Quote from: FingerRod on March 17, 2023, 07:42:28 PM
This pains me a little to say, but I do not see the D&D movie tanking. We are two weeks out and there is no review embargo. Sure, the regular shills are piling on their praise, but private citizens who went to early screenings are as well.

Normies do not care about the OGL. Most women would drink Chris Pine's bath water. This is the best time to release a movie, almost two months after a SB and before the weather gets nice for most of the country.

I'm not saying it will be the blockbuster of the year, but it will not be a flop.

Shazam 2 had a budget of 125mil. It opened of 30mil domestically, and it is considered a flop.

It had a big 68% drop off after its opening weekend.

Shazam 2 has only made 120mil in 17 weeks of release.


But, there is an outside chance the "DnD" movie could have legs, so this:

Quote from: GeekyBugle on April 02, 2023, 08:20:32 PM
I'm not saying it is likely or that it isn't, I'm saying the smart money is in waiting to see how much it falls in the second weekend, then you can make an educated guess.

DnD has a 150 mil budget, and opened for 38mil domestically.

IMHO - It is sitting on the edge of breaking even / being a flop.

If it has the typical 60% drop off it will have a tough road to profitability.

And, the Super Mario Bros movie drops next week...


Now I'm not saying that people will not enjoy this film for what it is. But it is a mid level marvel film with fantasy trappings.

So why then does "everyone" in the RPG sphere seem to like the DnD movie?

Because, simply by virtue of not being outright bad like the 2000 film, it is getting a pass on many elements that people wouldn't let slide if it was about Marvel or DC characters.

Evidently people are so happy that it is not as bad as the last film that they have rendered themselves incapable of recognizing castrated mid-level mediocrity; even when it is shoved right in their face...

But normies that have been plagued with more bad than good DC/Marvel films for the past few years have much less of a tolerance for yet another mediocre superhero film.

Quote from: Jaeger on April 03, 2023, 04:16:11 PM
Now I'm not saying that people will not enjoy this film for what it is. But it is a mid level marvel film with fantasy trappings.

So why then does "everyone" in the RPG sphere seem to like the DnD movie?

Because, simply by virtue of not being outright bad like the 2000 film, it is getting a pass on many elements that people wouldn't let slide if it was about Marvel or DC characters.

Evidently people are so happy that it is not as bad as the last film that they have rendered themselves incapable of recognizing castrated mid-level mediocrity; even when it is shoved right in their face...

But normies that have been plagued with more bad than good DC/Marvel films for the past few years have much less of a tolerance for yet another mediocre superhero film.

I have not enjoyed a Marvel or superhero movie in close to a decade. All of them have been on a decline since Ironman.

This was a good movie. And a really smart one taking subtle shots at things we have seen at the table over the years. And it does it without ruining it for people who would not understand the references. From the over-the-top roleplayer, to the look at me guy, to players trying to pound things like speak with the dead into the ground. It takes shots at bards, over-planning, and on and on.

This topic is quickly running its course. I didn't think it would tank/flop, and it hasn't and won't. I also put my dick on the table two weeks before launch. When we have come to the point that we're calling actors like Michelle Rodriguez yoga moms and arguing with people who haven't seen the movie, it gets hard to justify keeping the conversation going.

Quote from: FingerRod on April 03, 2023, 04:53:01 PMI didn't think it would tank/flop, and it hasn't and won't.

You keep saying that this movie didn't flop but have provided no evidence of it's success. Shazam 2 flopped and Honor Among Thieves made a lower percentage of it's budget back during its opening weekend than Shazam 2 did.

Quote from: FingerRod on April 03, 2023, 04:53:01 PM

Quote from: Jaeger on April 03, 2023, 04:16:11 PM
Now I'm not saying that people will not enjoy this film for what it is. But it is a mid level marvel film with fantasy trappings.

So why then does "everyone" in the RPG sphere seem to like the DnD movie?

Because, simply by virtue of not being outright bad like the 2000 film, it is getting a pass on many elements that people wouldn't let slide if it was about Marvel or DC characters.

Evidently people are so happy that it is not as bad as the last film that they have rendered themselves incapable of recognizing castrated mid-level mediocrity; even when it is shoved right in their face...

But normies that have been plagued with more bad than good DC/Marvel films for the past few years have much less of a tolerance for yet another mediocre superhero film.

I have not enjoyed a Marvel or superhero movie in close to a decade. All of them have been on a decline since Ironman.

