630,542 Biden vs 1,610,007 Trump, plus 48,872 for third party candidates; not official but the final certified count is unlikely to vary a lot (and as Scott Walker noted on Twitter, statewide recounts in WI don't budge votes more than a few hundred votes). So, 3,289,421 votes out of an estimated voting age population of 4,523,293, or 72.51%. There's a spreadsheet at that website showing the comparable calculations for previous elections - presidential elections in 1960 and 2004 were both higher percentages.

Quote
Nahh, Trump will win, it's just gonna take a long time...

2024?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 05, 2020, 12:14:57 am
No doubt you don't believe any of it but why did the swing states "stop counting" in the middle of the night? And magically after that, in the wee hours and beyond, every Trump lead evaporated. As Stalin said, it's who counts the ballots.

Did they stop counting, or did some step in the reporting process stop? If they did stop, probably it's because that's their established legal procedure for counting votes. You'd be complaining if they kept counting after the observers from your party all fell asleep. Trump leads evaporated in WI and MI, and are heading there in PA, because their Republican legislatures did not allow for any counting of mailed ballots earlier, Trump discouraged his voters from voting early by mail, and so the final ballots to be counted favored Biden by a huge margin.

Quote
Why has Trump led Georgia and NC for all this time with 99% in and the MSM is not calling it?

In both cases, AP says there are enough outstanding votes - mostly mail-in ballots, which generally have favored Biden - to make it possible that Biden catches up. (CNN only says 95% in for both states; the AP Explainer says 4% in GA and 200,000 in NC.)
https://apnews.com/article/why-ap-has-not-called-north-carolina-e07a1022a90ef31ca7c75d32eea1849b
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-georgia-race-call-f85794f3a45996afe6a5d750cb4a6cfb

Quote
Why aren't they calling Alaska for Trump?

Anchorage Daily News says "To ensure a voter hasn’t voted twice and is registered properly, absentee ballots won’t be counted until at least next week." But I'm also a little mystified as to how much uncertainty there could be, and there doesn't seem to be an Explainer from AP.
https://www.adn.com/politics/2020/11/03/alaskans-who-didnt-vote-early-go-to-the-polls-in-a-historic-pandemic-election/

Quote
quoting another forum I use:
Wisconsin voter turnout by year:

2000 - 67.01%
2004 - 73.24%
2008 - 69.20%
2012 - 70.14%
2016 - 67.34%
2020 - 89.25%

yeah, right - totally believable!

Wrong denominator for 2020; the other percentages match the spreadsheet
"Voter Turnout Partisan-NonPartisan Through August 2020.xlsx"
at https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics

The votes aren't in the spreadsheet for November 2020, but the correct denominator is on the webpage and the spreadsheet:
"Wisconsin's 2020 Estimated Voting Age Population is 4,536,293."
That gives 72.51% for 3,289,421 votes, not even as good as 2004.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 05, 2020, 12:17:28 am
I'm just going to leave this here: https://twitter.com/LadyQanuck/status/1324199972972187655

If true, then all legal ballots have been marked and can be verified. May turn out to be interesting after all....

"Think Logically If the playbook was known, why not just stop it from happening? Sometimes you must show the people, people need to understand, the great awakening has never ended. Why did Trump mention 4:00am at his 2:00am press conference? Trap Set"
-A quote from someone I read once...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 12:56:28 am
It's 2000 again, but with multiple lawsuits involving multiple states and its all going to be decided by courts which is the worst way to win an election, but THIS was always what was going to happen thanks to the mega-bullshit of mail in voting and allowing ballot harvesting to exist.

Either way, we're heading toward the shattering of the union.

One country, two opposing cultures doesn't work and will only result in social breakdown until either separation or one side of the culture war is crushed and/or submits.

There was never any energy on the left FOR Biden, only energy AGAINST Trump and that's obviously translates into energy AGAINST Trump's supporters...who are heavily armed, but perhaps too cowardly and weak (oops, I meant "pragmatic and sensible") to actually stand and fight.

We will see.

PS: the laptop still exists.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 01:05:42 am
(http://www.memecreator.com/static/images/memes/337149.jpg)

We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven,
that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and NOT TO YIELD.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 05, 2020, 01:10:04 am
Republicans just need a guy with more self control and less ego.  If Trump ends up losing AZ a big deciding factor is he insulted McCain.  McCain was a POW which makes him a hero in my eyes.  Not smart of Trump at all. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 05, 2020, 04:00:33 am
This won’t be finalized for a while.

But if Republicans can’t bring themselves to primary the otherwise-silent GOP Reps and senators telling trump to not make a fuss, 4 more years of trump mean nothing in the long run.

Hint: it’s not the Dems who are the true obstacle here to what you want to have happen in politics.  Example, in the past 4 years I see complaints that trump can’t get his appointees through the senate, yet the same red senators manipulating parliamentary procedures to never allow Trump the opportunity to make recess appointments keep getting re-elected.  It’s unheard of to prevent a president from your own party from making recess appointments

The call is coming from inside the house

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 08:09:25 am
Republicans just need a guy with more self control and less ego.  If Trump ends up losing AZ a big deciding factor is he insulted McCain.  McCain was a POW which makes him a hero in my eyes.  Not smart of Trump at all.
McCain also spent his entire congressional career chasing the media so they'd suck his dick (figuratively speaking). And as a result, he was utterly undependable when it came to any kind of non-statist -- not even conservative, but just not fucking statist -- principles or votes.

I could respect him for his time in the military and his endurance of captivity. But he was utterly useless as a congresscritter. There's a reason I referred to him as 'the least repulsive Democrat'.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 05, 2020, 08:11:10 am
They are trying to tell us Michigan increased voting from 4.8 million in 2016 to 5.5 million in 2020. I expect many of these votes are fraudulent. I just don't see that kind of vast increase in participation.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 08:16:53 am
They are trying to tell us Michigan increased voting from 4.8 million in 2016 to 5.5 million in 2020. I expect many of these votes are fraudulent. I just don't see that kind of vast increase in participation.
What's hilarious is that the prize, for the Dems, is almost worthless. GOP retains control of the Senate, which means they're dealing with Cocaine Mitch. And the Dems have already set the precedent for challenging presidential EOs through lawfare.

My personal favorite hallucination is still the blathering about charging Trump for 'war crimes'. I guess he didn't start enough wars or sustain them...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 05, 2020, 08:28:45 am
Here's another one, more votes than voters in 7 Milwaukee wards. Do I believe stories like this coming out or do I believe the party that tells me there is no voter fraud ever and voter ID is white supremacy?

https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 08:35:09 am
Even if Biden wins, ya'all ain't doing shit but belly ache online. You're ALL MOUTH and nothing else, just like the emotionally stunted Tangency crowd. 

Trump still has 4 states he will likely win, including PA. There will be a recount in WI. The Donald even picked up one electoral vote in Maine. You all need to calm the fuck down.

Disgusting. If I was Trump, I'd be ashamed to count on any of you panicky bunch of hens.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 08:48:18 am
Even if Biden wins, ya'all ain't doing shit but belly ache online. You're ALL MOUTH and nothing else, just like the emotionally stunted Tangency crowd. 

Trump still has 4 states he will likely win, including PA. There will be a recount in WI. The Donald even picked up one electoral vote in Maine. You all need to calm the fuck down.

Disgusting. If I was Trump, I'd be ashamed to count on any of you panicky bunch of hens.
One of the reasons people are 'panicky' is the sheer amount of thrice-damned bullshit masquerading as news. Here, have a taste: news agencies are claiming John James (GOP) lost against Dem Gary Peters, and that Biden took Michigan.

And then you look at this: https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

I'm sorry, does that look like a Biden win to you? Or a Peters win? And before someone says 'deepfake', that's through the michigan.gov website. Go there, search 'election', select 'current election results' and go to the General Election link.

Me, I'm just moderately pissed they're being so blatantly dishonest about things. At least fucking TRY to pull the wool over my eyes.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 08:53:15 am
The government page does show Biden and Peters ahead. Are you saying that information is incorrect?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 05, 2020, 08:58:46 am
You all need to calm the fuck down.
Yeah, when all the mainstream media tells us there's no voter fraud, and yet fraud stories are popping up like spring flowers...
We know Democrat fraud rarely gets punished. It is frustrating, and toxic to the future of the US. People will continue to lose faith in all the institutions.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 09:00:09 am
The government page does show Biden and Peters ahead. Are you saying that information is incorrect?
*dies laughing at himself*

Well, that's what I get. The page just updated -- I was looking at one from 11/4/2020 at 11pm or so, and the new one does show them in the lead.

Guess the Dems were working extra hard to churn out those ballots.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 09:01:47 am
Y'all don't give any weight to stories of "racism" and other bullshit, but you're willing to believe this based on some crank with a youtube account.  ::)

You're just another side of the same coin with SJWs. It's dissappointing as hell.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 09:27:04 am
Y'all don't give any weight to stories of "racism" and other bullshit, but you're willing to believe this based on some crank with a youtube account.  ::)

You're just another side of the same coin with SJWs. It's dissappointing as hell.
Disappointing? You expected better? Here? Many of the posters here seem to get their reality straight out of heavily biased YouTube videos and don't question it. Conspiracy theories are held as truth and mainstream views are taken as being conspiracies. Don't be disappointed, learn to view it as the twisted entertainment it is once you realize nothing here is real.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on November 05, 2020, 09:42:23 am
It is of course ludicrous to think anyone would cheat in an election.  People cheat on their spouses, cheat on taxes, cheat on tests, cheat in sports.  But, luckily humans, and especially Americans, have a built in complete and utter aversion to cheating in elections.  There is really no need to even bother looking into it, since we never look too hard for it we have no evidence, and since we have no evidence, no need to look too hard.
  Racism, of course exists.  We can even to change the definition, if needed, to help find it. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 05, 2020, 09:47:02 am
Honestly I think Biden/Harris is going to win this now, even if some states are recounting. Trump got an impressive amount of votes for someone in charge during an election year of absolute disaster though. It should have been a Democrat landslide, as predicted by the polls, but that never happened.

By all means recount and check for fraud, but being part of a democracy means not going to extremes when the opposition wins. That’s what they do in places like Afghanistan and why those places are permanently unstable. If things are going the way they seem I think it’s soon time to go back to being those independent-minded Republicans, who keep an eye on those in power and tell them to mind their own business.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on November 05, 2020, 10:05:20 am
Honestly I think Biden/Harris is going to win this now, even if some states are recounting. Trump got an impressive amount of votes for someone in charge during an election year of absolute disaster though. It should have been a Democrat landslide, as predicted by the polls, but that never happened.

By all means recount and check for fraud, but being part of a democracy means not going to extremes when the opposition wins. That’s what they do in places like Afghanistan and why those places are permanently unstable. If things are going the way they seem I think it’s soon time to go back to being those independent-minded Republicans, who keep an eye on those in power and tell them to mind their own business.
  In a republic however, you impeach your political opposition as well as surveilling them and creating all sorts of juicy stories about hooker pee.  So I suspect this will get interesting.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 10:08:20 am
It is also, of course, known that Republicans are incapable of cheating as their nature is so angelic as to make that constitutionally impossible. Give me a fucking break. You're all more or less the same. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: oggsmash on November 05, 2020, 10:10:57 am
It is also, of course, known that Republicans are incapable of cheating as their nature is so angelic as to make that constitutionally impossible. Give me a fucking break. You're all more or less the same.
  I suppose you should have quoted what I said.  Or at least have read it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 05, 2020, 10:12:06 am
It is also, of course, known that Republicans are incapable of cheating as their nature is so angelic as to make that constitutionally impossible. Give me a fucking break. You're all more or less the same.

We are? Us? No!! It's them others. THEM OTHERS!!!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 05, 2020, 10:23:23 am
It is also, of course, known that Republicans are incapable of cheating as their nature is so angelic as to make that constitutionally impossible. Give me a fucking break. You're all more or less the same.
Straw man which no one said. What many have said is voter ID across the board and voting on election day for most would help with fraud. Whoever said Congress, even when controlled by Republicans, couldn't or wouldn't do anything to make fraud less likely was, of course correct.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 10:30:52 am
Why aren't there any calls to contest the states that Trump won? If people cared about the integrity of the elections in any real way, they'd be questioning everything.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 10:32:45 am
Honestly I think Biden/Harris is going to win this now, even if some states are recounting. Trump got an impressive amount of votes for someone in charge during an election year of absolute disaster though. It should have been a Democrat landslide, as predicted by the polls, but that never happened.

By all means recount and check for fraud, but being part of a democracy means not going to extremes when the opposition wins. That’s what they do in places like Afghanistan and why those places are permanently unstable. If things are going the way they seem I think it’s soon time to go back to being those independent-minded Republicans, who keep an eye on those in power and tell them to mind their own business.
Mmm. May I recommend this essay? https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=21724

As I've noted, this does not exactly cover the Dems in glory. They threw everything in against Orange Man Bad -- media, vote fuckery, impeachment, etc -- and still almost lost with their empty shell/political whore duo. Worse, they did not take the Senate, and they barely held the House. Their ability to screw with things is not near as unlimited as it was in 2008.

Go ahead, send out those executive orders. Expect to see them challenged in court, just as the Dems challenged Trump's.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 05, 2020, 10:51:27 am
If things are going the way they seem I think it’s soon time to go back to being those independent-minded Republicans, who keep an eye on those in power and tell them to mind their own business.
Gridlock where the Senate and Courts block any Biden/Harris excesses doesn't sound too bad, especially national WuFlu lockdown, mass amnesty, etc.

For things completely unrelated to the Presidency, which seem insane to me, I noticed
* Oregon legalized all drugs (isn't it gov who pays for drug addict rehabilitation)
* Florida passed $15 minimum wage which should come in a few years in steps. Do the old people on Social Security think their IHOP server is worth $15/hr? Hi2u fast food robots.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 05, 2020, 11:22:08 am
Gridlock where the Senate and Courts block any Biden/Harris excesses doesn't sound too bad, especially national WuFlu lockdown, mass amnesty, etc.

For things completely unrelated to the Presidency, which seem insane to me, I noticed
* Oregon legalized all drugs (isn't it gov who pays for drug addict rehabilitation)
* Florida passed $15 minimum wage which should come in a few years in steps. Do the old people on Social Security think their IHOP server is worth $15/hr? Hi2u fast food robots.
The ugly fact is that despite expending immense resources, and dealing considerable damage to civil liberties, we haven't exactly done well in the 'war on drugs' (the joke about drugs winning the war applies here). I share your distaste, but the current paradigm isn't working at all. That being said, I would also vote for 'no Narcan for frequent ODers'. Evolution in action, baby.

Not sure why the hell Florida passed that minimum wage law, though. Some people just want to believe in miracles, I guess.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 11:25:50 am
Not sure why the hell Florida passed that minimum wage law, though. Some people just want to believe in miracles, I guess.
One factor was all of the tourism industry employees (many of which are furloughed or outright laid off d/t COVID). Of course, the ripple effects of that move are not well considered, but then, they rarely are.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 11:26:17 am
OK by me if they vote themselves out of a job during a pandemic downturn no less. Robots are cool as hell and they don't give you no attitude. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on November 05, 2020, 11:31:21 am
1. The polls lied.

2. Trump won. The Democrats' fraud is obvious.

Bleat to the contrary all you like.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 11:32:03 am
Robots are cool as hell and they don't give you no attitude.
I've worked with some robots that definitely gave attitude.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 11:34:57 am
1. The polls lied.

2. Trump won. The Democrats' fraud is obvious.

Bleat to the contrary all you like.
As an American, my grasp of geography may be a little shaky, but I was always that the big river that runs through the middle of the USA was the Mississippi...but right now it's looking more like d'Nile. ;)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 11:35:35 am
1. The polls lied.

2. Trump won. The Democrats' fraud is obvious.

Bleat to the contrary all you like.

If you say it enough times and really wish it to become true, it'll become true. Abracadabra.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on November 05, 2020, 12:26:16 pm
I'd hope that people on both sides can agree that what's happening right now is some 3rd world bullshit.  GOP had to sue to allow poll WATCHERS into polling station in PA which the Supreme Court in PA just overturned.  This is just to allow GOP watchers to join the DNC watchers inside the polling stations.  Stuff like closing a polling station and sending Repubs home then secretly opening and counting boxes of votes that are 100% Biden (no corresponding down ballot votes!).

doesn't matter who wins this is a VERY bad look.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 12:32:16 pm
I can't wait until Kanye's people speak out about the obvious efforts to thwart his presidential run.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snark Knight on November 05, 2020, 12:33:09 pm
I'd hope that people on both sides can agree that what's happening right now is some 3rd world bullshit.  GOP had to sue to allow poll WATCHERS into polling station in PA which the Supreme Court in PA just overturned.  This is just to allow GOP watchers to join the DNC watchers inside the polling stations.  Stuff like closing a polling station and sending Repubs home then secretly opening and counting boxes of votes that are 100% Biden (no corresponding down ballot votes!).

doesn't matter who wins this is a VERY bad look.
Mainstream media won't talk about it and/or (in the 'fair and unbias' BBC's case) frame it as Trump being irrational and conspiratorial, the Usual Suspects will pitch it as "tiny handed Orange Man is just a sore loser" at best and "literally ANYTHING can and must be done to oppose a literal fascist nazi dictator getting into the White House" at worst.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 12:49:19 pm
There is actually a lot from the major news outlets if you google it.

Here is one account from a local news source: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/04/poll-challengers-converge-detroit-amid-close-election-results/6161484002/

Unless someone has a reliable account with proof that there were more Demo poll watchers than Republican watchers, I'm calling bullshit. 

If the police is helping enforce fraud, maybe you guys can join the SJW call to defund the police. *snicker*
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: DocJones on November 05, 2020, 01:07:09 pm
Disappointing? You expected better? Here? Many of the posters here seem to get their reality straight out of heavily biased YouTube videos and don't question it. Conspiracy theories are held as truth and mainstream views are taken as being conspiracies. Don't be disappointed, learn to view it as the twisted entertainment it is once you realize nothing here is real.
I strongly suspect you're working for the Chinese Communist Party.   8)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 05, 2020, 01:19:25 pm
Y'all don't give any weight to stories of "racism" and other bullshit, but you're willing to believe this based on some crank with a youtube account.  ::)

You're just another side of the same coin with SJWs. It's dissappointing as hell.
Disappointing? You expected better? Here? Many of the posters here seem to get their reality straight out of heavily biased YouTube videos and don't question it. Conspiracy theories are held as truth and mainstream views are taken as being conspiracies. Don't be disappointed, learn to view it as the twisted entertainment it is once you realize nothing here is real.

I get my reality based on my own experiences, and my own experience is that mainstream views lie about things I know, sometimes from direct personal experience (having being involved with the groups being discussed, such as GamerGate), to be false. Even back when I was active in the progressive side and supported BLM, I was one of the people who parroted the "hands up, don't shoot" line, which later was confirmed to be a lie. And back during the Iraq War, the lie was about "Weapons of Mass Destruction". So you better believe I think that the mainstream media lies all the time. Because they demonstrably do.

I don't believe that mainstream media is full of shit because alternative media youtube channels told me that the MSM lies. I watch alternative media youtube channels because I figured out the MSM lies before I started watching them.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Machaeus on November 05, 2020, 01:42:48 pm
I don't believe that mainstream media is full of shit because alternative media youtube channels told me that the MSM lies. I watch alternative media youtube channels because I figured out the MSM lies before I started watching them.

This.

Keep in mind that the Alt Media is under far stricter scrutiny, and provides far more sources (none of which are circular) than the MSM.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 01:57:27 pm
You can watch every step of this unfold, with explanations as it goes, here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

No votes "magically" appeared over night. No vote batch went "100%" for anyone.

