I know we'll still have our book collections, regardless; but what do you think about the state of the industry?  Is everyone but WOTC in trouble now?

My initial thoughts were that they should be OK and on the other hand the retail shops are closed, at least one major distributor is not paying out to their suppliers and our whole economy turns out to be super fragile so what do I know.

My local retail store is doing shipping, delivery and/or curbside pickup. I assume that a lot of other stores will start to follow suit, the longer this goes. Like any niche market I think there is a certain fragile aspect because if folks lose jobs they have less disposable income, but I assume businesses will find ways to get you stuff if you want to buy it.

People have a lot of leisure time right now, but even those with money are saving because of the uncertainty. So while there might be a boom in online game playing, there probably won't be a corresponding boom in sales. FLGSes are pretty marginal non-essential businesses with fixed costs, so I imagine a lot will fold. RPG publishers with dedicated office or warehouse space, or physical inventories, may have to let them go. Those that are primarily mail order have a better chance. Those that are electronic or use print on demand technologies are in the best shape, because they can keep servicing their customers fairly easily, and delay any new development projects until the world is back to normal. This includes the really small press/DIY side of the hobby.

If the Chinese Virus nonsense panic continues long enough to create a major recession, every hobby industry will suffer as spending money for luxuries dries up first. The unemployed focus on food and shelter, not new toys. The employed fear potential imminent unemployment and focus on savings.

However, a recession isn't terrible for the HOBBY (aka, actual play by gamers). Hobbyists who create freebies via blogs won't be affected, but small publishers and Kickstarters are fucked. The mid-tier companies are truly fucked and WotC will downsize to a skeleton staff while Hasbro tries to leverage the D&D brand into Hollywood and video games, but those are also bad avenues in a recession.  

But with people saving money, you will see more playing of what people already own. Plenty of blogs will pop up about dusting off fun games from the past years and blogs promoting RPGing and boardgaming as cheap fun.

In fact, a recession isn't the worst thing for the HOBBY - again, I mean the focus on actual play - because people will be looking for cheap escapism. I remember past recession gaming quite well. We gathered and played stuff we had owned forever, often brought pot luck homemade chow to share, and had a really wonderful time.

Don't get me wrong. I want to avoid a recession in the extreme as I'm partnered in a startup and I need the USA to be back spending like drunken sailors ASAP. I'm built to survive downturns, but they ain't fun which is why I have good memories of escaping into fantastical RPGing during those crapass days.

It's going to be hardest on the midsized companies who don't have parent companies with deep pockets and are still dependant on retail sales for the bulk of their business.  Little garage operations will survive just fine.

Most game stores and retail that doesn't involve food had to close down.
Ohio just extended the 'stay at home' order to May 1st.

- Ed C.

I both anticipate, and regret a return to the days of very few FLGSs.  Online shopping will rule the day.  

I've always liked to examine a book in hand, before buying it.  That way; I know my copy doesn't have flaws in the binding or printing, beyond what I am willing to accept.

Anything with high overhead requiring steady cash flow to cover is going to hurt for a while.  That said, one way that steady cash flow was covered for RPG companies in better times was churning out lots of mediocre stuff that people bought out of habit and boredom.

More people can play RPGs right now than ever before. So those with money have an easier time wrangling a group together. That will be a plus in sales, but the main cash flow, people who like a pretty bookshelf, should see a decline in spending. Owners and Readers are the whales of the RPG world.

In the short-term I expect sales to flatline for a bit, then steadily climb to levels below pre-pandemic, but much higher than all the closed industries.

Your job isn't as secure of law enforcement, healthcare worker, farmer, or grocer, but better than others as people get more bored and need cheap social things they can do from their homes.

Quote from: Razor 007;1125452I know we'll still have our book collections, regardless; but what do you think about the state of the industry?  Is everyone but WOTC in trouble now?

Worry when DriveThru goes under.

I sincerely hope that those of you who are making a living in the RPG Industry, can keep it in the black.  This is such a cool industry, and hobby.

Retailers will get hit hardest if they have very close margins. Some publishers will get hit as well for the same reason. The rest really depends on the situation and distribution. Any break along those lines of supply and who knows.

Quote from: Koltar;1125473Most game stores and retail that doesn't involve food had to close down.
Ohio just extended the 'stay at home' order to May 1st.

Koltar, what's your store's plan to survive?

The SBA loan program kicks in Friday. Hope the store owners are looking into how they might snag some of that tasty $2 trillion Kung Flu bill. As for you, if you're unemployed, make sure to apply ASAP to get the bonus cash.

Quote from: Rhedyn;1125488More people can play RPGs right now than ever before. So those with money have an easier time wrangling a group together. That will be a plus in sales, but the main cash flow, people who like a pretty bookshelf, should see a decline in spending. Owners and Readers are the whales of the RPG world.

In the short-term I expect sales to flatline for a bit, then steadily climb to levels below pre-pandemic, but much higher than all the closed industries.

Your job isn't as secure of law enforcement, healthcare worker, farmer, or grocer, but better than others as people get more bored and need cheap social things they can do from their homes.

Healthcare jobs are not as secure as you might think. Systems are losing millions of dollars each day right now as the money-making procedures are delayed and cancelled. As a result, systems are cutting back on a lot of future plans and burning reserves. While there is a lot of crisis coverage right now, there will be a sharp dip in healthcare work following the crisis phase until systems recover. During this time, workers will be overburdened and hiring freezes will be likely. Then, when they lift, those eager for jobs will have little bargaining power and may have to take much poorer offers than they otherwise could have.