Quote from: James McMurrayHint:

Spoiler

her relationship to you starts with the word great repeated more than once

Oh, must we engage in stereotypes?  Why assume that it will be a woman? Why not his dad, or his brother?  To turn the tables a little, why not his dog, or perhaps his preteen niece?  Puts a little different face on the matter, doesn't it?

!i!

Quote from: SeanchaiSee, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Nobody calls me a liar.

Nobody.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaOh, must we engage in stereotypes?  Why assume that it will be a woman? Why not his dad, or his brother?  To turn the tables a little, why not his dog, or perhaps his preteen niece?  Puts a little different face on the matter, doesn't it?

!i!

Who's stereotyping? Seanchai has done this before.

And did I mention that J Arcane is a liar?

Quote from: James McMurrayWho's stereotyping? Seanchai has done this before.

And did I mention that J Arcane is a liar?

So how's 4chan doing these days, James?

I have a feeling that I have seen all this before. This all sounds like Microsoft Vista forum stuff!

There will be a bunch of early adopters.

A lot of others sticking with the older versions until an update is inevitably released. And others will defend their old versions to the death! DEATH I TELL YOU!

There will be incompatibilities with old systems, but anything new will come out with the new platform in mind.

Eventually no matter which group you go to, someone will have a copy of the new platform and tell you how shiny it looks! Check out my glossy pictures man!

Sleek new competitors will start eating up market share and open source niche markets will grow and be cool with the hardcore crowd.

In the end sales will drop because every man and his dog will be hitting the torrent sites to nab their new copy so they can give it a discrete once over before they consider purchasing the product.

Personally I have no doubt that the game will sell but I think that it won't be quite as successful as previous iterations

Quote from: J ArcaneSo how's 4chan doing these days, James?

No idea. I've heard enough about it that I don't want to know what it's actually like.

Quote from: telliusI have a feeling that I have seen all this before. This all sounds like Microsoft Vista forum stuff!

I bet WotC is really hoping 4e is nothing like Vista.

Check the news:
http://news.google.com/news?q=Microsoft+Vista

Vista has not been well received.

Quote from: StuartI bet WotC is really hoping 4e is nothing like Vista.

Check the news:
http://news.google.com/news?q=Microsoft+Vista

Vista has not been well received.

...largely by a lot of wags that don't actually understand what they are talking about. The "it's XP with a paint job" myth certainly has taken hold on the interent. Plus it's like people entirely forgot what it was like with Windows XP prior to SP1. Not that Vista doesn't have problems. But it's definately moving units. :shrug:  WotC could do better but they definately could do worse as well.

I use Vista at work because I have to...and actually, you know what? I really like it. It's easier on the eye than XP, does exactly the same things, and has cool knobs and whistles.

Anyway, back on topic, regardless of its merits, I'm really not sure 4e will do well, because I think roleplaying in general is now a closed market; most existing players of d&d will pick up a copy, but it won't touch anybody outside of the hobby in anything like significant numbers. That's because kids who are the age I was when I started playing d&d and who are the main target when talking about bringing people into the hobby (12+ ish) now have a whole host of other things to spend time doing that are similar enough to roleplaying, while also being more easily accessible and instantly gratifying - i.e. MMORPGs and computer games in general.

So I think the new edition will shift numbers and keep WotC ticking over, but that's all.

Regarding the people who complain about 4th edition...you're probably right that some will eventually be won over. I'll never say never, but my main emotion right now regarding the mechanics of 4th edition is just utter disinterest and boredom rather than hatred, which makes me think I'll be one of the ones who just sticks with 2nd-edition-until-I-die-thanks-very-much.

Quote from: TrevelyanI'd like to take this opportunity to post some predictions so that, in the event they cometo pass, I can point back here in the months to come and say "told you so" in an insufferably smug manner. Obviously if I'm wrong then everyone is welcome to rub this thread in my face at a later date.

I'd also be interested in hereing some honest predictions from other people. What do various people think, all personal interest aside, will actually come to pass? If you want to preserve your own expectations then feel free to do so.

