At least a few companies with consumer goods end-markets have already reported weak Q4s, reflecting how low/middle-income consumers are still under pressure (inflation hurting spending power) and how many are rotating what little discretionary income they have toward services from goods. This is a continuation of trends seen last summer/fall. The comps are tough as well. HAS is not immune to these broad-based trends (WMT/TGT both got hammered last summer), so I would be careful not to read too much into a weak Q4 number or 2023 guidance.
It will be interesting if this OGL topic even arises on the call. I'm guessing not, but if so, they'll casually dismiss it with some corporate speak about evolving to serve the customer in a way that benefits everyone etc.