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Pen & Paper Roleplaying Central => Pen and Paper Roleplaying Games (RPGs) Discussion => Topic started by: KrakaJak on July 04, 2011, 04:08:32 AM

Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 04, 2011, 04:08:32 AM
From the Paizo message boards posted by Lisa Steven, CEO of Paizo(I would provide a direct link, but my iPad won't let me):

QuoteAfraid not.

Scott is totally right here. Pathfinder has surpassed D&D in most of the markets that I check.
Thanks for ninja'ing me Scott!

-Lisa

So, it would appear Pathfinder has SURPASSED D&D 4e in marketshare. Earlier in the thread where this was pulled, they said they've had a consistently growing number of core book sales since Pathfinder's released. That is mind boggling.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: jeff37923 on July 04, 2011, 04:28:35 AM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466524That is mind boggling.

Not from where I am sitting.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Sacrificial Lamb on July 04, 2011, 05:27:36 AM
Quote from: jeff37923;466526Not from where I am sitting.

Not from where I'm sitting either. The 3.x audience is significantly larger than the 4.x audience, even today. When we explore the implications of that fact, it boggles the mind, and forces us to acknowledge that WoTC royally fucked up when marketing their new game...
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Ian Warner on July 04, 2011, 06:29:10 AM
Grim summed it up best on Twitter.

"They went after a new target ignoring their fanatical niche."
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: The Traveller on July 04, 2011, 06:43:44 AM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466524So, it would appear Pathfinder has SURPASSED D&D 4e in marketshare. Earlier in the thread where this was pulled, they said they've had a consistently growing number of core book sales since Pathfinder's released. That is mind boggling.
Did anyone supply any actual evidence of this?
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 04, 2011, 06:53:08 AM
4e is a huge departure from all prior editions, so it's not a huge surprise to me. I think it killed one too many sacred cows.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Kyle Aaron on July 04, 2011, 07:11:17 AM
Quote from: The Traveller;466532Did anyone supply any actual evidence of this?
Always nice, never present in discussion of rpg success or failure. Premature speculation is the usual method, the young are prone to it.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 04, 2011, 07:22:20 AM
QuotePathfinder has surpassed D&D in most of the markets that I check.
This is credible if the markets they are looking at are hobby shops and bookstores. I do wonder, though, if they figure in the role of DDI or not. That might change the picture.

On the other hand, nice to see them prosper.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 07:36:27 AM
Quote from: The Traveller;466532Did anyone supply any actual evidence of this?

The ceo of paizo made the statement based on conversations with distributors who told her pathfinder was outselling 4e. I find that pretty convincing...though its possible she misunderstood what she was told. Distributors (and there are only a few biggies for rpgs) should have reliable data on their product sales. I think this combined with the firing of bill slavicsek suggests 4e isnt performing as well as 3e did.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 07:39:01 AM
Quote from: Melan;466538This is credible if the markets they are looking at are hobby shops and bookstores. I do wonder, though, if they figure in the role of DDI or not. That might change the picture.

On the other hand, nice to see them prosper.

This came up on en world a few days ago and ddi is the big question mark. It seems her statement is limited to print sales. Still D&D falling behind on print sales is huge.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Omnifray on July 04, 2011, 07:54:17 AM
The idea that anything has overtaken D&D - even another iteration of D&D - is quite a shocker. Even if only in hard copy.

What is it exactly that most gamers seem not to like about 4e? Is it the way fighters have kewl powerz which add perhaps by some standards excessive layers of complexity to the game? Is it the way believability, suspension of disbelief and in some senses flexibility of play have been left behind to pursue a more focused experience with greater game-balance and tactical challenge?

Extra layers of complexity and a willingness to sacrifice some element of believability and suspension of disbelief were already present to some degree in 3rd ed, hence in Pathfinder. But 3rd ed / Pathfinder maintained flexibility of play, and didn't go to the extremes of complexity and trampling on suspension of disbelief which we seem to see in 4e. Did 3rd ed strike the right balance for most gamers? Or is even 3rd ed out of step with what gamers really enjoy?

Cranewings for instance commenting on my thread on musings on immersive roleplay in the Pundit's forum seems to indicate Pathfinder isn't his group's preferred system and seems to attribute this to it lacking believability and having excessive complexity, though both only specifically in relation to the way magic works.

Maybe most gamers are yearning for a simpler, more flexible, more believable experience, but still with hard and fast rules. Yet network externalities dictate that only a narrow selection of systems have any kind of market reach:- D&D and its offshoots; WHFRP and its offshoots; WOD; a few other major systems maybe. So gamers are stuck in some kind of morass?
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Ian Warner on July 04, 2011, 08:16:43 AM
Quote from: danbuter;4665334e is a huge departure from all prior editions, so it's not a huge surprise to me. I think it killed one too many sacred cows.

And it didn't appeal to the people who didn't like the sacraed cows as it didn't kill the most annoying ones and added some worse new ones ;)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: mhensley on July 04, 2011, 09:50:11 AM
supporting evidence-

http://bit.ly/jP2LXu

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/16211
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Blackhand on July 04, 2011, 11:06:34 AM
How is this in any way shocking?

Other than it's behaving exactly like everyone has believed it would for the past two years?
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 12:39:08 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466540Still D&D falling behind on print sales is huge.

If WotC was still selling their product that way.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 01:00:04 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466577If WotC was still selling their product that way.

Seanchai

I think they are definitely forward thinking with DDI. And i dont think it is just about print sales these days. But i suspect print sales still matter for wotc, and there just seems to be a bit of chaos emanating from them lately.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 04, 2011, 01:20:20 PM
I'm waiting for the 5e announcement. I bet it comes this GenCon.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 01:39:40 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466580But i suspect print sales still matter for wotc...

And yet they're not even releasing a print product per month...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: jeff37923 on July 04, 2011, 01:49:34 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466577If WotC was still selling their product that way.

Seanchai

Quote from: Seanchai;466585And yet they're not even releasing a print product per month...

Seanchai

Quote from: Seanchai;466577Lalalalalalalala! La! La! I cannot hear you! My favorite game is still Number One!

Seanchai

Translated.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 02:08:58 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466585And yet they're not even releasing a print product per month...

Seanchai

I think its more likely they altered their print production schedule due to problems with print sales. Between lisa's statement, bill slavicsek's firing and recent release adjustments i am inclined to think wizard's is not thrilled with where 4e is right now.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 04, 2011, 02:13:38 PM
*is inclinded to think that thanks to NF's purchasing of 4th printing copies of Pathfinder RPG core rule book to random strangers, Lisa has a lot to be thankful for.*

I know my local comics and gaming store is happy. :P ;) My wallet...not so much.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Windjammer on July 04, 2011, 02:14:42 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466591I think its more likely they altered their print production schedule due to problems with print sales. Between lisa's statement, bill slavicsek's firing and recent release adjustments i am inclined to think wizard's is not thrilled with where 4e is right now.

Nor should they be. They've got largely to blame themselves. DDI apart (which, by the way, does not recruit new customers if you don't advertise it in new print product), WotC has largely abandoned 4E Classic and put all its eggs in one basket - Essentials. That alienated a large part of the 4.0 audience who refuse to buy Essentials stuff; even those who did not were seriously soured by 'Heroes of Shadow' (spring 2011), arguably the worst book containing game mechanics WotC released in the last ten years. Add in that a couple of excellent WotC titles, including the conversion guide for 4.0 <--> Essentials, were removed from the 2011 release schedule, and that part of the pulled material is now freely available on DDI (that is, to people without DDI subscription), and you see the perfect storm:

Paizo puts out a spade of product (including hotsellers like big player crunch hardcovers) while WotC has either stopped to sell stuff at all, or is selling to an ever shrinking audience which got hit by wave after wave of customer alienation since 2005. Seriously, I don't think 4E ever had that large an audience, and to splinter that fanbase with 'Essentials' backfired badly for WotC.

