Based on my limited knoweldge, here are my predictions.

Please expand to include more countries and/or add more information to these predictions!

Danke!
 
AUSTRALIA: The Labor opposition party will not seriously threaten the ruling coalition of the Liberal and National parties. Prime Minister John Howard will be given a fifth term in power (90 percent likelihood).

CANADA: There will almost certainly be a federal election this year, ending the current Tory minority government. While the Liberals have received a slight boost with the selection of Stephane Dion as leader earlier this month, I think that the election remains one for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper to lose. Moreover, I think that an election-focused budget will greatly boost his prospects this spring.

My odds: Tory majority (35 percent); Tory minority again (40 percent); Liberal minority (23 percent); Liberal majority (2 percent).

IRELAND: The Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrats coalition will likely win another election (50 percent). Failing that, there will either be a hung parliament (25 percent), or the Fine Gail-Labour Party alliance will finally depose Taoiseach Bertie Ahern (25 percent).

UNITED KINGDOM: Prime Minister Tony Blair will step aside to be replaced by his chancellor of the exchequer, Gordon Brown. Brown's leadership will not be long lived, though, as Labour will likely lose to the Tories in the next election (60+ percent likelihood). However, that election will not happen in 2007.

UNITED STATES: Presidential bids will continue to unfold in anticipation of the 2008 federal election. Unsurprisingly, Hilary Clinton and Barak Obama will continue to be the stars among the Democratic candidates, but John Edwards should not be discounted (indeed, he may eventually emerge as the 'safe choice' for Democrats). Beyond those three, though, it is hard to see any candidate that will emerge as a very strong one (sorry, Joe Biden!).

As for the Republicans, John McCain looks stronger than ever, especially now that he seems to have won much of the 'religious right' over. Rudy Giuliani is simply too liberal on social issues to win the Republican primaries, and Mitt Romney is too Mormon. So unless a very strong 'anyone-but-McCain' candidate emerges, the Republican nomination looks like McCain's to lose.

Methinks your predictions about Canada and the U.K. are a bit peppered by your unfortunate case of Toryism.

RPGPundit

Canada is going to be stuck in a perpetual case of minority, until one of two things happen:

1)  The Tories finally oust Harper, and revert back to the old days of more Progressive" than "Conservative" (I find it odd, as a Canuck, I long for the days of Mulroney brand Conservatives...the halcyonity of looking back at the man who was one of the most reviled figures in Canadian politics says something for where the Tories have gone).  You can't purge all the Calgary think tankers, but they need to be reigned in more, and embrace the more moderate of the old Reformers.

2)  Dion proves he is nothing like Martin or Cretien.  Thast going to be harder to do.  Dion was in too deep in the Liberal governments of old, even though he was really involved with none of the problems they had.  I like Dion, moreso than I thought I would.

I REALLY pray for the NDP to kick Layton out, and find a guy more in the Ed Broadbent mold, but that will just muddy the waters even further, and entrench us even more into Minority.  There are THREE parties splitting the left vote (Four in Quebec), but only one Conservative.  If Harper gets ousted, Dion does nothing to improve his profile, and a new NDP leader actually looks competent to many, as wellas a rise in Green support, it could signal a Tory majority.

I think Dion will surprise everyone.

This is all par for the course for Canada. Three out of four years of Canada's history, it has had a liberal government.
Also, the Libs have always gone from an anglo leader to a francophone leader, and the anglo leaders have always performed poorly, and the francophone leaders have always had long terms in government.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditI think Dion will surprise everyone...

I think that there is a 25 percent chance of this happening (as stated in my  original post) -- definitely possible, but not likely.

People continually underestimate Harper (and I'm not a Harper fan!  or a Tory!).  

He is presently working with Charest to come up with a budget that will address the (largely mythical) 'fiscal imbalance' between Ottawa and the provinces (especially Quebec).  This will boost Charest's re-election chances in Quebec greatly (which already look surprisingly solid, thanks to Boisclair's weakness as PQ leader), and make Harper far more attractive to Quebec 'soft nationalists'.  Between Dion and Harper, the Bloc look to lose at least 8 seats in the next federal election (more likely 12+).

