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Lets talk guns and granularity in RPGs

Started by GeekyBugle, April 25, 2021, 11:27:35 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

GeekyBugle

Quote from: Spinachcat on May 05, 2021, 12:13:40 AM
Guns need kewl names.

Beyond that, the granularity only matters in terms of game stats. Attack bonus, damage, armor penetration, effective range, extreme range, price.

Yeah, limiting the granularity but including a list of kewl names related to the granularity.
Quote from: Rhedyn

Here is why this forum tends to be so stupid. Many people here think Joe Biden is "The Left", when he is actually Far Right and every US republican is just an idiot.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."

― George Orwell

Spinachcat

Quote from: Kyle Aaron on April 29, 2021, 07:52:45 AM
just as any DM can have an invisible magic-user fireball the party.

Don't knock that! One of my favorite convention games STARTS with the PCs chilling in their favorite Ye Olde Tavern when it gets nuked by an invisible mage. They were 5th level and it was 22 damage, 11 if saved so even the Mage survived-ish.

Ghostmaker

Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 04, 2021, 11:20:44 PM
Some statistics might be of interest here.

Even cops mostly miss [pdf link, lengthy, below is from pp14-15].

QuoteOfficers involved in gunfights fired, on average, 7.6 rounds, compared with an average of 3.5 for officers who fired against subjects who did not return fire.

Between 1998 and 2006, the average hit rate was 18 percent for gunfights.

Between 1998 and 2006, the average hit rate in situations in which fire was not returned was 30 percent.

Accuracy improves at close range, with officers hitting their targets 37 percent of the time at distances of seven yards or less; at longer ranges, hit rates fall off sharply, to 23 percent.
Against a suspect firing back, 18% of 7.6 rounds struck, or 1.37 rounds on average. Against suspect not firing back, 30% of 3.5 rounds struck, or 1.05 rounds on average. So essentially they're firing until they get one hit, maybe two.

As for survival rates, the Brady United guys tell us,

34,566 are intentionally shot by someone else and survive, 14,062 are murdered - which is a 71% survival rate.

They also tell us that 521 are killed by legal intervention, and 1,376 are shot by legal intervention and survive, which is a 72% survival rate.

As well, 23,437 die from gun suicide, and 3,554 survive an attempted gun suicide - so even attempted suicide with a firearm has a 13% survival rate.

Going to the warfare side of things, about 90% of Americans who do die from combat wounds (not all or even mostly gunshot) do so before reaching medical care. Overall 92% of those wounded will survive. If the medic can keep you alive long enough to reach the hospital, you'll very probably make it.

In Conflict (which has now been published, see sig), if shot unarmoured then 78% of hits will be nonlethal; if armoured, 92% will be nonlethal. And "lethal" is just if you're untreated - treatment may save you, and if it's a proper physician with a trauma ward, very probably save you.

Honestly, the odds are better than for a 1st level AD&D character.
That's because contrary to popular belief, most police departments are not 'highly trained' in accuracy and firearm handling. At one point, one department (I want to say NYPD but I could be mistaken) was issuing ONE BOX of ammo to each officer to practice PER YEAR. As in, fifty rounds.

I'd also be very hesitant to take any data from Brady at face value. They have a vested interest in crapping all over legal firearms and self defense.

Kyle Aaron

You don't need desperate amounts of training to hit a man-sized target at under 7 yards 100% of the time on the range. Essentially anyone strong enough to hold up a pistol can do that. That's just adrenaline messing them up - plus, you know, it puts you off a bit when the other guy is trying to kill you. A wee bit distracting.

Soldiers get even worse hit rates, since their ranges are greater, and there are more people shooting back at them.

All I'm interested in here are survival rates from being shot. They've no reason to lie about that. And I'm not here to talk about firearms control, take your American politics elsewhere.

The point is simply that in combat people miss far, far more often than they hit with firearms, and that a surprising number of people survive gunshots, because modern medicine is awesome. And calibre etc really are not significant factors except when it comes to body armour.

Here is the most basic and realistic system for handgun combats,

Roll 1d6 for initiative.
+1 if you have extensive (2+ years) training, not just on the range.
+1 if you were lying in wait for him
+1 if there are more of you than the other guy

Roll 1d6 to hit. You hit on 6+
+0 if you've never fired in combat before
+1 if he is not shooting at you
+1 if you have extensive (2+ years) training, not just on the range
+0 at under 7 yards
- 1 at 7-14 yards, -2 at 15-21 yards, etc
-1 if he is wearing body armour.

Whoever is hit falls down and loses interest in proceedings. Go to hospital. Roll 1d6, on 1-2 you die, on 3-6 you live. Now roll 1d6 for how many months before you can return to duty - if you roll 6, roll again and add, and so on. If it's more than 12 months you retire with a disability pension.
The Viking Hat GM
Conflict, the adventure game of modern warfare
Wastrel Wednesdays, livestream with Dungeondelver

Chris24601

The only suggestion I'd make is to throw an extra +1 to hit if the target has no cover they can use (they call situations like that turkey shoots for a reason).

