Quote from: Aos;444855With 4e wotc  is already half way there.

Lol This is true

Quote from: Koltar;444856Accidentally?

There was no 'accidentally' about it at all.

Ryan Dancey did it intentionally back in 2000 and 2004.

So did a few other designers/writers of OGL/3.X D&D back in those years.  Go back and look at interviews of those guys - it was intentional.  If WotC ever screwed things up, there would always be a version of the Dungeons & Dragons that they created in 2000 available - thats the back door they gave themselves and gamers.


- Ed C.

Genius.

Quote from: ggroy;444849By adopting the "Call of Cthulhu" model of subsequent editions?

Threre's also the Palladium model, where they just keep on cranking out a zillion RIFTS splatbooks which can be used with the original RIFTS core book.

The former won't work. Call of Cthulhu doesn't operate on the same level of crunch that D&D does. Moreover, Call of Cthulhu is all about the splats and sourcebooks - you know, Secrets of Kentucky kind of stuff. And Chaosium is small.

Paizo is already operating on the zillion splatbook model. And it is bringing them short term growth. The problem is, there are only so many subjects they can write about.

They will do an edition reboot. It's only a matter of time.

Seanchai

Quote from: Aos;444854How will they shake things up- by going broke?  That'll show those assholes over at Wizards!

There's a far reach between creating a sustainable business model that recognizes the limitations of the market and going broke.  Now, if we added in be a batshit insane dipwad who doesn't keep up with technolgy and loves to alienate fans and writers, well you can go broke with that business model in anly market.

So yeah, there are things Palladium does they certainly shouldn't emulate.

Here's an instructive real-world example of what's happening.

January 2010: Mongoose writer Gareth Hanrahan is laid off, after a 7 year contract with them. He wrote some of the best received product (e.g. the Traveller core book) and was one of the few people who could keep up the demands in word count. But BAM, laid off he gets.

So what does Gareth think he could do (in Jan 2010)?

QuoteSo, what are the next steps? (...) I’ve already got some freelancing lined up, and I’m actively looking for more work. The freelance market is vastly changed since I last went actively looking, back in 2003(!), but there’s still some work out there. I’m obviously going to keep my hand in the Traveller side of things, one way or another. I also hope to keep freelancing with Mongoose on various projects, although that’s all still up in the air right now.

Part of this will likely involve learning Pathfinder, as it seems to be the place to be for third-party supplements these days. I may also try to break back into D&D4e, but third-party sales there are notoriously poor.

Now head over to the comments section to this blog entry. The first comment reads:

QuoteMearls
12/01/2010 at 10:58 pm Permalink

Drop me an email and I will put your name into the WotC freelancer queue. It’s first name (Mike) dot last name at wizards dotcom.

...And now, 13 months later (March 2011), the situation seems to be this. Gareth is still actively freelancing, and also one of the new co-publishers of Dragon Warriors. Two things seem to have happened:

- He got several gigues with Pathfinder. In one of the Serpent Skull adventure path modules, he wrote the bestiary, an article on (jungle) traps, and what not. No 3PP output for PFRPG as far as I can tell.
- All is quiet on the 4E front. Nothing on DDI, nothing outside (3PP).

What does this tell us? That 3PP seems not the best avenue in the first place to get money (as an author) or get noted (by your audience), whether for 4E or Pathfinder.

Here we have one person who realized that 2010/2011 is no longer 2003. You want to do freelance work? Write for the company, pitch an article. The 3PP model seems very, very small scale indeed these days. Which is good for occasional writers, bad for those wanting to make a living.

I hate to be the one suggesting it, but the OP and those thumbing it seem to live in the past (around 2001).

Quote from: David Johansen;444863There's a far reach between creating a sustainable business model that recognizes the limitations of the market and going broke.  Now, if we added in be a batshit insane dipwad who doesn't keep up with technolgy and loves to alienate fans and writers, well you can go broke with that business model in anly market.

So yeah, there are things Palladium does they certainly shouldn't emulate.

But it doesn't seem that it's worked for Chaosium either.  Who is it working for? Milton Bradley, maybe?

Quote from: Windjammer;444866Here we have one person who realized that 2010/2011 is no longer 2003. You want to do freelance work? Write for the company, pitch an article. The 3PP model seems very, very small scale indeed these days. Which is good for occasional writers, bad for those wanting to make a living.

I hate to be the one suggesting it, but the OP and those thumbing it seem to live in the past (around 2001).

Oh, freelancing has dramatically changed, big time. In the 90's and up to around 2003, a freelancer could pull in 10k a year, more if it was a good year. Ten cents a word was easy to get, 25 cents was possible.

Nowadays, anything above 2k is pretty miraculous...there just aren't that many opportunities out there, and a penny a word, maybe three, is about the best you can manage.

Quote from: Windjammer;444866I hate to be the one suggesting it, but the OP and those thumbing it seem to live in the past (around 2001).

For sure he is. Even if Pathfinder is the "winner" in the "new generation war" we are still left with a market A) shrunk and B) divided. This means that in 2011 3PP have to write for a potential "pool" of buyers, not the "ocean" that 3E created in 2001. I guess that, today, becoming a 3PP it is simply not worth the risk.

Quote from: Windjammer;444866Here's an instructive real-world example of what's happening.

January 2010: Mongoose writer Gareth Hanrahan is laid off, after a 7 year contract with them. He wrote some of the best received product (e.g. the Traveller core book) and was one of the few people who could keep up the demands in word count. But BAM, laid off he gets.

So what does Gareth think he could do (in Jan 2010)?

