Then why did real data from 1972 to 2012 track the LtG standard run model?
That doesn't change the simple fact that none of the Club of Rome's doom and gloom predictions came true. None of Paul Erlich's predictions came true either. Climate change alarmists also have a long track record of doom and gloom predictions that didn't come true.
Why are you using proven reserves?
Because that's the best measure of the resources that are actually available. Production is subject to various economical and political pressures. For example, the Biden administration blocking drilling in almost half of the National Petroleum Reserves for political reasons.
New methods of extraction is unconventional production.
Bullshit. All methods of extraction were new method of extraction at some point. If that means that they are unconventional methods of production, the all methods of production are unconventional methods of production. You are are just trying to come up with some justification for why this increase in proved reserves doesn't count because it wrecks your entire line of logic by disproving the premise that it is all built on.
Direct connection? When oil prices went up, demand didn't go down. When oil prices plummeted to zero or lower during the early stage of the pandemic, demand didn't soar. And do you know who sets prices? Not the end users but the ones who speculate at the bourse and negotiate with the sellers.
Worse, did you also look at demand per day, which is 100 Mbd? You got a field with potentially 5 billion barrels. How much supply is that for the world economy? 50 days?
I tell you what. We'll come back here in 50 days. If were are out of oil at that time, I will admit that you are right. That's not going to happen though. We have been about to run out of oil since the 70s and, yet, that somehow keeps not happening. Instead, we have substantially more proved reserves now than we had then.
Finally, what economical cost? Capex has been doubling the last two decades, and in exchange for what? A third of the previous increase in oil production? And covered by increasing debt, consisting of mostly junk bonds?
As I already pointed out and, I suspect, you are already aware, production is affected by factors that have nothing to do with resource availability or economics and everything to do with politics.