Jim Bob: doesn't Palladium still make Recon? (like 2E revised but still around)
I also believe that FTL:2448, is still technically produced (I could be wrong there, I know Tri Tac was still flogging there games a few years ago)

Now popular? Maybe not--still published and around?

Quote from: J ArcaneBull goddamn shit.  With the explosions in digital distribution, small press, and print-on-demand there have been in the last half decade more new games coming out than there were in the whole ten years prior to that.

I was talking about new gamers, not new games.

But just so you know, the explosion of small-press games actually doesn't mean much. It just means there are hundreds of inconsequential games selling (when they are very lucky) in the three digits and being played by probably 10% of that number.

It's going to be around for a long time and God bless them. However, the "Forge cred boost" is probably going to disappear in about a year or two. So I expect a little less in performances pretty soon.

Think about it. Even the "cultest" of those games, such as Sorcerer, which has been around a long time, aren't even on the radar. Absolutely none of the "indie" games is even reaching a Deadland-level of appeal and success. Which was, all things considered, a cute but insufficient success.

Think what you will, but the decline of 2nd tier companies (at least as far as RPG productions) is a sign that things are seriously not going well in this industry.

Quote from: J ArcaneCome on, I barely keep up with this shit anymore and I know these things.

Do you, really? Allow me to be skeptical.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou have to be seriously out of touch to believe the shit you're spouting.  Either that or you just really, really want to believe your own hobby is dying.

I'm just curious as to why.  Did your game fail?  Your store close down?  Or are you one of those "Last of the Mohicans" types enamored of the fantasy of being the last of a dying breed?

False on all accounts. I'm in touch with the hobby in many ways. I did not release any games, never operated a store (although I do talk with people who have operated a successful hobby store for over two decades), nor would I be "proud" to be one of a dying breed. I'd very much like RPGs to succeed.

I just happen to believe based on anecdotal evidence, release schedules of various companies and numerous industry pros that things are not doing well on a general level. I don't think it's the end of the world or anything. I don't have any stakes in this. I'm not claiming roleplaying is going to be wiped out completely in 5 years or anything. I just believe, like many insiders, that this industry is slowly declining.

You keep hrping on that Mongoose thing like it's the only example of a new company in the RPG market of the last 7 years.  

I'm starting to regret using it, because you seem to want to pretend it's the only example out there.

Mongoose, FFG (and don't tell me they're ditching RPGs when they've got a big new franchise brewing with the US printing of Anima), Sovereign Stone, Privateer Press, Green Ronin, Fanpro, all companies that have risen to prominence since the turn of the millenium.  

Yeah.  There's no new players in the industry.  None at all.  :rolleyes:

Quote from: Caesar SlaadI see the predictions individually as "plausible, but not certain". Perhaps as many as half might come true, which would be a good track record, all things considered.

I find the talk of further collapse of the distribution chain interesting. I sort of consider the existing distribution chain antiquated, and think that a shallower chain with more reliance on direct connections between publisher and retailer would, in the end, give the industry a shot in the arm.

It's beyond antiquated.

It's a dinosaur, but worse, it's a cannibal dinosaur that kills companies on a regular basis.

Notice Dancey didn't just say another distributor would collapse... he said it would take a company with it.

We almost saw this when Osseum went under.

Quote from: J ArcaneI think you are right.  And Dancey touches on the effects of it but, perhaps due to his employer, doesn't go into the causes of it.

A lot of hobby stores jumped on the various CCG mandwagons with great gusto, in some cases even to the extent of driving away their non-CCG customers because they perceived them as of lesser value compared to CCGs.

Then the kids get bored, the fad bombs, and the retailer is now stuck with shit-tons of worthless merchandise no one wants, and they've driven away the customers for their other products, so now they're basically fucked.

Even the great Magic the Gathering doesn't exactly sell in the same kinds of numbers it used to, and it's definitely shifted focus to a more hardcore crowd.  Pokemon is old news, YuGiOh is old news, DuelMasters was too transparent ever to succeed.  The new WoW game is mostly being bought by people trying to get the item cards for the MMO.

What you also can't forget in the scenario you post above are the distributors who fail to pay their smaller clients (typically mid-tier print publishers) for a "month or two" while they buy that next big thing fad item (typically a mini game or CCG).

Then when the bubble bursts, the distributor either cuts back a lot or goes under, with "a month or two" having never materialized and that mid-tier publisher being screwed out of a quarter's worth of earnings.

THAT is a scenario I have personally witnessed happen three times in my 6-7 years in the industry.

The distribution system is a big part of the problem, but distributors that have the baffling idea that paying their bills is doing you a favor, are an even bigger part of the problem.