There were three types of votes being counted: 1) mailed votes, 2) Drop-Off votes, and 3) In-Person votes. In these three, there were variations, like "early in-person vote" vs "Election day in-person vote" or even "Early drop-off vote" vs "election-day drop-off vote". Because of the nature of the campaigns, in general Democrats tended to vote early, and Republicans tended to vote on election day.

So when counting, if the batch was "early" with either drop-off or mail-in, it tended to go Biden. And if the vote was "election-day" with either drop-off or in-person, it tended to go Trump.

Then of course you have the variation on geography. Votes in Philadelphia go very strong Biden, while votes in rural areas go very strong Trump. So WHERE the votes came from in a particular batch is important to what the vote is likely to be.

So then you come to any moment in time where you think some "magical batch of mystery votes" is being counted. If the batch is both 1) from an urban location like Philadelphia, and 2) a batch of early mail-in or early drop-off votes, it's going to skew extremely hard to Biden. On the other handm if the batch is both 1) from a rural location, and 2) a batch of election-day drop-off or in-person votes, it's going to skew extremely hard for Trump.

Ther blog covers just about every batch of new counts, in all the states people are watching. Not one has been particularly remarkable in the count. They predict what it will be and generally speaking it's coming in roughly close to their prediction. Which isn't magic, this is a simple formula which is baring out over the election in all the states.

If if you were not watching as it happened, if you just got blips here and there, or partisan spins on what was happening, I can see how people would think this is all some big nefarious fraud. But it's not. It's actually quite boring, and nothing nefarious is going on other than some minor human error here and there. It's just a lot of tired poll workers counting every ballot coming in. There are MANY Republicans involved in every poll counting facility in all the states in question, even in urban counting districts. It's mandated by law that you have a minimum of one member of each party (and then usually two independents) present for any issues. They're not reporting any major issues in the count.

As for the number of people voting, it's up for both Republicans and Democrats and not just one. It's up dramatically, for both parties. Trump received the most number of votes of any Republican, ever in the history of the nation. Biden received the most number of votes of any Democrat, ever in the history of the nation. Voting, across the board, is way up. This should come as no surprise to anyone, because it's SUPER EASY TO VOTE THIS TIME. Because in many states EVERY registered voter got a mail-in ballot which could also usually be dropped off in advance of election day. That's atypical. It gives people a lot more time to get their ballot in and lot more locations to get their ballot in and fewer restrictions on the day of the week or the time of the day they drop their ballot off. This level of flexibility increases the turn-out dramatically. And it's increasing the turnout for both major parties and not just one.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 03:38:38 pm
Disappointing? You expected better? Here? Many of the posters here seem to get their reality straight out of heavily biased YouTube videos and don't question it. Conspiracy theories are held as truth and mainstream views are taken as being conspiracies. Don't be disappointed, learn to view it as the twisted entertainment it is once you realize nothing here is real.
I strongly suspect you're working for the Chinese Communist Party.   8)
If that were true, I'd like to see a paycheck from them. I recently resigned from the hellhole I was working at, and the last check comes in soon. I've got options, but if China owes me money, I want it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 05, 2020, 03:52:41 pm
Nevada is going into lawsuit.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 04:27:47 pm
Trump encouraging voter fraud:

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 05, 2020, 04:29:12 pm
Considering the Coof, increased mail in voting in places that weren't experienced in handling it, and how tight this election is, I'm not shocked it's taking multiple days to finish. Having said that...

I seriously doubt the counts would have stopped if Biden's lead were solid.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Dems were pulling some shenanigans. I don't think the Repubs are above it either, but that's where we're at right now.

Buckle up for weeks of uncertainty.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 05, 2020, 04:31:17 pm
Trump encouraging voter fraud:



Is it voter fraud if they haven't counted your ballot yet?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 05, 2020, 04:37:12 pm
Even though I do not agree with some of the posters here, it is good to see that they are still allowed to have their opinion heard.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 05, 2020, 04:41:33 pm
Is it voter fraud if they haven't counted your ballot yet?

No, but it's so easy to spin and edit video.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 05, 2020, 05:09:55 pm
THE 2020 ELECTION: FUCKERY IS AFOOT
by Larry Correia

Quote
I am more offended by how ham fisted, clumsy, and audacious the fraud to elect him is than the idea of Joe Biden being president. I think Joe Biden is a corrupt idiot, however, I think America would survive him like we’ve survived previous idiot administrations. However, what is potentially fatal for America is half the populace believing that their elections are hopelessly rigged and they’re eternally fucked. And now, however this shakes out in court, that’s exactly what half the country is going to think. 

People are pissed off, and rightfully so.

Before I became a novelist I was an accountant. In auditing you look for red flags. That’s weird bits in the data that suggest something shifty is going on. You flag those weird things so you can delve into them further. One flag doesn’t necessarily mean there’s fraud. Weird things happen. A few flags mean stupidity or dishonesty. But a giant pile of red flags means that there’s bad shit going on and people should be in jail.

Except for in politics, where apparently all you have to do to dismiss a bunch of red flag is be a democrat and mumble something about “fascist voter suppression” then you can do all sorts of blatant crime and get off.

I’ve been trying to keep up with the firehose of information about what’s going on during this clusterfuck of an election. Last night I was on Facebook talking about the crazy high, 3rd world dictatorship level voter turnout levels in the deep blue areas of these swing states was very suspicious. Somebody gas lighted me about how “I’d have to do better than that”, so this was my quick reply, listing off the questionable bullshit I could think of off the top of my head:

The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

But as for doing better…

The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned bullshit detector. This is going to the courts.

##

So now I want to delve into some of these some more. The problem is that there’s a ton of info swirling around, some good, some crap. It doesn’t help that reporters are usually dishonest or not very bright and absolute trash at presenting data. Part of our problem is Big Tech is actively stomping on stories that make their guy look bad. (while compiling these I discovered that several of the links I’d looked at yesterday had been vanished by Facebook or Twitter)

For the last four years half the country was all “Trump is illegitimate! He’s not my president! He stole the election!” so on and so forth, and that was all based upon nebulous ideas about “Russian Interference”, The Russian Interference mostly boiled down to them buying ads on Facebook, or having fake bots trolling on Twitter last time. This time the actual giant megacorporations, Facebook, Twitter, and Google themselves have actively censored stories in order to protect their candidate. So you think after this pile of suspicious election clusterfucks that makes the game look totally rigged, the other half of the country is going to accept Joe Biden as legitimate? Oh hell no.

When you are auditing you see mistakes happen all the time. Humans make errors. Except in real life, mistakes usually go in different directions. When all the mistakes go in the same direction and benefit the same parties, they probably aren’t mistakes. They’re malfeasance.

Let’s go back a bit to before election day to see why people would be suspicious that the game has been rigged.

Most of the mainstream polls were utter garbage, off by what I believe to be the largest amounts ever in all of American history. Of course, this thing that surely demoralized the right and helped the left raise funds was just an innocent sampling error rather than a purposeful sampling bias… uh huh.

Then in the weeks leading up to the election, Big Tech and the media had a concentrated censorship effort to stop what was probably the juiciest October Surprise in modern history. But them silencing major newspapers and US Senators was just a mistake in their innocent efforts to “fact check”.   

Then on election day, states like Florida that were obviously swinging hard for Trump with no possible mathematical way for Biden to come back, the news wouldn’t call for Trump. States where it was still clearly up in the air just based on even the most cursory of statistical analysis (Arizona) they called for Biden ASAP. But that was just innocent mistakes, and not an attempt to set the narrative of inevitable Biden victory by major media.

When Trump pulled ahead in the midwestern swing states by what were starting to appear to be insurmountable amounts, they suddenly threw the brakes on the counts. (my favorite part of this was when it looked like Trump was going to win, the Chinese Yaun crashed, which is pretty telling about just how shitty a candidate Joe Biden is) Okay, suddenly stopping all those counts seemed a little weird, but most of America went to bed thinking that this was a close race, with Trump in the lead in the EC.

Then we woke up in the morning, and everybody saw the 538 graphs showing a massive middle of the night spike for Joe Biden, with almost zilch in corresponding votes for Trump.

Now, one of those got walked back as “typo”. (again, funny how all these “mistakes” keep going in one direction) but the damage was already done, and all of a sudden most of America was paying a whole lot more attention to places like Wisconsin and Michigan than we usually do. That’s how flags work. And it turned out that single six figure typo was only one of many statistically improbable Biden vote dumps to come.

Now, all of my liberal acquaintances were quick to dismiss these, with some gas lighting about how it was just deep blue inner cities votes coming in, and of obviously they’re going to vote for Joe Biden… Except that is them deliberately missing the point. It isn’t that Biden won those, it is that he won them with statistically improbable amounts.

I don’t know what the current numbers are now, but as of yesterday morning the Wisconsin Midnight Mystery Dump was something like 98.4% for Joe Biden. That’s better than the bluest of blue cities manage. That’s better than Biden did in DC. I saw one 28k dump yesterday (I want to say it was 538 talking about PA) that was listed as ALL for Biden. That’s basically statistically impossible.

In a small populace, you can get 100% of the vote. However the larger the sample, the more likely there will be dissenting votes. Even in the bluest of blue areas or reddest of red areas, somebody is going to be a cranky dissident, or an old person is going to fill in the wrong circle. When you get into the hundreds or thousands yet maintain that kind of perfect ratio, basically impossible.

Plus we are supposed to believe that Joe Biden, the guy barely campaigned, who got like 12 sad looking people to his rallies, was more popular than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? This election was just that much more special? Uh huh… Except that these few battleground state blue cities vote ratios don’t match up with other blue cities around America, where it appears Trump’s support among every demographic group other than white males went UP.

Then people were quick to dismiss these statistically improbable spikes with “of course the mail in voting favors Biden, republicans vote in person.” Yes, but they don’t favor Biden with these kind of ratios anywhere else in America. The ratios are more like 60-40 or 70-30. But 97-3? Oh fuck no. So either Biden is a better campaigner to the inner cities (though he rarely left his basement) than the eloquent messianic figure of Barack Obama, or there’s something fishy going on here.

Now, as a suspicious auditor type who spent a lot of hours looking for fuckery in complex systems, my gut tells me fake ballots were getting dumped into the system to make up the difference. And oh look, here is a giant pile of red flags indicating that’s the case.

Yesterday there was a meme going around about how Wisconsin had something like 90% voter turnout, and how this was 20 points higher than usual, and it how it would also be one of the highest voter turnouts in all of American history. If Wisconsin was at 90% that beats the highest national number in all of American history by EIGHT points. And that was 1876 (which was legendarily fraudulent by the way).

Except, this is the problem with using memes to make your argument, it was only partially accurate, and the previous Wisconsin numbers were cited one way, and the current year was calculated a different way. (don’t feel bad, I fell for that one too, and as an accountant, that’s SO ANNOYING). When most people think of voter turnout, they think what percent of registered voters vote. But because Wisconsin has same day voting (a gift for fraudsters) their prior year percentages were votes compared to eligible population (that’s so goofy). But it meant the meme was comparing apples to oranges. So the leftists immediately jumped on that error to dismiss the idea that there was anything weird about how many people turned out to vote this time.

HOWEVER, that’s useless obfuscation. Because if you calculate the number the same way that most Americans do, their turn out was still like 90%, which is a rate normally reserved for dictators (that combined with the vote ratios would have made Saddam Hussein blush). I had one liberal guy point out that notoriously corrupt Seattle also gets 90%… which doesn’t exactly help his case.

Because here’s the kicker, the high turn out is the average for the state, but when you drill down on the source of these statistically improbable blue vote dumps, they’ve got districts with TWO HUNDRED PERCENT TURN OUT. That’s over 200%. There’s 7 over 100%, and a ton of them in the 90s.  https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city

Now the quick liberal dismiss explanation for this is that Wisconsin has same day registration (again, a fraudsters dream) and thousands of people ignored months of TV and social media beating them over the head to get registered to vote, and just decided to do it at the last minute because Biden is just that awesome/Trump is just that bad.

Except if you’re an auditor, when you see super suspicious spikes like that in certain places, the first thing we think is that’s the place where you’ve got somebody over the controls colluding. So that’s where you go to fabricate your bullshit.

200% turn out is fucking insane. Same day voting or not. That’s madness. When I was looking into this stuff I pulled a HuffPo article about the 2012 election and how it was controversial that some Madison ward had gotten 119% turnout. 

Oh, but wait, there’s more.

A whistleblower has come forward from a Michigan post office saying that they were given ballots on November 4th, and ordered to post mark them to election day so they would still be valid.  https://www.facebook.com/JamesOKeefeAuthor/videos/381073273044980

That is so insanely illegal. When the reporter called the postal supervisor who gave the order and asked about it, he immediately hung up.

Now, on this one, liberals were quick to dismiss it because it was from Project Veritas. (who they hate, and say cherry picks their investigative reporting, yet they keep winning all the lawsuits against them) However, the very next video was the response from the US Postal Inspector General (or whatever his title is, I can’t remember) about how they are investigating, so this wasn’t just some crank going to a reporter, it’s been passed up the chain of command. It’s an actual whistle blower.

I had someone else try to dismiss this one as innocent, because the post office accepting these late ballots had no way of knowing who they voted for so it would balance out. That’s is so naïve its cute. Of course they knew who the ballots were for. They were probably dropped off by people they were colluding with. You don’t commit felonies for clueless strangers because you feel sorry they got their votes in late.

A quick note on collusion because I mentioned it a couple times now. Collusion is the key to successful fraud. Systems have controls and checks in places, so the best way to circumvent them is to team up with somebody over one of those controls and exploit the gap. That’s fraud 101. Which is why you go to the post office your buddy runs to drop off your illegal late emergency Save Biden ballots. Or you go to the ward your buddy the poll worker is running the log in book to same day register all your imaginary friends.

Speaking of the imaginary vote, this one is actually hilarious. Democrats are quick to say all votes must count, which apparently includes people who are 118 years old.  https://twitter.com/fleccas/status/1324216584219623424?s=21&fbclid=IwAR2rMt9iguDDYq_6H1FTQtMGekNEiTRRUNVsXN9xiEGvxS8z2VhHLJwo6-s

All those little fraud schemes come in from various directions, except the fraud numbers add up quick in a tight race. However, if you are behind by hundreds of thousands of votes in the middle of the night it requires some audacious level fuckery, which brings us to a red flag you can see from space. The 4 AM Biden Miracle. Here is an account from somebody at the counting center.  https://www.facebook.com/iamconniejohnson/videos/10225096326823289

This is the third link I’ve had to pull for this one, because Facebook keeps killing the others. Listen to the whole thing. Because after the statistically impossible votes came in, they had to toss a bunch of the GOP judges out of the building because of Covid.

Remember what I said about collusion? If you’ve got the actual system with the controls on your side, you can basically do any outlandish bullshit you feel like, and the only way you are going to get stopped is by an outside power (hence the multitude of lawsuits we’re going to see over the next few days).

Another thing you learn to spot when people are fraudulently manipulating data, is the mission-oriented spikes. On this one I’ve seen a few links, but the data has been so in flux that I’ve not been able to confirm it, but supposedly a bunch of the sudden Biden spikes weren’t just statistically improbable, they also voted for president but not the down ballot races. Now, lots of people will vote for president but don’t care about down ballot. However, when you get a pile of those in a row, that suggests somebody in a hurry filling out the mission critical bubble and then moving down stack, assembly line style.

There was also video taken of one guy delivering these mystery ballots to the counting center in the middle of the night (unloading them from a white van into a little red wagon) the link I used yesterday had been deleted by YouTube but I found this new one (can’t stop the signal, Mal) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh7h3w75D8U&feature=youtu.be

Gee whiz. I can’t imagine why mysterious boxes are being moved into this supposedly secure voting facility in the middle of the night with no observers or chain of custody.

And there’s more. They just keep coming. Yesterday morning I saw a small article about a republican official calling shenanigans on the voting in his small county, which went overwhelmingly Trump last time, and how it appeared the votes tallied weren’t even enough to account for his immediate family. Of course he got laughed at by caring liberals. Fast forward a few hours and it turns out that the voting program was faulty. https://www.westernjournal.com/election-program-issue-tallied-2-votes-gop-candidate-33-mi-counties-thought-using-software/

Worse, the same broken ass software was apparently used in 33 other counties. Hmmm… Again, with all these magical errors in these swing states all going in one side’s favor.

Then there’s SharpieGate, but I’ve heard so much conflicting stuff about that one, with sharpies actually working fine in the scantron machines, that I’m not putting much stock in that one yet. There’s a lawsuit already though, so it’ll be interesting to see what new information comes out.

Here’s another thing you learn about auditing. The more chaotic the system, the more chances for fraud. So when you come across a system that is extra chaotic on purpose, that tells you that the people running it want it that way for a reason.

And the flags just keep coming in. This is going to be way worse than Florida in 2000.

What happens now? Beats me. It goes to court, and then the real question becomes how much spine the republicans have to actually fight. In previous years I’d assume they’d be a bunch of spineless chickenshits and wimp out like usual, but I’m not so sure this time. I don’t know if or how any of these will pan out, and without access to the real data, all I can do is guess.

I can say without hesitation though, that fuckery is afoot, and if an actual real investigation happens they’ll be able to prove it. Only this is politics, so who knows. The only thing I do know for certain is that this election is so fucked up it is just going to make America’s two halves hate each other even more.

https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/05/the-2020-election-fuckery-is-afoot/?fbclid=IwAR2xFSfjvwbMnpOw_N9SuJkeRAGHVp1-OTE7AYMuKEnUXXCRNR2qlcZGU70
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 05:22:11 pm
Even though I do not agree with some of the posters here, it is good to see that they are still allowed to have their opinion heard.

It is. Even though I think some opinions are silly here, I get it. People are super frustrated. This is a good place to get those frustrations out.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 05, 2020, 05:43:46 pm
This is a horrible place to get frustrations about the election “out”.  But people impotently venting their frustration into complacency is part of social media’s purpose

Much better is to vent all that frustration on to your local RINO elected officials, if you have any.  Or going to street protests if you live anywhere within reason of a contested state.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 05:49:27 pm
Why aren't there any calls to contest the states that Trump won?

Good question! Why aren't the leftist scum contesting Trump states??? Especially in such a tight race??? That is weird.

Could it be that examinations and recounts of those states would reveal their unsuccessful fraud operations?

If people cared about the integrity of the elections in any real way, they'd be questioning everything.

I support that entirely. People have been losing faith in voting and the election system for decades. 2020 is yet more reason we need Voter ID, certification and verification of voting and identity. I do not believe we have a fair and transparent voting system in place, most especially as the culture war has gone into overdrive.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 05, 2020, 05:57:06 pm
Even though I do not agree with some of the posters here, it is good to see that they are still allowed to have their opinion heard.

It is. Even though I think some opinions are silly here, I get it. People are super frustrated. This is a good place to get those frustrations out.

Usually when lawsuits appear, those filing them are pretty far beyond just "super frustrated".

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 06:38:53 pm
If anyone believes that violent revolt can't happen in America, you are choosing to ignore the history of the human race.

FYI, Armenia is currently 40 days into a hot war.
(Armenia's that's the country where they make big butt celebrity girls).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war

Remember Rwanda? AKA, how media fueled mass murder?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide)

Whenever I hear "it can't happen here", I wonder if its a first world superiority complex. Certainly it can't be that "whites don't do that" because most of the AntiFart violence is courtesy of paleface soycucks. More importantly, we're talking about "here", a country born of revolution and violence that already fought its own civil war with a history of civilian armed conflicts, even in the 20th century.

