Quote from: the ultimate nullifierThere's nothing wrong with masturbation.

Pron is much better for that than fake equations that try to pretend they mean something.  

No matter the numbers plugged into any kind of equation to find the number of intelligent forms of life in the universe, as long as we aren't talking negative numbers, due to the number of stars the amount is going to be non-trivial.

If we accept that all interstellar travel must be at sub-light speed (based on our current knowledge and the amount of energy other forms of hypothetical travel would consume) trips to inhabitable planets--if they could be found--would take so long as to require a mortal danger to contemplate.

So, there are good reasons, based on our existing knowledge, why intelligent life has not covered the universe.

Besides, maybe, given a sufficient level of technology, terraforming near bodies is cheaper/safer than trying to reach distant, habitable bodies.

Quote from: CyberzombieThe Drake equation is a bunch of crap.  It's (almost) completely content-free.  (The approximate number of stars in the galaxy is the only number that isn't crap.)

The number of stars that have planetary systems: we have no fucking clue.

The number of planets capable of sustaining life: ditto.  Theoretically, there could be life in Jupiter's atmosphere.  We don't fucking know.

And that's just the first two variables.  From there, the numbers get even more retarded.  We can make some educated guesses on the above two variables, but we have NO DATA AT ALL to make any sort of educated guesses on the variables from there.

Any attempt at solving this "equation" is simply an exercise in mental masturbation.

I don't think it's the Drake equation itself. If there was any hard data to fill it in - and eventually, gradually, the data will be there - it'd be useful. As it is right now, it's almost complete speculation. Nothing really wrong with the, but when people begin basing assumptions and theories on it, the problems with it become apparent.

Quote from: ColonelHardissonI don't think it's the Drake equation itself. If there was any hard data to fill it in - and eventually, gradually, the data will be there - it'd be useful. As it is right now, it's almost complete speculation. Nothing really wrong with the, but when people begin basing assumptions and theories on it, the problems with it become apparent.

The problem is that people who come trotting out with the "equation" use it to pretend that they actually know what they're talking about.  They don't.  If even one variable was uncertian, it would be of dubious value.  Since only one variable is known with any kind of precision at all, it's just flat worthless.

Much as I love Carl Sagan and Cosmos, this stupid thing just sticks in my craw.  

Quote from: CyberzombieThe problem is that people who come trotting out with the "equation" use it to pretend that they actually know what they're talking about.  They don't.  If even one variable was uncertian, it would be of dubious value.  Since only one variable is known with any kind of precision at all, it's just flat worthless.

Much as I love Carl Sagan and Cosmos, this stupid thing just sticks in my craw.  

I'm a huge Sagan and Cosmos fan, too. I have that DVD boxed sett sitting across the room, and my hardback copy of the book sits on my shelf so I can pick it up and read from it from time to time.

I think that when Drake up with the equation, and when Sagan threw light on it in Cosmos, they didn't mean for it to become something people used to prove points. It seemed more like they were making the point that there is a hell of a lot we still need to know before we even take a guess at how common intelligent life is. As I recall, Sagan made a point to say that almost every variable that needs to be plugged into the equation is simply unknown. But the equation is there to be filled in as info becomes available. Which would be Sagan's subtle way of telling everyone to get off their asses to acquire that data.

Okay, now that is a point I can agree with.  "Go out and find the answers" is a great idea.