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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 4953 times)

Ghostmaker

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #30 on: July 25, 2020, 08:12:48 AM »
Quote from: Spinachcat;1141658
His base knows Biden's not going to be the power in the White House. They aren't voting for Biden. He's just the name on the ticket and won't be more than a figurehead, if he's even kept around. Democrats are voting for liberal and Marxist control and destruction of the nation...and they are VERY motivated to make that happen.  

In fact, Biden babbling nonsense at the debates might even help him. He doesn't matter to his voters, but Trump voters might see Biden drooling and mistakenly believe there's nobody dumb enough for vote for Biden when we most certainly have an entire nation full of worthless morons excited to destroy everything past Americans sacrificed to ensure.
That's pretty fucking sad, you know. Not you, but the fact that Democrats are basically electing a meat puppet.

Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.

Aglondir

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #31 on: July 25, 2020, 09:35:21 PM »
Quote from: Ghostmaker;1141686
Swear to God, I'm starting to think I should move to Singapore or something. At least they're honest about being autocrats.

We need Pundit to create a thread about how to move to Uruguay.
I know it's hard to keep an open heart,
When even friends seem out to harm you.
But if you could heal a broken heart,
Wouldn't time be out to charm you?

- Axl Rose, "November Rain"

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #32 on: July 28, 2020, 10:14:59 AM »
The Cook Report adjusted it's rating of Florida from 'toss-up' to 'Lean Democrat'.  In my original post, it was polling significantly more friendly toward Biden than the other 'toss up' states in large part because Biden appears to be doing much better with seniors than any recent Democratic candidates.  

Real Clear Politics has a tool that lets you create what you think is the most likely electoral map.  On the 'base map', Biden starts with 222 electoral votes to Trump's 115.  201 Electoral votes are listed as toss-up including Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia and, of course, Florida (as well as one district in Maine and one district in Nebraska).  

If Biden winds Florida without a single 'toss-up state', he would have 251 electoral votes.  Winning Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) would give him the victory, or winning basically any two states besides Nevada/Iowa (6 electoral votes each).  For example, winning Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan would put Biden at 277 electoral votes.  Trump winning every other battleground state wouldn't make a difference.  

Effectively, that puts Florida into 'must-win' territory.  It has been reported that internal polls that Trump relies on 'in aggregate' show him with a smaller share of the electorate in states he won handily - ie, winning Texas by 5 points when in 2016 he won by 9.  A shift of 4 points toward the Democratic opponent.  A universal 4% shift compared to 2016 results would shift the following States from the Republican to the Democratic candidate:

Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.  

The National Polls of voters at the end of 2016 showed Clinton with a 2-4% lead (and a negative trend, with late breaking news about the FBI reopening an investigation); she ended up wining the Popular vote by 2%.  If the electorate were exactly like the 2016 electorate (ignoring any demographic changes, or 'enthusiasm changes'), Trump would need to cut the popular vote lead down below 4% - that would potentially allow him to lose only Nebraska's 2nd District, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which would result in 269 Electoral votes for Biden; Trump would have to win NV, AZ, TX, IA, MO, FL, GA, NC, OH, NH, ME2.  

With 98 days to go until the election, this is just a snapshot, but it may explain why the White House is now endorsing a mask policy, and why the White House asked the governor in Tennessee to close bars (he is not doing so).
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Chris24601

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2020, 10:14:11 AM »
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F@€#ed and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2020, 02:47:55 PM »
Quote from: Chris24601;1142236
So, they're basically starting with the exact same assumptions as 2016 (I seem to recall lots of "Trump capped at 110-120 EVs style maps then too), but an even more unlikeable candidate... but they're sure they've got their cheating algorithms right this time so it'll all work out.

You look at the internals on those polls you'll see them weighting the sample at just 23% Republican (when actual registration is in the 38% range) and near 50% Democrat (actual number is also about 38%).

When you're shaving 15% off one side (whom President Trump has 90+% approval) and pumping the other side up by 12% just to get Biden to a slight lead... well the Dem's are F*d and all these polls are really just about trying to lay the groundwork that President Trump stole the election again because RESIST!!! is literally all the lunatic Left has.


I spend a fair bit of time evaluating the polls.  There are known differences between 'all adults', versus 'registered voters' versus 'likely voters'.  As you move from one to the other, the electorate becomes more Republican leaning, and the polls reflect that.  The New York Times addressed this in an article today asking: Are the Polls Missing Republican Voters?

