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Author Topic: Predictions for 2016?  (Read 4562 times)

P&P

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 03:51:12 pm »
I'll predict some serious kickstarter-related outrage (as in, more outrage than has already happened to date).  An exceptionally big kickstarter goes spectacularly wrong.
OSRIC--Ten years old, and still no kickstarter!
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Omega

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2015, 04:46:41 pm »
Quote from: ptingler;870947
This continues to baffle me year after year. I work for a charter school and the company runs both television and radio ads. I don't know who is in charge of these things at Hasbro/WoTC, but it's a weird way to run a business to do no ads.


This may be due to Solomon blockading any type of filming. That might be so broad as to include  advertisements. Unlikely. But things have been a total mess over that. Thanks alot Loraine!

The more likely reason is that marketing for 4e was a total bust and was part of the reson more people moved to 3e Pathfinder. Do-Not-Demean-Your-Fanbase!

But in general Hasborg sucks at advertising and marketing if it isnt a priority. Their rep for bad marketing of their fringe IPs is long.

Omega

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2015, 04:55:30 pm »
Quote from: P&P;871210
I'll predict some serious kickstarter-related outrage (as in, more outrage than has already happened to date).  An exceptionally big kickstarter goes spectacularly wrong.


Unless its a big company, and even then it may not, it will just be a blip on the radar.

Too many backers have really good experiences. The failures are spaced apart and often in lits of un-related areas that no one cares.

Worse is that all it takes is a little song and dance and many backers will just sigh, say "oh well its only 200$" and move on. Especially if the wait has been long. and in many cases we are talking years of wait.

What can you do when publisher BURNS product and threatens to burn more if anyone else complains about the delay. This happened.

What can you do when the onus of seeking restitution is totally on you and if enough time has passed then filing for a refund from banks or amazon, etc may become hard if not impossible?

KS and the like work. But you really have to weigh each one now for risk.

Omega

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2015, 05:18:59 pm »
Quote from: RPGPundit;870921
What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?

Will the OSR still be king?

Will 5e keep doing well?

What will be the hot news?

Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?

1: stuff.

2: What OSR? :D

3: WOTCs ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. They still have a few years to totally botch things before 6e.

4: WOTC doing a 5e version of something fans have been wanting. Ravenloft maybe. Personally I'd prefer Spelljammer.

5: Of course. Something insanely trivial like Aleenas hair being too curly.

TrippyHippy

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2015, 04:45:43 am »
My first and foremost hope is that the various Kickstarters that I have been waiting for years for actually ends up being delivered next year. Not naming names, but the major frustration from last year is just how few RPG companies that I've backed actually deliver on their own estimated time plans. I will mention Atlas Games, however, who delivered the excellent Feng Shui 2 precisely on time.

My second hope is that we see a final end game to the RuneQuest/BRP schisms with less attempts at providing more 'core rules' books from different, competing companies. There has been way too many overhauls and confusion in this line over the last 10 years, but in Glorantha's 50th Year we can see a full colour RuneQuest game realised to match the Guide to Glorantha set and, following on, a lot of other standalone games with related self contained systems that are tailored to the setting provided. I'm hopeful, in particular, for a Mythic Greece game written by Pete Nash.

My third hope is that we continue to see an expansion on actual playing numbers in D&D and other games, through mechanisms like the Adventurer's League. I'd also like to see more settings for 5E like Primeval Thule along with scripted campaigns and adventures, from both Wizards and third parties (Dark Albion!). Official PDF releases on drivethrurg of the core three books would be nice too.

The whole White Wolf/Onyx Path thing looks a little clearer, and positive, with recent statements. Basically, the old/new WoD division is no more with the 'Chronicles of Darkness' (previously nWoD) now being a separate brand and line. The 'Classic WoD' lines will continue in their 20th Anniversary forms, including Wraith and Changeling, but the mooted 4E Vampire game has now been assimilated into the new White Wolf's plans for the WoD line. That is, we will likely see a new line of games designed to be in tune with online applications of the various games and a reemphasis on retail sales. Not likely to be happening for a while though I think - just sit back and enjoy the ongoing Onyx Path publications in the meantime.

Mongoose's Traveller 2nd Edition ought to be good, I think, too. It's basically the same old game with a bit of tweaking here or there - and there are some great settings land Campaigns lined up - hopefully including, but not limited to, Pirates of Drinax, Prime Directive, Mindjammer, the Clement Sector, and 2300AD. With an improved layout and appearance, and a mooted intro Box Set in the making, I would hope it would finally be recognised as THE sci-fi equivalent of D&D (as it always has been in my mind).

There are some other games likely to be kickstarted in the next year - although my own patience for backing unreliable 'creative projects' is a bit stretched now, I have to say. I just hope those companies that run them take a bit more time planning them properly in the future.

