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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 185256 times)

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2020, 01:31:40 PM »
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.

Quote
Even Fox News, a loyal Trump ally that the president watches for hours inside the White House, interpreted his proposal as a sign the president is flailing.

"It is a fragrant and flagrant expression of his current weakness," Fox News politics editor Chris Stirewalt said during a Fox News broadcast Thursday morning. "A person who is in a strong position would never, never suggest anything like that. So Trump may be making a tactical error here by further telegraphing his weak position in the polls and his weak position for re-election."

Source
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2020, 01:34:25 PM »
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142358
True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.

I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2020, 01:49:55 PM »
Sorry for a triple post, but wanted to add specifically about Florida Polling.

Joe Biden's beating Trump in Florida -- where polls go to die - Tampa Bay Times

Quote

Steve Vancore, a veteran Democratic strategist in Florida, said people tend to misread polls by projecting the results forward to Election Day. and by failing to account for the campaigns' ability to react to the numbers by shifting strategy and winning over new supporters.

And multiple strategists and pollsters said in interviews that, while polls shouldn't be interpreted as predictors of the future, they are currently picking up voters' discontent in Florida and other battleground states with the president's ability to lead a nation in crisis.

"Right now, I don't think there's anything unusual about the polls. The economy is hurting, people are scared and the commander-in-chief isn't giving people what they want, so his numbers are going down," Vancore said. "But the campaigns see this data and start reacting to the data. That's what closes things down. Partisans tend to go back to the ticket."
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2020, 01:52:46 PM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly.

But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.

RandyB

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2020, 01:57:23 PM »
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1142388
But until we do unlock fusion, we'll need to make do. We can build much better fission plants (molten salt reactors, for example)...

And again, you will have the green machine screaming for your dangerous technology to be shut down.

I see where you're coming from. I agree with it. But I wouldn't trust the opposition to give you a fair shake even if you proved tokamaks were totally safe for the environment.

Yes.

Because it's not about promoting clean power. It's about eliminating cheap power to impoverish the rest of us while they live like kings.

GeekyBugle

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #50 on: July 30, 2020, 02:22:08 PM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142385
I think that fossil fuels are the past, not the future.  Virtually all of our problems can be solved by access to clean fusion power.  We know that fusion is possible because we're surrounded by stars, but doing it without massive gravity is certainly challenging. I like to believe that if we commit to achieving fusion we can.  On that subject, Iter: World's Largest Nuclear Fusion Project Begins Assembly.


You can believe whatever you want, dropping our only energy source in the hopes that your dreams come true is asinine.

And furthermore, even if you managed to achieve clean and safe fusion... How do you plan to power planes and ocean transporters of goods? Energy density is against you, so far there's not a single battery that can begin to compete with fossil fuels in this department. Plus the time it takes to recharge them...

Energy density of fuels

Energy density of batteries

1 J = 0.00027777777777778 Wh

So the best batteries give you 150 Wh per kilo

Gasoline gives you 46 MJ per kilo or 12777.777777778 Wh per kilo.

The plane fuel gives you 44.65 MJ/kg

Electric planes are still a pipe dream

Imagine now trying to move by sea 1.19 billion tones of cargo each year, with batteries? Ludicrous!

And powering your cars, buses, planes or ships with thorium reactors is also a pipe dream



Edited to add something about batteries just for the sake of it

« Last Edit: July 30, 2020, 02:25:49 PM by GeekyBugle »
Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

moonsweeper

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #51 on: July 30, 2020, 03:16:32 PM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142384
From earlier this month.

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

This one is from April.

Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden

Of course, even if polls aren't everything, I tend to agree with Fox News regarding Trump floating the suggestion that we delay the Federal election.



Source

I specifically said 'internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns"...
.
and if you really believe that campaigns with hundreds of millions aren't running polls that only the inner circle analyzes, then that just shows your political naiveté.

example:  statistical analysis on voter lists to pinpoint most likely voters....3 days with an 8 hour shift each....approx 50 calls per day per caller (Assuming a 10 minute survey)....say you hire a 100 people to do the calling...that is 15000 responses for about half a week...*

...or do you think that the $263 million already spent by the Biden campaign was for buttons, banners, and bumper stickers??



As far as the delay the election comment....Trump is the biggest troll out there, he tweets shit just to fire people up...He was doing crazy shit before he was even a reality star.

And believe me or not about the polling that is released being about shaping the outcome instead of predicting it...I don't really care

But something you might want to ask yourself:


When people are locked down for an extended period of time, they have to watch and read something....with all that extra time, do you suppose maybe there are more people checking out alternative news sources??
Whether the stories are accurate is irrelevant...it gets people thinking and asking questions...

For crazy libertarians like me, questioning authority isn't a problem, but it can be a problem for both the left and the right...

Which side of the Biden/Trump game do you think has more to lose right now if their base starts asking questions???  ;)



*note == the example numbers were just randomly chosen on the fly while posting...I did have to do telemarketing for a year or so in order to eat, so the call volume assessments are based on actual experience.*
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deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #52 on: July 30, 2020, 04:21:50 PM »
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping.  