The real question for Paizo is how they are going to be doing by this time next year, when all the 'Completes' (player splat books) have been released, and they'd have to crank out their fourth Monster Manual. For that was precisely the point at which 4E stopped making serious money. There is, after all, only so much crunch you can sell to your audience. Luckily, Paizo have much else on offer besides, but I still think they should be wary of the future. Their present success otoh is deserved, I think, in that they were at the brink of going out (in 2007) and see where they are now.

PS. And some anecdotal evidence from local retail stores: all pre-Essential titles are now marked off 80% - you literally can't find them outside bargain bins - while even old Pathfinder stuff is sold for retail price (which for most European LGS means 'take the dollar price and append a Euro sign').
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Blackhand on July 04, 2011, 02:21:35 PM
One could dare to hope that the forthcoming setting material of different flavors (Oriental, Persian) could set the tone for the product going forth.

How much of 2e was setting material?

A metric fuckload.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 02:28:14 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466591I think its more likely they altered their print production schedule due to problems with print sales.

I think it's more likely that they realized they could make more money from DDI than print products.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 02:30:53 PM
Quote from: Windjammer;466593The real question for Paizo is how they are going to be doing by this time next year, when all the 'Completes' (player splat books) have been released, and they'd have to crank out their fourth Monster Manual. For that was precisely the point at which 4E stopped making serious money. There is, after all, only so much crunch you can sell to your audience.

Moreover, Paizo - especially with statement's like the CEO's - is no longer the underdog. What's going to happen when they can no longer reasonably play the "we're just a small business who loves its customers" martyr card?

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 02:34:17 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466596I think it's more likely that they realized they could make more money from DDI than print products.

Seanchai

Its entirely possible i am wrong. Time will show which conclusion is correct.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 02:37:32 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466597Moreover, Paizo - especially with statement's like the CEO's - is no longer the underdog. What's going to happen when they can no longer reasonably play the "we're just a small business who loves its customers" martyr card?

Seanchai

If they truly beat out wizards that may be a concern for them. But i think they have one strong advantage: they are a small company in a small industry and appear to be connected with their customers ( the ceo chiming in on a tgread is an example of this).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Soylent Green on July 04, 2011, 02:53:18 PM
I understand the historical significance of this and I appreciate the theological ramifications for the edition wars, but for me D&D or Pathfinder, it's all the same. The two games have a lot more in common than they have that is different.

I'ts kind of like when IBM sold it's PC business to China's Lenovo. For all the historical and symbolic importance by PC at work still does all the stuff it used to.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 04, 2011, 02:54:47 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466597Moreover, Paizo - especially with statement's like the CEO's - is no longer the underdog. What's going to happen when they can no longer reasonably play the "we're just a small business who loves its customers" martyr card?
Oh, I'm sure they will find some novel way to annoy you. :)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Windjammer on July 04, 2011, 03:00:13 PM
Quote from: Melan;466607Oh, I'm sure they will find some novel way to annoy you. :)

Yeah, this time next year we'll buy WotC products whose interior cover reads 'Compatible with the best selling roleplaying game' and whose backcovers will be graced by this logo:

(http://www.rpg-resource.org.uk/images/articles/3438/pathfinder-compatible-logo.jpg)

Edit. From the same seller linked to above, a statement re: the same situation (http://blackdiamondgames.blogspot.com/2010/10/fall-role-playing-sales.html) in October 2010:
QuoteBut is Pathfinder our number one game? I believe it was for a short time, just as Essentials was hitting. I made a grand pronouncement on Facebook that Pathfinder had hit our number one spot. That may have been premature. That was before I crunched these numbers and realized Dungeons & Dragons Essentials has been hitting them out of the park, and although Paizo is sitting at top positions on the chart, Essentials has re-invigorated the D&D line. It has been a mini re-release of D&D, adding new players to the game and inspiring the base. I've been selling Essentials products to teenagers lately, new gamers, something I haven't done much of in several years.

Got to re-evaluate my assessment that Essentials killed off 4E. If what the guy says here is correct, Essentials was a brief respite to an already dying game line.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 04, 2011, 03:01:49 PM
All I know is the splat attack won't come much further in 2012...maybe in 2013. We'll see.

Also you can NEVER have enough Bestiaries. Trust me.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 03:51:05 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466600...they are a small company in a small industry...

Which is it, they're small or they're number one?

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 04, 2011, 03:58:14 PM
Here's a link (http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboards/paizoPublishing/general/plansForPathfinderComputerGame&page=2#89) to how Lisa determined what was written above.

It's the sale of RPG books, it basically comes down to combining her print sales with her digital sales. She does not count D&D board games and such.

As for DDI, I know they recently switched the character builder to a web based app. I heard they've had a lot of compatibility problems and issues keeping it updated. Considering there are other options that offer the exact same functionality (powers & all), are more reliable and free, I can't imagine it's really doing all that well. My friends who pay do it for the Dragon and Dungeon articles.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 04:18:31 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466623Which is it, they're small or they're number one?

Seanchai

They aren't mutually exlusive. They are small in comparison to wizards and they are focused on their rpgs. There seems to be less of a disconnect between tbe corporate side of paizo and the design side.

But just to clarify, i am not saying they are number one(though they may be), just that i think wizards is not where they want to be with d&d right now.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: ggroy on July 04, 2011, 04:22:06 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466597Moreover, Paizo - especially with statement's like the CEO's - is no longer the underdog. What's going to happen when they can no longer reasonably play the "we're just a small business who loves its customers" martyr card?

They'll become public enemy number one.  :rolleyes:

Then their marketing strategy becomes:  "The customer can fuck off, because they can't do anything about it.  Ha! Ha! Ha!"

:banghead:
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Philotomy Jurament on July 04, 2011, 04:30:35 PM
Quote from: Omnifray;466544What is it exactly that most gamers seem not to like about 4e?
It's not that I think 4e is a bad game.  It's that 4e is not the game I want to play when I want to play "D&D."  I don't dislike 4e, I just don't care.  (I feel the same way about Pathfinder, though.)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Esgaldil on July 04, 2011, 06:09:35 PM
Quote from: Windjammer;466593...WotC has largely abandoned 4E Classic and put all its eggs in one basket - Essentials.

I'd go further - WotC in 2011 has largely abandoned both 4e Classic and 4e Essentials.  Heroes of Shadow is Half of the Player Books for 2011.  Half.  The DMs get a little bit more, but if it weren't for the board games and the books, there'd be little evidence that WotC even remembers it has the D&D licensce.  For Pathfinder to be outselling that kind of a release schedule is nice for Paizo, but mainly because it would be very embarassing if they couldn't.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 07:03:38 PM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466624She does not count D&D board games and such.

"Such" including the DDI, which is WotC's main source of revenue from D&D.

So Paizo, which releases a book or two a month, outsells WotC, which releases a book every few months, in most but not all, of the markets the CEO checks...which is how many and what kind of markets again? And this is exciting or interesting somehow?

When Paizo's CEO comes out and says, "We're making more money than WotC," let's talk...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 07:06:16 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466625They are small in comparison to wizards...

Are they? How many full time staffers do you think each has?

