Quote from: Mr. GC;588324It is really. It treats you with the level of thought and respect you deserve and then moves on.

Oh, clearly.  I mean, posting my response up there a second time while you shit your pants really showed me a good one!

Quote from: Doctor Jest;588151Exactly.

If one of these jokers ever had to try to think their way out of a situation in an Old School dungeon that required actual imagination and creativity to resolve (like White Plume Mountain, frex) without being able to rely on their CCG PowerDeck character to solve the problem by merely rolling a die without having to think they'd be reduced to tears.

Since I seem to be lumped in with these 'jokers', I'd like to point out that I went through White Plume Mountain coverted to 3rd edition.  Since I wasn't the DM, I don't know how everything could have gone, but I do know that my dwarf was able to get the party past a pool of green slime with stone Platform Shoes.  

That alone was worth it.  

Quote from: Mr. GC;58828095% chance he's just making up more bullshit but in case he got a 20 I'm checking. I made it as far as the random encounter tables before bursting out laughing.

Every 10 minutes, 1:12 chance for one of the following:

1: 1 Fuck you, your gear is getting eaten, immune: most of your attacks.
2: 2-5 Fuck yous, you're getting surprised half the time.
3: 2 Fuck yous, immune: non magical weapons and high enough damage to 1-2 round the level 5 PCs it is assuming.
4: 1 Fuck you, you are almost always surprised by an invisible attacker.
5: 1-3 I'm sorry for all the fuck you monsters, come back to me so I can abuse you mores.
6: 1-2 Fuck you, lose a level forever on every hits with Immune: Non magic non silver weapons and a bunch of other stuff.

Not a single thing says anything about creativity and player skill, in fact you must have these mechanical abilities to even try is hardcoded into it.

Please realize that most of the people here think that if you run the adventure as written that you're doing it wrong.  Those 'fuck yous' are only to be used if your party is being 'uppity' or something.  A good DM knows when to be nice and reduce the challenges so the party can make it through, but later point out difficult it was.  Ribbons all around!

Quote from: deadDMwalking;588375Please realize that most of the people here think that if you run the adventure as written that you're doing it wrong.  Those 'fuck yous' are only to be used if your party is being 'uppity' or something.  A good DM knows when to be nice and reduce the challenges so the party can make it through, but later point out difficult it was.  Ribbons all around!

I know, it's like... the participation generation!

Quote from: Mr. GC;588377I know, it's like... the participation generation!

The guy who thinks that losing a point of CoN due to resurrection is complaining. Priceless

Quote from: StormBringer;588229They say absolutely moronic things like "Weighted averages are intellectually dishonest".

I meant to respond to this in my last post, but I forgot.  I saw your reference in another thread (locked now) so I figured I'd respond.  

Assuming, for a moment, that a rogue has a HD of d6, the average roll would be 3.5.  So a 2 HD thief would have 7 hit points on average.  You're right about that, and you're right when you say that if you roll d6s thousands of times and average them together, you'll get 3.5 as the average roll.  

That said, in 1d6+1d6 it is just as possible to get any single number each time you roll.  If you roll a 1 on the 1st roll, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling anything on the second.  If you happen to roll a 6 (16.67% chance) you'll average 3.5.  If you roll anything else, you won't.  That's hardly surprising, is it?  

So a weighted average can be 'dishonest' if you aren't rolling thousands of times.  If you happen to have a 2 hit point Thief at 1st level (possible with no bonus hit points for Con), you're very likely to die.  

And while a longsword against a medium opponent might deal 4.5 on average in a given combat, it may matter whether it rolls high or rolls low.  

That's why we don't substitute 'average rolls' for 'actual rolls'.  The differences from average, while over the course of the campaign appearing to approach the average, actually make the game function.  A nat 20 or a nat 1, while averaging 10.5, each affect the game very differently.  

If you ignore that fact, you're being intellectually dishonest.  

Now, there is a place for weighted averages, but if you're rolling straight dice for hit points, you have to recognize that 2d6 is 2 as often as it's 12.  Over many levels, it will probably average 3.5, but the differences from the average in the short term can be very important - and they may be the difference between having a chance and being 'guaranteed a short life'.  

