Dancey's gonna hit more than he misses, with a few delayed by a couple of years, and the folks that hate him will bitch like no tomorrow when he gets the right hits at the right times- again.

Quotei'm still of the opinion that you can look back at the CCG craze as the beginning of the decline of role-playing games...but that's just me.

I think you are right.  And Dancey touches on the effects of it but, perhaps due to his employer, doesn't go into the causes of it.

A lot of hobby stores jumped on the various CCG mandwagons with great gusto, in some cases even to the extent of driving away their non-CCG customers because they perceived them as of lesser value compared to CCGs.

Then the kids get bored, the fad bombs, and the retailer is now stuck with shit-tons of worthless merchandise no one wants, and they've driven away the customers for their other products, so now they're basically fucked.

Even the great Magic the Gathering doesn't exactly sell in the same kinds of numbers it used to, and it's definitely shifted focus to a more hardcore crowd.  Pokemon is old news, YuGiOh is old news, DuelMasters was too transparent ever to succeed.  The new WoW game is mostly being bought by people trying to get the item cards for the MMO.

Quote from: Levi KornelsenYep.

Which brings us ever closer to the point where most game creators need to pray for the long tail.

I'm glad somebody brought up the long tail, because (IMO) that will be the endgame economy for this hobby, and I think those who adapt to it fastest will continue on. I'm pretty sure there will always be someone tossing dice, but the way they get their books and the way those books will get out will have no real comparison to the distribution and publication models we have now.

Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerDancey's gonna hit more than he misses, with a few delayed by a couple of years, and the folks that hate him will bitch like no tomorrow when he gets the right hits at the right times- again.

*Shrug*

None of his predictions affect how I actually play.  So, if he's right, then whoop-de-do.  If not, whatever.

Quote from: JamesVI'm glad somebody brought up the long tail, because (IMO) that will be the endgame economy for this hobby, and I think those who adapt to it fastest will continue on. I'm pretty sure there will always be someone tossing dice, but the way they get their books and the way those books will get out will have no real comparison to the distribution and publication models we have now.

I make an exception for D&D, myself, but generally, yeah.

Several people are confused by Dancey's use of the word "platform". Note:

Quote from: DanceyBy "platform" I mean a type of game that is disinct, like RPGs are distinct from collectible card games, which are distinct from miniatures games.  Typically, a platform is a combination of a style of play, a type of component, and a sales & marketing engine.

He put up this clarification in responce to Viktor Haag, who thought he was talking about using computers or iPhones.

Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerDancey's gonna hit more than he misses, with a few delayed by a couple of years, and the folks that hate him will bitch like no tomorrow when he gets the right hits at the right times- again.

Again?  That implies, wrongly, that he's ever gotten the right hits at the right times before now.  Ryan Dancey is proof positive of the adage that even a broken clock is right twice a day... and being right twice a day doesn't make the clock any less broken.

KoOS

For what it's worth, Wizkids have just announced they're going exclusive with Alliance Distribution. This may result in a decrease in profit for other distributors, from what I'm picking up on industry chit-chat. It could merely be a blip or it could be the precourser to distribution consolidation.

joe b.

Boutique publishers with broken business plans and shrinking customer bases are in for a hard year?

Hell's Bells, Martha!  Storm's a comin'!

Dancey's really sped up his timetable, as said above.  I think he did this to get more tongues wagging, which seems to have worked.

The business will continue to shrink but gaming will persevere.  To paraphrase AJ Liebling: Roleplaying, like making love, is an art of the people.  It will endure.

Quote from: Ryan DanceySecond, I'll define "a hobby game store" as a store that generates at least a third of its gross revenue from the sale of hobby game products or products designed to support hobby games.

The other revenue is often 1/3 comics and 1/3 collectibles.

Comics isn't a booming industry either right now, and many stores aren't able to adapt to changing consumer demand (eg. Teens go to the big bookstores to get their Manga).

Where is Ryan Dancey working now?

His buddy Mike Mearls has nothing but contempt for games and gamers.

Something about being a game designer seems to turn people into gamer-haters, and also into doom-sayers.

"Today, the best estimate that Luke & I can arrive at is that there are between 1,000 and 1,500 hobby game stores left."

That's quite a range of uncertainty. I think that's deliberate - that way, next year, whatever the figures turn out to be, he can claim he was right. Suppose there's a terrible 20% decline in game sales, and a corresponding 20% closing of game stores - that'd be 300 of 1,500, or 200 or 1,000. Both fall within that same range. So if next year there are still "between 1,000 and 1,500" game stores left, he can say, "look, there's been a 20% decline!"

I think the doom-sayers took lessons from Nostradamus - if you keep your predictions vague enough, then whatever happens you can claim you were right.

Here's my prediction: next year, Mike Mearls will say there's now between 1,000 and 1,500 game stores, and this proves he was right about the decline.

The decline and fall of roleplaying is like the decline and fall of the Roman Empire - predicted long before it actually happened, and it took centuries to happen. Roleplaying was dying when the religious loons attacked. Then it was dying because of computer games. Then it was dying again when CCGs popped up. Then computer games were killing it again. Then it was dying when WoW and all that crap popped up. It's been dying for thirty years.

