What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
Will the OSR still be king?
Will 5e keep doing well?
What will be the hot news?
Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
I believe 5e will continue to consolidate market share and Pathfinder will begin to visibly falter. I just don't think the latter has the right ruleset for where the zeitgeist is going.
Hopefully Chaosium's new version of Runequest will come out... and then they can get around to whatever they've got planned that's not Glorantha or CoC.
I'm still hoping for Chronicles of Future Earth for RQ6... though that's in doubt now.
5e seems to be sputtering a bit from my vantage point. No one I know around here is playing it. Our Pathfinder GM bought it but he's yet to run it. There at least one hard core min-maxer in the group who's not going to go without a fight... and half of them are bought into PF with books and software, which creates some inertia against change.
What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
It will continue to diminish because Hasbro won't fund advertising and marketing and the rest of the "big dogs" want to sell coffee table art textbooks instead of games.
Meanwhile, the boardgame hobby will continue to grow.
Will the OSR still be king?
I must have missed the part when the OSR became king.
Will 5e keep doing well?
I expect WotC will license some D&D video games this year, especially with the WarCraft movie on the way.
As for the RPG, the only people I know who play it are the Living Forgotten Realms players and that seems to be chugging along.
What will be the hot news?
New setting for 5e? Maybe a contest like back in 3e?
Old setting brought back?
Some established company crapping out and vanishing?
Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
Absolutely assured, and it will be over some stupid shit. Maybe the DriveThru reporting system will become the cause de jour.
Also, its an election year in the USA so the internets will be double dumb.
Quote from: Spinachcat;870940What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
It will continue to diminish because Hasbro won't fund advertising and marketing
This continues to baffle me year after year. I work for a charter school and the company runs both television and radio ads. I don't know who is in charge of these things at Hasbro/WoTC, but it's a weird way to run a business to do no ads.
Quote from: Spinachcat;870940What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
It will continue to diminish because Hasbro won't fund advertising and marketing and the rest of the "big dogs" want to sell coffee table art textbooks instead of games.
Meanwhile, the boardgame hobby will continue to grow.
Interestingly, comparing 2013 and 2015 figures from ICv2 as compiled by ENWorld here (http://www.enworld.org/forum/content.php?1984-Top-5-RPGs-Compiled-Charts-2008-Present#.VoH11VSLS00), the RPG market actually grew in the last couple of years. (And bear in mind that ICv2, by the nature of their data collection processes, are blind to direct sales and PDF sales.) $15 million to $25 million is, proportionally, a similar amount of growth to what boardgames and non-collectable card and dice gamers managed.
Interestingly, it seems to be the miniatures section of the market which is stagnating.
Quote from: Shipyard Locked;870923I believe 5e will continue to consolidate market share and Pathfinder will begin to visibly falter. I just don't think the latter has the right ruleset for where the zeitgeist is going.
I think signs already exist of Pathfinder faltering - ENWorld's chart of hot RPGs (http://www.enworld.org/forum/hotgames.php), which tries to measure the extent to which different games get discussed, has lately shown it dropping from the number two spot it used to have behind 5E - right now, as far as ENWorld's RSS monitoring can tell there's more discussion of Exalted, 4E, and 3.X than Pathfnder, and World of Darkness is nipping at Pathfinder's heels.
Paizo are in kind of an impossible place with it. Major change will inevitably drive away customers who came to it precisely because they didn't want a major change away from 3.X, unless they are able to somehow cook up some genius reforms to the system which manage to simultaneously be significant and useful enough to be worth people adopting whilst at the same time being sufficiently rooted in the 3.X design ethos that it doesn't feel like a major departure. That is an incredibly difficult balancing act to pull off.
On the other hand, if they keep chugging on as-is and make no changes to the system, they doom themselves to playing second fiddle to 5E, which has established such a massive lead over Pathfinder in terms of dominance of the discussion space (as the ENWorld chart shows) and has been a sufficiently broad commercial success that it has reestablished the normal state of affairs wherein the current D&D is the 800 pound gorilla in the RPG industry. And that will hurt Pathfinder in the long run - for as long as D&D is bigger, the odds are that 5E organised play will be more widespread and more frequent than Pathfinder organised play, so those who are invested in organised play will have an increasing incentive to migrate to 5E - and as more of them migrate, the centre of gravity will shift further towards 5E, and the incentive to migrate will keep growing.
I think in the long run Pathfinder will have to choose whether they would prefer to substantially reform their system at the risk of losing that section of their fanbase which is adamantly opposed to further drift from 3.X on the one hand for the sake of trying to reclaim a position in the lead of the industry, and watching their game increasingly lose its "new hotness" shine and having to adjust to the fact that they are no longer publishing the most popular D&D variant - and the reduced ambition and narrower scope that comes with no longer being the industry leader.
What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
Anything I release will roundly ignored. :D
Will the OSR still be king?
At this forum? Probably!
Will 5e keep doing well?
Until the next version comes out, most likely.
What will be the hot news?
OSR Porn movies.
Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
So long as you are alive, I am sure of it! :D
-clash
Quote from: RPGPundit;870921What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
Will the OSR still be king?
Will 5e keep doing well?
What will be the hot news?
Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
These all seem likely. 5e will release a couple big new adventure books, my prediction is that one will be well received, one will have mixed reviews. One will be Forgotten Realms, one another setting, possibly Ravenloft. They might just release a Monster Manual 2 or Fiend Folio.