The USA is particularly poised for civil war because of 3 factors:

1) Everyone knows the culture war is for keeps and its been building for many years now. There's no "live and let live" or "agree to disagree" possible with the culture war. The culture war has seeped into everything (including our dorky elf games!). You can't turn on baseball - "America's pastime" - without BLM bullshit shoved in your face. If the leftists win, the old culture of America will be erased and replaced with the SJW agenda. This is "out with the old, in with the new" and that refers not just to getting rid of "old" ideas, but people and institutions who express and support those "old" ideas.

2) The American people are heavily armed with a large population of veterans and hunters. Think about the number of people who have been trained to kill for America just since 9/11. Think about the number of people who hunt and shoot for fun. Research the amount of guns and ammo sold just since Saint Floyd got himself killed. And then realize Rwanda's genocide was fought with farm tools.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107651/monthly-unit-sales-of-firearms-by-type-us/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107651/monthly-unit-sales-of-firearms-by-type-us/)
 
3) There is no credible, unbiased media in the USA. Echo chambers, by their very nature, become louder and more extreme. Combine that with social media censorship and election interference by Silicon Valley oligarchs and we're just waiting for the spark that ignites the tinder.

BTW, a study of civil wars shows us that we can't predict what will be that spark.  Hindsight, not foresight, is 20/20.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 07:02:50 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Larsdangly on November 05, 2020, 07:13:52 pm
No, don't discourage them! This is getting deliciously absurd and I'd like to see how far down the rabbit hole these doofuses will go.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 05, 2020, 07:34:38 pm
Let me preface this with I didn’t vote for president this time or in 2016.  Why?   Because it doesn’t fucking matter.  If you are in the middle class your life will continue to decline no matter who the president is.  From the outside looking in I see a serious problem with political views in this country.  It’s “because A is corrupt B is not”  “A is fake news so B is real”.  “A lies so B is honest”.  So forth and so on.  From my perspective if Trump loses it’s because he’s a clown and people don’t like clowns. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 05, 2020, 07:36:00 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house

If you think that's how election rigging works, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why didn't they rig it to be 100%?
2) Why didn't they rig it to make every single Senator a Democrat?
3) Why didn't they win every single seat in the House?

It's almost like they can only tamper with a few ballots at a time without getting caught red-handed and there's more than 300 MILLION people in the US, almost half of which voted, so they can't flip 100% every single vote.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on November 05, 2020, 07:36:37 pm
No, don't discourage them! This is getting deliciously absurd and I'd like to see how far down the rabbit hole these doofuses will go.

Oh look it's the shit monkey who barely posts here and crawled out of his rock to do a drive by Trolling attempt and throw shit all over the place.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 05, 2020, 07:57:08 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house

No one's accusing them of being competent at it. So the scenario goes, the Dems didn't expect such a turnout for Trump, and ignored the Senate and House.

I'm reserving judgement until there is evidence, but I think investigating the close states is warranted.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 05, 2020, 08:04:06 pm
Let me preface this with I didn’t vote for president this time or in 2016.  Why?   Because it doesn’t fucking matter.  If you are in the middle class your life will continue to decline no matter who the president is.  From the outside looking in I see a serious problem with political views in this country.  It’s “because A is corrupt B is not”  “A is fake news so B is real”.  “A lies so B is honest”.  So forth and so on.  From my perspective if Trump loses it’s because he’s a clown and people don’t like clowns.

Binary Thinkers are the worst and the most hilarious ones I have seen recently are the ones who make statements like "If you dont vote for me then you aint black."
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 08:30:46 pm
Trump claimed Democrats control the election process in Georgia. It's a lie.

(https://i.imgur.com/J9WNbAX.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 08:33:00 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house

If you think that's how election rigging works, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why didn't they rig it to be 100%?
2) Why didn't they rig it to make every single Senator a Democrat?
3) Why didn't they win every single seat in the House?

It's almost like they can only tamper with a few ballots at a time without getting caught red-handed and there's more than 300 MILLION people in the US, almost half of which voted, so they can't flip 100% every single vote.

No that's nonsense. If you're going to rig an election, you at least gain enough senate seats to take the senate, and you don't LOSE house seats you gain some. Neither of which would have been a surprise, and both of which could have easily been sold to the public as accurate based on the polling.

Also, he's going to lose Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan. And in multiple counties for each where it's close. The number of people you'd need in on this conspiracy is insanely high...for so little given they are not also taking senate and house seats in those locations.

And most of these locations are controlled by Republican Governors, legislators, and election officials.

This makes no sense. This isn't what a rigged election looks like. And you know it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 05, 2020, 08:42:56 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house

If you think that's how election rigging works, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why didn't they rig it to be 100%?
2) Why didn't they rig it to make every single Senator a Democrat?
3) Why didn't they win every single seat in the House?

It's almost like they can only tamper with a few ballots at a time without getting caught red-handed and there's more than 300 MILLION people in the US, almost half of which voted, so they can't flip 100% every single vote.

This is the right wing mind distilled: The enemy left are utterly corrupt and omnipotent (cheating anywhere they like at will, even where they don't need it) but completely incompetent and ineffectual at the same time (oops, forgot to steal even one senate seat of those that the polling said favored the Democratic candidate; can steal a presidential race in a state by hundreds of thousands of votes but are too chicken to cheat on a few thousand in a Senate race). The heroic right wing is of course simultaneously an overwhelming majority and an oppressed minority.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Larsdangly on November 05, 2020, 09:03:49 pm
No, don't discourage them! This is getting deliciously absurd and I'd like to see how far down the rabbit hole these doofuses will go.

Oh look it's the shit monkey who barely posts here and crawled out of his rock to do a drive by Trolling attempt and throw shit all over the place.

You caught me! Honestly, this place is such a cesspool that I do hardly come here anymore, but I knew it would be a great place to harvest right wing tears. Perhaps the thing I most appreciate is that my innocuous little posts are getting reported to the moderators at a brisk pace. When did the hard core right on this forum turn into a bunch of tattle tales? It is like the incel version of TBP.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 09:04:46 pm
Interestingly enough, it's the poor showing by leftists for the House and Senate that's setting off MORE red flags.

It's well known the Never-Trumper movement is miniscule. Thus, it's not logical to see Republicans win while Trump loses. It's even more illogical that the epic Blue Tsunami for Dementia JoJo that eclipsed Holy Obama's vote count somehow didn't sweep leftists into the House and Senate.
 
Moreover, the presence of such an anomaly warrants a review of ballots, especially those where the only vote is for President.

ACB will certainly earn her own "Notorious" moniker after this debacle.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 05, 2020, 09:11:59 pm
Interestingly enough, it's the poor showing by leftists for the House and Senate that's setting off MORE red flags.

It's well known the Never-Trumper movement is miniscule. Thus, it's not logical to see Republicans win while Trump loses. It's even more illogical that the epic Blue Tsunami for Dementia JoJo that eclipsed Holy Obama's vote count somehow didn't sweep leftists into the House and Senate.
 
Moreover, the presence of such an anomaly warrants a review of ballots, especially those where the only vote is for President.

ACB will certainly earn her own "Notorious" moniker after this debacle.

Oh an actual "it's well known" claim.

Bwahahahahaha it's not fucking "well known" at all.

If this election were fixed, this would not have happened:

https://theweek.com/articles/947824/left-just-got-crushed

We're firmly in absurd lunatic sore loser conspiracy theory land right now with you guys. I saw far left loonies do this when W. Bush won on DemocraticUnderground years ago. You guys are making the identical ridiculous arguments that they did back then.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 09:14:48 pm
Perhaps the thing I most appreciate is that my innocuous little posts are getting reported to the moderators at a brisk pace.

What would that button even do on this forum?

Maybe it's a dinner bell for RPGPundit to unleash some LOLZ?

We don't ban people for being leftist retards. This is a free speech forum. This is not a "right wing" forum. YOU and the rest of the way-too-soon gloating clowns are 1000% welcome to post here as much as you want.

And lurkers, please cause some crosss-forum drama with Tangency. Maybe some tasty Twitter screeds since you can't meme. Make sure you babble out some great quotes and maybe RPGPundit will make you "famous" on his podcast.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 09:21:58 pm
Bwahahahahaha it's not fucking "well known" at all.

Pew Research - Trump had 87% approval among Republicans in August 2020
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/ (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/)

Also, you're proving my point about the anomaly. How is Biden both the MOST POPULAR candidate for President in history yet unable to win down ticket races for his party? 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on November 05, 2020, 09:25:10 pm
Greetings!

No "Right Wing Tears" necessary. I just ordered a new woodsman's tomahawk, 1,000 rounds of ammunition for my AR-15, and another 500 rounds for my Glock 45. I'm content up in the high mountains and forests here, where people are sane, god-fearing, and patriots that love *Traditional* America.

All the cock-sucking, blue-haired, pierced, tatted up gender-fluid Marxist fucks can dance a jig and choke on shit.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 05, 2020, 09:31:03 pm
If you think the Democrats rigged the election, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why did they rig it to be so close
2) Why didn't they rig the senate at the same time
3) Why did they rig it so Republicans gained seats in the house

If you think that's how election rigging works, please answer these simple questions:

1) Why didn't they rig it to be 100%?
2) Why didn't they rig it to make every single Senator a Democrat?
3) Why didn't they win every single seat in the House?

It's almost like they can only tamper with a few ballots at a time without getting caught red-handed and there's more than 300 MILLION people in the US, almost half of which voted, so they can't flip 100% every single vote.

This is the right wing mind distilled: The enemy left are utterly corrupt and omnipotent (cheating anywhere they like at will, even where they don't need it) but completely incompetent and ineffectual at the same time (oops, forgot to steal even one senate seat of those that the polling said favored the Democratic candidate; can steal a presidential race in a state by hundreds of thousands of votes but are too chicken to cheat on a few thousand in a Senate race). The heroic right wing is of course simultaneously an overwhelming majority and an oppressed minority.

If I am the "rrrite wing mind distilled" then the so-called "Right" has a fucking problem cuz the only "rrrite wing" issue I agree with them (at least in the US, cuz these bullshit "Left/Right" wing terms are so consistent and objectively defined they vary from country to country) is the 2nd amendment. I don't give a shit about the unborn (or most of the born for that matter), I've been a left-anarchist most my life (till around 6 years ago when identitarian woke politics kicked into full gear), and while I no longer consider myself a "socialist" I still tend to think that Craptitalism is shit and I don't give a shit about the rights of the corporations. In fact, I think that most of the problems we're facing these days--including the topic we're discussing right now, its largely due to how much power corporations (specially "big tech" and corporate media) have in the US and the world over.

I'm not even sure when I claimed that the so-called "Left" is omnipotent or that the whateverthefuck "right" is supposed to mean these days is an "oppressed minority", but I'll let you defend those claims, since I never made them. And the so-called (WTF is) "right wing" is an "overwhelming" majority? LOL, I guess we'd have to define WFT you does "rrrite wing" means to unpack that one, but...whatever dude, LOL
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on November 05, 2020, 09:33:03 pm
You caught me! Honestly, this place is such a cesspool that I do hardly come here anymore, but I knew it would be a great place to harvest right wing tears. Perhaps the thing I most appreciate is that my innocuous little posts are getting reported to the moderators at a brisk pace. When did the hard core right on this forum turn into a bunch of tattle tales? It is like the incel version of TBP.

Good to know your a Normie as well as a trolling disingenuous shit monkey.

I did not report your post as you would consider it a badge of honor.

Time to follow my own advice and not feed the troll.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on November 05, 2020, 09:35:50 pm
What would that button even do on this forum?

Maybe it's a dinner bell for RPGPundit to unleash some LOLZ?

We don't ban people for being leftist retards. This is a free speech forum. This is not a "right wing" forum. YOU and the rest of the way-too-soon gloating clowns are 1000% welcome to post here as much as you want.

And lurkers, please cause some crosss-forum drama with Tangency. Maybe some tasty Twitter screeds since you can't meme. Make sure you babble out some great quotes and maybe RPGPundit will make you "famous" on his podcast.

It's funny why he assumed automatically that his posts would be reported. It's such transparent, obvious pathetic attempt at Trolling that I saw it two galaxies away. Despite that he can post. Let him shit post it's not like he adds any value to the forum.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 05, 2020, 09:39:28 pm
Going to post this...

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 05, 2020, 09:53:10 pm

Oh an actual "it's well known" claim.

Bwahahahahaha it's not fucking "well known" at all.

If this election were fixed, this would not have happened:

https://theweek.com/articles/947824/left-just-got-crushed

We're firmly in absurd lunatic sore loser conspiracy theory land right now with you guys. I saw far left loonies do this when W. Bush won on DemocraticUnderground years ago. You guys are making the identical ridiculous arguments that they did back then.

Dude, no one likes backstabbing copperheads.  NeverTrump was despised long before election night

You should hope that establishment GOP took notes on how to rig primaries from Dems, because the rank-and-file is solidly behind Trumpism and won’t turn out for 1990-2016 globalist GOP crap. 

I sincerely hope the Republican Party is simply abandoned for a new alternative that doesn’t carry copperhead baggage. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 05, 2020, 09:55:53 pm
Whoever wins, the damage done to the confidence of the American people in our system of electing government officials is irreversible.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 05, 2020, 10:08:47 pm
You need an independent electoral commission like we have in Oz, Jeff. It should be run by people who genuinely do not give a shit either way.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 05, 2020, 10:10:38 pm
Greetings!

No "Right Wing Tears" necessary. I just ordered a new woodsman's tomahawk, 1,000 rounds of ammunition for my AR-15, and another 500 rounds for my Glock 45. I'm content up in the high mountains and forests here, where people are sane, god-fearing, and patriots that love *Traditional* America.

All the cock-sucking, blue-haired, pierced, tatted up gender-fluid Marxist fucks can dance a jig and choke on shit.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

You best believe I’m armed with my concealed everywhere I go these days.  The BLM/Antifa twats here in Portland started rioting before any of this election nonsense even started.  I would open carry if it didn’t invite harassment from the po po. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 05, 2020, 10:45:53 pm
You need an independent electoral commission like we have in Oz, Jeff. It should be run by people who genuinely do not give a shit either way.
How did you manage that? The "non-partisan" equivalents in the US are 100% partisan, just typically carefully balanced to be 50% partisan red and 50% partisan blue, completely locking out third parties, the disinterested, and independents. That results in hyper-partisan exclusionary shit like primary elections and gerrymandering commissions.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 05, 2020, 11:05:47 pm
Has there been a democratic system without any political parties in the modern era?

I wonder if its even possible. Tribalism seems coded in our DNA, or at least rooted deep in our brain.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 05, 2020, 11:23:33 pm
It should be run by people who genuinely do not give a shit either way.
It shouldn't be too hard to find people like that in America. Now to just whip them up into a apathetic frenzy.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 05, 2020, 11:37:24 pm
There have been a lot of proposals to expand the size of Congress because the size of the districts are too large (average 700K for a rep or 6.5M maybe /2 for a Senator), or because how much your vote counts varies too widely (that 700K for a rep varies from a little over 500K to almost 1M -- a Montanan vote is worth about half a Rhode Islander vote).

One proposal is to expand the House to 930 seats (https://time.com/5423623/house-representatives-number-seats/), which would minimize the whole "your vote counts more or less depending which district you live in" problem. Another one I've suggested before is making each district about 50K. That puts the public in closer touch with their rep, and roughly corresponds to the size of House districts in the late 18th and early to mid 19th centuries (35-70K or so). It would also mean we could give the various populated territories like American Samoa their own reps without completely screwing things up (the smallest House district is just over 500K, while the various territories are much smaller, in the 50-170K range.)

But then we'd end up with 5,000-10,000 reps, which seems absurd. So how about this: Get rid of geography, make it national. If 50,000 people anywhere in the US vote for a Satanist, then the Satanist gets a seat. If 5,000,000 vote for Kayne West, he also gets a seat. But with 100 times the number of votes, he gets 100 times the number of votes on the floor. So we might end up with only a couple hundred seated reps, but 6,500 total votes distributed among them based on their public support. This would allow minorities, assembled from small but organized groups across the entire nation, to have a voice in Congress, something that's been completely absent from the current system. And since it creates a parliamentary-style distribution, even the single vote reps might be able to extract practical concessions, when forming coalitions, so they'll end up with a smidgen of practical power on top of the voice.

This is less a serious proposal, and more a thought experiment, because I still like geographical ties. Government where people live makes sense for all kinds of things like education and infrastructure, which should be reflected in the national legislature.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 05, 2020, 11:38:07 pm
It should be run by people who genuinely do not give a shit either way.
It shouldn't be too hard to find people like that in America. Now to just whip them up into a apathetic frenzy.

"I'd like to volunteer!"

"DISQUALIFIED!"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 05, 2020, 11:51:57 pm
How did you manage that?
You appoint the head of the electoral commission (https://aec.gov.au/About_AEC/) for five years, renewable for further five year terms. They do not serve at the pleasure of the government of the day.

The other things like how to when and how draw electoral boundaries etc are written in the legislation so there's not a lot of room for the AEC to fuck around with them. There are obviously other aspects, but this talks about (https://aec.gov.au/faqs/Redistributions.htm) how electoral boundaries are drawn.

Two other aspects are relevant. The first is compulsory voting, and the other is preferential voting.

With voluntary voting, you have to motivate people to get out and vote. You can do this by inspiring them or by making them angry.

It's a lot, lot easier to make them angry. This encourages polarisation of the political process, and this flows down the hill to all the many and various appointments of judges and EPA officials and all the rest which any normal government makes. With compulsory voting, people just have to vote, the only question is for who. Some parties still try to make people angry but they tend to be minority parties (ie never forming part of a government), and stay minority unless they change to behaving like a major party, which get people to vote for them by promising them benefits. So there's not such a motivation to politicise institutions.

As for preferential voting, essentially it works as, you get a ballot paper, and number the candidates 1,2,3, etc in your order of preference. First the AEC looks at all the "1" votes. If someone gets more than 50%, they're in. If not - whoever got the least votes, they take their ballot papers and look at who they put 2nd, and allocate those votes to them.

For example, Kyle, Pat and Pundit are candidates, and we have 100 voters. The primary (put "1") vote goes as follows,
Kyle 45
Pat 40
Pundit 15

Pundit is eliminated, and they look at Pundit's voters and see who they put 2nd. Of the 15 Pundit voters, 3 put Kyle 2nd, and 12 and put Pat 2nd. Now it goes,
Kyle 45+3 = 48
Pat 40+12 = 52
and Pat is elected. Of course it becomes more complicated with 10 or whatever candidates, but you get the picture.

The result of this is that groups who get just a few percent of the vote and would never themselves get in do have some influence. Parties can recommend to their followers who they should preference. So Pundit could tell his followers, "actually, put Kyle 2nd." They may or may not listen, but many do - and then Kyle gets 6 of the 2nd preference votes instead of 3, and gets in.

In this way, a party like the Greens who themselves almost never win seats can influence policy. The major party comes along and says, "If we subsidise wind turbines, will you tell your voters to put us 2nd?" and the other says, "If we let in more refugees, will you...?" And so the major parties start taking on some of the policies of minor parties. This, too, makes things less polarised, and reduces the tendency to politicising institutions.

Of course it's not foolproof. Here in Victoria the police have become politicised because the same guys have been in for 17 of the last 20 years, so all the senior police were appointed by those guys. Thus BLM, climate, etc protests being allowed but anti-government ones broken up. So we can say that an independent electoral commission, compulsory and preferential voting certainly help, but they are not everything in preventing the politicisation of institutions.