Also expect the Tories cut a deal with the NDP on an environmental bill before the next election, thus undercutting this issue for Dion (which really shouldn't be his anyway, given his abysmal record as environmental minister under Martin).  This is in interest of both the Tories and the NDP ('my enemy's enemy ...').

Finally, Harper has the power to table a pre-election budget.  Don't underestimate the boost that this will give him, especially if it includes tax breaks for the middle-class (which it will), and other goodies.

Already, the post-leadership race boost for Dion is over.  In the most recent poll, the Tories had 34 percent support, and the Liberals 31 percent.  With control of the next budget (and the government agenda more generally), and a divided left, I find it hard not to conclude that the coming election is Harper's to lose.  Whether he manages to get a majority government this time, however, is anybody's guess.

And you overestimate Harper's appeal outside the west.

He has the most secretive, insular government since Mackenzie King.  He hands everyone in his government a party line, and by golly they'd better tow it.  For all his noise about "open and fair government" given the Liberal predilection for forcing party line votes on most issues, he rules his cabinet with an iron fist, and if anyone says anything that might deviate from it a bit, they are a) hung out to dry in the media and b) reamed a new asshole in closed door meetings.

He has had the worst media relations of any prime minister in recent history.  He shuts down media scrums, only allows pro-Harper press to have access to vertain things, and basically gives the finger to everyone else.

If his budget is anything like his last budget, I doubt it will do anything to win anyone over.  

I must say, I'm happy with his new Environment Minister - Ambrose was an abysmal failure on all levels, and while it wasn't only her fault - after all, she's just doing what she's told by Harper - the change was needed.  We'll see if Harper's interests in big oil in Canada and his Alberta constituents have him hamstring any real environmental policy of substance.

And fixing the "fiscal imbalance" means squat when Alberta runs its own show over there, yet is STILL whining it needs more money from Ottawa.  The fiscal imabalance that needs fixing is between the have and have not provinces - which means Atlantic Canada.  Not between Alberta and Ontario and Quebec.

Fundamentally, there's only one party in Canada that's really a NATIONAL party, with appeal of varying degrees throughout the entire country, and that's the Liberal Party.  They always come into the game because of that with half the battle won; which means that if they lose, its because someone fucked up royally (like Paul Martin did).

The Conservatives are unelectable in the east, the NDP unelectable in the West, and the Bloc.. well, obviously the Bloc are just a factor that is set up to rob votes from the Liberals in Quebec, but have no other influence.

Its smart, really, that Harper is making filthy little backroom deals with the separatists, he knows that he can't win in Quebec ever, but the Bloc can COST liberals seats in quebec, so on a purely mercenary level it serves his interests for the Bloc to do as well as possible.

And why not? After all, they both want exactly the same thing for Canada: An impotent virtually non-extant federal government and semi-autonomous self-governing province-states each ruled by their own little gang of corrupt local fanatics. They are really a marriage made in heaven, meant for each other, with the one sole exception that Harper would have a devil of a time explaining to Average Joe Albertan why he's sucking Quebecois cock.  See, Albertans may be a rustic lot, but they still know High Treason when they see it.

So he has to do the delicate little dance of trying to do everything possible to Prop up the Bloc in practice, while still seeming as rabidly anti-Quebec in general back home in prairie country.

Trust me on this one, Dion will kick this slimy little fucker's ass seven ways to Sunday. Harper won't have a clue what hit him.

RPGPundit

Are you sure Harper isn't related to GWB?  Like, a second cousin or something?

I love how every deal he makes is a slimy filthy backroom deal.  I'm shocked, SHOCKED! to find deals being made in politics to stay in power.

Hehehe...fucking idiots...

Quote from: RPGPunditAnd why not? After all, they both want exactly the same thing for Canada: An impotent virtually non-extant federal government and semi-autonomous self-governing province-states each ruled by their own little gang of corrupt local fanatics.

Man, if this happens, I might have to move to Canada. It's what I always wanted for the US - an impotent virtually non-existent federal government and semi-autonomous self-governing province/states.