Ghostmaker

Well, are we talking cover or concealment? I admit D&D did make a good point of distinguishing those two. I would argue cover grants a hard bonus or even immunity unless your weapon's penetrating capability exceeds its durability (at which point it becomes concealment). Concealment might grant a -1 or more to hit depending on how much of the person is concealed.

oggsmash

#66
Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 05, 2021, 09:53:49 AM
You don't need desperate amounts of training to hit a man-sized target at under 7 yards 100% of the time on the range. Essentially anyone strong enough to hold up a pistol can do that. That's just adrenaline messing them up - plus, you know, it puts you off a bit when the other guy is trying to kill you. A wee bit distracting.

Soldiers get even worse hit rates, since their ranges are greater, and there are more people shooting back at them.

All I'm interested in here are survival rates from being shot. They've no reason to lie about that. And I'm not here to talk about firearms control, take your American politics elsewhere.

The point is simply that in combat people miss far, far more often than they hit with firearms, and that a surprising number of people survive gunshots, because modern medicine is awesome. And calibre etc really are not significant factors except when it comes to body armour.

Here is the most basic and realistic system for handgun combats,

Roll 1d6 for initiative.
+1 if you have extensive (2+ years) training, not just on the range.
+1 if you were lying in wait for him
+1 if there are more of you than the other guy

Roll 1d6 to hit. You hit on 6+
+0 if you've never fired in combat before
+1 if he is not shooting at you
+1 if you have extensive (2+ years) training, not just on the range
+0 at under 7 yards
- 1 at 7-14 yards, -2 at 15-21 yards, etc
-1 if he is wearing body armour.

Whoever is hit falls down and loses interest in proceedings. Go to hospital. Roll 1d6, on 1-2 you die, on 3-6 you live. Now roll 1d6 for how many months before you can return to duty - if you roll 6, roll again and add, and so on. If it's more than 12 months you retire with a disability pension.


I agree about how many people survive is surprising and find it odd people use homicide as a metric of violent crime in the USA when people survive HORRIBLE injuries all the time (largely because the USA probably has the absolute best trauma doctors in the world, with a combination of experience a wealth of wartime tested methods and 1st world medicine) because of ever advancing medical tech.

   What I find really surprising is how many people survived gunshots in the civil war era and afterwards given the medical care they often got.  I think humans are incredibly resilient, and at the same time oddly fragile.  Which is hard to present in a game sometimes, but I think your mechanics are capturing the idea violence is very dangerous, but if lucky and good you can come out alright (which also makes for a very entertaining after game story). edited to add...A story I remember reading years ago was about how "Wild Bill" got his reputation cemented in the west.  He was in a gunfight with several men in a bar (I think 3 but memory is imperfect) and was shot several times and survived.  All three of the other men died, because Bill only shot for the head or the heart, and even under duress didnt miss.  He used a .36 navy, which was considered a pea caliber, but Bill liked it because he was accurate with it, and had balls of carbon steel. 

Kyle Aaron

#67
My Conflict rules are more complex than that, since they must cover more than "cop meets suspect who is keen to die" scenarios, and the odds are slightly more generous than reality, since when I squished things to make a d6,d6 chart with unarmoured, armour vs frag and armour vs firearm columns, and when I made the first aid and physician rules to fit a 2d6 resolution mechanic, at each step I had to round odds up or down to fit the scale, and I rounded the death odds down in each case.

Nonetheless it's fairly deadly, though as I said less deadly than being a 1st level AD&D1e character. In both cases the player's choices can alter things.

An interesting video came out recently. It was an attempted heist (nobody in the video is physically harmed, though there is some profanity) on an armoured cash vehicle, which was foiled not by gunfire, but by aggressive driving from the driver. The driver is in fact a former police officer who instruct other police; his partner's name and experience has not been made public, but he is obviously younger and less experienced.

As the video goes on, you can see that he is obviously experienced and competent, nonetheless he becomes more erratic and agitated as his adrenaline builds up. He would be experiencing numbness, deafness, altered perception of distance etc - and tunnel vision. This explains his running the vehicle off the road and getting it stuck. His sidekick doesn't get amped up because he's obviously less experienced and doesn't know what to do - but he does exactly what he should do in this situation, which is not to bother the more experienced guy, and to do exactly what that guy tells him.

With a stuck vehicle, the driver gets out at the end ready to make a "last stand" - but the robbers had given up and fucked off. The driver was thus following the classic AD&D1e PHB advice: "Avoid unnecessary encounters."

Good life advice, really.



