File #002 - The Collapse (Annotated)

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Social Order, cntd.

> Of all the cities in North America, Los Angeles suffered the worst. After its water and power cut out, returning it to desert, the majority of the city headed elsewhere. Fires, set by rioters, burned the city down, turning the LA basin into five hundred square miles of charred ruins. LA refugees suffered over 90% casualties from causes like the Great Angelino Fire, dehydration, heat stroke, starvation, disease, and banditry.

Today, it’s a small city of 55,000, Nuevo Angeles, clustered around the NA California Coast Guard Base (formerly the Port of Los Angeles). An unknown number of squatters occupy surviving buildings in the rest of the city, but California lacks the resources to police or Reclaim it. “Charred Angeles” is a Barrens, like Redmond in Seattle, only with far fewer occupants.
- Sou-Wester

Displaced citizens were the most challenging aspect of Reclamation. The military lacked the capacity to set up camps to house tens of millions of refugees. Eventually, military units began reclaiming abandoned suburbs (driving off criminal and vigilante gangs), ringing them with fencing, setting up aid camps there. People could move into permanent housing, not tents, with water and heat (and intermittent power), and receive the bare essentials of food. Those agreeing to work in various Reclamation or EMSAP projects received ration coupons for additional food, power, and even fuel.

Conclusion

These, then were the challenges of Reclamation: a populace ravaged by disease, a medical system in collapse, economic disintegration, infrastructure in disorder, and a breakdown in civil order. Local leaders held onto order as much as they could, and the overseas Redeployment provided a core of soldiers that could begin to stabilize the country, reestablish infrastructure, and restore order. Even so, Reclamation was a difficult process and, when on the verge of completion, was interrupted by the NAN War, from which the federal government has yet to recover.

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###Classified###

Demographic Effects of VITAS in the United States

Using the 2010 US Census data, I estimated rates of infections for areas of varying populations, then calculated the death toll based on the following assumptions:

• 4% of the population was resistant or immune.
• 25% of those who contracted the disease died.
• 30% of those who contracted the disease developed moderate reactions to multiple allergens (from 5-15), and half this group is effectively crippled for life.
• 45% of those who contracted the disease developed minor reactions to a few allergens, between 1 and 5.
• The more densely populated an area is, the larger a percentage of people were exposed.

In table form, this looks like:



This is the primary kill rates for VITAS. Secondary kill rates (due to famine, consequent infection, and the like) also vary by the size of the affected region.

In table form, this looks like:



All survivors of VITAS developed new allergies (as detailed above.)

• 37,000,000 developed crippling allergies.
• Another 37,000,000 developed multiple moderate allergies.
• 111,256,000 developed minor allergies.

These allergies last for life, and have a chance (if the afflicted is exposed to an allergen) of escalating to severe anaphylactic response. (Which can be lethal.)

Similar percentages hold for every population on the planet, indicating why hypoallergenic substances and research into allergy suppression are key industries.

Demographic Consequences

This distribution of casualties will have strong effects on the United States.

• A large percentage of Progressive Democrats live in urban areas, indeed almost all urban areas vote Democrat in presidential elections (even in "Red States"), so the high casualty rates among urban dwellers will affect the relative strength of the political parties.

One possible consequence of this: Assuming the Republican party emerges dominant, there will likely be a split between Conservatives and Libertarians. The Republicans could emerge as the "party of Big Government" as they try and reverse defederalization.

Progressives would be a smaller third party, much like modern Libertarians, with a great deal of influence as swing voters. On government issues, such as taxation, they may side with Conservatives, on Social issues, such as gay marriage, they could side with the Libertarians. Other outcomes are possible, of course.

With the increased religiosity common after VITAS, a religious populist party could arise. This kind of party would be a return to the politics of the late 1800's (Social Religion), and doesn't fit into the Right-Left paradigm of current US politics.

With defederalization, different mixes of parties could predominate in different regions. In California, Libertarians and Progressives could dominate, and would be bitter enemies. In New England and the Golden Triangle (NY, PA, NJ), Populists and Progressives are the dominant parties. In the Midwest and South, Republicans and Populists. In Texas, Libertarians and Republicans.

The national Congress would be split between the four parties, with none having a majority. This deadlock could be another reason for the weakness of the Federal government.

• Races and ethnicities are not evenly distributed across regions of varying size. I have yet to do the research on this, so I can't draw any conclusions as yet.

• Differing Socio-Economic Status groups are not evenly distributed. The poorest and wealthiest Americans tend to concentrate in cities (ignoring outliers, like Appalachia). Both groups will be reduced in size, relative to the Middle Class.

(Though this is not a permanent effect. The Collapse impoverishes most of the wealthy, and the Long Depression much of the Middle Class. In 2032, about half the population lives below the poverty line.)

In other words, because of its unique characteristics, VITAS will have an effect on ethnic composition, poverty rates, political identification, and other areas of public life. Figuring these out makes the setting more unique (highlighting the sci-fi aspects) and more plausible (as technothrillers must be).