On the other hand, nobody doubts the legitimacy of our elections. The elections are free and fair and essentially without fraud or manipulation - even if the government of the day is corrupt as all fuck, people definitely chose that corrupt government.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 05, 2020, 11:55:20 pm
This is less a serious proposal, and more a thought experiment -
Speaking of which, the scifi authour Karl Gallagher had a world where they had an auctionocracy - individuals or groups would do secret bidding for seats in parliament, and the funds from the winning bids were the planet's budget that year. Corporations, unions, lobby groups or whoever could bid as they saw fit. Instead of fighting corruption and bribery, make it part of the system, and use the funds for the public good! It's an intriguing idea :)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 06, 2020, 12:02:09 am
How did you manage that?
You ...
I'll have to think about the implications. But thanks for posting it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 12:16:33 am
I don't think you could get compulsory voting happening in the US. But you could get preferential voting, and some independent electoral commissions.

Just think: with preferential voting, the Libertarian Party would determine the current US Presidential election :D That's one way to move the Overton Window!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 06, 2020, 12:38:32 am
One problem with the version of ranked voting you're describing is a lot of people think the candidate with the most public support should win, not someone who gets the edge because they're the second choice. It seems to be a fixation of a lot of the one person, one vote crowd who don't realize that's not some kind of perfect platonic ideal, and that all voting systems come with weird and unexpected consequences.

Another variation on the bidding system might be to make the vote a betting system. Instead of picking a candidate, you weigh which one will be the best president, and then place a bet on how well they'll do. The person who gets elected is the one the most betters rate the highest, and all the money they bet is placed in a trust. After the candidate leave office, there's a popular opinion poll on how well they did, and the betters get money based on how well they predicted the public sentiment.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 06, 2020, 12:52:24 am
LEFT RIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!!

If everyone wants a fight, we should be fighting THIS:

and not each other. It's what Mr. Bigglesworth wants!  ;)

Also, it's why I have been following this place - https://x22report.com/the-sting-operation-has-begun-trump-knew-be-ready-eas-on-deck-episode-2321/

(If anyone has been paying attention, I don't believe in humanity. I believe only in fud. However, that doesn't mean I'm ASLEEP. Especially since my life is literally on the line with all this. Because of what I know, I can tell you all - where I come from, the dead always come out to vote. 2018, it was a by a margin of 1.102:1.00 meaning, twice as many people voted as there are legally registered voters. And, it's a sanctuary city. And we've had the same mayor for over 23 years. Last person to run against him was FORCED out of town. As was most of our old retired police officers AND veterans. Isn't much to do except wait to see if they do to me what they did to the last guy to try and expose them. I always wanted to meet the death squads of the USA. I wonder how many of them were former Delta...)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 01:17:58 am
Again, Larry Correia reporting live from the front lines:

Quote
Fascinating stuff on Twitter tonight. Apparently somebody gathered a giant list of dead people for Wisconsin and Michigan, and crowd sourced a hunt through the voting records to see how many dead people registered and voted. And then people began to plug them into the state websites. Many were registered but didn’t vote, but many others did vote in 2020. (Joe Biden is so popular that even being dead can’t stop the Joementum!)

When people found dead voters they would post the names and birth dates (many of them 100 years ago) so that others could confirm them for themselves. Now I’m not saying these are all accurate and I have no idea how many there will be, but you can check those yourselves. It’s darkly hilarious.

Yet while I watched this, Twitter kept deleting the accounts sharing the file list. They’d block somebody, and then ten minutes later someone else would share it and get blocked too. In the half an hour or so I scrolled through dead voters the people sharing the list kept vanishing. It was kind of amazing to watch real time. But one would get blocked and somebody else would take their place.

If the thing that saves America from turning into a cyberpunk dystopia run by ruthless tech oligarchs... is 4chan... I’m gonna laugh because I truly did not see that coming. 😀

Really interesting though, liberals jumping in and saying “oh yeah! So what it ten thousand  dead people voted in Detroit, that’s not enough! Biden still wins!” Because obviously these particular dead people are the only fraud and everything else is squeaky clean.

Sure, in every other aspect of life we recognize that humans regularly lie, cheat, and steal and we prepare accordingly. But if you suggest there is voter fraud liberals get all HOW DARE YOU INSULT THE SANCTITY OF OUR PURE ELECTIONS?!? and then the GOP is such chickenshits they agree with that and say sure, keep that box of ballots you found behind the TacoBell after the polls close that are just enough to beat us, because we’d hate to lose undignified.

Meanwhile the DNC is gleefully having 120 year olds vote in Detroit. And liberals are all like, that’s perfectly normal and not at all suspicious HOW DARE YOU FASCIST VOTER SUPPRESSION.

Most of the people who argued with me today, the excuse making and gas lighting was just pathetic. I would respect these people a lot more if they were just honest and said they are cool with voter fraud because it helps their team.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 01:22:30 am
One problem with the version of ranked voting you're describing is a lot of people think the candidate with the most public support should win, not someone who gets the edge because they're the second choice.
Sure, but if you have 10 candidates, 9 of them get 9.9% of the vote and 1 of them gets get 10.9%, is that really the candidate with the "most support"? Technically, yes, but... many people might say, "If I'd known my guy wasn't getting in, and losing just by 1%... I wouldn't have voted for that guy..."

You can think of preferential as rounds of voting where the lowest-placed person is excluded - but only the people who voted for that person get to vote again. Many countries do rounds of voting, especially for Presidential positions, but of course with a secret ballot everyone gets a second, third, etc vote, not just those who voted for the loser. Preferential voting allows those who voted for the least-popular candidate to still have a say without compromising the secrecy of the ballot. "Okay, if you can't have this guy, who would you choose?"

As I said, preferential voting reduces polarisation because the major parties have to take on some of the policies of the minor parties to get their support. In the US, the Democrats would probably take on more Green policies, and the Republicans more Libertarian policies, but each would at least try to not completely alienate those minor parties. Parties would be less polarised, and more inclusive of "middle of the road" policies.

As well, with first-past-the-post, the support for minor parties will always be small. Since they've no chance of getting in, their support will be limited to the idealistic or extremely disillusioned. "Yeah he won't get in, but fuck you." With preferential voting you still have your 2nd, etc choice, which allows you to say, "Fuck you, but -" And so we find in Australia that third party votes hover between 10-25% of the primary vote overall. The amount varies - if it's 10% the major parties tend to ignore them, but because they ignore them their support gradually increases to 25% or so, and 1-2 even get into some parliaments (our state parliament has 3 Greens and 3 independents out of 88 lower house members), and then they start listening again - but by this time those minor parties are better-established, so... again, less polarisation.

With less polarisation, there would be less motivation for electoral fraud, and at the same time less motivation for alleging electoral fraud.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 01:52:47 am
I don't think you could get compulsory voting happening in the US. But you could get preferential voting, and some independent electoral commissions.

Just think: with preferential voting, the Libertarian Party would determine the current US Presidential election :D That's one way to move the Overton Window!
I've been doubtful about a positive effect of compulsory voting, but I see some merit in your point that it would reduce the urge to make up partisan stories of doom to get people to the polls - so it could reduce the partisan divide. I agree that it likely won't happen in the U.S. But I do see a future in ranked choice voting - which has been implemented in Maine at present.

https://qz.com/1920978/does-compulsory-voting-hurt-or-benefit-democracy/

I'm not quite clear on how independent election commissions get instituted, but I agree it seems like a good idea. I get that they have an independent budget so they're not dependent on the legislative branch, but how do members get appointed?

Regarding specific claims of fraud, I'd like to see evidence of some sort.

I can tell you all - where I come from, the dead always come out to vote. 2018, it was a by a margin of 1.102:1.00 meaning, twice as many people voted as there are legally registered voters. And, it's a sanctuary city. And we've had the same mayor for over 23 years. Last person to run against him was FORCED out of town. As was most of our old retired police officers AND veterans. Isn't much to do except wait to see if they do to me what they did to the last guy to try and expose them. I always wanted to meet the death squads of the USA. I wonder how many of them were former Delta...)
So, what city is this? Can you give some names or sources for this happening?


Again, Larry Correia reporting live from the front lines:
Quote
Fascinating stuff on Twitter tonight. Apparently somebody gathered a giant list of dead people for Wisconsin and Michigan, and crowd sourced a hunt through the voting records to see how many dead people registered and voted. And then people began to plug them into the state websites. Many were registered but didn’t vote, but many others did vote in 2020. (Joe Biden is so popular that even being dead can’t stop the Joementum!)

When people found dead voters they would post the names and birth dates (many of them 100 years ago) so that others could confirm them for themselves. Now I’m not saying these are all accurate and I have no idea how many there will be, but you can check those yourselves.

So he says you can check them for yourselves - but there isn't any specific information included to check. There's just the claim that "Someone said it on Twitter" - which I don't consider to be proof of anything.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 06, 2020, 01:58:55 am
One problem with the version of ranked voting you're describing is a lot of people think the candidate with the most public support should win, not someone who gets the edge because they're the second choice.
Sure, but if you have 10 candidates, 9 of them get 9.9% of the vote and 1 of them gets get 10.9%, is that really the candidate with the "most support"? Technically, yes, but... many people might say, "If I'd known my guy wasn't getting in, and losing just by 1%... I wouldn't have voted for that guy..."

You can think of preferential as rounds of voting where the lowest-placed person is excluded - but only the people who voted for that person get to vote again. Many countries do rounds of voting, especially for Presidential positions, but of course with a secret ballot everyone gets a second, third, etc vote, not just those who voted for the loser. Preferential voting allows those who voted for the least-popular candidate to still have a say without compromising the secrecy of the ballot. "Okay, if you can't have this guy, who would you choose?"

As I said, preferential voting reduces polarisation because the major parties have to take on some of the policies of the minor parties to get their support. In the US, the Democrats would probably take on more Green policies, and the Republicans more Libertarian policies, but each would at least try to not completely alienate those minor parties. Parties would be less polarised, and more inclusive of "middle of the road" policies.

As well, with first-past-the-post, the support for minor parties will always be small. Since they've no chance of getting in, their support will be limited to the idealistic or extremely disillusioned. "Yeah he won't get in, but fuck you." With preferential voting you still have your 2nd, etc choice, which allows you to say, "Fuck you, but -" And so we find in Australia that third party votes hover between 10-25% of the primary vote overall. The amount varies - if it's 10% the major parties tend to ignore them, but because they ignore them their support gradually increases to 25% or so, and 1-2 even get into some parliaments (our state parliament has 3 Greens and 3 independents out of 88 lower house members), and then they start listening again - but by this time those minor parties are better-established, so... again, less polarisation.

With less polarisation, there would be less motivation for electoral fraud, and at the same time less motivation for alleging electoral fraud.
Sorry, you may have forgotten, but in the United States the people do NOT vote for candidates DIRECTLY. They vote for the states' ELECTORS. So, everything you just said would never work. It would just lead to even GREATER FRAUD! We are a REPUBLIC, not a democracy:
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/provisions
Quote
Twelfth Amendment

The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;--The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 02:21:30 am
As I said, preferential voting reduces polarisation because the major parties have to take on some of the policies of the minor parties to get their support. In the US, the Democrats would probably take on more Green policies, and the Republicans more Libertarian policies, but each would at least try to not completely alienate those minor parties. Parties would be less polarised, and more inclusive of "middle of the road" policies.
Sorry, you may have forgotten, but in the United States the people do NOT vote for candidates DIRECTLY. They vote for the states' ELECTORS. So, everything you just said would never work. It would just lead to even GREATER FRAUD! We are a REPUBLIC, not a democracy:
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/provisions
consolcwby, the winner is ultimately determined by the states' electors, but people still vote for a specific presidential candidate. When you vote, you see that the choices listed on your ballot for president are not electors, but rather candidates for president - including independent and third-party candidates. Voters can even put on write-in candidates. The electors might not follow the popular vote - but people's votes are still for the actual candidates, not which electors get to vote.

States can and have implemented laws that specify how voters choices go. Maine has now implemented ranked-choice voting, which was used in the 2020 General Elections. Here are some articles about it:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/maine-becomes-first-state-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-in-a-presidential-election-11604062812
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Maine
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 04:38:20 am
consolcwby must not have voted before or he'd know what a Presidential ballot paper looks like.

Plus, I'm talking about more than just Presidential elections. I know that's the focus right now because of the neck-and-neck race, but you've got counties and sheriffs and state lower and upper houses and mayors and so on and so forth. It's possible to have one system for one of those and another for others (our upper houses do this weird proportional thing...)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 04:51:06 am
I'm not quite clear on how independent election commissions get instituted, but I agree it seems like a good idea. I get that they have an independent budget so they're not dependent on the legislative branch, but how do members get appointed?
Officially the Commissioner and deputies etc (https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/structure.htm) are appointed by the Governor General, but "with the advice of" the federal Cabinet. It's commonly a former justice, senior cop, that sort of person, sometimes military. In other words, you make one institution impartial by topping it up with people from other impartial institutions.

There are endless committees and so on appointed to redraw electoral boundaries and all that. As for their funding, it's the same as many government departments. Basically they just give everyone a salary and then leave them to it.

I think there's a certain foresight in it, rather than integrity. We know from the history of Queensland which engaged in insane gerrymandering so that the boss could get in with 20% of the vote - still eventually he got knocked over, and then things were cleaned up. So if your party fucks with things it eventually comes back to bite you, and the other guys may turn it around and fuck you badly, too. Political mutually assured destruction.

This foresight seems to be absent in the US parties at federal level. Like, if you stack the Supreme Court with extra guys to swing it your way, what's your successor going to do? In 50 years the Supreme Court would be bigger than Congress. It's more sensible to just not fuck with things and then, you know, try to get people to vote for you based on your actual policies and results.

Now this was interesting, even 28% of LGBT/etc voted for old Drumf.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 06, 2020, 10:13:17 am
I think there's a certain foresight in it, rather than integrity. We know from the history of Queensland which engaged in insane gerrymandering so that the boss could get in with 20% of the vote - still eventually he got knocked over, and then things were cleaned up. So if your party fucks with things it eventually comes back to bite you, and the other guys may turn it around and fuck you badly, too. Political mutually assured destruction.
That sounds like it's more about culture/traditions, than the institutions themselves. Which wouldn't work in the US right now, because the two parties keep launching waves of mutually assured destruction. One of them was even called the "nuclear option", back when it was triggered -- that was the 2011 change by Harry Reid (D), which got rid of procedural rules in the Senate that allowed the minority party to hold up appointments and bills, and thus forced some degree of comity or consensus. Which recently bit the Democrats in the ass, because it's that rule change that allowed the Republicans to push through the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett without any Democratic support. And it's only escalating, for example with all the talk about court-packing.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 06, 2020, 10:31:52 am
Now this was interesting, even 28% of LGBT/etc voted for old Drumf.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
One of the biggest takeaways in this election is Trump was up in almost every demographic, except white men. He did better among LGBT+ voters, among women voters, among black voters, and among hispanic voters -- Zapata County in Texas flipped from 66% voting for Hillary in 2016 to almost the same number voting for Trump, this year. Overall, the Rio Grande Valley shifted 10 points toward Trump. Similar gains among hispanics in southern Florida, and not just among those of Cuban descent. That helps explain why the Republicans are gaining seats in the House and holding steady in the Senate -- even if Biden ends up winning, it was Trump not Biden who helped the candidates down the ticket.

This isn't a huge flip in absolute terms, just a few percentage points. But since Republicans have traditionally done so poorly among those groups, the relative gains are large. The blue stranglehold on most of those demographics seems to be gradually eroding.

https://news.kointopic.com/2020/11/05/donald-trump-made-gains-in-every-demographic-except-for-white-men/
https://www.statesman.com/opinion/20201105/first-reading-why-it-was-viva-trump-in-zapata-county
https://hotair.com/archives/karen-townsend/2020/11/05/al-sharpton-admits-trump-well-black-hispanic-voters-appealed-minorities/
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 11:17:53 am
There is so much rampant fraud going on right now that the only way you could possibly believe otherwise is if you're a fucking moron or so mesmerized by the left that you think they couldn't possibly cheat because they're paragons of virtue (go back to "fucking moron" comment).

Trump is litigating this bullshit, so hopefully there are massive recounts and all these fake ballots thrown out. If not, bring on the boogaloo.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: RandyB on November 06, 2020, 11:30:51 am
There is so much rampant fraud going on right now that the only way you could possibly believe otherwise is if you're a fucking moron or so mesmerized by the left that you think they couldn't possibly cheat because they're paragons of virtue (go back to "fucking moron" comment).

Trump is litigating this bullshit, so hopefully there are massive recounts and all these fake ballots thrown out. If not, bring on the boogaloo.

You left out a third option: fellow traveler of the perpetrators and intentionally trying to gaslight as many people as possible.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 11:33:18 am
So he says you can check them for yourselves - but there isn't any specific information included to check. There's just the claim that "Someone said it on Twitter" - which I don't consider to be proof of anything.

I'll let him answer this one.

Again folks, Larry Correia.

Quote
It is kind of amazing how the same dishonest shitheads who kept repeating debunked things like the Very Fine People narrative for four years, can now dismiss giant articles chronicling 10 examples of potential voter fraud because one of them kinda gets a plausible explanation several hours after I wrote the article. Ergo, the other 9 cease to exist and HOW DARE YOU INSINUATE THAT HUMAN BEINGS EVER DO ANYTHING DISHONEST!

It's amazing how that works.

After a few days of debating this I'm pretty sure that everybody believes fraud happened. Only one side has to ignore human nature and history to pretend that fraud couldn't possibly have happened. Except they know it too. They  just don't want to come out and admit they're okay with fraud because of team sports.

Ironically, these are the same people who are so fundamentally dishonest that they'll believe anything about the other team, regardless of how little evidence there is.

I've noticed that most of my liberal friends who I consider to be honest people with integrity haven't said much on this subject. They'll be glad if Trump is gone because that benefits their interests, and that's fine. I respect that. However I'm not seeing any of them comment on the process, because this clusterfuck of an election is pretty much indefensible.

But the dishonest little shits? Oh man. It can practically rain statistical miracles and they'll look you in the eye and claim that's totally normal.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 11:53:18 am
You left out a third option: fellow traveler of the perpetrators and intentionally trying to gaslight as many people as possible.

Good catch. There are several posters on here that are revealing themselves to be either really, really stupid or outright shills for the CCP. There's no other explanation.

I'll let him answer this one.

So what you're saying is leftists believe anything with zero evidence if it fits a narrative they like, and no amount of evidence could possibly make them believe anything to the contrary. It's times like these that make me remember why I hated Hegel so much, and  also all the rubes in grad school who were hugging his nuts. Pathetic.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 12:12:29 pm
So he says you can check them for yourselves - but there isn't any specific information included to check. There's just the claim that "Someone said it on Twitter" - which I don't consider to be proof of anything.
I'll let him answer this one.

Again folks, Larry Correia.

Quote
It is kind of amazing how the same dishonest shitheads who kept repeating debunked things like the Very Fine People narrative for four years, can now dismiss giant articles chronicling 10 examples of potential voter fraud because one of them kinda gets a plausible explanation several hours after I wrote the article. Ergo, the other 9 cease to exist and HOW DARE YOU INSINUATE THAT HUMAN BEINGS EVER DO ANYTHING DISHONEST!

It's amazing how that works.

After a few days of debating this I'm pretty sure that everybody believes fraud happened. Only one side has to ignore human nature and history to pretend that fraud couldn't possibly have happened. Except they know it too. They  just don't want to come out and admit they're okay with fraud because of team sports.

Ironically, these are the same people who are so fundamentally dishonest that they'll believe anything about the other team, regardless of how little evidence there is.