Of course, we'd expect the DM to 'have pity' and allow you to either re-roll or take the average right?

Quote from: deadDMwalking;588393I meant to respond to this in my last post, but I forgot.  I saw your reference in another thread (locked now) so I figured I'd respond.  

Assuming, for a moment, that a rogue has a HD of d6, the average roll would be 3.5.  So a 2 HD thief would have 7 hit points on average.  You're right about that, and you're right when you say that if you roll d6s thousands of times and average them together, you'll get 3.5 as the average roll.  

That said, in 1d6+1d6 it is just as possible to get any single number each time you roll.  If you roll a 1 on the 1st roll, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling anything on the second.  If you happen to roll a 6 (16.67% chance) you'll average 3.5.  If you roll anything else, you won't.  That's hardly surprising, is it?  

So a weighted average can be 'dishonest' if you aren't rolling thousands of times.  If you happen to have a 2 hit point Thief at 1st level (possible with no bonus hit points for Con), you're very likely to die.  

And while a longsword against a medium opponent might deal 4.5 on average in a given combat, it may matter whether it rolls high or rolls low.  

That's why we don't substitute 'average rolls' for 'actual rolls'.  The differences from average, while over the course of the campaign appearing to approach the average, actually make the game function.  A nat 20 or a nat 1, while averaging 10.5, each affect the game very differently.  

If you ignore that fact, you're being intellectually dishonest.  

Now, there is a place for weighted averages, but if you're rolling straight dice for hit points, you have to recognize that 2d6 is 2 as often as it's 12.  Over many levels, it will probably average 3.5, but the differences from the average in the short term can be very important - and they may be the difference between having a chance and being 'guaranteed a short life'.  

Of course, we'd expect the DM to 'have pity' and allow you to either re-roll or take the average right?

See, he gets it. The reason why weighted averages are intellectually dishonest in D&D is because combat, or anything really doesn't last long enough to make anything other than individual iterations matter.

So when a level 1 thief with 6 HP falls into a 10 foot pit, he doesn't take 3.5 damage and always live. He takes 6 damage 1/6th of the time and just dies, or is out of the adventure for basically forever if you'd prefer and takes 1-5 damage and thereby survives the rest.

Also...

http://tgdmb.com/viewtopic.php?t=53702

This is for all the people talking about White Plume Mountain. I went ahead and dealt with that there so it wouldn't be drowned in idiotic responses.

Quote from: deadDMwalking;588393That said, in 1d6+1d6 it is just as possible to get any single number each time you roll.  If you roll a 1 on the 1st roll, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling anything on the second.  If you happen to roll a 6 (16.67% chance) you'll average 3.5.  If you roll anything else, you won't.  That's hardly surprising, is it?

I am assuming you haven't quite realized how probabilities work, or you wouldn't have even considered typing that first sentence.  2d6 isn't two linear rolls, no matter how you try to completely fuck up the explanation.

QuoteSo a weighted average can be 'dishonest' if you aren't rolling thousands of times.  If you happen to have a 2 hit point Thief at 1st level (possible with no bonus hit points for Con), you're very likely to die.  

No, math-failure, you don't have to roll thousands of times.  That's pretty much the point.

QuoteAnd while a longsword against a medium opponent might deal 4.5 on average in a given combat, it may matter whether it rolls high or rolls low.  

Jesus, you have no clue how math works, do you?

QuoteThat's why we don't substitute 'average rolls' for 'actual rolls'.  The differences from average, while over the course of the campaign appearing to approach the average, actually make the game function.  A nat 20 or a nat 1, while averaging 10.5, each affect the game very differently.  

Keep digging.

QuoteIf you ignore that fact, you're being intellectually dishonest.

No, if you try to weasel a bullshit explanation that flat out demonstrates you are terrible at math, that is being just plain dishonest.

QuoteNow, there is a place for weighted averages, but if you're rolling straight dice for hit points, you have to recognize that 2d6 is 2 as often as it's 12.  Over many levels, it will probably average 3.5, but the differences from the average in the short term can be very important - and they may be the difference between having a chance and being 'guaranteed a short life'.  

