So Monte Cook, admitting he doesn't really know for sure but based on his knowledge as a longtime Wizards employee and based on plans created at the times he worked there, says that there will be a 4th edition of D&D released for 2008.

Whereas I believe Chris Pramas claimed it would be 2007? Which means if he were right there'd have to be an announcement sometime next tuesday.

Anyways, have any other industry sorts made predictions about 4th edition?

RPGPundit

Not an "industry" sort myself, but I've been predicting for a long time that we'd see it announced in late 2007.

Charles Ryan said, while being boss of D&D, that 4th ed would be announced at least a year before it was published. Charles isn't with WOTC anymore, but I believe that a year's head start would still be a good idea for them (to allow the marketing machine to ramp up, like it did for 3e).

I would say that it is 95% certain that whatever year WOTC release 4e, they will do so at GenCon. That means that they will announce it at the GenCon before. So I guess we'll know in August whether there's going to be a 4e in 2007. Personally, I doubt it, but you never know. I guess it depends on how the more esoteric books they're making nowadays are selling (I'm betting a lot more people are interested in Complete Warrior than Tome of Magic - Tome is good, but CW is more basic).

I'm going to go with Levi on this one.  Then again, it's just my guess, and not even an educated one at that.

I think your all fucked in the head, and I hope '07 comes and goes with nary a peep so I can lord it over all of you. :evillaugh: :evillaugh: :evillaugh:


:stirthepot:

I think the real prediction is what will be in it to try keep their market from fracturing.  It'll have to be pretty damn good to drag a significant chunk of the market forward.

Especially after 3.5.

Me I've played 3e for years. Since it came out.  But I have not yet purchased the 3.5 core books, at this point I don't intend to, and have only one 3.5 based source book (was a gift).

EDIT  Incidentally could someone explain to me why WotC would announce a 4th edition so far ahead?  Because i'd expect their 3.X sales to take a nose dive when they announce it as people hold off for 4th, not wanting to purchase a book that will be obsolete shortly. Or at least WotC is going to want a large percentage of people to expect their 3.X books to become obsolete because that would be an indication of a intent to purchase 4e.  Are they prepared to just suffer such a revenue gap in the interests of having a long marketing build-up?

Quote from: blakkieMe I've played 3e for years. Since it came out.  But I have not yet purchased the 3.5 core books, at this point I don't intend to, and have only one 3.5 based source book (was a gift).

EDIT  Incidentally could someone explain to me why WotC would announce a 4th edition so far ahead?

I think you answered your own question. Lots of people have bought lots of 3.5 books, and WOTC has to persuade them to buy into the new and (hopefully) improved D&D.

There's also the PR thing. Their former representative promised a year's warning, and going back on that might reduce their popularity.

QuoteBecause i'd expect their 3.X sales to take a nose dive when they announce it as people hold off for 4th, not wanting to purchase a book that will be obsolete shortly.

I expect that they'll do the same as they did before 3e was released: focus on crunch-light/fluff-heavy books in the year leading up to 4e. The 2e products released in 2000 were:

• Priest's Spell Compendium vol 3 (OK, pure crunch, but part 3 in a series)
• Diablo adventure game campaign setting
• Vortex of madness and other planar perils (not sure what this is, really)
• The Apocalypse Stone (adventure with a rationale for the world changes)
• Die, Vecna! Die! (ditto)
• Reverse Dungeon (gimmick)
• Diablo II: The Awakening
• Volo's Guide to Baldur's Gate (linked to the computer game)
• Cloak & Dagger (metaplot catch-up for FR, and stuff on a couple of organizations)
• Slavers (adventure, remake of the old A series)
• Van Richten's Monster Hunter's Compendium vol 3 (part of a series, and I think the VR books were pretty fluffy)

I think that's pretty much it, but I might have missed something. Anyway, there's not a Complete Handbook among them, nor any Player's Option books. There are a bunch of adventures, and most of the non-adventures would be easy to use in 3e.

That's what I think they'll release before 4e as well.

Quote from: Ragnarok N RollI think your all fucked in the head, and I hope '07 comes and goes with nary a peep so I can lord it over all of you. :evillaugh: :evillaugh: :evillaugh:


:stirthepot:

If you can lord away after a quiet '07, I'll be thrilled.  :bow:

So there's already talk about 4e... time flies and I'm feeling old.

There was lots of turnover in personnal. I wonder if that will significantly impact the final product. Perhaps a return to niche balance instead of game balance? May be too much to hope for.

I could be very far off but I suspect that the few small downsizings are an indication that 4E is not on the immediate horizon.  If it was they would want to keep a sizable number of designers around to create the edition and the new wave of support books.  

The voices tell me that Hasbro would rather have D&D be more like their other products.  They license funky versions of Monopoly but they don't edit the rules of the core game every few years.  Instead, they would rather leverage the brand of D&D into new places to both cash in on its name and to keep new people coming in and buying all the books that have already been created.

I'm guessing 2008 at the earliest, but quite possibly 2009 or even 2010.

Quote from: Zachary The FirstIf you can lord away after a quiet '07, I'll be thrilled.  :bow:

Not all that likely if they do give a full year warning. Seven or eight years between major releases is pretty normal.  The GenCon release date is a pretty solid bet, that's the big buzz party in the industry.

EDIT:  Hasboro might prefer that D&D were a board game that hasn't changed it's rules in several decades, and keep chunging in sales with licensing added sales that just "skin" the actual game. But, well, it isn't a boardgame and it doesn't have the market target type to do that.  They might hold off to 2009, as was mentioned it likely depends a lot on what their sales curves are looking like, and we don't get to see their total sales. Plus they've got to be convinced they have a boffo idea (theoretically an improvement) that'll compel people to make the 3e -> 4e jump.

Quote from: DackeThere's also the PR thing. Their former representative promised a year's warning, and going back on that might reduce their popularity.

I guess I should have worded the question more clearly. WTH would he promise that to start with.  But yah, I guess an extensive marketing pre-deploy makes sense for them.

Quote from: blakkieI guess I should have worded the question more clearly. WTH would he promise that to start with.

My guess is: there was a lot of talk about a possible 4th ed over at ENWorld (and likely at WOTC's boards as well). Charles popped in to calm everyone down, saying something like "I can't really talk about stuff that's not in the current catalogue, but I can tell you that we wouldn't release 4e without at least one year's warning and marketing."

3e's extensive, long-term pre-release marketing seems to have had some success as a strategy.  

I was expecting a thread on *content* predictions.  Timing?  I'm guessing announcement at GenCon 2007 and release at GenCon 2008.

Quote from: NicephorusThe voices tell me that Hasbro would rather have D&D be more like their other products.  They license funky versions of Monopoly but they don't edit the rules of the core game every few years.  Instead, they would rather leverage the brand of D&D into new places to both cash in on its name and to keep new people coming in and buying all the books that have already been created.

I remember Ryan Dancey talking about something like this: releasing variants of the core books every few years with thematic differences. Like the Anime D&D or the Horror D&D or something like that.

I would like to see the same gap that 1E to 2E had myself.  They are still getting a lot of mileage out of 3.5 and their Miniature Game is chugging along and doing well and they have increased set production so if they do in fact do a 4E I wouldn't expect it till 2008 Gen Con at the least.