Paizo seems likely to continue relative decline, with a crunch-saturated game and a saturated market. They can't/won't do 5e stuff, but they might put more effort into marketing material as 'd20 generic' to 5e players (most Pathfinder stuff is very easy to use in 5e). 2017 is their 10th anniversary - I expect then they'll do a Rise of the Runelords style AP hardback that will be well received and mark a renaissance, but 2016 may be fairly quiet for them.
The OSR is pretty mature now, I expect it will continue to do well, though Lamentations of the Flame Princess may be past its use by date, judging by how lonely James Raggi looked at Dragonmeet. :)
Venger Satanis will put out more weird stuff, that will get unaccountably positive reviews on rpgnet and that I'll probably buy. :)
Quote from: RPGPundit;870921What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
Some products will be released, some people will argue about stupid things online, and games will continue to be played.
QuoteWill the OSR still be king?
(http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/blinking_sword_in_the_stone.gif)
QuoteWill 5e keep doing well?
Is it doing well? Thats nice. I guess so.
QuoteWhat will be the hot news?
Something to do with the Kardashians I imagine.
QuoteWill the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
Sure, their audience will diminish more and more of course. Even RPGnet isnt putting up with their shit the way it used to.
Quote from: Warthur;870952Interestingly, comparing 2013 and 2015 figures from ICv2 as compiled by ENWorld here (http://www.enworld.org/forum/content.php?1984-Top-5-RPGs-Compiled-Charts-2008-Present#.VoH11VSLS00), the RPG market actually grew in the last couple of years.
Warthur, your penis is evil, but your numbers are nice. But I wonder if that represents new players or just current RPGers buying 5e because a new edition hit the shelves.
Well, the core 5E books came out in 2014, so the big bubble from early adopters would have been then. If 5E sales are still strong enough in 2015 to add $10 to the value of the industry that's notable in itself.
Of course, I suspect if you added together the funds raised by every 2015 RPG Kickstarter you would find that the $25 million figure is the tip of a very hard to quantify iceberg.
Pundit declares himself Dark God of D&D, launches purges to establish the Fifth Order.
No one else notices.
;)
NOBODY expects the Uruguayan Inquisition!
(shrugs) For the entire history of mankind, people have found things about which to be outraged, great and small. If it isn't one thing, it's another, and if they can't find something, they'll invent something.
I'll predict some serious kickstarter-related outrage (as in, more outrage than has already happened to date). An exceptionally big kickstarter goes spectacularly wrong.
Quote from: ptingler;870947This continues to baffle me year after year. I work for a charter school and the company runs both television and radio ads. I don't know who is in charge of these things at Hasbro/WoTC, but it's a weird way to run a business to do no ads.
This may be due to Solomon blockading any type of filming. That might be so broad as to include advertisements. Unlikely. But things have been a total mess over that. Thanks alot Loraine!
The more likely reason is that marketing for 4e was a total bust and was part of the reson more people moved to 3e Pathfinder. Do-Not-Demean-Your-Fanbase!
But in general Hasborg sucks at advertising and marketing if it isnt a priority. Their rep for bad marketing of their fringe IPs is long.
Quote from: P&P;871210I'll predict some serious kickstarter-related outrage (as in, more outrage than has already happened to date). An exceptionally big kickstarter goes spectacularly wrong.
Unless its a big company, and even then it may not, it will just be a blip on the radar.
Too many backers have really good experiences. The failures are spaced apart and often in lits of un-related areas that no one cares.
Worse is that all it takes is a little song and dance and many backers will just sigh, say "oh well its only 200$" and move on. Especially if the wait has been long. and in many cases we are talking years of wait.
What can you do when publisher BURNS product and threatens to burn more if anyone else complains about the delay. This happened.
What can you do when the onus of seeking restitution is totally on you and if enough time has passed then filing for a refund from banks or amazon, etc may become hard if not impossible?
KS and the like work. But you really have to weigh each one now for risk.
Quote from: RPGPundit;870921What do you think will happen in the hobby next year?
Will the OSR still be king?
Will 5e keep doing well?
What will be the hot news?
Will the Outrage Brigade keep being able to cause trouble, and if so over what?
1: stuff.
2: What OSR? :D
3: WOTCs ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. They still have a few years to totally botch things before 6e.
4: WOTC doing a 5e version of something fans have been wanting. Ravenloft maybe. Personally I'd prefer Spelljammer.
5: Of course. Something insanely trivial like Aleenas hair being too curly.
My first and foremost hope is that the various Kickstarters that I have been waiting for years for actually ends up being delivered next year. Not naming names, but the major frustration from last year is just how few RPG companies that I've backed actually deliver on their own estimated time plans. I will mention Atlas Games, however, who delivered the excellent Feng Shui 2 precisely on time.
My second hope is that we see a final end game to the RuneQuest/BRP schisms with less attempts at providing more 'core rules' books from different, competing companies. There has been way too many overhauls and confusion in this line over the last 10 years, but in Glorantha's 50th Year we can see a full colour RuneQuest game realised to match the Guide to Glorantha set and, following on, a lot of other standalone games with related self contained systems that are tailored to the setting provided. I'm hopeful, in particular, for a Mythic Greece game written by Pete Nash.