I've noticed that most of my liberal friends who I consider to be honest people with integrity haven't said much on this subject. They'll be glad if Trump is gone because that benefits their interests, and that's fine. I respect that. However I'm not seeing any of them comment on the process, because this clusterfuck of an election is pretty much indefensible.

But the dishonest little shits? Oh man. It can practically rain statistical miracles and they'll look you in the eye and claim that's totally normal.

This is a naked ad-hominem. I believe that fraud may well have occurred - there have been hundreds of documented cases of fraud in past elections, after all.

But I'm asking for specific evidence before I'll believe any particular claim of fraud.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 12:15:14 pm
A good statistical breakdown of the registration and voting numbers which are just a few reasons why people are saying that there is rampant fraud going on.

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572?fbclid=IwAR0YBBaMD2MlfMCl8C0teK2BzFfsDmgHGNAr7pX-fdkOAikQBzporVVwN8M
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 12:30:59 pm
A good statistical breakdown of the registration and voting numbers which are just a few reasons why people are saying that there is rampant fraud going on.

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572?fbclid=IwAR0YBBaMD2MlfMCl8C0teK2BzFfsDmgHGNAr7pX-fdkOAikQBzporVVwN8M
Thanks, jeff. This is at least some specific claims. However, from the article, Hounsell at least gives specific states and numbers, but he doesn't explain the sources for those numbers. He says he's using adjusted polling data - but polls vary in their numbers and reliability. For example, here is his first claim.

Quote from: Scott Hounsell
In all of the polling data (*when adjusted), it told us Trump was going to win by larger margins among minority voters.  The numbers literally don’t lie.  In North Carolina, Democrats lost 161,000 voters since 2016 while Republicans gained 72,000 voters.  You want us to believe that Republicans, who have registered as such since the Trump era, walked into the voting booth on Election day and pulled the trigger for Biden?  In that state, Trump currently leads by 77,000 votes, in a state Trump won by 173,000 votes in 2016, and that Republicans picked up a 230k voter margin since?  I call BS.

There is an asterisk by saying "when adjusted", which seems to indicate a footnote, but there isn't any footnote that I could see. What polls is he using to get these numbers, and what were the adjustments?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 01:03:42 pm
Looks like reality is starting to sink in. Fox News is starting to admit Biden won. Rush Limbaugh admits Biden won. Internals from the Trump administration are saying the hard evidence of fraud is "not looking good" and their legal challenges are no longer looking promising as even their best case scenarios are not adding up to enough votes to change the result of the election. Their dusting off plans for Trump to start his own television news network. Quotes of "there will be a peaceful transition of power" from Trump officials.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 01:07:11 pm
Looks like reality is starting to sink in. Fox News is starting to admit Biden won. Rush Limbaugh admits Biden won. Internals from the Trump administration are saying the hard evidence of fraud is "not looking good" and their legal challenges are no longer looking promising as even their best case scenarios are not adding up to enough votes to change the result of the election. Their dusting off plans for Trump to start his own television news network. Quotes of "there will be a peaceful transition of power" from Trump officials.

All you have is FUD anymore. Starting to admit is  not the act of admitting.

https://www.newsweek.com/rush-limbaugh-walks-back-his-comments-after-accusations-he-said-biden-won-election-1545565

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 01:08:55 pm
The libs are singing victory too soon, and vice versa for conservatives.

Look, the margins are razor thin in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Arizona is probably going to flip to the president; that's the trend. With the others, who knows. A lot of the incoming ballots are from the military and most of those historically go for the president.

It's a hotly contested election, as we all should've known it would be. The Bernie fans didn't stay home this time even though Biden sucks, so you had to account for that. Even with that, nothing is sure for Biden.

It's a rough scrap, and I still think Trump will surprise everyone.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 01:21:00 pm
The libs are singing victory too soon, and vice versa for conservatives.

Look, the margins are razor thin in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Arizona is probably going to flip to the president; that's the trend. With the others, who knows. A lot of the incoming ballots are from the military and most of those historically go for the president.

It's a hotly contested election, as we all should've known it would be. The Bernie fans didn't stay home this time even though Biden sucks, so you had to account for that. Even with that, nothing is sure for Biden.

It's a rough scrap, and I still think Trump will surprise everyone.

The thing is, the margin in Pennsylvania isn't going to be that close. It's rapidly falling outside the recount level. And Pennsylvania is all Biden needs to win. Even if you add up all the evidence of "fraud" allegations in Pennsylvania, it's nothing close to the numbers needed to change that result to be in Trumps favor overall there.

Arizona, I have no idea. You can thank Trump insulting John McCain for years, including after his death, for his loss there if he does lose because that was an idiotic strategy.

Georgia, looks very likely Biden but we won't know until the last of the overseas ballots are counted and the questionable ballots are dealt with. Ironically, Trump will almost certainly be demanding the questionable ballots and late-arriving ballots in Georgia BE counted, because he wouldn't be able to win without them.

But really, I think he's toast because of Pennsylvania. I don't think there is the margin for victory there. The administration, internally, appears to see that. The mood inside the Whitehouse appears to have changed dramatically overnight. They are no longer optimistic. They are seeing the numbers play out, and the fraud allegations were only a backstop if it was one or two states, and if the count was closer. It's just not going to be close enough, and not going to be in a small enough number of states, for the lawsuits to make a difference in the overall result.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 01:34:32 pm
Bwahahahahaha it's not fucking "well known" at all.

Pew Research - Trump had 87% approval among Republicans in August 2020
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/ (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/24/trumps-approval-ratings-so-far-are-unusually-stable-and-deeply-partisan/)

Also, you're proving my point about the anomaly. How is Biden both the MOST POPULAR candidate for President in history yet unable to win down ticket races for his party? 

1) Many Republicans left the part to be independents. Count myself as one of them. I've been a registered Republican since 1987. I changed my party affiliation in California to No Party Preference.
2) 13% of Republicans is more than enough than needed to elect Biden but still elect Republicans in the House and Senate races, in close races. Trump is losing by a percent or two in some states. Meanwhile Republicans in the House and Senate races in states are often winning by a percentage or two. THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE. That's the "Never Trump" vote.

Though I have not called myself a Never-Trumper. If Sanders or Warren had been the nominee my vote would have been different this time. But Biden was in my top three of choices for "OK I can hold my nose and vote that way". I think a lot of Republicans are in the same boat. And by "a lot" I mean roughly 20%, or 1 in 5. Many, like myself, went independent. Others remained Republicans but are in that 13% who do not support Trump.

And we made the difference this election. We got the Republicans to (it looks like) retain the Senate, and increase their representatives in the House. And we will help get the Republicans to win back the House next election. You don't need to support Trump, to support the Republican party and conservative ideology. Trump's platform was never particularly "conservative" anyway in my view. His constant attacks on McCain and Romney, the last two nominees from the party prior to him, demonstrates he was not particularly in line with the party to begin with. He's nothing like either W. Bush or Bush Sr. for that matter either.

And you can insult us all you want, but you're going to need our support to fight against Social Justice Warriors promoting progressive agendas. You're going to need every ally you can find.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 06, 2020, 01:49:08 pm
Trump's platform was never particularly "conservative" anyway in my view.

That's kinda why I can stomach him, honestly. Unfortunately, I can't vote in the general from where I live. My preference would have been Tulsi Gabbard, though. But Trump vs Biden I would've voted for Trump if I could (not that it would matter much, since I suspect most people in PR would vote Democrat if this was a state).
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 01:50:52 pm
 Biden on path to win 306 Electoral College votes, same as Trump's 'landslide' victory in 2016. (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-on-path-to-win-306-electoral-college-votes-same-as-trumps-landslide-victory-in-2016)
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 02:20:59 pm
All you have is FUD anymore. Starting to admit is  not the act of admitting.

FUD and MSM lies is how Biden will "win" the election, not through any actual sort of legitimate vote count. Trump has enough litigation going now that this thing is going to drag out and probably be decided by the Supreme Court. Anyone who says otherwise is just drinking the Kool-Aid.

I particularly like how the MSM is trying to gaslight everyone into thinking it's all over, and there are no open investigations into voter fraud. Almost like they're complicit...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 02:38:10 pm
FUD and MSM lies is how Biden will "win" the election, not through any actual sort of legitimate vote count. Trump has enough litigation going now that this thing is going to drag out and probably be decided by the Supreme Court. Anyone who says otherwise is just drinking the Kool-Aid.

I particularly like how the MSM is trying to gaslight everyone into thinking it's all over, and there are no open investigations into voter fraud. Almost like they're complicit...
Well, at least that's a concrete prediction that will be confirmed or not within a month or so. It's possible that something related to the election will reach the Supreme Court, but I don't foresee a case like Florida in 2000 where the Supreme Court decides on the election result. I'm fine to wait and see what happens.

Also, Brad, you had a previous claim that 90% turnout among registered voters was ludicrous, but you never answered about my clarification. Could I ask again? It seems to me that 90% among registered voters is normal, not ludicrous.

Debunked by Polifact and Snopes. Someone was comparing 2020 vote totals to 2018 registration; the total registered before the 2020 election was higher than the votes, and Wisconsin allows registration at the polling place.
Even using the "reported" numbers, that's still like a 90% turnout...which is fucking ludicrous if you know anything about elections.

Brad, I think you may be confusing turnout among *eligible* voters and turnout among *registered* voters. For example, in 2016, there were 157 million registered voters and 137 million votes. That's 87%. An individual swing state with 90% is not at all ludicrous.

The more commonly reported number is turnout among *eligible* voters. For example, nationally there were 231 million eligible voters in 2016, which is a turnout of 59%. A turnout of 90% among *eligible* voters would be suspicious, I agree. But that's not the case here.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 02:46:32 pm
All you have is FUD anymore. Starting to admit is  not the act of admitting.

FUD and MSM lies is how Biden will "win" the election, not through any actual sort of legitimate vote count. Trump has enough litigation going now that this thing is going to drag out and probably be decided by the Supreme Court. Anyone who says otherwise is just drinking the Kool-Aid.

I particularly like how the MSM is trying to gaslight everyone into thinking it's all over, and there are no open investigations into voter fraud. Almost like they're complicit...

Anyone who says otherwise is simply better at mathematics than you.

If you max out the allegations of fraud with any evidence, and just assume all those votes are Trump votes (which of course they are not), it does not add up to enough to change the result.

That's what the White House realized last night. It's what an overwhelming majority of the nation will realize in a matter of a couple weeks.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 06, 2020, 02:48:34 pm
Some outlets are calling this for Biden.  It looks like there was some fuckery in PA.  Let’s see if Biden wins GA, AZ or NV.  At that point Trump really has nothing. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 02:50:01 pm
Some outlets are calling this for Biden.  It looks like there was some fuckery in PA.  Let’s see if Biden wins GA, AZ or NV.  At that point Trump really has nothing.

The problem is the "allegations of fuckery in Pennsylvania" are over less than a couple thousand votes. Biden's margin is so much larger than that in Pennsylvania that they're like Bob Dornan's old claims of fraud in the election he lost. They will get a "So...you think you lost by slightly less than you lost by?"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on November 06, 2020, 02:53:31 pm
Greetings!

It is boggling to think this country will swallow the fucking Marxists defrauding the election to gain power and overthrow our Republic. Biden and Kamala? The idea that this election would be close is absurd.

The country wants to be on their knees and plough-fucked in the ass by Marxism, and have their guns taken away so they can be defenseless sheep, sucking down more globalist, cock-sucking Liberal jello.

Fucking pathetic.

This country had better wake the fuck up and fight against the goddamned Marxist takeover of our nation or we are fucked into oblivion. Fuck all the whiny, cock-sucking Liberal Marxist sheep. There won't be another election, for all the mushy middle "reasonable" sheep. If the country can't keep a ticket like Biden and Harris from siezing power, what fucking hope would the country have against an actually stronger, slicker, more competent, and glossier Marxist ticket, like, oh, AOC? This country is going to fucking burn. This is the 11th hour, and the barbarians are at te gates. America is on the edge of plunging into the abyss.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 06, 2020, 02:55:32 pm
The problem is the "allegations of fuckery in Pennsylvania" are over less than a couple thousand votes. Biden's margin is so much larger than that in Pennsylvania that they're like Bob Dornan's old claims of fraud in the election he lost. They will get a "So...you think you lost by slightly less than you lost by?"
I’m not saying it really makes any difference but some of the actions in PA looked like a resistance to transparency.  Fueling the tin foil hattery we’ve been hearing.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 02:58:22 pm
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/trey-trainor-fec-trump-2020-election/2020/11/06/id/995772/

"Chair of the Federal Election Commission Trey Trainor believes voter fraud is taking place in states still counting ballots."

https://twitter.com/i/status/1324793898724720646

Not responding to CCP shills, just gonna post this stuff so people who aren't gaslighting/fucking retarded have a chance to make their own decision.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 02:58:50 pm
Greetings!

It is boggling to think this country will swallow the fucking Marxists defrauding the election to gain power and overthrow our Republic. Biden and Kamala? The idea that this election would be close is absurd.

The country wants to be on their knees and plough-fucked in the ass by Marxism, and have their guns taken away so they can be defenseless sheep, sucking down more globalist, cock-sucking Liberal jello.

Fucking pathetic.

This country had better wake the fuck up and fight against the goddamned Marxist takeover of our nation or we are fucked into oblivion. Fuck all the whiny, cock-sucking Liberal Marxist sheep. There won't be another election, for all the mushy middle "reasonable" sheep. If the country can't keep a ticket like Biden and Harris from siezing power, what fucking hope would the country have against an actually stronger, slicker, more competent, and glossier Marxist ticket, like, oh, AOC? This country is going to fucking burn. This is the 11th hour, and the barbarians are at te gates. America is on the edge of plunging into the abyss.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I recognize a marxist when I see one. My brother is a marxist.

I've watched Biden as a Senator, and his campaigns for President, all my life. Biden is no marxist. Biden is a bog-standard pro-union Democrat. He isn't a social justice warrior and barely tolerates that wing of his party. He isn't a marxist and barely tolerates the AOC's of his party. Biden isn't a barbarian at the gate - he's the same bog standard Democrat that has run for President for your entire adult life.

But it's the internet. And so hyperbole reigns supreme. So we get allegations of the world ending. And in four years when the world has not ended and there is another election, I am sure you and others will again make the claim that the world is about to end if he wins reelection. Despite the fact that nothing much happened for the four prior years with Biden as President which would suggest the world would end.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 03:01:10 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By7yNZsa8x0

"There is no election fraud in PA!"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 06, 2020, 03:04:47 pm
I sense butthurt.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 03:05:27 pm
You have to be rather unhinged to call Biden a marxist. No, Biden will fuck us in the ass by bringing back TPP and opening the floods of outsourcing once more.

All the people who wanted free shit (Berniebros) are in for a rude awakening because we are back to corporatist bullshit if senile Joe wins. They should have voted for Trump, but to them making sure you respect snowflake pronouns is more important than making a living. They may still survive their stupidity if the remaining votes trend Trump. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 06, 2020, 03:09:21 pm
I recognize a marxist when I see one. My brother is a marxist.

I've watched Biden as a Senator, and his campaigns for President, all my life. Biden is no marxist. Biden is a bog-standard pro-union Democrat. He isn't a social justice warrior and barely tolerates that wing of his party. He isn't a marxist and barely tolerates the AOC's of his party. Biden isn't a barbarian at the gate - he's the same bog standard Democrat that has run for President for your entire adult life.

But it's the internet. And so hyperbole reigns supreme. So we get allegations of the world ending. And in four years when the world has not ended and there is another election, I am sure you and others will again make the claim that the world is about to end if he wins reelection. Despite the fact that nothing much happened for the four prior years with Biden as President which would suggest the world would end.

Yup. It is amazing how unhinged conservatives get with their fear of Marxism, seeing it even in the most corporate/liberal/warhawkish politicians like Biden.

People also don't understand the difference between Marxist ideas as they pertain to economics, and wokist ideology, which is a more recent development. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: KingCheops on November 06, 2020, 03:12:47 pm
I recognize a marxist when I see one. My brother is a marxist.

I've watched Biden as a Senator, and his campaigns for President, all my life. Biden is no marxist. Biden is a bog-standard pro-union Democrat. He isn't a social justice warrior and barely tolerates that wing of his party. He isn't a marxist and barely tolerates the AOC's of his party. Biden isn't a barbarian at the gate - he's the same bog standard Democrat that has run for President for your entire adult life.

But it's the internet. And so hyperbole reigns supreme. So we get allegations of the world ending. And in four years when the world has not ended and there is another election, I am sure you and others will again make the claim that the world is about to end if he wins reelection. Despite the fact that nothing much happened for the four prior years with Biden as President which would suggest the world would end.

EDIT:  To your second point most people don't get the difference between the two.  My dad's an old school card carrying Trotskyite whereas my cousin is a graduate in Critical Theory.  They both think each other's politics is crap but from my point of view they both look the same just with Class versus Race as the dividing line.

Yup. It is amazing how unhinged conservatives get with their fear of Marxism, seeing it even in the most corporate/liberal/warhawkish politicians like Biden.

People also don't understand the difference between Marxist ideas as they pertain to economics, and wokist ideology, which is a more recent development.

It's not about Biden being a Marxist.  He's pretty clearly your standard Kleptocrat.  The issue is the struggle going on in the Democrat party between the actual Marxists and the Centrists.  See the freakout in the caucus call for an example of that.  We just don't know who's going to be pulling Biden's strings right now because he's pretty clearly not all there anymore.

Honestly a strong move back to Corporatist pillaging and neo-feudalism is not such a great path either.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 06, 2020, 03:13:53 pm
Marxist, or not he is a paid shill for China.  Lives will be ruined because of Biden which that would had been prevented if they just stuck to Trump.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 03:20:09 pm
Marxist, or not he is a paid shill for China.  Lives will be ruined because of Biden which that would had been prevented if they just stuck to Trump.

I agree that Biden isn't a Marxist, but he certainly is a paid crony for China, that's indisputable by anyone who isn't a fucking moron but we've already seen how many there are posting in this thread, so whatever. I doubt Biden even knows his own name half the time at this point, he's just a vessel to install the actual Marxists, aka AOC, Harris, etc.

That said, I find it amusing that no matter how many incidences of fraud are shown, the goalposts move further and further away...sorry, shills, this isn't going to be over anytime soon.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 06, 2020, 03:27:35 pm
It's not about Biden being a Marxist.  He's pretty clearly your standard Kleptocrat.  The issue is the struggle going on in the Democrat party between the actual Marxists and the Centrists.  See the freakout in the caucus call for an example of that.  We just don't know who's going to be pulling Biden's strings right now because he's pretty clearly not all there anymore.

Honestly a strong move back to Corporatist pillaging and neo-feudalism is not such a great path either.

I think its pretty clear that Biden is an establishment candidate, through and through, which means his strings will be pulled by CEOs and Wall Street and neo-liberalism in general. He's going to serve the same old neo-liberal agenda and give only surface level lip-service to progressives, which means that progressives have to pressure him and continue to work on down-ballot positions.

What you call "actual Marxists" are what others call progressives, and incorporate elements of socialism, but not in the scary Stalinist way Fox drones imagine. Right-wingers confuse and conflate Stalinist USSR with Medicare for All, mainly due to ignorance - because they get their "info" from Fox et al. I'm guessing they think that Western Europe, Canada, Japan, and every other country that has socialized health care are "Marxists."

