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Author Topic: 2020 Election Commentary  (Read 5073 times)

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« on: July 17, 2020, 04:22:33 PM »
The non-Partisan Cook Political Report released an electoral map based on how they rate each state.  They currently rate 279 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Democrat and 187 electoral votes as solid/likely/lean Republican.  Compared to Real Clear Politics which includes Missouri and Texas as toss-ups, the Cook Political report is assigning them to Trump, along with Iowa and Ohio.  Even with that, winning the 72 electoral votes listed as 'toss-up' (which is comprised of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as a Maine district) Biden would win 279 to 259.  It would require Trump to run the table and poach at least one large State from the Lean Democrat column.  

Current polls in the 'toss-up' states are unfavorable to Trump (polling numbers from 538's polling average):

Arizona (Biden +2.6%)
Florida (Biden +6.8%)
Georgia (Biden +1.0%)
North Carolina (Biden +2.9%)

Even Ohio, which is listed as Lean Republican and was included with Trump's electoral totals is polling with Biden at +2.2%
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

RPGPundit

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2020, 05:31:35 PM »
It is interesting, but to say that any polling company is "non-partisan" is disingenuous. Considering that the vast majority of pollsters are sociologists and these are 96+% hard-left Democrats, it makes all polls inherently difficult to think of as reliable.

However, I DO agree that we have to be worried about this. That we can't just blindly assume that Trump is going to win and the Polls are lies. I understand why we would think that, because of 2016, The "Hillary has a 96% chance of winning!" Year where pollsters showed themselves for the blatant partisan hacks they really were. But an excess of confidence is extremely dangerous. We could be the ones in the bubble right now. And the volatility of this year is very hard to analyze.
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Mjollnir

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2020, 07:55:53 AM »
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2020, 10:06:34 PM »
If you're interested in betting on the election, I would start with Sports Geek.  They have links to legal betting sites and recommendations.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

GeekyBugle

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2020, 01:28:51 AM »
Your gloating won't age well, not only because the polls can't be trusted but because currently your fellow travelers are doing everything in their power to re-elect Trump. But you lefties never learn.
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

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Spinachcat

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2020, 05:47:55 AM »
November is ages away from now in political terms. Biden doesn't even have a VP, neither party has hosted their convention and there have been zero debates. All of these are major factors and they haven't occurred yet.

However, the MSM narrative is even more naked than in 2016. Everything is about demoralizing Trump supporters to keep them from them from voting and assuring the GenZ democrats they're about to win bigly so they vote for Dementia JoJo.

Considering the disastrous track records states had counting votes during the primaries, its possible it might be a week after the election before we have a winner. Voting irregularities, or at least accusations, will be flying fast and furious from all sides.

The only "sure thing" is the country will be further torn apart in November and beyond.

deadDMwalking

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2020, 02:20:06 PM »
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.  

I think a narrative that Trump can't win is potentially counterproductive for Democrats.  The importance of EVERY VOTER making their opinion known is crucial.  Toward that end, I'm in favor of increasing access to absentee ballots and increasing vote security by using paper ballots (having a paper trail) in the event there are irregularities.
When I say objectively, I mean 'subjectively'.  When I say literally, I mean 'figuratively'.  
And when I say that you are a horse's ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse's ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

VisionStorm

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2020, 04:05:08 PM »
Quote from: deadDMwalking;1140668
I don't think my tone could be read as gloating; I was reporting on what the current state of polling is.  It is my contention that enough people were certain that Clinton would win that they felt confident in casting a protest vote.  If Jill Stein's votes in Michigan had gone to Clinton, she would have carried the state.


Ah, yes! The good old "if the woman who barely got 1% of the total vote didn't exist $Hillary would have won" narrative.

Cuz Jill voters are totally interchangeable with $Hill voters, and there's no way that everyone who voted for Jill absolutely HATED $Hillary and would never have voted for her anyway. At least some of them must have been democratic hopefuls who just fell under the spell of Hippie Grandma and were led astray by her relative good looks despite her age and forgot to vote for the warmongering corporate candidate who stood against everything the average Green voter would believe in. There's NO way most of those people were #BernieOrJill voters who had already made up their minds NEVER to vote for the Queen of Warmongers well before election day and specifically made their way to the polls to tell Democrats that they could go fuck themselves. There HAS to be a way they would have voted for a neocon in liberal clothing instead.

Doc Sammy

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2020, 04:11:45 PM »
Quote from: Mjollnir;1140482
Unlike 2016, Trump is inspiring no enthusiasm. His voters are going to stay home in droves. If there's somewhere I can legally bet money on this election, please let me know.

I highly doubt that.Trump and Biden both have issues with enthusiasm right now but Biden's enthusiasm is completely non-existent while Trump's enthusiasm is depressed and with cancel culture at a fever pitch, it's difficult to tell how much of that is an actual lack of enthusiasm and how much is a lack of visible enthusiasm out of fear of being targeted by some SJW on social media AKA a silent majority

We won't know until November and Biden hasn't even picked a goddamn fucking running mate yet. I'm not making any predictions or giving any ballpark guesses until Joe Biden has a running mate for Vice President or we get a presidential debate on TV, whichever comes first.
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KingCheops

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2020, 04:41:00 PM »
6000 people turned out to the rally in Tulsa despite covid and domestic terrorists attacking attendees.  There's continuous Trump boat rallies on both coasts.  There was that big pro Trump, pro Police march in New York recently.  Trump is shattering Primary records in terms of number of votes.  Republicans are outregistering Democrats in most battlefield states.  Blacks are turning away from Biden or switching to Trump or Kanye.  Latinos are turning towards Trump (especially in Miami -- hmm wonder why).  Universities won't be open which means dipshit student votes will be way down.

Looks good to me.

Luckily up here in Soviet Canuckistan the Conservative Party leadership race saw a massive surge in registrations and even my hippie-dippie sister is starting to get fed up with Baron von Fancy Socks.

BoxCrayonTales

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2020, 04:51:19 PM »
It doesn't matter who wins. Everybody will lose.

I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.

Shrieking Banshee

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2020, 05:42:48 PM »
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales;1140685
I'll only vote for the candidate whose platform is to annex Mexico.

Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

Trond

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2020, 06:00:53 PM »
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

To make them pay for the wall that we no longer need?

VisionStorm

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2020 Election Commentary
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2020, 06:10:14 PM »
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?

Colonialism knows no bounds. smfh

BoxCrayonTales

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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2020, 06:14:18 PM »
Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1140692
Unless you live in Mexico why would you want it annexed?


To send the military against the cartels. Also, stop illegal immigration by bringing the USA to them.

Also, pre-empt China's world domination plot.