My third hope is that we continue to see an expansion on actual playing numbers in D&D and other games, through mechanisms like the Adventurer's League. I'd also like to see more settings for 5E like Primeval Thule along with scripted campaigns and adventures, from both Wizards and third parties (Dark Albion!). Official PDF releases on drivethrurg of the core three books would be nice too.
The whole White Wolf/Onyx Path thing looks a little clearer, and positive, with recent statements. Basically, the old/new WoD division is no more with the 'Chronicles of Darkness' (previously nWoD) now being a separate brand and line. The 'Classic WoD' lines will continue in their 20th Anniversary forms, including Wraith and Changeling, but the mooted 4E Vampire game has now been assimilated into the new White Wolf's plans for the WoD line. That is, we will likely see a new line of games designed to be in tune with online applications of the various games and a reemphasis on retail sales. Not likely to be happening for a while though I think - just sit back and enjoy the ongoing Onyx Path publications in the meantime.
Mongoose's Traveller 2nd Edition ought to be good, I think, too. It's basically the same old game with a bit of tweaking here or there - and there are some great settings land Campaigns lined up - hopefully including, but not limited to, Pirates of Drinax, Prime Directive, Mindjammer, the Clement Sector, and 2300AD. With an improved layout and appearance, and a mooted intro Box Set in the making, I would hope it would finally be recognised as THE sci-fi equivalent of D&D (as it always has been in my mind).
There are some other games likely to be kickstarted in the next year - although my own patience for backing unreliable 'creative projects' is a bit stretched now, I have to say. I just hope those companies that run them take a bit more time planning them properly in the future.
And for me, arriving back in NZ just in time for the New Year (after a novel Christmas spent in the Middle East), I hope that my two planned games (Mage: The Ascension and the new Traveller edition) are well received, along with my Adventurer's League duties, while I get a bit more chance to play in other people's campaigns. Oh, and Kublacon is coming up! :)
Happy New Year!
Quote from: S'mon;870998(most Pathfinder stuff is very easy to use in 5e).
What makes you say that? All the PF stuff is filled with tons of different rules and bonuses and mechanics that makes it seem hard to convert over.
Quote from: mAcular Chaotic;871388What makes you say that? All the PF stuff is filled with tons of different rules and bonuses and mechanics that makes it seem hard to convert over.
I take a pencil and strike through that stuff. 3e/PF uses similar stats to 5e, AC can be directly converted just by taking out the special 3e/PF bonuses that don't apply. Damage & hp can port over directly, or increase hp when you lower AC.
I've been running "Shards of Sin" for PF, converted to 5e. I found especially the PC-class PF enemies very easy to convert, and monsters convert easily too, if I'm not using the 5e equivalent. Special monster abilities can be used as-is, just halve the DC over 10 for saves.
Obviously there is some work, but 3e/PF is vastly closer to 5e than either is to 4e.
Prediction: The crotchety brigade's lawn gets even bigger.
Quote from: Shipyard Locked;870923I believe 5e will continue to consolidate market share and Pathfinder will begin to visibly falter. I just don't think the latter has the right ruleset for where the zeitgeist is going.
This seems extremely likely to me too.
Quote from: Warthur;870952Interestingly, comparing 2013 and 2015 figures from ICv2 as compiled by ENWorld here (http://www.enworld.org/forum/content.php?1984-Top-5-RPGs-Compiled-Charts-2008-Present#.VoH11VSLS00), the RPG market actually grew in the last couple of years. (And bear in mind that ICv2, by the nature of their data collection processes, are blind to direct sales and PDF sales.) $15 million to $25 million is, proportionally, a similar amount of growth to what boardgames and non-collectable card and dice gamers managed.
Interestingly, it seems to be the miniatures section of the market which is stagnating.
Very interesting news. I wonder if it has to do with the fact that 5e is the least minis-depending rule-set WoTC has ever put out as far as D&D is concerned?
Hopefully in 2016 Zack S will remake the Realm of Chaos books, as he said he would.
Quote from: RPGPundit;871987This seems extremely likely to me too.
From what I'm seeing, 5e is clearly dominating in the marketplace, while Pathfinder retains a strong following among those who like that sort of thing. But lots of people were playing Pathfinder while not really liking it, because there was not a good alternative available (except 3e of course). 5e has taken that market.
I think there will continue to be a big niche for PF, a medium niche for OSR, and a small niche for 4e, a very different game which can still do stuff other D&Ds can't. But 5e's playability and lack of bloat assures it a dominant position.
Quote from: RPGPundit;871988Very interesting news. I wonder if it has to do with the fact that 5e is the least minis-depending rule-set WoTC has ever put out as far as D&D is concerned?
I think minis purchased for the purpose of playing D&D is a tiny drop in the minis market when you compare them to minis bought for wargaming purposes (particularly considering how many play without minis altogether - even people I knew who did 4E used tokens rather than minis).
I suspect the stagnation of the miniatures market has more to do with the creative slump Games Workshop is in.
While Wargaming minis are in a slump or at least levelled out. Board gaming and all purpose minis are on a big upswing. No idea why but some publishers and would be publishers have it in their heads that a minis heavy game sells better. Some are probably misreading Reapers successes without looking at the larger market.
WizKids seems to be plugging away. But not as big as they were in years past. Havent heard much of that D&D tactical game since it came out.
