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Author Topic: [US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?  (Read 1077 times)

Mcrow

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2008, 03:52:00 PM »
Quote from: Ian Absentia
To phrase this in less inflammatory terms (not that I disagree), popular perception worldwide certainly seems to have swayed to the notion that we are a nation content to be led by an inarticulate underachiever.  There's a lot to be said for a charismatic, inspirational leader at the fore, both good and bad.  Assuming he's promoting a vision of optimism and rejuvenation, that could do wonders for a very uncertain nation, and the way in which it is perceived by other nations.

Of course, actions will always speak louder than words, again for good or ill.

!i!


Sorry, I don't do PC for PC's sake. :D

Bottomline is that there are many countries in the world that think our president is a idiot. Personally, I don't think he's half as dumb as he comes off.

John Morrow

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2008, 11:14:46 AM »
Quote from: Ian Absentia
The rules are simple.  Two candidates from which to choose to represent the Democratic Party in the race for office of the President of the United States:  US Senator Hillary Clinton or US Senator Barack Obama.  No write-ins, no declarations of "neither".  Only those two candidates, and if you respond you must choose one.


The question you need to ask yourself is this -- do you think that either Obama or Hillary can beat John McCain in the fall?  You can take my answer with a grain of salt because I'm a Republican, but I don't think that either one can, in part because the Democrat primary was such a softball campaign.  While Obama and Hillary might have been affraid to go negative with each other (and howled in outrage at any sign of negativity), the general election isn't going to be so pleasant and the race card and sex card is only going to play so well to the middle, especially if it's seen as evasive.  Getting hit by a barrage of attack ads after looking untouchable is far worse than a trickle of attack ads that get people used to seing negative things said about the candidate.

And while Obama may not seem divisive now, he's going to be asked some pointed questions before this is over about divisive issues like affirmative action, slavery reparations, dealing with the Middle East, and so on that are going to be divisive, even if he declines to be specific.  It's easy for him to play to the Democrat base but it's going to be a lot harder to play to the center, which is what Hillary has been doing with her eye on the general election, probably to her detriment in the primaries.  Obama has been running to Hillary's left, which will probably come back to bite him in the general election.

So, if I am correct that neither can beat McCain, the best thing for the Democrat Party to do would be to nominate Hillary.  That would serve two purposes.  First, it would help discourage her from future bids for the Presidency, leaving room for fresh candidates and, second, it would save Obama for later, when he has a little more experience under his belt and another primary season to test him better.  And if I'm wrong and one can beat McCain, Hillary's chances are probably better, not only because black voters already vote 90% Democrat but women are more of a toss-up but also because she's been more consistenty centrist, keeping her eyes on the general election.  Things that Obama has been saying may appeal to the Democrat base to get him the nomination, but they'll make for great commercials for his opponent and probably won's appeal to the center nearly as well, and whoever the Democrats nominate are going to have to fight McCain for the center.

Why don't I think either candidate will get elected?  A few reasons.  First is that McCain owns the center an it going to make it difficult for either candidate to get votes there.  He's also going to be difficult to paint with the Bush brush since he's stood up to Bush enough on various issues.  I also think that Democrats confuse Bush's low approval rates with the idea that voters are looking for far-left proposals like national healthcare and so on, which isn't necessarily true.  I also doubt that leaving Iraq will be as appealing to the center once various people start framing that as cut-and-run and McCain, by virtue of his Vietnam War credentials, can be very credible on that issue.

But perhaps a bigger issue will lie in the Democrats themselves.  Various Democrat factions have a great deal of emotion and hope invested in either Hillary or Obama and I don't see that easily transferring to the other candidate, especially if this reace comes down to the convention.  And while a Hillary-Obama or Obama-Hillary ticket seems plausible, I don't think it's going to happen.  A Presidential candidate doesn't want a VP candidate that will eclipse them when it comes to attention (Hillary asking Obama) or that comes with a lot of baggage (Obama nominating Hillary).  So while there is plenty of talk about the Republican base staying home for McCain, I suspect a sizable number of Democrats will be disillusioned by the process when their person doesn't get the nomination.  And priming their base to believe in stolen or rigged elections could backfire if they believe that, for example, Hillary won because the fix was in.

