Quote from: migo on January 31, 2023, 07:55:43 AM
I would expect this to happen first with tabletop wargames. Games Workshop will lose their shit if that happens.

If they were smart, they'd get ahead of it now. Start offering STLs that incorporate the Warhammer model bases that can only be used their own painting-handles, then market the fukk out miniature accessories and paints. If they don't already have a design patent on model-base width, they should jump on that now.

There won't be one, at least not in the ways that people usually mean with "big" and "influential". 

What we might get is someone that puts a lot of refinement into a well-crafted product, somehow managing to have a handle on production costs, editing, art, mechanics that are interesting yet streamlined enough, and concepts in the content that mix well together. 

The critics will hate it.  It won't be novel or edgy or "artistic".  It won't cater to pet ideas on design.  It will use standard dice, in standard ways. It will almost assuredly have elves in it  Every last thing in it will have done by someone else before.   It sure as hell won't be political.  Somehow, despite all those limitations, the sum will be greater than the parts.  So it is fun and easy to prepare and play, accessible to beginners and rewarding for GMs who use it.

If you want a history of how that might come about, look at what happens in some kind of crafting, such as modern quilts or what people do with "scrap booking".  You have spurts of "tech" and supposed innovation used for their own sake, then those get used by someone to craft something useful and/or beautiful, who understands that tools are in service of the craft, not the other way around.     

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
I think computer tech is going to become less and less attainable over the next 5 years because of the semiconductor export bans on China

Only Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) tech is banned to China, they are working on banning the older Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) stuff but China still has the equipment they have and can produce cheap slow chips needed for 95% of the electronics out there. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and the a number of sites in the USA (including some being built in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona that will come online in the next year) will ramp up the production of EUV.

The whole chip crisis is a short term what if scenario that only really gets bad if China invades Taiwan and takes Taiwan EUV production out.

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
Modular RPGs with mini-transaction expansions rather than monolithic core rulebooks. Core rulebooks are where 95% of indie RPG system revenues come from, and  they barely produce revenue. Besides, I think that with the exception of D&D, RPGs are largely (shudder) undermonetized. No, really. Almost no one in this industry makes more than pocket change. I think it makes more sense to release a free bare-bones core rules and the offer paid expansions, somewhat akin to how GURPS used to work, but on a smaller scale. This would mean developers could more easily maintain revenue and could spend more time on each section, and players could pick and choose which components of the game they want to buy or to implement in each game.

Are you actually advocating for game developers to provide customers with LESS value for their money, then string them along with breadcrumbs? Hahaha! Good luck with that. I'm sure there are some stupid schmucks who will fall for it, but I've learned to spot a raw deal on sight.

Quote from: Effete on January 31, 2023, 08:36:26 AM

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
Modular RPGs with mini-transaction expansions rather than monolithic core rulebooks. Core rulebooks are where 95% of indie RPG system revenues come from, and  they barely produce revenue. Besides, I think that with the exception of D&D, RPGs are largely (shudder) undermonetized. No, really. Almost no one in this industry makes more than pocket change. I think it makes more sense to release a free bare-bones core rules and the offer paid expansions, somewhat akin to how GURPS used to work, but on a smaller scale. This would mean developers could more easily maintain revenue and could spend more time on each section, and players could pick and choose which components of the game they want to buy or to implement in each game.

Are you actually advocating for game developers to provide customers with LESS value for their money, then string them along with breadcrumbs? Hahaha! Good luck with that. I'm sure there are some stupid schmucks who will fall for it, but I've learned to spot a raw deal on sight.

You might be able to spot a raw deal, but how did you read that and come up with less value for money? Free core rules. Only pay for what interests you. A libertarian's dream.

Quote from: FingerRod on January 31, 2023, 08:45:13 AM

Quote from: Effete on January 31, 2023, 08:36:26 AM

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
Modular RPGs with mini-transaction expansions rather than monolithic core rulebooks. Core rulebooks are where 95% of indie RPG system revenues come from, and  they barely produce revenue. Besides, I think that with the exception of D&D, RPGs are largely (shudder) undermonetized. No, really. Almost no one in this industry makes more than pocket change. I think it makes more sense to release a free bare-bones core rules and the offer paid expansions, somewhat akin to how GURPS used to work, but on a smaller scale. This would mean developers could more easily maintain revenue and could spend more time on each section, and players could pick and choose which components of the game they want to buy or to implement in each game.

Are you actually advocating for game developers to provide customers with LESS value for their money, then string them along with breadcrumbs? Hahaha! Good luck with that. I'm sure there are some stupid schmucks who will fall for it, but I've learned to spot a raw deal on sight.

You might be able to spot a raw deal, but how did you read that and come up with less value for money? Free core rules. Only pay for what interests you. A libertarian's dream.

Ahh, missed the "free" part. Thanks!

I think a publisher could do well emulating what some video games do with "seasons". Seasons take a formula that works and refresh it for a short time to keep people interested.

1. Publish a basic rulebook. This is thin and meant to be referenced at the table. Coil-bound would be great.

2. Then, every season (e.g.: 1 year):

     a. Publish a lore book. This is nice hardcover that makes for pleasant evening reading. No crunch at all in this book and, honestly, most players won't read it, so it's more like a backgrounder for the GM.

     b. Publish a sandbox reference to go with the lore book. This would include a map, random encounters, sketches of adventure sites, etc.

     c. Publish adventures that are based on the lore book and sandbox reference. These flesh out the adventure sites and contain new creatures, rules modifications, new spells, whatever.