My hunch is that Games Workshop sales are going down precipitously, whilst other minis producers are filling the gap sufficiently to stop the minis sale total from dropping. The new Warhammer: Age of Sigmar sank like a stone around here and it feels like their cynical "snag customers when they are 11, pump them for all they are worth, then don't bother retaining them because there's always more 11 year olds" strategy is beginning to go to pieces.
I think that's been occurring for some years now, but on the surface GW has been able to mask it by increasing profitability. I think they are simply reaching the limits of that.
I don't feel bad for Games Workshop. Their shitty business practices are catching up to them and they deserve the loss of income.
Quote from: Warthur;872069My hunch is that Games Workshop sales are going down precipitously, whilst other minis producers are filling the gap sufficiently to stop the minis sale total from dropping. The new Warhammer: Age of Sigmar sank like a stone around here and it feels like their cynical "snag customers when they are 11, pump them for all they are worth, then don't bother retaining them because there's always more 11 year olds" strategy is beginning to go to pieces.
Actually GW posted a slight rise in profits since the release of AoS, which has done pretty good sales overall apparently. No idea where you guys are getting your info from.
I have no idea where those people are though, because online I only ever see complaints about it. I don't know of any AoS-themed forums, which may be why it seems so once-sided to me as I'm getting the reactions from the tournament-players and mathhammerers at BoLS, Dakka, Faeit, etc.
The new price hike has effectively priced me out of the customer base though. No way am I paying $90 for 3 cavalry models.
Quote from: Frey;871989Hopefully in 2016 Zack S will remake the Realm of Chaos books, as he said he would.
Thats kind of absurd since he has no working relationship with GW and has never done any wargame content.
Quote from: TristramEvans;872100Actually GW posted a slight rise in profits since the release of AoS, which has done pretty good sales overall apparently. No idea where you guys are getting your info from.
Again, if you read past the profitability numbers, it would appear they have lost market share in spite of maintaining or increasing profitability.
Quote from: TristramEvans;872100The new price hike has effectively priced me out of the customer base though. No way am I paying $90 for 3 cavalry models.
Which is exactly how they've accomplished what I mentioned above.
Quote from: Bobloblah;872109Again, if you read past the profitability numbers, it would appear they have lost market share in spite of maintaining or increasing profitability.
Do we actually have access to those numbers? GW is the only miniatures company I know of that posts a periodic sales report.
Quote from: TristramEvans;872101Thats kind of absurd since he has no working relationship with GW and has never done any wargame content.
Those books were of use for WFRP players as well... and I'm pretty sure Zak S. could milk the vital juices right out of them without stroking the dangling threat-sack of IP infringement.
I think that as long as Games Workshop has high street retail presence, there will always be a new batch of 11 year olds walking past and going 'Awww, Kewwwl!!'
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872127I think that as long as Games Workshop has high street retail presence, there will always be a new batch of 11 year olds walking past and going 'Awww, Kewwwl!!'
Yeah, but these days their nerd dads are like me:
"Son, DON'T GO IN THERE!! Here, have some nice Mantic/Warlord figures..." :D
We're like respectable New Orleans matrons seeing their offspring heading for the House of the Rising Sun.
Seriously, I was pretty damn annoyed with my own dad when he went out with my 8 yr old son one day in Edinburgh, and they returned with some shitty Games Workshop WH40K model that had cost him £20 - his grandson had dragged him into GW Edinburgh and persuaded him to buy it under the impression it was a pre-assembled toy, not a bunch of sprues. I've been boycotting GW since White Dwarf stopped being an RPG mag and I don't intend to stop now!
Quote from: Simlasa;872115Those books were of use for WFRP players as well... and I'm pretty sure Zak S. could milk the vital juices right out of them without stroking the dangling threat-sack of IP infringement.
Hm, I think you have a higher opinion of the fellow and his work than myself.
Never quite got the bug for W40K stuff, thankfully. I do recognise their success though.
But yeah, Warlord games are better....;)
After I got done ranting I realize it has nothing to do with the topic so I erase it. If you want to hear it ask for it in another thread. For everyone else I am sorry.
On the prediction front, I feel there is actually quite a lot of change in the air.
The D&D 5E thing, I think will start to gather a bit of momentum as we start seeing a few more settings and supplements for it. But my major thoughts are when are we going to see movies or a TV show for it. As an IP, this is really what WotC want the D&D brand for surely? What are the developments on this front? Also, how will 5E ultimately impact on Pathfinder and other D20/OGL or OSR movements too?
White Wolf, now under new ownership have already stated that this is a major aim of theirs now too, and is why the whole "One World of Darkness" branding is important to them. They want a Netflix or HBO show that could reach out as much as Star Wars or Game of Thrones, apparently. That may take some time though.
Chaosium must now rank as one of the longest lasting game companies ever - but they will have some work to assuage concerns that have grown about products (or the lack of them in CoC7e's case) to their existing fanbase. But, nevertheless, the direction they take to support RuneQuest in their own image is interesting.
Savage Worlds, FATE and Apocalypse Worlds may get some support but I wonder if, in at least a couple of cases whether bubbles may end up being burst at any point.
Quote from: Snowman0147;872172After I got done ranting I realize it has nothing to do with the topic so I erase it. If you want to hear it ask for it in another thread. For everyone else I am sorry.
what was the rant about?
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872165Never quite got the bug for W40K stuff, thankfully. I do recognise their success though.
But yeah, Warlord games are better....;)
What science fiction and fantasy games does Warlord produce?
Quote from: TristramEvans;872176What science fiction and fantasy games does Warlord produce?