Chuck

Let's make a few things clear:

#1: If you're not in print, then you don't mean shit.  The newspaper business has a bit of useful jargon regarding the awareness of common people, and that jargon is "...the fold."  If you're above it, then you're within the awareness of the common people; if not, you aren't and therefore you're irrelevant.  In RPGs, specifically tabletop RPGs, the fold is the bookshelf at either a game shop or a major chain bookstore like Borders.  You can be the big mack-daddy of the PDF, but if you can't get shelfspace at B&N you ain't shit.  PDF is the farm-league ghetto as far as common gamers--if they think of it at all--think of that segment.  Get in print, get on the shelf, or get the fuck out.

#2: Talk Less; Hack More.  Wanna know why the consistantly successful RPGs are all focused on either investigation or combat?  Because that's the sort of shit that gets everyone at the table on the same page and playing the damned game as a fucking team.  When you talk to NPCs, it's just one or two players and the GM sucking up time and boring the fuck out of everyone else; talking works great for LARPs, but it sucks ass for tabletop RPGs, much like all forms of hacking/decking/rigging/netrunning do, and it must be avoided.  Make a die roll, or just pass out the clues, and get on with the gameplay!

#3: Simple Games Suck Ass.  By this, I'm talking about people that bitch about actually having to learn and master a ruleset about as complex as any version of D&D.  The history of RPGs that don't require this of players is that they fail as commercial products, and they often fail as fun games--usually because they require too much talking and not enough playing--because they have nothing to keep players coming back for more.  You see this reflected in console, PC and MMORPGs as well; rules mastery and player skill are vitally important to the success--long and short term--of any RPG, and to say that they aren't is to reveal yourself as being fucking retarded.

Okay, what the fuck does the above shit have to do with this thread?  These are the things that play big-fucking-time into the generation-long-ownage of D&D in the TRPG (fuck, in the RPG!) world as well as similiar games like CoC (only investigation-based RPG that works), GURPS, HERO, Traveller, etc.- all complex, action-oriented, team-oriented games that require player skill and rules mastery from those that play them.  They're on the shelves!  They're in print!  You can find them in major chains, and they all have user networks that are damn-near ubiquitous in presence.  You wanna make a successful RPG?  There's a bare-bones structure to start with in terms of where to go and what to do.

Quote from: JimBobOzThis is nothing new. I remember Aussie games, for example, Rus

As a side note, I actually own a copy of Rus and a copy of an adventure made for the game. Picked it up at a game shop in Ohio, where I'm from originally. I thought it was interesting simply due to the subject matter - an RPG based on Russian folklore and legends. Beyond that, it seemed really lackluster to me.

Quote from: Consonant DudeSorry if I wasn't clear. I am concerned about great games that have a strong fanbase that is ready, willing and able to buy new stuff.

How big is a "strong fanbase"? For about twenty years people were begging for Tekumel stuff, but nothing came. Harn fans would buy ten books a month if the owners could get their shit together and publish more than once every four years. If they re-released Star Frontiers, people would buy it - but not, you know, millions of people. How many sales do they need before you'll count it as a "strong fanbase"?

Does it just mean, "people are willing to buy it"? I refer again to Star Frontiers - I wouldn't call that a terribly strong line, though.

My suspicion is that when you say, "strong fanbase", you're speaking very subjectively. Subjectivity's a dodgy thing, it leads to people thinking that Sorcerer is more popular than D&D, and crazy shit like that. Not that you think that, but you know what I mean.

Quote from: Consonant DudeWhat I am seeing less since Vampire are brands and companies actually having a real impact.

What is "a real impact"? Sounds like something that'd take a while to build up, yeah? If you're just talking about games released since 2000, well, these guys have only had five years to build themselves up. Other guys have had decades.

Quote from: Consonant DudeMaybe an argument can be made for PEG and a few others but they seem always on the edge.

Mate, most companies are "on the edge". Shit, TSR managed to collapse. They were the closest rpgs ever came to a monopoly, and they still fucked it up - that takes special effort!

Quote from: Consonant DudeWhat we are seeing is always the same brands and companies. White Wolf, WotC, Palladium, Warhammer, D&D, CoC, etc...

I don't think so. There are over 120 different companies at RPGNow.com, for example. But of course, you'll say that they have no "strong fanbase" and no "real impact." While leaving these nice and vague...

Quote from: Consonant DudeSure, companies were dying all the time back in the days... but some were emerging as leaders every once in a while. Why are we seeing less of that? Product lines are getting shorter and shorter too.

We're seeing that? They are?

You've got John Kim's Bigass List of Games - and game companies. Do the research - prove it. Prove that product lines are getting shorter, and companies have a shorter life than they used to.

Quote from: JimBobOzYes, they know very well what's happening. That's why big companies like Enron never collapse, because business people are always right. They are so much smarter than us!

Enron was people stealing money.  That doesn't mean accounting / business forecasts don't exist or have value.

An industry slowdown doesn't mean the death of the industry.  It sometimes just means more opportunity for something new to come along and shake things up.

Firstly, the industry and the hobby are not necessarily the same thing, nor is there necessarily one industry.

I mean, the guys putting out pdfs are not meaningfully in competition with White Wolf or Mongoose or whoever, their sales just aren't big enough.

