I was watching a documentary on the CBC last night following the path of the poppy harvest and opium trade.  It was quite cool, but what surprised me was that they smuggle the raw opium through Iran.  They have a massive desert border that is tough to guard.  That makes sense, but then how does the dope get from Iran to the rest of the world?  I would have thought that would be much more difficult than bringing it out through Pakistan.

My guess is that it goes up into Russia and from there onto boats.

ah, yes, Russia.  That makes sense. I should have looked at a map.

Most of Afghanistan's Opium makes it to Europe rather than, say, the US or Asia.  Thus taking it west, overland, rather than East and boating it makes a certain logistical sense.  I am vaguely surprised at the Iran angle, though. My understanding of land based logistics through central asia holds that the former soviet republics are best. Border checkpoints are virtually non-existant, cops are so corrupt its better to just outrun them than stop even if you aren't smuggling, and if you can't you just pay them off anyway (you out run them to save money, see... not to avoid getting caught and or killed)... and most of the European land borders are porous as to non-existance...

In Iran, however, they normally kill drug users I thought....


Furthermore: Most of the Opium growth occurs in the northern (and eastern...) regions of Afghanistan. Southwestern Afghanistan is one fuckhell of a desert (wrecked Alexander the Great's army it did...). Probably great for moving around without being seen, but sucks ass for growing the opium, and the logistics of moving large amounts of goods through no-man's land strikes me as unnecessarily risky.

Well that's what surprised me. They did show a skirmish with the Iranian border patrol, who did take all the remaining prisoners back to be executed. Maybe that documentary just depicted one small portion of the overall industry.

Quote from: joewolzMy guess is that it goes up into Russia and from there onto boats.

Actually, though Russia does figure, the main route is thru Turkey and the Balkans. Kosovo has emerged as a major centre for drug (and people) trafficking since the UN took over in the 90s. Amazing coincidence that, on top of the fact that Afghan poppy cultivation, shut down by the Taliban, has blossomed again into the world's major source of opiates since 2001.

Here's a website I've found to be pretty good on this subject:

http://www.pa-chouvy.org/territoiresopium.htm#cartes

The_Shadow is spot on regarding the Turkey route. There is a Russian connection though for smaller amounts of opium that go out through the north of Afghanistan into Tajikistan (This route is for opium produced in the north).

Quote from: The_ShadowAmazing coincidence that, on top of the fact that Afghan poppy cultivation, shut down by the Taliban, has blossomed again into the world's major source of opiates since 2001.

Are you a European by chance?

I'm curious because this is a funny sort of algebra to bring up.  Amazingly, a totalitarian regime based on extreme religious radicalism with the tendency to brutally murder everyone they disagreed with was better at keeping 'criminal' activities... such as drug growing and exporting... much lower than a more progressive democratic regime with a much weaker grasp of rural territory and a tendency to NOT commit atrocity...

Since Europe is the unfortunate recipient of all that opium, they are naturally upset at the resurgent drug trade out of Afghanistan. It is short sighted however to pine for the old Taliban regime, as the nation becomes more organized, settled, and even (hopefully...) financially secure, the pressure to grow Opium over regular crops will be lessened. However, an unrepentent Islamist state with an extreme fetish for destroying 'infidel' is a much less tolerable neighbor in the long run.

Quote from: SpikeHowever, an unrepentent Islamist state with an extreme fetish for destroying 'infidel' is a much less tolerable neighbor in the long run.

Also, sucks worse for the people living there.  

I do think, though, that the failure of the occupying NATO forces to keep the lid on opium production in Afghanistan (and the Taliban's pretty amazing success) is a telling indicator of why occupation there might never succeed: lack of intel, lack of proper respect for the landscape and local social/political structures, etc.

Quote from: walkerpI do think, though, that the failure of the occupying NATO forces to keep the lid on opium production in Afghanistan (and the Taliban's pretty amazing success) is a telling indicator of why occupation there might never succeed: lack of intel, lack of proper respect for the landscape and local social/political structures, etc.

Did you not read my last post?

The success of the Taliban had more to do with their ability to make unilateral decisions (totalitarian state) and their willingness to commit atrocity (human rights violations) to achieve it than anything else.

The NATO forces could have the exact same success level if they made every policy decision for the Karzai Government and butchered every opium grower they saw, burned every field with the people in it. Hell with the technology available to us to find poppy fields we could probably do it BETTER.

Our failure is not a lack of ability, its basic human decency.

Quote from: SpikeOur failure is not a lack of ability, its basic human decency.

I'm speechless.  You always seemed so intelligent.  While our values compared to the Taliban's certainly are a factor, there is a whole shitload of incompetence and ideology that is also getting in the way of doing a good job in Afghanistan.  Plus the fact that it is just a holy bitch for any western super power to succeed in that region since ever.

Walkerp, I'm going to assume you don't know that I have spent time in Afghanistan and am fully cogent of the nature of the war on Opium as it stand in that region.

To begin with the 5000 or so foreign soldiers aren't even approaching the level of an occupying force for a single city, much less a nation.  The NATO forces have a standing policy NOT to burn poppy fields but to turn them over to the Afghanistan police force to handle the issue. Why? Because we are there at Karzai's request, not to force our standards on them.