Obviously, both are tiny compared to corporate America. Hell, they're small compared to the last couple of organizations I worked for out in the real world and those weren't exactly large.

But let's look at just the RPG industry. If you want to decide a company is small or large based on the number of staffers, remember that WotC has been actively reducing the number of staff they have while Paizo has been adding them.

If you don't think staff is a good measure and want to look at sales...well, isn't the title of this thread "Pathfinder beats D&D in sales"?

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 04, 2011, 07:16:46 PM
I believe wizards has far more employees than paizo but that is just a guess. Wizards is also more than an rpg compoany. Paizo has the advantage that it can focus entirely on its rpgs. From where i am standing paizi looks like a more agile company. Again i could be completely wrong, however the evidence so far leads me to believe that wizards is losing its spot at the top of rpgs.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Philotomy Jurament on July 04, 2011, 08:01:35 PM
Writing about his time in Lake Geneva when WotC was buying TSR (http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?352786-The-Death-of-TSR...&p=7766559#post7766559), Ryan Dancey said the following:

Quote from: Ryan DanceyWe heard some things that are very, very hard for a company to hear...We heard the people felt that >we< were irrelevant.

I think that's exactly what's happening to WotC, today.  A significant portion of the D&D market has decided that what WotC is currently doing and selling is irrelevant to its D&D gaming.  It's really as simple as that.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 04, 2011, 08:08:22 PM
I will never understand blind loyalty to a corporation, where someone will defend a company to ridiculous lengths. If a product is pdf only, it's sales will be a tenth of a comparable print product, and that's only if it's a big company pushing it.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Doom on July 04, 2011, 09:47:40 PM
I honesty thought I'd not see the day, it's as stunning as some company selling baking soda outselling Arm and Hammer in any baking soda category.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 10:00:11 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466641I believe wizards has far more employees than paizo but that is just a guess. Wizards is also more than an rpg compoany.

True. How many employees does it take to move a company from "small" to medium or large? How many full-time folks does Paizo have?

If you check out Paizo's information on the web, they don't make it sound as if they're a small company: "Paizo Publishing®, LLC is a leading publisher of fantasy roleplaying games, accessories, board games, and novels. Paizo's Pathfinder® line of rules, adventures, sourcebooks, and campaigns combines decades of game design experience into one evocative system compatible with the 3.5 rules. Paizo's GameMastery® accessories offer easy-to-use tools aimed at improving the tabletop RPG experience. Paizo's board game imprint unleashes fun, challenging games like Kill Doctor Lucky™ and Yetisburg™ that appeal to both families and casual gamers alike. Paizo's Planet Stories® line of science fiction and fantasy novels promise thrilling adventure of the like not seen since the legendary pulps. Paizo.com is the leading online hobby retail store, offering tens of thousands of products from a variety of publishers to customers all over the world. In the seven years since its founding, Paizo Publishing has received more than a dozen major industry awards and has grown to become one of the most influential companies in the hobby games industry."

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 04, 2011, 10:03:55 PM
Quote from: danbuter;466649If a product is pdf only, it's sales will be a tenth of a comparable print product, and that's only if it's a big company pushing it.

It will?

But when looking at the contrast between Paizo and WotC, it's important to understand that the DDI isn't PDFs of their products. It isn't some secondary source of information, a copy of something. It is the product.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: ggroy on July 04, 2011, 10:42:06 PM
Quote from: danbuter;466649I will never understand blind loyalty to a corporation, where someone will defend a company to ridiculous lengths.

A similar thing can be said about other niches which attract such blind loyalty, such as:

- rock bands
- countries
- religions
- sports teams
- authority figures
- style of music
- certain product brands
- any large group/organization in general.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 04, 2011, 11:03:12 PM
Quote from: danbuter;466649If a product is pdf only, it's sales will be a tenth of a comparable print product, and that's only if it's a big company pushing it.

Ebooks took over dead tree sales a couple years ago. The majority of RPG products are .pdf ONLY because they would not sell a 1/10 the number of copies at retail. Many of the bigger publishers (SJ Games, White-Wolf) have abandoned dead tree damn near completely for .pdf sales. The only company I can think of that is still predominantly dead tree is Palladium.

Also, I would not place Paizo in the "Small Company" list. Paizo also makes board games and other things. They may be the most active publisher of RPG materials with Corebooks, Modules, Cards and other supplements coming out multiple times a month. Either Paizo or FFG are the number 2 (if not the number 1) RPG publisher.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Novastar on July 05, 2011, 02:02:17 AM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466661Ebooks took over dead tree sales a couple years ago.
Be careful with that statement; I've been informed over 70% of those e-books are technical in nature (professional and collegiate texts, etc).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: StormBringer on July 05, 2011, 03:04:05 AM
Quote from: Novastar;466675Be careful with that statement; I've been informed over 70% of those e-books are technical in nature (professional and collegiate texts, etc).
Then again, among the first books hot off the Gutenberg press were Bibles and scholarly theses; as much the 'professional and collegiate' text at the time as any contemporary trigonometry book or repair manual.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 05, 2011, 04:12:17 AM
In the meantime I'll just ready myself for Carrion Crown, my revenge AND trying to get my paladin-hood back for Hasini via a semi-dumb DM ruling. :P
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 05, 2011, 06:41:42 AM
I dont think there is an absolute cut off for small medium and large in this sense. Believe what i really have in mind is agility, connection to customers and nature of the leadership. With paizo i just get the sense they are more in touch with their customers, their leadership is more in touch with the hobby and design, and they can pivot pretty easily. These assumptions could be wrong. It is just my impression. And that doesn't mean wizards doesn' have its own strong advantages.  But presently all the evidence i am seeing is that 4e isnt performing as well as wizards expected. Believe this is why slavicsek is gone, why pathfinder is doing so well, and why wizards doesn't have a clear sense of direction (at least i don't see that they do).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Peregrin on July 05, 2011, 07:31:10 AM
Good for them, I guess, whatever this actually ends up meaning.  But this point it's hard for me to give a shit when neither company has had much influence on my gaming since 05.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Peregrin on July 05, 2011, 07:38:15 AM
Quote from: Philotomy Jurament;466647Writing about his time in Lake Geneva when WotC was buying TSR (http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?352786-The-Death-of-TSR...&p=7766559#post7766559), Ryan Dancey said the following:



I think that's exactly what's happening to WotC, today.  A significant portion of the D&D market has decided that what WotC is currently doing and selling is irrelevant to its D&D gaming.  It's really as simple as that.

Speaking anecdotally, I would say wotc initially capitalized on young teems crazy about Tolkien like myself back at 3es launch, and that to most people, anything past 3.0 had no significance.  3.5 was cited as having significantly fewer corebook sales than 3e.  Whatever audience paizo has at this point is most likely hobbyist in nature, as most people I know still use 3.0 and do not have contact with the hobby as a whole.  I think overall 4e may have brought in more fresh blood than paizo, especially.given their cross promotions with more significant venues for entertainment and gaming, even if this influx is not enough to make up for the loss of the more dedicated fans who like earlier editions.

But I mean, that's what happens when you release a mostly functional game to a bunch of young geeks who have plenty of other mediums to vet their game on.  You're not going to shell.out for a new d&d, whether a half edition or not, when what you have has served you fine (in your mind, anyway), and a new xbox is more important in terms of geek socialization (since video games are now a defaut lynchpin for healthy youth socializing).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 05, 2011, 11:57:48 AM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466714With paizo i just get the sense they are more in touch with their customers, their leadership is more in touch with the hobby and design, and they can pivot pretty easily.