Judge Dredd (with Mongoose), Gates of Antares, Terminator Genysis and Doctor Who upcoming. They also do historical miniatures from a multitude of eras.
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872178Judge Dredd (with Mongoose), Gates of Antares, Terminator Genysis and Doctor Who upcoming. They also do historical miniatures from a multitude of eras.
Yes, I quite like their historical games. Of course they're written by the fellow who wrote the best edition of Warhammer, so thats to be expected.
Ive heard of the Judge Dredd game, but its not an IP I've ever had more than a passing interest in (even if the last film was absolutely exceptional). Not familiar with Gates of Antares, and didnt know about the Terminator and new Dr. Who minis game. Maybe I'll finally be able to do a Cybermen-themed Necrons force.
Looks like Im still looking for a new mass battle fantasy game that hits that sweet spot, though.
Quote from: Bobloblah;872085I think that's been occurring for some years now, but on the surface GW has been able to mask it by increasing profitability. I think they are simply reaching the limits of that.
GW's sales from I believe 2008 to 2012 sank incredibly. Doesnt help that they treat their foreign retailers like absolute dirt. Then theres that whole online retailer blow-up and on and on. They dig their grave a little deeper every passing year now.
Quote from: TristramEvans;872175what was the rant about?
Sent a fpm.
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872173But my major thoughts are when are we going to see movies or a TV show for it. As an IP, this is really what WotC want the D&D brand for surely? What are the developments on this front?
There arent any D&D movies or TV shows because Loraine Williams handed ooff ALL the rights to Solomon and he has been blockading D&D movies every since that arent his own or licensed through SweatPea. Apparently he recently sold some of the rights to I think Paramont who can now do a D&D movie without WOTCs permission. That couldnt possibly fail right?
How much of a bind Solomon has WOTC in is anyones guess. But the legal battles gone back and fourth since 2000 at least. Seems he can blockade TV shows and even animated series?
So untill that is resolved theres no chance of a non-Solomon D&D movie coming out. Weis & Hickman can do Dragonlance as apparently they own the rights seperately. Though their animated movie was... sub par to say the least.
Oh well, s'pose there is always this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhFMIRuHAL4
Saw the trailer at the theater Sunday.
Quote from: Omega;872185GW's sales from I believe 2008 to 2012 sank incredibly. Doesnt help that they treat their foreign retailers like absolute dirt. Then theres that whole online retailer blow-up and on and on. They dig their grave a little deeper every passing year now.
They've also shifted the majority of their outlets to a "one-man store" model more recently, which obviously cuts a heap of costs but has the consequence that rather than having a team of people onhand to help with customer enquiries, interested customers have to deal with one overworked dude. (I can't imagine it helps the situation with shoplifting any - Games Workshop seemed to lose lots of stuff to kids with sticky fingers even when they had a whole team running the stores.)
I predict more long and strangely heated arguments over which way of playing Let's Pretend is more mature and produces more objective Fun Units per hour.
I predicts reams of new jargon invented that will change many 30 times in the first 24 hours of its existence then even more heated arguments over what it really means.
I have seen the future. It is covered in Outrage. No one was spared. Not even the children. O.O
TBP will continue its slide into an almost perfect satire of a corrupt police state/dystopian commune. Yet will retain its position of noteworthiness due to sheer numbers and inertia.
Politics will continue to seep into gaming and gaming discussion adding fuel and kindling to the aforementioned fires and many others.
I will continue to bounce between forums, too Right for some, Too Left for others. I may purchase a trenchcoat and katana to complete the wandering loner image.
5e will pick up steam and Pathfinder will falter, but still maintain some presence in the market. This is kind of obvious for me.
White Wolf, now under new ownership, wants to maintain the 20th Anniversary material and expand the World of Darkness brand. As a WoD fan (well, most of WoD, I don't like Revised Edition due to the awful metaplot), I am happy so long as they keep it in the style of V20 and W20 and maintain a metaplot-agnostic approach (M20, while not entirely metaplot-agnostic, does negate the worst aspects of the metaplot's impact, which is good). Hopefully, Onyx Path's attempts at the unnecessary and downright awful ideas for V4 will be ultimately mothballed and V20 will see wider release, along with Wraith and Changeling's 20th Anniversary Editions. Also, I hope they get a TV show for HBO or Netflix like they have been wanting and I hope it is good.
Addendum to the White Wolf thing, with the new ownership, maybe we can sort out the issues with the Guardians of the Order properties and maybe see a small-scale release of BESM again (this is more wishful thinking sadly)
Onyx Path will continue to chug along so long as they can do work on the Classic World of Darkness 20th Anniversary Materials. Vampire 4E has been put on hold from the looks of it (Thank God, we don't need a continuation of the Revised Edition metaplot. Pretentious goths may have liked it, but everyone else hated it), and I hope Chronicles of Darkness does well for them.
However, once the 20th Anniversary stuff is either finished or completely in White Wolf's hands, things could look grim for Onyx Path. They are already a small-scale overworked outfit notorious for delayed projects, so Chronicles of Darkness could be a sink or swim moment for them. On one hand, Chronicles of Darkness no longer being titled World of Darkness could help reinvent their brand and not have to live in the shadow of the Classic World of Darkness. On the other hand, it could fail again (Which is a shame because I like nWoD) and essentially doom Onyx Path.