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: myleftnut on November 06, 2020, 03:30:10 pm
Right.  I would like to not lose my life savings if I develop a serious illness.  We are there with only a few industrialized nations that don’t have a fair medical system.  Nobody with a brain is asking for all that other commie shit.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 03:30:29 pm
Some anonymous video from a nobody constitutes proof now? How is that any better than being put on trial on mere allegations of sexual misconduct?  LOL

once again proving y'all just another side of the same hysterical coin.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 06, 2020, 03:33:54 pm
Some anonymous video from a nobody constitutes proof now? How is that any better than being put on trial on mere allegations of sexual misconduct?  LOL

once again proving y'all just another side of the same hysterical coin.

But he's got a voice disguiser! That makes it legit.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 03:35:59 pm
So now Michigan GOP chair and chair of the FEC are "anonymous people".

Guess we'll throw those posters into the "fucking moron" crowd as well.

Also, "a 'whistleblower' familiar with the matter overheard a conversation that someone else had that implicates Trump in something!" = 100% PROOF
An actual whistleblower on camera = nothingburger

You clowns are laughably retarded.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 03:45:03 pm
Gee, Ronna won't even produce evidence. All she has is allegations.

And if you mean Weintraub when you mention the FEC as if it's backing Trump, you've got shit for brains. Better log off and save yourself some more embarrassment.

Quote
Also, "a 'whistleblower' familiar with the matter overheard a conversation that someone else had that implicates Trump in something!" = 100% PROOF
An actual whistleblower on camera = nothingburger

LOL, so because SJW idiots do that, you're going to show your own idiocy by doing the same. Oh wow, that makes total sense!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 06, 2020, 03:47:02 pm
But it is an INSIDER. It says so. And best of all, it is Project Veritas. How legit can you get?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: HappyDaze on November 06, 2020, 04:00:36 pm
sorry, shills, this isn't going to be over anytime soon.
Thank goodness for that; way too many comedies die off too quickly.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 04:02:32 pm
Marxist, or not he is a paid shill for China.  Lives will be ruined because of Biden which that would had been prevented if they just stuck to Trump.

I agree that Biden isn't a Marxist, but he certainly is a paid crony for China, that's indisputable by anyone who isn't a fucking moron but we've already seen how many there are posting in this thread, so whatever. I doubt Biden even knows his own name half the time at this point, he's just a vessel to install the actual Marxists, aka AOC, Harris, etc.

That said, I find it amusing that no matter how many incidences of fraud are shown, the goalposts move further and further away...sorry, shills, this isn't going to be over anytime soon.

I have the same goalpost I have always had.

Your evidence of fraud must exceed the number of votes you'd need to change the election result.

The sum total of the actual evidence, as opposed to shady anonymous youtube videos from obviously biased sources wearing tinfoil hats with no hard evidence but lots of click-begging, is significantly less than the vote is turning out to be, across so many states.

That's it. That's the line. Show me not fraud, but fraud which amounts to a difference in the election. The rest is just "shit we should fix prior to any future elections" and not in fact a reason to toss out the legit votes which indicate Biden did win.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 04:04:55 pm
So now Michigan GOP chair and chair of the FEC are "anonymous people".



Neither the Michigan GOP chair, nor the chair of the FEC, have alleged fraud in quantities which would result in Trump winning in Pennsylvania. If you think they have, show me.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 04:08:13 pm
https://www.inquirer.com/news/voter-fraud-philadelphia-ward-leader-judge-of-elections-domenick-demuro-guilty-plea-20200521.html

From May...SURELY this wouldn't happen again!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 06, 2020, 04:12:16 pm
There’s no point in trying to prove a NeverTrumper wrong

But this assessment of their potency is a fun read

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sirota-lincoln-project-election-efforts-to-swing-gop-votes-from-trump-epic-failure/ar-BB1aLJWE?ocid=msedgdhp
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 04:12:55 pm
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/05/lawsuit-at-least-21k-dead-people-on-pennsylvania-voter-rolls/

"Look that is just a small amount of fraud! You have to SHOW ME MORE FRAUD!!!!!"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 04:21:32 pm
And even more evidence of fraud.....

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?fbclid=IwAR12FUZ3CUSi2ok-jNRl4tqFFDSue1lsR1MuEnkSImAdLUz7fr22QHwT5X8
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 04:23:06 pm
And even more evidence of fraud.....

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?fbclid=IwAR12FUZ3CUSi2ok-jNRl4tqFFDSue1lsR1MuEnkSImAdLUz7fr22QHwT5X8

Already posted that link, but it's only 6k votes or something, not enough to actually change the outcome so it doesn't count.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 04:29:49 pm
And even more evidence of fraud.....

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?fbclid=IwAR12FUZ3CUSi2ok-jNRl4tqFFDSue1lsR1MuEnkSImAdLUz7fr22QHwT5X8

Already posted that link, but it's only 6k votes or something, not enough to actually change the outcome so it doesn't count.

Oh, sorry. I was amazed at the fact that 47 counties in MI used that same flawed software.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 04:29:58 pm
LOL, like there are no cases of Republican election fraud ever. Please bitch.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 04:33:04 pm
LOL, like there are no cases of Republican election fraud ever. Please bitch.

Took long enough for the, "LOL EVERYONE DOES IT!".

Are you actually Hillary Clinton?

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 04:33:37 pm
Now, that glitch is worth looking into. Now you're talking something real vs some imagined nefarious plot.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 04:34:03 pm
https://www.inquirer.com/news/voter-fraud-philadelphia-ward-leader-judge-of-elections-domenick-demuro-guilty-plea-20200521.html

From May...SURELY this wouldn't happen again!

"DeMuro inflated vote totals by adding 27 fraudulent ballots in the primary election, 40 votes in May 2015, and 46 in 2016"

So let's say this same thing happened this time. You need to make up TENS OF THOUSANDS TO POTENTIALLY OVER A HUNDRED THOUSAND VOTES. And it's all over the place rather than in just one place. And it's in many states rather than just one state.

There isn't enough evidence of fraud in quantities to show Biden didn't win.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 04:35:10 pm
lol, how bitchmade. fool talks like democrats are the only ones with a history of cheating and then changes goalposts.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 04:35:49 pm
And even more evidence of fraud.....

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?fbclid=IwAR12FUZ3CUSi2ok-jNRl4tqFFDSue1lsR1MuEnkSImAdLUz7fr22QHwT5X8

Already posted that link, but it's only 6k votes or something, not enough to actually change the outcome so it doesn't count.

It counts as an allegation of fraud. It does not count as an allegation of fraud in quantities sufficient to change the result of the election. That's the difference. That's what you need to show: not fraud, but enough fraud to have Trump be the winner. That evidence does not appear to exist. This is math, not emotions.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 04:43:01 pm
It counts as an allegation of fraud. It does not count as an allegation of fraud in quantities sufficient to change the result of the election. That's the difference. That's what you need to show: not fraud, but enough fraud to have Trump be the winner. That evidence does not appear to exist. This is math, not emotions.


This seems solid enough to really and urgently look into. Seems there is finally some proof of irregularities that may or may not be fraud, but regardless may be significant in the outcome. That's a whole county going to Trump, and they say there are 47. Wouldn't surprise me if this made a difference in who takes the state. 
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 06, 2020, 04:49:55 pm
Right.  I would like to not lose my life savings if I develop a serious illness.  We are there with only a few industrialized nations that don’t have a fair medical system.  Nobody with a brain is asking for all that other commie shit.

As someone who lives in one of those industrialised countries with a fair medical system, what that means in practice is that you go on a fair waiting list until you get your fair treatment.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 06, 2020, 04:52:10 pm
LOL, like there are no cases of Republican election fraud ever. Please bitch.

The Russians only get a chance to earn their sweet election fraud money every four years, dont take this away from them!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 04:57:05 pm
The Russians only get a chance to earn their sweet election fraud money every four years, dont take this away from them!

We're WAY past Russians. Apparently they decided not to commit any fraud in this election and, in fact, this is the least fraudulent election in history. How dare you!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 05:12:55 pm
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/following-repair-technical-glitch-michigan-county-flips-back-trump

Only 46 more counties to check!

"But that's only a gain of about 5500 votes! I NEED YOU TO SHOW ME WIDESPREAD VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!!"
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Shasarak on November 06, 2020, 05:16:15 pm
The Russians only get a chance to earn their sweet election fraud money every four years, dont take this away from them!

We're WAY past Russians. Apparently they decided not to commit any fraud in this election and, in fact, this is the least fraudulent election in history. How dare you!

So hang on, the Russians helped Trump to win last time and this time he asked them to stand back and stand by?

 :-
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 05:17:18 pm
So hang on, the Russians helped Trump to win last time and this time he asked them to stand back and stand by?

 :-

No, I think what happened is TRUMPBUX ran out so Putin decided to go bear hunting instead.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 06, 2020, 08:17:35 pm
But it is an INSIDER. It says so. And best of all, it is Project Veritas. How legit can you get?

You do you know that Veritas is backed up by the courts?  Seriously they won all of their court cases.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 06, 2020, 08:37:00 pm
But it is an INSIDER. It says so. And best of all, it is Project Veritas. How legit can you get?

You do you know that Veritas is backed up by the courts?  Seriously they won all of their court cases.

Good point actually. Having seen some interviews with them, PV seems to be a pretty legit operation. Their "deceptively edited videos" seem lees deceptive than those of the mainstream media.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Snowman0147 on November 06, 2020, 08:46:02 pm
But it is an INSIDER. It says so. And best of all, it is Project Veritas. How legit can you get?

You do you know that Veritas is backed up by the courts?  Seriously they won all of their court cases.

Good point actually. Having seen some interviews with them, PV seems to be a pretty legit operation. Their "deceptively edited videos" seem lees deceptive than those of the mainstream media.

They have everything to lose if they lie.  Seriously there is no incentive for Project Veritas to lie.  In fact there is every incentive to actually be honest.  Project Veritas survives on its honesty.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 08:56:49 pm
Turns out a bunch of these "fraud videos" are fakes. That would explain why the White House has not filed suit based on a single one of these youtube and tiktok videos of supposed fraud - they're not real. But, they do make for sweet clicks for the political rags:

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/eric-trump-keeps-falling-for-fake-ballot-hoaxes/

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 08:58:34 pm
Oh yeah Project Veritas depends on their reliability...like literally the complete fraud they posted JUST LAST MONTH. Dumbasses.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/project-veritas-ilhan-omar.html

The short of it, Project Veritas was taken in by a totally fraudulent claim in a video in September. Liban Osman, subject of Project Veritas alleged voter fraud story, tells @LydenFOX9 he was offered $10K by Omar Jamal to say he was collecting ballots for Congresswoman @IlhanMN.

So yeah, not a good source to be claiming they are a shining example of truthfulness and credibility.

The "dead people voted in Pennsylvania" stuff is fraudulent claim too:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions

Finally, the Project Veritas Michigan "postage backdating" claim was debunked the same day it came out (the date on the envelope is irrelevant to whether or not it is counted since it had to physically be there on time to be counted):

https://www.mediamatters.org/sinclair-broadcast-group/sinclair-broadcast-group-spreads-debunked-project-veritas-disinformation

I seriously hate sore losers. I hated it when Democrats did it in 2000 and then in 2004 again, and I hate it now that Republicans are doing it in 2020. Same bullshit, different tribe.

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 06, 2020, 09:08:13 pm
One county in Michigan flipped 5500 votes?
47 other counties use the same software?

47*5000=A lot more than Trump lost by.

Time to recount Michigan and verify the machine glitch and the Post Office Investigation before anyone calls anything.  There’s a chance the Post Office thing was local, but with three other states showing the “Michigan Pattern” it’s worth looking into.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 06, 2020, 09:16:08 pm
One county in Michigan flipped 5500 votes?
47 other counties use the same software?

47*5000=A lot more than Trump lost by.

Time to recount Michigan and verify the machine glitch and the Post Office Investigation before anyone calls anything.  There’s a chance the Post Office thing was local, but with three other states showing the “Michigan Pattern” it’s worth looking into.

They didn't though. The entire claim is complete bullshit.

Which is why you see no lawsuit being filed right now based on that allegation.

You're being a sucker.

Here are four more claims which were already debunked:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54811410

And yet more debunked claims.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/06/why-some-michigan-election-conspiracy-theories-dont-add-up/6186067002/


Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: ArrozConLeche on November 06, 2020, 10:09:51 pm
They really should check the software updates of those systems in Michigan. If it's that easy for someone to mess it up, it could easily have happened at other counties. I doubt that it would take them too long to check, and the upside is that people would feel more confident.

It really would be a dick move not to do so.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 06, 2020, 10:14:23 pm
One county in Michigan flipped 5500 votes?
47 other counties use the same software?

47*5000=A lot more than Trump lost by.

Time to recount Michigan and verify the machine glitch and the Post Office Investigation before anyone calls anything.  There’s a chance the Post Office thing was local, but with three other states showing the “Michigan Pattern” it’s worth looking into.
I agree that it's worth looking into possible problems in the software after the Antrim county results. However, as far as I can see, no one has claimed that this was fraud. Antrim is a Republican-dominated county with conservative officials, and the Republican officials say it was an error. In general, I agree things should be investigated. And yes, if every county had the same error with the same effect, then it would make a difference. But this was an error that was found and caught.

Here is what I read so far about the investigation:

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/antrim-county-vote-glitch-software-update/6194745002/

Quote
A failure to update software was the reason for a computer glitch that caused massive errors in unofficial election results reported from Antrim county, the Michigan Department of State said late Friday.

"The erroneous reporting of unofficial results from Antrim county was a result of accidental error on the part of the Antrim County clerk," the state agency that oversees elections said in a news release.

There was no problem with the voting machines or vote totals, which were preserved on tapes printed from the tabulators, the state said. The problem occurred when the totals by precinct were combined into candidate county-wide totals for transfer to the state, using election management system software, the state agency said in a news release.

"All ballots were properly tabulated. However, the clerk accidentally did not update the software used to collect voting machine data and report unofficial results."

State officials did not immediately respond to questions about whether they track when and how local officials update their election-related software or whether local officials are required to report needed updates to the state, once they are completed.

But they said any such errors in any county would be caught during the canvassing process, before results are declared official, when boards composed of two Democrats and two Republicans compare the numbers on the tapes printed from the tabulators to the unofficial results that were reported to the state.

In the Twitter thread, someone posted video of programmer Clint Curtis - who testified he was hired in 2000 to make touchscreen voting machines glitch and miscount votes. For context, though, he testified he was hired by *Republican* congressman Tom Feeney, who denied the allegations, which were never proven.

Even though there is no evidence that such a program ever was created or went into effect, I do have concerns about purely electronic voting, and would prefer to maintain paper ballots. With a paper trail, you can still count using software, but you can recount by hand to confirm. If there are fraudulent ballots, they can be found and analyzed for evidence.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 10:36:26 pm
One of the biggest takeaways in this election is Trump was up in almost every demographic, except white men. He did better among LGBT+ voters, among women voters, among black voters, and among hispanic voters
Yeah, it's interesting. Will the Republican party gradually move to becoming the party of the diverse working class? Well, the Democrats were once the party of segregation, so why not...

What I will say is a good sign for the US is the increased voter participation this time. As The Dictator's Handbook noted, the only real difference between a dictator and a Prime Minister or President is how many people they have to please to stay in power - but that makes all the difference. If I have to please a few Generals and their men I don't have to think much about the public good, if I have to please 100 million people, I do.

So the broader the participation, the better it is for the public good... eventually, anyway.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Brad on November 06, 2020, 11:13:39 pm
https://www.dailywire.com/news/texas-charges-social-worker-with-134-felony-counts-involving-election-fraud

There's no such thing as voter fraud...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 06, 2020, 11:26:20 pm
Oh yeah Project Veritas depends on their reliability...like literally the complete fraud they posted JUST LAST MONTH. Dumbasses.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/project-veritas-ilhan-omar.html

The short of it, Project Veritas was taken in by a totally fraudulent claim in a video in September. Liban Osman, subject of Project Veritas alleged voter fraud story, tells @LydenFOX9 he was offered $10K by Omar Jamal to say he was collecting ballots for Congresswoman @IlhanMN.

So yeah, not a good source to be claiming they are a shining example of truthfulness and credibility.

The "dead people voted in Pennsylvania" stuff is fraudulent claim too:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions

Finally, the Project Veritas Michigan "postage backdating" claim was debunked the same day it came out (the date on the envelope is irrelevant to whether or not it is counted since it had to physically be there on time to be counted):

https://www.mediamatters.org/sinclair-broadcast-group/sinclair-broadcast-group-spreads-debunked-project-veritas-disinformation

I seriously hate sore losers. I hated it when Democrats did it in 2000 and then in 2004 again, and I hate it now that Republicans are doing it in 2020. Same bullshit, different tribe.
You quoted the New York Times and Media Matters! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA! I take it you're quite the troll here! I honestly LOL'd! Good job! Keep it up!

Greetings!

It is boggling to think this country will swallow the fucking Marxists defrauding the election to gain power and overthrow our Republic. Biden and Kamala? The idea that this election would be close is absurd.

The country wants to be on their knees and plough-fucked in the ass by Marxism, and have their guns taken away so they can be defenseless sheep, sucking down more globalist, cock-sucking Liberal jello.

Fucking pathetic.

This country had better wake the fuck up and fight against the goddamned Marxist takeover of our nation or we are fucked into oblivion. Fuck all the whiny, cock-sucking Liberal Marxist sheep. There won't be another election, for all the mushy middle "reasonable" sheep. If the country can't keep a ticket like Biden and Harris from siezing power, what fucking hope would the country have against an actually stronger, slicker, more competent, and glossier Marxist ticket, like, oh, AOC? This country is going to fucking burn. This is the 11th hour, and the barbarians are at te gates. America is on the edge of plunging into the abyss.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Don't blame the people for being oblivious. Most do not understand what Pychological Warfare looks like, or sounds like. All they know, all they've ever known, is what they have been told. As you can see from the bullshit I've taken (if you paid attention), then you should know that ANYONE who questions them or even PROVES THEM WRONG is immediately issued insults, attempts are made to discredit them, and are essentially told to prove themselves by those who wish them harm. "SHUT UP! I'm smarter than you. SHUT UP! I'm faster than you. SHUT UP! I'm going to kill you." If you fall into the psychwarfare trap, then they have you. Which is why I ignore them. They are not worth nor worthy to be replied to. They ARE the Philosophical Zombies. And they will one day regret what they have done. These are the armies, not of flesh and blood, but of the spirit of antichrist. Remember, there are many antichrists. Don't fall into this trap they have set.
https://www.rand.org/topics/psychological-warfare.html

Good luck, my brother!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 06, 2020, 11:33:49 pm
Sworn affidavit of Robert Cushman

Quote
AFFIDAVIT - Draft
The Affiant, Robert Cushman, being first duly sworn, hereby deposes and states as follows:

My name is Robert Cushman.  I am an adult citizen and resident of the State of Michigan.

I served and was trained to be a poll challenger for the November 2020 election in Detroit, Michigan.

During my observations of the normal processing of ballots on November 4th between about 0745 AM and 0830 AM I was substantially obstructed from performing my challenger duties of observing and making notes at Board Number 31. The persons involved either directly or indirectly involved: 1. A worker , 2. A supervisor , 3 an unknown  person with no credentials, 4 a Democratic Challenger with credentials and one of the AVCB leaders .

On Wednesday, November 4, 2020, Detroit election officials told us that they were going to process military ballots last. I did my best to try to observe the processing/duplication of the military ballots.

On November 4, 2020, I was surprised to see numerous new boxes of ballots arrive at the TCF Center in the evening. I first noticed these boxes in the distribution area after many of the military ballots had been distributed and processed.  I estimate these boxes contained several thousand new ballots when they appeared.

The main list of persons who had registered to vote on or before November 1, 2020, was listed on an electronic poll book, often referred to as the QVF. As I understand it, the Supplemental Sheets were the lists of persons who had registered to vote on November 2, 2020 or November 3, 2020.