I would certainly agree that Paizo's upper management is more in touch with the hobby. I don't know about "pivoting" easily, however - wasn't the stated reason behind Pathfinder the fact that they couldn't produce 4e materials with the time they had to do so?

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466714Believe this is why slavicsek is gone...

Slavicsek's departure could also be explained by a personality conflict, differing ideas about where D&D and the company should go, and a host of other normal reasons why people leave companies. And, as we know, WotC has a history of laying people off.

Also, WotC has a new corporate head from Hasbro, they just changed business models, and the United States economy - and it's associated unemployment rate - is still in the toilet.

It could be that D&D isn't performing well, but that's certainly not the sole (or, in my estimation, most likely) explanation for why Slavicsek was let go.  

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466714why pathfinder is doing so well...

It is? We've heard that it's outselling D&D, but without context and with barely any new D&D products being put on the shelves, that's nigh meaningless.

It might be doing well. I can only say that the Pathfinder sections in my two FLGSes are pretty pitiful.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 05, 2011, 12:00:07 PM
Quote from: Novastar;466675Be careful with that statement; I've been informed over 70% of those e-books are technical in nature (professional and collegiate texts, etc).

I'd be cautious as well. I'm sure sales of print books are down and I don't doubt publishers embrace e-publishing, but it seems to me that whether or not an e-book will outsell a hard copy has a lot of variables...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 05, 2011, 12:09:26 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466757It is? We've heard that it's outselling D&D, but without context and with barely any new D&D products being put on the shelves, that's nigh meaningless.

It might be doing well. I can only say that the Pathfinder sections in my two FLGSes are pretty pitiful.

Seanchai

The Pathfinder section at my local LGS is twice as big as the 4e section, and the owner has stated it sells much better. Maybe it's a regional thing. Of course, I'm sure he's losing sales to B&N and Borders, who both carry 4e. Borders also has Pathfinder books, but B&N doesn't.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 05, 2011, 12:11:10 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466758I'd be cautious as well. I'm sure sales of print books are down and I don't doubt publishers embrace e-publishing, but it seems to me that whether or not an e-book will outsell a hard copy has a lot of variables...

Seanchai

Books are a luxury. Many people have probably quit buying them and are actually going to the library for their fix, nowadays.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 05, 2011, 12:19:35 PM
Thanks for the responses seanchai. Can't quote you as i am on i phone for the next week. Will try to address your points:

Pivoting: i do think they can pivot better than wizards if onlybecause they are a more focused company and i assume (due to them not being part of hasbro or wizards) they have fewer corporate layers to cut through for decisions. I imagine the real reason they stuck with 3e is they had a wealth of 3e material in development and they didn't want to deal with the 4e license.

Slavicsek: he was the head of r&d. I just dont see him leaving over a personality conflict. If there had been one would expect the person lower on the totem to go. Sure its possible he left voljntarily i simply dont see that as the most plausible explanation. Especially given all the evidence that 4e isnt performing well. I also doubt they let him go to cut costs. Its subjective but that is my reading of it.

Pathfinder doing well: i find lisa's statement quite convincing and i think if it is outselling 4e in print that is very significant. I also see a lot of evidence locally that pathfinder is doing well and 4e is having problems. Personally i don't play either but i am active in my gaming community and seeing a shift in favor of pathfinder.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 05, 2011, 12:21:57 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466758I'd be cautious as well. I'm sure sales of print books are down and I don't doubt publishers embrace e-publishing, but it seems to me that whether or not an e-book will outsell a hard copy has a lot of variables...

Seanchai

Right now our print books outsell our pdfs by a huge margin. However we haven't explored things like kindle format (as some others are).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: hexgrid on July 05, 2011, 03:52:04 PM
Quote from: mhensley;466554supporting evidence-

http://bit.ly/jP2LXu

Interesting that according to that chart, WotC D&D sales are up this year from last year, even if you don't factor in DDI.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 05, 2011, 05:07:45 PM
Quote from: danbuter;466759The Pathfinder section at my local LGS is twice as big as the 4e section, and the owner has stated it sells much better. Maybe it's a regional thing.

Or an individual store thing. Also, the owner of one of my FLGSes likes 4e, play 4e, hosts Encounters, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if that has something to do with the popularity of 4e in his store. (He likes Pathfinder, too, as far as I am aware, but is actually running a 4e game.)

Quote from: danbuter;466759Of course, I'm sure he's losing sales to B&N and Borders, who both carry 4e.

And Amazon and DDI.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 05, 2011, 05:22:41 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466762... they have fewer corporate layers to cut through for decisions.

I think that's certainly an advantage Paizo has over WotC. But I would think whether or not they "pivot" is also dependent on the company's culture. I don't know what Paizo's is like - the only example I have is their choices about getting on board with 4e.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466762I imagine the real reason they stuck with 3e is they had a wealth of 3e material in development...

Yeah: Pathfinder.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466762Slavicsek: he was the head of r&d. I just dont see him leaving over a personality conflict. If there had been one would expect the person lower on the totem to go.

We don't know what it's like inside WotC. I haven't heard anything bad, but who knows? Moreover, a new boss coming in and someone in the organization leaving or being forced out is a story as old as time and as common as clocks.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466762Sure its possible he left voljntarily i simply dont see that as the most plausible explanation.

I don't think he left voluntarily either...

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466762i find lisa's statement quite convincing and i think if it is outselling 4e in print that is very significant.

The CEO's statement was about the number of copies sold, not sales in general. And it was in select markets. Was that just stores in the Seattle area? Her company's distributors? Online book sellers? And Pathfinder wasn't outselling 4e in all of them, just most. How many is "most"? Six out of ten? Eight of ten?

Moreover (and more importantly), have you noticed that these stories of Pathfinder outselling 4e started to crop up only as WotC's released schedule thinned? Nobody was saying Pathfinder was outselling in August 2009 when WotC was putting out three books a month. It's only now that Pathfinder is catching up and over taking them.

I wouldn't be surprised if Paizo is doing well, but I don't think the CEO's statement is evidence of anything save the number of copies of print books sold in whatever markets she was referring to.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Fiasco on July 05, 2011, 05:35:52 PM
Would Paizo's annual report/return be available to the public?
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 05, 2011, 05:45:22 PM
If her info was correct i think it is telling. She was told by her distributors that patgfinder was outperforming 4e in most markets. We dont know which, but we know its the majority of them. A quick look on amazon shows it is outselling 4e there as well.

I agree it takes two to tango and wizards thinning production schedule could be part of the mix. But their production schedule could be thinning because they are losing ground to pathinder and trying to re-group. That was part of the chaos i mentioned before. Between lisa's statement, bill's departure and their production schedule i tend to think things are not where wizards wants them to be.  But who knows, they could be planning something big that will blow us all away or bring pathfinder people back to 4e. While i don't enjoy 4e as an rpg i was very impressed with castle ravenloft and plan on buying conquest of nerath (and cr definitely used 4e as a base).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 05, 2011, 05:46:50 PM
Quote from: Fiasco;466806Would Paizo's annual report/return be available to the public?

I think this has come up before but the problem is d&d is such a small part of what hasbro does their numbers tend to be buried in the reports.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 05, 2011, 06:12:46 PM
Paizo has repeatedly said the interest in there game is growing since it's release. Their core books sales have increased year to year since release.

It's also not the first time Pathfinder was beating D&D. Just before Essentials was released, there was a period of a couple months where Paizo was also outselling D&D.

Is D&D still the #1 game. I'm sure. Paizo would need Pathfinder on top for a couple years to catch up. However, it's possible and easily conceivable that they are winning right now.

