Are we sure the DM's Guild is PDF only?
Doesn't OBS usually offer POD as an option?
I almost guarantee that folk who use the DM Guild to publish their own material will make more money using that than they'd ever dream of making by self-publishing off their own back, even with the increased 'agent' fee that wizards are taking.
Maybe, but I am unsure. Let's say you sell 100 PDFs for $10.
DM's Guild
That's $500 for you, $250 for WotC and $250 for OBS.
To make $750, you would need to see 150 PDFs.
Is the DM's guild really going to result in 50% more sales???
VS.
Self-Publishing
You sell 100 PDFs on KS or OBS and you keep $750 (or more), and you keep control of your creation. You also can sell POD and dead tree.
I absolutely see the value for people who want to make Forgotten Realms stuff, but I see less value for people who want to make D&D stuff.
Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see how the online PDF buying community is suddenly going to expand due to the DM's Guild.
OBS already has its preview option so nobody needs to be surprised by the quality of a PDF since they can usually read a few pages and see some art before they make a purchase.
Not only that, but your work might even be used officially in future (sure you don't get paid for that, but what do you want, the moon on a stick?)
Fanboys will happily shove the moon on a stick up their ass, but established authors may not want to risk that scheme - especially if their work could be then translated into more profitable mediums - novels, videogames, etc - without compensation.
For all my complaints about Org Play adventures, it's an opportunity to pitch how I think LFR could be better and see if the market likes it.
THIS is where I see the DM's Guild value. It would allow for different views and takes on FR canon.
The DM's Guild reminds me a lot of Kindle Worlds.
If you're not familiar with Kindle Worlds, its a program where you can write your own "fanfic" in a licensed world such as Vampire Diaries, GI Joe, etc. and be published on Kindle. You get 20% or 35% (based on word count) and the rest goes to the Rights Holder and Amazon.
It's permission to play in someone else's playground and make some dimes. Apparently, its doing okay for Amazon and several established authors claim to be enjoying writing for Kindle Worlds properties.
I've seen a couple of posts predicting the death of the OSR movement now that people can licence 5e.
Doubtful.
We are already seeing publishers multi-statting their products for OSR, Pathfinder and "Fifth Edition Fantasy" and that will continue.
Will there be less just OSR stuff? Maybe, but not notably.
You will probably lose a lot of the shovelware, like the one page, 99 cent classes or handful of magic items.
The shovelware guys are going to flood the DM's Guild, and that makes total sense for them. Micro-purchases (aka $1.00 or $1.99, etc) are a good bet.
I just got THIS email 15 minutes ago:
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As a previous The Le Games customer, you can use this special coupon to get Magical Weapons for just $1.00! That's 50% off the MSRP! Hurry! this coupon code expires Saturday!