I observed that none of the names on these new ballots were on the QVF or the Supplemental Sheets.

I saw the computer operators at several counting boards manually adding the names and addresses of these thousands of ballots to the QVF system.

When I asked what the possible justification was to counting ballots from unknown, unverified “persons”, I was told by election supervisors that the Wayne County Clerk’s Office had “checked them out.”

I challenged not one ballet, but the entire process as the names were not in the Poll Books or Supplemental Sheets and because the DOB’s were all wrong, all being marked as 01-01-1900.

An Election Supervisor near board number #86 advised me to go to the podium of election officials and ask one of them to help me. I did, and I enlisted the help of one of the leaders, a young man named Anthony Miller.

Mr. Miller walked me back to board number #86 and asked what I wanted the challenge to say. I said that I did not want to challenge just one ballot, but the entire process, as I was witnessing several thousand ballots inputted illegally. 

Mr. Miller advised the computer operator what to type in as a challenge so that it was part of the Official Record in the Poll Book for Board Number #86. 

I challenged the authority and the authenticity of all of these ballots that were being processed late with absolutely no accompanying documentation, no corresponding name in the QVF, and no corresponding name in the Supplemental List.

Every ballot was being fraudulently and manually entered into the Electronic Poll Book (QVF), as having been born on January 1, 1900.  This “last” batch of ballots was processed in the 8 PM to 10 PM time frame.

When I asked about this impossibility of each ballot having the same birthday occurring in 1900, I was told that was the instruction that came down from the Wayne County Clerk’s office. 

Mr. Miller was very clear about these late ballots and that the instructions were coming from the Wayne County Clerk’s office.

I was surprised and disappointed at the preponderance of dishonesty, irregularities, and fraudulent tactics at the November 3, 2020 election at the TCF Center.

The above information is true to the best of my information, knowledge, and belief.

Further affiant says not.

                        Robert Cushman
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 06, 2020, 11:50:13 pm
Link for that, Jeff?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jhkim on November 07, 2020, 12:11:46 am
As you can see from the bullshit I've taken (if you paid attention), then you should know that ANYONE who questions them or even PROVES THEM WRONG is immediately issued insults, attempts are made to discredit them, and are essentially told to prove themselves by those who wish them harm. "SHUT UP! I'm smarter than you. SHUT UP! I'm faster than you. SHUT UP! I'm going to kill you." If you fall into the psychwarfare trap, then they have you. Which is why I ignore them. They are not worth nor worthy to be replied to. They ARE the Philosophical Zombies. And they will one day regret what they have done. These are the armies, not of flesh and blood, but of the spirit of antichrist. Remember, there are many antichrists. Don't fall into this trap they have set.
Hi, consolcwby. I had some replies for you back in reply #613 and #615, but you haven't replied. I guess you are ignoring me as one of the antichrists. Maybe from your point of view, I am an antichrist - but I am not telling you to shut up, nor am I trying to kill you.

My church is currently holding services online, and everyone is welcome. Services are 10:30AM on Sundays. I'd invite you to come by and decide for yourself.

https://www.uufrc.org/

Perhaps you consider this just more of the psychological warfare, but I don't want to insult or hurt you, and I would genuinely hope we could communicate without such rancor.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 07, 2020, 01:05:14 am
Oh yeah Project Veritas depends on their reliability...like literally the complete fraud they posted JUST LAST MONTH. Dumbasses.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/project-veritas-ilhan-omar.html

The short of it, Project Veritas was taken in by a totally fraudulent claim in a video in September. Liban Osman, subject of Project Veritas alleged voter fraud story, tells @LydenFOX9 he was offered $10K by Omar Jamal to say he was collecting ballots for Congresswoman @IlhanMN.

So yeah, not a good source to be claiming they are a shining example of truthfulness and credibility.

The "dead people voted in Pennsylvania" stuff is fraudulent claim too:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions

Finally, the Project Veritas Michigan "postage backdating" claim was debunked the same day it came out (the date on the envelope is irrelevant to whether or not it is counted since it had to physically be there on time to be counted):

https://www.mediamatters.org/sinclair-broadcast-group/sinclair-broadcast-group-spreads-debunked-project-veritas-disinformation

I seriously hate sore losers. I hated it when Democrats did it in 2000 and then in 2004 again, and I hate it now that Republicans are doing it in 2020. Same bullshit, different tribe.

A lot of this has been addressed by Project Veritas and others already.
Are you also of the opinion that the recent riots were coming from the right wing?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 07, 2020, 05:39:55 am
You can always trust a Lincoln project man to take the 2020 NYT at face value.  "DEBUNKED!!!  The NYT would never lie, just like Philadelphia would never commit the mass election fraud it's been known for, for decades, in this cycle where nothing much at all was at stake"

And soon the LP will learn what their new allies think they've really earned.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/aoc-calls-on-lincoln-project-to-take-the-l-and-give-fundraising-to-grassroots-organizers

Enjoy your mirage victory until it evaporates, copperheads.  We don't need you, and no one wants you.  This isn't going to stand, and we can pick up 10 voters for every LP man that goes sniveling home to Nancy Pelosi, just by ditching: stupid foreign wars, an economy based on pushing papers around on desks, and COC trade deals.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that LP's $67 million didn't mostly go to paying the necessary grease to make this fraud happen, including running interference (or more) via their alphabet agency members.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: jeff37923 on November 07, 2020, 07:41:42 am
Link for that, Jeff?

Came off of Larry Correia's Facebook feed. I'm looking, but the link seems to have been removed.

Take with a grain of salt then.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 07, 2020, 11:43:57 am
What I will say is a good sign for the US is the increased voter participation this time. As The Dictator's Handbook noted, the only real difference between a dictator and a Prime Minister or President is how many people they have to please to stay in power - but that makes all the difference. If I have to please a few Generals and their men I don't have to think much about the public good, if I have to please 100 million people, I do.

So the broader the participation, the better it is for the public good... eventually, anyway.
I don't agree. Plenty of dictators have been voted into power, and dictators and democratically elected representatives both need public support.  If anything, dictators are more sensitive to public opinion, because they know it's unlikely they'll be able to make a graceful exit. If they're overthrown, they'll end up in jail, or dead. That's why dictators hold so desperately to power, and even those who allow some kind of sham voting always make sure they control the means of communication, like seizing control of the media, making dissent illegal, setting up secret police and informer networks so people can't safely express their true beliefs, rewriting the official histories, and so on. They want to control the narrative by controlling what people can learn and say.

That's one of the key differences between democracy and a dictatorship: Democracy provides for a peaceful transition of power. This trait is shared with monarchies, though republics provide for more regular transitions, and these typically happen over a much shorter period of time. But the will of the governed? That's only a feature of democracies insofar as they tend to be more transparent and allow freer discourse.

The problem is public sentiment remains a crude tool and a poor check on the power of the political class. It tends to react based on outrage, which means it only cares about extreme or sensationalized events, and it has a very short attention span. This means it makes decisions based on little information, and can be easily appeased, or fooled by redirecting its rage onto scapegoats. It's oblivious to more subtle abuses, allowing the whole system to be quickly suborned by special interests. The public is a hibernating bear the ruling elite don't want to prod too hard, not a good manager.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 07, 2020, 11:56:27 am
Oh yeah Project Veritas depends on their reliability...like literally the complete fraud they posted JUST LAST MONTH. Dumbasses.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/project-veritas-ilhan-omar.html

The short of it, Project Veritas was taken in by a totally fraudulent claim in a video in September. Liban Osman, subject of Project Veritas alleged voter fraud story, tells @LydenFOX9 he was offered $10K by Omar Jamal to say he was collecting ballots for Congresswoman @IlhanMN.

So yeah, not a good source to be claiming they are a shining example of truthfulness and credibility.

The "dead people voted in Pennsylvania" stuff is fraudulent claim too:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions

Finally, the Project Veritas Michigan "postage backdating" claim was debunked the same day it came out (the date on the envelope is irrelevant to whether or not it is counted since it had to physically be there on time to be counted):

https://www.mediamatters.org/sinclair-broadcast-group/sinclair-broadcast-group-spreads-debunked-project-veritas-disinformation

I seriously hate sore losers. I hated it when Democrats did it in 2000 and then in 2004 again, and I hate it now that Republicans are doing it in 2020. Same bullshit, different tribe.

A lot of this has been addressed by Project Veritas and others already.
Are you also of the opinion that the recent riots were coming from the right wing?

1. PV isn't credible. Oh they've "addressed" it? Funny, you didn't link to anything. Because we both know their "addressing it" was to be dismissive.
2. No, of course not.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 07, 2020, 11:58:08 am
You can always trust a Lincoln project man to take the 2020 NYT at face value.  "DEBUNKED!!!  The NYT would never lie, just like Philadelphia would never commit the mass election fraud it's been known for, for decades, in this cycle where nothing much at all was at stake"

And soon the LP will learn what their new allies think they've really earned.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/aoc-calls-on-lincoln-project-to-take-the-l-and-give-fundraising-to-grassroots-organizers

Enjoy your mirage victory until it evaporates, copperheads.  We don't need you, and no one wants you.  This isn't going to stand, and we can pick up 10 voters for every LP man that goes sniveling home to Nancy Pelosi, just by ditching: stupid foreign wars, an economy based on pushing papers around on desks, and COC trade deals.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that LP's $67 million didn't mostly go to paying the necessary grease to make this fraud happen, including running interference (or more) via their alphabet agency members.

What are you going to do when Biden is sworn in as President?

Reality will hit you soon. It's hitting Trump already.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 07, 2020, 12:45:09 pm

1. PV isn't credible. Oh they've "addressed" it? Funny, you didn't link to anything. Because we both know their "addressing it" was to be dismissive.
2. No, of course not.

Same with your counter-evidence. It's just this guy saying that they were trying to pay him to say stuff. And yet, he said what he said on camera, without them filming it (they filmed themselves). It is one of the weakest "debunks" I have seen. As others mention, when PV get taken to court, they win.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 07, 2020, 12:54:25 pm
PV have been taken seriously by people like Eric and Bret Weinstein, and you can find videos where they explain several of the things they have exposed. They are frankly more believable right now than NYT, who have been lying about things happening before my own eyes.

Having said that, in the end I think it's pretty clear that Biden is winning this, fraud or no fraud on either side.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: rawma on November 07, 2020, 12:57:10 pm
Congratulations to President-elect Biden!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 07, 2020, 01:06:11 pm
I'm looking forward to finding out what Trueinternationalunderpressure is. I hope it means I get a pony.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mercurius on November 07, 2020, 02:15:34 pm
It's funny how the people yelling "fraud" don't seem to care about voter purges in Georgia in 2019 (200k, mostly black and liberal) or the many thousands of ballots "delayed" or "lost" in the mail on account of Trump's appointee, DeJoy.

Hmm...I wonder why?

Either way, Trump lost. Be butthurt if you must, but this is the process. It is flawed and all sorts of shenanigans happen on both sides. But if you're going to cry foul, at least try to be non-partisan about it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 07, 2020, 03:08:51 pm
It's funny how the people yelling "fraud" don't seem to care about voter purges in Georgia in 2019 (200k, mostly black and liberal) or the many thousands of ballots "delayed" or "lost" in the mail on account of Trump's appointee, DeJoy.

Hmm...I wonder why?
Because in the first case, purging voters who haven't voted in a long time isn't fraud. It isn't even related to fraud.

And in the second case, would a few thousand ballots have made a difference? If not, then that's why most people don't care. You notice nobody is worried about Illinois in this race, the recounts and allegations of fraud that are making the news are all in the swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. That's simply because it's more newsworthy (and there's more incentive to cheat) when the results matter. But regardless of public attention, those sort of allegations should always be investigated, because that's the only way to give the public confidence that democracy is working.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: EOTB on November 07, 2020, 07:10:15 pm
You can always trust a Lincoln project man to take the 2020 NYT at face value.  "DEBUNKED!!!  The NYT would never lie, just like Philadelphia would never commit the mass election fraud it's been known for, for decades, in this cycle where nothing much at all was at stake"

And soon the LP will learn what their new allies think they've really earned.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/aoc-calls-on-lincoln-project-to-take-the-l-and-give-fundraising-to-grassroots-organizers

Enjoy your mirage victory until it evaporates, copperheads.  We don't need you, and no one wants you.  This isn't going to stand, and we can pick up 10 voters for every LP man that goes sniveling home to Nancy Pelosi, just by ditching: stupid foreign wars, an economy based on pushing papers around on desks, and COC trade deals.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that LP's $67 million didn't mostly go to paying the necessary grease to make this fraud happen, including running interference (or more) via their alphabet agency members.

What are you going to do when Biden is sworn in as President?

Reality will hit you soon. It's hitting Trump already.

If that were to happen, I have no idea what the options available would be yet.  So unlike Fox, I don't project.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Hawkwing7423 on November 07, 2020, 07:35:16 pm
Congratulations to President-elect Biden!
LOL, till he has a stroke or gets 25th'ed out or gets arkanicided.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Kyle Aaron on November 07, 2020, 08:51:17 pm
I don't agree. Plenty of dictators have been voted into power
Not really in free and fair elections.

Quote
and dictators and democratically elected representatives both need public support.
Yes and no. There's actual support, then there's not opposing them. For a leader, simply having people not oppose them can be enough, so long as key people support them.

Quote
those who allow some kind of sham voting always make sure they control the means of communication
One of the reasons they allow sham voting is that it reminds their key supporters they're replaceable. A certain amount of social mobility is necessary in any society to make people support that society; people will put up with a pretty awful life if there's even a small hope of it changing.

Imperial China had the civil service exam, in theory anyone could do it and get a job for life, in practice it was the sons of artisans and merchants who had the money to pay for a tutor. Still, every town of any size had a bunch of kids visible going off to school, and some of them after doing the exam went off to the capital and sent money back home. From the late 18th century, though, fewer and fewer family names appeared on the roll - graduates were slipping advanced copies to nephews back home, etc. One day a young man failed the exam, went to Hong Kong and had a nervous breakdown - and while there listened to a German preacher and became convinced he was the brother of Jesus, and ended up leading a rebellion preaching all property in common, etc - the Taiping Rebellion, the bloodiest war in human history until WWII.

A lack of social mobility in a system makes people want to change the system. Sham voting is a process where the commoners can enter the rubber-stamp parliament, which while it has no power as a parliament setting policies for government, the members are all connected to the senior bureaucrats and businesspeople and Generals and so on. So if you want to build a block of apartments or get your son a commission in the army or be able to dump some toxic soil near a school, that member of the People's Grand Parliament is the guy you speak to. They don't have legislative power, but they certainly have the power to get things done.

Every election, some of those guys leave the parliament and some new ones enter it. And some of those who leave the parliament go to the politburo and work with the Dear Leader. And some of the politburo drop out and back into the parliament, etc.

This is, by the by, one of the reasons for regular purges in communist and fascist systems of government, and for kings in the middle ages to go around lopping off the heads of a few nobles - purges create job vacancies, social mobility. Everyone thinks purges are just about fear, and of course they're about fear - but purges create hope. As wikipedia notes,

"The purge of the Red Army and Military Maritime Fleet removed three of five marshals (then equivalent to four-star generals), 13 of 15 army commanders (then equivalent to three-star generals), eight of nine admirals (the purge fell heavily on the Navy, who were suspected of exploiting their opportunities for foreign contacts), 50 of 57 army corps commanders, 154 out of 186 division commanders, 16 of 16 army commissars, and 25 of 28 army corps commissars."

which is to say, Stalin created 269 job vacancies in the senior ranks. That's 269 people who became Generals and Admirals, which also means that 269 others went into their old positions, and so on down the chain of command all the way to some privates becoming corporals. One of the reasons wartime sees such loyalty to The Leader is that all the deaths of commanders create lots of opportunities for promotion, and of course the rapid expansion of the military creates a lot of new positions, too.

Wars are great for social mobility, which is why many failing systems - like Soviet communism, or modern American capitalism - are so keen on starting wars. Peace would mean no promotions, and in fact a lot of retirements.

The more long-lasting systems find more peaceful ways to do it, like the DPRK's elections. One of the reasons people stopped supporting the Soviet Union was that the same group of 20-30 old guys were running things for decades, and they were mostly at peace - the Afghan war wasn't big enough to kill a lot of senior officers or require an expansion of the military. Without genuine elections or purges or wars to create social mobility, nobody had hopes of change any more, so they lost interest.

Quote
But the will of the governed? That's only a feature of democracies insofar as they tend to be more transparent and allow freer discourse.
It's more like this. Let's suppose I am the leader of a city of 100,000 people, each of whom provides me with $1,000 revenue on average, for $100 million in all. What do I do with this money?

Now, if they are all disarmed except for my 100-man Imperial Guard, I can give each of my Imperial Guard $500,000 - for half a million each I can find 1 man willing to shoot the other 999 unarmed protesters if he has some company. I just need to look after those 100 men really well and I can rule the other 99,900, and keep $50 million for myself.

But if I need 50,001 of them to vote for me, giving them $1,000 back isn't going to impress them much, so I can't keep that $50 million spare, I have to give all $100 million back - $2,000 each. Those 50,001 people are only $1,000 better off, though, that may not be enough to convince them, especially if they have to trudge along dirt roads and pay for a tutor for their kids and pay doctors and so on out of that. So instead I take that $100 million and spend it on roads and schools and medical clinics. This also doesn't guarantee support but at least after tossing me out at the next election they speak well of me and I might be able to get back in at some later time.

Which is to say, increasing the franchise tends to work to encourage leaders to consider the overall public good more.

This then explains why leaders do things like gerrymandering and voter suppression - if I could get in with just 10,000 of the right voters, I could give them $5,000 each, keep $50 million for myself and still get in. It also explains why opposition parties are against gerrymandering and voter suppression - they just have to get 10,001 people who don't normally vote to get out there and they're in. But of course, once they're in they become less keen on it.

So it's not that dictators can ignore public opinion or whatever. It's that people support you if you reward them, and don't if you don't. The more people whose support you need to get and stay in power, the more likely you are to do things for the public good - not out of altruism, but out of your own self-interest in staying in power.

Longer-term, you need to offer some small hope, at least, of social mobility. That's why Oceania in 1984 had the lottery for the proles, but it's also why it had O'Brien doing purges.

It's no coincidence that decades of stagnant growth for the waged class in the US, combined with people bribing their way into unis, etc, gets you civil unrest. Nor is it a coincidence that the US is involved in Forever Wars. Drumpf pulled out of the Forever Wars so that's why he had to put in tariffs etc, rebuild manufacturing jobs and give the proles some hope. If Biden wants to bin the tariffs he'll have to go to war instead. It's either that or people lose interest in supporting the system and the US goes the way of the SU.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: VisionStorm on November 07, 2020, 08:57:26 pm
The only silver lining in this whole fuckosity is watching JP explain WTF just happened.

Enjoy your Kamala Harris presidency and the impending gulags. :P

Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: sureshot on November 07, 2020, 11:58:48 pm
What gets me is the continual hypocrisy on the left is amazing imo.

Up until Biden was announced the winner Trump had mismanaged the Covid-19 crisis etc..etc. Now that Biden won suddenly so many Biden  supporters while cheering the win have thrown away all sense when it comes to quarantine procedures. What gets me is the anti-Trump supporters "well they are wearing masks" which are help yet when 20+ Biden supporters hugging and kissing and celebrating a mask can only do so much. Sorry this applies to supporters on both sides. Your side is not immune to criticism simply because you are heavily emotionally invested in it.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Aglondir on November 08, 2020, 01:02:43 am
I'm looking forward to finding out what Trueinternationalunderpressure is. I hope it means I get a pony.