The Viking Hat GM
Conflict, the adventure game of modern warfare
Wastrel Wednesdays, livestream with Dungeondelver

oggsmash

Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 06, 2021, 10:46:44 AM
My Conflict rules are more complex than that, since they must cover more than "cop meets suspect who is keen to die" scenarios, and the odds are slightly more generous than reality, since when I squished things to make a d6,d6 chart with unarmoured, armour vs frag and armour vs firearm columns, and when I made the first aid and physician rules to fit a 2d6 resolution mechanic, at each step I had to round odds up or down to fit the scale, and I rounded the death odds down in each case.

Nonetheless it's fairly deadly, those as I said less deadly than being a 1st level AD&D1e character. In both cases the player's choices can alter things.

An interesting video came out recently. It was an attempted heist (nobody in the video is physically harmed, though there is some profanity) on an armoured cash vehicle, which was foiled not by gunfire, but by aggressive driving from the driver. The driver is in fact a former police officer who instruct other police; his partner's name and experience has not been made public, but he is obviously younger and less experienced.

As the video goes on, you can see that he is obviously experienced and competent, nonetheless he becomes more erratic and agitated as his adrenaline builds up. He would be experiencing numbness, deafness, altered perception of distance etc - and tunnel vision. This explains his running the vehicle off the road and getting it stuck. His sidekick doesn't get amped up because he's obviously less experienced and doesn't know what to do - but he does exactly what he should do in this situation, which is not to bother the more experienced guy, and to do exactly what that guy tells him.

With a stuck vehicle, the driver gets out at the end ready to make a "last stand" - but the robbers had given up and fucked off. The driver was thus following the classic AD&D1e PHB advice: "Avoid unnecessary encounters."



   I watched that last week, and it looked to me like the younger guy was doing all he could to control his breathing to not have a panic attack (which is natural).   The driver was a damned boss.  I would also say the version of "pull over" the hijackers used was pretty cold blooded (just opening up fire) in that they seemed to just be willing to murder the guys right off the bat.   I do not think the driver got out to make a last stand, I think he got out to take cover with his bullet proof van and kill the poor idiots who thought they were robbing a 7-11.  But I think the balls he showed stand up regardless of what was on his mind when he hopped out to meet his or their fates.

Ghostmaker

Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 06, 2021, 10:46:44 AM
My Conflict rules are more complex than that, since they must cover more than "cop meets suspect who is keen to die" scenarios, and the odds are slightly more generous than reality, since when I squished things to make a d6,d6 chart with unarmoured, armour vs frag and armour vs firearm columns, and when I made the first aid and physician rules to fit a 2d6 resolution mechanic, at each step I had to round odds up or down to fit the scale, and I rounded the death odds down in each case.

Nonetheless it's fairly deadly, though as I said less deadly than being a 1st level AD&D1e character. In both cases the player's choices can alter things.

An interesting video came out recently. It was an attempted heist (nobody in the video is physically harmed, though there is some profanity) on an armoured cash vehicle, which was foiled not by gunfire, but by aggressive driving from the driver. The driver is in fact a former police officer who instruct other police; his partner's name and experience has not been made public, but he is obviously younger and less experienced.

As the video goes on, you can see that he is obviously experienced and competent, nonetheless he becomes more erratic and agitated as his adrenaline builds up. He would be experiencing numbness, deafness, altered perception of distance etc - and tunnel vision. This explains his running the vehicle off the road and getting it stuck. His sidekick doesn't get amped up because he's obviously less experienced and doesn't know what to do - but he does exactly what he should do in this situation, which is not to bother the more experienced guy, and to do exactly what that guy tells him.

With a stuck vehicle, the driver gets out at the end ready to make a "last stand" - but the robbers had given up and fucked off. The driver was thus following the classic AD&D1e PHB advice: "Avoid unnecessary encounters."

Good life advice, really.


I saw that elsewhere.

My buttocks are still clenched so tight you couldn't hammer a straightpin up my ass with a sledgehammer. Jesus. Full credit to those guys.

Kyle Aaron

One improvement the company could make. The first is to have CB radios, so they can simply pick it up, press transmit, and check in or ask for backup - that was "call Josh and Robbie, see where they are" - asking for backup. That's quicker than picking up a mobile phone, scrolling through to get the number, etc. As well, CB can be used while still looking around, whereas the phone requires you look down while dialling. And a CB can have speakers so that both people in the vehicle can hear the conversation, or one can handle the handset while the other one talks. This isn't a huge difference, perhaps as much as a minute, but a minute can be a big difference in a situation like this.

The jackers could have improved their tactics, too. Firing at a vehicle from behind or the side is not going to make it stop - you need to block their front, the direction they're going in. One vehicle in front, one on the side, box them in. You also want to minimise shooting; if the target knows they're dead no matter what, they might take some of you with them. If they know you want the gear and not them, they may give up the gear.