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872165Never quite got the bug for W40K stuff, thankfully. I do recognise their success though.
But yeah, Warlord games are better....;)
Do you have
Bolt Action? Been thinking about getting it. I like Alessio Cavatore's
Terminator: Genisys game I bought at Dragonmeet, and Rick Priestly is a legend of course.
Quote from: TrippyHippy;872178Judge Dredd (with Mongoose), Gates of Antares, Terminator Genysis and Doctor Who upcoming. They also do historical miniatures from a multitude of eras.
Terminator: Genisys belongs to River Horse. I guess Warlord produce & distribute it. Cool game, I'm about to try to get my son to play me again now. :D
Quote from: Doc Sammy;872233As a WoD fan (well, most of WoD, I don't like Revised Edition due to the awful metaplot), I am happy so long as they keep it in the style of V20 and W20 and maintain a metaplot-agnostic approach (M20, while not entirely metaplot-agnostic, does negate the worst aspects of the metaplot's impact, which is good).
The 20th games were metaplot free? I didn't realize that. How free, like nWoD free* or just a toned down version of the old stuff?
A version of WTA with a lot of the specific real world angst removed could be quite appealing.
Then again, a werewolf game without any of the Captain Planet + hippy-dippy shamanism stuff would be an even more appealing breath of fresh air.
* In the sense that nWoD could be played sandbox style in a very small homebrew setting without any reference to a wider world or epic conflicts.
Quote from: Shipyard Locked;872251The 20th games were metaplot free? I didn't realize that. How free, like nWoD free* or just a toned down version of the old stuff?
A version of WTA with a lot of the specific real world angst removed could be quite appealing.
Then again, a werewolf game without any of the Captain Planet + hippy-dippy shamanism stuff would be an even more appealing breath of fresh air.
* In the sense that nWoD could be played sandbox style in a very small homebrew setting without any reference to a wider world or epic conflicts.
Not so much metaplot free like nWoD, but metaplot-neutral. The metaplot was toned down and made optional.
A black swan event will rock the RPG scene to its carb-filled core. You heard it here first!
Quote from: The_Shadow;872336A black swan event will rock the RPG scene to its carb-filled core. You heard it here first!
Such as?
Three Black Swan Events that could happen this year:
1. WotC folds as Hasbro grows tired of the meager profits. The entire division is swept under the carpet unexpectedly
2. Onebookshelf is revealed to be a criminal front for Russian bootleg sales and disappears overnight
3. The D&D movie arrives late in the year and does as well as a Marvel or Star Wars film, unexpectedly propelling brand interest into the stratosphere
4. A massive and wildly popular conservative movement manifests in 2016 sailing on the coat-tails of Donald Trump, leading to a resurgence in conservative christian censorship against video games and RPGs. D&D is inexplicably singled out again, propelling it back in to the limelight as the post-millennial generation's favorite focus of rebellion.
5. This one could actually be "real" if it were a thing: one of the first really successful games for Oculus Rift is a D&D title, leading to a new angle of growth for D&D in actual VR tech when the Oculus Rift comes out later this year.
6. Blizzard announces it's next major MMO design will be a licensed D&D product.
7. The black plague wipes out much of the western hemisphere, impacting gaming a bit.
Quote from: camazotz;8730217. The black plague wipes out much of the western hemisphere, impacting gaming a bit.
lol, there are several antibiotic treatments for the Bubonic plague these days.
I'm way beyond worrying if WotC/Hasbro can't manage the D&D brand. For one thing, if the D&D game were to cease production right now, I think the 5th Edition is the best iteration of the game anyway and it may end up with official PDF copies at last.
If they did dump it, you can bet another company would snap it up in the same manner that FFG did when GW dumped 40KRP.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873024lol, there are several antibiotic treatments for the Bubonic plague these days.
At 11% mortalty, an epidemic would still be absolutely devastating. Witness the impact of (much less lethal) flu epidemics.
Not to mention that the people and places most likely to be hit the hardest by a plague outbreak would be the least likely to get prompt treatment.
Quote from: The Butcher;873039At 11% mortalty, an epidemic would still be absolutely devastating. Witness the impact of (much less lethal) flu epidemics.
Not to mention that the people and places most likely to be hit the hardest by a plague outbreak would be the least likely to get prompt treatment.
I'm just not sure how you're picturing an epidemic happening in the Western World of a disease that we can readily identify, treat, and provide vaccinations against.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873053I'm just not sure how you're picturing an epidemic happening in the Western World of a disease that we can readily identify, treat, and provide vaccinations against.
:rolleyes:
1. We are talking about "black swan" events, right?
2. Wherever there's rats, there's the possibility — however distant — of plague outbreaks.
3. The 11% lethality figure is with antibiotic treatment. Without it, assume the well-recorded historical death rate of 66%.
4. The common sewer rat (
Rattus rattus) the reservoir for
Yersinia pestis with a species of flea (
Xenopsylla cheops) acting as the vector. There's no person-to-person transmission. Therefore, treating or even isolating the sick will not break the transmission chain.
5. There's no vaccine for the plague.
Quote from: The Butcher;873106:rolleyes:
1. We are talking about "black swan" events, right?
I've never seen the film, I'm guessing based on context that's a "highly unlikely disaster"?
Quote2. Wherever there's rats, there's the possibility — however distant — of plague outbreaks.