4e is long in the tooth. After years playing 4e, I'm sure many people would be checking out the game stocked right next to it in bookstores.

4e has probably hit it's saturation point. Few gamers that haven't already bought 4e are going to buy it now.

WOTC output for new books has been really shitty lately. Very fringe releases and many core supplements OOP. Not so with Paizo, with the relatively small number of books in the line and all of the core supplements are still in print.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Doom on July 05, 2011, 09:16:45 PM
Having read through the PF rulebook, I find it longer in the tooth than 4e, since PF isn't that much different from 3.0/3.5.

That said, I think 4e's issues with gameplay past the first few levels kind of make it tough to have much in the way of legs. WotC's emphasis on hardcover rulebooks and books and books over adventures and setting also didn't help--if the establishes rules don't work, I'm not motivated to buy any more rulebooks to add to the pile, while I might be tempted to buy a good adventure or setting.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: 1989 on July 05, 2011, 10:46:31 PM
"Scott is totally right here. Pathfinder has surpassed D&D in most of the markets that I check. At this time in history, that is what I have been told by people in the hobby distribution trade, the book trade, and other avenues that both games sell their products into. If you talk to the various retailers, it is a mixed bag, with one telling you one thing and another a different story. But when you talk to the folks who sell those retailers the product that they sell, then you get a clearer picture. And I am just talking table-top RPG business. I am not talking about board games or card games or video games or whatnot. Just books and digital copies of those books for use in playing a table-top RPG." -- Lisa Stevens, Paizo CEO


Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, 4oron.

4e is a pile of shit, and everyone who plays it is a f*cking moron. 3e is also a pile of shit, though not so putrid as 4e. All hail TSR-era D&D.

When I think back to the time shortly after the release of 4e, where all the 4orons declared that 4e was the best iteration of D&D, yet, I can't help but laugh, their stupidity now laid bare for all to see.

D&D has been beat by a clone with a name so retarded as "Pathfinder". Hard to believe. But at the same time, not so hard to believe.

I hope that every man involved in the design of 4e receives his portion of cosmic karma for designing such a pile of shit and unleashing it upon the world. F*cking clueless asshats.

4e is being marched to the gallows even as we speak.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Peregrin on July 05, 2011, 11:08:02 PM
-5/10

4chan has ten year olds that can troll better.  That was just awful, man.

Which website you from, though?  What's your real handle?
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: 1989 on July 05, 2011, 11:25:31 PM
Quote from: Peregrin;466837-5/10

4chan has ten year olds that can troll better.  That was just awful, man.

Which website you from, though?  What's your real handle?

4chan? What the hell is that?

You probably play 4e. Dumbass.

Nice avatar -- f*cking Japanese cartoons. Goes well with your anime powerz-inspired, new-school D&D.

You = fail.

Go back to fapping it to your sailor girl anime.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 06, 2011, 02:10:37 AM
Okay, that's officially great. Keep going! :D
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Reckall on July 06, 2011, 02:23:08 AM
Quote from: Windjammer;466593PS. And some anecdotal evidence from local retail stores: all pre-Essential titles are now marked off 80% - you literally can't find them outside bargain bins

OTOH 3/3.5 stuff is valued his weight in gold, at least on the internet. I put books in my "to buy" basket marked at $25 and after two days the price had jumped to $75 ("Drows of the Underdark").

2E/4E products, it turn, are usually sold at a discount. Pity that I don't care about them.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Esgaldil on July 06, 2011, 02:28:21 AM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466807While i don't enjoy 4e as an rpg i was very impressed with castle ravenloft and plan on buying conquest of nerath (and cr definitely used 4e as a base).

The Castle Ravenloft and Wrath of Ashardalon 4e elements are completely absent in Conquest of Nerath - it's got no RPG elements from any system.  There are Fighters, Wizards, and Dungeons, but these are all thoroughly integrated parts of a tightly constructed wargame.  The only connection to 4e is the use of a world map that has place names referred to in the 4e core world material, including "dungeons" named Tomb of Horrors and Vault of the Drow.  The Treasures also have familiar names, but they do not belong to the pieces that win them, they belong to the whole army.

If you are looking for a board game that combines warfare with RPG elements, you might consider Runewars or Age of Conan.  Nerath is good, but it's more similar to Axis & Allies than anything with an adventuring feel.  If you are looking for more in the same vein of Castle and Wrath, try Descent (I'm assuming you already play Arkham Horror).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 06, 2011, 03:17:25 AM
In the interim, so far Seanchai and I haven't come to blows. But then again it's probably because I'm at that stage where he says something, I semi-ignore and pretend all is right with the world. :p :)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 06, 2011, 06:08:48 AM
Esgadil. Thanks for thd info.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: The Butcher on July 06, 2011, 08:11:14 AM
All trolling aside (I have nothing against 4e and its fans, in fact I'm playing in a 4e game), my initial reaction did go someting like this:

Quote from: 1989;466835D&D has been beat by a clone with a name so retarded as "Pathfinder". Hard to believe.

All things considered, I wonder whether it would be a good solution for Hasbro to license the D&D RPG to Paizo, while retaining the D&D IP for board games, miniatures and other assorted paraphernalia. Kind of like GW licensed the Warhammer RPGs to Green Ronin, and later FFG.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: David Johansen on July 06, 2011, 08:32:35 AM
huh... one version of D&D is beating another version of D&D out there on the market.  It's a scenario that never could have played out without WotC's OGL.  I guess that's a big deal.  And i'll admit I'm enjoying my popcorn by the fire.

But I still liked it better when Traveller and Vampire were beating D&D and I remember how short lived those events were.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 06, 2011, 11:25:17 AM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466807But their production schedule could be thinning because they are losing ground to pathinder and trying to re-group.

Or it could be thinning because they got a new corporate head from Hasbro who saw that a move from print to digital would increase profits and reduce costs.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466809I think this has come up before but the problem is d&d is such a small part of what hasbro does their numbers tend to be buried in the reports.

He was actually asking about Paizo...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 06, 2011, 11:30:47 AM
Quote from: Reckall;466851OTOH 3/3.5 stuff is valued his weight in gold, at least on the internet. I put books in my "to buy" basket marked at $25 and after two days the price had jumped to $75 ("Drows of the Underdark").

Where are you buying product at?

http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1311&_nkw=dungeons+and+dragons+3.5&_sacat=See-All-Categories (http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1311&_nkw=dungeons+and+dragons+3.5&_sacat=See-All-Categories)

It looks like Drow of the Underdark is a particularly hot item (of course, you can still get it for basically the cover price on Amazon.com). The rest of the books seem to be selling at cover price or less...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 06, 2011, 11:31:10 AM
Quote from: Seanchai;466903Or it could be thinning because they got a new corporate head from Hasbro who saw that a move from print to digital would increase profits and reduce

Seanchai

this is possible. But i would expect a more clear and organized transition. Changes to production schedule seem more last minute and confused than planned out to me. You make a strong argument, i just fall down on the either side after examining the different possibilities.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 06, 2011, 11:47:06 AM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466906But i would expect a more clear and organized transition.

Because changes usually occur in a clear and organized fashion in the corporate world?

An abrupt switch, confused staff, confused/lacking statements to the public, layoffs, leadership changes, a sweeping change in the production schedule, et al., are exactly what I'd expect to see from this sort of thing.

