Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 12:47:09 AM

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 04, 2022, 09:29:31 PM
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OneDnD is going to have to beat *all* of their VTT competitors, all of their character creation tool competitors, and best them both at a price point people are comfortable with.  All while guaranteeing lifelong access to content that won't get deleted or edited for wokeness. 
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No they wont.

They have D&D. They just have to be "Good Enough."

Now, they can't completely suck. But as long as they are on par, the market is theirs.

Because come 2024 all official D&D VTT adventures, books etc., will be available only on one platform.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee on September 04, 2022, 11:30:52 PM
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And you nailed the VTT aspect. Most hot and up and coming VTT are on a one time purchase and you can pay to have it hosted on a server separately. How does WOTC plan to compete with that.

They don't need to. They have D&D.

All these other VTT have only done relatively well because WotC could not get their own VTT off the ground for various reasons.

So WotC had to play ball, allowing them to integrate with D&D beyond, and have adventure paths in their format.

The problem all these other VTT have is that the majority of their user base exclusively plays WotC D&D.

Now they are going to be cut out. No more D&D beyond, or AP integration.

The real question is this; come 2024, how do they plan to to compete with WotC?

Market Leader + Good Enough = No can defend.

You give them too much credit. TSR and WoTC have *never* landed a winning digital product other than the FR Atlas, which is a niche product.

It doesn't have to be "good enough." It has to "not suck too much." There is a distinct difference between the two. If someone else's product works with less hassle even if it has less features, that's who they have to compete with.  That's key: if it is too difficult to use easily with a steeper learning curve than their competitors, they'll lose.

Right now, I use a combination of Campaign Cartographer 3 suite and various other tools to create battle maps on a VTT.  But that's me - I'm an engineer who understands how CAD systems work, so CC3 had a lower learning curve for me. I've tried various VTTs and they all suck to one degree or another because they try to do too much - acting like a virtual DM rather than just displaying a battlemap with representations if the PCs and NPCs being the big one. So I typically just use a
vertically mounted camera for display of the real tabletop or a direct display of maps in CC3 and use Skype for comms.

That's going to be the problem for them - integration.  No one has truly done an integrated system that combines a VTT with a virtual DM with a document library. Maybe I'll be wrong and OneD&D will achieve it. Their track record says otherwise.

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 12:47:09 AM

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 04, 2022, 09:29:31 PM
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OneDnD is going to have to beat *all* of their VTT competitors, all of their character creation tool competitors, and best them both at a price point people are comfortable with.  All while guaranteeing lifelong access to content that won't get deleted or edited for wokeness. 
...

No they wont.

They have D&D. They just have to be "Good Enough."

Now, they can't completely suck. But as long as they are on par, the market is theirs.

Because come 2024 all official D&D VTT adventures, books etc., will be available only on one platform.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee on September 04, 2022, 11:30:52 PM
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And you nailed the VTT aspect. Most hot and up and coming VTT are on a one time purchase and you can pay to have it hosted on a server separately. How does WOTC plan to compete with that.

They don't need to. They have D&D.

All these other VTT have only done relatively well because WotC could not get their own VTT off the ground for various reasons.

So WotC had to play ball, allowing them to integrate with D&D beyond, and have adventure paths in their format.

The problem all these other VTT have is that the majority of their user base exclusively plays WotC D&D.

Now they are going to be cut out. No more D&D beyond, or AP integration.

The real question is this; come 2024, how do they plan to to compete with WotC?

Market Leader + Good Enough = No can defend.

Time will tell, but I think WotC might take a severe hit in non-English-speaking markets, because D&D generally isn't as dominant there as in North America.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM
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As for Roll20 et all competing... IF they're smart they will cut their prices. I'm betting on Roll20 going even woker.

Also, since people BOUGHT those books they own them, I don't think even WotC will be stupid enough to start removing access to stuff people paid for from day 1.

I don't think they will. Everything was bought through D&D beyond which they now own, and are going to integrate with their VTT.

It would be easy for them to honor All past purchases for the D&D VTT. Because they are a "legacy" customer it would be smart to give them a 'coupon' or some kind of introductory discount to initially sign up for the VTT.

If anything for the first several years WotC can afford to have the subscription fee's for their VTT to be ridiculously low.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM

My guess is that those who ONLY play 5e will migrate to WotC's VTT.

Those who play other games besides probably won't, they already do the work for those other games.

True. There is certainly nothing compelling them to go.

The issue is with the established VTT's; how do they react to losing half of their subscription base (5e players) to WotC's VTT?

