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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 185324 times)

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #60 on: August 03, 2020, 08:28:42 AM »
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.

Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.

Shasarak

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #61 on: August 03, 2020, 05:38:36 PM »
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142928
Considering their spectacular freak-out after the Christchurch shooting and how they went on a gun-grabbing spree, I didn't plan on emigrating there anyways.

That is a Win - Win for all of us.
Who da Drow?  U da drow! - hedgehobbit

There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #62 on: August 04, 2020, 04:01:53 PM »
Every news site follows their own logic for how they rate the current projections for the Electoral College.  

NPR moved 6 races toward the Democratic candidate.  They are now rating Colorado likely Dem (was Lean Dem), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida as Lean Dem (was Toss-up) and Georgia from Lean GOP to toss-up.  

Of those, Florida is the most likely to shift back.  Based on their electoral map, if Florida were to swing back to Trump, it would drop Biden down to 268 electoral votes - 2 shy of a victory.  While it appears that 'the rustbelt' has swung hard away from Trump (who no longer has the message of change), this does include projecting Biden winning states that Trump carried in 2016 (especially PA, MI, FL).
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Spinachcat

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #63 on: August 04, 2020, 05:45:59 PM »
Quote from: Shasarak;1142734
Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.


Be nice or I'll spread rumors there's oil in the Shire!

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2020, 11:37:09 AM »
Emerson has released one of the most favorable polls for Trump in the last several weeks, showing him with 47% of the vote among Likely Voters; most other polls show him in the low 40s.  

It's an interesting poll for a variety of reasons.  Based on their poll of a month ago, the margins remain the same, but there is a much smaller pool of undecided voters (10% undecided in June, only 4% now).  Trump won late-deciding voters by a significant margin (in the lead up to the election 538 had several articles about how there was significantly more uncertainty about the election than was reported in the media, in large part because there were enough undecided voters to change the result).  If the number of undecided voters gets much smaller, campaigns will have to 'poach voters' who have already decided on their preferred candidate to achieve their desired state-level results.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #65 on: August 05, 2020, 02:05:58 PM »
Five Thirty Eight released an interesting article on the polling now versus 2016. This was published after my last post, but reiterates something I had said.

Quote

Clinton led in most national polls, but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s. Biden's share has been hovering around 50 percent. As a result, some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced, in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven't made up their minds and because signs point to fewer third-party voters than in 2016. Combined, Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support, on average, in national polls in early August 2016. By comparison, Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

KingCheops

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #66 on: August 05, 2020, 03:14:38 PM »
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.

RandyB

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #67 on: August 05, 2020, 03:17:20 PM »
Quote from: KingCheops;1143460
Polling doesn't matter for shit if someone can get ruined for admitting to being MAGA.

To the old adage: "There are three kinds of falsehoods - lies, damned lies, and statistics" we can add a fourth kind of falsehood: "polls".

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #68 on: August 05, 2020, 03:26:49 PM »
Biden will NOT be traveling to Wisconsin to accept his party's nomination.

Presumably because they can't get him through twenty minutes of exposure without him groping a woman, drooling, or shitting into his Depends.

Wonder who the Veep nomination will be?

GeekyBugle

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #69 on: August 05, 2020, 03:31:49 PM »
Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

GeekyBugle

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #70 on: August 05, 2020, 06:41:18 PM »
Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #71 on: August 11, 2020, 05:28:46 PM »
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents was worth a read.

Quote
Either way, Republicans are getting clobbered with independents. The assessments end up in the same place. The only differences are in how to read the problem. One GOP campaign consultant suggested that the percentage of voters not just disapproving, but strongly disapproving of Trump's overall performance is the best indicator--that "somewhat disapproving" left slight ground for someone to still come down his way. National polls show roughly 50 percent strongly disapprove of the president's performance, with somewhat disapproving in the mid-single digits. Of course, winning all of the somewhat-disapproving voters would be a bit unrealistic.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Mordred Pendragon

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #72 on: August 11, 2020, 06:49:03 PM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1144384
I assume everyone is aware that Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate.

While that's going to dominate the news cycle for the next couple of days, I thought The Cook Political Reports article on Independents was worth a read.

The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.
Sic Semper Tyrannis

HappyDaze

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2020, 07:22:25 PM »
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I have to wonder if this announcement strengthens Kanye's chances.

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #74 on: August 12, 2020, 08:07:10 AM »
Quote from: Doc Sammy;1144393
The problem is that as much as Trump is disliked, Kamala is just as hated if not more.

Biden more or less lost the support of BLM with that move. Some of my SJW relatives and friends IRL and on social media have been bitching about this and are not going to vote for Biden, not even the ones who were "Vote Blue No Matter Who" just a few days ago.

I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head here. Unless the point is 'check off the duhversity boxes', why put Roundheels Harris on the ticket?

She doesn't deliver a swing state. Her CV is tainted with Willie Brown's spunk. Her charisma is at best mediocre and that plastic surgery job she got looks like a bad photoshop.

And hilariously, Biden is already talking about how Harris will be the one to lead us in 2021. At this rate I wonder if Biden will survive to the election!