Well, or Gerbils, depending on who you talk to. The conditions regarding human contact with rat populations today don't exactly mirror those of the middle ages, however.
Quote3. The 11% lethality figure is with antibiotic treatment. Without it, assume the well-recorded historical death rate of 66%.
It's notable however that that mortality rate comes from small villages and agricultural areas in Africa and other third world countries.
Quote4. The common sewer rat (Rattus rattus) the reservoir for Yersinia pestis with a species of flea (Xenopsylla cheops) acting as the vector. There's no person-to-person transmission. Therefore, treating or even isolating the sick will not break the transmission chain.
Human to human transmission is quite possible from either direct contact with infected tissue or fluids, or inhaling repository droplets. But that's neither here nor there insofar as isolating a plague outbreak I would think.
Quote5. There's no vaccine for the plague.
The bubonic plague, or Black Plague, mentioned has been successfully vaccinated against with a whole cell plague vaccine, but this was shown in tests to be ineffective against the
pneumonic plague, whereas a sub-unit vaccine based on the F1- and V-antigens has been highly effective against both the bubonic and pneumonic plague.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107I've never seen the film, I'm guessing based on context that's a "highly unlikely disaster"?
Yes. It's an idiom dating back to Juvenal. Nothing to do with the film in this context.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107Well, or Gerbils, depending on who you talk to. The conditions regarding human contact with rat populations today don't exactly mirror those of the middle ages, however.
Maybe not in urban population centers in the developed world.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107It's notable however that that mortality rate comes from small villages and agricultural areas in Africa and other third world countries.
That's where most recent cases have been reported, so no surprise. We might speculate whether intensive care will drive this figure down but that's a guess.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107Human to human transmission is quite possible from either direct contact with infected tissue or fluids, or inhaling repository droplets. But that's neither here nor there insofar as isolating a plague outbreak I would think.
Absolutely. Pneumonic plague cases are what, 10%? And what's the attack rate of droplet transmission? (honest question, I don't have my trusty old ID textbook handy) Isolation and antibiotic prophylaxis to contactees will see use but the bulk of cases historically comes from ye olde rat fleas.
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107The bubonic plague, or Black Plague, mentioned has been successfully vaccinated against with a whole cell plague vaccine, but this was shown in tests to be ineffective against the pneumonic plague, whereas a sub-unit vaccine based on the F1- and V-antigens has been highly effective against both the bubonic and pneumonic plague.
A Cochrane review has found no prospective, controlled evidence for the efficacy of vaccination in preventing any form of plague. So, to amend my previous statement, there's no vaccine
that's been proven effective against the plague.
Predictions:
5E continues to pull away from Pathfinder in terms of players.
We see an acceleration of the trend towards greater ease of amateur publishing, while professional publishing declines.
The meagre amount of D&D materials published by WotC dispels any lingering delusions that WotC still consider the tabletop game a line worth devoting significant resources to.
Recognizing pent-up demand for professional 5E products, Paizo dips its toe into dual-purpose materials that support both PF and 5E.
Quote from: Haffrung;873154The meagre amount of D&D materials published by WotC dispels any lingering delusions that WotC still consider the tabletop game a line worth devoting significant resources to.
Recognizing pent-up demand for professional 5E products, Paizo dips its toe into dual-purpose materials that support both PF and 5E.
1: Its more that WOTC regognized the serious damage the glut of published material did and cut back. Thats even mentioned in one of the designer interviews as a reason why they arent banging out new material left and right. Conversely they just opened up the DMs Guild for submissions.
2: Pazio has been working with FFG to do a Pathfinder LCG. Then there was the proposed minis game. Seems they are trying to branch out into other venues.
Isn't 'Black swan' taken from Hume as an example of the weakness of Empiricism?
That is, it was assumed that all swans were White Swans to the degree that the white colour actually became part of how they were defined. That is, until colonists went to Australia and discovered Black Swans which meant our empirical evidence had changed and we had to review our understanding of the very essence of what a swan was.
Isn't a 'Black Swan event' a reference to paradigm shifting?
Quote from: Omega;8732371: Its more that WOTC regognized the serious damage the glut of published material did and cut back. Thats even mentioned in one of the designer interviews as a reason why they arent banging out new material left and right.
I understand that a glut of crunch and options for players can lead to complexity creep and a mini-maxing metagame that acts as a barrier of entry to new players. However, I don't see how books aimed at DMs are a problem for the game. Setting books. Collections of monsters, NPCs, or lairs. Supplements for wilderness or naval campaigns. Cities. Books on dragons, undead, or demons. Standalone adventures. None of those increase the complexity of the game, upset balance, or make it harder for new players to get into the game.
Quote from: camazotz;873021Three Black Swan Events that could happen this year:
1. WotC folds as Hasbro grows tired of the meager profits. The entire division is swept under the carpet unexpectedly
It's possible. However, WoTC is doing better than ever now, so if they do close it up that means it never really had a chance.
Quote2. Onebookshelf is revealed to be a criminal front for Russian bootleg sales and disappears overnight
Do you know something we don't?
Quote3. The D&D movie arrives late in the year and does as well as a Marvel or Star Wars film, unexpectedly propelling brand interest into the stratosphere
Extremely unlikely.
Quote4. A massive and wildly popular conservative movement manifests in 2016 sailing on the coat-tails of Donald Trump, leading to a resurgence in conservative christian censorship against video games and RPGs. D&D is inexplicably singled out again, propelling it back in to the limelight as the post-millennial generation's favorite focus of rebellion.