Holy shit you are a complete fucking moron.  Tell you what, if you want to delete your post and replace it with a picture of a kitten, I will delete this post without prejudice.

Two and twelve come up as often as each other because they are at the extremis of the bell curve. Care to guess the odds of them coming up?  You know what comes up far, far more often than either two or twelve?

Seriously, I need to start charging for this tutoring in basic stuff you people should have picked up in elementary school.  It's fucking math.  It's not interpretive like those art classes you cruised through on where you can bullshit the instructor for an A.

QuoteOf course, we'd expect the DM to 'have pity' and allow you to either re-roll or take the average right?

I would expect you to take come math classes before spouting off about probabilities.  But that is too much to ask, apparently.

My God, the ignorance and vehement defence thereof is simply breathtaking.

Quote from: StormBringer;588434I would expect you to take come math classes before spouting off about probabilities.  But that is too much to ask, apparently.

My God, the ignorance and vehement defence thereof is simply breathtaking.

Ummm.....deadDM is correct that each roll in D&D is a discrete roll.  No edition of which I am aware uses averages.  What is mathematically incorrect about that?

Quote from: Old One Eye;588440Ummm.....deadDM is correct that each roll in D&D is a discrete roll.  No edition of which I am aware uses averages.  What is mathematically incorrect about that?

Fireball damage.

Look, if you are rolling more than one die for any reason at all, it's a bell curve.  Period.  You may end up rolling second level hit points days, months or weeks later; it's still a bell curve because you are adding them.  And if you are adding them, you can figure the average.  The only way they could be discrete is if you rolled a d6 at first level, then replaced that with another d6 roll at 2nd level and used that instead.  Or if you use a d66 roll or something.  d% is actually linear, but 2d10 is not.

So, if you want to talk about Thieves, you can use the cumbersome phrase "Thieves can have either one hit point or six hit points at first level, which compares favourably with the Cleric, who can have either one hit point or eight hit points at first level."  Except, everyone already knows that because of the "dX" notation.  Rather than sit around doe-eyed at the innumerable possibilities, we just shorthand it and say "Thieves average 3.5 hit points per level, while Clerics average 4.5 hit points per level."  Which is far more useful for talking about the two classes than trying to puzzle out all the possible combinations of hit points as though math doesn't have a way to save us the time.

For any individual Thief that is actually being played?  Yeah, you obviously don't use averages unless you are curious if you are ahead of or behind the curve.  You roll each level, add Con bonus and get back to playing.  No one has suggested using averages in normal play as a routine matter.  But when you are talking about game design or aspects of play, using the averages keeps from having to enumerate every possibility for sword damage.

EDIT:  I hope this didn't come off as aggressive, I am assuming you are asking in good faith.

Quote from: Old One Eye;588440Ummm.....deadDM is correct that each roll in D&D is a discrete roll.  No edition of which I am aware uses averages.  What is mathematically incorrect about that?

Don't bother. Storm has declared himself "eternal master of math and logic" and any discussion with him will result in him flailing at you then claiming victory. Trust me I've tried to engage with him and real logic just doesn't happen in his solipsistic personal reality. The best thing to do when Storm is posting is just watch the trainwreck and try not to get involved

Quote from: Mr. GC;588404See, he gets it. The reason why weighted averages are intellectually dishonest in D&D is because combat, or anything really doesn't last long enough to make anything other than individual iterations matter.

I just wanted to drop in here and help you out:

Basic statistics (averages) are certainly applicable to D&D, just as they are to any game that uses uses dice or other randomizers. There's nothing intellectually dishonest about using the to understand the likely outcome of any die roll or set of die rolls.

Your thinking about D&D combat not 'lasting' long enough doesn't change averages or probability -- trust me on this (or, if you can't, ask your math teacher).

From your post, you clearly have a basic (correct) understanding of what an average is, but I think you may be misunderstanding how statistical thinking is applied in practice (e.g. to assess a game like D&D).

Maybe you've heard or read that statistics can be used in intellectually dishonest ways?