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 05, 2022, 09:19:35 AM
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You give them too much credit. TSR and WoTC have *never* landed a winning digital product other than the FR Atlas, which is a niche product.

True. But the guy that they hired (Tim Fields) to make this stuff work; has landed winning product.

The proof will be in the pudding however.

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 05, 2022, 09:19:35 AM
...It doesn't have to be "good enough." It has to "not suck too much." There is a distinct difference between the two. If someone else's product works with less hassle even if it has less features, that's who they have to compete with.  That's key: if it is too difficult to use easily with a steeper learning curve than their competitors, they'll lose.

WotC is helped in this case by virtue of all the other VTT's not being very intuitive to use themselves.

And by "Good Enough": I mean basically on par with everything else out there.

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 05, 2022, 09:19:35 AM
...That's going to be the problem for them - integration.  No one has truly done an integrated system that combines a VTT with a virtual DM with a document library. Maybe I'll be wrong and OneD&D will achieve it. Their track record says otherwise.

Well, they are not advertising or promoting a virtual DM to my knowledge.

So in theory their integration should be no more difficult than what is already being done when D&D beyond AP's are available to buy through roll20.

Just with much better graphics.

Of course this all depends on the execution. Yes, they could utterly pooch it. But they are not really doing anything out-there technology wise. They are essentially dipping their toes into proven tech, just with a bigger budget than anyone else.

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 04:05:31 PMBut the guy that they hired (Tim Fields) to make this stuff work; has landed winning product.

True but in a different industry. Collective power cards didn't make D&D 4e a mega success (nor where the cards ultra great sellers on their own) despite super successful MTG people working on the project.

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 04:05:31 PM

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM
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As for Roll20 et all competing... IF they're smart they will cut their prices. I'm betting on Roll20 going even woker.

Also, since people BOUGHT those books they own them, I don't think even WotC will be stupid enough to start removing access to stuff people paid for from day 1.

I don't think they will. Everything was bought through D&D beyond which they now own, and are going to integrate with their VTT.

It would be easy for them to honor All past purchases for the D&D VTT. Because they are a "legacy" customer it would be smart to give them a 'coupon' or some kind of introductory discount to initially sign up for the VTT.

If anything for the first several years WotC can afford to have the subscription fee's for their VTT to be ridiculously low.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, I meant removing your access to stuff you bought if you don't migrate to ONED&D. Since when you bought it it wasn't tied to any particular VTT I don't think they would, should maybe not even could remove your access to it.

Which creates an interesting conundrum: Lets say I own several of their 5e shit on Roll20 which I use on my games and I don't want to migrate to their VTT. Now what? Would it be legal for them to remove my access to the stuff I paid for to use on my current VTT?

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 04:05:31 PM

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM

My guess is that those who ONLY play 5e will migrate to WotC's VTT.

Those who play other games besides probably won't, they already do the work for those other games.

True. There is certainly nothing compelling them to go.

The issue is with the established VTT's; how do they react to losing half of their subscription base (5e players) to WotC's VTT?

Assuming they will lose ALL of the 5e players, I'm not so sure about that.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 04:16:42 PM

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 04:05:31 PM

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM
...
As for Roll20 et all competing... IF they're smart they will cut their prices. I'm betting on Roll20 going even woker.

Also, since people BOUGHT those books they own them, I don't think even WotC will be stupid enough to start removing access to stuff people paid for from day 1.

I don't think they will. Everything was bought through D&D beyond which they now own, and are going to integrate with their VTT.

It would be easy for them to honor All past purchases for the D&D VTT. Because they are a "legacy" customer it would be smart to give them a 'coupon' or some kind of introductory discount to initially sign up for the VTT.

If anything for the first several years WotC can afford to have the subscription fee's for their VTT to be ridiculously low.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, I meant removing your access to stuff you bought if you don't migrate to ONED&D. Since when you bought it it wasn't tied to any particular VTT I don't think they would, should maybe not even could remove your access to it.

Which creates an interesting conundrum: Lets say I own several of their 5e shit on Roll20 which I use on my games and I don't want to migrate to their VTT. Now what? Would it be legal for them to remove my access to the stuff I paid for to use on my current VTT?

Quote from: Jaeger on September 05, 2022, 04:05:31 PM

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM

My guess is that those who ONLY play 5e will migrate to WotC's VTT.

Those who play other games besides probably won't, they already do the work for those other games.

True. There is certainly nothing compelling them to go.

The issue is with the established VTT's; how do they react to losing half of their subscription base (5e players) to WotC's VTT?