It's the Thing.

You know, the Thing!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on November 08, 2020, 01:11:45 am
Greetings!

I read an article that discussed how Biden and Harris are going to tear down the Wall, and totally destroy Trump's immigration policies. No bans, no restrictions, anyone and everyone can just fucking pour into the country. More than 11 million illegal immigrants in the country Biden plans to make citizens during his first 100 days in office.

Globalist, cock-sucking Marxists. Oh, well, Biden isn't a Marxist--he's a moderate.

You fucking drooling moron. If he goes along with Marxists and lets fucking Globalist Marxists fucking run everything, it isn't necessary for Biden to be a card-carrying Marxist. Millions of drooling, brain-fucked idiots are heavily influenced by Marxists goddamned ideology without thinking of themselves as being officially *Marxists*--but that stupid fucking delusion doesn't take anything way from the fact that they are still standing by and helping Marxists fuck everyone else in the ass.

Fucking simple minded jackasses. Learn how Marxism has infiltrated our entire society, from government, to social policy, to education, entertainment, and the media. It's influence is everywhere, and fucking deep, and has only been getting stronger and more pervasive over the whole population at large for decades.

Fucking smug idiots. Learn about how psychological warfare and propaganda works to shift and influence cultures.

I know exactly what the fuck I'm talking about. And I don't give a fuck about some idealistic naïve fuck in some "Democratic Socialist" country that believes socialism is all sweet and fucking dandy. They are still naïve, and have been compromised in varying degrees. If some people love socialism in fucking Europe or elsewhere, well, good for them! That doesn't mean that we here in America need to swallow that shit down!

LENIN said "The Goal of Socialism is Communism. Socialism is but a way station on the way to Communism."

GLOBALISM is deeply Marxist, and embraces Marxism. Globalists--all the cock sucking technocrats and corporate cockroaches some of you try and make distinctions for--guess what? They are just fine with allying with and using Marxism to get what they want. Just because they don't explicitly claim to be or support Marxism doesn't mean they still aren't Marxists. And another thing--Marxism always has an elite, wealthy cream at the top that rules over the hordes of the unwashed masses. Where do you fucking think the Globalist Technocrats see themselves being?

Some of you claim to be educated and sophisticated, but goddamn, some of you can't fucking see the forest before the trees. You try and make all these petty distinctions, that seem to be there on the surface--but totally miss the deeper connections, the deeper motivations, the deeper goals.

And also, the whole mail-in voting fraud? Are you people that fucking brain dead and numb? A commission led by Jimmy Carter 10 years or more back said that mail in voting was rife with fraud and corruption. The fucking New York Times--such an alt-right conservative rag, right? Did an investigation years back where they also said that mail-in voting was fucking corrupt as all fuck. Then, just recently, all over the mainstream, liberal, cock-sucking news--there were several different elections, I think in New York, Michigan, Jersey, and maybe somewhere else, where there were thousands of fraud votes and corrupt bullshit going on--and delays of weeks and months in sorting out the fucking mess--but somehow, now, in this presidential election, you don't think there's the potential for fraud and fuckery going on with MILLIONS of mail in votes? And somehow, the delays in counting and processing have somehow conveniently occurred in closely contested battleground states--but no, no, Republicans are a bunch of conspiracy idiots for demanding investigations and deeper supervision of the whole process? Geesus, people.

Just like millions of drooling, brainwashed fucking sheep in this country, that can't see beyond their fucking face and their own doorstep. As long as they get to keep fucking, keep snorting, gulping down cheeseburgers and mac and cheese, and light up a blunt, and get a fucking check from the government--more free stuff!--what the fuck do they care? They are blind and choking on shit. They are so easily led and manipulated. Like fucking cattle, fattened for the slaughter, with a fucking nose ring through their nose. Yay! I can get a new piercing this weekend and a new tramp stamp on my fat fucking ass! Get you some juice, baby!!!

All such fat, bloated sheep, pumped full of Marxist jello. The snot dripping from their nose as they cackle and giggle like stupid bitches like AOC. Dancing in the streets, drunk with wine and debauchery, while Rome burns.

So tragic. And meanwhile, yeah, fucking morons. Remember when Biden aligned himself with Bernie, AOC, Buttiegeg, and Beto O'Rourke, promising them all positions of glory, power, and authority? What the fuck do you think their plans for America are going to do to the country? Fucking Harris was EQUITY OF OUTCOME, not equality. But yeah, that's right. Don't get upset. Don't get "butthurt" about any of it. Just enjoy the plough fucking you in the ass.

There are a lot of drooling morons in this country. How anyone can seriously listen to the plans and programs of Biden and Harris, and their lackies and toadies, and think all of that isn't terrible for this country? What the Fuck? Reparations? Redistribution of wealth? Fucking robbery and theft. Higher taxes? Open the fucking gates of immigration? Are you fucking insane? Disarm the country, and confiscate firearms. Yay, Harris and O'Rourke! They have said they are going to do that, too. "Mandatory Gun By-backs"--that's gun confiscation for the mentally slow. AOC and the "Green New Deal". Bernie's "Medicare For All"--all of these enormous programs that will absolutely bankrupt the country and send us into poverty and servitude. On and fucking on. But that's right. Lots of drooling fucking sheep just smile stupidly and think it's all one big fucking party. Yay! Miley Cyrus thinks that. One big party for America!

And I am certainly not ranting delusionally--nor is anyone else here that has argued similar points to my rant here--we are not "extreme" or some other BS. These policies and plans have all been discussed and embraced by Biden, Harris, and their fucking toads. I didn't make this awful shit up. This stuff is the ideology and policies of these goddamned Marxist clowns.

Fucking mind boggling.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 08, 2020, 01:15:26 am
What’s the Over/Under on months before Biden is 25th’d and War with Iran?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ghostmaker on November 08, 2020, 12:02:39 pm
Guess dissent is no longer patriotic again (that was fun in the shift from Bush to Obama -- the left flipped gears so fast even I was surprised).

How about some actual science? https://gnews.org/534248/

Short form: Biden's votes actually violate Benford's law, which has been used successfully to nail down Iranian election fraud (2009) and other forensic analyses.

But the real fallout can be found here: https://johnpavlovitz.com/2020/11/05/we-were-wrong-about-america/

Remember, lefties: we're not trapped in here with you. You are trapped in here with us. And there's 70 million of us who watched you push a senile old fuck and a literal political whore into office. Good job.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Tubesock Army on November 08, 2020, 04:13:30 pm
there's 70 million of us who watched you push a senile old fuck and a literal...whore into office.

It's 75 million. And have some respect, for God's sake, the man's still President until Biden is sworn in.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 08, 2020, 04:21:54 pm
there's 70 million of us who watched you push a senile old fuck and a literal...whore into office.

It's 75 million. And have some respect, for God's sake, the man's still President until Biden is sworn in.

Ok, now that was funny. :D
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Trond on November 08, 2020, 05:22:14 pm
What's this thing about Kamala being a "whore" or slutty?
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: CRKrueger on November 08, 2020, 06:12:14 pm
What's this thing about Kamala being a "whore" or slutty?

There have been rumors for years in California politics that she slept her way to Attorney General.  Whether it’s true or not mostly just tells you political affiliation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GameDaddy on November 08, 2020, 06:19:27 pm
Greetings!

I read an article that discussed how Biden and Harris are going to tear down the Wall, and totally destroy Trump's immigration policies. No bans, no restrictions, anyone and everyone can just fucking pour into the country. More than 11 million illegal immigrants in the country Biden plans to make citizens during his first 100 days in office.

Globalist, cock-sucking Marxists. Oh, well, Biden isn't a Marxist--he's a moderate.

Mmmm. no. It's much worse than you have imagined so far... He is pretty much a Marxist of the worst sort. His son Hunter Biden, owns 10% of Red China's largest foreign investment company. John Kerry's son owns a big chunk of this Red Chinese company as well, Bohai Harvest RST, along with one of the younger Bulger clan out of Boston. Together they own 30% of this multibillion dollar Chinese investment company, the only Red Chinese investment company authorized to invest in companies outside of China. In 2013 Hunter Introduced the CEO of BHR to Joe Biden, who fast tracked some legislation for them, and provided the Red Chinese with back door access to the Obama Administation White House.

In consideration for that favor, the Red Chinese arranged to buy one of Hunter Biden's other companies, Rosemont Realty, for $75 Million in Cash, back in 2015. Rosemont Realty, which owns and manages commercial real estate mostly in New Mexico. Since 2015, though the Chinese have pumped hundreds of millions in Rosemont Realty and have been busy buying more U.S. businesses and office space, and now own 2.1 Billion dollars of U.S. Real Estate . Joe Biden & Son have literally been selling the United States to the Red Chinese. I have the complete paper trail, including actual bank records if you really need to see this. The Bank records include the Ukranian's paying off Hunter Biden as well for access to American political favors during the Obama Administration. John Kerry's son stepped off the Ukranian deal in 2016, built still owns a huge chunk of the Chinese Investment Company.

I only got access to the paperwork because Hunter Biden's company, Rosemont Boahai, LLC. was sued into non-existence, because a couple of his scummy business partners there embezzled sixty million dollars of Lakota Indian Bond Money back in 2015 that was earmarked to develop an entire new neighborhood in Pine Ridge South Dakota for the Indians. So his business partners stole money from the Indians using a Ponzi scheme, and were convicted in an unrelated criminal investigation where these records were subpoena'd because several million dollars of the Lakota Money was processed and funneled through the Rosemont Bohai, LLC. investment accounts. NY District Attorney determined Hunter didn't know about this, so he wasn't charged. 

Sadly, I only found out about this on October 24th, after watching a video Rudy Guliani posted on Youtube, but only after he realized the Trump Administration was in serious trouble with the upcoming election. Rudy said he had proof, but didn't provide any, hoever I took the trouble to look into his allegations more deeply and found out he was telling the truth. The Bidens are rich because the red Chinese already paid them off, and will probably pay them even more for future considerations.

So I didn't vote for Biden, even though I originally planned to. I never was going to vote for Trump, because he is literally the worst American President who drew air in my lifetime. He was so bad, I found myself apologizing to the French for his erratic behavior and lack of leadersship, ...and that says alot. I did happily elect Greg Pence to Congress for the 6th district here in Indiana, he's older and smarter than his little brother Mike, anyway, and is an ex-Marine combat commander with a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can fix our defunct and dysfunctional government from the inside, it would be Greg.     
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: GameDaddy on November 08, 2020, 06:23:46 pm
What's this thing about Kamala being a "whore" or slutty?

There have been rumors for years in California politics that she slept her way to Attorney General.  Whether it’s true or not mostly just tells you political affiliation.

She did. She was also very erratic as a prosecuting Attorney General. I expect nothing remarkable in terms of leadership from her over the next four years, however would be delighted if she disappoints my current expectations. I'd also be surprised if she doesn't join the Democrats baksheesh pay for favors program, where they have historically taken money from foreign leaders in exchange for supporting legislation favorable for the foreigners, and generally harmful to American citizens. We'll see.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Mistwell on November 08, 2020, 07:09:56 pm
And I am certainly not ranting delusionally

Shark, I love yah man. But yes. Yes you are ranting delusionally.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 08, 2020, 07:25:48 pm
What's this thing about Kamala being a "whore" or slutty?
When she was in her 20s, she dated Willie Brown, who was married (though separated), and 31 years her senior. While they dated, he was the speaker of the assembly and then mayor (of San Fran), and appointed her to several positions, including the California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and then to the Medical Assistance Commission, supported her run for DA, and gave her expensive gifts, like a BMW. This is all public record, and well documented. Rumors beyond that are just rumors.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/27/willie-brown-kamala-harris-san-francisco-chronicle-letter/2695143002/
https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/article/Sure-I-dated-Kamala-Harris-So-what-13562972.php
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FelixGamingX1 on November 08, 2020, 07:41:17 pm
I just want my stimulus tbh
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: SHARK on November 08, 2020, 07:46:29 pm
Greetings!

I read an article that discussed how Biden and Harris are going to tear down the Wall, and totally destroy Trump's immigration policies. No bans, no restrictions, anyone and everyone can just fucking pour into the country. More than 11 million illegal immigrants in the country Biden plans to make citizens during his first 100 days in office.

Globalist, cock-sucking Marxists. Oh, well, Biden isn't a Marxist--he's a moderate.

Mmmm. no. It's much worse than you have imagined so far... He is pretty much a Marxist of the worst sort. His son Hunter Biden, owns 10% of Red China's largest foreign investment company. John Kerry's son owns a big chunk of this Red Chinese company as well, Bohai Harvest RST, along with one of the younger Bulger clan out of Boston. Together they own 30% of this multibillion dollar Chinese investment company, the only Red Chinese investment company authorized to invest in companies outside of China. In 2013 Hunter Introduced the CEO of BHR to Joe Biden, who fast tracked some legislation for them, and provided the Red Chinese with back door access to the Obama Administation White House.

In consideration for that favor, the Red Chinese arranged to buy one of Hunter Biden's other companies, Rosemont Realty, for $75 Million in Cash, back in 2015. Rosemont Realty, which owns and manages commercial real estate mostly in New Mexico. Since 2015, though the Chinese have pumped hundreds of millions in Rosemont Realty and have been busy buying more U.S. businesses and office space, and now own 2.1 Billion dollars of U.S. Real Estate . Joe Biden & Son have literally been selling the United States to the Red Chinese. I have the complete paper trail, including actual bank records if you really need to see this. The Bank records include the Ukranian's paying off Hunter Biden as well for access to American political favors during the Obama Administration. John Kerry's son stepped off the Ukranian deal in 2016, built still owns a huge chunk of the Chinese Investment Company.

I only got access to the paperwork because Hunter Biden's company, Rosemont Boahai, LLC. was sued into non-existence, because a couple of his scummy business partners there embezzled sixty million dollars of Lakota Indian Bond Money back in 2015 that was earmarked to develop an entire new neighborhood in Pine Ridge South Dakota for the Indians. So his business partners stole money from the Indians using a Ponzi scheme, and were convicted in an unrelated criminal investigation where these records were subpoena'd because several million dollars of the Lakota Money was processed and funneled through the Rosemont Bohai, LLC. investment accounts. NY District Attorney determined Hunter didn't know about this, so he wasn't charged. 

Sadly, I only found out about this on October 24th, after watching a video Rudy Guliani posted on Youtube, but only after he realized the Trump Administration was in serious trouble with the upcoming election. Rudy said he had proof, but didn't provide any, hoever I took the trouble to look into his allegations more deeply and found out he was telling the truth. The Bidens are rich because the red Chinese already paid them off, and will probably pay them even more for future considerations.

So I didn't vote for Biden, even though I originally planned to. I never was going to vote for Trump, because he is literally the worst American President who drew air in my lifetime. He was so bad, I found myself apologizing to the French for his erratic behavior and lack of leadersship, ...and that says alot. I did happily elect Greg Pence to Congress for the 6th district here in Indiana, he's older and smarter than his little brother Mike, anyway, and is an ex-Marine combat commander with a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can fix our defunct and dysfunctional government from the inside, it would be Greg.   

Greetings!

Excellent commentary, Gamedaddy! Thank you. All of the sordid, scummy fucking details of how greedy, corrupt, and evil Biden and company are doesn't surprise me at all. It's great to get a deeper look into the details, Gamedaddy!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 08, 2020, 07:47:28 pm
I just want my stimulus tbh

I'll be shocked if we get any more direct stimulus. Both parties seem to be happy to add pork to the proposals, and have the other side shoot it down.
But keep on being unemployed and locked down, or grandma will die.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Spinachcat on November 08, 2020, 07:59:28 pm
I expect a 2nd stimulus check. Gotta throw out the bread during the circus.

What’s the Over/Under on months before Biden is 25th’d and War with Iran?

Those things won't happen in Trump's 2nd term. The left overplayed its hand and the fraud avalanche is laughable and there's more evidence incoming. It's like a kid with a mouthful of cookies trying to tell you they have no idea what happened to the cookies. Math still works and Notorious ACB and "Uncle Clarence" are ready to rock. 

However, the DC Swamp is deep, hateful and dangerous, so if the election is stolen and Dementia JoJo becomes a puppet dictator, here's my bets.

I doubt China wants war with Iran. They probably want sanctions dropped so they can take advantage of that market (Iran needs money, China wants resources). I would think China would want a new Cold War with Russia and total focus on "Russia!!!" so nobody watches what China's up to. 

As for Biden, he's irrelevant except for his signature. He didn't even know what his policy stances were during his "campaign". As the leftists control the media, and the media will never ask any questions, what goes on in the White House and who really has their hand up the puppet's ass won't be known.

However, I do believe Biden would introduce the concept of a co-Presidency at his Inauguration as he's already called it the Harris-Biden administration. It will be praised as brilliantly progressive and prove his dedication/submission to identity politics.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FelixGamingX1 on November 08, 2020, 08:01:44 pm

I'll be shocked if we get any more direct stimulus. Both parties seem to be happy to add pork to the proposals, and have the other side shoot it down.
But keep on being unemployed and locked down, or grandma will die.

Ikr! The problem was that everyone used their money for frivolous purchases and they should have waited longer for the first payments. However, this is the time to pass the next round of checks. A lot of stores are counting on the holiday sales to stay afloat. If they going to give $1200 they shouldnt even bother. Small business and landlords are the ones that really got the ugly end of this pandemic. The ideal stimulus would be $3k for each adult but then when you multiply that by millions you know its not happening.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Pat on November 08, 2020, 09:11:33 pm
$4 trillion stimulus / 150 million taxpayers
= $25,000 to $30,000

That's how much that $1,200 cost you.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: FelixGamingX1 on November 08, 2020, 10:08:39 pm
$4 trillion stimulus / 150 million taxpayers
= $25,000 to $30,000

That's how much that $1,200 cost you.

Yes and no. Most of that will come off federal grants towards state infrastructure and local public jobs during the next few years. They can only increase taxes so much. And even them, most states simply don't have enough of a perk for people to overpay in income and property taxes. NY and CA are going to be the states where these changes will likely affect the most. Manhattan tolls will likely increase to $20 in the next five years as well and then there's no guarantee another large scale global event won't affect the world again. Forget about national debt, this is the only thing where it's almost safe to say that will never get paid off in today's world.   

In other words, damage is done. We'll be seeing more potholes, slower public service, and higher taxes for sure. Although I'm positive things will get much worse before it gets better. The pandemic is nowhere under control and those ma and pop small business will disappear from east to west.

This is a greedy capitalist utopian dream. Only chain stores and far less competition. What concerns me though is how many of these businesses have their roots in the US. We need to stop exporting American jobs overseas right now!
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 08, 2020, 10:19:44 pm
$4 trillion stimulus / 150 million taxpayers
= $25,000 to $30,000

That's how much that $1,200 cost you.
Hmmm... I hadn't realized that. I guess hyperinflation is going to fuck us all eventually. WW3 if we 'chew and screw' as a nation. Hmmm....
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 08, 2020, 10:46:12 pm
$4 trillion stimulus / 150 million taxpayers
= $25,000 to $30,000

That's how much that $1,200 cost you the next generation.
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: consolcwby on November 08, 2020, 11:00:33 pm
I've just read this, and thought I'd share:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/developing-nancy-pelosis-chief-staff-chief-executive-feinsteins-husband-major-shareholder-dominion-ballot-counting-systems/

Not just a coincidence me thinks...
Title: Re: 2020 Election Commentary
Post by: Aglondir on November 08, 2020, 11:20:27 pm
What’s the Over/Under on months before Biden is 25th’d and War with Iran?