Afghanistan, taken alone, does not have an 'Opium Problem'. Afghans, as a general rule, do not do drugs.  The Poppy growers do no own the fields they work, and from a legal standpoint (which, with our 'human decency' behavior, we can't just overturn their properly laws on a whim), its almost impossible to determine just who DOES own the various fields. Further, they also are not particularly profiting from opium either. They earn near subsitance paychecks from organized criminals (often in government) who will kill them if they refuse.

Compounding the problem that we are trying to convince the Afghanistan government that 'our' problems (Europe's) is THEIR problem, you have to deal with a political system that has such endemic corruption and graft that quite often the regional governers are the ones raking in the profits even as they tell Kabul they're doing their best.

Now, let me adress your specific charges:

Incompetence: At what? Running Afghanistan for the Afghanistani?  We are currently there at the sufference (request, but still the same...) of Karzai's government. We, quite explicitly, ARE NOT running the country. That does put some serious dampeners on what we can, and can not do to stamp out Poppy growth.  That's not incompetence. In fact, doing everything we could to stamp out opium production would earn us more of the same shit you in particular, and the world in general, spew regarding our behavior in Iraq.  

Ideology: You got us. Yup, we actually believe that the nation of Afghanistan deserves to make its own rules regarding our military forces in their country. In fact, we also have this strange ideology that is based on not murdering every man jack who does something we don't like just because we have the guns.   Its that same ideology that is keeping us from converting the Afghans to christianity at gunpoint. Its the same ideology that is keeping us from demanding tribute from the Karzai government in return for not stomping his vinyards flat. Its that same ideology that keeps us from taking over the Opium production ourselves and using the opium trade to bring the rest of the world to its knees so we can force one sided trade agreements on them.

So, if we wanted to rule by the fist, and ignored the wishes of a sovereign nation, and if we didn't mind getting our hands bloody with mass executions, yeah we COULD be doing a 'good job in Afghanistan'.

Quote from: SpikeAre you a European by chance?

I'm curious because this is a funny sort of algebra to bring up.  Amazingly, a totalitarian regime based on extreme religious radicalism with the tendency to brutally murder everyone they disagreed with was better at keeping 'criminal' activities... such as drug growing and exporting... much lower than a more progressive democratic regime with a much weaker grasp of rural territory and a tendency to NOT commit atrocity...

Since Europe is the unfortunate recipient of all that opium, they are naturally upset at the resurgent drug trade out of Afghanistan. It is short sighted however to pine for the old Taliban regime, as the nation becomes more organized, settled, and even (hopefully...) financially secure, the pressure to grow Opium over regular crops will be lessened. However, an unrepentent Islamist state with an extreme fetish for destroying 'infidel' is a much less tolerable neighbor in the long run.

Actually, I'm not European, and my previous post pointed the finger at the corrupt and heavily European NATO regime in Kosovo which has made it one of the world's drug trans-shipping hubs. As for the US in Afghanistan, it's been about as successful in the drug war there as in three decades in Latin America.

As a wise man said, if something seems to be chronically fucked up, think about who benefits from it staying that way.

Quote from: SpikeFurthermore: Most of the Opium growth occurs in the northern (and eastern...) regions of Afghanistan. Southwestern Afghanistan is one fuckhell of a desert (wrecked Alexander the Great's army it did...). Probably great for moving around without being seen, but sucks ass for growing the opium, and the logistics of moving large amounts of goods through no-man's land strikes me as unnecessarily risky.

I have to disagree with this statement. Most of the opium in Afghanistan comes out of the south, such as Helmand Province, which is clearly southern Afghanistan. See:
//www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan-Opium-Survey-2007.pdf

The proximity of Iran to Southern Afghanistan is one of the reasons why so much opium goes out that way.  The numbers are very difficult to obtain. It's all educated guesswork when it comes down to it- due to lack of data.  Many analysts believe that while a lot of opium goes out through Iran, most of the heroin produced in Afghanistan labs still goes out through Pakistan.

Also, there are far more than 5,000 soldiers there, there are 65,000 troops, 34,000 of them American. See: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/19/asia/taliban.php

That said, I agree with Walkerp's that there has been mismanagement and a major unification of command/effort issue. It's not all doom and gloom though. There has been mixed success in building the state's capacity (localized success like in Khost), but there's still a very long way to go. I'm pessimistic because I don't think the money or the political will of the international community will last long enough to affect long-term change.

Regarding opium: The Taliban in 2001 had a lot more coercive power than the Karzai regime does now. Therefore, they were able to enforce the "don't grow opium decree" in 2001, where the current regime cannot.  I believe the U.S. and ISAF/NATO forces are correct in not targeting opium at this point in time. Without crop alternatives or alternate form of livelihood alternatives, you'd just drive angry farmers into the arms of the insurgents. Also, the Taliban have alternate forms of capital, but there are signs that the percentage of their revenue derived from opium is growing.

Spike, thanks for that interesting overview.  I'll pull back on the incompetence charge, just because I don't know enough about it.  As for ideology, there are two major ideological factors that are inhibiting success in Afghanistan.  One is that we went in there for the wrong reasons and two is that we refuse to negotiate with the Taliban.

I'm not actually arguing that we should be trying to eradicate poppy production.  As you say, those farmers are basically subsistence farmers who make out a little bit better with a cash crop.  The demand fault is our own.