As a bibliophile and avid consumer, I don't like all of it, but I can certainly see where the corporate guy is coming from. They get to drop distributor fees, distributor headaches, warehousing costs, retailer problems/questions, and the staff associated with those sorts of things; the cost and staff associated with the laying out, production, and mailing of physical books; reduce staff producing art and copy; etc.. And they still get a health, predictably enough revenue stream.

Consider: If there are a million 4e players out there and only one fifth of them purchase a monthly DDI subscription, that's $14,280,000 a year gross. Just from DDI. Any physical products they sell are just icing on the cake. And as much of that is basically pre-orders, that's money in the bank.

You don't find the idea of a big move to digital compelling? 'Cause I sure do.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Bedrockbrendan on July 06, 2011, 12:01:12 PM
I would expect them to follow through on products they announced were in the pipeline. If only to avoid resentment from customers.

In terms of how much ddi is making that is very hard to estimate. We don't know how much they invested in its development, how much it costs to market and maintain. I dont pretend to know how much any of these companies are making on a given product because there are so many other costs involved. I do think ddi is a good idea. But i am not convinced that recent changes at wizards has to do with a move to ddi.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Peregrin on July 06, 2011, 02:19:55 PM
Quote from: 1989Go back to fapping it to your sailor girl anime.

Only if you'll watch it with me, sugar.  You're just so feisty, it's driving me crazy!

The only condition is that I get to be the top.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 06, 2011, 02:23:29 PM
In other news, NF is remembering why thread fighting is a pointless exercise. Oh and Carrion Crown AP is much better than he expected. Which just means it's super awesome. :p ;)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 06, 2011, 02:51:36 PM
Quote from: Peregrin;466938Only if you'll watch it with me, sugar.  You're just so feisty, it's driving me crazy!

The only condition is that I get to be the top.
Also, sailor girl anime? Isn't that... uh... old? By anime standards, I mean.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Peregrin on July 06, 2011, 02:56:50 PM
Quote from: Melan;466941Also, sailor girl anime? Isn't that... uh... old? By anime standards, I mean.

Depends what he meant.  Girls still wear sailor uniforms in Japan, and that's reflected in high-school drama shows.  And magical girl shows are still coming out.  But Sailor Moon is pretty ancient at this point (I've never watched it--it came out when I was 5).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: StormBringer on July 06, 2011, 05:08:10 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466905Where are you buying product at?

http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1311&_nkw=dungeons+and+dragons+3.5&_sacat=See-All-Categories

It looks like Drow of the Underdark is a particularly hot item (of course, you can still get it for basically the cover price on Amazon.com). The rest of the books seem to be selling at cover price or less...

Seanchai
Looks like it is a particularly hot item on the secondary market.  If it is showing up on eBay in large numbers, that means large numbers of people are trying to offload it, and hoping for something close to what they paid so as to make the loss not sting so much.  It is akin to claiming that the Washington Wizards must be a great team, because everyone is trying to sell their trading cards on eBay or at the local card shop.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: StormBringer on July 06, 2011, 05:31:36 PM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466910I would expect them to follow through on products they announced were in the pipeline. If only to avoid resentment from customers.

In terms of how much ddi is making that is very hard to estimate. We don't know how much they invested in its development, how much it costs to market and maintain. I dont pretend to know how much any of these companies are making on a given product because there are so many other costs involved. I do think ddi is a good idea. But i am not convinced that recent changes at wizards has to do with a move to ddi.
But we can guesstimate from past performance.  TSR was notorious for fucking up electronic media, and the first couple of tries by WotC weren't much better.  

For example, how is that DDI Virtual Table working out?  It really shouldn't be in beta eight months along (and those are just some of the more recent announcements/comments from November - DDI's Virtual Table is supposed to have been in the works since 2008 or so).  There are dozens of virtual tables out there, and several are open source, so they could have used one of those as a template of sorts instead of starting essentially from scratch.  The whole project feels like they think it is some radical new technology that no one else has done before.  Which tells me they are making more and more demands from the design team, and they have probably wandered into 'undeliverable' territory with some of their recent specifications.

I could post a dozen pages of Google hits with further complaints about DDI, but all it seems to be at the moment is an online powers reference and character generation program.  If it wouldn't land me in legal hot water, I could shit one of those out over a weekend; WotC has had 3+ years and a team of developers working on this.  Instead of haphazardly tossing them all over the site, they could have maps and weekly adventures as a freebie to entice subscribers.  Almost any periodic material one could expect to find in Dragon or Dungeon could be collected under DDI, some free, some behind the paywall.

I have grave doubts DDI is doing much more than barely breaking even at this point.  It may never do more than that, if they don't figure out what materials will give them the best leverage over their consumers' wallets and tenaciously pursue those goals.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 06, 2011, 07:15:18 PM
Quote from: SeanchaiConsider: If there are a million 4e players out there and only one fifth of them purchase a monthly DDI subscription, that's $14,280,000 a year gross. Just from DDI. Any physical products they sell are just icing on the cake. And as much of that is basically pre-orders, that's money in the bank.



If there are 1 million D&D players (WotC actual estimate). The average game has 4 players + GM. That means there are appx. 200,000 tables. If half of those tables subscribe to DDI (still a generous assumption, there's not much need for more then one subscription per group and there are plenty of free character builder competitors) then you have 100,000 subscriptions. That's just over $7 million per year revenue at the lowest subscription rate. It's probably mostly profit, but it accounts for, at best, half their revenue for the D&D brand. I'm sure the boardgames alone turn over more then 7 Million a year.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: ggroy on July 06, 2011, 07:24:51 PM
Quote from: StormBringer;466965Which tells me they are making more and more demands from the design team, and they have probably wandered into 'undeliverable' territory with some of their recent specifications.

In other words, a project in a "death march" phase.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_march_%28project_management%29

Quote from: StormBringer;466965I could post a dozen pages of Google hits with further complaints about DDI, but all it seems to be at the moment is an online powers reference and character generation program.  If it wouldn't land me in legal hot water, I could shit one of those out over a weekend; WotC has had 3+ years and a team of developers working on this.

Wonder if WotC outsourced the DDI programming to India, or hired a "gang that couldn't shoot straight" bunch of programmers.

:banghead:

:rolleyes:
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: StormBringer on July 07, 2011, 12:38:11 AM
Quote from: ggroy;466976In other words, a project in a "death march" phase.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_march_%28project_management%29
Probably.  I mean, if they are spending eight months, a year, or whatever re-inventing current technology, something has gone catastrophically wrong.


QuoteWonder if WotC outsourced the DDI programming to India, or hired a "gang that couldn't shoot straight" bunch of programmers.

:banghead:

:rolleyes:
From the reactions I found written late last year, it sounds more like the latter.  Most people seemed to be under the impression there is just the one dev team on this, but the consistency of the issues people wrote about points to them being either wildly incompetent, or going off some very vague specs that are constantly revised by WotC.

Whether or not that team is internal to WotC or third party is something I don't recall being heavily invested in.  Either way, WotC is maintaining TSR's track record of being utterly clueless when it comes to technology.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: mhensley on July 07, 2011, 06:37:11 AM
Quote from: StormBringer;467021, or going off some very vague specs that are constantly revised by WotC.

Gee, welcome to the club.  I build websites for the gubmint and we easily spend years on projects due to the constantly changing requirements and managers who have no fricking clue what they want or what is possible.  Seeing that wotc has no real plan for D&D and keeps shifting their priorities there, it's easy to guess why their software development is so slow and ineffectual - bad management.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Tetsubo on July 07, 2011, 09:36:03 AM
Quote from: Ian Warner;466530Grim summed it up best on Twitter.

"They went after a new target ignoring their fanatical niche."

