Quote from: StumpydaveHeh, Yeah you're probably right.  My only problem there is I don't like/play dnd.

Maybe you'll like D&D 4E though

In any event, JimBob is right that the next "big thing" will probably be very D&Dish.  Probably.  That means that it might possibly be something else.  

I'm hopeful.

I'm hopeful that someone will produce a carefully structured, non-free form game that is intricite and yet rules-light at the same time.  Just enough detail to create interesting and diverse characters, but at the same time, not so complicated as to scare away casual gamers.  And with the scope for characters to develop over the course of long term campaigns.  It will be generic, and easily capable of playing at both low and high power levels.  I'm not fussy though, it doesn't have to work for supers.  Oh, and it should probably use d6's, but no more than four at a time.

IMHO, the ideal game system should be like chess.  Chess has only a handful of rules, but an infinite number of possibilities.  It's detail and complexity has intrigued intellectuals and enthusiasts for centuries.

I'd like that, too.

But it'll probably just be another version of D&D.

how about chess with DnD rules....

Quote from: David ROne thing's for sure though, the Big Bang will come from trad/mainstream games rather than from the indie scene, IMO of course.

I have no idea if there will be a next bang. I have no idea if it will be indie or mainstream. But I know it sure as hell won't come from a traditional game.

To reverse the declining user base and create a bang, I don't see any solution except to change the way we play these things.

I hate 3/3.5E, but it rebooted the franchise and RPGs in general after its release. I don't think your going to see that type of ripple effect with any other game or game system.

Here's my creeping sense of Deja Vu.

We had this exact same conversation at the Gaming Outpost in 1999-2000. Although the phrase used was more like "next big thing" and (stupidly) "paradigm shift".

The money was on "anything but D&D" being the most important game that year, to take up where Deadlands had left off. Most people at that time seemed to think either Big Eyes Small Mouth or Feng Shui was going to be the next big thing. Or possibly Seventh Sea. Failing that, there was always that Trinity sci-fi RPG that White Wolf had put out.

But it would never be D&D or D20.

Here's my crazy theory:

You can't be a breakout success without appealing to a large audience.

The next big thing cannot be anticipated.
Elsewise it would be the recent big thing.

Quote from: Abyssal MawBut it would never be D&D or D20.

Did you know about the plans for D20 SRD at the time? Any of the contents?  Because yes, you can anticipate (i.e. informed speculation AKA guess) correctly. We all see the future to some degree and accuracy. If you don't you get to stay up in mom and dads attic, or a nice sanitorium.

Quote from: blakkieDid you know about the plans for D20 SRD at the time? Any of the contents?  Because yes, you can anticipate (i.e. informed speculation AKA guess) correctly. We all see the future to some degree and accuracy. If you don't you get to stay up in mom and dads attic, or a nice sanitorium.

We had heard hints of it in early 2000, and Ryan Dancey had made some appearances at the Gaming Outpost to try and explain the idea. Wick had showed up crying doom and gloom. At the time nobody knew what to believe. The very first official d20 products were John Tynes Three Days to Kill and Chris Pramas first Freeport module. Both of these were very 90s-ish. I played both of them and didn't think too highly of either one, despite liking both authors. I really do believe that the 90s were a stylistic dead-end for roleplaying games, and I came to believe that the online world was and is still clinging to those days.

At Gen Con 2000 we briefly ran into Louis Porter Jr. who had been a freelancer for several companies and he passed along a rumor that even Pinnacle and White Wolf would eventually release d20 stuff. None of us believed that at the time.

However, everyone- everyone was tremendously excited about the new D&D game itself. There were several weekly games going on down at the local game store and I showed up at one, and then volunteered to run a second one. From there I went on, took the best guys from that game and started my home campaign. Some of the guys I met through that game introduced me to their home games, and I suddenly found out that I had entered a fairly huge network of people.

That, to me, was the importance of D&D post 2000.

My experiences prior to that was I had a very hard time organizing a live group.

Quote from: Abyssal MawHere's my creeping sense of Deja Vu.

We had this exact same conversation at the Gaming Outpost in 1999-2000. Although the phrase used was more like "next big thing" and (stupidly) "paradigm shift".

The money was on "anything but D&D" being the most important game that year, to take up where Deadlands had left off. Most people at that time seemed to think either Big Eyes Small Mouth or Feng Shui was going to be the next big thing. Or possibly Seventh Sea. Failing that, there was always that Trinity sci-fi RPG that White Wolf had put out.

But it would never be D&D or D20.

Here's my crazy theory:

You can't be a breakout success without appealing to a large audience.

Everything you're saying here is on the ball (except that there were in fact a lot of people who anticipated D&D3rd to be a major release) but what's your point?

From the first time I read stuff about 3e (at Eric Noah's site) I was right stoked. It fixed so many things that were screwed up in AD&D I was convinced it was going to not only bring the vast majority of existing players forward to it, but be successful drawing new players. Then the books themselves came out and I was really impressed with the quality, especially the physical book itself.

I really did expect the SRD to bring out a lot of good D20 stuff. The first wave being rough, sure, but after that I expected good stuff. I also didn't expect the halo effect to be as strong as it was in it lifting the bar of all RPGing quality. Unfortunately I didn't take into account the lack of quality control and avoidance of market saturation brought about by not having revokable licensing, which was ultimately the cause "bust" within D20 proper and the repercusions of that on the traditional distribution channels. So the "bust" I didn't see coming until I saw racks and racks of very marginal materials at the FLGS. That's when I thought "oh boy, this is a settling out that's going to get ugly".

The SRD I was much less impressed with for covering other genres. Covering S&S and stuff close to it, damn well yes! I think time has borne that out as techincally correct in a narrow sense, although I didn't see the coming of the OGL and willingness of companys to springboard from the SRD and then leave behind the D20 logo to strike out on their own to have stuff that can be pretty damn good at invoking their target genre.