Quote
The once rock-solid grip that the president had on his party seems to be slipping. Talking with pollsters and strategists from both sides this week,  it's clear that Trump is suffering not just with Democrats and independents but also with GOP voters. They tell us of polling that shows Trump underwater in districts he carried easily in 2016. One GOP strategist told me that even in heavily Republican districts, Trump's job approval rating among Republicans has dropped 10-20 points. The KFF poll released last week found Trump's overall job approval rating among Republicans dropped 12 points between May and July. On handling coronavirus, the drop in GOP support was an even more dramatic 26 points.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

FingerRod

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #53 on: July 30, 2020, 04:28:05 PM »
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.

Ratman_tf

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #54 on: July 30, 2020, 09:58:56 PM »
Quote from: FingerRod;1142419
This is purely anecdotal, but I would not put a lot into the polls.

I am an Independent, voting both sides almost perfectly split since the 90's. My wife leans left, and if I had to guess, she is going to do the 'unthinkable' this November.

The why is simple. I use my real name on Twitter. A few weeks ago we were debating how far cancel culture has come. I grabbed my phone, and started a tweet saying that all lives, black and otherwise, matter and that we need to remember that this November with a MAGA hashtag. I handed her the phone and told her to hit the send button. She wouldn't do it.

I work in a highly regulated industry and have to register all social media accounts with my work. She knew it would get flagged, and she feared what would happen. Then I dared her research Governor Wallace, the origin of the KKK, the party that filibustered civil rights and segregated the federal government, the Washington Post stats on the unarmed black men killed by police last year, and the Chicago crime stats (she is from Chicago) so far this year. The final straw was the refusal of the Democrats to even debate Tim Scott's bill in the Senate. She sees Democrats in a different light today than she did two months ago.

I am not about to register Republican, for the same reasons I won't ever use social media for anything other than shit-talking sports, but unless somebody gives me photo evidence of a Republican presidential candidate literally giving Satan a tongue-job, I'm going to be locked in for the foreseeable future.

Like I said, this is completely anecdotal. But I have a feeling there are a lot of us out here.

Anecdotal. I have never voted. Never really cared. I don't follow politics closely enough to make an informed decision, and would be just randomly poking boxes like a pidgeon.
But after Trump, the Democrats have gone so far off the deep end. I have voted straight Red with a preference for Trump supporters on the ballot. just dropped off my state primaries last week, as a matter of fact.
I am simply hate voting against the Democrats at this stage. I once considered them the lesser of two evils. But they've managed to convince me they're the greater of two evils at this point in time.

I don't know what Trump's chances of re-election are. I don't trust any polls since 2016. But if I were to put a wager on it, I'd be willing to say Trump in a landslide. I think the average American is shit scared of the rioting and the Democrats trying to sweep it under the rug, and they want a candidate who's willing to send in the troops and clean house. Or at least, the candidate who says they will.
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Spinachcat

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #55 on: July 31, 2020, 04:17:43 AM »
I don't believe landslides are possible in such a divided America.

I do know that Trump will lose if sane people don't stand up and vote for him.
As with 2016, it''s all about voter turnout in key states.
If you know any American who doesn't want to live in communist shithole, get them to the polls because 2020 is the moment when America chooses between Freedom and Tyranny. If Biden wins, America is done. Say goodbye to prosperity.

Maybe the Silent Majority exists.  
Maybe they will get off their ass this year.
Who knows?

As for polls, let's keep two major factors in mind:
1) Biden's handlers haven't announced the real Democratic presidential candidate, oops, I mean his VP.
2) There have been ZERO presidential debates.

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #56 on: July 31, 2020, 08:11:10 AM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142418
Cook Political just published an article Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping.

Cook also believed Trump was going to get utterly pasted in 2016.

Forgive me if I fail to panic.

shuddemell

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #57 on: July 31, 2020, 12:17:42 PM »
I definitely wouldn't panic either. For a couple of reasons, the only polls even remotely worth listening to are aggregate polls, and even those are highly limited in their scope. Secondly, the silent majority definitely does exist, and the polls make no real attempt to find them. People where I live largely are ignored by polling, and what polling does occur, occurs in the metropolitan areas, therefore injecting a liberal bias by their very nature. People here often keep their political opinions to themselves, even going so far as to not even discuss who or what they voted for. Largely, this is the nature of rural conservatism. The only thing I would be concerned about is complacency, but I think the far left has made enough of a spectacle of themselves to ensure that everyone votes here simply from fear of encroaching Marxist beliefs.
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Spinachcat

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #58 on: August 01, 2020, 10:43:26 PM »
Quote from: Aglondir;1141744
We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.


Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74

Shasarak

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #59 on: August 02, 2020, 01:57:21 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1142724
Agreed. I love Pundy's posts about Uruguay. It would be great to hear more about the country as it exists today from his perspective.

In the meantime, here's an article about 12 Countries where Americans can escape...at a price.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/07/28/escape-america-countries-buy-citizenship-second-passport/#573f0dd27f74

Sorry Spinachcat, better cross NZ off the list.  No USAians allowed at the minute I am afraid.
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