And for me, arriving back in NZ just in time for the New Year (after a novel Christmas spent in the Middle East), I hope that my two planned games (Mage: The Ascension and the new Traveller edition) are well received, along with my Adventurer's League duties, while I get a bit more chance to play in other people's campaigns. Oh, and Kublacon is coming up! :)

Happy New Year!
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 04:49:24 am by TrippyHippy »
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mAcular Chaotic

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2015, 02:12:57 pm »
Quote from: S'mon;870998
(most Pathfinder stuff is very easy to use in 5e).


What makes you say that? All the PF stuff is filled with tons of different rules and bonuses and mechanics that makes it seem hard to convert over.
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S'mon

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« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2015, 08:53:49 pm »
Quote from: mAcular Chaotic;871388
What makes you say that? All the PF stuff is filled with tons of different rules and bonuses and mechanics that makes it seem hard to convert over.

I take a pencil and strike through that stuff. 3e/PF uses similar stats to 5e, AC can be directly converted just by taking out the special 3e/PF bonuses that don't apply. Damage & hp can port over directly, or increase hp when you lower AC.

I've been running "Shards of Sin" for PF, converted to 5e. I found especially the PC-class PF enemies very easy to convert, and monsters convert easily too, if I'm not using the 5e equivalent. Special monster abilities can be used as-is, just halve the DC over 10 for saves.

Obviously there is some work, but 3e/PF is vastly closer to 5e than either is to 4e.
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cranebump

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2015, 08:58:29 pm »
Prediction: The crotchety brigade's lawn gets even bigger.
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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2016, 06:38:53 pm »
Quote from: Shipyard Locked;870923
I believe 5e will continue to consolidate market share and Pathfinder will begin to visibly falter. I just don't think the latter has the right ruleset for where the zeitgeist is going.


This seems extremely likely to me too.
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« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2016, 06:39:32 pm »
Quote from: Warthur;870952
Interestingly, comparing 2013 and 2015 figures from ICv2 as compiled by ENWorld here, the RPG market actually grew in the last couple of years. (And bear in mind that ICv2, by the nature of their data collection processes, are blind to direct sales and PDF sales.) $15 million to $25 million is, proportionally, a similar amount of growth to what boardgames and non-collectable card and dice gamers managed.

Interestingly, it seems to be the miniatures section of the market which is stagnating.


Very interesting news. I wonder if it has to do with the fact that 5e is the least minis-depending rule-set WoTC has ever put out as far as D&D is concerned?
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Frey

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Predictions for 2016?
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2016, 06:52:11 pm »
Hopefully in 2016 Zack S will remake the Realm of Chaos books, as he said he would.

S'mon

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« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2016, 07:07:01 pm »
Quote from: RPGPundit;871987
This seems extremely likely to me too.

From what I'm seeing, 5e is clearly dominating in the marketplace, while Pathfinder retains a strong following among those who like that sort of thing. But lots of people were playing Pathfinder while not really liking it, because there was not a good alternative available (except 3e of course). 5e has taken that market.

I think there will continue to be a big niche for PF, a medium niche for OSR, and a small niche for 4e, a very different game which can still do stuff other D&Ds can't. But 5e's playability and lack of bloat assures it a dominant position.
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Warthur

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« Reply #27 on: January 05, 2016, 03:21:14 am »
Quote from: RPGPundit;871988
Very interesting news. I wonder if it has to do with the fact that 5e is the least minis-depending rule-set WoTC has ever put out as far as D&D is concerned?

I think minis purchased for the purpose of playing D&D is a tiny drop in the minis market when you compare them to minis bought for wargaming purposes (particularly considering how many play without minis altogether - even people I knew who did 4E used tokens rather than minis).

I suspect the stagnation of the miniatures market has more to do with the creative slump Games Workshop is in.
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Omega

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« Reply #28 on: January 05, 2016, 04:52:59 am »
While Wargaming minis are in a slump or at least levelled out. Board gaming and all purpose minis are on a big upswing. No idea why but some publishers and would be publishers have it in their heads that a minis heavy game sells better. Some are probably misreading Reapers successes without looking at the larger market.

WizKids seems to be plugging away. But not as big as they were in years past. Havent heard much of that D&D tactical game since it came out.

Warthur

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« Reply #29 on: January 05, 2016, 11:47:51 am »
My hunch is that Games Workshop sales are going down precipitously, whilst other minis producers are filling the gap sufficiently to stop the minis sale total from dropping. The new Warhammer: Age of Sigmar sank like a stone around here and it feels like their cynical "snag customers when they are 11, pump them for all they are worth, then don't bother retaining them because there's always more 11 year olds" strategy is beginning to go to pieces.
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