And though I disagree with Bradford on the talking issue (it's what I actually play for), he makes several solid points.  Either you're above the fold or you ain't, and the guys above the fold are hurting.  The distributors are struggling and the whole business model for the print based rpg scene is in trouble.  JimBob helpfully quoted some predictions from the late 1990s that I think were actually not too badly off, although I appreciate that's not why he posted them.

There is a long term decline, numbers of gamers are not being regenerated on a 1 for 1 basis or better yet on a growth basis.  That doesn't mean people aren't still playing, but fewer are and the thing is many folk who play don't buy.  Either because one copy works for a whole group or because their group is happy with their DnD game (or whatever) and feels no need of new product.

I see the future as similar to wargaming, it's still about, still an active hobby but sales are online and as best I can tell on the trad and miniatures sides of things (as opposed to the more board gamey wargames) the only designers left are hobbyists with some free time.  

It's a future I'm actually fairly ok with, but then I don't have money or personal esteem locked in to the current business model continuing.

And the thing with declines, they're generally gradual.  It's not like we'll wake up one morning and all the big boys will have vanished, it will be slower and more erosive than that.  But already we are seeing it around us and frankly have been now for some years.

As someone said up thread, better grab that long tail because that's our future as an industry.  As a hobby, we're like miniatures wargaming, we'll be around a long time yet but nobody will be making more than pocket money from it.

And as for CCGs, I thought it was widely accepted that helped hasten the trend, though I think the trend is innate to the nature of the hobby.  Any hobby where one book purchase can keep you entertained for years is never going to be that financially robust.

Quote from: StuartEnron was people stealing money.  That doesn't mean accounting / business forecasts don't exist or have value.

An industry slowdown doesn't mean the death of the industry.  It sometimes just means more opportunity for something new to come along and shake things up.

Also, until the actual collapse almost everyone who would normally blow the whistle on that sort of thing was making tons of money from Enron, certainly the banks, lawyers and accountants were.

That said, although businesses depend on forecasting the future it is a notoriously unreliable thing to do.

Oh, and I really don't get contempt from that Mike Mearls piece.  Quasi-affectionate industry satire more, from someone who is part of it.

Mike Mearls is, IMO, too smart a guy to stay in an industry he doesn't like.  The fact he's still here suggests to me he has some fondness for gaming and gamers yet.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou keep hrping on that Mongoose thing like it's the only example of a new company in the RPG market of the last 7 years.  

I'm starting to regret using it, because you seem to want to pretend it's the only example out there.

Mongoose, FFG (and don't tell me they're ditching RPGs when they've got a big new franchise brewing with the US printing of Anima), Sovereign Stone, Privateer Press, Green Ronin, Fanpro, all companies that have risen to prominence since the turn of the millenium.  

Yeah.  There's no new players in the industry.  None at all.  :rolleyes:

Privateer Press is a huge company... making all their money and impact in miniatures. The IK roleplaying line (which I really like) is inconsequential and almost dead. PP are prioritizing pretty much everything else. Ik is still a valuable IP but not in the world of roleplaying. At least, not so far.

Sovereign Stone? If you mean, Sovereign Press, you're talking about a company that had a string of failures and now pretty much exclusively deals in Dragonlance material. That's a really, really old IP from the 80s.

Same thing with Fanpro. This company is riding a couple of old properties. Like Shadowrun (1989) and the even older "Dark Eye" (1983), which still struggles in North America.

I'll be curious to see what happens with Anima but seriously, if anything, that indicates the poor state of the hobby. FFG was originally supposed to release it in September 2005. Then there were a series of delay (the latest was supposed to be November 2006, which has now been bumped to March 2007). The RPG doesn't appear to be such a hit in Spain and it appears the IP will ride hard on card games, minis, etc...

Out of all of those, Green Ronin is the only company that has a huge focus on games that are both "new IPs" and "RPGs". Which is a good thing. But Green Ronin is still small. They've just killed the horrible Blue Rose and the flagship product is M&M. I'm skeptical that it will have a huge commercial influence in the long run but let's give this one a chance. I was just listening to Chris Pramas on a podcast (2d6feet, you can find the interview on the net) and what he has to say about the state of the industry
is not really great.

So yeah, not really impressed by any of those on a roleplaying level. Privateer Press is indeed becoming a major player in hobby games. Just not roleplaying games. The rest of the valuable IPs (like Shadowrun) are still the same, sometimes in different hands.

For those still in an amusing state of denial, here's one more source for you:

Kenneth Hite in his yearly "State Of The Industry Column". He does it every March and the latest (March 2006) is in some respect even more pssimistic than Ryan. He claims the number of stores could be between 800 and 1500 as of start of 06. Numbers in all hobby segments were down in 2005 and roleplaying games were also hit as usual. .pdf sales are mostly getting important for lack of a better option.

Read more: http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=viewarticle&artid=186

I have no reason to believe that Kenneth or any of his sources have any agenda. Once again, the collected data is far from exhaustive and scientific but does point out toward decline.