I think that is just beautiful. And as far as I am concerned, correct.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 07, 2011, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: BedrockBrendan;466910In terms of how much ddi is making that is very hard to estimate.

The same could be said of print sales. In both cases, the folks who actually know don't say, but we guesstimate anyway.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 07, 2011, 10:56:19 AM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466975If there are 1 million D&D players (WotC actual estimate). The average game has 4 players + GM. That means there are appx. 200,000 tables. If half of those tables subscribe to DDI (still a generous assumption, there's not much need for more then one subscription per group and there are plenty of free character builder competitors) then you have 100,000 subscriptions.

First, there are plenty of free 4e character builders out there? Where?

Second, huh? Why is looking at the number of tables more relevant than looking at the number of players? I know some people use other people's log in information, but 4 out of 5? That's a little high.

Quote from: KrakaJak;466975I'm sure the boardgames alone turn over more then 7 Million a year.

No doubt. Which is why I think Hasbro or WotC's management is being draconian about cutting costs and making D&D as profitable as possible.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Esgaldil on July 07, 2011, 11:28:09 AM
If you want a free Character Builder, you will find it.  I have seen Builders made from scratch using Excel and mods to the old downloadable WotC Builder which keep it up to date.  I don't think there are a great many, but there certainly are enough, for Mac or PC.

As to the larger question of how many subscriptions are being bought, I don't think anyone here has a clue or a way to estimate.  Here's a group I guarantee exists - design freaks, kids, and manchilds who never play 4e at all but still have a subscription to DDI.  Dozens?  Hundreds? Thousands? No way to know.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: SowelBlack on July 07, 2011, 11:35:02 AM
Quote from: ggroy;466976Wonder if WotC outsourced the DDI programming to India, or hired a "gang that couldn't shoot straight" bunch of programmers.

My wife's company (she's a project manager for a big bank/credit card company) outsourced most development to India 6-8 years ago.  Now they are insourcing it back.  Its a lot easier for analysits/designers/architects/programmers to build the same thing if they are all in the same building or at least the same city.  And even better when the subject matter experts can also be in the same meeting physically.  (Something I told them when I worked at the same company.)

Plus, salaries are rising in the countries where the work was outsourced to, so the cost savings aren't as much.  And the people doing the work were turning over more frequently (again due to salaries rising, but also the other jobs there--working in india for an indian company for example are more desirable: no late night calls to the US, etc.)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: hexgrid on July 07, 2011, 12:19:41 PM
Quote from: Esgaldil;467090As to the larger question of how many subscriptions are being bought, I don't think anyone here has a clue or a way to estimate.  

There's a group on community.wizards.com that DDI subscribers are automatically a member of.

Right now, it has 56,592 members. I'm not sure if canceling your subscription automatically removes you from the group.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Halloween Jack on July 07, 2011, 12:21:21 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;466597Moreover, Paizo - especially with statement's like the CEO's - is no longer the underdog. What's going to happen when they can no longer reasonably play the "we're just a small business who loves its customers" martyr card?

Seanchai
Sooner or later, Paizo will release some kind of new edition of Pathfinder. Then a portion of their existing fanbase can freak out and cry that they've been betrayed and Paizo has told them their business isn't wanted.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 07, 2011, 02:25:39 PM
Quote from: Halloween Jack;467097Sooner or later, Paizo will release some kind of new edition of Pathfinder. Then a portion of their existing fanbase can freak out and cry that they've been betrayed and Paizo has told them their business isn't wanted.

My guess is that it won't be pretty either.

Paizo has, intentionally or not, been positioned as the caring alternate, the Apple of the RPG world, and people signed on because of that zeitgeist. After all, geeks love the disaffected underdog. WotC never had that. WotC picked up right where "T$R" left off and has always been the faceless corporate goon. When Paizo "betrays the trust" of it's fans, there's gonna be some apeshit on the Internets.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 07, 2011, 02:39:57 PM
Quote from: Seanchai;467117WotC never had that. WotC picked up right where "T$R" left off and has always been the faceless corporate goon.
Revisionist history; they had a lot of goodwill until the mid 2000s or so. Ditching much of their staff who had been the human face of that goodwill (and building them up into competition exploiting that former image) must not have helped, though.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 07, 2011, 03:05:10 PM
Melan is correct. While a new edition of Pathfinder RPG WOULD probably divide the fan base, it won't sunder it completely. Mostly because the people in charge of it (Namely people like James Jacobs, Erik Mona) continue to be the face and representatives of this product. If that goes, then yeah there will be as much betrayal as people feel/felt about 4th edition.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: misterguignol on July 07, 2011, 03:15:26 PM
Quote from: Halloween Jack;467097Sooner or later, Paizo will release some kind of new edition of Pathfinder. Then a portion of their existing fanbase can freak out and cry that they've been betrayed and Paizo has told them their business isn't wanted.

It's quite possible that you're right, but I can't think of a good reason why they would do that!
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: danbuter on July 07, 2011, 05:26:11 PM
WotC was cool until they fired a bunch of devs within a year of publishing 3e. And then they released 3.5 only a couple years later.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Grymbok on July 07, 2011, 06:10:52 PM
Quote from: KrakaJak;466661Ebooks took over dead tree sales a couple years ago. The majority of RPG products are .pdf ONLY because they would not sell a 1/10 the number of copies at retail. Many of the bigger publishers (SJ Games, White-Wolf) have abandoned dead tree damn near completely for .pdf sales. The only company I can think of that is still predominantly dead tree is Palladium.

Yeah, those GURPS eBooks really fly off the shelves - http://e23.sjgames.com/hot.cgi

I'm pretty sure that e23 is the only place selling GURPS eBooks (couldn't find anywhere else on Google anyway) - and in six years of running the store they've managed a whole ten products which have sold in to four figures.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Zachary The First on July 07, 2011, 06:15:12 PM
I can't speak for anyone else, but I was pretty kindly disposed towards WotC at least through the announcement of 4e. That's around when I felt they really could have handled the transition a bit better--I'm sure none of us want to go into that again, but I just felt like they weren't exactly customer-friendly at that time. After that, I was still ok doing business with them up until they pulled all their pdfs without notice.
 
Now they don't have pdfs of the products I would want, and I don't play 4e. So I guess we don't have a lot to say to one another just now. I've sorta got my direction, and they have theirs, and the two lines have pretty much been heading away from one another for a while.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: RPGPundit on July 07, 2011, 06:22:41 PM
Quote from: Melan;467118Revisionist history; they had a lot of goodwill until the mid 2000s or so. Ditching much of their staff who had been the human face of that goodwill (and building them up into competition exploiting that former image) must not have helped, though.

Exactly.  They were running with massive good will all through 3e and the goodwill held them up in 3.5; it was all pretty much blown in the way they handled the announcement and early promotion of 4e, however.

RPGPundit
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: mhensley on July 07, 2011, 11:37:21 PM
wotc was cool up until hasbro bought them.  It's been all down hill since then.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: mhensley on July 07, 2011, 11:39:39 PM
wotc was cool up until 3.5 came out.  It's been all down hill since then.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 08, 2011, 12:47:11 AM
Quote from: Melan;467118Revisionist history; they had a lot of goodwill until the mid 2000s or so.

No. Once they purchased TSR and announced they were changing D&D, people went apeshit. There was a thread here not too long ago - after folks started claiming that people welcomed 3e with open arms - that linked to actual posts and messages from the time. I'd recommend checking it out.

