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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 185077 times)

Trond

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #300 on: October 01, 2020, 12:05:02 AM »
Chewbacca vs the Swedish Chef



Spinachcat

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #301 on: October 01, 2020, 01:47:55 AM »
My favorite part of the debate was when Trump started singing "Throw the Leftist down the well so my people can be free!" and we all sang along at home.

My second favorite part was when Biden snarked about beating Bernie, disavowed universal healthcare, and then disavowed the Green New Deal.

deadDMwalking

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #302 on: October 05, 2020, 04:08:23 PM »
On September 29th, the Real Clear Politics Betting Average had Trump at 45, and Biden at 54.5.  Following the debate the betting odds have shifted decisively toward Biden; they are currently at 37.5 Trump and 61.0 Biden.  This is roughly tied with Biden's biggest advantage in the polls from the first week of August. 

Trump lost the advantage in the betting markets on June 2nd; on September 1st they had converged to a near tie. 

Here's an article from Forbes from last month when the odds were tightening.

Of course, the election is far from over.  The battleground states at the moment are fairly large states as far as Electoral Votes go.  Ohio is rated as a 50/50 toss-up, and Florida notoriously difficult to poll, it wouldn't be hard to imagine a situation where the winner will have to win in both Arizona and Pennsylvania. 
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Shasarak

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #303 on: October 05, 2020, 06:19:23 PM »
I am old enough to remember that Clinton was the betting favourite candidate during the 2016 election.
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Ratman_tf

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #304 on: October 05, 2020, 07:03:54 PM »
I am old enough to remember that Clinton was the betting favourite candidate during the 2016 election.



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Spinachcat

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #305 on: October 05, 2020, 07:21:53 PM »
Trump could easily lose the election. The DNC's voter fraud machine and MSM control is nothing to scoff at. We have a country full of diaper faces cool with their incoming economic destruction, so the MSM's power is truly ascendant.

In 2016, the leftists "knew 100%" there was no chance for Trump so it was just fun and games until her regal coronation. In 2020, they will stop at nothing to regain control.

However, in 2020, they also "know 100%" that American patriots will kneel in obedience the moment Trump is gone. While that's absolutely true for Republican politicians, that might not be true for all Americans. 

You can already see the Republicans in Washington lining up to bow to Biden. Amy Coney Barrett needed to be seated ASAP, but its all finger twiddling because Trump gone makes the RNC think they'll "get their party back" and Trump's fans will have no choice but support them.

deadDMwalking

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #306 on: October 07, 2020, 12:58:25 PM »
In July, I read an article that talked about Internal Polling, and how campaigns tend to share internal polling to help drive the narrative.  We know that internal polls tend to be biased toward the person commissioning the poll, so it's not uncommon for internal polls from both parties to show a very different race - ie, in one the incumbent shows a significant lead, and in the other the incumbent shows a smaller and potentially surmountable lead.  These types of polls help drive fundraising to close the gap/put the  race away. 

Throughout the election cycle, there has been an expectation that polls would tighten as we approach election day.  A 5% polling lead in a state might decrease to a 3% lead by election day, and with a margin of error of 4% that could mean that the race is absolutely a toss-up. 

That's not what appears to be happening.

Quote
A poll conducted for CNN, released on Tuesday, showed Biden leading Trump by a 57 percent to 41 percent margin. An NBC-Wall Street Journal survey released over the weekend showed Biden ahead by 14 points. Even Rasmussen, the Republican-leaning pollster that Trump so often touts, found Biden ahead by 8 in their most recent survey.

Virtually every battleground poll is breaking against Trump as well. Recent surveys put Biden well ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire. Trump leads by small margins in usually solidly Republican states like Texas, Missouri and South Carolina. Internal Republican polls show Trump only narrowly leading in states like Montana and Kansas.

“These last three weeks have just felt terrible,” said Jai Chabria, a Republican strategist in Ohio. “It feels like the Democrats have momentum going into this last month, certainly, but I don’t think anyone knows what that means.”
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #307 on: October 07, 2020, 01:12:42 PM »
NPR covered that as well, but their narrative to explain it didn't seem to make much sense. They focused very heavily on the debate, and talked about how voters looked at the two candidates, and didn't want Trump the Bully™ on their TV screens for another 4 years. In other words, they were very strongly suggesting that Biden won the debates. But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump. Biden was steamrolled, and didn't even take it gracefully. He responded with blatant insults, so he can't even claim the high road. Overall, he came across as weak, and that's pretty much the #1 sin in presidential elections.