I like this "prediction" game, so I'll oblige you in playing it. Prognostication can be fun.

Quote from: TrevelyanAnyway, my predictions:

1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

4e will succeed very well....in the short-term, but the current game plan for 4e is not a recipe for long-term success, and I'll tell you why.

Quote from: Trevelyan2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

Partially right, and partially wrong. 4e might or might not be a good game, but the fears of "MMOfication" and "CCGification" will continue unabated by a large number of people. I guarantee it.

Quote from: Trevelyan3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

4e will be considered the D&D adventure game/MMO/ccg/ice cream, but not quite exactly D&D, the classic rpg. At least not as most people know it....

Quote from: Trevelyan4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

Probably correct, but the skeptics won't be long-term customers for 4e, and a game needs long-term customers to survive.

Quote from: Trevelyan5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

I won't take the bait on that one. Whether or not those complaints about the MMO-ization of 4e are grounded in reality or not is irrelevant. The perception exists that 4e is transforming into an MMO, and that perception is all that counts.

Quote from: Trevelyan6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

The final outcome won't be what you think.

Quote from: TrevelyanDoes anyone honestly think things will be different? If so, how?

Yes. Here's a response I made about Pathfinder on RPGnet, that also delves into the future of 4e. Scroll down to post #136, and you'll see what I said:

http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?t=385115&page=14

For those who don't wish to visit there, here's my post on RPGnet in all it's glory:

Quote from: ChristinaStiles (on RPGnet)It doesn't have to be bigger. That's their point. There's a large enough market out there for Paizo (not just any company) to produce 3.5/3.75 material. They can succeed at this. I predict they'll bring in market shares enough to rival them at least with White Wolf in rpg sales.

And my reply to her..

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb (on RPGnet)You have the right of it. Pathfinder alone will not "defeat" 4e, but then it doesn't have to. What will happen is that Paizo will sell a shitload of copies of Pathfinder. Guaranteed. Now here's the tricky part. The almost-unthinkable endgame of Pathfinder's success, will be Hasbro eventually defeating itself in the rpg arena, and before anyone scoffs, let me explain..

Hasbro now rejects the OGL and the movement that surrounds it. Most d20 and OGL publishers will find this unacceptable, because they want to publish d20-style games, and do it without outside interference. They'll see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead end, and will jump back onto 3.x for three reasons:

(1.) Paizo has given us a reminder that embracing the 3.x market is viable from a business perspective, as there are still tons of people that play 3.x and variant d20 and OGL games.

(2.) There is the realization that publishers will be unable to devise a stable long-term business plan based upon the 4e license, since it can be changed at a moment's notice, and will inevitably be changed when the game drastically changes again in a few years when there is another edition of D&D.

(3.) 4e is a major departure from both the rules and implied setting of D&D. It's an entirely different animal, and its long-term success is a great big unknown for many people.

The end result of all this will cause one quite logical thing to happen. The rpg market will fragment more drastically than ever before. Whether or not this is something to rejoice about, or despise, is open to debate, but Hasbro put themselves into this situation, and the arrival of Pathfinder is the first major symptom of the fragmentation that has already begun...

The other symptoms will take the form of multiple d20 and OGL publishers publishing 3.x-compatible material again under the banner of the OGL, which is the only safe harbor they know, and which has a guaranteed audience. Some publishers will create their own variant OGL games, such as True 20, while other game companies will push their own OGL's for their own entirely different systems, as doing so will strengthen the trademarks for their own games. This will have the end effect of eroding Hasbro's market share in the rpg industry.

The thing to remember is that 3e and the OGL created a certain buzz and excitement that never existed before in the rpg industry. Here, we suddenly had tons of gamers who returned to D&D with the advent of 3.0, and many of these gamers literally had their dreams come true in the form of a license that actually encouraged them to write their own material, compatible with their favorite roleplaying game. That license completely changed the mental landscape of the game industry, when people came to the sudden realization that, for better or for worse, anyone can be a publisher. Before the OGL, few would ever dream of this being a reality.