With a little more experience and a meatgrinder primary that actually test his ability to deal with negative attack ads and tough questions, I think Obama could be an excellent candidate but the puffball primaries this year didn't set him up for a win.  He needs to be tested, not adored.


If you do think that either Hillary or Obama can win in November, the best thing you can do is vote for the one who you think stands the best chance of winning, because from a practical policy standpoint, there isn't a huge difference between them.
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walkerp
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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2008, 11:43:32 AM »
I think your analysis is quite sound, John Morrow. I would add that I also think once the real election starts, you'll see a lot of people on the farther right coming around to McCain.  They know where their bread is buttered.
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John Morrow

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2008, 01:02:37 PM »
Quote from: walkerp
I think your analysis is quite sound, John Morrow. I would add that I also think once the real election starts, you'll see a lot of people on the farther right coming around to McCain.  They know where their bread is buttered.


I agree, especially if Hillary or Obama start talking about certain hot-button issues for the right (which their own base is going to demand).  Also, for either Hillary or Obama to try to take the center from McCain is going to create a certain amount of alienation among their base.  That's one area where Obama is far more vulnerable than Hillary, who has already been keeping her eye on the center.  If he starts talking like a centrist in the general election to try to take some of the center from McCain, he stands a good chance of looking like a sell-out to his base that sees him as an agent of radical change.  And if the Democrat can't take the center away from McCain, they can't win unless nearly all conservatives sit on their hands on election day.

Bear in mind that despite a pretty much all-out offensive against both him and Huckabee by right-wing talk radio and talk radio's support of Thompson and Romney, it's McCain and Huckabee that are the last men standing.  I'm not convinced that most conservatives view McCain as negatively as several very vocal conservatives do.
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Ian Absentia

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2008, 01:15:48 PM »
Quote from: John Morrow
The question you need to ask yourself is this -- do you think that either Obama or Hillary can beat John McCain in the fall?
To be completely frank, the question I'm asking myself is: Given that I consider John McCain to be an acceptable Republican candidate -- one with whom I am comfortable, if not entirely confident -- which Democratic candidate presents the best option for a "win-win" result in the general election?  Yes, I'd prefer that a Democratic candidate win the office of the President, but which pairing with McCain presents the best probable result for the nation as a whole regardless of which party's candidate takes the office?

!i!

John Morrow

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2008, 01:23:51 PM »
Quote from: Ian Absentia
To be completely frank, the question I'm asking myself is: Given that I consider John McCain to be an acceptable Republican candidate -- one with whom I am comfortable, if not entirely confident -- which Democratic candidate presents the best option for a "win-win" result in the general election?  Yes, I'd prefer that a Democratic candidate win the office of the President, but which pairing with McCain presents the best probable result for the nation as a whole regardless of which party's candidate takes the office?


In that case, I would probably say that Hillary will probably produce the best debate with McCain that remains centrist and achievable because I think she has more thoughtful, developed, and pragmatic positions on various issues than Obama.  I think the Democrats need to put Obama away for another 8-12 years or so.  Ideally, they'd let him run for and win the governorship of Illinois, since governors make better candidates, and then let him run.  In a general way, I don't think Obama is ready yet and I think Hillary simply has more credibility to go up against McCain on the issues.

So, yeah, my answer to you is still Hillary. :)
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Spike

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2008, 01:41:10 PM »
Quote from: Ian Absentia
Yes, I'd prefer that a Democratic candidate win the office of the President,
!i!



Maybe I'm reading too much into it but...


.... why the hell does it matter which party the candidate is from?   :confused:

I've never got the 'party/brand loyalty' thing, myself.  Every election I look at all the candidates as closely as I can (time/energy being factors here), and the policies they seem to stand for and go from there. I'll admit I've been trending towards Republican the last couple elections, but I've put my romantic hopes and dreams behind independents and even democrats in the past.

If the Reps put forth the Huck I'll probably vote for some no-name indy this time around. I refuse to support a dynasty trend (and have serious questions about how we legally treat a husband/wife unit, particularly in this regard...) any longer, and as much as I like the idea of Obama (young new blood, with few establishment ties, winning on charisma) his politics are far to radically left for me to vote for him. I don't like his message/platform.

Personally, I would have welcomed the excuse to look closer at Edwards and Romney.  Alas...