This was a good movie. And a really smart one taking subtle shots at things we have seen at the table over the years. And it does it without ruining it for people who would not understand the references. From the over-the-top roleplayer, to the look at me guy, to players trying to pound things like speak with the dead into the ground. It takes shots at bards, over-planning, and on and on.

This topic is quickly running its course. I didn't think it would tank/flop, and it hasn't and won't. I also put my dick on the table two weeks before launch. When we have come to the point that we're calling actors like Michelle Rodriguez yoga moms and arguing with people who haven't seen the movie, it gets hard to justify keeping the conversation going.

Personally, I'd say Iron Man 1, Captain America 1-2 (3 is close, but too bogged in outside lore) and the first Avengers film were basically the highpoints of the MCU... everything else has been trying to maintain the hype/momentum. End Game should have absolutely been the conclusion of the grand experiment because they will never top it with general audiences.

George Lucas knew that you maintain fondness for your properties by letting them sit for a decade or so. The endless need for UNLIMITED PROFIT [/Palpatine voice] has essentially cannibalized their IPs and left them hollow shells relying on FX/deepfake gimmicks (Star Wars) and D-list characters (Marvel) because they won't let the damned things just rest.

Just saw it. It was entertaining enough. I'd echo the point about fatherhood (and parenthood in general) being comparatively well handled for a modern movie. Rodriguez plays a far more convincing fighter than Regé-Jean Page. And she was also much less annoying than Sophia Lillis. Casting Lillis as the bigoted tiefling was a stroke of genius.

I'm still not giving my hard earned pesos to Hasbro but The Drinker says it's good and fun.



Might "buy" it when it drops as DVD.

I'm taking a more carrot and stick approach as opposed to all out scorched earth. If they're willing to put out reasonable content from time to time, then I'll buy that, but only that. They seem to be getting the message, slowly but surely.

Quote from: hedgehobbit on April 03, 2023, 05:12:28 PM

Quote from: FingerRod on April 03, 2023, 04:53:01 PMI didn't think it would tank/flop, and it hasn't and won't.

You keep saying that this movie didn't flop but have provided no evidence of it's success. Shazam 2 flopped and Honor Among Thieves made a lower percentage of it's budget back during its opening weekend than Shazam 2 did.

And I will keep saying it because I am right. Michelle Rodriguez is not a yoga mom. This movie is not woke. And it is subjectively entertaining.

The Shazam talk is a distraction. Supers and D&D are different genres. Plus word of mouth, rotten tomatoes, all of it are completely different. The toy merchandising is also an unknown. They have toys, rebranded Monopoly, etc.

Two weeks before launch the word of mouth and early reviews were positive. It was enough to know that it wouldn't flop. Seeing movie with people who aren't hardcore D&D fans is giving me the perspective that it will go beyond simply not being a flop.

I don't see any Oscars. But there will be a sequel. And if you can separate the art from the artist, you might enjoy yourself for a couple hours.

I will buy it when it comes out. Hell, I might go see it again if some of my other friends are interested.

This doesn't mean I don't still hate WotC and Jeremy Crawford. It also doesn't mean that Hasbro's purchase of eOne wasn't laughable.

In a vacuum, this is a good time. 90/93 score supports that. And no, I'm not advocating that any individual goes out to see it. But I am objective enough to know when people will.

Quote from: FingerRod on April 03, 2023, 08:54:59 PMTwo weeks before launch the word of mouth and early reviews were positive. It was enough to know that it wouldn't flop. Seeing movie with people who aren't hardcore D&D fans is giving me the perspective that it will go beyond simply not being a flop.

When people say a movie flopped, they usually mean that it lost money. I've pointed out that this movie needs to make about $400 million to not lose money and that it is rare for a movie, even with good reviews, even with high Rotten Tomatoes scores, to make that much money while opening at less than $40 million.

Just so there isn't any more confusion, how much money do you think this movie will make globally before the end of it's run? And if that number is less than $400 million, then how can you justify the statement that it isn't a flop?

Quote from: hedgehobbit on April 03, 2023, 09:12:13 PM

Quote from: FingerRod on April 03, 2023, 08:54:59 PMTwo weeks before launch the word of mouth and early reviews were positive. It was enough to know that it wouldn't flop. Seeing movie with people who aren't hardcore D&D fans is giving me the perspective that it will go beyond simply not being a flop.

When people say a movie flopped, they usually mean that it lost money. I've pointed out that this movie needs to make about $400 million to not lose money and that it is rare for a movie, even with good reviews, even with high Rotten Tomatoes scores, to make that much money while opening at less than $40 million.