So why is this happening? Doesn't seem likely that the polls themselves are jacked, because both sides are showing similar trends. It could be that the number of people lying to polls has jumped even more. Or there could be a seismic change in what people are looking for in a candidate. Have the riots really faded from memory, that quickly? Is systematic racism really that important to so many people? I really don't know.

deadDMwalking

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #308 on: October 07, 2020, 01:51:04 PM »
But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump.

I'd like to see your source for that.  Undecided voters are a relatively small pool of voters in 2020. 

Five Thirty Eight partnered with Ipsos to score the debate.  Trump's unfavorable rating rose 2% after the debate and his favorable rating dropped for a post-debate shift of -26%.  Biden gained in favorability and reduced his unfavorable rating from a +2% to a +7%.  In terms of debate performance, 2/3 of those polled gave Trump poor marks; 1/3 favorable.  60% gave Biden good marks to 40% poor. 

Anecdotally, among the people that I know that like Trump, none thought the debate was catching him in a good light.  Among Republican strategists, the common refrain is that Trump should have given Biden enough rope to hang himself - the interruptions actually served as a lifeline to rescue him from a difficult question.  And it turns out that the Left does not obey Trump's commands... 
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #309 on: October 07, 2020, 02:22:54 PM »
But the polls among undecided voters who watched the debates showed the opposite, most starkly the Telemundo poll that was 2:1 in favor of Trump.
I'd like to see your source for that.  Undecided voters are a relatively small pool of voters in 2020. 
I was mistaken, it wasn't undecided voters. It was Spanish-speaking Americans in general.
https://www.newsweek.com/66-percent-spanish-speaking-americans-telemundo-poll-think-trump-just-won-debate-1535176

And nobody's arguing that Trump came across great in the debate, just in comparison to the Democratic doormat.

jhkim

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #310 on: October 07, 2020, 04:03:48 PM »
And nobody's arguing that Trump came across great in the debate, just in comparison to the Democratic doormat.
It seems like it was mostly a toss-up. On Fox News, what I mostly see it calling it a hot mess and a tie where neither looked great. They don't cite polls claiming a Trump victory. At most, they quote Trump's campaign staff calling it a Trump victory.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/first-presidential-debate-who-won-style-substance-doug-schoen
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/presidential-debate-winner-trump-liz-peek
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2020-elections-october-surprises-john-fund

Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #311 on: October 07, 2020, 04:32:04 PM »
Not exactly an impartial source, but Vox summarized some results.
https://www.vox.com/2020/9/30/21494864/who-won-debate-trump-biden-polls
Quote from: CBS survey of respondents in battleground states
Overall, 48 percent said Biden won the debate, while 41 percent said Trump won, and 10 percent said it was a tie. As CBS elections and survey director Anthony Salvanto pointed out on air, this was pretty close to the support for each candidate going in.
Which is almost the definition of a wash. Results are more tilted when it comes to impressions:
Quote from: Same
Kabir Khanna of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit also points out that 42 percent of debate watchers said they thought worse of Trump afterward, and 24 percent said they thought better of him. In contrast, 32 percent said they thought worse of Biden, while 38 percent thought better of him.
Quote
CNN and SSRS also conducted an instant poll of debate watchers, and they found a more lopsided margin in Biden’s favor. Sixty percent of their respondents thought Biden won, while 28 percent thought Trump won.
I looked at that poll, their audience skews Democratic so there's an inherent bias.

jeff37923

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #312 on: October 07, 2020, 05:25:44 PM »
Wow. Watching Pat and deadDMwalking spread FUD for Biden and the Democrat Party is like watching the theater audience clap for Tinkerbell to not die.

"Meh."

Pat
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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #313 on: October 07, 2020, 05:58:06 PM »
Wow. Watching Pat and deadDMwalking spread FUD for Biden and the Democrat Party is like watching the theater audience clap for Tinkerbell to not die.
As usual, you're a fucking idiot who can't even read. I was questioning the narrative that Biden won the debate.

Machaeus

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Re: 2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #314 on: October 07, 2020, 07:38:55 PM »
Not sure how fond anyone here is of Tim Pool - I personally think he's about even on his hit/miss record - but I found this video today and I had so much catharsis.

"Mail in Voting BACKFIRES, Democrats Jump Ship In Panic As Mail Votes Get REJECTED In Large Numbers"

Also lol FuckYouTube put in a "Here's some context that'll frame the narrative the way we want it c:" marker above the title.
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