DOOM!

Ryan Dancey is full of shit. Remember, this is the guy...
Dancey: "Roleplaying is twenty minutes of fun packed into four hours!"
JimBobOz: "Maybe when you're running the game, yes."

Quote from: JimBobOzThe decline and fall of roleplaying is like the decline and fall of the Roman Empire - predicted long before it actually happened, and it took centuries to happen. Roleplaying was dying when the religious loons attacked. Then it was dying because of computer games. Then it was dying again when CCGs popped up. Then computer games were killing it again. Then it was dying when WoW and all that crap popped up. It's been dying for thirty years.

You can brush it off all you want but there are more and more companies struggling, less and less stores and the general strategy among publishers is to target older gamers with crappy, fluffy deluxe products with a total disregard for bringing new blood. John Nephew was one of the first to give up on this hobby and proclaim all that could be done at that point (around 2001) was to raise the prices and milk the declining fanbase as long as possible. Many others have unfortunately followed that philosophy.

Almost all the top selling popular games are not old, they're ancient. D&D, Warhammer, CoC, Hero, GURPS, etc... heck, even the successful licenses usually are those that appeal to older gamers, such as Star Wars and Conan.

The hobby is becoming a lot more centralized, which skews the views of some people who think things are all well and good.

The hobby is declining. Right now. It's been declining for a while and will continue to do so. Just because we can still game doesn't mean it's not happening. It's wishful thinking to not see it.

Also, I think it's a bit weird to pretend there is some agenda behind Dancey's words. I don't see any reason why the guy would have a stake in pretending to think this hobby is struggling.

Lastly, I think you're completely wrong when you say Dancey is deliberately vague. If anything, those are very bold predictions. Bolder than the rest of this industry which, BTW, many members recognize this hobby is in decline. From firsthand experience.

I think it's funny that a lot of people who actually work or have worked in this industry can recognize things are not going well right now instead of reciting some lame PR and it's the fans who are sticking their fingers in their ears pretending things are fine. Usually, it's the other way around.

Something that people are going to realize very soon is that the backbone of this hobby right now is nostalgia. It's the guys who started roleplaying in the 70s and 80s before the explosion of other media. There has been a lack of player retention ever since then. It's inevitable that the end will be coming barring some spectacular turn of event. Heck, we're already seeing and feeling the effects right now.

The big failing of this industry is that unlike, say, the music industry, they aren't fishing for new things and instead rely on old stuff and techniques. You can't solely rely on selling Beatles records forever, no matter how much of a classic the band is. You have to develop new products and new markets, even if many of them will end up not being profitable. Unfortunately, the roleplaying industry being small and not very well organized at the time, they never did that very well.

Quote from: kregmosierI can tell you right now what would get me out of the hobby lickety-split is adding a bunch of computerized-bullshit to tabletop role-playing games.

if i wanted that, i'da kept Milton Bradley's Dark Tower.

no, see, i work on computers all day long.  when i game, as a relaxing hobby, i enjoy personal interaction, paper, pencils, and dice. no computers PERIOD.  anything more advanced than a calculator to me is like "hey, go play fucking World of Warcraft."*

I just don't see how having a small, handheld device that crunches numbers and stores data for more rules-robust games can be anything but an improvement. Unless one's idea of "personal interaction" is trying to look up this or that obscure rule or arguing about said rule's applicability in a given circumstance, I don't see how such a device would interfere with people interacting any more or less than paper, pencils, and dice. I don't work on computers all day, most people I know don't either, and using a handheld device seems just as conducive to gaming enjoyment, and therefore just as satisfying, as rolling dice or scribbling on paper. I'm also no fan of computer gaming, never have been, and have never played a game online, and the concept mentioned above had instant appeal to me.

Quote from: JimBobOzHis buddy Mike Mearls has nothing but contempt for games and gamers[url].

I'm just not getting that from the link you gave. It seems more that he has nothing but contempt for self-important, pretentious game designers. And no, this isn't some passive-aggressive dig at you. I've come to respect your opinions, just as I respect those of Mike Mearls (it'd be nice to see mearls himself chime in on this thread, by the way).

As for Dancey...well, his analyses are interesting to read, but eventually seem to get to a point where they make my eyes cross with all the financial prognostication. He did some great work with 3e and the OGL, but as a lowly gamer with no vested interest beyond my own gaming enjoyment, Ryan would have to do something more directly visible to hold my interest for long these days.

ZOMFG DOOM!!!1!!!1!

This time it really is doom! Honest.

No, really.

The most successful games are the old ones! Oh no! Sign of doom! Like, James Bond was written fifty years ago, so no-one could possibly make money by making another James Bond movie! The film industry is doomed! The most popular card game is poker, and that was invented centuries ago. Therefore the card game industry is doomed! The most popular food in Australia is pasta, and that was invented a thousand years ago, so that means the food industry is doomed!

Games have fluff, therefore they're doomed! Movies have special effects, therefore they're doomed! Food has artifical flavours and colourings, therefore the food industry is doomed!

My local game store closed, therefore the industry is doomed! There was also this jeans shop that closed, therefore the jeans industry is doomed!

Decline! Doom!

Excuse me, I'm just off to commit harakiri with a d4.