When people talk about using statistics to lie, they're not talking about misunderstanding the concept of what an average is -- they're talking about manipulating the underlying methodologies or assumptions used in things like polling.

If you're interested in understanding statistics, I'd recommend taking a college-level class in it when you get to university -- they should explain both the basics also also what people actually mean when they talk about using statistics to manipulate an argument in "intellectually dishonest" ways.

Cheers,
-E.

Quote from: StormBringer;588444Fireball damage.

Look, if you are rolling more than one die for any reason at all, it's a bell curve.  Period.  You may end up rolling second level hit points days, months or weeks later; it's still a bell curve because you are adding them.  And if you are adding them, you can figure the average.  The only way they could be discrete is if you rolled a d6 at first level, then replaced that with another d6 roll at 2nd level and used that instead.  Or if you use a d66 roll or something.  d% is actually linear, but 2d10 is not.

A bell curve requires multiple data points.  If my 10th level wizard casts a 10d6 fireball, it does not create a bell curve.  It creates a discrete number for that one casting.

Quote from: StormBringer;588444So, if you want to talk about Thieves, you can use the cumbersome phrase "Thieves can have either one hit point or six hit points at first level, which compares favourably with the Cleric, who can have either one hit point or eight hit points at first level."  Except, everyone already knows that because of the "dX" notation.  Rather than sit around doe-eyed at the innumerable possibilities, we just shorthand it and say "Thieves average 3.5 hit points per level, while Clerics average 4.5 hit points per level."  Which is far more useful for talking about the two classes than trying to puzzle out all the possible combinations of hit points as though math doesn't have a way to save us the time.

For any individual Thief that is actually being played?  Yeah, you obviously don't use averages unless you are curious if you are ahead of or behind the curve.  You roll each level, add Con bonus and get back to playing.  No one has suggested using averages in normal play as a routine matter.  But when you are talking about game design or aspects of play, using the averages keeps from having to enumerate every possibility for sword damage.

OK, I get where you are coming from here.  The average is important from an overall game design perspective.  Equally important is to look at 1, 2, 3 standard deviations from that average.

Quote from: Old One Eye;588447A bell curve requires multiple data points.  If my 10th level wizard casts a 10d6 fireball, it does not create a bell curve.  It creates a discrete number for that one casting.

Actually, this isn't true.  If you have a range of numbers (in this case using 10d6) you do have a bell curve of probability.  It's how standard deviations are calculated.  You don't need more than one cast to get that distribution curve.  In fact, you don't need any castings at all.

Go to anydice.com and put in output 10d6 and hit graph.  There's your bell curve.

Quote from: deadDMwalking;588393Now, there is a place for weighted averages, but if you're rolling straight dice for hit points, you have to recognize that 2d6 is 2 as often as it's 12.  Over many levels, it will probably average 3.5, but the differences from the average in the short term can be very important - and they may be the difference between having a chance and being 'guaranteed a short life'.  

Just a quibble, but hp probabilities are on a bell curve. 2 and 12 are equally likely (1 in 36 odds I think) but 6 or 7 are more likely (1 in 6 I think). And the curve gets steeper the higher in level you are.

Sorry if I got anything wrong, but I just woke up. Gotta be awake for an all-nighter when some oil-based ink dries.

QuoteOf course, we'd expect the DM to 'have pity' and allow you to either re-roll or take the average right?

Honestly, the point of highest randomness (1st level) often gets a special rule for exactly this reason. Special rules include a flat bonus from con (for games where you don't apply that over and over), max on the die, or some other flat hp total or bonus.

In games where randomess is kept high, I would assume they keep it in place because they want it.

Quote from: Sacrosanct;588449Actually, this isn't true.  If you have a range of numbers (in this case using 10d6) you do have a bell curve of probability.  It's how standard deviations are calculated.  You don't need more than one cast to get that distribution curve.  In fact, you don't need any castings at all.

Go to anydice.com and put in output 10d6 and hit graph.  There's your bell curve.

There absolutely is a bell curve of probability.  The actual result, however, is not a bell curve.