Virtually impossible:
a) Trump does not have much support from the religious right; and the religious right have very little support anymore in the GOP as a whole.
b) The censorious tendencies in our modern age come from the LEFT, not the right.
c) as per point b, above, many of the people advocating for Trump are people radically opposed to SJW censorship. The Trump movement is all about a rejection of the idea of liberal elites telling us what to do.
It is not technically impossible, but it might as well be. It would be FAR more possible that a Clinton or Sanders presidency would lead to the appointment and promotion of figures in the intersectional feminist movement (the type of people who REALLY believe in and support censorship today) that would advocate for the censorship of evil rape culture misogynistic patriarchal sexist racist homophobic D&D.
Quote5. This one could actually be "real" if it were a thing: one of the first really successful games for Oculus Rift is a D&D title, leading to a new angle of growth for D&D in actual VR tech when the Oculus Rift comes out later this year.
6. Blizzard announces it's next major MMO design will be a licensed D&D product.
Maybe, but neither of these would actually be likely to change the OUR hobby itself at all. Popular D&D video games have never meant anything in terms of people playing tabletop D&D.
Quote from: RPGPundit;873839It's possible. However, WoTC is doing better than ever now, so if they do close it up that means it never really had a chance.
Virtually impossible:
a) Trump does not have much support from the religious right; and the religious right have very little support anymore in the GOP as a whole.
b) The censorious tendencies in our modern age come from the LEFT, not the right.
c) as per point b, above, many of the people advocating for Trump are people radically opposed to SJW censorship. The Trump movement is all about a rejection of the idea of liberal elites telling us what to do.
It is not technically impossible, but it might as well be. It would be FAR more possible that a Clinton or Sanders presidency would lead to the appointment and promotion of figures in the intersectional feminist movement (the type of people who REALLY believe in and support censorship today) that would advocate for the censorship of evil rape culture misogynistic patriarchal sexist racist homophobic D&D.
Yep.
Also many of the right wing figures in the US are D&D players , Moderates like Jonas Goldburg (he wrote a national review article a decade ago sheepishly admiring to playing D&D) and farther right figures Like Vox Day are all avid or ex gamers.
The origin was actually a rather right wing kind of thing in many ways but that is off topic.
Anyway, my guess is that with the SRD release, 5e will grow quite a bit and eat PF market share and its possible Paizo will deep their feet in 5e waters at some point if PF sales slump
Everybody here talks like they KNOW, deep down in their hearts, what Hasbro is going to do -- but your main assumption is completely and utterly wrong.
WoTC is not D&D to Hasbro.
WoTC is Magic: the Gathering.
And Magic is a freakin' license to print money. And it has been going on for 23 years!
Why would they get rid of D&D? They finally got it right where they want it. Small staff printing a couple pretty Hardbacks a year, an OGL that throws money back at them for very little overhead, it is perfect.
Everybody is happy.
And the Magic Gravy Train just keeps on chuggin' along...
And on a completely non-financial note, hey Clash, where is my StarCluster 4?
I need my fix -- I'm jonse'in man!
Quote from: TristramEvans;873107I've never seen the film, I'm guessing based on context that's a "highly unlikely disaster"?
The term had been around for a long time but has meant different things at different times. Originally, it meant something impossible since it was assumed that there was no such a thing as a black swan. That meaning changed a bit when black swans were discovered. The term Black Swan event was coined by Nassim Taleb (http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/) in his book Fooled by Randomness. His definition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory) is what I think of when someone refers to a capitalized Black Swan event.
Quote from: Doc Sammy;872283Not so much metaplot free like nWoD, but metaplot-neutral. The metaplot was toned down and made optional.
The x20 books are probably my favorite versions of oWoD stuff. V20 is an amazingly beautiful book to have on the shelf and the toning down of the metaplot makes it even more useful to a wider array of game types. While I'm not a huge OP fan, I ran a ton of 2nd edition back in the day and a friend got me a copy of V20 for my birthday a few years back and it's a keeper.
I'm not sure than the new White Wolf under Paradox is going to get to RPG publishing in 2016. I predict we'll see the beginning of some other products (maybe an art book or something) but no RPG products other than those from OP and By Night Studios.
Quote from: LouGoncey;873851Everybody here talks like they KNOW, deep down in their hearts, what Hasbro is going to do -- but your main assumption is completely and utterly wrong.
WoTC is not D&D to Hasbro.
WoTC is Magic: the Gathering.
And Magic is a freakin' license to print money. And it has been going on for 23 years!
Why would they get rid of D&D? They finally got it right where they want it. Small staff printing a couple pretty Hardbacks a year, an OGL that throws money back at them for very little overhead, it is perfect.
Everybody is happy.
And the Magic Gravy Train just keeps on chuggin' along...
I'd agree with this entirely, in fact.
Quote from: RPGPundit;874250I'd agree with this entirely, in fact.
According to people I know (one of which works at a local game store) it IS a fact. Until Magic tanks, WotC can do whatever it wants with it's other projects (As long of course as it doesn't cut into Magic money.)
I've always argued that D&D is more valuable to Wizards (and Hasbro) as an IP rather than actual product these days - so long as the product itself is well received.
The question is whether they'll be smart about using it; in the same way Marvel uses its comics (which as comics are hardly viable, but which generate them incredible value as IP).