Quote from: rytrasmi on January 31, 2023, 11:18:06 AM
I think a publisher could do well emulating what some video games do with "seasons". Seasons take a formula that works and refresh it for a short time to keep people interested.

1. Publish a basic rulebook. This is thin and meant to be referenced at the table. Coil-bound would be great.

2. Then, every season (e.g.: 1 year):

     a. Publish a lore book. This is nice hardcover that makes for pleasant evening reading. No crunch at all in this book and, honestly, most players won't read it, so it's more like a backgrounder for the GM.

     b. Publish a sandbox reference to go with the lore book. This would include a map, random encounters, sketches of adventure sites, etc.

     c. Publish adventures that are based on the lore book and sandbox reference. These flesh out the adventure sites and contain new creatures, rules modifications, new spells, whatever.

I'd buy that if (b) had enough material for a sandbox campaign, something like Gygax's Yggsburgh say.  Or Skyrim in a box, without the major questlines (Alduin/Dawnguard/Dragonborn) - those would come in (c).

Hmm. Apart from Yggsburgh/Castle Zagyg, I can't really think of any print examples of this. Yet it seems a great approach.

Quote from: Ruprecht on January 31, 2023, 08:34:04 AM

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
I think computer tech is going to become less and less attainable over the next 5 years because of the semiconductor export bans on China

Only Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) tech is banned to China, they are working on banning the older Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) stuff but China still has the equipment they have and can produce cheap slow chips needed for 95% of the electronics out there. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and the a number of sites in the USA (including some being built in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona that will come online in the next year) will ramp up the production of EUV.

The whole chip crisis is a short term what if scenario that only really gets bad if China invades Taiwan and takes Taiwan EUV production out.

Just got watching this on the chip issue with China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFCJoq9iaik

I've worked for the Dutch company mentioned in the video for the last decade. All of what he is talking about is the reason the Koreans and Tawainese are building chip fabs in the Southwest USA so computer chips are unlikely to be a problem. Then again that guy is predicting a total collapse of world trade in the same time frame and if that happens computer prices (and the price of everything else) will jump.

Also this link has some information relating to the video:
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=54012

Quote from: Jam The MF on January 30, 2023, 06:54:53 PM
What will it be?  I'm not talking about a license.  I mean ideas, mechanics, methods, settings, style, etc.

What will be the most influential new thing?

Scratch and sniff beastiaries.

Quote from: Effete on January 31, 2023, 08:52:30 AM

Quote from: FingerRod on January 31, 2023, 08:45:13 AM

Quote from: Effete on January 31, 2023, 08:36:26 AM

Quote from: Fheredin on January 31, 2023, 08:16:28 AM
Modular RPGs with mini-transaction expansions rather than monolithic core rulebooks. Core rulebooks are where 95% of indie RPG system revenues come from, and  they barely produce revenue. Besides, I think that with the exception of D&D, RPGs are largely (shudder) undermonetized. No, really. Almost no one in this industry makes more than pocket change. I think it makes more sense to release a free bare-bones core rules and the offer paid expansions, somewhat akin to how GURPS used to work, but on a smaller scale. This would mean developers could more easily maintain revenue and could spend more time on each section, and players could pick and choose which components of the game they want to buy or to implement in each game.

Are you actually advocating for game developers to provide customers with LESS value for their money, then string them along with breadcrumbs? Hahaha! Good luck with that. I'm sure there are some stupid schmucks who will fall for it, but I've learned to spot a raw deal on sight.

You might be able to spot a raw deal, but how did you read that and come up with less value for money? Free core rules. Only pay for what interests you. A libertarian's dream.

Ahh, missed the "free" part. Thanks!

Anytime brochacho. I do get where you were coming from. We do not need the Call of Duty model anywhere near this industry.

Quote from: rytrasmi on January 31, 2023, 11:18:06 AM
I think a publisher could do well emulating what some video games do with "seasons". Seasons take a formula that works and refresh it for a short time to keep people interested.

1. Publish a basic rulebook. This is thin and meant to be referenced at the table. Coil-bound would be great.

2. Then, every season (e.g.: 1 year):

     a. Publish a lore book. This is nice hardcover that makes for pleasant evening reading. No crunch at all in this book and, honestly, most players won't read it, so it's more like a backgrounder for the GM.

     b. Publish a sandbox reference to go with the lore book. This would include a map, random encounters, sketches of adventure sites, etc.

     c. Publish adventures that are based on the lore book and sandbox reference. These flesh out the adventure sites and contain new creatures, rules modifications, new spells, whatever.

I love this.

I'd also like an old school Strategic Review type model, complete with the old typeface. But...I don't that that would be the next big thing

No one predicted roleplaying games before D&D.
No one predicted collectible card games before M:tG.

While it is a fun hypothetical, no one will be able to predict the next big thing.

However about every 10 years or so some huge thing seems to happen to tabletop gaming. Wargames in the 60's. RPG's in the 70's. CCG's in the 90's. D20 in the 00's. Crowdfunding around the 10's. Resurgence of D&D in the 20's.

Quote from: Thor's Nads on January 31, 2023, 01:49:23 PM
No one predicted roleplaying games before D&D.
No one predicted collectible card games before M:tG.

While it is a fun hypothetical, no one will be able to predict the next big thing.

However about every 10 years or so some huge thing seems to happen to tabletop gaming. Wargames in the 60's. RPG's in the 70's. CCG's in the 90's. D20 in the 00's. Crowdfunding around the 10's. Resurgence of D&D in the 20's.

I vote naked chicks wrestling in pudding for the 30's, let's make it happen!