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Justin Alexander on July 08, 2011, 01:36:25 AM
Quote from: Halloween Jack;467097Sooner or later, Paizo will release some kind of new edition of Pathfinder. Then a portion of their existing fanbase can freak out and cry that they've been betrayed and Paizo has told them their business isn't wanted.

Possibly. I think it largely depends on what the new edition of Pathfinder looks like. If it looks like:

(1) A new edition of Call of Cthulhu (nothing is changed); or
(2) Similar to the 3.0 -> 3.5 shift.

Then virtually no one is going to give a shit. And even those who decide to stick with Pathfinder 1.0 will continue buying Paizo's support material because conversion will be trivial or nonexistent.

If it's more in the range of a 3.5 -> Pathfinder conversion, it might create a little more friction.

Quote from: Seanchai;467165No. Once they purchased TSR and announced they were changing D&D, people went apeshit. There was a thread here not too long ago - after folks started claiming that people welcomed 3e with open arms - that linked to actual posts and messages from the time. I'd recommend checking it out.

I don't think anyone here claimed that WotC was universally adored.

Quote from: KrakaJak;466975It's probably mostly profit, but it accounts for, at best, half their revenue for the D&D brand. I'm sure the boardgames alone turn over more then 7 Million a year.

Rule of thumb is that publishers see about 40-50% of the cover price of a game. Let's assume 50% for the D&D boardgames (although that's unlikely). To see $7,000,000 in revenue from the boardgames, they'd need to be selling 200,000+ copies per year.

That's not impossible. But if so, then the D&D board games aren't just successful -- they're insanely successful.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Melan on July 08, 2011, 01:48:44 AM
Quote from: Seanchai;467165No. Once they purchased TSR and announced they were changing D&D, people went apeshit. There was a thread here not too long ago - after folks started claiming that people welcomed 3e with open arms - that linked to actual posts and messages from the time. I'd recommend checking it out.
I have; I was an avid reader of forums on the subject back then, in fact. It does not compare. 3e was by and large received with an outpouring of enthusiasm and renewed interest after a decade where AD&D had essentially been written off. There were people who did not like it, but a lot fewer; it was significantly less divisive than 4e. I think the most hostile reactions were under The Demise of Dungeons and Dragons (http://www.gamegrene.com/node/20) on Gamegrene; there were others, but not quite as many. The d20 license and the OGL was much more significant, and it won a lot of friends for WotC.

Actually, the 3.5 transition was also handled surprisingly well (although I personally saw it, and still see it as a step in the wrong direction).
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Nightfall on July 08, 2011, 03:00:36 AM
*was okay with 3.5 transition* It's just that step BETWEEN the two, 3.5 and 4th, that kind of killed off stuff. That and them pulling up Dragon and Dungeon mag for online only stuff.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Novastar on July 08, 2011, 03:26:45 AM
I remember people kvetching about WotC coming out with 3rd Edition, but most of us shrugged and said, "It's a new company. They want to put their spin on it, and re-sell the brand."

OGL & STL made a lot of people very happy, as they saw it as a way to "get into the business!" (i.e. a LOT of fantasy heart-breakers)

3.5 got some flack at my table, cause we had just upgraded from OCR d20 Star Wars to RCR d20 Star Wars, and now we needed new books for D&D too?!? Both also felt very much like incremental changes, like I was paying all over again for a 5% change to my game.
(lol, I would love to spend $60 to get a complete game again, in today's market)

But yeah, 4th Edition just felt like a big blow off.
It wasn't a dumb idea; in fact it's INTENT is something the hobby needs very badly: new players.
The problem is, it didn't feel like they were asking me to help people discover my hobby, so much as to fuck off, we got crack to sell to young kids.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Sacrificial Lamb on July 08, 2011, 04:24:50 AM
Quote from: Justin Alexander;467167Possibly. I think it largely depends on what the new edition of Pathfinder looks like. If it looks like:

(1) A new edition of Call of Cthulhu (nothing is changed); or
(2) Similar to the 3.0 -> 3.5 shift.

Then virtually no one is going to give a shit.

No one except Seanchai. :)
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Werekoala on July 08, 2011, 09:34:32 AM
3.0 got my group back into D&D for the first time in 10+ years (at the time of release) and we've played it regularly since. Didn't shift to 3.5, I tried 4e but wasn't terribly impressed, and I love Pathfinder but have never played because the fossilized old coots I play with wouldn't want to have to manually make a character, so there's no animosity towards 3.0 or WotC in my group at least.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Seanchai on July 08, 2011, 10:14:05 AM
Quote from: Melan;467169I was an avid reader of forums on the subject back then, in fact.

I was an avid participant - in fact, I think was the moderator of the official D&D mailing list or some such at the time. You claim whatever claims you'd like about how WotC and 3e were received and perceived, but having been there, I recognize revisionism when I see it...

Seanchai
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Elfdart on July 08, 2011, 08:38:32 PM
Quote from: 1989;466835D&D has been beat by a clone with a name so retarded as "Pathfinder".

Sigged!:rotfl:
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Casey777 on July 09, 2011, 01:08:46 AM
Quote from: Werekoala;467218I love Pathfinder but have never played because the fossilized old coots I play with wouldn't want to have to manually make a character

PCGen has at least partial support for Pathfinder chargen, player side especially. Dunno if that includes post-core rulebook or not, but hey it's free.

The Herolab commercial software should also do Pathfinder.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: KrakaJak on July 09, 2011, 08:41:52 AM
Quote from: hexgridRight now, it has 56,592 members.
Sounds about right. 100,000 was a high estimate on my end.

Quote from: GrimbokYeah, those GURPS eBooks really fly off the shelves - http://e23.sjgames.com/hot.cgi
Explains why SJ games chooses to focus on Munchkin and Cheap Dice games. I think Gurps 4e is a good game but I don't have clue 1 how they could make it more appealing.


On the topic of D&D 2nd edition growing pains: Between 2e and 3e, there was a lot of bitching and moaning until the new game actually came out. The it mostly died down. That was not the same with D&D 4e, where there was a lot of bitching and moaning and it only got worse with time; To the point the ENWorld and rpg.net message-boards topic banned 3e vs 4e discussion.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: David Johansen on July 09, 2011, 09:20:26 PM
Making GURPS 4e more appealing is really easy.  It needs some free supplements for GURPS lite covering Fantasy, Science Fiction, and Supers in a clean and clear and GENERIC fashion.

They've failed with things like GURPS WWII, HELLBOY, and Disc World because they're too specific to a specific niche.  As many people and more won't buy Hellboy as will buy it for the same reason: because it's Hellboy.

The absence of a Generic GURPS Fantasy Lite is really sad.  You'd need to reproduce a few pages from the Basic Set for the magic system and a few Pages from Bane Storm for races and monsters.  That's all it would take.

GURPS 4e is a great product to sell to GURPS fans but it's a lousy product for making new fans.  It's too big, intimidating, and complete.
Title: Pathfinder is beating D&D in sales
Post by: Haffrung on July 15, 2011, 02:12:09 AM
To me, the interesting thing about the success of Pathfinder isn't that 3.x still has a lot of adherents. It was always clear that many D&D players were fiercely resistant to giving up the system.

The interesting thing is Pathfinder has upturned WotC's longstanding wisdom that splats pay the bills and adventures don't make money. Paizo's business model is based on a regular flow of adventure material. The core books are gravy.

It's kinda cool to see adventure design at the heart of a successful RPG company, rather than splats and rules bloat. Stylistically, I'm not sure Paizo's adventure paths are my thing. But the format and execution are brilliant. They've tapped into a huge market for sparkling, professional adventure books that WotC had  neglected.