The article is worth a read, but here's one quote:

Quote

Mr. Trump's problem wasn't the number of people who said they voted for him last time: It was that only 86 percent of those who said they voted for him last time said they would do so again. Perhaps there's a way the poll could have the right number of voters who said they voted for Mr. Trump last time, but not this time. It would have to be an awfully specific form of polling error.


Building on that, Politico had an article yesterday visiting with people in Scranton, PA - the type of town that you'd expect Trump to do well with.  Once again, the article is worth a read; for Trump to raise his status in the polls, it would be helpful if he could motivate long-time non-voters to start voting.  In 2016, 43% of non-voters were whites without a college degree.  That's a huge potential source of support.  From what I see in a lot of reporting is that a lot of people felt that Trump would change the system (drain the swamp) and that he's seen as corrupt.  If you want to win elections, you either need to get the people who voted for you last time to vote for you again, or you need to find a new group of people to vote for you.  It looks like Trump has lost a lot of support from people that voted for him in 2016.  It may be that Biden is simply not as distasteful as Hillary Clinton to many voters.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

SHARK

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2020, 03:17:52 PM »
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the façade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
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deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2020, 03:35:18 PM »
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!
Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative.


I don't think this is true, and most 'poll of polls' have been accurate, especially on a National level.  In 2016, the 'big miss' was a failure to recognize a growing divergence between whites with and without college degrees.  Including educational attainment when calculating projected vote share is important and is being included.  There's a measure of uncertainly in polls, and most people are very bad at recognizing uncertainty.  If a poll indicates a tied race (as a Monmouth poll of Adults in Georgia did), the uncertainty of +/-5% means that Trump winning by 5 or losing by 5 are all within the margin of error.  

Here's a Five Thirty Eight article about the accuracy of polls.

Here's a CNN article evaluating the accuracy of the 2018 mid-term polls.  

Polls are not perfect, and nothing is a substitute for actually having an election.  They still remain a useful (and largely accurate) tool used by all the candidates.


Edit - Here's a Pro Trump article on CNN talking about his strong support among so-called 'Obama/Trump' voters.  

In the article, the focus is on how 2/3 of these voters still ardently support Trump.  My take away is that 1/3 of these types of Trump voters have moved away from him - considering his narrow margin of victory in some of these states, it is a loss of support he can ill-afford.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 03:40:51 PM by deadDMwalking »
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

GeekyBugle

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2020, 03:41:56 PM »
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjC7-w5KDKNiD-k0tVo1DPw?view_as=subscriber

SHARK

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #38 on: July 29, 2020, 03:49:43 PM »
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Greetings!

Hey there, GeekyBugle! Oh no, no hubris on my part. Of course, I will be voting for certain. Everyone should. This election is a very crucial election. I would like to think that after all these riots, the Democrat mayors and governors cheering mobs on, cities burning, police departments being defunded, crime going way up, businesses being burned, and people being murdered in the street--the majority of Americans will have had enough of this bullshit, and vote to re-elect President Trump. Thus, I hope he wins in a landslide victory.

If Biden wins the election, this country is fucked.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the façade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
"Delenda Est Parthia!"

Steven Mitchell

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #39 on: July 29, 2020, 03:53:52 PM »
Quote from: SHARK;1142267
Greetings!

Most polls are terribly corrupted, and desperate to suck down the Marxist's narrative. Of course Trump is behind in the polls, and has always been, and always will be. Liberals want to demoralize Conservative voters--and others--and depress voting, so Biden can win. Even though we know the Democrats are full of lies, deceit and fraud, and will assuredly attempt to corrupt and rig the election in their favour.

In November, I think that President Trump will honestly win in the election in a crushing, landslide victory.

The Marxists are corrupt and broken, and they are attempting to overthrow our Republic, and institute Marxism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

I think the most likely outcome is an electoral college landslide for Trump.  But there are other outcomes that are certainly possible, and not just the 1% chance territory, either.  What this does to the popular vote, I've got no clue.  The agitation is going to produce some enthusiasm and some apathy, especially in states not viewed as close.  Hang onto your hats, it is a bumpy (or bumpier) ride from here on out.

Chris24601

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« Reply #40 on: July 29, 2020, 11:48:25 PM »
The latest stats on Biden's marxist anti-fracking energy plan are that it will cost us 19 million jobs, mostly in the swing states President Trump carried in 2016 (650k jobs in PA, 825k in WI and MI, several hundred thousand in OH, and the list goes on).

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.

