I don't know when 4e will be replaced with a new version of D&D (although I would bet on 2-4 years), but the marketing direction behind Essentials has given me an idea of how it will end.  So here are my predictions (feel free to come up with your own):

• 3rd, 4th, and Essentials have all been driven by customer complaints.  3rd was driven by complaints that D&D wasn't "modern" and wasn't GURPS (that there wasn't enough customization), 4th was driven by complaints that 3rd wasn't balanced, and Essentials looks like it was driven by complaints about 4th not feeling much like D&D.  I would expect the next edition to look much more like 3rd/AD&D, and I expect miniatures to return to being optional to handle "it feels like a boardgame" complaints.
• 5th edition will not be called 5th edition.  It will probably be called something like "D&D Classic" instead.
• 5th edition will not be marketed as a new edition.  Instead it will be marketed as an alternative form of D&D that is supposed to co-exist alongside 4e (much like the old D&D-AD&D split).
• After the release of 5th edition 4e will continue to receive nominal digital support in the form of new feats and what-not being pushed out through DDI.  In fact this will probably be announced as a good thing for 4e fans.  This will help bolster the illusion that the new edition is not replacing the old edition and it will help WotC keep making subscription money off a game they are no longer publishing.

Hmm. Maybe. Maybe not. Thing is, if you're going to still have casual updates for 4e DDI, you still need people to spend time on those. Either you keep some people in house spending their work time on those, which is pretty much at loss for the company (since you either don't earn significant cash on this work or split your audience between DDI and Classic, neither of which seems to be a good thing from a business plan point of view), or you get fans to write and put stuff on DDI, in which case it's like giving up on the "Official" stamp on DDI, much like what's going on progressively with adventures for RPGA.

I guess I have a hard time seeing how having a D&D Classic along with 4e DDI updates would make any sense... unless of course D&D Classic was somehow compatible with 4e itself...

Heh. Wait a minute!

How much effort does it really take to churn out a small handful of feats and items a month.  5-10 hrs?  That's all it would take for the illusion of "support".

Well, whenever it happens, I plan to harvest many a cheap ass used book from Amazon.

It will end in Flames.

RPGPundit

What will happen to Abyssal Maw?

Quote from: Fiasco;398490What will happen to Abyssal Maw?

He will tout 5e as TheGreatestGameEvar, and relentlessly mock anyone clinging onto 4e as not being "mainstream"?

Not with a bang but a whimper.

Quote from: 837204563;398462How much effort does it really take to churn out a small handful of feats and items a month.  5-10 hrs?  That's all it would take for the illusion of "support".

They could have the designers cranking them out in the last few months of the edition's life and stockpile them, releasing them in a steady trickle for years afterwards.

Quote from: RPGPundit;398487It will end in Flames.

RPGPundit

...or :


"In Fire"

So this means Pundit is Kosh or Kosh is the Pundit.


- Ed C.

We are all Kosh.

Quote from: Fiasco;398490What will happen to Abyssal Maw?

Something resembling this?

The avalanche has begun - it is too late for the pebbles to vote.

Oh man.

When 4E Ends I'll change my blog name to "RPG Blog III" and do a lot of boo hooing about the way things were. Then I'll studiously go from site to site and try to write little troll comments to enrage and discourage current gamers (and especially discourage new gamers) while secretly wishing I could game again. I'll hit the Amazon reviews for whatever the next version is and do a number on them, cycling between rage, smugness, and despair. Then I'll throw my support behind the first company that looks like it's going to create a cheap knock-off and relentlessly pimp them at every opportunity. All the while.. I'll know that there's something missing.

And then I'll go out and seek out people who are having fun with whatever the new version is and do my best get rid of them, because I'm sure the self-loathing and sociopathy will have fully kicked in by then.

I learned from the best!

theRPGsite will begin to obsess about the print runs of 5E, and will have 57-page threads about relatively small changes to the game populated mostly by people who claim not to care about the game.

WotC will not call 5E a new edition, and there will be a massive flame war here about whether it REALLY is a new edition, replete with name-calling and massive displays of message-board posturing.