Right now with a field of four, the least offensive, to me, is McCain, and I posted earlier that I have reservations about him too...
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J Arcane

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2008, 01:55:08 PM »
I'd rather see a trained monkey in office before I'd see a crooked cunt like Hillary Clinton.  Her record of championing censorship alone insures that, add to that the political opportunism, lack of any thing resembling loyalty to any cause but her own lust for power, and a past full of shady events that never got fully cleared up thanks to her presidential spouse, and you've got one hell of a slimy bitch.

Obama's probably a bloody actor, but at least he's not as much of a known crook as Hillary.
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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2008, 02:27:00 PM »
Quote from: J Arcane
Her record of championing censorship alone insures that

I saw this same accusation brought up in the Super Tuesday thread and I sincerely wonder where it comes from, other than the nonsequitur that Tipper Gore did in fact advocate a ratings system and other measures regarding "objectionable" music.

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2008, 02:28:38 PM »
Quote from: Elliot Wilen
I saw this same accusation brought up in the Super Tuesday thread and I sincerely wonder where it comes from, other than the nonsequitur that Tipper Gore did in fact advocate a ratings system and other measures regarding "objectionable" music.
Hillary has been one of the primary champions of video game censorship, alongside fellow Dem ally Joe Lieberman.
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Koltar

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2008, 02:30:46 PM »
Actually the Arcane bunny is right about that one - but it would take a whole new thread to go into the particulars.

Obama is still the better choice for the Dems.


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Ian Absentia

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2008, 02:35:22 PM »
Quote from: Spike
Maybe I'm reading too much into it but...


.... why the hell does it matter which party the candidate is from?   :confused:
Ultimately, it shouldn't, as long as one party -- or both -- isn't promoting a platform that is inimical to a substantial sector of the population.  I personally feel that the Republican Party has been derailed by certain reprehensible special interests in the last decade-and-a-half, culminating in the last seven years, that have proven deeply harmful to our nation.  I feel that the party needs to be given several deep jabs to the groin to dissuade them from pursuing the prevailing party line any further.  The loss of the majority in the House and Senate in 2006 was the first such blow; the loss of the White House should be the next.

Now, countering this, I see McCain as a candidate who signals a return to the pre-1994 "Republican Revolution" party character, which I find confounding.  I ought to be rewarding the Republican Party for shifting back to center, not punching them in the nuts when they're finally displaying some sense in my eyes.

Getting back to what I was saying to John up-thread a bit, what I want to see in the general election is a "win-win" scenario -- two candidates with whom I have roughly equal confidence and comfort that they'll do a good job for our nation as a whole, even though they may do so from very different political platforms.  I've mentioned before how disappointed I was back in 2000 when the emerging Bradley vs. McCain race was neatly torpedoed by both parties -- two candidates with whom I could have gone either way, with whom I would have been satisfied with the resulting administration.

So you're right.  Ultimately it shouldn't matter which party wins the general election, as long as the nation as a whole benefits thereby.  My duty now is to insure that the best candidates go into the general election.  My sense of things is that McCain is the emerging candidate for the Republicans, and I'm okay with him.  Thus, I've turned my attention to helping select the best candidate from the Democratic stable.  While I'm interested in who stands a better chance of defeating McCain, I'm far more interested in which Democratic candidate could act as a better leader, appoint a more effective administration, and improve and restore international relations.

!i!

arminius

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2008, 03:19:57 PM »
Quote from: J Arcane
Hillary has been one of the primary champions of video game censorship

Thanks, a quick search turns up many references to this, including on Clinton's own Senate web site.

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[US Elections] Clinton or Obama - Which one SHOULD it be? And WHY?
« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2008, 04:13:38 PM »
Quote from: Ian Absentia
The loss of the majority in the House and Senate in 2006 was the first such blow; the loss of the White House should be the next.

!i!


I guess I can see most of your point, but I wanted to address this: From what I understand, historically a 6th year president almost always loses control of congress, if he ever had it. The 2006 election, while a loss for the Repubs, was to be expected, and ultimately wasn't nearly as bad as feared.

If I were less employed (10-14 hour days, and through last weekend to boot) I might be more inclined to research that, as right now its a second hand anecdote.

I believe the explanation is that after 6 years of one party on top (presidency, say...) people start looking for a change of pace and voting for the 'other side'... at least as a national trend...
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