Fast forward things less than a decade later, and we already have two new editions.....3.5, and very shortly, 4e. This shows us that the "planned obsolescence model" is the way of it now for the D&D owned by Hasbro. The knowledge that this model exists demonstrates that 4e is a dead-end for publishers. Hasbro is trying to close Pandora's Box, so to speak, but they just can't do it. The OGL is forever, and I suspect Hasbro is trying to nudge people into forgetting that.

Pathfinder will sell tons of copies, though 4e will sell more. That being said, 4e won't last. It can't, because of the closed nature of the 4e license, the lack of large numbers of third-party publishers to support it for a long period of time, and the departure of 4e from the "classic" D&D experience.

Pathfinder will dominate the 3.x market....initially. It's possible that another third-party publisher will eventually dominate the 3.x market, if said publisher does a better job of giving the 3.x fans what they want. Other more "variant" OGL games, such as Conan, Mutants & Masterminds, True 20, and Castles & Crusades will continue to perform well in the marketplace, provided they keep a relatively brisk production schedule, and maintain high production values. You'll see a smattering of completely new OGL games if this comes to pass, which it likely will.

I'll go on record here, and say that Paizo will likely increase their market share because of this decision to publish a 3.x-compatible game under the OGL, provided it remains compatible enough, and if they streamline the rules a little bit. It's a balancing act to do that, but if they succeed, then the publication of this game will act as both a catalyst and a reminder for other publishers, that following the 3.x fanbase is viable from an economic standpoint. Players are generally interested in games that are in print. The announcement of Pathfinder will guarantee that 3.x remains in print, and when the customers go there (and they will), other publishers will follow suit.

While this is happening, more players will explore the viability of other non-20ish rpgs, especially games with OGLs. No one single game has to "defeat" D&D. Within ten years, Hasbro will, at least partially, defeat itself in the rpg arena.

However, even with the economic viability of 3.x, publishers still have only a limited window of opportunity to start releasing their first 3.x-compatible products. They have two to three years, at most. If they wait any longer, then the fickle public will move on. Paizo is releasing a beta this year, and the final version next year, so they'll be fine.

The changes in the rpg landscape will drastically change over the next decade, and a clever publisher has never had a better opportunity to take advantage of that reality than now.

__________________

I predict 4E is going to bring back into the fold some gamers who stopped playing D&D. The same thing happened when 3E was released.

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RI predict 4E is going to bring back into the fold some gamers who stopped playing D&D. The same thing happened when 3E was released.

Regards,
David R

I don't see how 4e will attract people if 3e didn't.

Unless you are talking about people who bought 3e then stopped playing it - in which case that's not even remotely the same thing that happened with 3e (BD&D/AD&D players who never bought 2e buying 3e).

Quote from: jgantsI don't see how 4e will attract people if 3e didn't.

Unless you are talking about people who bought 3e then stopped playing it - in which case that's not even remotely the same thing that happened with 3e (BD&D/AD&D players who never bought 2e buying 3e).

No, I'm saying 4E may bring back folks who stopped playing D&D for whatever reason. 3E did the same. I can't say for sure but I think each succesive edition brought back folks who stopped playing D&D.

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RNo, I'm saying 4E may bring back folks who stopped playing D&D for whatever reason. 3E did the same. I can't say for sure but I think each succesive edition brought back folks who stopped playing D&D.

Regards,
David R

Antidotally I know people that stopped playing 2e as well as 1e and came back for 3e.

P.S.  Until I had read Maw's posts it hadn't occured to me before that there were OD&D/BD&D players that stopped, had skipped AD&D altogether, and started back with 3e.

Quotethe lack of large numbers of third-party publishers to support it for a long period of time

D&D doesn't need 3rd party support, and never did.  The biggest seller of material for D&D has always been Wizards, so much so that most of the market largely gave up on it and abandoned straight-up D&D for their own house systems that are only secondarily related to it and called D20 for marketing purposes.