Assuming they will lose ALL of the 5e players, I'm not so sure about that.

So, let's say I currently use Hero Lab and roll20. Or Fantasy Grounds and Excel. Or *any* combination of things where I'm relying upon WotC to play nice so that I don't have to do a bunch of work myself.  For arguments sake, Hero Lab and roll20.  Now WotC shits all over me by not letting them compete. If I have the time, I continue to use Hero Lab and roll20, just doing everything myself and not buying any of their digital product.

I can see WotC screwing this up by not allowing any competition - RPGers can be a spiteful lot. We saw how well things went when there was a pushback against PDF products a decade or so ago - lots of 0-day PDFs showed up on various sites.  Was it enough to make a dent? No, but it was enough for them to sit up and take notice.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee on September 05, 2022, 04:08:23 PM
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True but in a different industry. Collective power cards didn't make D&D 4e a mega success (nor where the cards ultra great sellers on their own) despite super successful MTG people working on the project.

Apples and oranges.

WotC is merely introducing an in-house version of proven technology that people already like and use to play D&D online.

It should be a lay-up for them.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 04:16:42 PM

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, I meant removing your access to stuff you bought if you don't migrate to ONED&D. Since when you bought it it wasn't tied to any particular VTT I don't think they would, should maybe not even could remove your access to it.

Which creates an interesting conundrum: Lets say I own several of their 5e shit on Roll20 which I use on my games and I don't want to migrate to their VTT. Now what? Would it be legal for them to remove my access to the stuff I paid for to use on my current VTT?

I don't think that they will remove access to what will effectively be digital "Legacy Product".

But I'm sure all post 2024 digital product will only be compatible with the D&D VTT.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on September 05, 2022, 01:16:56 AM

Assuming they will lose ALL of the 5e players, I'm not so sure about that.

They don't need to lose all - Just a majority would be a big financial hit.

Quote from: 3catcircus on September 05, 2022, 04:34:49 PM
So, let's say I currently use Hero Lab and roll20. Or Fantasy Grounds and Excel. Or *any* combination of things where I'm relying upon WotC to play nice so that I don't have to do a bunch of work myself.  For arguments sake, Hero Lab and roll20.  Now WotC shits all over me by not letting them compete. If I have the time, I continue to use Hero Lab and roll20, just doing everything myself and not buying any of their digital product.

I can see WotC screwing this up by not allowing any competition - RPGers can be a spiteful lot. We saw how well things went when there was a pushback against PDF products a decade or so ago - lots of 0-day PDFs showed up on various sites.  Was it enough to make a dent? No, but it was enough for them to sit up and take notice.

Why would WotC allow anyone to integrate with new D&D beyond material after 2024? That would defeat the whole purpose of them developing their in-house VTT.

Roll20 etc., are free to "compete", they just will not have the new official WotC integration like they had in the past...

And WotC can easily get around much of the bitterness by offering sweetheart sign up deals to those that bought legacy product.

I suspect that WotC is not overly concerned about GM's like you with the time to continue using what you have anyway. Like I hinted at in a previous post; their goal With the VTT is to monetize the player base with microtransactions.

Foundry already scrapes D&D Beyond for content. If WoTC cuts off Fantasy Grounds or Roll20 for new content I can guarantee that people will scrape content for that.

It is not the user that takes the huge hit, it is the VTT company not selling future WoTC product.

Now, I play many other things than D&D 5e so I will have a good use case for Fantasy Grounds. That does not help replace the WoTC revenue they get if it goes away. And they already are not hosting any of the play test materials.

Quote from: Myrdin Potter on September 05, 2022, 06:07:34 PM
Foundry already scrapes D&D Beyond for content.

What do you mean scrapes?

Quote from: jeff37923 on September 03, 2022, 10:42:41 AM
I remember  when Amazon's Kindle system "burped" and caused everyone to lose their books which were on the Kindle subscription model. There were a lot of pissed off customers. I wasn't worried, because all of my books were either dead tree or PDF and couldn't be touched by Kindle.

I remember when Kindle decided one publisher didn't have the right to sell a public domain book they were selling and disappeared every already purchased copy. Poof, gone from you Kindle. I assume they got their money back or something. The point is that kind of power is scary and easily abused.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee on September 05, 2022, 06:19:15 PM

Quote from: Myrdin Potter on September 05, 2022, 06:07:34 PM
Foundry already scrapes D&D Beyond for content. If WoTC cuts off Fantasy Grounds or Roll20 for new content I can guarantee that people will scrape content for that.