Sweet....

The US presidential election lead up is going to be an interesting thing to witness.  Especially with so many people just being happy that there is a two term limit and GWB is on his way out for good.  I think there will be a lot of focus on avoiding 'cowboy politics' and a sway to the more logical thinkers.

I've always been a supporter of Independent Parties and hopefully they will be able to stand out just a little more this election year.  Yeah I know they don't stand a snowballs chance in hell of making it into the presidental office but the more they get noticed the better.

Well there's my two cents.

Quote from: James J SkachMan, if this happens, I might have to move to Canada. It's what I always wanted for the US - an impotent virtually non-existent federal government and semi-autonomous self-governing province/states.

Sweet....

Set the way back machine to the halycon days pre-civil war.  The greatest debates between Jefferson and Hamilton (or was it Burr... no Hamilton) was over the power of the Federal government. Jefferson won, natch, and the power of the Fed in the early days of the US was pretty weak.  

No way back machine? Fine, move to Canada, you nanny-stater!

Quote from: HackmastergeneralAnd you overestimate Harper's appeal outside the west..

Quote from: RPGPunditThe Conservatives are unelectable in the east...

Well, given that the party had existed for less than 2 years when the last federal election was held, the Conservatives managed to win 9 seats in Atlantic Canada and 10 in Quebec (the Liberals only won 13 in Quebec).  In Ontario the Tories won 40 seats to the Liberals 54.

Not quite as strong as the Liberals in the east, but hardly 'unelectable'!  And, as far as I can tell, a 'national' party just as much as the Liberals are: whereas the Tories have their main strength in the west, and the Liberals in the east, both parties managed to get people elected across the country.

Quote from: RPGPundit... Its smart, really, that Harper is making filthy little backroom deals with the separatists, he knows that he can't win in Quebec ever, but the Bloc can COST liberals seats in quebec, so on a purely mercenary level it serves his interests for the Bloc to do as well as possible....

Since when is Charest a 'spearatist'?  He leads the Quebec Liberal party, for crying out loud!

Harper isn't 'cutting backroom deals with the separatists'.  He's giving Quebec voters who are not separatists, but who don't like the Liberals, an option.

And the Tories won 10 seats in Quebec in the last election -- almost as many as the Liberals (13 seats).

Quote from: RPGPundit... and the anglo leaders have always performed poorly ...

Like MacKenzie King, the longest serving PM in Canadian history?  Or Lester B. Pearson?  Your grasp of Canadian political history appears to go back to only 1968, when the father of the present Canadian 'nanny-state' appeared on the stage.

For the record, I actually have a lot of respect for the pre-Trudeau Liberal Party.  If only such a party still existed!  I would likely support them with enthusiasm.

Quote from: RPGPundit.... Three out of four years of Canada's history, it has had a liberal government....

The thing is, the traditional dynamics of Canadian political history are no longer in play.  It cannot be assumed that the Liberal Party is still the 'natural' governing party of Canada.

Throughout much of Canadian history, the Liberal party had a near-monopoly on Quebec which helped to ensure their dominance.  However, the emergence of the Bloc has changed that -- since 1993 the Liberals have never captured a majority of seats (and usually far less) in Quebec.

Now this erosion in the Liberal Party's position was concealed during Chretien's time in power because the political right in Canada was divided between the PCs and the Reform/Alliance parties.  This division in the right allowed Chretien to win majority governments with only around 40 percent popular support.  But the Liberals' position in Quebec remained fundamentally weak.

Now that the right is no longer divided, the new reality is beginning to emerge: the Liberals are no longer the de facto 'ruling party' precisely because of the changes in Quebec politics.  The Tories and Liberals have roughly equal support across the country, and both are vying for scraps (10-13 seats each) in Quebec.  The current Quebec Liberal party is an ally of the federal Tories!

One very positive thing about the next election -- irrespective of whether the Tories or Liberals win -- is that the Bloc will be further squeezed.  But, significantly, the Tories look just as likely to pick up seats as the Liberals.