Gareth's January 2011 update.

http://thatsnotmysquid.com/blog/?p=292#content


The following excerpt is quite telling about Mongoose.

QuoteQuality, not Quantity:  I was successful at Mongoose primarily because I was able to produce lots of moderate-quality material on command on almost any topic. While that's useful, I need to aim higher. I must break myself of the mindset that the first draft has to be the final draft. When you're producing a book a month from scratch, there's no time for planning, editing, rewriting or anything other than getting words out as quickly as possible, but other companies don't work like that. Not everyone is Mongoose.

If I didn't know anything about how rpg books were written, I would have thought this was the MO of a crappy "hack" writer.

Quote from: Koltar;444856Accidentally?

There was no 'accidentally' about it at all.

Ryan Dancey did it intentionally back in 2000 and 2004.

Yeah, that's how it looks like. I also think it was a combination of business calculation and simple idealism.

Quote from: ggroyIf I didn't know anything about how rpg books were written, I would have thought this was the MO of a crappy "hack" writer.

The way the game industry operates creates mediocre products and burned-oud, cynical writers (c.f. GMS, Malcolm Sheppard). You can't develop high-quality, high-wordcount, well-tested content on the terms freelancers and salaried staff are given (tight deadlines, laughable reimbursement and no creative ownership). There are multiple ways out of this quagmire -- like reaching deeper into your pockets (WotC), abandoning the pretense of being professional game designers (various hobbyist and semi-hobbyist publishers), or abandoning the RPG market. But the model as it worked up to the mid-2000s is not working anymore.

[edit]That blog post reads disturbingly like the diary of a sweatshop grunt. Observe:

QuoteThe termination came with a month’s notice and a thank-you, nothing more. Such is the lot of the freelancer.

QuoteRemember those five million words? I own none of them. They’re all work for hire, and most of them are written for licensed games so they’re doubly not-mine.

QuoteIt was a year when ‘low orbit ion cannons’ were in newspaper headlines, when the roleplaying industry slouched and mutated, when people talked about twitter being an essential service even as the water pipes froze and burst.

Now that is some commentary on the society and economy we have created.
[/edit]

Quote from: David Johansen;444839I have a sneaking suspicion that Pathfinder fans are generally more aware of the broader industry and more likely to purchase third party products.

That is to say while I believe Pathfinder might be neck and neck or even pulling ahead some of the time, its very nature makes it more likely to draw sales for third party publishers.

Also, on this: I do not really see dedicated 4e fans clamouring for 3rd party support all that often. That part of the hobby either didn't take up 4e as readily as other groups (and some of that may be the inertia of already owning a lot of useful 3rd party stuff!), or they are happy with the content WotC is selling them. Neither of those possibilities are very good news for a 3rd party publisher.

Quote from: Aos;444847WoTc created this "new model" ... For instance, how will they avoid the edition treadmill?

They should have just stuck with that model. The GSL doesn't seem to be creating the same fervor or support the OGL/STL did.

3-4 years is a good indicator, at 5 years you've hit your "make it or break it" hump. I think we can look at Paizo's efforts and get a strong indication of where they're headed.

There's no need to avoid or embrace any "edition treadmill". Look at the market. Retro-clones abound. Retreads, redos, reformats, and other "re-" words are all over the place. You can play any edition you want, or several permutations of them with doses of various "new" or updated elements.

I don't see how the vast availability of different D&D editions or even the vast availability of other RPGs has even phased the popularity of Pathfinder. I can run any game at my local Game Day and have 2 - 4 stragglers (sometimes) or I can run a Pathfinder Organized Play and have a wait list. The current climate of the hobby doesn't seem to be changing the popularity of Pathfinder. I can't imagine another 5 editions of a dozen different games coming out would have any further affect on it.

I love the part of the letter referred to in the OP that it "isn't a threat" that he'll go out of business. I really, really don't think WotC gives a damn if he goes out of business. How can he threaten them with it?

Quote from: ggroy;444878http://thatsnotmysquid.com/blog/?p=292#content


The following excerpt is quite telling about Mongoose.
(...)
If I didn't know anything about how rpg books were written, I would have thought this was the MO of a crappy "hack" writer.

Yeah. I went on a rant about how disappointed I was with MongT High Guard over on TBP and Gareth flat out apologized.

The sad part is Gar has been one of my favorite designers, with many imaginative and well put together books. But I imagine that the process at Mongoose is not conducive to him producing his best. Hopefully, with his renewed commitment to quality, we'll be seeing some good stuff from him again.

Quote from: Aos;444854How will they shake things up- by going broke?  ...

Quote from: Aos;444855Better yet, they could follow the previous D&D model.,,

If, in your imagination, Paizo is going to go broke by supporting Pathfinder over the next even 5 years, then I applaud your imagination.  After all, I imagine the zombie apocalypse all the time when running those games. Your vibrant imagination must make for some interesting gaming! Especially when you can take the glaringly obvious and convince yourself of the entirely make believe, you my friend are gifted in every meaning of that term.

Seriously, they have already shaken things up. Past tense. You are currently experiencing the shaking things up part. Well, those of us paying attention are experiencing it. You however, may be stuck in some strange Bermuda Triangle of Oblivious or your game store exists in a dimension circa 1999. Although that might be cool. What I wouldn't give to take a joy ride back to those days!!

In fact your insistence that Paizo is not an example of a good publisher and really out of whack opinions on the current state of the industry kind of worries me. OK. OK.  Who's the current president of the united states?

*looks concerned yet hopeful*