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Author Topic: Election Predictions 2007  (Read 1310 times)

Hastur T. Fannon

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Election Predictions 2007
« Reply #45 on: January 17, 2007, 07:03:10 am »
Quote from: James J Skach
Yup.  I understood when you explained it to me.  Hastur was having a difficult time with the concept, apparently.


I understood it as well, but I think we're talking past each other.  I'll avoid cluttering up this thread any further
 

Akrasia

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« Reply #46 on: January 17, 2007, 09:23:55 am »
Quote from: RPGPundit
... Its the main reason I'm not too worried, frankly, the Reformers are always going to end up shooting themselves in the foot with some outrageous statement in mid-election, and basically sink their own chances. ...


Well, that didn't happen in the last in the last federal election, did it?  I think that you underestimate Harper's shrewdness.  It certainly wouldn't be the first time a Liberal fan did that.

Quote from: RPGPundit
...
You know, its really easy to tell when you're losing an argument, Akrasia.
That's when you start with the ad-hominem attacks accusing your opponent of ignorance ...

:rolleyes:
I'm not losing anything here.  

I just pointed out that your claims about a Tory quasi-theocracy in the event of a majority government revealed a failure to understand how Canadian parliamentary democracy actually works.  I'm sorry if I upset you.

Quote from: RPGPundit
...
In the meantime, they can do all kinds of serious damage to the social fabric and unity of the country.
...


You seem to think that the Tories would go completely insane if they won a majority government and pass all kinds of laws that would almost certainly  either (a.) be struck down by the Supreme Court, or (b.) ensure their complete destruction in the next election.

Sorry, but I find your analysis so implausible that I am astonished that you take it seriously.

The political process in Canada creates strong pressures towards moderation.  It should not be surprising that the Tory platform is far more mainstream than the Reform platform of 10 years ago -- the Tories know that they might actually form (and mantain over time) a majority government.

Quote from: RPGPundit
...
You said that already, so let me repeat my response: If he tries to win Ontario by distancing himself from socially conservatives, the LOSES the west.  
...


He won't 'distance himself' from the so-cons.  Rather, he'll throw them a few bones to keep them happy.  In any case, the so-cons also want greater provincial autonomy, which the Tories will be happy to provide -- thereby appeasing both the Western so-cons and Quebec in one fell swoop!

As I've already said, the so-cons realise now that they have nowhere else to go.  So, as long the Tories do a minimum amount to appease them (e.g. the lame 'free vote' on gay marriage last December), they'll support them federally.

Quote from: RPGPundit
...
because you see, parliamentary democracy the way it works in Canada means precisely that, if a single party gets a majority government, it can do WHATEVER it wants (with its only possible barrier being the supreme court).  It is a 3-5 year dictatorship with virtually none of the checks and balances you see in, say, the U.S....


I am well aware of how parliametnary democracy works in Canada.  

What you fail to realise is that:
(a) Canada has a Supreme Court that strikes down federal legislation (on an alarmingly regular basis);
(b) matters of provincial jurisdiction limit what the federal government can do (especially in a Tory government committed to provincial autonomy); and
(c) governments want to get re-elected, hence they tend to become more 'moderate' once in power.

Obviously, you're committed to the view that the Tories have some kind of 'secret agenda' that they will unleash on unsuspecting Canadians once they gain power.  I find that view laughable, but it is a testament to the Liberals' propagandizing abilities that so many people believe it.
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RPGPundit

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Election Predictions 2007
« Reply #47 on: January 17, 2007, 03:22:11 pm »
Quote from: Akrasia
He won't 'distance himself' from the so-cons.  Rather, he'll throw them a few bones to keep them happy.  In any case, the so-cons also want greater provincial autonomy, which the Tories will be happy to provide -- thereby appeasing both the Western so-cons and Quebec in one fell swoop!

By Balkanizing the country and giving justification to separatist claims. Yeah, that's a great plan that has always historically worked really well for countries that have gone that route.. :rolleyes:

Quote
As I've already said, the so-cons realise now that they have nowhere else to go.  So, as long the Tories do a minimum amount to appease them (e.g. the lame 'free vote' on gay marriage last December), they'll support them federally.

Social conservatives will only take so many non-measures and "free vote" failures before they show massive dis-satisfaction.  This will inevitably lead to the same problems that ended up wiping out the PC party.

Quote
I am well aware of how parliametnary democracy works in Canada.  

What you fail to realise is that:
(a) Canada has a Supreme Court that strikes down federal legislation (on an alarmingly regular basis);
(b) matters of provincial jurisdiction limit what the federal government can do (especially in a Tory government committed to provincial autonomy); and
(c) governments want to get re-elected, hence they tend to become more 'moderate' once in power.

Obviously, you're committed to the view that the Tories have some kind of 'secret agenda' that they will unleash on unsuspecting Canadians once they gain power.  I find that view laughable, but it is a testament to the Liberals' propagandizing abilities that so many people believe it.

I think you grossly underestimate the Social Conservatives (of which Harper is no reluctant fan) and their sense that their desired policies are a moral crusade.  Not to mention their respect for the views and desires of others, regardless of whether those others are a "majority" or not. I'm not saying that they could do anything irreparable (with the sole exception of balkanizing the country, that's where they'd be most dangerous; their desire to impose private healthcare and anti-gay measures in Alberta can easily end up leading to Quebec separation and the collapse of the entire country), but they could easily do a shitload of damage along the way if they have a safe and uncontestable 3-5 years to do so.

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GRIM

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Election Predictions 2007
« Reply #48 on: January 18, 2007, 12:58:55 pm »
Quote from: Balbinus
Re Britain, it's actually pretty unlikely the Tories will win the next election.  It's a question of maths really, New Labour still has a very high majority, so you would need a massive electoral swing.  There is no evidence in the polls for anything like that kind of swing, currently it looks like the Tories will gain ground, but that the next government is highly likely to be New Labour still.

It's the election after the next one the Tories are really aiming at, unless Gordon does something insane it would be quite hard for him to lose the next one.


I'm holding out for a hung parliament so that the liberals can leverage it into electoral reform in favour of PR.

One can hope, after all, it was part of Labour's proposals up until the system started favouring them again. *sigh*.
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Akrasia

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« Reply #49 on: January 18, 2007, 01:12:39 pm »
Quote from: RPGPundit
By Balkanizing the country and giving justification to separatist claims...

The Harper Tories have given no more 'justification to separatist claims' in Quebec than Dion himself (let alone former Liberal leadership candidate Ignatieff, who reignited the whole 'Quebec is a nation' debate!).

Personally, I think that the federal government should respect the constitutional division of powers (something that you -- like most big government, centalising Grits -- oppose for unclear reasons).

Quote from: RPGPundit
...
Social conservatives will only take so many non-measures and "free vote" failures before they show massive dis-satisfaction.  This will inevitably lead to the same problems that ended up wiping out the PC party...

I disagree.  The events that lead to the collapse of the old PC party were historically unique (Western alienation -- a problem that Harper does not have, especially if he keeps emphasizing Senate reform and respect for provincial autonomy -- and Quebec dissatisfaction with the failure of Meech Lake).

Nothing in what you have asserted convinces me that a similar such schism/collapse is likely to occur in the future.

In any case, I think it is likely that the next election will result in another minority government (I predicted a 63 percent overall likelihood in my original post; 40% likely a Tory minority, 23% likely a Liberal minority), so unfortunately I doubt that the alarmist nature of your claims will be approriately falsified in the near future.
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« Reply #50 on: January 19, 2007, 02:09:57 am »
I continue to argue that it will be a Liberal majority government.  we'll see who's right.

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