Notice that the exact calibre etc of the weapons involved wasn't an issue here - only whether they were able to penetrate the armoured vehicle, which being smallarms they weren't. The driver told his partner to take the rifle not because of calibre or muzzle velocity, but because it has a larger magazine than the pistol, has a more rapid rate of fire (and so could suppress them until help arrives), is more accurate, and has a better chance of penetrating the jackers' vehicle, or body armour if any.
The Viking Hat GM
Conflict, the adventure game of modern warfare
Wastrel Wednesdays, livestream with Dungeondelver

Kyle Aaron

#71
This article gives more information, including a brief outward-facing dashcam in the vehicle.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/armored-truck-heist-video-explained/

What's been interesting for me about this incident is that I hadn't realised the world had so many special forces ninja commando experts out there who could tell us what the guys did wrong. We're privileged to have these YouTube commenters with us.

In particular, they've attacked the partner, who did nothing wrong at all. Notice he handles his weapons safely, with trigger discipline etc, and doesn't panic, doesn't fill the air with stupid questions, just waits to be told what to do. He's obviously less experienced, but he does have some training, and he's smart.
The Viking Hat GM
Conflict, the adventure game of modern warfare
Wastrel Wednesdays, livestream with Dungeondelver

Ghostmaker

Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 07, 2021, 05:06:26 AM
This article gives more information, including a brief outward-facing dashcam in the vehicle.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/armored-truck-heist-video-explained/

What's been interesting for me about this incident is that I hadn't realised the world had so many special forces ninja commando experts out there who could tell us what the guys did wrong. We're privileged to have these YouTube commenters with us.

In particular, they've attacked the partner, who did nothing wrong at all. Notice he handles his weapons safely, with trigger discipline etc, and doesn't panic, doesn't fill the air with stupid questions, just waits to be told what to do. He's obviously less experienced, but he does have some training, and he's smart.
What, you've never encountered Chairborne Rangers online, Kyle? They ALWAYS crawl outta the woodwork when something like this pops up.

Me, I will just say 'Any encounter like that where you can walk away is one where you won' and leave it at that :)

SHARK

Quote from: Ghostmaker on May 07, 2021, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: Kyle Aaron on May 07, 2021, 05:06:26 AM
This article gives more information, including a brief outward-facing dashcam in the vehicle.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/armored-truck-heist-video-explained/

What's been interesting for me about this incident is that I hadn't realised the world had so many special forces ninja commando experts out there who could tell us what the guys did wrong. We're privileged to have these YouTube commenters with us.

In particular, they've attacked the partner, who did nothing wrong at all. Notice he handles his weapons safely, with trigger discipline etc, and doesn't panic, doesn't fill the air with stupid questions, just waits to be told what to do. He's obviously less experienced, but he does have some training, and he's smart.
What, you've never encountered Chairborne Rangers online, Kyle? They ALWAYS crawl outta the woodwork when something like this pops up.

Me, I will just say 'Any encounter like that where you can walk away is one where you won' and leave it at that :)

Greetings!

Indeed, the armoured Security Guards performed their duties very well. I'm not sure what the "arm-chair Commando's" somehow expect. The officers are driving in an urban, civilian environment, and are potentially outnumbered. They kept cool and calm, drove very well, and maintained the security of their vehicle, the money/goods, and their own lives. They should both receive commendations for their courage and professionalism.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the façade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security b

Kyle Aaron

There's now come out an interview with Prinsloo, which is pretty interesting. It reinforces what I said, that skills (in this case, offensive driving), experience (not panicking, being used to the adrenaline surge) and equipment (his vehicle, and the attackers' scrambler obscuring comms) are more important than things like firearms calibre.

I also found interesting:

QuoteThe driver of the car jumped out and ran, which is when I jumped out with my rifle. I made the decision that he wasn't a shootable target in that public place. He ran across the street and got away, to my great frustration. [...]

The majority of the industry sends their guys into a war zone with the very bare minimum of training; all they want to do is tick boxes on a form. On top of that, they are getting investigated and sometimes fired after they use their weapons. So before they pull their gun for protection, they are wondering if they will lose their job. That kind of hesitation can be the difference between life or death.

Which is to say that for the professional, the decision whether to fire is even more important than how good a shot they are, or their kind of weapon, etc. And that, of course, is part of roleplaying.

Roleplaying games should offer choices, and occasionally the choices should be difficult ones with no "right" answer. For example on the weekend we played a session of Conflict and the party became aware of insurgents planning a truck bomb in the market the next day - but if they stopped it, they might reveal they'd broken the insurgents' code, which would make them change their system, and they'd miss insurgent comms later. Stop it and hurt your ability to stop things in future, or let it happen and dozens of people die? There's no wrong or right answer.
The Viking Hat GM
Conflict, the adventure game of modern warfare
Wastrel Wednesdays, livestream with Dungeondelver