Just so there isn't any more confusion, how much money do you think this movie will make globally before the end of it's run? And if that number is less than $400 million, then how can you justify the statement that it isn't a flop?

450 million to break even, which would mean it didn't made nor lost money, IMHO a fail, but not what people usually call a flop.

Will it reach or surpass that threshold? Who the fuck knows? The smart move is to wait till the second weekend to see how much it dropped from the first, if it is 50% or below it might do well, above 50% it will probably tank.

Quote from: GeekyBugle on April 03, 2023, 10:58:48 PMThe smart move is to wait till the second weekend to see how much it dropped from the first, if it is 50% or below it might do well, above 50% it will probably tank.

Well, the second weekend is over. I was going to make a prediction but if I had, I would be eating crow right now. I thought that the movie would drop 70% or more based on the downgrade of it's first weekend and the fact that Super Mario was taking many of it's screens.

But it dropped 61% which is right in the middle between good and terrible. I still think it will struggle to get to $300 million worldwide which would make it a flop, but I'm not so confident anymore, especially since there aren't any more major releases until May with Guardians of the Galaxy 3.

Turns out lots of gamers want to watch men being emasculated.

Quote from: hedgehobbit on April 10, 2023, 09:47:33 AM

Quote from: GeekyBugle on April 03, 2023, 10:58:48 PMThe smart move is to wait till the second weekend to see how much it dropped from the first, if it is 50% or below it might do well, above 50% it will probably tank.

Well, the second weekend is over. I was going to make a prediction but if I had, I would be eating crow right now. I thought that the movie would drop 70% or more based on the downgrade of it's first weekend and the fact that Super Mario was taking many of it's screens.

But it dropped 61% which is right in the middle between good and terrible. I still think it will struggle to get to $300 million worldwide which would make it a flop, but I'm not so confident anymore, especially since there aren't any more major releases until May with Guardians of the Galaxy 3.

Turns out lots of gamers want to watch men being emasculated.

Didn't it also drop to third place below John Wick?

Edited to add: Yes, yes it did.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Dungeons-and-Dragons-Honor-Among-Thieves-(2023)/Shazam-Fury-of-the-Gods-(2022)/John-Wick-Chapter-4-(2023)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

I'm sad to hear that both D&D: Honor Among Thieves and Shazam! Fury of the Gods are underperforming, as I have heard positive word of mouth on both movies.

I'm not likely to see either in theaters, as my local movie theater closed, and the new theater that was supposed to replace it is still an empty shell.

I'll probably go see Guardians of the Galaxy 3 in theaters, though, as the excellent GOTG Christmas Special has buoyed my faith in that franchise.

Quote from: Lurkndog on April 10, 2023, 01:57:32 PM
I'm sad to hear that both D&D: Honor Among Thieves and Shazam! Fury of the Gods are underperforming, as I have heard positive word of mouth on both movies.

Shazam's failure doesn't bother me because it is part of a much bigger failure started by Warner Brothers themselves.

But people at Hasbro deserve to be fired. Not because the movie was bad, but because nothing we saw onscreen looked like it was worth the $150 million that they spent. And whoever greenlit that budget deserves to be fired because there is no way the D&D brand can support that level of expenditure. Had this movie cost $80-$90 million, it wouldn't be a huge hit, but it would be well on it's way to breaking even or making a small profit. Instead it looks like it will lose $50 million dollars. Imagine what WotC could do with $50 million to spend on OneD&D (or whatever they are calling it now).

Quote from: hedgehobbit on April 10, 2023, 06:16:21 PM

Quote from: Lurkndog on April 10, 2023, 01:57:32 PM
I'm sad to hear that both D&D: Honor Among Thieves and Shazam! Fury of the Gods are underperforming, as I have heard positive word of mouth on both movies.

Shazam's failure doesn't bother me because it is part of a much bigger failure started by Warner Brothers themselves.

But people at Hasbro deserve to be fired. Not because the movie was bad, but because nothing we saw onscreen looked like it was worth the $150 million that they spent. And whoever greenlit that budget deserves to be fired because there is no way the D&D brand can support that level of expenditure. Had this movie cost $80-$90 million, it wouldn't be a huge hit, but it would be well on it's way to breaking even or making a small profit. Instead it looks like it will lose $50 million dollars. Imagine what WotC could do with $50 million to spend on OneD&D (or whatever they are calling it now).

Add more diversity into their development teams?

Honestly, having seen it, the sFX in the D&D movie are weirdly dodgy at times. Some of the special effects are really good, and some just do not look right at all. Very puzzling.