It is not the user that takes the huge hit, it is the VTT company not selling future WoTC product.

Now, I play many other things than D&D 5e so I will have a good use case for Fantasy Grounds. That does not help replace the WoTC revenue they get if it goes away. And they already are not hosting any of the play test materials.

What do you mean scrapes?

It means that Foundry has a process that looks at D&D Beyond material and copies it into their own system. (I don't know Foundry - but that's what the term means.) Digital user content like text or images are very easy to copy.

https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/what-is-web-scraping-and-how-to-use-it/

It also links via a Chrome extension and lets you do VTT stuff with the base content.

WoTC has not stopped that, yet.

Quote from: jhkim on September 05, 2022, 07:41:08 PMIt means that Foundry has a process that looks at D&D Beyond material and copies it into their own system. (I don't know Foundry - but that's what the term means.) Digital user content like text or images are very easy to copy.

Ah that makes sense. Yeah Foundry is awesome as it courts fan material. Including useful modules and such.

In this sense WOTC is competing with the 'modding scene' effectively.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee on September 04, 2022, 02:10:50 PM

Quote from: jhkim on September 04, 2022, 12:35:22 PMThe people who are playing WotC D&D are doing so because they find it fun, not because the evil corporation has warped their brains.

And most people drink and smoke because they like the experience as well. Gambling is also fun for gambling addicts. And we are not even talking about current D&D but theoretical service based D&D, so your example is just completly pointless.

Im not talking about some abstract satanic symbol printed in a magic card. Im talking about recorded phenomenon, with a TON of research conducted on how to extract thousands of dollars from the people with poor self control.
I advocate for stronger self control over government regulation, but I also advocate for ethics on the side of people that release a product as well.

Is conning the elderly with overpriced jewelry OK because 'they have fun' buying it? Nobody warps their brains to buy stuff.

I'm not sure what research specifically you're talking about here as applying to OneD&D. You're implying that it will be addictive and marketing is abusing addicts. That seems similar to arguments that MMORPGs like World of Warcraft are addictive (as well as social media like Twitter). Here's what I've looked over about such addiction -

http://www.nickyee.com/daedalus/gateway_addiction.html

I don't think these apply to a virtual tabletop. I don't think MMORPG studies are applicable more broadly to other RPGs, and even then, I take just about any psychological studies with a big grain of salt because of problems with reproducibility.

I might well have criticisms of WotC's offering once I get the details, but I don't see a subscription virtual tabletop as inherently preying on addiction or similarly unethical. I suspect I will consider it similar to any other corporate-produced game.

Quote from: jhkim on September 06, 2022, 09:00:45 PMI'm not sure what research specifically you're talking about here as applying to OneD&D.

So I guess your completly ignorant of the microtransactional design process, skinner boxes, or the loot box model sweeping through videogames, and your last experience is purely with MMOs like World of Warcraft.

OK to summarize it briefly, with an inexact example:

Yes things like WOW are skinner boxes. You devote time to have the mental satisfaction of seeing your numbers go up. And there are a few rare addicts for whom that consumes all their time. Thats not what I am talking about.

Imagine if in World of Warcraft, you made it that ressurection after dying took 10 times as long (like 10 minutes), or instantly if you paid a dollar. But not even a dollar directly. 125 Warcraft coins. And you can only buy Warcraft coins in bundles of 670 for 8 dollars, with a 10% discount if you grabbed a bundle of 6,030 coins.

And then you strung that allong through all the core gameplay. Yes you can level up for killing monsters, but there is a cap on your progress (first every 10 levels, then every 5 levels, then 3, then 1 level) unless you get a  mega crystal which is intentionally designed to only drop once every 7 days (and only at 12 AM on a tuesday and if you miss that period its another 7 days wait)....Or of course instantly with 67 megaboons (only 5 cents per 10 boons).

And then lootboxes might be instead of paying directly for Warcraft coins or Megaboons, or Thriftgifts (which is a thing that actually allows you to repair your epic gear, which breaks down otherwise), you paid for a random chance to get one of them. A gamble effectively, except you don't even get money as a payout.

All of these tricks are designed to make you loose track of how much money you spend, or tap into the gambling addict, or people with weak self control, or people that want to play with friends, or just prey on human weakness. This IS recorded to work extremly effectivly and make so much money that the core experience is free.....Because the core experience is basically unplayable without either 25 times the normal free time required, or a continous stream of about 5-10 dollars an hour (after say the first 3 being free-ish).

How is this relevant to D&D?

Because WOTC hired basically a head honcho of such a buisness model to work on their VTT framework.