What's WoTC's current RPG market share?

RPGPundit · August 29, 2009, 03:22:53 AM

I asked this originally because I'd seen someone somewhere claim that their market share had diminished considerably. It sounds like most of the posts here are just speculation; I would guess that other claim was just speculation too, though.

RPGPundit

Lawbag · August 29, 2009, 08:27:02 AM

Unless someone from WOTC got on these forums, or someone from their accounts department decided to make a few posts, everything else would be speculation.

GnomeWorks · August 29, 2009, 08:44:28 AM

I would be much more interested in seeing how many players came from WoW and did not play D&D prior to 4e.

I guess a more general question of "how many new players has 4e brought into the hobby" would be acceptable. But I think that the MMO market is the most relevant; it seems the most likely source of new blood for the future.

Lawbag · September 02, 2009, 03:21:59 PM

Hard financial statistics is what we want, and nothing less.

Mistwell · September 02, 2009, 04:00:37 PM

Quote from: Lawbag;326109Hard financial statistics is what we want, and nothing less.

Then you get nothing. I am not even sure WOTC would have hard financial stats showing their exact market share.

ICv2 comes the closest to tracking this data and releasing it to the public. See, for instance, this:

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/15707.html
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/15715.html

You can read some reporter speculation from the LA Examiner here:

http://www.examiner.com/x-6911-RPG-Examiner~y2009m9d1-Roleplaying-games-weather-the-economic-downturn

QuoteThe charts are based on interviews with retailers, distributors, and manufacturers. No specific numbers are provided. However, judging that Song of Ice and Fire and Warhammer 40K: Dark Heresy are relative newcomers, it can be interpreted that there is indeed a large gap between D&D and other role-playing games; newcomers with decent sales numbers can enter the top five list with ease. If that's true, it doesn't speak well to the World of Darkness sales numbers.

Using these two data points, it seems role-playing as a hobby continues to hobble along, largely supported by Dungeons & Dragons.

thecasualoblivion · September 03, 2009, 10:48:39 AM

I would say WotC's market share is relatively the same as what it was during 3.5E. Most D&D players have migrated to 4E, and new and returning players have picked up the slack from those who rejected the new system. The OGL community has broken from WotC's D&D, but its debatable how important they ever were to WotC.

Thanlis · September 03, 2009, 12:18:38 PM

Quote from: thecasualoblivion;326445I would say WotC's market share is relatively the same as what it was during 3.5E. Most D&D players have migrated to 4E, and new and returning players have picked up the slack from those who rejected the new system. The OGL community has broken from WotC's D&D, but its debatable how important they ever were to WotC.

I wouldn't go that far at all. I mean, I suppose it's sort of possible, but I don't think there's any evidence to support it.

mhensley · September 03, 2009, 01:21:15 PM

Quote from: thecasualoblivion;326445I would say WotC's market share is relatively the same as what it was during 3.5E. Most D&D players have migrated to 4E, and new and returning players have picked up the slack from those who rejected the new system. The OGL community has broken from WotC's D&D, but its debatable how important they ever were to WotC.

I seriously doubt that more than half of 3e players converted over to 4e.

Benoist · September 03, 2009, 01:23:09 PM

Quote from: mhensley;326510I seriously doubt that more than half of 3e players converted over to 4e.

Ditto. I doubt that "most D&D players converted to 4e".

Nicephorus · September 03, 2009, 02:20:44 PM

Quote from: mhensley;326510I seriously doubt that more than half of 3e players converted over to 4e.

If they had, Pathfinder (which is only a portion of 3e players) wouldn't be doing so well. 4e is still by far the biggest game around but I doubt that the sales numbers are as good as for 3e. Though market share might be close to the same if overall industy sales have dropped as well.

Thanlis · September 03, 2009, 02:32:27 PM

Quote from: Nicephorus;326524If they had, Pathfinder (which is only a portion of 3e players) wouldn't be doing so well. 4e is still by far the biggest game around but I doubt that the sales numbers are as good as for 3e. Though market share might be close to the same if overall industy sales have dropped as well.

I tried to buy Pathfinder at my FLGS and they wouldn't let me because I'd already purchased 4e.

Seanchai · September 03, 2009, 03:50:09 PM

Quote from: Thanlis;326535I tried to buy Pathfinder at my FLGS and they wouldn't let me because I'd already purchased 4e.

Pssst. No. It should be: I tried to buy Pathfinder at my FLGS and they wouldn't let me because I'd already purchased 3e.

Seanchai

Thanlis · September 03, 2009, 04:08:32 PM

Quote from: Seanchai;326580Pssst. No. It should be: I tried to buy Pathfinder at my FLGS and they wouldn't let me because I'd already purchased 3e.

Actually, I might have purchased it this last Sunday but they didn't have it in stock. I expect they sold out already.

Mistwell · September 03, 2009, 04:27:22 PM

Quote from: mhensley;326510I seriously doubt that more than half of 3e players converted over to 4e.

And I seriously think more than 75% did.

Mistwell · September 03, 2009, 04:34:00 PM

Quote from: Benoist;326511Ditto. I doubt that "most D&D players converted to 4e".

Well, according to the old surveys, a huge chunk of "most D&D players" still play 1E

However, as between 3.x / d20 and 4e, I think a large majority converted to playing mostly 4e.