2020 is 2016 turned up a notch because the Leftists have had four years to bake in their toxic TDS juices and can't even comprehend that most people don't hate as much as they do.

So they throw out fake polls where they say "Likely Voters", but weight it with just 23% Republican turnout and 50% Democrat turnout because the important thing isn't the poll's accuracy... it's to sell the narrative that Biden had it in the bag until President Trump stole the election... cue Mueller Investigation and Impeachment 2.0 because these psychopaths will do ANYTHING; lie, cheat, steal, destroy lives; whatever it takes to get the power they crave.

They'd rather be kings of a garbage dump where their will is law than be fellow citizens in a wealthy prosperous country where others are free to ignore them.

And I'll tell you this too... the Insane Left would NOT be pushing to keep everyone socially isolated, the riots, shutting down opposing voices online, and for national mail-in voting if they actually thought they were winning. If you're winning you don't rock the boat, you let things proceed as normal... you certainly don't throw society into chaos and then pray popular sentiment swings your way.

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars. The cognitive dissonance required to be a Leftist is phenomenal. You literally have to pretend not to know things... like Antifa/BLM being radical Marxist hate groups who have burned and destroyed more black businesses in 30 days than the KKK managed in 30 years.

Ghostmaker

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« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2020, 08:26:46 AM »
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1142274
Hubris precedes the fall.

If you Trumpsters think you can't loose then you'll drink from the same bitter glass that $hillary and her sycophants drank in 2016, get out and convince your friends and family to vote Trump, and to go out and vote come election day.

As for the polls, a study was just made, only the extreme left says they can speak their mind and no one will get offended, the rest of the people don't say this.

Because of cancel culture many people will say to the pollster whatever and do the opposite, but don't think you already won.

Oh, I'm sure Trump could lose. But it would require a bit more than half assed polls and dangerhairs screaming.

See, here's the kicker: most people just want stability. In some cases, even more than justice. If you don't make the case that shaking things up is absolutely necessary for justice, people will not cotton onto your message even if you're imitating Eric Andre screaming at a fence.

Biden is a ridiculously bad candidate. Supposedly his VP choice will be Kamala 'Roundheels' Harris, whose ascent in power was lubricated by her willingness to get plowed to get ahead. YEAH I WENT THERE, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Great picks, Dems: a guy whose psyche may be fragmenting in real time, with his running mate garnering no respect for anyone due to her cosplaying as the Lincoln Bedroom.

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2020, 10:26:10 AM »
Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

It's just Hillary's "we're going to put the coal industry out of business" 2.0... now with even more economic hardship. Yet, the braindead Marxists lap it up and think it's going to bring out droves of their fellow Leftists and NOT all those people who want to keep their jobs.


There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.  Nobody wants London's 1952 killer smog.


Quote from: Chris24601;1142330

The only people who actually think Biden's winning are the brainwashed ones who only get news from the ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN family of known liars.


Fox News released a poll on Friday showing Biden with a 9 point lead in Michigan, a 13 point lead in Minnesota, and Pennsylvania by 11 points.  A month ago, a Fox poll showed Trump and Biden tied in Texas (Biden 45, Trump 44).  

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  

Polls make their methodology available for review.  A certain amount of variation is to be expected - not every sample is PERFECTLY created, but that's why running many different polls tends to give accurate data.  Likewise, tracking polls (polls repeated every month) are likely to identify trends - increase or decrease in support, even if they're not EXACTLY accurate.  Trump's problem with polls isn't that 'some are liars' - his problem with polls is that they are consistently painting a picture of a very narrow path to reelection.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Ghostmaker

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« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2020, 10:42:49 AM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355
There are ~55,000 coal workers in the United States.  Compare that to teachers (3.7 million), farmers, (2 million), or truck drivers (3.5 million).  That's not a lot of jobs to save, and most of them are not at risk solely because of environmental policies.  The availability of abundant natural gas from fracking makes a huge difference.

True, but what makes you think that natural gas won't be the next target for the green machine? Canada in particular has been having the devil's time because protesters keep trying to block NG pipelines.

You have idiots out there demanding we shift 90 percent of our power generation to 'renewable sources'. Oh, and they HATE fracking.

moonsweeper

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« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2020, 11:14:38 AM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1142355

What sources of polling do you think are most accurate?  


None of them because they are designed to shape thought, not report it.

...except maybe the internal polling that doesn't get released by the campaigns.
Given the 2016 election, I'm not sure that would even be accurate anymore.
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